With the trade deadline quickly approaching, I thought it would be a useful opportunity to open up the comments section to any questions about the Milwaukee Brewers, the trade deadline, or whatever else comes to mind.
We’ll be doing chats on the local sites in the coming months; however, this should serve as a vehicle for that kind of format in the meantime. Just submit your questions in the comments section on this post, and I’ll answer them — starting at 1:00 pm CT today. Feel free to continue submitting questions or criticisms after that point, but that’s when I’ll begin to type quickly and furiously in an attempt to answer as many questions as I can this afternoon.
(NOTE: If your comment doesn’t appear immediately, it’s just because your comment needs to pass through our spam filter. I’ll be sure to catch it, so don’t worry about submitting your questions multiple times if they don’t immediately show up.)
I look forward to this. Let’s get it done, folks.
What type of package would it take to move Carlos Gomez?
It’s difficult to peg a “type” of package that would work for Milwaukee, as I’m unaware of what they want. Do they want MLB piece(s)? Do they want low- or high-minor guys? The organization plays their cards close to the chest, so it’s almost impossible to get a read.
For me, though, I’m looking at what the Reds acquired for Cueto — a couple top-10 prospects in KC’s system and another guy who has improved his stock this year — and wanting significantly more. Cueto provides two months of value. Gomez has 1.5 years of value. For me, it takes a stud prospect, plus two additional legit pieces to get anything close.
It seems like the Brewers I have a lot of players that should/could be traded. Gomez is the most valuable and will likely catch the greatest haul, it also might be unlikely to go. It seems like Lind and Parra should be shopped for the best offer. Is there any reason Melvin should not trade those two? What are the odds that Gomaz get shopped?
It’s always important to remember that it takes two to tango at the deadline. Just because Gomez would hypothetically bring the best haul, doesn’t mean anyone is willing to pay the necessary price.
In terms of Lind and Parra, the Brewers should absolutely be shopping the pair. I believe the organization is reluctant to move Lind for two reasons: (1) the feeling I get from talking to people is that ownership is reluctant to engage in a true fire-sale, both due to business and competitive reasons; and (2) the Brewers have had such difficulty finding quality first-base production since Prince Fielder departed, and the club doesn’t wish to immediately throw that away and restart their search for a big-league first baseman.
If I had to guess — and it’s what I would call partially-informed speculation — I’d say Adam Lind is still wearing a Brewers uniform in August, unless a team backs up the truck and unloads the farm.
Who are your favorite “under the radar” or unranked Brewers prospects, and of them who has the best shot to make the bigs?
I’ll offer three under-the-radar guys:
RHP Cody Ponce — I’ve talked to a couple scouts who couldn’t believe Ponce fell to the Brewers in the second round, with one saying that he thought Ponce represented the best value pick in the whole draft. I’ve noticed that MLB.com has Ponce ranked outside the top-20. For me, Ponce sits just outside the top-five. I really like his potential.
RHP Preston Gainey — If you really want to go off the radar, Gainey is an intriguing prospect who went in the 11th round of the 2012 draft. He has moved to the bullpen this year and has compiled a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 innings. Last fall, his velocity bumped into the mid-90s as a starter with a fringy curveball. He could develop into a middle-relief prospect, if he can fine tune his command.
OF Nicolas Pierre — The Brewers signed him for nearly $1 million in 2013 out of the Dominican Republic, and he has been relatively unnoticed this year due to a poor .234/.272/.273 slash line. It’s important to recognize, though, that he’s only 18 years old and is experiencing his first taste of professional ball in the U.S. I’m not suggesting that he’s threatening to break into the organization’s top-10 prospects. But too many people are not paying attention to him whatsoever.
Who do you expect to be traded before the deadline and could we get anything at all for Garza or Lohse?
I think only Parra and Cotts get moved prior to the July 31 deadline. With that said, I do think Lohse and Broxton get moved for a PTBNL or two in August, with the main benefit being salary relief for the club. Garza is unlikely to go anywhere until the winter months — if even then.
Jed Hoyer and Farhan Zaidi are the the GMs of the Cubs and Dodgers but in essence Epstein and Friedman run those teams. Do you think Melvin assumes this same role next year?
This is a great question. If Doug Melvin moves to an advisory role and the club chooses a new General Manager, I don’t think Melvin will be the primary decision-maker. As with the current organizational model, Mark Attanasio will still have considerable clout in any personnel decisions — for good or bad — but it appears that Attanasio and the Brewers will look to bolster their analytical department with any potential hire. Melvin will probably remain as active in the front office as he wishes, just not as one of the two primary decision-makers.
What should the crew be targeting in return for their vets? It seems like they are in a stronger position than they have been in ages with young starting pitching (Peralta, Nelson, Fiers, Jungmann, with Lopez and Wagner approaching). But can you ever have too much pitching?
The Brewers should seek to acquire the best-available player, no matter their position on the diamond or proximity to the majors. Meaningful steps have been taken in recent years to increase the talent-base in the minor leagues, but that must continue.
I should note that the Brewers have a level of pitching depth that they haven’t enjoyed in years, but it still lacks impact. The whole bunch is filled with potential mid-rotation or back-end starters. That’s still useful, but the Brewers are going to return to contention once they develop or acquire impact in their starting rotation. Of the players listed, I only think Nelson has a chance to be a #2-type pitcher. The rest are #3-5 types, and it’s dangerous to expect Nelson to reach his highest potential. It’s great to have depth, but the organization cannot stop trying to acquire impact talent.
What kind of innings limit will we be seeing on Nathan Kirby this summer? Only pitched 64 collegiate innings, but I know the Brewers will probably want to be conservative given his injury.
I haven’t heard anything in relation to Kirby this summer. It all depends on the unexpected medical concerns that surfaced in his medical exam — the contents of which have been undisclosed, and rightfully so. The organization has suggested that it won’t prevent him from pitching, but he’ll probably see a couple relief appearances a week. I’d be surprised if the Brewers throw him more than a couple innings at a time. His health is most important in 2015.
Adam Lind to STL seems like an obvious fit. As a Cardinals fan, I have no idea what the return would be. Tyler Lyons a fair return for Lind?
The Brewers will be targeting something more than Tyler Lyons in any negotiations surrounding Lind. The southpaw is a potential fifth starter, at best, and has been shuffled back and forth between Triple-A and the big-leagues at age 27. Milwaukee will target someone with the potential to be a league-average starter in the majors, even if happens to be in the lower levels of the minor leagues.
Hi do u know which team is most likely to get lind is it the cardinals pherhaps?!
Hello! I’ve said for a couple months that St. Louis made the most sense. However, reports and rumors suggest that Milwaukee isn’t actively looking to move Adam Lind. Given the Cardinals’ farm system and hole at first base, though, I do think they make the most sense, if a deal is made.
What are your general thoughts on the updated MLB prospects list? Who’s too high? Too low? Are there any grades you disagree with and when can we realistically expect to see some of the top tier guys?
I’m assuming that you’re talking about MLB.com’s list. I should preface this by saying that all lists come down to personal preference, in some ways, but I’ll offer a few thoughts based on scouts I’ve talked to over the past couple months.
Too High: OF Clint Coulter, SS Jake Gatewood
Too Low: RHP Cody Ponce, OF Michael Reed
I know people like the power/patience combination of Coulter and he’ll probably be passable in right field, but I think he’s going to have issues with right-handers in the upper levels. I question whether the hit tool will play well enough to be anything more than a fringe starter in right field. People became enamored with his hot start, but he’s now hitting below .250 on the year.
Compare Coulter with someone like Michael Reed, who will be at least average defensively in right field, has ample patience and brings speed to the basepaths. Moreover, he’s already doing it in Double-A. Coulter has the higher ceiling — though not by as much as scouts thought a year ago — but I think Reed is a safer bet to make the big leagues.
Can you offer any insight on why the speedy Reed isn’t playing in CF?
Since the Brewers are not proceeding with trades to improve the future of the organization, why do the Brewers feel that the current core of players will achieve a different result next year?
It’s dangerous to equate few moves this summer with an intention to “stand pat” for 2016. The Brewers will likely be active this winter, and if guys like Gomez, Segura, and Lind are going to be traded, Melvin has shown that he’s much more willing to move big pieces in the offseason.
I also think there’s a common misconception about the Brewers’ front office and that they somehow “misread” their talent level in 2015. Doug Melvin has publicly stated multiple times that he and his staff projected this club to be a .500-ish team and the org hoped they could catch lightning in a bottle and compete. The club has been a .500 team since the beginning of May. Melvin and his staff couldn’t have foreseen a brutal month of April, but they’ve been pretty spot-on since.
Whether you think the team was wise to “go for it” instead of rebuilding in 2015, though, is another question entirely. I don’t think the Brewers were stupid to give 2015 a shot, either, for the record.
Pretend you’re the GM, Jim. Is there anybody off limits on your 40-man roster? Why?
The answer to this, of course, is that no one is ever off limits. However, there are multiple players that I’d be very hard-pressed to move, simply because they have so many control years remaining and their contracts are team-friendly. These guys include:
Jonathan Lucroy
Jimmy Nelson
Wily Peralta
Will Smith
Again, that’s not to suggest that I’d be against trading any of these players. I just don’t think any team would come close to offering what I’d want to get in return to move them.
Say you’re ready to trade Gomez and it’s down to the Rangers, Giants, and Indians. Who would you want from each team?
I dislike making specific trade proposals because it’s almost impossible to figure out what makes sense for both sides. I mean, professionals in all 30 front offices can rarely come up with proposals that work. I’ll give it a shot, though.
For the Rangers, I’m assuming that Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara are off-limits, which they should be. As the Brewers’ hypothetical GM, I would target a deal headlined by Nick Williams. He’s a volatile asset that would be difficult to take as a headliner, but people I trust continue to sing his praises this year. Further down the minors, I’d be 100-percent targeting Luis Ortiz, cuz I think he’s a stud.
I don’t think the San Francisco Giants have what it takes to come close to a Carlos Gomez deal, unless they include big-league talent, and I’m not sure why they’d do that.
For the Indians, it comes down to whether they would headline a deal with Bradley Zimmer. If BZ would be on the table, the Indians and Brewers could match up extremely well for a Carlos Gomez deal. If not, it’s difficult to see who would make sense for both sides. Maybe a Carlos Carrasco package, if we’re looking to get creative? I’m not sure.
What does Jorge Lopez’s future look like in Milwaukee?
Long-time readers — or Twitter followers — know that I’ve been skeptical of Jorge Lopez’s big-league future. That’s largely been because he lacked a third pitch and didn’t have quality command of the other two. It’s extremely difficult to sustain big-league success as a starter with just two pitches, and to do that, they have to be really good.
Brewers fans have gotten excited this year because he owns a 2.72 ERA in 102.2 innings for Double-A Biloxi. It’s been seen as a huge step forward in his development. I’ve changed my tune on Lopez, too, in talking to a couple scouts who have seen him this year. Some see a potential mid-rotation starter and suggest he’s improved across the board, even flashing a decent changeup. He’s throwing strikes with both his fastball and curveball, too.
As with any “ceiling” projections, it’s safer to take them down a peg in an effort to be realistic. Thus, Brewers fans should perhaps think of him as a potential fourth starter with a chance to be something more. Reports have gotten much stronger on him this year, and it only makes sense that my opinions of him change in accordance with those reports.
Would it actually be a surprise if someone makes a trade for K-Rod? Every team has had a chance to sign him outright for a few off-seasons in a row, and none but the Brewers have. Do you think his performance this year changes minds?
Many teams would probably take K-Rod for relatively nothing, but the Brewers want fair value for his performance in 2015. The problem, though, is that more teams are wary of Rodriguez’s domestic violence history and the fact that he desperately wants to close games. It’s not a good combination for contending teams — who likely already have an established closer — and is one of the reasons K-Rod will likely remain a Brewer for the coming months.
Do you think Gomez or Segura will be on the 2016 Brewers roster?
I’ll go out on a limb and say Gomez is not on the Brewers roster for Opening Day 2016. I still think Segura remains on the team because the Brewers value him higher than other clubs.
Not asking to pull back the Parra trade (he’s been a joy to watch all season), but am asking if you believe the value the team receives this week will be greater than 21-year-old LHP Anthony Banda’s current value (traded with Mitch Haniger for Parra).
Banda has improved his stock over the past 12 months, for sure, proving that Arizona was correct for coveting him last season. He’s compiled a 3.69 ERA with strong peripherals.
Still, Banda isn’t overpowering and doesn’t have a large margin for error as a starter. He does have three pitches and throws strikes, but he’s more control over command at this point and will need to learn how to live on the corners and rely on his changeup to be effective at the higher levels. I don’t think he’d threaten to be a top-10 prospect in many organizations right now, and I do think it’s safe to suggest the Brewers will get a top-10 prospect from a team’s org. The Brewers will have their pick of packages for Parra, based on reports, and should be able to acquire at least one prospect with a better ceiling than Banda — who I think is a potential back-end starter, at most. It’s been great to see him continue his positive development, though, and wish him the best of luck in Arizona.
What do you think of Michael Reed? Keith Law rates him as a future a major league player. MLB only has him as #14 on their new list. That is quite a bjg difference. I like him more than Tyrone Taylor from watching the two when they both played in Appleton.
I’ve been high on Michael Reed for several years. I had him in my top-10 prospects heading into the season. I always thought he was as sure-fire fourth outfielder for a big-league club, but he’s seemingly increased his stock to be a potential starting right fielder.
I still like Taylor better for several reasons: (1) Taylor can legit handle center field, which increases his value ceiling; (2) Taylor is more than a year younger than Reed; and (3) Taylor has room to grow and develop, while Reed is more of a physically maxed-out player that isn’t relying on potential. For fans who value big-league probability more than potential impact, Reed is understandably attractive. It’s just a mistake to sleep on Tyrone Taylor just because he’s not hitting for much power as a 21-year-old in Double-A. I know Orlando Arcia is raking at only 20 years old in Biloxi, but he’s a Dude and is one of the best prospects in baseball … so one shouldn’t compare Taylor’s development to that of Arcia.
What do you think of the Mike Fiers to Toronto rumor? If they would include Anthony Alford in the trade do you make that deal? With four years of control they must know the Brewers are not going to give him away.
For multiple reasons, I don’t think Mike Fiers ends up in Toronto. He’s cheap and under team control for four more years, as you mentioned, so the Brewers have little motivation to move him unless they acquire a ton of talent. Similarly, the Blue Jays are interested in Fiers because they perceive him to be a lower-tier option to the studs on the market, but again, given the four years of control, the Brewers aren’t about to let him go for cheap. Thus, if the Blue Jays are going to have to overpay to acquire Fiers, why wouldn’t they just target someone like David Price — who is far better than Fiers and would similarly cost a require a top-end piece like Alford?
All in all, I don’t see Fiers going anywhere this summer.
How involved do you see Mark A being in these trades? It appears that his decree to not hold a full-scale fire sale is hampering the Brewers ability to reload properly. Are we seeing another Herb Kohl????
Mark Attanasio is very involved in the decision-making process in Milwaukee. I think his reluctance to engage in a fire-sale, though, isn’t as tied to business concerns as it is his inability to deal with losing. Any total rebuild will almost certainly require a handful of dreadful seasons, and Attanasio has said that he doesn’t want to own a losing club. That, I think, has been the driving force behind this constant need to compete. His competitive streak necessitates the chance of winning. The business benefits of avoiding a “rebuild” are just icing on the larger cake.
It’s largely speculation on my part, but I’ve been told by many that Attanasio is very involved in decisions and constantly pushes for contention. He wants to win. He wants to attend meaningful baseball games in September and October at Miller Park. He lives and dies with the performance of the club. He’s a die-hard fan. In some ways, I don’t blame him for such an attitude, but it’s obviously unrealistic for a team like Milwaukee to be in contention every single season. He must show a willingness to sell when necessary.
With the return that the A’s received for Ben Zobrist, who is also a rental, what can we expect for Parra? Derek Harvey said he would be happy with just one prospect that slots into our top 20, I think we should expect a little more. What are you thoughts?
As mentioned above, I think Parra brings back a prospect that will move into the Brewers’ top-10. He’s been one of the best outfielders in all of baseball this year, and while he’s a rental, he represents a significant upgrade for many clubs. The number of teams vying for his services will also improve the Brewers’ likely return.
If Ryan Braun finishes out the year at the same pace he has been on so far, do you see the Brewers attempting to trade him in the offseason? If so, do you feel that Braun has any trade value or would the Brewers be looking primarily for a salary dump?
The biggest issue for teams with Ryan Braun isn’t the salary or the expected performance; it’s the off-the-field baggage that comes along with Braun. As much as Brewers fans don’t want to admit it — because we’ve seen that post-suspension Braun can produce at a high level — the PED baggage will keep teams from being interested in Braun on the trade market. Perhaps it changes in a couple years once it becomes further removed from people’s consciousnesses, but as of now, he’s essentially untradeable for the Brewers.
Thanks y’all. That was a solid couple hours of a question-and-answer session. We’ll end it here. Let’s do it again sometime, yeah?