Related Reading:
Dreaming on Braun and Villar

Now, the Brewers have won four straight and sit right near the top of the NL Central race, 1.5 games out of first after the sweep of the Pirates. As for Braun and Villar, my dreams are coming true. The duo is batting a combined .400 since my article was posted. Each player’s recent surge looks legitimate as well.

Braun
After an injury-riddled first half, Braun has returned to form in the second half of the season. In 40 first half games, Braun slashed .259/.342/.545. So far in the second half, entering Wednesday’s getaway game, he has slashed .347/.407/.541.

Braun has had success against just about any pitch throughout his career, but he feasts on fastballs.

The righty outfielder had a slow bat throughout the first half, whiffing on 8.6 percent of sinkers, about two percentage points higher than his career total. Braun struggled against fastballs throughout the first half.

In the second half, however, Braun has regained his dominance of hard pitches. He has only whiffed on 5.8 percent of sinkers and his average against fourseamers has skyrocketed.

Villar
Villar looked like quite the bust just about all year until August 10. In the five games since then, Villar has hit a homer, notched eight hits and stolen two bags. The switch-hitting infielder has looked like his 2016 self recently. Last season, Villar stole a ton of bases and mashed lower-third pitches.

Villar dominated the bottom of the strike zone. The success didn’t fully carry over into 2017, however. Prior to August 10, Villar didn’t cover the lower pitch as well.

In the last five games, however, seven of Villar’s eight hits have come on lower pitches. It’s a small sample size, but Villar looks like the pitch scooper he was in 2016.

A short stretch of production doesn’t pave a clear path towards legitimacy for either Braun or Villar. However, the two are hitting again, and in the same way they have during successful career stretches. If the Brewers continue to win, they’ll have their two 2016 studs to thank for returning to form.

There are a couple of routes you could take, but they would all probably include 2016’s star Brewers; Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar. The duo placed one and two last year in VORP and BWARP among Brewers players. For sure they’d play a big role in any success the following season, right?

Well, if you have been watching, you’d know this is far from the truth. The two have compiled underwhelming seasons to say the least. Braun has picked up his performance lately, but a recurring left calf injury has refrained him from entering a hitting groove. Villar has completely fallen off any trail he paved for himself last year. His increased expectations have diminished to a level below mediocre.

Through Tuesday, Braun played just 60 games, slashing .281/.355/.535 with 12 home runs, while Villar nursed a .216/.276/.336 slash line with substantial decreases in power and speed numbers. And yet, the Brewers are outperforming expectations. To further the circumstances, Milwaukee’s third, fourth and sixth highest valued players from 2016 (Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Carter, and Aaron Hill) play in different uniforms. What the Brewers have been able to do without the production of 2016’s leading hitters is impressive.

What if Braun and Villar contributed like the 2016 Braun and Villar combo? The Brewers would look a whole lot different.

First, let’s take a look at Milwaukee’s offensive blueprint this season. A precursor to this chart: the Brewers offense has been tailing off hard, slashing .212/.282/.347 (30th/29th/30th in MLB) in their last 14 games.

If the season ended at this moment, Milwaukee would have a better-than-average offense by these metrics. If we replaced Braun and Villar’s 2016 production with their 2017 production, the Brewers would have an elite offense. The Brewers would be third in baseball in home runs and see a giant uptick in offensive efficiency stats, such as BWARP and TAv.

Most importantly, Milwaukee’s win total would increase. I looked at Villar’s and Braun’s 2016 and 2017 Win Advancement and Wins Above Replacement Player statistics. For their 2016 seasons, I totaled the statistics and paced them out at an 115-game mark. I left their 2017 season statistics as is.

In replacing the 2017 Braun and Villar combo with their 2016 versions, the Brewers would evidently increase their win total. Adding up the WARP increases, one could argue that the  Brewers would have enough wins to lead the NL Central.

Constructing this hypothetical scenario is almost purposeless, but it does raise some interesting what-ifs. When the Brewers were 5.5 games ahead of the Cubs on June 11, what if they were 8.5 games up instead? How does that shake up Milwaukee’s trade deadline plan? Do they pursue Yu Darvish or Sonny Gray harder? It also generates appreciation for the young studs and role players on the Brewers’ offense. Players like Domingo Santana, Orlando Arcia, Jesus Aguilar, and Manny Pina have all excelled in their 2017 spots. Travis Shaw and Eric Thames have burst onto the scene.

In the end, Milwaukee has done an impressive offensive job in 2017. To do it with much less production from its two stars (and five of its six most valuable players) from 2016 is remarkable. Thinking what-if undoubtedly generates frustration, but also grows appreciation for the strong core the Brewers have for the future.

Photo Credit: Brad Rempel, USAToday Sports Images

When Sogard was called up in May, #NerdPower ensued, and was analyzed on BPMilwaukee by Colin Anderle. Sogard finished the month at a .400 batting average clip, a 26.5 percent walk rate, and a .387 BABIP. Sogard was bound to regress and regress hard.

In June, Sogard’s walk rate (seemingly his main claim to legitimacy), has diminished, while his strikeout rate has bloomed. It seemed as if his plate discipline was keeping him alive. However, with a June walk percentage of 7.8 and a strikeout percentage of 16.5, Sogard is still hitting .315 on the month, and his season batting average (.339) would tie for second in baseball, if he qualified.

To continue the metaphor, Sogard simply won’t go away. Like the Brewers, some regression is still to come, but signs of legitimacy continue to arrive. How is Eric Sogard sustaining his success?

The answer can be pointed at on an advanced stat sheet, for surface level analysis. His BABIP is still inflated, down just nine points from .387 in May to .378 in June. But in diving deeper into his batted ball statistics, Sogard is making much better contact when he hits the ball.

Sogard’s low hard contact rate in May has jolted up to a semi-respectable number in June.  The same can be said about spreading the ball to all fields. Sogard has always sprayed the ball well across the diamond, but his batting results have come much closer to each other than in May. This type of variation limits predictability and enhances his chances of getting on base.

Sogard, in short, has been making more efficient contact with the ball. Not necessarily better, because he is making less contact with the ball, but he’s hitting it much harder. This could be due to his recent freer-swinging tendencies in comparison to May. As mentioned before, his walk rate has dropped from 26.5 percent in May to 7.8 percent in June, while his strikeout rate has quadrupled in that timeframe.

In June, Sogard has been whiffing much more on low pitches outside of the strike zone. This trend is obviously concerning, and explains his diminishing plate discipline numbers.

Sogard’s whiff rate heat map makes his continued production that much more incredible, and puzzling. His plate discipline looked to be the sole fingernail clinging to a cliff above regression. However, in abandoning a solid BB/K ratio, Sogard has continued to tread water. The 5’10 lefty is finding new ways to fight off regression, and, like the Brewers, it has lasted much longer than we all thought.

Photo Credit: Jeff Curry, USAToday Sports Images

While the majority of projection systems and baseball fans agree that the Cubs will eventually rise to the top of the Central, Wisconsinites and Brewers fans all around are delighting in the continuous extension of what seemed to be a short-lived Brewers edge in the division.

Of course, luck has played a large role in Milwaukee’s time at the helm, but the Brewers seem to have also figured things out a bit. Regression is bound to occur, but Milwaukee has held staying power through the first 74 games of the season.

At BP Milwaukee, Nicholas Zettel evaluated the Brewers’ performance over the last 130 games, regression statistics included. I’ll take a look at the progression/regression chances for Milwaukee’s divisional competition.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are the obvious culprits for a turnaround, and that conclusion doesn’t require research-driven analysis. The biggest standout-bad luck sign are the Cubbie bats: Chicago holds the league’s fourth worst hitting BABIP at .278.

Cubs hitters individually own four of the league’s 26 worst BABIP scores. Ben Zobrist, for example, is hitting .223 with just a .235 BABIP. However, Zobrist is hitting the ball harder than he has his entire career, posting a 35.9 percent hard contact rate. Anthony Rizzo holds a 1.22 BB/K ratio, nearly 0.5 points better than his previous career high, but a career-low BABIP total (minus his 49-game stint as a Padre) has severely weighed down his offensive production. However, Rizzo has mashed the ball ever since he’s moved into the leadoff spot of the Cubs lineup. Chicago’s hitting is bound to recover.

Cubs pitching? The staff has definitely regressed from last season. Jake Arrieta has a ground ball rate almost 10 percentage points worse than his previous two years. Kyle Hendricks, who finished third in the Cy Young Award voting in 2016, owns a 4.07 xFIP and a finger injury, landing him on the 10-day DL. Progression should come for some of the Cubs’ starters, but the underwhelming numbers are a little less fluky for Cubs pitchers.

Barring a mathematical outlier, or pre-2016 Cubs luck on steroids, Chicago will bounce back. The Cubs have series with Miami, Washington, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh heading into the all-star break. Remove Washington and the Cubs have a clear path to the division lead by July 11. Chicago still has 69.6 percent chance at making the playoffs, according to BP’s playoff odds report.

St. Louis Cardinals

This is where it gets interesting. St. Louis owns just a 13.2 percent chance at making the playoffs, a healthy amount below Milwaukee’s 21.2 percent chance. The Cardinals hold the third worst Pythagorean Over/Under (-3.3) in the National League. However, it remains questionable as to if St. Louis has enough weapons to turn that around.

For an organization that values fielding, the Redbirds place 16th in Defensive Efficiency. This puts a lot of pressure on St. Louis’ starting pitchers. Adam Wainwright posts an ERA of 5.75 but a 101 cFIP, Michael Wacha owns a 4.78 ERA and a 96 cFIP. Other pitchers like Carlos Martinez and Mike Leake, who are more reliant on the strikeout and ground ball, haven’t been as affected by St. Louis’ glove performance, piecing together solid seasons regardless.

At the plate, the Cardinals have had some pleasant surprises, like Jedd Gyorko, who has brought his batting average up from .243 in 2016 to .291 in 2017. His BABIP is a lofty .346, however, set for regression, as his hard contact rate is more than two percentage points lower than his career average. Dexter Fowler (.275) and Matt Carpenter (.264) have low BABIP numbers, so it’s probable that their batting averages rise. Other than that, St. Louis seems pretty set in its ways at the plate. The Cardinals rank 14th with a .263 Total Average (TAv), and 18^th in BABIP, so this could just be who St. Louis is.

The Cardinals look like a middle of the pack team at this point, which obviously doesn’t live up to their post-millennium standards. A full recovery from mediocrity doesn’t appear all too probable for St. Louis, but as Brewers fans know, you can never count out the Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates had a really tough April and beginning to May; Starling Marte was suspended 80 games for PED’s and Andrew McCutchen looked as if his 2016 season wasn’t a fluke. Disappointment aligned what once appeared to be a drool-worthy outfield with a trio of potential five-tool players. The third in the grouping, Gregory Polanco, posted an impressive May but has regressed and then some, owning a .197 AVG in June.

However, the team goes with McCutchen, and the once-dreadlocked talent has turned it around. The Bucs ace, Gerrit Cole, has fired seven inning, three hit, one run outings in both of his last two starts following a slew of awful ones. Pittsburgh has slowly but surely slid back into contention, with series wins against Colorado, and so far, two of three against Milwaukee entering Thursday. They have the two worst teams in baseball (San Francisco and Philadelphia) in consecutive series’ to start July. Whether they can take advantage of those two teams will go a long way in showing if the Pirates can contend or not.

Cincinnati Reds

After a strong start to the season, empty hope has showed that there isn’t much to the Reds in 2017. Joey Votto is tearing the cover off the ball per usual, but at a ridiculous rate this season. He leads the league with a 3.69 WARP. The rest of Cincinnati’s offense is also performing, with some players bound to regress.

Not much of that matters, however, when a team has no pitching. With Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani, Bronson Arroyo, and Brandon Finnegan all on the DL, the inevitable pitching massacre has ensued. The Reds pitching staff rank last in baseball with a -3.39 WARP, a full point below Baltimore at team 29. They also rank last in DRA among starters, again by almost a full point.

Cincinnati has lost 11 of its last 12 and poses little threat of progression later in the season.

The 23-year-old righty’s June splits were highlighted by a 2.89 ERA (3.62 FIP) and 4.88 K/BB ratio. Prior to June, the slim sinkerballer posted an inflated 5.44 ERA (5.18 FIP) and a pedestrian 1.93 K/BB Ratio.

In particular, Davies cruised through a five-game stretch in which he surrendered just six runs in 33 innings. During this streak, Davies’s strikeouts skyrocketed, walks plummeted, and efficiency went through the roof.

The secret to this small sample of success looms relatively obvious when exploring Davies’ pitch selection. The young righty dramatically increased his pitch diversity.

Prior to his May 21^st start, Davies hadn’t explored a fourseamer or slider in the major leagues. In his six starts to open the 2016 campaign, Davies owned just a 1.54 K/BB ratio in 30.2 innings, averaging less than of 5.3 innings per start. Starting in June, Davies’s strikeout and inning numbers increased simultaneously.

During that stretch, Davies boosted his season’s K/BB ratio from 1.54 to 3.10 and innings per start from 5.3 to 6.7.

As evidenced above, Davies eased a slider into his arsenal while throwing a fourseam fastball often come the end of the month. Additionally, he threw his cutter more consistently. Not only did his increased pitch diversity lead to more strikeouts, it turned his cutter into more of a swing and miss pitch.

Davies is a traditional ground ball pitcher by nature, due to his heavy use of the sinker. However, the young righty has added the strikeout to his game through pitch diversity. Obviously batters will find it tough to guess correctly on a six-pitch pitcher, which is what Davies may become.

Davies’s flaws tend to correlate with his lack of velocity. As Julien Assouline scribed in his recap of Davies’s last start, pitchers like Davies are risky for a reason; they’re susceptible to the long ball. Thursday’s start saw three separate players take Davies yard in four innings pitched.

Davies will never be the ace of the Brewers, but he seems fit for a mid-rotational spot if he can keep up numbers similar to his June splits. For a small-statured and low-velo hurler, I’d argue Davies needed to diversify his pitches. Without a doubt, his increased usage of horizontal moving pitches and the discovery of his fourseamer will benefit Davies in the long run as it did in June.