Milwaukee added some potential high-impact talent to a minor league system that is now rated as the best in baseball according to at least one outlet. Here are Baseball Prospectus scouting reports on the newest future Brewers.

Rangers Trade Return:

CF Lewis Brinson
6’3″ || 195 lb || B/T: R/R || Age: 22

Hit: 55 || Power: 55 || Speed: 60 || Arm: 60 || Glove: 70 ||

Future Role: 60 – first division starting center fielder

Report: There’s the potential for five above-average tools, which wasn’t the case in 2014. He now shows a shorter stroke capable of hard contact to all parts of the field, along with a more advanced approach. There’s always been plus raw power, and that pop shows up in games thanks to his strong wrists and his ability to use the lower half to create leverage. If there’s a concern offensively it’s that he still gets pull-happy, and while the strikeout rates have dropped each year, this is still the type of player who is going to swing and miss. A lot.

Brinson’s offense hasn’t caught up to the defense, but that’s a compliment to the glove rather than an insult to the bat. His plus speed helps him get to pretty much everything in center field. He has the type of arm strength you’d love to see in your right fielder, and swoon for when you see that it plays in center.

There were only a handful of players more impressive than Brinson in the Arizona Fall League, and it helped confirm what those who saw him all year had been saying. Even with the strikeouts, this is player who can impact the game in essentially every realistic way you could ask for.  – Chris Crawford

2016 Statistics:

AA Frisco – 326 PA, .236 TAv || .237/.280/.431 || 11 HR || 11 SB || 19.6 percent K || 5.2 percent BB
AAA Colorado Springs – 13 PA, .585 TAv || .615/.615/.923 || 1 HR || 2 SB|| 15.4 percent K || 0 percent BB

RHP Luis Ortiz
6’3″ || 230 lbs || B/T: R/R || Age: 20

Fastball: 65 || Slider: 60 || Changeup: 45 || Command: 55

Future Role: 60 – #3 starting pitcher

Report: Not only do some prefer Ortiz over (Dillon) Tate, but there are those who believe Ortiz has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the (Rangers’) system. He gets his fastball into the mid 90s consistently from an easy arm action, sitting 93-95. The slider is his go-to out pitch. It doesn’t have as much depth as Tate’s, but it has more deception because the tilt comes so late. The only thing keeping him from projecting as a frontline starter right now is the lack of a quality third pitch, as both his curveball and change are closer to 40 than 50. Even without an average third offering, he has a chance to start because the command is so advanced. He repeats his delivery as well as you can expect a teenager to repeat things, and he not only throws strikes with all four pitches, he locates them to any part of the plate.

The concerns with Ortiz don’t come from stuff or an inability to throw strikes, but whether or not he’ll be able to hold up during a season. He’s burly—to put it nicely—and he’s missed time in each of the past two years, ending his 2015 season with elbow tendinitis. If he can stay healthy and keep the weight in check, he could be an innings-eater who misses bats, but there’s more volatility here than the stuff might suggest.  – Chris Crawford

2016 Statistics:

A+ High Desert – 27.2 IP, .216 TAv || 2.60 ERA || 4.20 FIP || 25.5 percent K || 5.5 percent BB || 51 percent GB
AA Frisco – 39.2 IP, .256 TAv || 4.08 ERA || 3.32 FIP || 19.5 percent K || 4.0 percent  BB || 47 percent GB

(Note: Player to be named later won’t be announced until after the completion of the minor league season.)

Giants trade:

RHP Phil Bickford
6’4″ || 200 lbs || B/T: R/R || Age: 20

Fastball: 65/70 || Slider: 50 || Changeup: 40 || Command: 50

Future Role: 45 – back end starter/high-leverage reliever

Report: Bickford’s stuff profiles best in a late-innings relief role. He has the body and arm to work multiple times through a lineup, and he features a deceptive fastball with late life up that generates swings and misses, but he lacks a third pitch and struggles commanding within the zone. His slider can change multiple grades from one start to the next but is something that can be masked in short stints. Bickford’s best-case scenario is a two-pitch starter with a back-end rotation spot. A high-leverage reliever is the safe bet.  -David Lee

Report: Bickford’s arm strength is elite, and when he’s working in short spurts, he’ll touch the high 90s with a four-seam fastball that has late life. His slider is maddeningly inconsistent; he struggles to repeat his three-quarters arm slot, and it will vary from a 40 pitch that he can’t locate to a 60 with hard tilt. The change is very much a work in progress, and like the slider its grade varies wildly from appearance to appearance. The control is ahead of the command, but he does a good enough job filling the strike zone that he should be able to start. However, because the stuff is so much better in shorter outings, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he ends up making his living as a reliever.  – Chris Crawford

2016 Statistics:

A Augusta – 60.0 IP, .233 TAv || 2.70 ERA || 2.44 FIP || 28.3 percent K || 6.1 percent  BB || 34 percent GB
A+ San Jose – 33.0 IP, .214 TAv || 2.73 ERA || 3.97 FIP || 27.9 percent K || 9.3 percent BB || 35 percent GB

C Andrew Susac
6’1″ || 215 lbs || B/T: R/R || Age: 26

Hit: 50 || Power: 60 || Speed: 30 || Arm: 55 || Glove: 50

Future Role: 55 – above-average MLB starting catcher

Report: Advanced approach with good feel for zone; solid plus power plays in game at present; good strength; balanced swing stays on plane and allows for hard contact pole to pole; natural backspin and carry; improving actions behind the plate; capable defender who could refine to average overall producer with glove; above-average arm with solid release and accuracy. Average bat speed and coverage holes; can be beat by sequencing and elevated heat; danger that overexposure at big-league level will eat into contact and power utility once book gets out; well below-average runner; likely tops out as average defender.  – Nick J. Faleris

Fantasy Impact: Given a full complement of at-bats, Susac could hit .260 with 20 homers, making him a potential top-10 catcher.  – Bret Sayre

MLB Career Statistics (2014-15):

San Francisco – 243 PA, .268 TAv, -1.3 FRAA || .240/.309/.407 || 6 HR || 0 SB || 29.2 percent K || 8.6 percent BB

2016 Statistics:

AAA Sacramento – 239 PA, .302 TAv || .273/.343/.455 || 8 HR || 0 SB || 18.8 percent  K || 10 percent BB
AAA Colorado Springs – 9 PA, .030 TAv || .111/.111/.111 || 0 HR || 0 SB || 33.3 percent  K || 0 percent BB

This isn’t a new phenomenon. In the offseason a couple of trades involving relief pitchers had the internet shaking their heads. Those were the Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles trades. (Kimbrel was sent from the Red Sox to the Padres for Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Logan Allen, and Carlos Asuaje. Giles and Jonathan Arauz were sent from the Phillies to the Astros for Vincent Valasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Thomas Eshelman, Mark Appel, and Harold Arauz.)

Not only were these trades weird, for some they were unfathomable, especially by the Astros. The Red Sox had just hired Dave Dombrowski, who’s garnered quite the reputation for trading his prospects. Luhnow is the antithesis of that narrative. He’s the young and progressive GM: the one with the huge database, the one who knows that relievers aren’t that valuable. Yet, Luhnow paid a hefty price for Giles.

Some, therefore, started suggesting that there was a divide between the way front office members and we the public value relievers, also noting that WAR may not be the best measurement of the trade. Russell Carleton wrote about this in an article entitled, “The Kimbrel Gambit”. Carleton stated that WPA was a better way to evaluate relief pitchers.

Then the 2016 trade deadline arrived and, as a number of people noted, the reliever market was nearly unbelievable. Deals for Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Andrew Miller were all seen as overpays. I mean, Miller was traded for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller, and J.P. Feyereisen. A huge haul, but perhaps most surprising is that the Indians gave up a bigger hall to get Miller than the one for Lucroy.

Sure is something when teams have to pay more for elite relievers than elite catchers.

— J.P. Breen (@JP_Breen) July 31, 2016

Now, Lucroy ended up vetoing the deal, but it was still surprising and befuddling to see this.

All of this culminated into the idea that there is a disconnect between the way the public and the front office values relief pitchers.

I'm not even really disagreeing that the price for relievers seems really high. I'm just saying it's pretty clear there's a disconnect here.

— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) July 29, 2016

But does this make sense? More precisely, does it make sense that we are basically re-thinking the way we evaluate relief pitchers based on trades?

The answer to this is not entirely. Yes, if teams didn’t think relievers had some value, then they probably wouldn’t trade valuable assets for them. WAR, as Carleton demonstrated, is also probably not the best way to evaluate relief pitchers. Each team also has their own analytics department, and it’s very possible that they have different and better metrics to value relievers.

But, the biggest problem is that we are only looking at one element in these trades, and that is the value of the relief pitcher.

The reason, a number of people get befuddled by these trades is because of the return. But, maybe we need to reevaluate the value of the return. In all of these takes and analysis, no one has stopped to ponder on the value of prospects. Maybe it’s not that relievers are netting necessarily a higher return, but that prospects in general aren’t being valued as highly. More precisely, over the past year, teams seem to have been more willing to part with their prospects. It’s possible that teams, in general, are realizing that holding onto prospects is a risky proposition. This can work out very favorably, but can also bite you in the butt especially if the prospects don’t work out.

Let’s use the Red Sox as an example. When Ben Cherington was in charge, the media went after him hard for his unwillingness to part with his prospects. And, in some cases, Cherington was right: just look at Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Mookie Betts. These three prospects swarmed the baseball sphere in trade rumors, but they became very valuable pieces to this year’s team.

Then, however, there’s the other side. The Red Sox held onto prospects such as Deven Marrero, Henry Owens, Brandon Workman, Allen Webster, Garin Cecchini, and more. None of these players worked out, at least not as they’d hoped, and basically went from highly touted prospects to busts who don’t have a lot of value. This is basically the risk.

It highlights that for teams who are looking to acquire big league talent, it’s not necessarily about keeping or trading prospects, but knowing which prospects to trade. Knowing that you should hold onto Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley, but at the same time, know to trading Webster, Cecchini, Owens etc. Maybe teams are starting to figure that out, which is why we are seeing more prospects being traded.

Changing the way we value relief pitchers based on trades also ignores the market. If we simply assume that since relievers are garnering a greater return than before, then relief pitchers are more valuable than before, then we must assume that Andrew Miller is, in fact, more valuable than Jonathan Lucroy. The Indians traded for both players, and in many scout’s eyes, the return for Miller was better than the one for Lucroy.

But, this ignores the external factors of these deals. The market for relief pitchers seemed absurd because many teams needed pitching. In fact, every contending team needed pitching. That’s the thing about trading pitchers. It’s that no matter the market, teams can always use more pitching because there are twelve pitchers on a team compared to only two catchers. Lucroy might not have provided a big upgrade for some contending teams, but Andrew Miller would have provided a big upgrade for every team. Because at the end of the day, Miller is much better than the twelfth best pitcher on your team. While Lucroy isn’t necessarily that much better than the best catcher on your team.

The Brewers also seemed to have more urgency than the Yankees. Even after the deal fell through Rosenthal wrote, “Oh, he will be traded, most likely to the Rangers, a team that can acquire him without his permission.” The Brewers could have kept Lucroy until the offseason, but that would have hampered his value. The Yankees on the other hand were in no rush to trade Miller. Meaning that they could sit back and wait until a team met their price. The Yankees could be irrational with their demands, while the Brewers had to be more reasonable.

Finally, we assume that the people making these deals are acting like rational beings when in reality emotion and competitiveness play a factor. The deal for Chapman was probably an overpay. But, the Cubs haven’t won the World Series in more than 100 years. No living member of the organization has seen a Cubs World Series and this might be their best chance. The Cubs decided to give up some of the future, future that is unknown, to improve the one spot that needed to be improved, the closer role. Some of the Cubs front office members won’t be there when Torres reaches the majors. Some of them won’t be there next year. The Cubs move, while being an overpay, was done to win now because the Cubs are in a great position to win now, a position that isn’t necessarily going to re-occur.

The same thing can be said for other clubs. These were trades being made by humans, and even though humans are very smart, they are also often driven by emotions.The idea isn’t that we are underselling or overselling relievers. The idea is that coming to that conclusion based on trades is problematic and ignores other factors that could be influencing a team’s decision in making a trade.

Worst Play: While Junior Guerra had some trouble with command in his start — he walked four and gave up five hits across 6.1 innings — he managed to keep the game in hand. Smith…did not. Here’s how his appearance went:

• Miguel Montero tapped a single into right;
• Matt Szczur hit a routine grounder to third that Jake Elmore muffed;
• Tommy La Stella lined an RBI double down the right-field line, making the score 4-2;
• Kris Bryant received an intentional walk to load the bases; and
• Anthony Rizzo — of course it was Rizzo — cleared said bases with a double to the right-center gap.

Rizzo’s extra-base hit (-.370) dropped the Brewers’ chances of winning from 65.4 to 28.4 percent. When Ben Zobrist followed it up with a run-scoring single off Tyler Thornburg, those odds plummeted further, to 18.1 percent. Since the Brewers had taken a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first, they’d maintained at least a 60 percent chance of winning; that vanished in the blink of an eye.

Maybe you can put some of the blame for the meltdown on Elmore, who should have ended the inning on Szczur’s double-play ball. But Smith wouldn’t have needed to rely on his third baseman if he’d struck out his opponents. Not only did he fail to do that, he got zero whiffs on the 18 unintentional pitches he threw. Smith now has a 3.86 ERA and 4.21 DRA on the year — the former is more than a run above his mark from last season, the latter nearly two runs. Whatever trade value he had has begun to evaporate.

Best Play: Still, it wouldn’t be like the Brewers to go quietly. After Thornburg ended the top of the seventh with a strike-‘em-out/throw-‘em-out double play, Kirk Nieuwenhuis earned a one-out walk off Travis Wood. On the very next pitch, Elmore — the arguable scapegoat from the previous half-inning — walloped a ground rule double into left field, bringing the winning run to the plate.

Elmore’s two-bagger (+.149) gave the Brewers a 37.2 percent win probability, which they wouldn’t surpass for the rest of the game. Why wouldn’t they? Despite having multiple runners in scoring position, Milwaukee couldn’t get on the board. Pinch-hitter Andy Wilkins struck out and Jonathan Villar flied out to kill the rally and deflate the club’s chances to 13.5 percent.

His gaffe at the hot corner notwithstanding, Elmore had himself a solid game, picking up two walks (one intentional) in addition to the double. His teammates’ shortcomings were the bigger story, though. In the second inning, the Brewers had runners on second and third with two outs against Jon Lester; Jonathan Lucroy responded with a lineout. In the sixth inning, the Brewers again had runners on second and third, this time with no one out facing 41-year-old Joe Nathan. Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, and Chris Carter all went down on strikes to end it. A high-strikeout team will always leave some runners on base, but no one should accept this kind of haplessness.

Trend to Watch: We need to talk about Will Smith. His problematic performance has cost the Brewers two games in as many Sundays — remember the walkoff wild pitch against the Reds? (If you’ve erased it from your memory, I don’t blame you. Also, sorry for dredging it back up again.) As noted above, his performance has declined sharply in a number of respects, the most troubling of which may be his platoon split.

All three of the base hits that Smith allowed on Sunday came against left-handed batters (Montero, La Stella, and Rizzo). This marks the second straight year that lefties have touched him up — they’ve posted a .281/.303/.406 line in 2016. Now, those results come over 33 plate appearances, so they could be fluky. (On that note, Smith has given up a .364 BABIP to southpaws despite a 28.0 percent hard contact rate, which, you know the drill.) Based on his pitch location, though, Smith has clearly trended in the wrong direction:

I wrote in November about Smith’s peculiar 2015 — although lefties hit well off him, he continued to attack them in the same manner he had in 2014, targeting them heavily down and away. In 2016, that’s changed; whether consciously or because of poor command, Smith has hung a lot of pitches. If Smith can’t start to get lefties out, he’ll really be in trouble.

This doesn’t even begin to get into Smith’s velocity woes. On Sunday, he unleashed an 83-mph slider for the first time this season; his average velocity on the pitch (81.6 mph) nevertheless fell a full tick below last year’s average (82.6 mph). While he’s thrown a little harder overall in his second month post-DL, his clout hasn’t come back quickly enough, and it’s cost him. Thornburg and Jeremy Jeffress have done well, though, so if Brewers starters can just make it through seven innings, they’ll be fin-[sobs]

Up Next: The homestand continues with a four-game set against the Diamondbacks. Chase Anderson takes the hill tonight versus Braden Shipley in his 6:20 CST major-league debut. Tomorrow, Matt Garza and Patrick Corbin will face off in a battle of solid starters-turned-subpar scrubs. Jimmy Nelson will take on Archie Bradley on Wednesday, and Zach Davies and Robbie Ray will wrap up the series with a Thursday matinee. Here’s to hoping Smith gets his groove back and the Brewers start hitting in the clutch.

Best Play: Let’s give credit to someone who deserved it. Sure, he pulled it off against a pitiful offense, but Zach Davies dominated on Sunday. Of the 23 Reds hitters he faced, five struck out, four reached base — all of them on singles — and none came around to score. Davies’s ground-balling ways erased a leadoff Joey Votto single in the fourth inning; when Jay Bruce dribbled a 2-2 sinker to first, Chris Carter and Will Middlebrooks teamed up to turn two.

Bruce’s double play (+.089) gave the Brewers a 48.7 percent chance of winning, up from 39.8 percent after Votto’s hit. From then on out, Davies really got rolling, retiring the final 10 Reds to step in against him. Milwaukee’s win probability would stay above 40 percent until the eighth inning, as the club’s starter did his best to keep them in the game.

After melting down two weeks ago versus the Dodgers, Davies has twirled a pair of gems against the Nationals and Reds. On Sunday, he allowed a little too much solid contact for my liking — per FanGraphs, 38.9 percent of the balls in play off him were of the hard variety. If he can keep those balls on the ground, though, his infielders should take care of them. With Matt Garza’s second straight ugly year, Chase Anderson’s perpetual long ball woes, and Jimmy Nelson’s disturbing peripheral meltdown, I’ll take what I can get out of Davies.

Worst Play: Evidently, when the Reds shuts you out for nine innings, the baseball gods put you out of your misery before the tenth. After setting down the first five batters he faced, Tyler Thornburg dished out a base on balls to Hamilton, which prompted Craig Counsell to bring in Will Smith. The lefty proceeded to walk Joey Votto, then allow Hamilton to advance a base on each of the subsequent pitches — first on a steal, then on a passed ball.

The walkoff pitch (-.364) drained away the remaining 36.4 percent chance the Brewers had to win. Entering the inning, Thornburg had identical 36.4 percent odds; when Smith came in, those had improved to 43.7 percent. It’s probable that, had either of the two relievers preserved the tie, Milwaukee would have crossed the plate eventually; Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks 28th in baseball with a 4.71 DRA. In the end, though, the speed of Hamilton did them in.

Thornburg issuing the two-out walk didn’t concern me; at that point, he had already thrown 23 pitches, and he’s still put together a phenomenal year regardless. Smith, on the other hand, has struggled. His velocity hasn’t yet returned — his slider has topped out at 82.9 mph in 2016, whereas it averaged 82.6 mph in 2015 — and it’s cost him. His swinging-strike and ground ball rates are each about half of what they were last year. Smith hasn’t had too many control problems this year, so the walk/passed ball from Sunday were nothing more than flukes, but he will continue to allow runs in some fashion if he doesn’t get his velo back.

Trend to Watch: Instead of focusing on the negative, let’s look at one of the more positive developments from 2016: Jonathan Villar! While he didn’t net a hit in his three at-bats Sunday, he did work a free pass off Dan Straily. That meant he reached base safely for the eighth consecutive game — and the 17th out of his last 18 contests. For the 2016 campaign as a whole, he’s hit a cool .302/.384/.436, good for a .290 TAv.

Now, this comes with one massive caveat: Villar currently possesses a .412 BABIP, the highest mark among qualified hitters. Since no one can maintain something like that long-term, it’s safe to say that Villar will regress from this level of play. But even the most rabid Brewers fans realize that Villar isn’t this good. Most of us just want above-average production from the shortstop, and going forwward he should be equipped to provide that, even without an elevated BABIP.

The plate discipline progress that Villar has made should aid him. Per BP’s PITCHf/x data, he’s swung at 23.1 percent of pitches outside the strike zone; that’s in line with the 23.0 percent clip he posted as a rookie. Unlike then, though, he’s also hacked at a lot of strikes, with a 62.0 percent Z-Swing rate. That combination has given him an 11.7 percent walk rate, the highest of his career, as well as a 25.8 percent strikeout rate that’s actually below his major-league norm.

Perhaps more importantly, Villar has consistently stung the ball. His 31.9 percent hard-contact rate, via FG, is the highest of his career; it’s also a level he’s never matched over as many games. Especially for a fast player such as Villar, hitting the ball hard will always guarantee some degree of a high BABIP/ISO — even if, as happened on Sunday, those balls find their way into opposing gloves.

Villar provies some value already on the basepaths, and it looks like he’ll better employ his speed going forward. And as a competent defensive shortstop, he doesn’t need to accomplish much at the plate to earn his keep. But no one would complain if Villar continues to smooth the transition to the Orlando Arcia era, or if his four remaining years before free agency entice another club to trade for him. All in all, the Brewers got a pretty solid return for Cy Sneed.

Up Next: On Tuesday, the road trip through the division continues. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee will duel in three straight 6:05 CST games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Junior Guerra, Anderson, and Garza will take the hill for the Brewers, while the Pirates will give the nod to Jeff Locke, Jameson Taillon, and Francisco Liriano. The Bucs aren’t nearly as horrid as the Reds, but a few victories against a divisional opponent are always welcome.

Related Reading:
Five Stats to Watch

Contending teams are always thirsting for more arms. Furthermore, the recent success of the Kansas City Royals, and the Yankees before them, may prompt teams to prioritize locking down the back end of the bullpen to shorten the game.

Jeremy Jeffress: Service time at the end of the 2016 season 3.104
Jeffress’s service time is notable because he will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason. As a newly minted closer, he will start to become expensive as he proceeds through the arbitration process. Jeffress is earning $519,100 in 2016, which will surely increase for 2017.

It’s difficult to find a direct comparison, because many 2016 relievers who filed for arbitration either had more service time or more experience in the closer role. However, Jeurys Familia comes close to Jeffress’s potential numbers after this season. He finished last season with 3.03 years of service time, about where Jeffress will end up, barring injury. 2015 was his first full year as a closer, after spending some time in a setup role. He had a slightly better ERA and WHIP than Jeffress in their pre-closer seasons and had logged about 30 more innings, although the arbitration hearings may not yet be an area welcoming of advanced stats that effectively describe relievers’ success. Familia’s salary jumped to $4.1 million for 2016. That means one might expect Jeffress to come in a little under $4 million.

This is important because an expensive closer is an unnecessary luxury on a rebuilding team. If the team can clear the Braun contract, maybe they won’t mind paying Jeffress’s increased cost. However, with attendance and TV ratings down, this may be an expense they don’t want to bear. It also doesn’t hurt to note that while Jeffress has the closer label, he hasn’t been the best pitcher in the bullpen. These factors may make Jeffress the most likely Brewers reliever to be dealt.

Michael Blazek: 5.62 DRA
There are lots numbers we can use to show how much Blazek has struggled in 2016 aside from DRA. While his strike out rate per nine innings has remained constant at 7.6, he’s allowed 4.1 more hits, 3.6 more walks, and 1 more home run per nine innings in 2016. His .333 BABIP should allow for some improvement, but if he keeps getting hit hard regression will only do so much. Most importantly, an important bullpen piece who is still cheap and potentially valuable via trade is now in AAA to try and regain his form, which likely kills his trade value for the July 31 deadline.

The issue seems to be his fastball. Whereas last year hitters only slugged .338 against his four seamer, this season that’s up to .608. Blazek is allowing slightly more fly balls this year (up around 2.5 percent), his line drive and groundball percentage have remained constant. His velocity is also slightly up this year (94.78 vs. 94.32). Looking through Brooks Baseball, there doesn’t seem to be a specific reason for this downturn. Maybe it’s the small sample of 30.7 relief innings sandwiched around a DL stint. More troubling is the idea that maybe 2015 was the outlier. Relief pitchers are generally shine bright and burn out fast The Brewers need to hope this is an uncharacteristic blip on the radar or a minor injury if they hope to salvage some value from Blazek, either in Milwaukee or via trade.

Will Smith: 6: Times Smith has pitched in at least two consecutive games 
Before the season, it looked like Will Smith was going to close for the Brewers. While a lefty, he was the best returning reliever on the team, and Craig Counsell seemed hesitant to give Jeffress the reins in April without at least a nominal tether. Smith’s injury changed that plan and had the hidden benefit of raising Jeffress’s value as he can now be valued as a true closer.

While there was some speculation that when Smith returned, he would soon be anointed closer, that didn’t happen. He’s primarily been brought into the game in the seventh and eighth innings. Smith’s ability has never been in doubt. Last year he solidified his reputation as the rare lefty who can get guys out from both sides of the plate (.208 TAv against RH in 2015). While he’s not an Andrew Miller level talent, Smith would be an elite available LHP and could command a hefty price. Continuing to show little effects from his knee injury will only serve to increase his value.

Teams are already beating a path to One Brewers’ Way, as Rosenthal reported earlier this month, and the list of players who could possibly find their way out of Milwaukee is long and varied: there’s the usual suspects, Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun, but rival executives have also inquired about relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith, as well as several of the team’s young starters.

Smith and Jeffress are not exactly names you expect to come up in trade talks. Both are young, come with plenty of team control, and it’s hard to say that they’ve got any sort of problems the rest of the league is unaware of. During a normal trade season, they’d never be mentioned. But this is not a normal trade season. Over a dozen different teams could be saddling up to the counter, looking to solidify a playoff or championship push. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and no executive who values his job wants to be seen doing nothing as his team falls inches short of the postseason. Times could get desperate enough for the shopping contenders in the coming weeks that everybody short of Bernie Brewer is in play.

So, by virtue of their position as sellers in the ultimate sellers’ market, the Milwaukee Brewers have a major advantage this summer. Then, you factor in the team’s payroll situation, and the picture gets even rosier. Milwaukee had exactly three players due to hit free agency this coming offseason: Aaron Hill, Chris Capuano, and Blaine Boyer. Capuano and Boyer are not pitching well enough to warrant consideration as trade bait. The other thirty-seven players on the roster are locked up through 2017, at least:

Sure, it might have been a week into the calendar, but July officially landed last Thursday. It was then that the Milwaukee Brewers made their first move of trade deadline season, flipping offseason acquisition Aaron Hill to Boston in exchange for A-ball second baseman Wendell Rijo and AAA starter Aaron Wilkerson.

Admittedly, the trade is not one to inspire large-scale celebrations in Wisconsin. Scouting reports on Rijo are heavy on the words “average” and “polished,” a combination of traits that usually lend themselves to utility infielderdom. Wilkerson is a 27-year-old who only made it to the AAA level just this season, labors to scrape 90 on the radar gun, and gets by on pitchability and guile. He’s an intriguing fringe prospect, and he just might be the next Mike Fiers or Junior Guerra–or, he might be a pitcher whose stuff isn’t good enough to get big-league hitters out consistently. He’s posted phenomenal walk and strikeout rates across two levels in 2016, and he’s done it with stuff that doesn’t look nearly as good as it plays on the stat sheet:

Neither acquisition is likely to set the Major Leagues on fire, but that’s not the point. Just seven months ago, the Brewers acquired Hill as a means to get a better prospect out of Arizona, in Isan Diaz–that is, he literally had negative trade value. Now, he’s worth two interesting–if not particularly shiny–prospects. On the whole, it was a coup. Hill was never going to fetch a top prospect, but the front office got something of value for him, and the Jean Segura trade somehow looks even better now.

If you're into trade-trees….#Brewers functionally moved Jean Segura for Chase Anderson, Isan Diaz, Aaron Wilkerson, and Wendell Rijo.

— J.P. Breen (@JP_Breen) July 7, 2016

And it could be that this is just the beginning.

But Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy rank as two of the biggest trade chips on the market right now. That the Brewers have been actively shopping both players since December is no secret–but back then, nobody was interested in meeting the team’s asking price. Various rival executives commented anonymously to the media on how the Brewers wanted an “unreasonable return” for them. The front office maintained that they knew what their players were worth. Since then, both players have put together first halves that support the Brewers’ analysis of the situation amidst swirling trade rumors. Though the rumors have died down around both players in recent weeks, their production and pedigree mean the Brewers can demand a king’s ransom for them each.

Braun is hitting north of .320, and leading the team with his .315 TAv. Furthermore, the advanced metrics suggest that he’s starting to learn his way around left field. He’s still below average, but he’s much, much, closer to average than he was last year. Braun’s value is at its highest since he was suspended, and once Jay Bruce is off the market there isn’t really anyone comparable available to trade mid-season. Braun is 32 years old, making a case for a Silver Slugger award, and under contract through 2021. Trading him makes sense, since it’s hard to see his value doing anything but remaining steady or going down. But trading him for less than he’s worth makes no sense, ever–which is why he’s still a Brewer, even though the team is unmistakably rebuilding. If the trading deadline turns into a feeding frenzy, the team might get what they want for Braun. Otherwise, he’ll just keep on hitting.

Lucroy might be the most interesting man on the roster right now. He’s actually in a very similar position to Carlos Gomez last season at this point, a year and change away from free agency freedom while performing at a high level. If the Brewers deal Lucroy in the next few weeks, well, it’s clear they’ve got a strategy with this sort of thing. But Gomez’s track record of success a year ago was more solid than Lucroy, whose fluky-bad 2015 is still fresh in memory. The more distance he puts between himself and that level of performance, the more he’s worth to potential buyers. Lucroy could be far more valuable this off-season than he is in-season.

Then again, the Texas Rangers have gotten approximately .3 WARP from their catching troupe of Bryan Holaday, Brett Nicholas, and Bobby Wilson. Robinson Chirinos, the pre-season starter on the depth chart, made his return this past week–but he’s historically fragile, and he’s nowhere near Lucroy’s league offensively or defensively even when healthy. Almost six months ago I handicapped the respective Lucroy suitors, and the Rangers appeared to be in pole position. Today, that still looks to be the case. Back then, Texas was hesitant to part with any of their premium prospects–outfielders Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, and Lewis Brinson, or infielder Jurickson Profar.

The Rangers already have Shin-Soo Choo locked up long-term in one starting outfield role, and they’ve made overtures to extend leftfielder Ian Desmond’s contract in the past few days, so logic would follow that one of the outfielders is expendable. And now that they’re in the thick of a pennant race, they’ve gotten over their shyness–the most recent reports are that the Rangers are “plotting to acquire Lucroy.” The Brewers’ main priority is acquiring young pitchers but Gallo, Mazara, and Brinson are all potential superstars of the future, and it would be madness to pass up an offer with any one of them if the Rangers capitulated and included one as the headliner of a Lucroy package.

There’s no saying that a three-way trade couldn’t be worked out, either. Stearns hinted this past weekend that he would be open to adding starting pitching at the deadline–a curious position for a team ten games behind .500 and clearly building for the future. But when you look at the names floating around the market for starting pitching, it makes more sense. Atlanta’s Julio Teheran, Tampa Bay’s Jake Odorizzi, and Oakland’s Sonny Gray are both young and cost-controlled, and both have the potential to be true front-of-the-rotation starters–but because of the overflooded trade market, and their respective teams’ struggles, both have been hot commodities. In Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, and Chase Anderson, the Brewers have discovered a stable bunch of mid-to-back rotation starters, but the team lacks a true ace at this point. Any of those three names would fit the team’s M.O. perfectly with their age and contract, and the chance to bring one in could make the team competitive sooner than planned.

Of course, keep in mind: the extreme buyer’s market that helps the Brewers when trying to sell hurts them if they decide to pursue a big-league starter. The price tags on Teheran, Odorizzi, and Gray will be very high. Texas would have to give up a lot of minor-league talent, and probably some to Milwaukee in this hypothetical three-way deal too, in order to make it fly.

Still, stranger things have happened–and this trade deadline, which ends a full day later than normal since July 31 falls on a Sunday this year–is shaping out to be quite the strange one indeed.

Top Play (WPA):
Yonder Alonso’s single to center, which scored Danny Valencia and advanced old friend Khris Davis to 3B, broke the tie and gave Oakland a 3-2 lead (.228). Both Davis and Alonso would score on the next play as Marcus Semien hit a triple to make the score 5-2.

Milwaukee held a 2-1 lead entering the 6th inning, but relievers Blaine Boyer, Will Smith, and Michael Blazek couldn’t hold the lead, allowing those 4 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in their 1.7 innings. Indicative of their evening, those relievers combined for one strikeout.

Bottom Play (WPA):
The worst play of the game also occurred in that fateful bottom of the 7th inning. Blazek started the inning allowing a Steven Vogt triple and Valencia reached on a Jonathan Villar error. Vogt’s triple was crushed to the deepest part of the park, but Kirk Nieuwenhuis had a shot at catching it, but the ball bounced off the heel of his glove. After those two hitters reached, Khris Davis did the Brewers a favor and grounded into a fielder’s choice which resulted in Vogt getting thrown out at home (-.156).

Trend to Watch:
Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson was in and out of trouble all night. He induced only 3 swings and misses, down from 6 in his disaster start in San Francisco last week. The A’s contact rate in the game was 93%, running up to 97% for pitches in the strike zone, both well above Nelson’s seasonal and career numbers. With so much contact, Athletics hitters still only swung at 43% of Nelson’s pitches, also below his season average.

Nelson’s first inning was a slog, as he needed 32 pitches to get his three outs. He gave up 2 hits and a walk, and escaped his jam with a well timed double play. This set the tone for the evening, as Nelson only pitched one clean inning, but only gave up 1 run. He stranded 87.5% of his base runnners last night, also above his season strand rate of 76.2%.

Nelson survived and gave the Brewers a chance to win, but his performance last night is not sustainable for a successful pitcher. Nelson didn’t fool batters, and he got lucky that he stranded so many runners.

Quick Hits:
It was Milwaukee’s first game in Oakland since the 2002 season. Back then, the stadium was known as Network Associates Coliseum. The Athletics won that game 8-0 as Mark Mulder pitched a shutout. Ben Sheets started for the Brewers and was chased after four innings.

Up Next: The Brewers finish their west coast trip with an afternoon game against Oakland. Junior Guerra will look to bounce back from his worst start of the season last week in Los Angeles, where he allowed 5 runs to the Dodgers in just five innings. The 5 runs were the most he’s allowed in a game all season, and he gave up a home run for the third straight start. For the A’s, Daniel Mengden makes his third career start. Last time out, he pitched 6.3 innings against Texas, allowing 2 runs ( 1 earned) and striking out 7. First pitch is 2:35.

Top Play (WPA): Hernan Perez’s RBI single in the 6th inning tied the game at two (.174). Jonathan Villar scored on the play. Unfortunately, on this play the Brewers not only scored their last run of the game, but also recorded their last hit. Bumgarner escaped the inning after Perez was caught at second on an ill-advised steal attempt. The lefty pitched two more innings, walking one batter and hitting another, before Santiago Casilla pitched a perfect 9th inning for the save.

Perez started the game in right field and his defense was a mixed bag. While he had a nifty sliding catch, he also botched a short pop fly that fell between him at Scooter Gennett, which should have been caught.

Bottom Play (WPA): Denard Span came to the plate in the bottom of the 8th with one out and runners on the corners. Will Smith was pitching and had been wild to the previous batter, Madison Bumgarner. He threw two wild pitches in the process of walking him. Those wild pitches allowed Angel Pagan to score from second and Gregor Blanco to advance to third base. Pagan represented the winning run in the game. Span had a chance to bust the game open, but instead grounded into an inning ending double play to kill the rally and give the Brewers a chance in the 9th inning (-.089).

Trend to Watch: Last night was Matt Garza’s first start of the season. He pitched four innings, allowing one run, eight hits, a walk, and struck out five batters. He threw eighty seven pitches and fifty four were strikes. As a first outing for a pitcher who will be given every chance to keep his rotation spot and possibly build up some trade value, it was a positive start.

Of course, if Garza is to have any trade value, he’ll need to improve upon his 2015 performance when he was knocked around. His 2015 DRA was 6.17, which was higher than his 2013 and 2014 seasons… combined. BPMilwaukee featured Garza’s call-up yesterday, and went deep into what Garza has been and could be in the future.

Taking a quick look at Garza’s work last night, there weren’t many big changes in velocity or pitch selection. He threw his two and four seam fastballs at about the same rate as last year, each around .5 mph slower but not much of a velocity difference between the two pitches. He mixed in his changeup and curveball a bit more frequently, both at the expense of his slider. At least from this initial game, Garza didn’t make too many adjustments. He has his arsenal, he had a similar approach, and hopefully he’ll have better results this year. For reference purposes, I’ve put the numbers I used in a chart below.

Matt Garza 2015:
 

Matt Garza 6/14/16 vs. Giants
 

Next Up: An afternoon matinee closes out the series in San Francisco, as the Brewers attempt to avoid the sweep. Jimmy Nelson starts for Milwaukee. After a strong run through May, he’s been roughed up in his past two starts against the Phillies and Mets. In 9.3 innings, he’s allowed 8 runs, 15 hits, 5 walks, with only 6 strikeouts. However, his first start of the year was against the Giants in Milwaukee, and he pitched 7.3 innings, allowing only 2 runs. Johnny Cueto is scheduled to start for San Francisco. Since May 2, Cueto has pitched at least 6 innings in every start and allowed less than two runs (fun fact!). Cueto’s first start of the season was the same game Nelson pitched against the Giants. Cueto went 7 innings, allowing 1 run, as the Giants won 2-1. First pitch is 2:45.

Top Play (WPA):
The eighth inning was the disaster inning for the Brewers, as a 3-2 lead became a 6-3 deficit. Mike Trout hit a leadoff home run to tie the game at 3, but Thornburg nearly managed to escape with just that limited damage. With a man on first and one out, Andrelton Simmons was jammed on an inside fastball and hit a soft ground ball to shortstop that turned into a forceout.

If Simmons had made better contact, the ball might very well have been a double play, and the Brewers go to the bottom of the eighth disappointed but very much in the game. As it was, though, Thornburg walked Geovany Soto and gave up a fly ball double to CJ Cron that gave the Angels a lead they wouldn’t relinquish (+.271).

Bottom Play (WPA):
The Brewers had a big opportunity to blow the game open much earlier in the game, but the bottom of the fifth’s key ground ball did in fact turn into a double play. Three consecutive singles netted the Brewers both a run and an excellent chance to score more, but Jonathan Lucroy popped up and Chris Carter hit a chopper up the middle for an easy double play (-.114).

Carter was victimized by the shift, as his ground ball was fielded by the second baseman on the shortstop side of the bag, but the ball was hit so weakly that it likely would have been a double play even with normal positioning. This moment was particularly disappointing given Carter’s recent hot hitting, but obviously no one can deliver each time.

Trend to Watch:
Ryan Braun had a tremendous April, and his last week has been scorching hot: a .400 batting average and .464 OBP. His overall season line is .374/.441/.593, and clearly his return to left field is agreeing with him.

I had assumed that MVP level Ryan Braun was gone, and, given his age (32), that is likely still the case. However, at this point, Braun is demonstrating that he has still some life left in his bat, which is a positive whether it be because of a boost in trade value or a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat.

Key Moment:
It’s tough to keep harping on this, but the Will Smith injury has truly thrown the Brewers’ bullpen into a tailspin. The team had an above-average bullpen last year, ranking in the top half of the FIP leaderboard in 2015. But thus far in 2016, the group has been a disaster: they rank 29^th in 2016.

Jeffress had pitched each of the three previous games, so he was almost definitely unavailable on Wednesday. However, having Smith as a co-closer would obviously create a different dynamic, and having an additional shut-down late inning option would help the Brewers avoid situations such as the one they faced on Wednesday, when they had to turn to Tyler Thornburg to hold a slim eighth-inning lead.

And when Mike Matheny brought in Rosenthal in an effort to send the game into extra innings, it looked like the Brewers would in fact need extra frames to win the game. But Kirk Nieuwenhuis drew a walk, and Santana drove a middle-middle fastball over the center field wall to give the Brewers the eventual 6-4 win.

Bottom Play (WPA):
In terms of raw impact, it’s tough to beat teams trading home runs in the bottom of the eighth and top of the ninth, but the Cardinals half of the sixth inning was ultimately significant as well.

Jeremy Hazelbaker, yet another out-of-nowhere Cardinals product, led off the inning with a double, putting the tying run in scoring position with no one out. The next two plays, though, would define the game (until, of course, the various late-inning heroics).

Matt Holliday was up next, and he was jammed on an inside pitch but was able to muscle it into short right field, where a previous blooper had already fallen earlier in the game. This time, however, Scooter Gennett made an excellent running catch over his shoulder, keeping Hazelbaker at second base with one out. And while the next batter was up, Hazelbaker attempted to steal third base, but Jonathan Lucroy gunned him down (-.103).

Trend to Watch:
Chase Anderson had a second solid start. His ERA will not accurately reflect his performance, as the three unearned runs he allowed in the first still count on the scoreboard and still required him to give up the hits that drove in the runs, but he settled in nicely after a rough first inning. Anderson was a key piece of the Jean Segura trade this offseason, and the Brewers will be hoping he can settle into being a solid option in the middle of the rotation.

Anderson’s 9:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in eleven innings is a positive development for the Brewers, especially with Matt Garza’s injury and Wily Peralta’s general terribleness. Jimmy Nelson has also looked good thus far in 2016, so having two or three dependable options in the rotation is a big step for a club that is looking to develop its younger players.

Key Moment:
Brandon Moss’s game-tying home run in the bottom of the eighth came off Michael Blazek, and it was a key example of the cost of Will Smith’s injury. Despite the fact that Smith and Jeffress were to be co-closers and therefore have uncertain roles, Smith would almost definitely have pitched the eighth. With lefties Matt Carpenter and Jeremy Hazelbaker due up and the team’s big bench bats being lefties, Smith would have been the obvious choice to pitch the eighth. Instead, though, Blazek was the best choice.