The first thing that stands out about the 22-year-old Supak is his sheer physical presence. At 6’5” and 235 pounds, he cuts a classic, old-school silhouette on the mound. The guy looks like a throwback workhorse, capable of soaking up 200 decent innings with a rubbery arm and a smooth, repeatable delivery. It’s a great starting point for a pitching prospect.

What may hold Supak back from becoming a rotation mainstay is the quality of his raw stuff, which is largely average. Even at the time of his trade three years ago, Supak’s frame was more or less maxed out. Accordingly, the big Texan’s fastball velocity hasn’t really budged as he’s grown older; Supak still operates right around 90 or 91 mph, with the ability to reach back on occasion and crank it up to 94. It’s a decent pitch, as fastballs go, but hardly an elite offering. Supak has, however, taken some steps forward with his secondaries. What was once a fringe-y curveball has turned into a legitimate weapon; it now profiles as no worse than average, with good downward break and great velocity separation off of his heater (the curve spins in at 75-78 mph). His changeup, too, has been much improved over the last several years, traveling from non-existent all the way up to fringe-average. It should, at worst, become a “show-me” pitch in the majors, which may be just enough to allow Supak to stick in a starting rotation. At best, it could become average; it’s a little firm at the moment, but it comes in right around 85 mph and is at least capable of disrupting a hitter’s timing.

Supak has always shown good command of his pitches, leading to some suspicion that the solid results he produced in the low minors had more to do with the inexperience of his opponents than his own prowess on the mound. (Through A-ball, pitchers with good command and middling stuff routinely fudge their way through to impressive stat lines; once they reach the upper minors, more advanced hitters start to hit back.) That Supak was able to maintain his effectiveness as a 22-year-old getting his first taste of Double-A last season lends some optimism to his outlook.

His performance in the Southern League becomes even more impressive when it’s examined in halves. Supak made 16 starts for the Shuckers last year after his late-May promotion, with a nice cumulative ERA of 2.91. But in the first eight of those starts, he allowed 23 earned runs in 39.7 innings for a 5.22 ERA. Opposing batters lit him up for a .720 OPS. Wins don’t matter, but Supak was also winless in six decisions during that span.

The next eight starts were a little different. From July 16 through the end of the season, Supak pitched 47.0 innings and allowed a measly five earned runs. Opposing batters struggled to an anemic .527 OPS. His ERA during that time was 0.96, and he won each of the six decisions into which his performance factored.

If that line in the sand seems a little too convenient to be taken seriously, well, sure. We’re talking about a pretty small sample here, for one. I wasn’t present at any of Supak’s starts, so I’m unable to comment on how his stuff, or his demeanor, or the defense behind him, looked during that rough first taste of Double-A. For better or worse, I’m relying on the numbers and some scant video, neither of which always paints the full picture. (Exhibit A: Supak’s swinging strike percent actually edged downwards during his dominant late-season stretch.) Even so, those sorts of stats tend to jump off the page.

Add them all up, and we’re left with this: 25 games started and a career-high 137.7 innings pitched across two levels in 2018. 123 strikeouts, 44 walks, and only six home runs allowed. A cumulative ERA of 2.48, including his time in Carolina. DRA, it must be noted, is a little more measured in assessing Supak’s 2018 performance, pegging him as a league-average pitcher for the Mudcats, where his 4.69 Deserved Run Average stands in contrast to a glittering 1.76 ERA and his 99.7 DRA- is hardly exciting (a 100 DRA- is league and park average, and the lower the number, the better). But DRA also acknowledges that Supak turned it on after his promotion, finishing with a 3.73 DRA and a tidy 79.2 DRA- in Biloxi. That kind of performance is worth protecting.

Supak will start the 2019 in the minors, perhaps even back in Biloxi. But his above-average command and fastball-curveball combo make him a solid candidate to join the bullpen shuttle to the big leagues as early as mid-season. If 2018 taught us anything, it’s that the Brewers know how to make good use of their players with option years, rotating them between Triple-A and Milwaukee as needed.

The bullpen may well be Supak’s longterm home, too. If he performs well next year, he’ll have a chance to claim a spot as a middle-reliever or swingman for the foreseeable future. His stuff may also tick up a notch or two; instead of cresting at 94 mph, like he does as a starter, that number may become more of a baseline in relief.

There’s also a chance that Supak develops into an effective back-end starter, of the kind that the Brewers have had so much success with lately. He’s got that classic innings-eater frame, but limiting him to two trips through the batting order could do wonders for his ability to prevent runs. What’s more valuable: 200 innings with a 4.50 ERA, or 150 innings with a 3.80 ERA?

Supak has flown under the radar a bit in recent years. He’s pitched well, but not spectacularly; his ascent has been slower and less noticeable than those of 2016 Brandon Woodruff, 2017 Corbin Burnes, and even 2018 Zack Brown. But it has been steady. Now, he’s knocking at the door. Add his name alongside those of Woodruff, Burnes, Brown, Peralta, and others, and it’s clearer than ever that it’s time to retire the years-old narrative that the Brewers can’t develop good arms. Supak and his peers say otherwise.

On the surface, these are good outcomes. These are the outcomes that fans expected when the Brewers drafted Ray fifth overall in 2016—the club’s highest selection since Ryan Braun in 2005. On the surface, everything is fine.

Peel off the top layer, though, and all is not well. In 2017, Corey Ray batted .238 in his second tour of the class Advanced A Carolina League, on a well above average .346 BABIP. Ray struck out in 31 percent of his plate appearances, and ran a distinctly underwhelming .254 TAv. He slugged .367, which would have put him somewhere between Alcides Escobar and Dee Gordon had he produced that number in the major leagues. He is still three long, hard steps from the major leagues. These is not the outcomes that fans expected when the Brewers drafted Ray fifth overall in 2016.

So which is the real Corey Ray? The one who coasts along to flattering accolades on the strength of his draft pedigree, athleticism, and sweet, left-handed swing? Or the one who hasn’t figured out how to hit professional pitching after over 750 plate appearances?

Ultimately, Ray will have to answer those questions in 2018. He’ll be one of the most hawkishly-monitored prospects throughout the game. In order to assert himself in a strong Brewers system that’s packed to the gills with toolsy outfielders, he needs to produce. In the meantime, we can look to his Fall League performance for hints at what the future may hold. Across 15 games and 55 ABs with the Salt River Rafters, Ray exhibited all the traits that led the Brewers to call his name in 2016—and some familiar red flags, too.

Ray started his time as a Rafter with a bang, knocking a double off Cardinals September call-up (and number 39 mid-season prospect) Sandy Alcantara in his very first at bat. In his next 25 plate appearances, Ray was hitless, failed to draw a walk, and struck out six times, leading to a woeful .038 batting average.

Over his next eight games, Ray hit .367 across 30 at bats with five walks against nine strikeouts. He cracked a two-run homer and added a pair of doubles and three stolen bases. In the Fall Stars game last Saturday, Ray batted second and hustled out an infield single in the first inning off Mitch Keller. He proceeded to steal second, and then third, base. In his next three at bats he struck out swinging twice and drew a walk.

In all, Ray’s performance in the AFL has intrigued, frustrated, and inspired. His potential is clear; his limitations equally so. Since his draft day, he’s answered questions about his glove, blossoming into a comfortably above-average defensive outfielder (note his 12.7 FRAA in 2017). But his prototypical “advanced college bat” has struggled with making contact and tapping into his plus raw power. While his future could still be plenty bright, it could also be that of a glove-first fourth outfielder. (For giggles, check out Ray’s comparable players, including Austin Jackson, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Brett Phillips.)

Next year will be a big one for Ray. Center field remains an area of interest for the major league club; a strong performance could send the first-round pick rocketing up the depth chart. But if Ray can’t find consistency with his bat, he’ll find himself buried behind other outfield options. For now, he’s riding a hot streak in the AFL with eight games to play. Time will tell if it’s the beginning of an awakening or a glimpse into what could have been.

The 2017 Carolina Mudcats roster is loaded with talent and potential. And despite his self-confessed ambivalence to results, starting pitcher Corbin Burnes has been one of the most impressive producers of the first two months for the Mudcats. Burnes, as you might expect from a prospect still at the High-A level, still has a ways to go until he’s a Major League caliber player. But Burnes’ dominance over the Midwest League through May makes him one of the most exciting names in an exciting farm system. The Brewers just promoted this exciting righty to Class-AA Biloxi.

Coming into this season, there were concerns about Burnes’s future role. He appeared in twelve games across two levels in 2016, starting six of them, and posted significantly better splits as a relief pitcher. Back in February, he attributed that discrepancy to pure luck. Burnes was, and still is, confident in his future as a starting pitcher. Nine starts into the 2017 campaign, the numbers back this self-confidence up.

Burnes did not come out of the Carolina bullpen, but he will tandem with Tayler Williams in Biloxi. All nine of his Carolina appearances were starts. In those nine starts he’s 5-0, and he’s put up an ERA of 1.00 and a WHIP of 0.93. After struggling with wildness for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers last season, Burnes is striking out 3.33 hitters for every walk this time around. DRA of 1.82 suggests that, while he’s gotten a little lucky, he’s still pitching at an ace level.

As Jack Conness noted at BP Milwaukee in February, Burnes has an intense nature and a work ethic to match. He’s also got a four-pitch arsenal, and some scouts feel that all four pitches could develop into Major League caliber offerings. There are concerns yet about his consistency and mechanics, but it’s not hard to see him developing into a valuable piece of a playoff pitching staff.

During the month of May, Burnes has turned on the afterburners. (You’re welcome, future Brewers play-by-play guys.) He’s picked up four of his five wins, posted an ERA of 0.55 for the month, and catapulted his name into any and all discussions of the Brewers’ future plans.

Burnes started off his month on the 4th against the Frederick Keys, affiliate of the Baltimore Orioles. In his final start of April the Keys had touched him up for three earned runs in 5.3 innings, easily his worst start of the year. But this time around, Burnes shut Frederick out over 6 2/3, surrendering just one hit and striking out five. That was Burnes’ wildest start of the month: he walked three, but the only time Frederick even threatened was the top of the second. A leadoff single and one-out walk, plus a ground ball, left two runners in scoring position. But Burnes got Josh Hart swinging to end the threat, and Frederick wouldn’t score again until the ninth when Carolina already had a seven-run lead.

Six days later, he toed the rubber in Lynchburg to take on the Hillcats, a Cleveland farm team. Burnes lasted six innings even this time around, and again held his assignment scoreless for the night. He struck out just three but only walked one, and the Mudcats won the seven-inning game, 2-0, as part of a doubleheader sweep.

On the 16th, Burnes took on the Down East Wood Ducks, part of the Texas Rangers organization, and his scoreless streak was snapped in the first inning as LeDarious Clark tripled and came in to score. But the Mudcats opened up a 9-1 lead in the bottom of the first, effectively ending the game (which finished 11-2). Staked to the comfortable lead, Burnes ate up seven innings, scattering seven hits and giving up just the one run. He walked just a single batter once again, and struck out five. It wasn’t his most dominant start, but it further established something we already know about Burnes: he’s capable of digging deep and working out of jams on the nights he doesn’t have his best stuff.

And speaking of Corbin Burnes’s best stuff, the Chicago White Sox-affiliated Winston-Salem Dash ran into a buzz saw on May 21st. Burnes once again tossed seven innings, and this time he was masterful: three hits, one walk, and ten punchouts. Unfortunately, his counterpart Tanner Banks was just as good, going for eight innings, four hits, no walks, five strikeouts. The game went to extra innings, denying Burnes a five-start, five-win mark for the month. Fortunately, however, the Mudcats broke the scoreless drought in the top of the tenth with a three-spot to win.

Last Friday, Burnes improved to 5-0 on the season at home against the Myrtle Beach Pelicans. This was possibly the biggest game of Burnes’s May, as the Pelicans are the High-A affiliate of the Cubs. Burnes went six strong innings, making it the fifth time in May he lasted at least that long. After giving up two hits to start the game (and lead to a first-inning run), he settled down, keeping Myrtle Beach hitless the rest of his watch by walking just one and striking out six.

Burnes has drawn plenty of attention from industry scouts in the early going of the season. He missed BP’s Top 10 list for the Brewers but over at Fangraphs, where the list went up to 25, Burnes slid in as number 18. They commend his competitive attitude and athleticism, making note of his plus fielding on the mound. But his calling card is “a four-pitch mix led by a mid-80s changeup and slider, both of which have above-average potential.” Burnes’s curveball is clearly the fourth offering of the bunch, and will either need to be smoothed out mechanically (he has a tendency to change his arm angle, tipping the pitch) or retired entirely. Due to his high-effort delivery and inconsistent control, they noted the possibility that he ends up in the bullpen, but ultimately saw him coming through as a back-end starter.

BP’s Craig Goldstein wrote about Burnes in the May 9 edition of Notes from the Field and, as this was early on into Burnes’ burning May, he was probably the most critical evaluator of the bunch. He praised Burnes’s “lanky frame,” noting that he appears “capable of adding good weight,” but was unimpressed with his “inconsistent mechanics,” noting that he “flew open frequently” and “located well when he wasn’t flying open.” In Goldstein’s evaluation, Burnes’s fastball and slider are unmistakably his two best pitches, with the curveball as a “tertiary offering; show-me pitch.” His changeup either never made it out of the bag, or was used so infrequently that Goldstein didn’t see it as being worth noting. Ultimately, Goldstein “could easily envision [Burnes] as a reliever with a FB/SL repertoire.”

Last week, in the big weekend Minor League Update, BP’s Mark Anderson gave Burnes a write-up as well. He agreed that Burnes’s fastball is the carrying tool in the repertoire, but also noted that he has “three secondary pitches that are all slowly improving.” Like the other scouts, Anderson agreed that Burnes “needs work and may need extended time at each of the upper-level minor league stops before he’s ready,” and agreed with Fangraphs in that “there’s a chance the Brewers have a number four starter in the making.”

On the same day, Eric Longerhagen of FanGraphs included a quick blurb on Burnes in his Daily Prospect Notes: “The fiery Burnes is starting to look like a bit of a steal in last year’s fourth round and has a 1.00 ERA over nine starts at High-A. His frame is filling out and he’s sitting 92-94 with a chance for three average secondaries (maybe a 55 curveball) and average command. He’s athletic, fields his position well, and profiles toward the back of a rotation.”

Longerhagen also provided video of Burnes, which is incredibly helpful for our purposes. He’s certainly commanding the strike zone better than he did in his pro debut last season. This could be a sign that his mechanics are starting to come together, or it could be a sign that he’s on a hot streak. Let’s investigate:

We can clearly see where Burnes’s inconsistency roots from. His pitching motion has a dual trigger. His hands move down from his chest to his waist, and he rocks his weight onto his front foot off to the side of the mound. The inconsistency starts here. Sometimes, these two motions happen simultaneously. Sometimes, Burnes drops his hands up to a half second before his lower body kicks into gear. These two moving parts need to me working synchronously, ideally with no variance whatsoever. That is not the case, which means that sometimes Burnes’s lower body needs to play catch-up to the top part of his delivery. This leads to the “flying open” that Craig Goldstein took note of.

The good news is that, with proper coaching and tireless repetition, Burnes’s timing issues should become a thing of the past. This should lead directly to more consistent command of all of his pitches. As the month of May proves, when Burnes can keep from allowing free passes he can dominate the game and keep opposing offenses at bay.

The Conness profile of Burnes this February provided that opening quote to explain that Burnes tries to mentally focus on process and preparation, since those will lead to consistently positive results, rather than focusing on positive results, which can sometimes just be a lucky hot streak. With any other 22-year-old pitcher, it would be easy to look at the gaudy numbers, and the still-flawed mechanics, and worry that this run of success is the worst thing that could happen to his long-term prospects. But in this case, the magical May just means that more eyes are paying attention as Burnes grinds out the incremental improvements that transform a High-A arm into a big league starter.