Last night (August 17th, 2018) was an absolute travesty as Craig Counsell allowed Jordan Lyles, who is bad and has a career 5.35 ERA, to pitch multiple innings in a one run game. In his second inning of work after the offense managed to claw their way back to a single run deficit, Lyles would load the bases on a single, a hit batsman, and a walk. Kolten Wong would cash in with a 2-run double, and the game was essentially over.

Leaving in Lyles to face the heart of the order was questionable to begin with, but once Jose Martinez singled it was almost certainly time to go get him. Once he plunked Dejong it was definitely time to go get him. Once he walked Jedd Gyorko alarm bells should have been going off in the Brewer dugout.

I’ve had several discussions about win probability in this game, with several people citing the fact that the Brewers were likely to lose the game anyway in defense of the idea that a good pitcher should not be wasted. I find this idea preposterous for a few reasons. First of all, if a club can get to the top of the 9th inning down by a run, they have roughly a 15 percent chance (about ⅙) to come back and tie the game, and about an 11 percent chance of winning outright. That’s a longshot, but it’s hardly hopeless, and teams routinely rally from one run deficits. Bud Norris is hardly a “lights out” closer. If you give your opponent a 3-run lead your odds plummet to between 2 percent and 3 percent, or 1/50. Wong is a left-handed hitter with substantial platoon splits, and retiring him without allowing a run would have boosted the team’s odds from hopeless to pretty good. Outcomes with a 10 percent to 15 percent chance of occurring happen all the time. But even if you didn’t want to use Hader, surely Dan Jennings, a lefty who hadn’t pitched since August 15th,  would have been a better option than Lyles who, for his career, allows an .822 OPS to lefties.

Punting on a game that the Brewers will win 1/9 of the time is inexcusable at this point in the season, and doubly so when you consider that a win by the Cardinals draws them a game closer to the wild card spot. The Brewers didn’t just flit away an 11 percent chance at a win, they also flitted away an 11 percent chance at causing the Cardinals to suffer a loss. And what did they gain by having one of their worst relievers pitch an extra inning?

Not much. Jeremy Jeffress, who is perfectly capable of pitching on back to back days, hasn’t pitched since the 15th. He joins Dan Jennings, who can seemingly pitch every day if you want him to. Hader hasn’t pitched in a week, last facing the Braves for two innings and 29 pitches on August 11th. Oh, and Corbin Burnes also hasn’t pitched since the 15th. If you are so very concerned about the game on August 18th, even if the team used Hader on the 17th, they would still have at least three quality relievers on at least three days rest. If you can’t manage a close game with such a well-rested bullpen, you frankly don’t deserve to be a manager.

Given the stakes, given the fact that everything was doubled by virtue of the opponent, and given the fact that no good relief pitchers had pitched in forever, there was no reason to let Wong put the Brewers yesterday. The race is close and if Counsell was managing reliever useage for the stretch run, it would be nice if someone would alert him that we have arrived at the stretch run. Hader and Jeffress are on pace to pitch 76 and 73 innings respectively. This is not an onerous amount, and given that much of Hader’s work actually took place in April, it’s more likely that he pitches under 70 innings for the year than over 80. By restricting him to games with leads, they’ve cost themselves wins while saving him for games that never occur. It’s likely at this point in the season, that those will cost them a playoff spot. 

Much of that chatter, at least on the national level, will likely focus on Milwaukee’s apparent lack of elite starting pitching. That’s the sticking point about this team, the brightly-colored flag that gives armchair analysts and casual fans something to grab ahold of and wave around. The fact remains that, yes, the Brewers could use a Justin Verlander. So could every other non-Astros team in the league, or at least the ones that care about winning games. But given the steep acquisition cost and dearth of true aces likely to hit the market, that scenario is unlikely to come to fruition. Rather, the Brewers will probably tinker around the periphery of their roster, subtly reinforcing their depth in a critical area or two (see the recent trades for Erik Kratz and Brad Miller), and continue to place their faith in an average staff, great bullpen, and up-and-down offense that could at any moment find its groove.

And yet, the pitching staff is likely to be the single most important part of the roster as Milwaukee chases its playoff dreams. Any avowed fan has heard the adage: You can never have too much pitching.

Good news on that front. The 2018 Brewers are uniquely positioned to add from within.

Assuming health and no outside additions (both of which, admittedly, are very difficult to count on), the Brewers seem poised to take Chase Anderson, Jhoulys Chacín, Junior Guerra, and Zach Davies into the second half of the season as the four pillars of the starting rotation. Just behind that quartet, rookie Freddy Peralta will jostle with Brent Suter, Wade Miley, and Brandon Woodruff for additional starts, with the losers of that contest pitching in AAA or working as long men out of the bullpen. Jimmy Nelson, for the time being, is out of the picture.

In the ‘pen, Corey Knebel, Josh Hader, and Jeremy Jeffress will be around to record high-leverage outs. Matt Albers will join that trio once he returns from the disabled list. Dan Jennings, Jacob Barnes, and Taylor Williams all figure to see a lot of time, as well, and Adrian Houser, Jorge López, and Woodruff are all pushing for extended looks. Add them all up, and that’s seventeen capable pitchers for twelve or thirteen roster spots.

The Brewers have taken advantage of this surplus all season, weathering injuries with ease and setting up a revolving door at Triple-A Colorado Springs to bring in a fresh arm as often as possible. They’ll continue to do so as the season progresses. But it will really come in handy in September, and particularly if the Brewers are still locked in a tight race for the division crown. Milwaukee starters have had a short leash this season, with Craig Counsell often opting to turn to his bullpen before a member of the starting five has a chance to suffer through a meltdown inning. Come September, that leash could grow shorter still, as multi-inning options like Hader, Jeffress, Suter, Peralta, Houser, López, and Woodruff could all soak up innings as an expanded staff absorbs a heavier load.

That kind of flexibility usually isn’t an option, but Milwaukee benefits from the fact that every single pitcher on their forty-man roster is close enough to the majors to be considered for a September call-up. In fact, the only forty-man pitcher without MLB experience is Marcos Diplan, and he’s pitching in the advanced minors for Double-A Biloxi. Beyond the aforementioned group, the Crew has Alec Asher and Aaron Wilkerson a phone call away. Top prospect Corbin Burnes isn’t on the forty-man roster yet, but he’s recently been pitching out of the bullpen to speed his ascent to the majors.

Counsell and the Brewers have been bold in using their bullpen and moving beyond traditionally-defined pitching roles. They have the pieces to be even more bold in September, when as many as twenty pitchers could make up a super-staff of fresh, well-rested starters who never have to navigate a lineup more than twice and promising multi-inning relievers tasked with getting between four and six outs each.

If anything, the fact that this scenario is even possible for the Brewers reveals the absurdity inherent to September roster expansion. But a rule is a rule, and the Brewers are in prime position to take advantage. September baseball in Milwaukee might not look much like the baseball we all grew up with. But it could be that very distinction that carries the Brewers back to the playoffs.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USA Today Sports Images

Last night in Pittsburgh, Jeffress worked four outs. During the outing, the righty allowed one of two inherited runners to score, and also allowed one run of his own to cross the plate. Otherwise, he also struck out three batters, and thanks to a Brewers offense that scored some runs, Jeffress easily worked within his margin of error to help convert his twelfth lead of the season into a win (Jeffress has three saves and nine holds; last night was his ninth hold). But it is worth emphasizing that for any perception that Jeffress is in the midst of a rough stretch (five of six inherited runners scored in June), the righty is still maintaining the strengths of his profile. For example, Jeffress has allowed three groundballs for every two flyballs, while also striking out 35 percent of batters faced; it’s no wonder that the relief ace has allowed only one run of his own over this stretch.

All of this is a brief analysis of appreciation for one of the very best relievers in baseball, the member of yet another iconic Brewers bullpen duo (the previous being with southpaw Will Smith). Jeffress’s recent stretch demonstrates that even though one could perceive that the strong bullpen is “regressing,” by point of fact the underlying performance remains strong and the bullpen, if anything, has faltered from “phenomenal” to “merely great.”

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports Images

Since it was so much fun last year, the Daily Pythagorean feature remains a constant on BPMilwaukee Twitter. However, this year the results generate much less excitement, simply because I think this year’s Brewers fans have much higher expectations for the club.

Even after a major correction game (!!!), the #Brewers (33-20) still over play their run differential by three wins (30-23). Milwaukee is on pace for approximately 90 wins (-15 RS / +107 RA).

— BP Milwaukee (@BPMilwaukee) May 27, 2018

Last year, it was genuinely exciting to see the surprise rag-tag chumps challenge the National League, and it was joyful to see that the club was pretty much on target for a true 84-85 win pace throughout the season (which they eventually cashed in, and more). This year, there might be a bit more dread in the Daily Pythagorean: an elite pitching staff indeed leads the club, but a month of brutally cold bats (like, truly worst in the league offensive style), coupled with a team that must win every close game in order to succeed (often due to razor’s edge RS / RA margins) means that this team has much worse average performances than the 2017 Brewers.

Basically, the purpose of constructing a Daily Pythagorean W-L model is to analyze variance across the course of 162 game seasons. While analysts frequently use run differentials to present a general status update of ballclubs, upgrading that analysis to a daily metric allows one to average club’s run differential across the course of 162 games. The benefit of this model is that one can also construct an internal Standard Deviation, which is one potential metric for capturing internal variance of a ballclub. By constructing Daily Pythagorean assessments of multiple teams, one can come to understand how variance occurs across different baseball teams (I did this with an assessment of Playoff teams and contenders in the expanded Wild Card era). Thus one can indeed compare point-in-time RS / RA and W-L and use run differential expectations to gauge a team’s “true potential” at a glance, but by averaging results over the course of an entire season, one can also come to understand the general trends of a ballclub. This involves actual W-L, actual RS / RA record, average W-L, and average RS / RA record, as well as the standard deviation for any metric that reflects an average measurement.

Fully one third of the way through 2018, this Brewers team is completely different than last year’s club despite many surface similarities:

• First and foremost, the 2018 Brewers are thoroughly out playing their underlying run differential, while the 2017 Brewers under performed throughout the vast majority of the season. In 2017, the Brewers under played their run differential for 91 games, and matched it for seven games; by contrast, the 2018 Brewers have over played their run differential throughout the entire season thus far. In fact, the 2018 Brewers have not once matched their Pythagorean W-L (thus far).

• Through 53 games, the 2017 Brewers actually produced a better than average offense, with a typical +11 RS mark for the first 53 games; by contrast, the pitching was average through the first third (+1 RA). However, those marks completely changed by the end of the season, as the bats fell to -17 RS while the pitching surged to become one of the best staffs in the NL. These year-end figures are following suit in 2018 thus far, with the club averaging -11 RS and +13 RA through 53 games. Thus, it is worth looking at the run differential switch that occurred in 2017 (fully materializing around Game 114) and questioning the overall path of the 2018 bats and arms.

• Perhaps most importantly, the 2017 Brewers exhibited astonishingly low variance. In fact, their run differential Standard Deviation was lower than every 2017 playoff contender except for the Cubs. The 2017 Brewers were exactly who they were: With a window of 80-to-90 wins averaged throughout the season, there was a very clear idea of where the 2017 Brewers would land. This is decidedly not the case in 2018, where the Brewers are averaging an 80 win run differential with a huge standard deviation (12 wins). This is a large standard deviation even for early season analysis (for example, only the 2017 Dodgers and 2017 Twins exhibited higher early season variance). Basically, the Brewers could be a 68-win club, or they could be a 92-win club, given their average underlying elements.

Let’s look at this in detail, for I gather that many fans will not be happy thinking about a 68-win 2018 Brewers club at this point. But, it fits the balance of the club’s characteristics: Milwaukee is using an elite bullpen to dominate close games, but it’s not difficult to imagine a very good bullpen losing a few more close games after a struggling offense fails to pick up a blown lead. This scenario does not even require the Brewers relievers to be bad; it just requires the distribution of outcomes to spin in a different direction than those witnessed thus far (which is an exceptional 14-5 record in one-run games). The club could simply face close-game fatigue, as they are currently on pace to play 57 one-run games. Should that success switch around, and the Brewers bats go quiet for another month, and the pitching staff is unable to continually walk the line of exceptional run prevention, it’s quite easy to see an extended cold stretch emerging (recall that this is the offense that was Twenty Three runs below average after their first 37 games; so, these last 17 games have been cathartic if uncharacteristic, and those underlying traits remain). Yet even a 24-30 record in one-run games would be rather mundane, if potentially devastating to playoff odds.

At the same time, a 92-win 2018 Brewers team seems downright reasonable given that the Milwaukee Nine are systematically yielding ground balls into an excellent defense, and now the bats are coming around to boot. In fact, this was one particular scenario I outlined while discussing Runs Prevented rankings approximately 10 days ago. In fact, a 92-win season would be close to the club’s Pythagorean pace entering Sunday, and that pace following Sunday’s win. The club features a legitimately exceptional bullpen even after one accounts for potential regression from some of the top percentile performances. What is difficult to discern is that the elements are the same as the 68-win Brewers, it’s simply that their distribution is different. So, as expected in many cases, the 2018 Brewers will continue to be a team that lives and dies by the margins of the roster; this is a team without aces, and arguably even a team without a club-defining offensive superstar, but one that succeeds because the depth of those characteristics exhibit quality across each and every roster spot (which has included 19 position players and 22 pitchers already, among the highest totals in the NL).

Unlike last year, the Daily Pythagorean exercise offers significantly more doubt for the potential futures of the Brewers. Last year, the Brewers were about as “true” as one could like a team to be, and they steadily played out their course. This year, the Brewers are rocketing to a thrilling start, albeit one with substantially more variance underlying their course. The players are familiar, the roles are set, but the outcome hangs in the balance: the next question remains whether Milwaukee can simply continue to out play their run differential and render this whole debate moot, and the last question is whether GM David Stearns will make midseason acquisitions that strengthen the club.

#Brewers pic.twitter.com/OuDHl9DHBv

— Mike Bischoff (@mpbMKE) April 14, 2018

GM David Stearns acquired Oliver Drake without fanfare on April 14, 2017, in a cash transaction with the Baltimore Orioles. The deal essentially completed the Damien Magnifico designation for assignment, as Magnifico was traded to the Orioles for future considerations on April 13, 2017. Drake served as a reverse-Left Handed specialist for the Milwaukee bullpen, as the righty’s splitter-oriented approach allowed him to neutralize lefty bats in the middle of the game. The righty was essentially average in terms of runs prevented for the Brewers, and his 4.64 DRA and 98.8 DRA- both support that fact. One of the benefits of having an average reliever in this role is that Drake is cost-controlled and under club reserve until 2022; despite having worked in the MLB since 2015, Drake’s MLB roster time has been minimal enough to delay arbitration until the 2020 season (according to Cot’s Contracts).

Of course, after Stearns’s acquisition of Junior Guerra, or his waiver wire flirtation with Blake Parker and Steve Geltz, Brewers fans should suspect that Oliver Drake is viewed as more than an “average middle reliever” for the Milwaukee bullpen. In this aspect, Drake is a classic “Stearns” pitcher in multiple ways: he crosses the “Junior Guerra” requirement with a solid split finger fastballs, and he crosses the “Chase Anderson” requirement with a funky, big over-the-top delivery (in fact, Drake’s delivery is so Stearnsian that in future years, analysts will be comparing other Stearns acquisitions to Drake). Finally, Drake also serves a huge function for what is emerging as a great bullpen (through 2017 and now 2018, as well): he’s a quiet break-out candidate that has the luxury of working in the middle innings where no one will notice. In a bullpen full of closers, he’s a potential situational ace-in-waiting, if just a few more things go right.

On Monday night, the problem with Drake against the Reds was that the splitter simply was not working. Reds batters did not miss the pitch, instead slamming a single and two doubles off of what should be Drake’s retirement pitch. But, entering Monday, witness the arsenal shift for Drake. According to Brooks Baseball, here’s Drake in 2017:

Not only has the righty swapped his slider for a slower curveball, but he also has decreased the usage of his splitter:

It’s too early to tell with any certainty, but Drake has also changed his fastball, arguably spinning the pitch to work more as a true hard-rising pitch in 2018 than the offering with slightly more arm-side run in 2017. This shift is arguably very similar to Jacob Barnes’s fastball, which makes one wonder what type of alchemy the Brewers front office, Derek Johnson, and the bullpen crew have going on with their pitch selection work.

While Drake’s pitching line exhibited strike zone command issues (in terms of walks allowed), the righty’s new pitch mix was a wonder for yielding whiffs and groundballs entering Monday. Here’s how Drake worked in 2017:

Now, his new arrangement of pitches produces the following results:

Perhaps the new spinning fastball explains Drake’s command issues somewhat, and it will be worth watching what the righty does with the pitch from here out. But the curve and split are combining to produce more groundballs than his old slider-splitter arsenal, and the splitter is also yielding more whiffs under this current workload. Thus, the walks need to improve for Drake, but on the periphery, the righty reliever is suddenly working more groundballs and strike outs out of his approach.

There are many reasons to cheer for Oliver Drake. At best, fans ought not to treat him with scorn, as his roster spot is certainly deserved based on his 2017 performance, as well as for speculative reasons based on his arsenal adjustment and pitching profile for 2018. Drake is a David Stearns arm, and his pitching profile almost perfectly exemplifies what the Brewers are trying to do with their “pitching system.” In a league where teams are lauded by fans for acquiring low-risk, low-cost pitchers and transforming their roles within a specific analytic system, Oliver Drake should become a Brewers fan favorite: this is what a systemic arm looks like for the new, pitching-focused Brewers.

Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale, USA Today Sports Images

Related:
Tyler Webb’s Quiet Upside

Twenty-seven-year-old Tyler Webb is trying to get that eighth and final bullpen spot.

Webb was the trade return from the New York Yankees in the Garrett Cooper deal last July 13th. In 33  Class-AAA innings prior to the trade, Webb had the best stretch of his young career. Over that stretch, he struck out 12.7 batters per nine innings while walking just three batters total. His groundball rate also crept above 50 percent for the first time in his minor league career. His opponents’ BABIP (.366) was his only real blemish.

Webb’s fortunes changed upon arrival in Colorado Springs. The lefty’s strikeouts per nine dipped below ten (9.2) and his walks per nine shot up to 3.8. Batters continued to hit for a high BABIP (.362). After his success in the Yankees system during the first half, he second half of 2017 ended up being the worst stretch of his minor league career. Webb posted a 6.06 FIP along with a 6.48 ERA.

Last season’s debut stretch with the Brewers will hold Webb back, but it should be noted he was pitching his home games in Colorado Springs, which is notoriously one of the most hitter-friendly parks in professional baseball. Additionally, it’s only 16.7 innings of bad pitching being considered here.

Webb isn’t coming out of nowhere, either. From 2014 to 2016, he posted a FIP at or below 3.74 for the Yankees Class-AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He posted a K/9 above 9.7 in each season while never walking more than 3.1 per nine innings. There’s evidence that shows Webb’s troubling second half of 2017 was a blip on an otherwise stellar track record.

A lack of velocity on his fastball makes scouts wary about his future prospects. In 2017, Webb’s average fastball velocity was under 92 MPH, which is down from the 93 MPH+ fastball he flashed in 2015. Webb’s two other pitches, his slider, and changeup hover around 80 MPH. It’s hard for scouts and analysts to be convinced of a pitcher with Webb’s velocity in 2018. At the same time, his strikeout rate shows he can still dominate without the velocity.

Webb would provide another southpaw arm out of a bullpen that will employ just two left-handers, Hader and Logan. Hader won’t be employed in matchup situations, he’s going to the Brewers’ long-man. Logan, although a successful lefty specialist throughout his career, pitched in just 21 innings last season. There will come a point this bullpen will need another lefty to face the Anthony Rizzo’s and Joey Votto’s of the National League Central.

With all the hoopla surrounding the Brewers outfield and the confusion about how the rotation and second base will shake out, the bullpen is being overlooked. Webb is one of many interesting arms getting a look this Spring Training. If he pitches anything like he did prior to July of last season, his name should be penciled into a roster spot later this month.

Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez, USAToday Sports Images