Baseball Prospectus || Transaction Analysis: Segura-phobia (Feb. 1, 2016)

The Baseball Prospectus staff, led by Rian Watt (@rianwatt) and BP Milwaukee’s own Ryan Romano (@triple_r_) broke down last weekend’s trade between Milwaukee and Arizona, which sent shortstop Jean Segura and right-hander Tyler Wagner to Arizona for infielder Aaron Hill, righty Chase Anderson and infield prospect Isan Diaz. The BP mothership has some of the best analysis of major trades available on the web and it’s FREE, so make sure you check it out if you haven’t already. Watt, also found at BP Wrigleyville, provides the bulk of the analysis from the Arizona side, while Romano talks about the impact the two major leagues the Brewers got in the trade could have this season. Bret Sayre (@fantasyguru) also analyzes the trade from a fantasy perspective for both sides.

FanGraphs || The Brewers’ Quiet Upside Play (Feb. 1, 2016)

Heard enough about the Brewers’ trade this weekend? No? Of course not. Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) offers his take on the deal, in which he praises Milwaukee for acquiring perhaps the least-talked-about player in the deal, Anderson. While many have discussed the potential of Diaz to offer long-term value to Milwaukee in this trade, Sullivan discusses the underrated potential of Anderson, who lacks the upside of a front-line starter but could absolutely provide value to the Brewers as a mid-to-back of the rotation starter for the next several years and might very well be a part of the next competitive Brewers team.

SB Nation || The teams built to win now, and the teams built to win later around baseball (Feb. 2, 2016) 

Grant Brisbee (@mccoveychron), noted creator of good #content and devotee of extra-long headlines, throws every team on his X-Y graph of “nope-should contend” and “window shutting-window opening.” Milwaukee is all the way over the the left on the X-axis, perhaps underestimating their chances this year a tiny bit — while they’re certainly not in a position to compete for a playoff spot in 2016, they should be better than last year and I don’t expect them to be a bottom-five team again. Brisbee also places the Brewers just to wrong side of the window closing/opening Y-axis, which I quibble with, now that Milwaukee’s farm system ranks among the league’s best. Brisbee places a stronger emphasis on major-league ready talent, however, which isn’t necessarily an incorrect take, since none of Milwaukee’s top prospects are slated for starting jobs on Opening Day.

Brew Crew Ball || Matt Garza and the $13 million shutdown (Feb. 4, 2016) 

Pinch hitting over at Brew Crew Ball, Kyle Lobner (@BrewFrostyMug) talks about one of the wrinkles in Matt Garza’s complicated deal that might have been the cause of the divide that widened between the 32-year-old hurler and the franchise. Click on over to Lobner’s article for the full rundown, but the tl;dr is that Garza has some serious ground to make up over the next two years to see the full value of his potentially $13 million option in 2018. When the issue of finances comes up the blame from the fans almost always falls squarely on the player for being selfish, but baseball is a business just like any other, and the owners are certainly not struggling to put food on their tables. While Garza’s performance certainly merited a demotion to the bullpen last year, if he believed that his contract situation played into the decision to pull him from the rotation, it’s not hard to understand why he was so upset — the five starts he missed down the stretch in 2015 could be monumental in determining the value of his option.

LHP Nick Additon:  5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K — 5.33 ERA
RHP Jim Henderson:  (W, 1-1) 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 4.34 ERA
LF Matt Clark:  1-for-5, HR (14), 2 RBI, BB, R — .263 AVG
1B Jason Rogers:  1-for-5, BB, R, K — .324 AVG

RHP Josh Roenicke:  (L, 5-8) 4.0 IP, 14 H, 11 R (6 ER), 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HR — 5.38 ERA
RHP Tim Dillard:  4.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K — 5.67 ERA
RF Michael Reed:  3-for-3, 2 2B, 3B, 4 RBI, BB, R — 1.000 AVG
3B Matt Dominguez:  3-for-5, 2B, RBI, 2 R, K — .251 AVG
2B Luis Sardinas:  2-for-5, 2B, 2 R — .256 AVG

RHP Tyler Cravy:  (L, 7-7) 5.0 IP, 10 H, 7 R (6 ER), 3 BB, 1 K — 3.97 ERA
RHP Rob Wooten:  1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 5.60 ERA
RF Domingo Santana:  2-for-5, 2B, 2 RBI, R, K — .321 AVG
SS Luis Sardinas:  3-for-5, SB (10), 2 R, K — .263 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers: (17-18), 5.0 GB

RHP Tyler Wagner:  (W, 8-5) 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K — 2.38 ERA
CF Tyrone Taylor:  2-for-3, SB (8), R — .265 AVG
3B Nathan Orf:  1-for-3, 2 RBI — .265 AVG

LHP Hobbs Johnson:  4.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K — 3.35 ERA
RHP Yhonathan Barrios:  (S, 2) 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 0.00 ERA
SS Orlando Arcia:  3-for-3, BB, 2 SB (17), R — .300 AVG
3B Nathan Orf:  2-for-3, 2B, 2 R — .269 AVG

RHP Jorge Lopez:  (W, 10-4) 8.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K — 2.52 ERA
RHP Damien Magnifico:  (S, 13) 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 1.35 ERA
SS Orlando Arcia:  2-for-4, 2B — .302 AVG
1B Nick Ramirez:  2-for-2, 2 BB, R — .262 AVG

LHP Brent Suter:  5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K — 1.95 ERA
RHP Jacob Barnes:  (L, 3-5) 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K — 3.56 ERA
SS Orlando Arcia:  1-for-4, RBI, SB (18), R, K — .302 AVG
CF Brett Phillips:  2-for-3, K — .286 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (16-19), 5.5 GB

Game postponed on Friday due to rain.

RHP Cy Sneed:  (W, 3-1) 5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K — 3.09 ERA
RHP Kaleb Earls:  (S, 5) 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K — 3.08 ERA
CF Omar Garcia:  2-for-3, RBI, SB (40), R, K — .258 AVG
2B Chris McFarland:  2-for-4, RBI, R — .276 AVG

LHP Zach Hirsch:  (L, 1-2) 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR — 4.24 ERA
SS Angel Ortega:  2-for-3, 2B, RBI — .213 AVG
3B Steven Halcomb:  2-for-2, BB, R — .183 AVG

LHP Wei-Chung Wang:  (W, 8-3) 7.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R (1 ER), 3 BB, 5 K — 3.80 ERA
RHP Preston Gainey:  (S, 5) 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K — 2.55 ERA
RF Clint Coulter:  2-for-3, 2 RBI, 2 BB, R, K — .249 AVG
1B Taylor Brennan:  2-for-5, 2B, RBI, K — .249 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (13-23), 14.5 GB

RHP Angel Ventura:  (L, 5-5) 5.0 IP, 6 H, 5 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 7 K, 1 HR — 3.20 ERA
LHP Kodi Medeiros:  2.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 4.09 ERA
1B Alan Sharkey:  2-for-3, RBI, BB, K — .247 AVG
SS Blake Allemand:  1-for-5, 2B, R — .225 AVG

LHP David Carver:  (L, 1-2) 5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 1 K — 5.51 ERA
RHP Josh Uhen:  1.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 5.40 ERA
C Carlos Leal:  2-for-4, 2 K — .318 AVG

RHP David Burkhalter:  (L, 3-7) 3.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR — 5.09 ERA
RHP Cody Ponce:  2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 1 K — 1.29 ERA
C Carlos Leal:  3-for-4, R, K — .324 AVG

Helena Brewers: (2-4), 2.0 GB

RHP Jordan Yamamoto:  7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K — 6.60 ERA
RHP Junior Rincon:  (L, 2-4) 0.2 IP, 1 H, 6 R (3 ER), 2 BB, 0 K — 8.25 ERA
3B Jose Cuas:  1-for-5, HR (3), 2 RBI, R, K — .234 AVG
LF Troy Stokes:  1-for-3, HR (4), 2 RBI, SB (13), R, K — .239 AVG

RHP Alex Farina:  4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR — 3.00 ERA
RHP Bubba Blau:  (L, 2-4) 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 1 K — 8.24 ERA
CF Troy Stokes:  2-for-4, RBI, BB, K — .248 AVG
RF Carlos Belonis:  3-for-4, 2B, R, K — .224 AVG

LHP Jake Drossner:  (W, 2-1) 5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K — 3.81 ERA
RHP Junior Rincon:  (S, 3) 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 8.03 ERA
SS Jake Gatewood:  3-for-4, HR (5), RBI, BB, 2 R, K — .245 AVG
3B Steven Karkenny:  1-for-4, HR (6), RBI, R — .255 AVG

AZL Brewers: (5-2), — GB

Game postponed on Friday due to rain.

RHP Nash Walters:  2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 4.02 ERA
LHP Jarret Martin:  (W, 1-1) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 22.50 ERA
RHP Miguel Diaz:  2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K — 0.00 ERA
SS Gilbert Lara:  1-for-3, 2B, RBI, R, K — .279 AVG
CF Trent Clark:  1-for-3, 2B, SB (10), K — .307 AVG

RHP David Lucroy:  (L, 3-2) 2.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K — 6.08 ERA
1B Tyrone Perry:  2-for-4, HR (2), RBI, R — .282 AVG
2B Jorge Quiterio:  1-for-2, HR (1), 2 RBI, R — .265 AVG

RHP Michael Petersen:  3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 0.00 ERA
RHP Karsen Lindell:  (L, 0-2) 2.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HR — 4.85 ERA
LF Demi Orimoloye:  2-for-4, SB (15), R — .291 AVG
3B Beau Wallace:  2-for-4, RBI, SB (5), 2 K — .290 AVG

DSL Brewers: (23-31), 14.0 GB

RHP Wuilder Rodriguez:  (L, 2-1) 5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 3 K — 2.82 ERA
RF Yerison Pena:  1-for-3, 2B, K — .350 AVG

RHP Carlos Luna:  (W, 4-2) 7.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 6 K — 1.05 ERA
RF Anderson Jesus:  2-for-4, 2 2B, RBI, 2 K — .277 AVG
LF Henry Correa:  2-for-4, 2B, RBI, R, 2 K — .143 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  RHP Tyler Wagner, Biloxi

Right-hander Tyler Wagner has been one of the more pleasant pitching surprises in the Brewers’ organization in 2015. Not that he didn’t find success a year ago — he posted a 1.86 ERA for High-A Brevard County — but it’s more that he has taken another step forward and has shown growth in Double-A. It’s the most difficult jump in the minors. Wagner has navigated the difficult terrain flawlessly. In fact, the 24-year-old hurler compiled a 2.25 ERA in July, including a stellar complete-game shutout on Friday.

Wagner’s peripherals have improved, too. His strikeout rate has increased every month, from 5.7 K/9 in April to 8.6 K/9 in July. His WHIP has dropped to 1.08, which is the lowest mark of the season. Almost no matter which way one dissects the numbers, Wagner has impressed.

The Brewers hope that he can become a back-end starter at the major league level. His repertoire and underlying numbers, though, suggest that lefties could be a problem. They’re only hitting .253/.320/.313 against him in Double-A. However, he only has a 13.7 percent strikeout rate against lefties, which starkly contrasts his 24.0 percent strikeout rate against righties. It reflects a true out-pitch against left-handed hitters, as the changeup isn’t as advanced as it needs to be. At the very least, Wagner should be an effective reliever at the big league level, with his sinker-slider combination giving righties fits. He’d likely return to the mid-90s with his fastball, too. The Brewers will continue to groom him as a starter, but he still has obstacles to overcome.

RHP Josh Roenicke:  (L, 4-5) 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K — 4.75 ERA
RHP Jaye Chapman:  1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 1.50 ERA
DH Elian Herrera:  3-for-4, 3 1B — .411 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers: (4-2), — GB

RHP Tyler Wagner:  8.0 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR — 2.31 ERA
LHP Mike Strong:  (W, 3-0) 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 2.68 ERA
3B Nathan Orf:  2-for-4, 2 2B, R — .277 AVG
SS Orlando Arcia:  2-for-4, RBI — .311 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (3-3), 2.5 GB

RHP Javier Salas:  (W, 7-4) 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K — 2.84 ERA
RHP Kaleb Earls:  (S, 2) 3.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 3.60 ERA
1B Taylor Brennan:  3-for-5, 2B, HR (2), 4 RBI, 2 R — .252 AVG
C Rafael Neda:  3-for-4, 3B, HR (2), 3 RBI, BB, 3 R — .213 AVG
RF Clint Coulter:  3-for-4, 3 2B, RBI, BB, 2 R, K — .261 AVG
DH Cameron Garfield:  2-for-4, HR (2), RBI, 2 R, 2 K — .239 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (2-5), 4.0 GB

LHP Zach Hirsch:  6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 5 K — 2.98 ERA
RHP Gian Rizzo:  2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K — 4.38 ERA
RHP Scott Lieser:  (L, 0-2) 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 6.75 ERA
CF Brandon Diaz:  2-for-3, 2 2B, RBI, BB — .230 AVG
3B Dustin DeMuth:  2-for-4, 2B, K — .277 AVG

Helena Brewers: (5-8), 3.5 GB

LHP Jake Drossner:  2.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K — 9.00 ERA
RHP Joshua Torres:  (W, 2-0) 3.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K — 6.00 ERA
2B George Iskenderian:  2-for-5, HR (1), 5 RBI, R, K — .286 AVG
LF Troy Stokes:  3-for-4, HR (3), 2 RBI, BB, 3 R — .389 AVG

AZL Brewers: (4-6), 2.0 GB

(AZL Dodgers had a combined perfect game with two outs in the ninth inning.)

RHP Derek Eitel:  (L, 0-1) 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 4.50 ERA
RHP David Lucroy:  4.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 7 K — 3.52 ERA
2B Daniel Leonardo:  1-for-3, 1B — .308 AVG

DSL Brewers: (10-17), 10.0 GB

RHP Rodrigo Benoit:  6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 7 K — 2.92 ERA
RHP Jesus Brea:  (W, 1-1) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 0.00 ERA
2B Julio Mendez:  3-for-5, 2 RBI — .235 AVG
CF Marcos Pinero:  1-for-2, RBI, 2 BB, 2 SB (3), K — .227 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  RHP Tyler Wagner, Biloxi

Wagner tossed a gem on Wednesday evening for Double-A Biloxi, only surrendering a single run over eight innings of work. He struck out three and walked no one. It ultimately became a ground-ball fest for his opponent, the Mississippi Braves, as Wagner induced 12 groundout to only three flyouts — which represents his strategy on the mound. Throw strikes, limit walks, get ground balls. Pitching doesn’t seem so difficult when described in that manner.

The Brewers got a brief glimpse of Wagner at the big-league level earlier this year, so his repertoire isn’t a mystery to most fans. He’s a standard ground-ball specialist, throwing a sinker and slider with the occasional show-me changeup. That’s a back-end profile, at best, but Wagner has shown solid command throughout his minor-league career, which gives him a legitimate chance to hang onto the back-end of a rotation. He does, however, have the typical problem that plagues sinker-ballers — hints of future platoon issues. Lefties are only hitting .248, but the underlying numbers show a stark difference in the level of success.

Largely, this underlying platoon split stems from his lack of a quality changeup, as he’s forced to attack opposite-handed batters with his sinker-slider combination. Wagner has experienced difficulty in consistently retiring lefties in Double-A. That limitation will only be exacerbated further in the majors. This is why, despite the sterling 2.31 ERA, Wagner only profiles as a back-end starter, unless something unexpectedly changes with his arsenal.