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A Bullpen for 2017

One of the best parts about spring training is that many ballparks have PITCHf/x technology, which means that Brooks Baseball begins updating some player cards with data. This is a great chance to get an actual idea about what depth prospects throw, even taking the data with gigantic grains of salt (for example, there are relatively few pitches tracked during spring, which leaves open several debates about calibration and significance). Nevertheless, this is a tasty dish even with that giant grain of salt, so let’s take a chance to see what members of the Brewers bullpen camp are throwing.

Many of these arms are featured in previous BPMilwaukee spring stories, which only goes to show that we love our prospects here and hope they grab that big league cash. Among the most interesting minor leaguers are the aforementioned Kohlscheen and Espino, along with newly converted southpaw Nick Ramirez, and some surprises like Preston Gainey. Unfortunately, no 2017 data are yet available for Jon Olczak, Aaron Wilkerson, or even Tim Dillard.

The Brewers signed many minor league contracts during the 2016-2017 offseason, and in the wake of the Junior Guerra success story, it seemed as though GM David Stearns was looking to expand on the age-discrepancy-market. Several “non-prospects” thus joined camp, including Andrew Barbosa. The 6’8″ lefty does not have a fastball to match his size, which leads one to wonder if that 87-88 MPH riding fastball is surprising and deceptive coming from such a large frame. In the Eastern League in 2016, the southpaw struck out 36 of 154 batters faced during seven starts, leading a 3.50 Deserved Runs Average (DRA). Barbosa’s main question mark may be a flyball tendency.

Although it’s easy to focus on the new signings, Milwaukee also has a couple of aging “non-prospects” within their own system that have intriguing statistical performances. Stephen Kohlscheen is entering his second year in the Brewers organization, and will be working a level removed from the MLB during his age-28 season. The 6’6″ righty is currently working a fastball-slider combo of the bread-and-butter variety; the fastball is rising, and the slider’s vertical and horizontal movement is relatively short. Perhaps Kohlscheen will join Jacob Barnes as a true fastball-slider, meat-and-potatoes reliever. The 32.8 percent strike out rate, 3.94 K/BB, 2.26 DRA, and are worth another look.

Nick Ramirez’s story is by now well-known in spring camp, as the stalling first baseman shifted back to the mound to reclaim a previous college pitching role. Ramirez is now the best kind of longshot story as a player who will throw his first professional pitch at age-27. Thus far the PITCHf/x looks nice for the southpaw, who is flashing a lot of break on his fastball while also working on three off-speed offerings. Make no mistake about it, Ramirez has a long way to go to prove that he can retire professional batters, but as a left-handed pitcher he will undoubtedly receive as many chances as he needs to prove his strengths from the mound.

Among the competitors that saw time in the 2016 Brewers bullpen, the spring training stuff already looks like last year’s stuff. This is arguably a good thing, as it means that Jacob Barnes, Jhan Marinez, and Corey Knebel are ready to take the next step to preserve close ballgames in Milwaukee. Barnes has the most fascinating fastball/slider combination, so much so that I’d actually suggest describing his PITCHf/x mix as “cutter-screwball.” Looking at Barnes’s delivery and stuff, there does not appear to be a lot of room for deception, but yet the “fastball” nearly moves glove-side, which is very rare for right-handed pitchers (even rising fastballs usually have armside run). As a result of the unorthodox fastball, Barnes’s slider has more armside break compared to the fastball, which effectively makes it a screwball in practice. Barnes is so much fun to watch because he’s quite a throwback reliever, so Brewers fans must enjoy this hard, no-nonsense arsenal while it’s still around.

What’s striking about the Marinez, Knebel, and Barnes trio is that each reliever works in a completely different range. Marinez is a true sinker reliever, while Knebel throws a riding-running fastball, and Barnes has his little cutter. Meanwhile, Knebel changes it up with a huge curveball, while Barnes uses a much tighter arsenal in his cutter-screwball approach. Marinez also uses a slider, but his variation is quite different than Barnes’s; Marinez throws a much more traditional slider insofar as the pitch breaks approximately five inches gloveside (i.e., “away” from righty bats) from his fastball.

Finally, it’s interesting to see readings on Josh Hader’s fastball, as well as a much quieter delivery from the southpaw. Certainly, Hader is not rushing up that true-70 southpaw heat that he flashed during a short Arizona Fall League stint in 2015. Yet, if the lefty still works in the mid-90s, but a quieter delivery allows him to regain command and repeat his change up, that’s quiet a strong delivery if it allows Hader to stick as a starter. Less “exciting” and more “repetition” with a broader arsenal for Hader should be music to Brewers fans’ ears.

There’s a lot to watch in spring training, including PITCHf/x statistics, so enjoy March while you can: this is a great chance to get a look at depth prospects, and also associate some “stuff” measurements with minor league statistics later in the season.

Now that the games are starting, we can say that Spring Training is really beginning in earnest. Doing drills, throwing bullpens, and taking live batting practice is one thing, but performances in Cactus League games will go a long way into determining who will make the roster and who will begin the season in the minor leagues. For the Brewers, pretty much every spot in the starting lineup is already spoken for besides catcher, and there are seven major league veterans competing for the starting rotation. There will be some competition, however, for the final couple of spots on the bench and in the bullpen.

Each season, there are a few surprise players who make enough of a case to begin the year in The Show. Last year, Chris Capuano and Blaine Boyer broke camp with Milwaukee after signing minor league deals the previous winter. In 2015, Michael Blazek was the unheralded prospect who showed enough to get the call to the big leagues. In 2014, non-roster veterans Mark Reynolds, Lyle Overbay, and Zack Duke all earned Opening Day nods. So which players could catch us off-guard with a strong spring this year and earn a ticket to Milwaukee come April? Here are some players I’ll be watching this spring:

RHP Ryan Webb
A veteran of parts of eight major league seasons, the Brewers signed the 31 year old Webb to a minor league deal back in December. His velocity was down a bit in 2016 during a small, 17.3 inning sample with the Rays, and he managed only a 5.19 ERA and 5.05 DRA before getting cut. He did display above-average command last year (0.10 percent CSAA), and prior to 2016 he had posted league-average or better ERA’s and DRA’s every year dating back to 2010. The ground-ball specialist (58 percent GB rate for his career) could serve in that sort of Blaine Boyer-type role in the front of the bullpen, providing a steady veteran presence to help along the younger arms while also eating up innings.

LHP Andrew Barbosa
As recently as 2015, Andrew Barbosa was out of MLB-affiliated ball and pitching for the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. The former 36th round pick (2012, Diamondbacks) parlayed that successful showing into a minor league deal with the Mets last year, and he responded by posting a 1.51 ERA and 71:19 K/BB ratio in 71.1 innings across four levels, including reaching the AAA level for the first time in his career. Barbosa towers over hitters standing at 6’8″, and his over-the-top delivery creates a significant downward angle that makes his 90ish MPH fastball quite a bit more intimidating for hitters. He’s coming off a highly successful showing with Mayaguez in the Puerto Rican winter league, and with only Brent Suter and Tommy Milone realistically competing for left-handed spots on the roster (it’s highly unlikely the club will ignore service time implications for Josh Hader), the 29 year old Barbosa may be looking at the best opportunity of his career to make it to the big leagues.

RHP Jorge Lopez
It wasn’t too long ago that Lopez was considered the organization’s top pitching prospect, but a brutal 2016 season has dulled most of the outside excitement around the 24 year old. After working on some mechanical adjustments during Fall Instructs, Lopez dominated the Puerto Rican winter league circuit, posting a 1.56 ERA across 34.7 innings with 32 strikeouts, 13 walks, just 17 hits allowed, and a league-leading 0.87 WHIP. A return trip to Colorado Springs for the young righty would not be advisable, in my opinion, and Lopez has nothing left to prove by pitching a third season in AA. BPMilwaukee editor-in-chief Nicholas Zettel made the case for Lopez to begin the year in the big league starting rotation earlier this month, however a role as a swingman in the bullpen may be more realistic. Pitching in such a capacity would allow Lopez to prove he can get major league hitters out in lower-leverage situations and he could work his way into a more prominent position should he find success; when the club inevitably needs a spot starter or someone to move into the starting rotation, Lopez could make that transition. This is similar to how the Orioles deployed Dylan Bundy last season.

1B Jesus Aguilar
Jesus Aguilar is no longer considered a rookie and is currently on the 40 man roster, but his situation is a bit tenuous as an out-of-options player. The Brewers claimed him off waivers from the Indians a few weeks ago and unless he can win a bench spot in camp, he would need to be exposed to waivers once again in order to be sent to the minor leagues. The 27 year old has shown plus power in the minor leagues, clubbing 68 home runs in 386 games at AAA, including an International League-leading 30 round-trippers last year. He’s posted palatable strikeout (19.5 percent) and walk (10 percent) rates at the highest level of the minors along with an .818 OPS. Aguilar just hasn’t been able to carry that production over to the big leagues yet, where pitchers have exploited him to the tune of 21 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances while he’s hit .172/.234/.190. That’s hardly enough of a sample to accurate conclusions from, of course, and Aguilar should get a decent shot this year to prove he can be more than a quad-A first baseman. He could serve as a right-handed compliment to Eric Thames at first base and provide some insurance there if Thames cannot translate his KBO production back to the MLB. Aguilar has also played a little bit of third base and left field during his minor league career, and if he can show Craig Counsell the ability to be passable at multiple positions it would greatly improve his chances of making the roster.