Superstar Odds

Part One: Defining Elite Prospect Roles Milwaukee Brewers top prospect Keston Hiura is having a loud spring training campaign with the big league club. The bat-first second baseman boasted a .385 batting average / .407 on-base percentage / .538 slugging percentage entering play on Thursday in 26 at bats. Forget any warning about the validity […]


The Rotation is Good

What is a good pitching rotation in an MLB environment in which pitching rotations do not exist? Following the ideal model, a pitching rotation is a mechanism that an MLB team can use to line up five “starting pitchers” to rotate on a set schedule, and hopefully produce value by preventing runs during the cumulative […]


Depth Beats Attrition

At what point does roster-building “theory” yield to the harsh facts of attrition that accumulate during a 162 game season? I ask this question because throughout the offseason, especially recently, Brewers fans appear upset with the depth that GM David Stearns has acquired for the 2018 season, and there are questions about whether this is […]

Brewers Farm Update

Speculating on on Rookie Arms

The release of Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections is exciting for many reasons, not the least of which is finding the player comparisons that helped inform the projection system. Since PECOTA (and its redesigns) is based in part on finding comparable players in order to assess “true ability” and design aging curves suitable to each prospect […]


Trust the Rotation

Entering 2017, the Milwaukee Brewers employed a rotational turn consisting of five righties: Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Wily Peralta, Chase Anderson, and Jimmy Nelson. Coupled with Matt Garza on the disabled list, this major group was 20 runs below average over 845.3 innings in 2016. The sole positive producers were Guerra and Davies, the former […]



Last year, amidst some projections that suggested the Milwaukee Brewers would struggle to beat the 70-win mark, PECOTA stuck with bullish preseason estimates in the upper-70s. The deep Brewers roster was also bolstered by high floor developing players like Domingo Santana and Zach Davies, as well as second-chancers like Travis Shaw and Chase Anderson, and […]


Cain and Yelich: Renegotiating Surplus

The Brewers recently completed two of the biggest moves of the offseason by trading for left fielder Christian Yelich and signing free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain. These moves are “big” not simply because of the glacial pace of the new MLB collusion, but by virtue of their structure and Milwaukee’s position in the league. […]


Keep Them All!

The Brewers ended the slow burn of the 2017-2018 offseason by shooting off fireworks for an hour this evening, first by trading a phenomenal haul for Christian Yelich and then for signing Lorenzo Cain to the largest free agency deal in franchise history. Both moves immediately spark the club’s outfield, as Cain improves on center […]

The Continued Costs of Miller Park

Signing Free Agents

Over the weekend, the slow offseason was punctured by a rumor that the Brewers submitted an offer to Yu Darvish. Various rumors around Brewersland suggest that the offer was serious, although as always these anonymous rumors require at least a grain of salt. Signing a player like Darvish immediately accomplishes several goals for the Brewers: […]

Brewers Farm Update

MLBPA and Minor League Pay

How much would Brewers prospect Lewis Brinson earn on the open market right now? Baseball Prospectus ranked Brinson as a 70 Overall Future Potential (OFP) All-Star center fielder, with a realistic 60 OFP grade (“above-average everyday center fielder”). Certainly, there are risks in the youngster’s profile, specifically centering around the development of the hit tool […]