If you’re familiar with pitcher statistics, then you might have already heard of TRAA. It is a player’s ability — in this case, the catcher’s ability — to hold runners on base. In other words, do baserunners take off more or less often when a particular player is behind the dish? Inevitably, baserunners will attempt to steal no matter how superior a catcher’s ability to hold runners may be. With that in mind, SRAA measures a catcher’s propensity to throw runners out.

Following a similar format as Part 1, this article will look at what the rate stats say about Jonathan Lucroy, focusing on his ability to hold runners on base and throw them out when they attempt to steal. I will then explore how those rates translate to wins. Finally, I will compare Lucroy’s 2011 season — the best “pitch-framed” season there ever was — and see how his capacity to keep runners from stealing holds up against other catchers.

Holding the Runner

When looking at TRAA data for players that have played in the major leagues, some obvious catchers are at the top of the list. Over the span of an eleven-year career, Yadier Molina boasts a -0.72 percent takeoff rate above average. Steve Yeager also sits near the top of the list with a -0.59 percent TRAA. In other words, runners were less likely than average to take off against catchers such as these two. Intuitively, that makes sense. Where does Lucroy rank by comparison?

Over the last six seasons, Milwaukee’s man behind the plate has posted a .37 percent TRAA. With the league average TRAA being zero, Lucrory is worse than average when it comes to keeping men from taking off. In fact, when examining individual seasons, the only season in which Lucroy posted a better than average TRAA was in 2014 when he posted a -0.10 percent TRAA.

Despite being on the wrong side of the mean, there is some good news when the rate stat is convereted to runs. While he has not saved the Brewers runs by holding runners, he also has not cost the team any runs either. Over six seasons, Lucroy has had 8,324 chances to keep runners planted on their respective base. In that many chances, he has saved/cost the Brewers 0.0 runs.

Inevitably, though, the baserunners will attempt to steal a bag from the catcher. Let us take a look at Lucroy’s ability to throw men out.

Throwing from the Plate

Much like TRAA, the data for SRAA has some catchers that clearly come ahead of everyone else. Both Yadier Molina’s and Ivan Rodriguez’s, notable defensive greats, SRAA career marks make their way to the top of the pack. The data confirms what we’ve only been able to eyeball over the years. With an SRAA of -7.3 percent for Molina and -6.2 percent for Rodriguez, over the span of their careers, runners were least likely to successfully steal against either catcher. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Lucroy.

Similar to TRAA, the league average SRAA is zero. Lucroy comes in with a 0.95 percent swipe rate above average with six seasons played. Simply put, runners are more likely than average to successfully steal against Lucroy. There have only been two seasons in which he has been better than league average. In his first two seasons, 2010 and 2011, Lucroy posted a -1.4 percent and -0.05 percent SRAA, respectively. Since 2011, Lucroy has hovered above the league average.

In terms of runs saved, over the course of his career, our beloved catcher has cost the Brewers -2.8 runs. Without a doubt, swipe rate above average is Lucroy’s weakest area.

 Jonathan Lucroy: As a Whole

As Michael noted in Part 1, Lucroy is clearly a superior pitch framer. He boasts the best season ever framed going back to 1950! Aside from framing, however, Lucroy is at or near league average in blocked pitches, holding runners, and throwing out potential steals. It should be noted that being league average is not weighted equally for each stat. Again, as Michael pointed out, being slightly above replacement level in EPAA makes Lucroy worth almost one-third of a win of production. Conversely, being league average in SRAA has cost him nearly a third of a win of production. If we think about what is happening when a catcher is unsuccessful in SRAA — a runner advances to the next base — it makes sense that being at or below league average can cost more runs than pitch framing despite experiencing fewer chances of throwing a runner out.

Rare is the catcher that is overwhelmingly successful in all four stats.

Since 1950, there have only been eight catchers that have garnered over 10 wins of production from catching alone. Only four have produced at least one win from throwing out would be base-stealers. Fewer still are able to generate more than a quarter of a win simply by holding the runners. What seems to truly define an elite catcher is their ability to influence the call on pitches.

Considering that he will be catching a much younger pitching corps in 2016, in light of what Catchella has revealed, there is a new found appreciation to be had for Jonathan Lucroy.

It has been noted that pitchers adjusted to him as early as the second half of 2013; however, there has been little discussion about the success and failure of his own adjustments. Now that he has logged three full seasons at the plate, this article will take a deeper look at Segura’s adjustments at the plate in relation to the approach pitchers have taken against him.

The 2013 season was Segura’s best offensive season. In 588 at-bats, Segura triple slashed .294/.329/.423 and posted the highest TAv of his career, .265. During that season, pitchers were pitching in the lower half of the strike zone, significantly pounding the zone low and away.

In fact, according to Baseball Savant, pitchers threw in the lower-left quadrant (catcher’s POV) 27.317 percent of the time. For right-handed batters, that tends to be where they are most vulnerable, which is why some manager’s are eager to play the righty-versus-lefty matchups. However, overall in 2013, this was not the case for Segura.

With pitches that landed in the lower-left quadrant, Segura took almost 50 percent for a ball. Cumulatively, 33.5 percent were a strike of some sort.

Not surprisingly, in 2014, pitchers continued to throw low-and-away to Segura; though, he would post the worst batting average of his career. Segura triple-slashed .246/.289/.326 and saw his TAv drop to .235 — a full thirty points below from the previous season. Looking at his batted-ball profile, it’s clear that there was a massive decrease in power. In fact, his ISO went from .129 in 2013 to .080 in 2014, affirmed by the increase in softly hit balls (16.7 percent in 2013 to 25.6 percent in 2014) and the simultaneous decrease in hard hit balls (28.9 percent in 2013 to 21.1 percent in 2014). However, simply looking at the numbers does not really explain why there was a decrease in power.

I took a cursory glance at Segura’s batting stance between the two seasons and noticed a significant difference. To limit the variables, I only looked at pitches that were only in the lower-left quadrant of the strikezone, roughly the same velocity and pitch, and resulted in a groundout.

Here is his stance and swing in 2013:

And here is his stance and swing in 2014:

There is a clear difference between the two at-bats. In 2013, Segura is in a semi-squat with his weight resting on the balls of his feet. Whereas in 2014, Segura is standing almost upright and it seems that his weight is resting on his back leg. Looking closer, there is also a difference in how he holds the bat. In the first still, Segura has the bat at an angle, almost resting on his shoulder. In the second frame, he is holding the bat vertically. Due to his compact stance in 2013, Segura was able to square up pitches that broke low and away with greater ease. Contrasted against his stance in 2014, we can see that he was forced to meet the ball lower in the strikezone towards the end of his swing. What were the results of the two at-bats? The result of the first frame was a sharply hit groundball to the opposing shortstop. The result of the at-bat in the second frame was a weakly hit chopper back to the mound.

Segura did make adjustments to his swing late in the season, and it paid off in the final month of the 2014 campaign.

While this may indicate that this examination of 2014 is not conclusive, it does shed some light as to why most of 2014 was disastrous for Segura.

Finally, we turn to this past season. In 2015, Segura posted numbers that were almost identical to 2014. He ended the season with a triple-slash line of .257/.281/.336 and an even lower TAv of .218. It appears that pitchers adjusted to Segura’s swinging tendencies as they had pitched to him in the strikezone’s lower-left quadrant 31.113 percent of the time. That is a huge increase from both 2013 (~27%) and 2014 (~25%). Unfortunately, there was an increase in swing rate and a simultaneous decrease in contact rate for pitches outside of the zone.

Further compounding this issue was the fact that of the pitches in the lower-left quadrant that resulted in a ball in play, only 21.2 percent were a hit while the remaining 78.8 percent resulted in an out. Interestingly, in 2015, the National League average for pitches thrown outside the strikezone was 55.2 percent. Meanwhile, Segura received 51.15 percent of pitches in the zone.  Pitchers were four percent more likely than average to throw to Segura in the zone. There was a noticeable drop in his walk rate this season that resulted from poor plate discipline; however, that does not account for the entirety of his lukewarm 2015 season. I’m curious to see what further research may discover.

If Jean Segura is around by the time the 2016 season starts, there are a few changes I hope he makes. The first change that will benefit him is a more consistent swing. Pitchers, when facing Segura, will continue to pound the zone low and away because it is effective. If he is able to find a stance and swing that will allow him to square up against pitches on the outside corner, he may be able to add a little more zip to the ball off the bat. It may force pitchers to change their attack. Second, regardless of what pitchers decide to do against him, Segura must improve his plate discipline. That is especially true if pitchers are offering less outside of the zone to Segura than they are to the rest of the league. His walk rate has never been something to admire, especially when compared to the league average. However, his shocking 2.2 percent walk rate in 2015 is downright unacceptable considering the league-average walk rate this year was almost four times as high.

If any changes are made to his mechanics and his approach at the plate, it is unlikely we will see the Jean Segura from the first half of 2013 if there is an improvement. However, any improvement from the last two years — even if it does not measure up to his first full season — would be a step in the right direction.

The 2015 season marks the first full year of major-league ball for Nelson. As a result, this season, he has pitched the most innings of his career — 177.1 as of yesterday. The issue that plagued Nelson off and on throughout the minors had been his command. It was an issue that paid the young righty a visit again this season.

There were six games in which Nelson truly struggled. Listed above, in each of these six outings, Nelson either lasted less than 5.0 innings, or allowed more than seven hits, or both. Along with mirroring statistical traits, there lies a similar trend when looking at mechanics.

Nelson’s first run-in with command issues took place against the Reds (the fourth point from the left). Lasting only 2.1 innings, Nelson was chased off the mound after throwing sixty-nine pitches and giving up six hits and seven runs. The problem Nelson faced that game was a horizontal release point that was slightly left of the plate, from the catcher’s point of view. For a right-handed pitcher, that can be disastrous since a pitch is likely to find itself breaking directly over the plate instead of breaking further away from or further in on a batter. Interestingly, in his starts immediately preceding and immediate following, Nelson’s release point was about an inch to the right of the plate. In his April 22nd start, Nelson made 94 pitches over 8.0 innings, gave up three hits and struck out five batters. In his May 3rd start, Nelson lasted 6.2 innings and gave up six hits, but also struck out six batters.

The next three starts in which he wrestled with his command was in June. In his first start of the month, against St. Louis, Nelson’s horizontal release point was now significantly to the right of the plate.

Because he was unable to change the release point throughout the game, Nelson was compelled to stick with his fastball and his curve. Thus, compounding the poor command was also poor pitch selection as he only threw one slider. The rest of his pitches sat on the left of the plate — an area that Nelson must avoid unless he wants to see the ball hit for extra bases. Unfortunately, this issue reared its ugly head once more on June 13th.

Facing the Nationals, Nelson’s release point was once again considerably to the left of the plate. Yet again, Nelson shied away from his slider, instead sticking with his sinker and curve. The pitches resulted in ten hits as they lingered around the left side of the plate.

While Nelson was able to stabilize his horizontal release point to an extent, it was the vertical release point on his sinker that doomed him against Kansas City.

From the start of the season through his June 13th start, the average height on his sinker’s vertical release point was 6.4 feet. Against Kansas City, the vertical release point on his sinker averaged between 6.5 and 6.56 feet. Consequently, the subtle change in release point resulted in a sinker that would not sink. In fact, against the Royals, out of thirty-six sinkers thrown, only six landed lower quadrants of the strike zone. The remaining thirty landed in the middle and upper quadrant.

I examined Nelson’s command issues in his start against the Indians in the August 26th recap. The quick and dirty — should you need a reminder — was that Nelson’s horizontal release point was, once more, further to the right. As I stated in the recap, Nelson’s pitches were breaking in, and oftentimes outside of, the lower right quadrant of the strike zone.

Finally, looking at his start against Cincinnati, Nelson’s release point was — wouldn’t you guess it — further towards the left of the plate.

As I had stated in the Game 140 recap. Nelson was leaving pitches hanging on the left-hand side of the plate. This is an area that has historically plagued the young pitcher. In his start against the Reds, Nelson pitched five innings but surrendered nine hits.

Each time he was promoted in the minors, Nelson dealt with command issues. Of course, if he were not a resilient pitcher, his time in the majors would not have come. With a full season under his belt, undoubtedly, notes have been made about where his mechanics has its flaws. Heading into the offseason, this is one area in which it will behoove the young pitcher to improve.

Tonight marked the first tilt in a four-game series against the Pirates. For the Brewers, this also proved to be the second-longest game of the season. In thirteen innings played, the Brewers used eight different pitchers that struck out ten batters. Their offense tallied twelve hits but also struck out fourteen times.

The Brewers first salvo came in the first inning. Scooter Gennett led off with a double to right field. Elian Herrera’s groundout advanced Gennett to third. A subsequent groundout from Ryan Braun brought the runner home. The offense continued as Adam Lind smacked a single to center field. Tired of the small ball, Khris Davis launched a dinger over the center-field wall, giving the Brew Crew the early lead, 3-0.

The Pirates remained silent as Wily Peralta blanked the Bucs through four scoreless frames. It was in the bottom of the fifth inning that the Pirates finally put a run on the board. Up until that point, Peralta had only allowed two hits. It was a walk, a single, and two consecutive flyouts that brought the Pedro Alvarez across the plate. Unphased by the small ball, Peralta promptly picked off Francisco Cervelli to end the inning. Pittsburgh did not score again with Peralta on the mound.

TURNING POINT

As BP Milwaukee’s Ryan Romano pointed out, the bullpen has been the saving grace of this team many times over. In fact, this season, Milwaukee ranks fifth in relief DRA (3.92) — behind clubs like the Royals (3.45), Astros (3.57), and the Mets (3.87). It came as no surprise that Counsell reached out to the bullpen to relieve an exhausted Peralta.

After six innings, Peralta had thrown 89 pitches. Through those innings, Peralta’s command was tight and controlled.

Unfortunately, by the seventh inning, Peralta was clearly gassed. Out of eleven pitches thrown, only three made it into the strike zone and only one of those three was a swinging strike.

Peralta gave up a hit to Jung-Ho Kang, unleashed two wild pitches which advanced Kang to third, and then walked Starling Marte to put men on the corners. Jeremy Jeffress came in to relieve Peralta. He did a fine job of getting Pedro Alvarez and #oldfriend Aramis Ramirez to strikeout swinging. But two walks — one to Cervelli and another to Travis Snider — loaded the bases, allowed the Pirates to score, and put the tying run ninety feet from the plate. Will Smith relieved Jeffress and made quick work of Gregory Polanco, ending the inning. A sudden home run from Andrew McCutchen in the eighth closed the gap and brought the game to a tie.

An otherwise superb outing from Peralta was marred in the seventh and eighth innings. The pitching ultimately fell apart and nearly cost the Brewers their fragile lead.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

Only nine games have been played in September, but so far, Khris Davis is posting a vastly improved on-base percentage. This is likely credited to his improved walk rate. Nine games may not seem like a large enough sample to prove any indication of an improved or declining walk rate. However, the month-to-month data for Davis may indicate otherwise.

July was an odd month for Davis as he only played 17 games. Plus, his first nine games in that month were also his first nine games back after being sidelined with an injury for all of June.

Interestingly, Davis is not only showing a more patient approach at the plate, he is also showing a decreased strikeout rate — 23.7 percent in September compared to 30.1 percent in August and 37.5 percent in July. If Davis is able to maintain his walk rate while still keeping his strikeout rate low, he will be a new threat at the plate, a patient hitter with significant power.

For your immediate attention, Jimmy Nelson takes the mound on Friday against Charlie Morton. In his last start, against Cincinnati, Nelson went 5.0 innings, gave up nine hits, and only struck out three batters. His command has not been consistent. Against the Reds, his pitches were ending up on the left side of the strike zone, an area that has been historically troublesome for him.

The resulting factor has been an inconsistent release point. When facing the Indians on August 26th, I pointed out that there was a slight tweak to his release point that cause his pitches to break low and to the right of the plate. Against the Reds, his release point was noticeably higher and slightly to the left from his release point when his command is solid.

With the plethora of things that went wrong, it too quickly dismisses the many things that went right. Indeed, the offense has been performing rather well; though, it is the poor pitching that has been the bane of this team. When looking back on the 2015 season, as painful as it may be, remember that this team is not as bad as it seems. Although Milwaukee is not likely to contend for a playoff in 2016, the Brewers have the potential to be in good shape next year.

At the beginning of the season, the Brewers were absolutely dreadful in the most pertinent run-scoring stat: on-base percentage. However, if you recall in my recap of game one-hundred ten, there has been consistent improvement in getting men on base. In fact, with the exception of the Pirates, as the Brewers have improved with getting men on the bags, the other teams in the division have either seen their on-base percentage decline or remain inconsistent. Of course, it is not enough that men get on base. Bringing those base runners around to score is the ultimate goal, and it is another area in which the Brewers have done well thus far.

Throughout the season, Milwaukee has been more successful than their division at hitting for extra bases with runners in scoring position and are only second to Pittsburgh in overall hits with men in scoring position. In fact, since May, the only team that has outscored the Brewers has been the Pirates, who have scored 457 runs to Milwaukee’s 450. Above all else, the offense has been and will be fine.

If we look at run differential from month-to-month, the only month in which the Brew Crew had a positive run differential was in July. Despite outperforming and improving more so than most of the NL Central in on-base percentage and runs scored, the Brewers were also really good at giving up runs. Moreover, when looking at how many games the Brewers have won in relation to the number of runs scored and runs allowed, it becomes clear that the sheer number of runs allowed has stymied any offense that the Milwaukee has been able to muster.

Essentially, the Brewers have to score at least four runs to avoid a loss. Unfortunately, the team also has to prevent their opponent from scoring at least four runs to ensure that they can maybe secure a win.

The problem lies foremost with the starting pitching. With the exception of Nelson and Jungmann, the rotation has been abysmal. In fact, Milwaukee’s starting five rank 26th in the league in DRA, 21st in FRA, and 20th in VORP — 4.73, 4.55, and 62.0, respectively. How has that cost the team? When compared to the league average, including the bullpen, the pitching has afforded the competition 35.1 adjusted pitching runs. Likewise, the defense has been spotty at best. With a defensive efficiency of .696, Milwaukee is in poor company hanging in the bottom third of defensive rankings with Boston, Philadelphia, and Colorado. When looking at the league average for defensive runs saved, the Brewers (-27 rDRS) are ahead of only the Yankees (-33 rDRS) and Phillies (-84 rDRS) in adjusted defensive runs saved above average. It may seem as if the Brewers have a tall order to turn things around with their pitching woes being compounded by their defensive shortcomings, but there are a few things to keep in mind as we head towards the offseason.

First, the rotation, more specifically, Matt Garza, will not continue to suck. This is only the second season in which Matt Garza has posted an ERA in the 5.xx range and also been worth negative WARP (the first time was in his rookie season when he only pitched fifty innings), making this season look flukey. As our own J.P. Breen pointed out, his “underlying numbers suggest a bounce back” to his career norms as a mid-rotation starter.

Second, this season’s strong showing from Taylor Jungmann bodes well for next season. It is difficult to remain objective when discussing Jungmann; after all, he is boasting a 2.48 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 3.01 DRA in his rookie season. More impressive, however, is his pitching acumen. Eno Sarris wrote about his calculation regarding his pitch sequencing. Having that kind of self-awareness so early in his career will pay dividends as he continues to mature. Having him near the top of the rotation, with Jimmy Nelson pitching soon after, will give the Brewers a one-two punch that has been missing.

In the last game in a two-game series against Cleveland, the Brewers were hoping to avoid the “sweep.” Despite putting seven hits on the board, the offense limped through nine innings as Milwaukee only mustered two runs across the plate. Unfortunately, Jimmy Nelson was just as dull as the offense. His line for the evening was 3.1 innings pitched, 83 pitches thrown, four strikeouts, and eight walks.

Although the Brewers drew first blood in the top of the second, the Indians capitalized on Nelson’s struggles in the bottom half of the inning. After seeing their first two batters go down, the Indians saw Abraham Almonte, Jerry Sands, and Jose Ramirez reach base; the latter two were both walked to load the bases. Jason Kipnis, who eats right-handed pitching for breakfast, smacked a double to left which brought home Almonte and Sands. And thanks to a throwing error by Khris Davis, Ramirez also scored, putting the Indians ahead 3-1.

Nelson continued to struggle in the bottom of the third. Again, the right-hander was able to get two early outs to start the inning. In between the first two outs, Lonnie Chrisenhall hit a double to center and advanced after Yan Gomes grounded out to third. A wild pitch would bring Chrisenhall home. Nelson followed up the wild pitch with a walk to Almonte and Sands. He eventually got out of the inning by getting Ramirez to fly out to left.

TURNING POINT

An uncharacteristic lack of command plagued Nelson from the start, but it was the second and third innings that were the turning point of the game. Nelson slogged through the first – throwing nineteen pitches – but he was able to get through without allowing a run. It was in the second and third in which he truly labored.

It took 50 pitches for him to get through both innings. Only eight of those pitches were called for a strike. Regardless of the pitch thrown, he struggled to find the strike zone.

Nelson had only given up four hits through this point in the game. However, each hit either preceded or was followed by walks that were unfortunately timed.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

When looking at the pitches made by Nelson tonight, there was a difference in release points when compared to his previous four starts. This might explain his poor command.

Compared to his previous four starts, Nelson’s release point in tonight’s game is noticeably lower and to the right of the catcher. When looking at where his pitches were landing in relation to the strikezone, pitches were ending up on the lower right corner of the plate. According to Brewers beat writer Adam McCalvy, Nelson knew something was off all night.

Nelson frustrated he couldn’t get on top of pitches. “As far as things that I can control, that’s the worst game I’ve had in a long time.”

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) August 27, 2015

We will have to wait for his next start to see if this was the case and if any adjustments have been made.

The Brew Crew will have the day off tomorrow before they host the Reds at home for a three-game series over the weekend. Starting Friday, Brewers fans will have the pleasure of seeing Taylor Jungmann on the hill. In 84.2 innings pitched, Jungmann is posting a 2.66 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 3.05 DRA. Cincinnati and Milwaukee are firmly planted in the NL Central cellar. With Raisel Iglesias on the mound for the Reds, the Brewers have the advantage if the game comes down to a pitcher’s duel.

First pitch on Friday is 7:10 PM CT.

Tyler Cravy took the hill for the Brewers tonight and struggled mightily from the get-go. Despite getting the first two outs in four batters faced, Cravy had trouble keeping men off the basepaths in the first inning. Unfortunately, by the time Cravy got through his fifth batter of the inning (yikes!), the bases were loaded for former Brewers prospect Cole Gillespie. The matchup favored Cravy as Gillespie’s slash line against right-handed pitching had been .274/.322/.405. But of course, #YouCantPredictBaseball, and the 31-year old lined a triple into right field, sending home Ichiro, Prado, and Dietrich. With the tone set and the damage done, Cravy got the next batter out to end the top of the first.

If you had stopped watching before the start of the fourth inning, no one could have blamed you. By the time the Brewers put a run on the board, Cravy had given up four additional runs through the next two innings. Ryan Braun kicked off the bottom of the fourth with a single to right, though he would be the first out on a fielder’s choice. However, a subsequent series of hits from Davis, Rogers, Perez, Herrera, and Segura helped the Brewers chip away at the Marlins’ lead. By the end of the inning, Milwaukee produced four runs, making the score 7-4.

TURNING POINT

Sadly, the turning point for the game came in the following inning, the fifth. David Goforth had entered the game to relieve the struggling Tyler Cravy. The Brewers recalled Goforth from Triple-A on Friday and he was making his first major-league appearance since July 26th. The right-hander inherited a bases-loaded mess in the top of the third but managed to squash the threat. He navigated a scoreless fourth inning, as well. Though the top of the fifth started off incredibly well — getting Tomas Telis to groundout and striking out Jeff Mathis — the wheels fell off once Dee Gordon got on base and promptly stole second. Ichiro singled, which sent Gordon to third and thereby left second base open for the still speedy Suzuki, who stole second off Goforth. With two speedsters in scoring position, it only took a line drive single from Prado to put the Marlins ahead 9-4.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

What doomed Goforth was an errant 95-mph fastball that sat too high in the zone. Prado’s single was the death knell on an otherwise solid two innings pitched by the rookie reliever. Keeping Gordon and Ichiro in check is difficult for any reliever, even more so for a rookie such as Goforth. Currently, Goforth is posting a 2.66 percent TRAA (Takeoff Rate Above Average) and 4.76 DRA, indicating that he is allowing baserunners to take off quite often while he is pitching and allowing them to score as a result. Granted these numbers are being looked at after only 6.1 innings pitched, but it will be interesting to see if the 26-year old rookie is able to keep baserunners in check as he progresses in the majors. It’s often a skill that young pitchers struggle to learn.

For your immediate attention, tomorrow’s game will feature Wily Peralta facing off against Tom Koehler. Peralta is a victim of the same problem that plagues Goforth, emboldening baserunners to steal. Peralta’s TRAA on the season is 5.04 percent and he will be facing a team that ranks first in the league in Baserunning Runs (BRR). If the Brewers hope to avoid a sweep, they must put the game away early to give Peralta some breathing room instead of trying to rally in the ninth, as they attempted to tonight.

After Milwaukee took a 1-0 lead in the first inning, the Brewers and Padres remained locked in a stalemate for the next frame and a half despite putting men on the basepaths. The third inning was shaping up to look like the previous two as Matt Garza started things off by retiring the side. The Brewers kicked off the bottom half of the third with a lineout. However, after Ryan Braun walked and following a single from Adam Lind, Khris Davis opened the floodgates with a dinger over the right-field wall (+.161), putting the Brew Crew up 4-0.

Davis is hitting .236/.321/.458 this season. Yet, when he is facing right-handed pitching, like he did against Despaigne today, he is destroying baseballs. In fact, if we parse his numbers even further, he is absolutely dominating right-handed pitchers at home.

Of course, there is a difference of 43 at-bats between his home and away games versus righties, which could explain the variance between his splits to a degree. However, the fact that he is striking out significantly more while on the road is more likely to be the cause behind such drastic difference in numbers. Whatever the reason, Khris Davis, must keep doing what he has been doing at home and try to take some of it on the road.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA)

The Brewers were on top for the entire game, and decidedly so from nearly the beginning. It is easy to forget that in the top of the second, the Padres had a chance to put the Brewers on the ropes. At the top of the frame, Matt Garza served up a walk to Justin Upton. Despite getting Brett Wallace to strike out, Derek Norris singled to center which put runners on the corners. With only one out tallied at this point, the Padres were in a spot to make something happen. Of course, in true Padres fashion, nothing happened. Clint Barmes bunted out to Adam Lind (-.074), setting up a two-out at-bat for the perennially bad Melvin Upton. Upton would ground out, thus ending the inning.

KEY MOMENT

The top of the second was a tenuous inning for both teams. For the Padres, the inning could not have started off any better. Justin Upton’s at-bat resulted in a walk after seeing the first pitch drop in for a ball, fouling off the next three, and then watching the proceeding three pitches land out of the zone. This is where the game could have had an entirely different outcome. After walking Upton with three straight balls and starting off Wallace’s at-bat with a ball, Garza appeared to have trouble finding the zone. So far this season, Wallace has been punishing right-handed pitching. An errant pitch by Garza would have meant trouble. If Wallace was able to get at least single, then the Padres would have had the tying run in Upton at either second or third with Derek Norris at the plate.

Instead, Garza went after him with a three fastballs and a curve, two pitches against which Wallace is likely to whiff.

It may look as if Wallace has drastically improved when facing hard-thrown pitches; however, he has only made five plate appearances in August. By getting Wallace to strike out, this left the speedy Upton (+3.8 BRR) at first instead of in scoring position.

TREND TO WATCH

Including today, over the last three games, the Brewers managed to get eleven hits on the board. In fact, in the last two weeks — arbitrary endpoint, I know —  there have only been two games in which Milwaukee has garnered less than six hits in a game. More importantly, if we take a look at the team’s on-base percentage, the best indicator of run-scoring, then there is hope for Milwaukee as they have steadily improved their OBP month-to-month in 2015. Here is how they have shaped up compared to the rest of the division.

Only six games have been played in August thus far. Nonetheless, it is a positive sign when the team that is in the cellar is improving in a critical offensive category while the team with the best record in baseball is having difficulty getting on base. That is not to say that the Brewers are on their way to close a twenty-three-game gap, as their issues go well beyond getting on base, but it is nice to see the lineup come to life.

COMING UP NEXT

The Brewers will host their division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, over the weekend. Tyler Cravy will face Lance Lynn. Cravy, who has pitched fifteen innings this season, was recalled from Triple-A Colorado Springs after Kyle Lohse was assigned to the bullpen. His first taste of The Show was in June when he pitched against the Cardinals. In that performance, Cravy went seven innings, gave up one run over four hits and struck out six batters.

St. Louis’ Lynn is coming off a hot June and July campaign. In 55.2 innings pitched, Lynn posted a 2.12 ERA. His last start was a departure from what his opponents have faced, giving up seven hits and four runs through five innings. It was more than likely a fluke as he has otherwise been solid throughout the season. The Brewers will have a tough hill to climb.

First pitch is at 7:10 pm CT.

Will Smith entered the top of the eighth in relief of Jeremy Jeffress. Smith inherited two baserunners, Addison Rusell and Dexter Fowler. Smith was able to retire rookie Kyle Schwarber with a swinging strikeout on a 0-2 slider. Chris Denorfia followed up with a flyout to right field, almost escaping the threat. With Anthony Rizzo at the plate, on a 1-1 count, Smith served up a four-seamer right over the plate. Rizzo wasted no time crushing the innards out of the ball, putting the Cubs up 3-2 and wasting a gem from starter Jimmy Nelson (+.605 WPA).

The home run given up by Smith was uncharacteristic of him, as he has only given up one other home run this season. After setting up with a slider and changeup off the plate, the fastball looked like it was a pitch that had missed its spot.

The home run pitch was in the middle of the zone, just above the knees, exactly where Rizzo has been destroying baseballs all season. He has also been hitting over .300 against lefties in 2015. All of this resulted in the key moment of the game.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA)

The Cubs started the top of the eighth, trailing 2-0. Jeremy Jeffress had trouble locating his fastball, as he pitched three-straight balls to Addison Russell. On a 3-1 count, Russell hit a single up the middle. Fowler’s at-bat resulted in a single as well, putting runners on first and second. Counsell sent out Will Smith to relieve Jeffress in hopes of getting out of the inning unscathed. With Kyle Schwarber at the plate, Smith delivered a fastball that was hit foul. Smith followed with an 82 mph slider that landed for a strike. With the count in his favor, Smith pitched another low-80s slider that got Schwarber to whiff, putting the innings end within one out (-.097 WPA).

It was solid pitch sequence by Smith. Schwarber, who made his major-league debut last month, struggles against breaking pitches. Granted, there is not a lot of data to work with, but in the month that he has been playing in the bigs, Schwarber’s whiff rate against breaking pitches has increased from 8.33 percent in June to 23.08 percent in July. Smith, whose slider is making left-handed batters look foolish, used the pitch much to Schwarber’s disadvantage.

KEY MOMENT

Most of the positives in this game will be mired by the fact that the Brewers blew the lead with one out left in the eighth. I get that. But it should be pointed out that Jimmy Nelson pitched one-hit ball through the top of the seventh inning. The only hit he allowed happened in the top of the second when the dastardly Anthony Rizzo smacked a double to left. Aside from the lone hit, Nelson only issued two walks through his first six innings — he would eventually walk one more batter before his night was over. Through 104 pitches, though, Nelson was in control.

TREND TO WATCH

Looking at the entire season, Nelson is pitching about as well as we can expect. However, his a 3.97 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and 3.99 DRA does not tell the whole story. With the exception of a rough June, the batting average against his hard and breaking pitches has been pretty good for a back-end pitcher. It’s one of the main reasons why scouts suggest his upside is that of a number-two or number-three starter.

Digging deeper, however, while the batting average against Nelson has fluctuated,  the isolated power against his pitches has steadily decreased.

Batters may continue to get a hit off of Nelson, but when they do and if this trend holds, expect them to be weakly hit. It’s one of the main reasons why he has posted a 1.64 ERA in the month of July. He’s poised to put together a banner second half, hopefully giving him momentum for the 2016 season. The Brewers need him to develop into a quality starting pitcher, and he’s starting to flash his high-end potential this month.

COMING UP NEXT

Taylor Jungmann will face off against Jason Hammel. Jungmann is pitching well-beyond expectations. For those of us with a rooting interest in the team, it is difficult to temper those expectations, when he has been one of the better pitchers in the rotation, especially when he is part of the contingent that represents the future.

Fortunately for the Brewers, who have struggled offensively as of late, Hammel has been struggling since the end of June. In the past month, Hammel is sporting an ugly 4.10 ERA. Some have suggested that he hasn’t looked the same since returning from injury, and the numbers reflect that concern. The Brewers will look to capitalize on Hammel’s recent skid and right the ship.

First pitch is at 7:10 pm CT.

The inning started with both Milwaukee and Los Angeles scoreless after four frames. On a 1-0 count, Jean Segura slapped a grounder up the middle for a single. In the next at-bat, Scooter Gennett took the count to two balls and two strikes. Dodgers pitcher, Mike Bolsinger had been struggling with the command on his curve all season. Gennett’s patience at the plate forced Bolsinger to rely on his slider as the next three pitches were all sliders that crossed the plate at 79 mph. On the third slider of the at-bat, Gennett was able to put the ball in play with a grounder that went into right field. Bolsinger’s first wild pitch of the inning advanced Gennett and Segura to second and third, respectively. However, it was on Bolsinger’s second wild pitch of the evening that put the Brewer’s ahead 2-0, after Segura had scored on the previous at-bat.

Bolsinger has been unable to develop a command of the strikezone, although that did not manifest itself tonight. Exacerbating his control issues is the fact that he is a predictable pitcher. Bolsinger throws his cutter and his curve almost exclusively. When neither pitch works for him, he relies on his low velocity slider — a slider that has the same velocity as his curve, so they almost become interchangeable. In the top of the fifth, out of seventeen pitches thrown by Bolsinger, eleven were curves. He abandoned his cutter after one went for a ball and Segura slapped the only other cut-fastball for a single. After watching two breaking balls land outside of the strikezone, Gennett took advantage of an errant breaking ball, placing the only two batters that would eventually score on base.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA): Down 3-2, and with Ryan Braun as the tying run on second base, Adam Lind grounded out to short for the final out in the top of the eighth (-.080 WPA).

It was a rough night for Lind as he went 0-for-4 with one strikeout. It was an uncharacteristic night for Lind, who has been consistently good all season. It is unfortunate that in tonight’s game, his only plate appearance with a runner in scoring position resulted in a weak groundout. Despite grounding out three times tonight, Lind’s overall ground-ball per ball-in-play rate is on the decline.

Since June 10th, Lind has been hitting .300 in his last 100 at-bats, and that’s largely due to the fact that he’s hitting the ball on the ground less often. For a guy who isn’t fleet of foot, that represents an improved batted-ball profile.

KEY MOMENT

In the top of the sixth, the Dodgers were able to get two men on board with only one out. The Brewers had just taken the lead in the previous inning. Jimmy Nelson was pitching a no-hitter heading into the bottom half of the sixth. With two on and one out, this was the first real threat posed by the Dodgers.

With a red-hot Justin Turner at the plate, Jimmy Nelson did a fantastic job alternating between his slider and his sinker. This season, Justin Turner is hitting .200 and slugging .233 against all the sliders he has faced. Even more startling is that his power is almost entirely sapped as his ISO against the slider is .033. Up until that point, the Dodgers top play was Howie Kendrick’s single (+.061 WPA) prior to Turner’s at-bat. Keeping Turner off balance at the plate ultimately led to the force out at first, which dismantled any potential rally (-.063 WPA).

TREND TO WATCH

A few weeks ago, our fearless leader, J.P. Breen, wrote about Jimmy Nelson’s struggles out of the stretch. Nelson was able to work his way out of a few jams during tonight’s game.

The first was in the bottom of the second. After walking Yasiel Puig and Yasmani Grandal, Nelson faced Alex Guerrero. Despite getting behind in the count, Nelson attacked Guerrero with his sinker. Guerrero eventually took the bait and grounded into an inning-ending double play. Then in the bottom of the fifth, Nelson got himself in trouble again. Grandal reached after being hit by a pitch and Puig would reach base, eventually reaching third. Nelson struck out Guerrero, again attacking him with his sinker, peppered with a couple of sliders. Sadly, Nelson saw the game slip from him after a throwing error that would have ended the inning instead kept it alive.

It was a thrill to see the young righty dominate a stacked lineup. Even when he was in trouble, Nelson coolly pitched his way out for the majority of the night. It was errant defense that failed him. That’s not to say that he is suddenly the savior of the rotation; however, it is a positive sign of what is possible with Nelson on the mound.

COMING NEXT

Taylor Jungmann takes the mound on Saturday at 9:10 PM CT. His 2.43 ERA does not lineup well with his 3.53 FIP and 3.16 DRA (Deserved Run Average). Keep in mind that this is Jungmann’s rookie season. While his ERA will not sparkle forever, the fact that his true skill level thus far is hovering just above a 3.00 DRA is promising.

Saturday’s start is against Brandon Beachy. He is making his first start after recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. As stated in previous recaps, Jungmann will have to watch his command as this Dodgers lineup is one that can easily punish pitching mistakes. The Brewers should find Saturday’s match-up favorable, provided they are able to score more than two runs.