Have you ever had a pitcher that you wanted to sign

But all of your offers he did decline?

Let me tell ya a story of my situation

I was talkin’ to this righty from the Japan nation.

The way that I met him was when he was a Ranger

You could tell right away that this pitcher was danger,

He took the mound and his slider was breakin’

No opposing batter could be found rakin’.

I whispered in his agent’s ear, hey let’s stay in touch

So when your man his free, we can pay your man much

I asked him his range, he said blah-blah-bla

He wanted at least 6 years, and an opt-out clause.

I said we’d consider it, and he was enthused

I said, how do you like Milwaukee

He said, “There is a lot of booze”

He was traded to LA, and he pitched in the Series

And then as a free agent, he acted kind of leery.

When I asked, “Do ya have another team?” he tried to pretend,

He said, “Oh, no I don’t, I only have a friend.”

Come on, I’m not even goin’ for it

This is what I’m goin’ sing

Yu, is who we need, but Yu says he’s just a friend

And he says he’s just a friend,

Yu, you’re just what we need, but you say he’s just a friend

But you say he’s just a friend,

So I took Yu’s agent’s word for it at this time

And testing the market wouldn’t be no crime

And we’ve acquired, pitchers, and that’s a fact

Like Marcum, Sabathia, Suppan, and Zack,

Forget about that, let’s go into the story

About a guy named Yu Darvish, who was newly free,

So we made an offer, gettin’ familiar

Having a good back and forth, so we can build up

A relationship or some understanding

How he’d fit right into the rotation we’re planning.

How we could really use that four seamer’s range

And how it works so well to set up his change,

After this was established, everything was OK

The series was over and he went back to L.A.

I called every day to see how he was doin’

The last time I called, my mood was ruined,

Someone picked up and said “yo, is that Theo?” I called again,

You talkin to Theo? “Oh, he’s just a friend.”

Don’t gimme that, don’t ever gimme that.

Jus’ bust this,

Yu, you’re just what we need, but you say he’s just a friend

And you say he’s just a friend, oh baby,

Yu, you are what we need, but you say he’s just a friend

But you say he’s just a friend, oh baby

Yu, you throw the high heat, but you say he’s just a friend

But you say he’s just a friend

So I came to his hometown on a surprise visit,

Just to see Yu, who pitched so exquisite.

It was a weekday, I knew he was there

He’d said our offer was more than fair.

I went to an office and met with security

This guard made me show two forms of ID

He told me where to go and I as on my way

To see Yu and his agent, I was happy to say

But when I arrived around 2:30,

His agent texted they wanted $21 mill AAV.

They told me to wait here, for his agent,

I didn’t know that I was in for such an event

So I came to the room and opened the door

Oh, snap! Guess what I saw?

Theo signing papers with Yu for Chicago

I was so in shock my heart went super low

So please listen to the message that I say

Don’t bother tryin’ sign a pitcher, who says Theo is a friend.

Photo Credit: Tim Heitman, USAToday Sports Images

(Thanks to @CallMeMatub for the David Stearns art.)

The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off an 86-win season and trying to add to that success. Despite what appears to be one of the most favorable free agent markets in recent history, David Stearns seems to be turning to the trade market for improvements. In this discounted market, Stearns would be mistaken going to the trade route rather than spending in free agency.

The Brewers are rumored to be in trade talks with the Miami Marlins for Christian Yelich.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-lang=”en”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Source : Brewers have put together a trade offer &amp; have shown strong interest Marlins OF Christian Yelich. Other teams remain in the mix.</p>&mdash; Craig Mish (@CraigMish) <a href=”https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/955907465538822144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>January 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

Yelich is the most valuable piece on the trade market. He’s barely twenty-six-years-old, and under a $43.3 million contract through 2021 with a $15 million team option for 2022. He’s been worth 15.8 WARP in four-and-a-half major league seasons. Yelich is a borderline superstar on an extremely team-friendly contract.

Yelich’s talent level and contract situation not only makes him the most coveted piece on the trade market this offseason, but he’s also one of the most valuable assets in the league period. He’s going to garner a haul.

A trade for Yelich like starts with one of the Brewers young outfielders, Domingo Santana or Lewis Brinson, both of which are under favorable contract situations of their own. Santana or Brinson alone won’t be nearly enough to acquire Yelich. A hypothetical trade will likely cost one of the two outfielders and probably two of the Brewers top ten prospects or one of their top three prospects. Yelich’s age, skill, and contract allow the Marlins to ask for the world.

The Brewers have one of the strongest farm systems in the league, which is one of the reasons they are in on players such as Yelich and Chris Archer. Rather than blowing up the farm system Stearns has spent the past few seasons building, he has the option of going to the free agent market to find outfield and pitching improvements.

The Brewers ended the last two seasons with the lowest payroll in the league after finishing with the 15th highest payroll in 2014, according to Cots Baseball Contracts. In other words, the organization should have money to spend.

The front office should be looking to add pieces to this young core coming up through the system, not shedding pieces to add talent. Especially when assets on the free agent market are to be had.

If the Brewers are set on improving center field, they should look no further than Lorenzo Cain. Cain is much older, not as talented, and would likely cost a bit more financially than Yelich. However, the veteran Cain wouldn’t cost anything in prospect loss, save a compensatory pick in this years draft. The Brewers could then use their deep outfield to trade for rotation or relief help.

There are plenty of options on the free agent market for Stearns to add to the starting rotation. Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb are just a few names who have yet to find a home. In Darvish’s case, he wouldn’t cost a compensation pick. The Brewers should be doing everything they can to add pitching in this market while they are still available. If all else fails and the team is desperate for pitching, then turn to the trade market.

There’s no reason to ruin what the Brewers have going, as far as their farm system goes. A farm system is something to build around. The Chicago Cubs won their first championship in 108 years by building and holding onto a strong farm system, and then adding veteran talent around them, most through free agency. The Brewers should be looking to go the same route, particularly in this team-friendly free agent market.

Although it’s tempting to jump the gun and acquire an Archer or Yelich, especially when you have the assets to make that possible, it’d be ideal for the Brewers to hold onto their prospects, stay out of the trade market, and build around their young prospects rather than using them as trade assets.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USAToday Sports Images

• (1) The front of the rotation is improved with a true, proven pitcher. (Although “aces” do not exist, if an ace were to exist, Darvish is about as close to an “ace” as it gets).

• (2) The competition in Chicago is slightly downgraded by “subtraction” (ex., if the Brewers and Cubs both were courting Darvish, the Brewers’ signing results in an abstract “loss of runs prevented” for the Cubs. This is a good thing).

• (3) Milwaukee is established as a free agent destination by virtue of their proximity to contending (this is another excellent thing).

There is nothing that is not exciting about a player like Darvish coming to Milwaukee. One of the most common fears expressed by Brewers fans and analysts is that the club could not afford Darvish’s contract, or that Darvish would divert resources in crucial roster crunch years. However, it is worth noting that this is not the case; in fact, if the Brewers were truly looking to compete with their southern rivals, the front office could be justified in adding another impact free agent (aside from Darvish) this offseason. This strategy would basically concede that the team cannot afford the elite class of 2019 free agents (which is probably true), since big markets are loudly sitting out this free agency round in order to land elite, expensive talents in 2019. That’s fine; should the Brewers land Jake Arrieta and Darvish, or Lorenzo Cain and Darvish, those are quite grand improvements for this roster.

It is worth visualizing just how strong the Brewers’ current financial standing is, in order to support multiple signings. First, a look at Forbes surveys from 2016 shows that even during the rebuilding year, the Brewers were increasing revenue, approaching the $240 million mark as a club. Given the club’s low payroll, this produced a substantial operating profit, which one can reasonably assume carried over to the 2017 scenario as well (due to the club’s low payroll in 2017, as well). Extrapolating the Forbes revenue trend, and setting aside negotiations for a new television deal after 2019, and using Cot’s Contracts figures, here is the Brewers’ five year payroll and revenue outlook:

Edit (9:00 AM): This analysis ignores future playoff revenue, since it is an unknown, as well as future MLB Advanced Media revenue, since it is unclear whether these payments will be annual or “one-off” based on MLBAM contracts.  A playoff run into the National League Division Series would likely increase annual revenue by [at least] 10 to 15 percent.

This is a team that is operating significantly in the black, or leveraging this robust financial health to purchase additional capital assets (such as the Carolina Mudcats, Spring Training upgrade, and Miller Park concessions renovations). I will not treat the normative argument about whether ownership should be investing in capital expenditures at this point, at the dearth of investing in labor. Using an “ideal” and “realistic” labor revenue allocation, as well as scenarios in which the forthcoming MLB Advanced Media payment and 2016-2017 profits are redistributed to payroll (either through debt or cash), here is the estimated “payroll ceiling” for the Brewers over the next five years:

Assessing guaranteed contracts alone, and averaging the various revenue scenarios, here’s one likely payroll space estimation for the Brewers:

This team is absolutely swimming in cash, and thanks to the relatively swift and severe rebuilding efforts by Doug Melvin and David Stearns, the club owes almost nothing in guaranteed contracts. Signing two elite free agents in this offseason, even to five year deals, will still allow the Brewers to meet these upcoming arbitration requirements by impact players (with tougher questions for players like Corey Knebel and Jimmy Nelson, who will be deep into arbitration):

Of course, even grouping these players together is not necessarily an adequate way to express the club’s actual future arbitration demands. For example, in 2021, if Domingo Santana, Lewis Brinson, and Brett Phillips are each in arbitration, Santana will be likely entering his final year of arbitration, while Phillips and Brinson will likely be entering their first years. Yet, if each of these players demopnstrate an ability to start at the MLB level, it will be interesting to see whether Milwaukee maintains their extremely deep outfield with this trio and Ryan Braun, or trades from this depth (which would free up more actual revenue for payroll).

The long and short of it is, the Brewers are a club with fantastic revenue trends, current profit potential, payroll space, and current and future contract demands. Should the club wish to take advantage of this slow free agency market, they absolutely have the resources and future outlook to make such a spending spree possible and worthwhile.

The question is where the Brewers’ front office will decide to spend that money. There is speculation the team will go big and throw a large chunk of their resources toward a Jake Arrieta/Yu Darvish type to bolster their starting rotation. Adam McCalvy, MLB.coms Brewers beat writer, quoted Stearns saying “it makes sense to cast a wide net,” when referring to whether the team would spend big on a starting pitcher or not.

It would be a huge mistake to go all in on an expensive, aging starting pitcher. The Brewers’ entire rebuild model through savvy trades and bargain-bin free agent pick-ups would be disrupted. Not only would a high-profile free agent signing severely hold the Brewers back as far as financials go, it would create fewer opportunities for their excellent collections of prospects to find time in the big leagues.

A look at the two high-profile free agents with the most chatter linking them to the Brewers, Arrieta and Darvish, shows that although the two’s well-known names suggest ace-level production, they both have their flaws.

In Arrieta’s case, he wasn’t a great pitcher last year. He was worth just 2.5 wins above replacement player (WARP), along with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Deserved Runs Average (DRA) above 4.00. Arrieta was plagued by the long-ball and had a walks-per-9-innings rate near 3.0. 2017 was easily his worst full season since joining the Chicago Cubs, and the righty is also an older free agent due to his late start in the big leagues. He will turn 32 in Spring Training. Arrieta is expected to garner somewhere in the range of 100 million dollars over four or five years. The Brewers cannot afford to pay for the age 34, 35, or 36 seasons of a pitcher who was not even worth three WARP in his age 31 season.

Darvish had much more success in 2017, but he presumably comes with a higher price tag and more injury risk. He just threw over 150 innings for the first time since 2013. He has thrown over 200 innings only once in his career. Darvish is expected to garner at least 120-130 million dollars over five, six, or possibly seven seasons. All the Brewers’ eggs would likely be in the Darvish basket due to the large price tag.

Not only are both of these big-name starting pitchers almost as risky as they come, they don’t fit into the Brewers rebuild timeline. As of now, the team’s five-year outlook is rosy. Some prospects, Lewis Brinson in particular, have been slow in their promotion to the big leagues, but their farm system remains one of the best and deepest in baseball. Most of the major league club’s core is in their twenties. Draining all of their resources on a 30+ year-old starting pitcher moves their window up. Instead of building a long-term winner, they are gambling on the next few years.

The Brewers rotation wasn’t exactly a weak spot in 2017. Jimmy Nelson emerged as a Cy Young candidate until a shoulder injury ended his season. He is expected to miss significant time in 2018, but the Brewers have the starters to pick up most of the slack. Zach Davies, who has yet to turn 25, enjoyed the best season of his career at 3.4 WARP. Chase Anderson had his big breakthrough, posting 2.4 WARP in less than 150 innings. Brent Suter, who could be expected to open the season in the Brewers rotation, posted a 3.45 earned run average in 70 1/3 innings as a starter. As soon as Nelson returns from injury, one can squint and see the makings of a playoff caliber rotation.

David Stearns needs to spread the team’s resources. The team lacks any glaring holes; instead they need mild improvements across the board. Their rotation could use another middle-of-the-rotation piece such as C.C. Sabathia, Jhoulys Chacin, or Tyler Chatwood. They need more depth in the bullpen. There is no Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon in this free agent class, but there is an abundance of set-up reliever type assets. Addison Reed, Mike Minor, or Brandon Morrow could bolster the Brewers bullpen and ease the burden on the starting rotation at the same time. Two or three smaller moves such as these will lower risk while strengthening several areas of the roster rather than just one.

As much as Brewers fans want to see that big splash, it would be wise to stay away from the big-money signing and go the conservative route. This is not the offseason to be spending big. It seems as though the Brewers front office has no choice but to spend in order to build off the 2017 season, but the hunk of change gamble is not the way to go.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USAToday Sports Images

Recently, my surplus analysis of the Brewers roster affirmed the relatively well-known fact that Catcher, Right-Handed Pitcher, and Second Base are the greatest positions of need for Milwaukee in 2018.

Extrapolating those needs:

• While Manny Pina performed quite well, the Brewers could use stronger back-up support. It is not clear whether Stephen Vogt, Andrew Susac, or Jett Bandy have profiles that are suitable for high-end back-up to help the Brewers contend. This is prior to considering any concerns in approach or mechanics that suggest Pina will not be able to continue performing at his 2017 level.

• Waiver trade deadline acquisition Neil Walker delivered solid production down the stretch for the Brewers, and arguably should be a clear target in free agency given the lack of any immediate prospect that flashes a strong starting second baseman role in the advanced minors. Walker will not block any prospects, and his ability to play at multiple infield positions will help the Brewers execute their “Team Depth” strategy.

• Finally, right-handed pitching will take hits due to injury (Jimmy Nelson), free agency (Matt Garza and Anthony Swarzak), uncertain prospect production / development projects at MLB level (Brandon Woodruff, followed by Corbin Burnes and company), and arguably role depreciation as well (everyone from Junior Guerra to Jorge Lopez to Aaron Wilkerson could fit this description). It should not be outlandish to suggest that the Brewers could easily use two-to-three additional starting pitching options in order to withstand April-through-July and the battle of attrition that is the 162 grind.

This post will outline a set of topics for free agency analysis, but first it is worth looking at the three-year depreciated surplus figures for the Top 25 free agents among pitchers and batters. The following tables include:

• Raw 2017 Three-Year Depreciated Surplus (treated without contract, as though the player was a 2016-2017 free agent).

• Raw 2018 Three-Year Depreciated Surplus (once again, treated without contract, with every player on a three-year scale for ease of comparison).

• The difference between 2018 and 2017 depreciated surplus, which should read like “role depreciation,” or “role trend,” to suggest whether the player is largely trending upward or downward.

• These figures are drawn from Baseball Prospectus WARP, knocked down to 70 percent to imitate production regression of aging and injury (etc.), and placed on the “market rate” WARP schedule of approximately $7 million per one WARP.

• Additionally, players that have options or opt-outs were not included in this search in order to present a uniform class of players and avoid complicated contractual assumptions.

First, the best bats:

Now, following the same table structure, a look at the 2018 pitching free agents:

Future Topics:
From this basis, much analysis should follow, as the surplus figures are highly abstract and obviously not tethered to the reality of negotiating contracts that could span anywhere from one-year (perhaps for someone like Cameron Maybin) to seven-years (for someone like Yu Darvish). Obviously, specific statistical, mechanical, age, injury, and other considerations will come into play in the actual market, as well. More detailed analysis on these areas will follow. However, for now, it is worth drawing some big picture conclusions about the class:

• Should someone wish to gamble on injury recovery risk, pitchers from Alex Cobb to Michael Pineda, or even Yu Darvish, could provide significant surplus (yes, Darvish could provide surplus value to a club even with a huge contract). Obviously, these cases will require particular attention to detail in terms of mechanics, injury type or severity, and other medical or recovery-related factors.

• The supposed lack of star power among position players could provide a feast for the right front office mentalities: players from Eric Hosmer to Neil Walker to reclamation projects like Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, or Carlos Gonzalez could deliver plentiful returns to front offices with a sharp eye to mechanics, strike zone approach, and other related factors.

• An amazing bench (or set of depth role players) could emerge from this class, lead by someone like Jarrod Dyson (a fantastic glove-first centerfielder). Even the Brewers, with their noted glut of outfielders, could arguably find room to upgrade depth roles with a player like Dyson (who offers more certain defense and a rather disciplined-if-unspectacular plate approach compared to someone like Keon Broxton off the bench).

• Moreover, who will be the next Chase Anderson? Or rather, how will the Brewers front office learn from their coaching and arsenal approach successes with the veteran? My vote in this regard is for the unheralded Jeremy Hellickson, who you last heard about in the ridiculed 2017 deadline trade involving the Phillies and Orioles. Yet although Hellickson followed up his strong 2016 campaign with some troubles in 2017, his arsenal and mechanics maintain the basic form of their 2016 foundation. Additionally, the righty works with the much-familar sinker-cutter-curve-change approach that the Brewers have worked with (see Davies, Zach, as well as Anderson).

While all the hype will justifiably go to guys like Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, the 2017 Brewers pitching success proved that arms can indeed succeed by being placed within a particular system that uses the proper individualized approach to each pitcher’s needs (Derek Johnson’s chameleon coaching style is oft-praised for this characteristic). For this reason, a raw mechanical project like Arrieta could succeed in Milwaukee, but given the cost comparisons and serviceable depth options available, this is a perfect offseason for Stearns and the front office to gamble on pitching acquisitions that fit a particular mold suitable to the organization. Since Milwaukee will face market constraints throughout their contending years, learning how to repeatedly find the next Chase Anderson will arguably be as important as learning when to jump at an elite contract.

The Brewers can indeed contend in 2018 while continuing to develop players at the MLB level, but they will be required to do so with the most….interesting roster in the division (as opposed to the one with the most starpower). In this regard, perhaps a consistent head-scratcher like the 2012-2016 Orioles is a better model for replication and discussion than the popular Cubs, Pirates, or Astros building models.

Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports Images