Related Reading:
The Almost-Trade of Carlos Gomez
Brett Phillips: Newest Future Brewer
An Ode to the Uniquely Bright Carlos Gomez
All-Aboard the Jungmann-Santana Express
The Player-Hader’s Ball

Keeping this in mind, it is worth looking at the development of each player involved in the Mets’ and Astros’ bids for Carlos Gomez in 2015. The Mets non-trade for Gomez gave fans a rare look into the different types of offers that front offices can field for a player (or set of players), highlighting the difficulty of determining the most valuable trade in an industry where value can move in many different directions. Yet if this lesson was instantly available in 2015, the trade also offers even more intriguing lessons one year later. Even if a team executes a solid trade, they may need patience to await results that match the expected value of that trade. With that in mind, it is worth analyzing the 2016 campaigns of the Gomez trades.

The Trade Assets
Both Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers underscore the reality that established MLB players can also have rough years,and non-linear paths to success. In 2016, Fiers and Gomez are each having rough years for the Astros, although both for different reasons. Be it for injury (Gomez) or inconsistency (Fiers), the headliners of the Brewers’ biggest 2015 trade exemplify the struggles of the prospects and other players involved, for both the Mets and the new Brewers farmhands. Almost everyone involved in either version of the Gomez deal is worse off in 2016, which is a great opportunity to showcase the difficulties involved with player development.

For Gomez, the elite power/speed centerfielder is finally warming up after an injury-plagued early season. Gomez landed on the disabled list with a ribcage injury, although he was ailing prior to that, too. His .185 / .246 / .250 batting line entering June does not tell the full story for Gomez. Since returning, Gomez has flashed some of those tools that make him an elite threat, posting five homers and five stolen bases over his last 169 PA. However, Gomez is not otherwise hitting the ball, as the veteran is struggling with a .230 AVG and 47 strikeouts over that same time period. One can squint and see the old Gomez building back up, however, and as Gomez continues to get back into his groove, he can build on his power, speed, and walks.

Fiers has shifted his approach toward off-speed pitching in 2016, after earning his name as a one-of-a-kind fastballer. According to Brooks Baseball, Fiers selected his rising or cut fastball more than 65 percent of his 2015 pitches; that rate is down below 55 percent this year. In place of the rising and cut fastballs, Fiers has doubled his slider usage and significantly increased his change up selections. Almost across the board, Fiers is allowing more groundballs, line drives, and fly balls within in repertoire, in place of the whiffs he saw in 2015. It’s tough to pick a culprit for his increased home run rate, as his homers are up on the primary fastball, cutter, slider, and change. It’s not as though Fiers has been bad across the board, however, as the righty is managing to shift between quality and rough outings. His 5.05 DRA paces him approximately five runs below average for Minute Maid Park, which is still respectable for a back rotation profile.

The Mets Players

RHP Zack Wheeler
The New York Times published a detailed discussion of Zack Wheeler’s elbow surgery rehabilitation over the weekend. Wheeler was to be the prize of the Brewers / Mets version of the Gomez trade, a high-rotation potential that would be worth the injury risk and (hopefully) offering much more immediate value than a pitching prospect. Despite a March 2015 surgery date, Wheeler has yet to work in a game in the Mets system during 2016, and only has a few bullpen sessions to his name.

For that potential, one dreams on the running 95-96 MPH fastball and deep breaking pitch repertoire, which helped land Wheeler atop the stacked Mets organizational chart for Baseball Prospectus in 2013. Wheeler, once lauded as one of the best right-handed pitching prospects and a Top 5 overall prospect, now has the risk side of that gambling equation speak louder than the potential reward. Yet, the Mets eagerly await his return, as the righty could serve as a valuable stretch addition for an injury-plagued rotation if he returns to games in time.

• 2016 Impact: N/A (Yet to pitch).
• Future Impact: 3 years arbitration control; Role unknown

UTIL Wilmer Flores
In the middle of May, it looked like Wilmer Flores might join his teammate in the category of “Injured Potential.” The flexible infielder suffered a hamstring injury, and was batting .180 / .255 / .280 when he hit the DL. Since arriving from the disabled list, however, Flores has turned around his performance for the Mets while also serving a crucial role as a utility starting infielder. This rare role has produced a -2.5 FRAA, but one might place an asterisk next to that number to note the fielder’s positional flexibility.

At the plate, Flores is maintaining a strong contact and discipline profile since his injury. With 11 walks and 15 extra base hits (nine homers) in 145 plate appearances, Flores is further strengthening that .282 AVG. This stretch of improvement has resulted in Flores’s most valuable offensive season of his career with a .314 TAv. BaseballProspectus noted that Flores could have heavy pressure on his bat if he landed at 1B, but the 2013 #5 Mets prospect may now possess that elusive above average in-game power.

• 2016 Impact: 1.3 WARP (.314 TAv, -2.5 FRAA)
• Future Impact: 3 years arbitration control; power bat infielder/1B.

The Astros Return

RF Domingo Santana
The biggest contrast between the Mets and Astros package was the future-oriented aspect of the Houston offering (with much less immediate access to that potential). In the context of that package, Domingo Santana was the least risky trade return, in the sense that the powerful right fielder had already cracked the big leagues. However, the MLB future of Santana had many question marks, especially in terms of Santana’s contact within the strike zone. Upon entering Milwaukee’s batting order, Santana instantly won admirers with a .299 TAv and enough walks to offset those strike outs. Santana had nothing left to prove at AAA, so the Brewers traded established left fielder Khris Davis to Oakland to open a roster spot for Santana (thereby doubling down on organizational future potential).

Unfortunately, Santana has struggled with injuries throughout the bulk of the 2016 season. These struggles include a recent setback that truncated Santana’s rehab stint. On the field, the right fielder continued the extremely high walk and strike out profile at the plate, but lacked the home run punch in irregular playing time. Still, a .278 TAv is not dreadful, especially as one considers that the 23 year old’s longest stretch of uninterrupted starts yielded only 100 PA. One could be inclined to argue that Santana’s injury riddled season hurts the Brewers in the sense that Milwaukee still has to answer his question mark in 2017, but that’s hardly a complaint given Santana’s positive bursts since coming to Milwaukee.

• 2016 Impact: 0.5 WARP (missed 56 team games thus far)
• Future Impact: Remains under reserve (approximately 1 year, 79 days service after 2016); Three True Outcomes starting right fielder

CF Brett Phillips
If Santana was the least risky prospect returned in the trade, Phillips was arguably the headliner, as the athletic CF annihilated Advanced A ball and had already earned a promotion to AA within the Astros system. 2015 BaseballProspectus scouting reports of Phillips generally painted a potential five average tool (at least) profile, even though both observers disagreed about the potential hit and power tools (50 / 50 vs. 55 / 45). Phillips’s glove and arm drove the outfielder’s value, however, largely leaving most to believe that he could start in centerfield.

Phillips’s 2016 campaign at AA Biloxi is not as thrilling as his 2015 efforts for that club, as the left-handed bat has found his game power and maintained his walk profile while also enduring a brutal slump. Over the weekend, Phillips snapped a nine game hitless streak, which was part of a prolonged .143 / .271 / .275 slump over 109 PA. Even during that slump, Phillips’s bright spots shone, as the 22 year old collected seven extra base hits and 16 walks. Now, Phillips has a chance to show that he can endure professional difficulty and respond by making adjustments and showcasing that hit tool along with his others.

• 2016 Impact: 1.52 WARP (.273 TAv, -2.6 FRAA. Overall 37th of 81 200+ PA Southern League)
• Competition: Youngest 30 percent of Southern League regulars (200+ PA median age 24); Top 40 percent competition (.690 opposing OPS). [Translation: Phillips is notably young for his league and is facing relatively tough competition.]
• Future Impact: Full reserve control; Toolsy starting centerfielder.

LHP Josh Hader
There is an argument to be made that Josh Hader was the biggest riser among the Brewers prospects returned in the Gomez / Fiers deal, given the lefty’s 50 K / 11 BB / 3 GR performance over his seven games in Biloxi during 2015. The debate about Hader is well-known to BPMilwaukee readers by now: despite a legitimate high velocity fastball from the south side, some combination of off-speed stuff, command, and/or delivery (arm slot) caused many to question whether Hader will be a starter or elite reliever.

Hader has hit some road bumps since earning his 2016 promotion to AAA Colorado Springs, but the southpaw still looks like someone who may force their way into a September call-up. Of course, the youngest age of any Pacific Coast League regular pitcher (50+ IP) in 2016 is 23, so the 22 year old Hader is almost absurdly young for that advanced league. The strike out profile has not left in this advanced league, either, even if Hader is showing some issues with command while pitching in the Rockies. Even if the role is not predetermined, Hader will probably receive every chance to start with the rebuilding Brewers.

• 2016 AA Impact: 2.14 FIP (top among Southern League regulars [45+ IP])
• AA Competition: Youngest 25 percent of Southern League regulars (45+ IP median age 24); second-weakest competition (.662 opposing OPS). [Translation: Despite being notably young for his league, Hader faced weak competition.]
• Future Impact: Full reserve control; High octane lefty.

RHP Adrian Houser
Adrian Houser was the least hyped among the prospects returned, but the righty earned a quick call-up to Milwaukee and Arizona Fall League placement (along with Hader). Last Friday, BPMilwaukee’s Kyle Lesniewski featured Houser in detail in his weekly prospect feature. Lesniewski highlights Houser’s “under the surface” improvements that preceded the righty’s Tommy John surgery.

• 2016 Impact: 3.67 FIP median among Southern League regulars (45+ IP median FIP of 3.66)
• Competition: Youngest 45 present of Southern League regulars (45+ IP median age 24); Top Third opposing difficulty among Southern League regulars (.695 opposingOPS). [Translation: Houser was near median age for his league, but faced notably difficult competition.]
• Future Impact: Injury risk increased; Role Unknown.

Around 3:00 pm on Wednesday, I would have said that there wasn’t a chance the Brewers would move Carlos Gomez. By about 7:00 pm, news broke on Twitter that Gomez was indeed on the move to the New York Mets. A couple hours later, the trade was dead in the water, with both Brewers and Mets fans being left stunned and not knowing what to think. This isn’t an article about that fiasco, though. Instead, I want to analyze the return the Brewers almost got from the Mets and wonder if it would have been “worth it,” in the abstract sense.

The reported return for Carlos Gomez was right-hander Zack Wheeler and infielder Wilmer Flores. Flores is hitting .249/.281/.378 and playing poor defense at shortstop. Although I’d like to point out Zack Wheeler’s stats from this year, he hasn’t pitched. Instead, he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery and an additional surgery to his flexor tendon. He likely won’t pitch a major-league inning until June or July of the 2016 season. At first glance, that’s shockingly underwhelming.

Zack Wheeler was clearly the centerpiece of the almost-deal, and he’s undergoing recovery from a major injury. While the recovery rate for TJ surgery is now near 80 percent, it’s far from a guarantee. According to that linked article, the average career innings post Tommy John surgery for a player Wheeler’s age is 221. That’s a scary thought, but it also might be outdated information. The study was for all players that returned to the majors from 1974-2009. It also lumps in terrible pitchers with quality pitchers, so it’s difficult to get a clear picture. But the procedure has been refined in more recent years and is more successful now than it once was.

And to focus solely on the risk is an incomplete way of looking at this part of the deal.

This is from last year’s Mets Top-10 list from Baseball Prospectus:

Wheeler showed during his stint with the Mets that his arsenal can compete against big-league lineups, and he will continue to build his resume in the rotation in 2014. If the 23-year-old can further sharpen his fastball command and avoid working too much in the upper tier of the zone, there’s a chance he sustains more consistent success. Harvey and Wheeler are in essence “1A” and “1B” on this list. Both arms can anchor the front of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

That’s high praise as Matt Harvey had established himself as potential true major-league ace. Interestingly, at the time of that writing, Matt Harvey was in much the same position Wheeler is now — recovering from Tommy John surgery and not a sure thing. So far this year, Harvey has pitched in 19 games and been as effective as one would expect. Jose Fernandez is another example of a recent successful TJ recovery. One doesn’t even have to go outside of the Brewers rotation to find an example of life after TJ surgery. Wily Peralta had the surgery performed in 2007 and is still pumping 95-96 sinkers with regularity.

Of course every person is different. Just because these players have recovered doesn’t mean Wheeler will do the same. But recovery isn’t unlikely. Most times, the only cost is time. In addition, the Brewers medical staff has been recognized on at least two separate occasions for their excellence (one, and two). I’m inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt in this scenario. If they were ready to sign off on Wheeler, that’s good enough for me.

So assuming Zack Wheeler were to make a full recovery, he has the stuff to be an excellent pitcher — the kind of pitcher the Brewers have lacked in recent years and the kind of pitcher for which Brewers fans have pined. But he wasn’t the only piece in the almost-deal. The Brewers viewed Wilmer Flores as their solution at third base. They aren’t alone in thinking he can be a competent third baseman.

This is also from the Mets 2014 Top 10 list at Baseball Prospectus on which Flores ranked third:

Flores doesn’t get enough credit, mostly due to his inability to project at shortstop and the organizational roadblock at third base; it gets forgotten that Flores has really nice hands and a very strong arm, and with his offensive upside, a third base profile would make him a much more heralded prospect in the game. Despite the glove and overall coordination, Flores lacks average range, and that could limit his utility at second base, although he could certainly handle the fundamental aspects of the position. At the plate, Flores is going to hit for power; it’s just a matter of time and a question of how much. He has a knack for putting the barrel on the ball, with excellent hand/eye coordination and improving strength in his body that allows him to get extension and drive the ball to right-center. This is a very legit player, and this will be true even if he struggles in a longer major-league look in 2014.

Flores still doesn’t get enough credit for his potential, due to his inability to play shortstop. He’s constantly knocked for being shoehorned into a position that doesn’t fit his profile. But if a team moves him over to third base, it takes pressure off him to perform on the field defensively. With that off his mind and consistent playing time, it’s still possible that he can refine his offense. His hit tool was graded as a 5 potential (major-league average) and his power was graded as a 6 (plus power).

Flores is just 23 years old. Jean Segura, Hernan Perez, and even Carlos Gomez are all great examples of players who struggled to reach their overall potential when rushed to the majors. Early disappointment certainly doesn’t mean they cannot still reach their previous potential. Brewers fans fully understand this, as Gomez is the best example of why patience is warranted for young players.

With the potential for at least average defense at third base and 20 home-run power in his bat, I think Wilmer Flores could have been a solid-average player at the hot corner. With a full recovery, I think Zack Wheeler had the potential to be the best starter in the Brewers rotation. Four years of a frontline starter (though really 3.5 years since he won’t pitch until mid-season) and four years of an everyday third baseman is a pretty good return for 1.3 years of Carlos Gomez, even as good as he is.

But that is all projection at this point. Flores has to prove he can make those improvements, and Wheeler has to prove he’s healthy. There is a chance, small though it may be, that Wheeler never pitches in the majors again. If he does make a return, it’s possible either he never regains his previous form or it takes longer than half a season. If Flores bat never comes around, he’s just a utility infielder, at best. This outcome would obviously be disastrous for the Brewers.

I can’t immediately say this deal would have been a bad one for the Brewers. In fact, I think it had a better chance of working out than not. But with that risk in mind, I would describe this particular trade package for Carlos Gomez as exceedingly risky. I think it’s fair to question if that risk would have been worth it.

But there is one last thing to consider. A trade like this could have allowed the Brewers to compete again more quickly than a package of prospects might allow. (Note: This was written before the Astros trade was announced, so it doesn’t reflect any opinion on that deal). Take a look at this hypothetical roster for 2016:

There’s a large amount of guesswork involved in constructing that roster, but it’s made of just the players that are currently available to the Brewers. That particular roster would cost approximately $57,805,000 before pre-arbitration and arbitration salaries are factored. Pre-arbitration players would add approximately 7,211,575**.

Jean Segura, Wily Peralta, Will Smith, and Tyler Thornburg will all be in their first year of arbitration. It’s difficult to guess what their salaries may look like, but I assume the combined total wouldn’t be more than $9 million. Brandon Kintzler, Logan Schafer, and Matt Dominguez are also arbitration eligible, but I’d be surprised if they’re on the roster by Opening Day. Again, that’s just reasonable speculation on my part.

Added all up, it’s approximately $74,016,575. Their 2014 Opening Day payroll was $103,697,967 and in 2015 it was $104,237,000. If that’s their maximum payroll limit and they can still spend that much in 2016 — something that is not a guarantee — it would give the Brewers as much as $30,000,000 to spend to improve their roster via the trade market and the free-agent market.

Clearly, they would have needed to find a center fielder. But that’s a position of depth in the next free-agent class, not the least of which includes Gerardo Parra. Regardless of what they do for center field, they’d have a significant amount of money left to spend on upgrades elsewhere. But that isn’t the only way the Brewers could improve their team next year.

They do have some prospects that could contribute by mid- or late-2016. Chief among those prospects is Orlando Arcia. His value has skyrocketed this year, going from the back-end of several Top-100 lists to the Top 20. Michael Reed is a player capable of playing each outfield position, though may defensively profile best in a corner, and at his best could approximate a Nori Aoki type offense. Tyler Cravy, Ty Wagner, Jorge Lopez, and perhaps even Tyler Thornburg and Michael Blazek would provide more starting pitching depth than the Brewers have enjoyed in recent memory. And, of course, in this scenario they’d be able to add Zack Wheeler to the mix by June or July.

And none of this is factoring in trades they could still make at some point with Gerardo Parra and Matt Garza among others. I don’t know if this would have given the Brewers a great chance to compete in 2016 or beyond. But I do think it would have kept the possibility very real. That chance could even improve in 2017 when more prospects become MLB-ready or near MLB-ready.

At the very least, I can understand why Doug Melvin and the rest of the Brewers front office found the package of Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores so compelling.

*Recall this is a hypothetical scenario in which Mike Fiers wasn’t traded.

**The major-league minimum in 2015 was $507,500 which was an increase of 1.5%. I increased that again by 1.5% to account for potential increase in the minimum for 2016. This figure may not be entirely accurate but is likely only a few thousand dollars off which is a negligible amount.