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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Brewers history</title>
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		<title>Chasing 1988</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/30/chasing-1988/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/30/chasing-1988/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jul 2018 11:00:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nicholas Zettel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[1988 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[1992 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2008 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Sheets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Wegman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers pitching analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cal Eldred]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Villanueva]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CC Sabathia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chase Anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Bosio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chuck Crim]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Knebel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darren Holmes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Bush]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Don August]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob Barnes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jamie Navarro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Orosco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Nelson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Hader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Nieves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manny Parra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Birkbeck]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Fetters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milwaukee Brewers history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teddy Higuera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tom Filer]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12185</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve dreaded writing this post for some time, the ultimate jinx post for the phenomenal 2018 Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff. In fact, they surrendered eight runs today while I researched this feature. Yet, as the games played total strolls over 100, it is worth broaching the topic of the place of the 2018 Brewers pitching [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve dreaded writing this post for some time, the ultimate jinx post for the phenomenal 2018 Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff. In fact, they surrendered eight runs today while I researched this feature. Yet, as the games played total strolls over 100, it is worth broaching the topic of the place of the 2018 Brewers pitching staff within the context of franchise history. It is an understatement to note that Milwaukee&#8217;s franchise is hardly known for pitching; in fact, averaging Baseball Prospectus Pitcher Park Factors and Baseball Reference park factors, the Brewers have managed only 17 average or better pitching staffs in the course of 50 active seasons (including their year as the Seattle Pilots). The Brewers have been a bad pitching franchise, but that changed somewhat in 2017, when GM David Stearns demonstrated his acumen to assemble a strong Runs Prevention unit, foreshadowing 2018.</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Best Brewers Pitching</th>
<th align="center">Avg. Runs Prevented</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1988</td>
<td align="center">89.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1992</td>
<td align="center">68.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2018</td>
<td align="center">53.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2008</td>
<td align="center">52.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2017</td>
<td align="center">47.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2011</td>
<td align="center">47.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1997</td>
<td align="center">41.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1994</td>
<td align="center">29.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1978</td>
<td align="center">26.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2005</td>
<td align="center">26.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1979</td>
<td align="center">19.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1980</td>
<td align="center">18.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1986</td>
<td align="center">11.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1974</td>
<td align="center">3.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1995</td>
<td align="center">3.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2007</td>
<td align="center">3.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1971</td>
<td align="center">0.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Now the 2018 Brewers are on pace to challenge the 1988 Brewers for the best pitching staff in franchise history. As it stands, the Brewers could basically pitch average baseball for the remainder of the season and finish with the third best staff in franchise history; as the table above shows, Milwaukee has already surpassed their 2017 Runs Prevented total this season.</p>
<p>The purpose of this post is not to present a normative argument about whether or not the Brewers should be expected to produce the best pitching season in franchise history. Evidence abounds in all directions. First and foremost, at the time of this writing, the trade deadline has yet to pass, which means that the Brewers could further improve their pitching; second, <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/24/runs-prevented-guerra-vs-hellickson/">the latest average Runs Prevented table</a> demonstrates that the Milwaukee hurlers are already approximately 12 runs from their May 31 pace, meaning that the club has slowed slightly in their elite Runs Prevention; additionally, key injuries and subsequent ineffectiveness (ranging from Brent Suter and Zach Davies to Matt Albers and, of course, Jimmy Nelson) also impact projections of runs prevention. Alternately, Chase Anderson has prevented approximately seven runs since the beginning of June, and is beginning to look like a rotation leader at the same time the club traded for Joakim Soria and recalled Corbin Burnes to bolster the bullpen. If anything, this swirling set of evidence might allow one to believe that the pitching staff will at least remain steady.</p>
<p>Rather, I am going to investigate the pitching staff structure for a few of the best franchise pitching staffs listed in the table above. The purpose here will be fun, first and foremost, as almost everyone can name the key Brewers batters and supporting casts of the club&#8217;s great offensive performances (ten of the top 13 runs production seasons come from the 1978-1983 and 2009-2012 roster cores), but the great pitching staffs beyond Teddy Higuera, Ben Sheets, and CC Sabathia remain underappreciated or perhaps even unknown. Furthermore, by comparing the structures of these great staffs, one can get an idea of how pitching roster construction has evolved over time. For example, the 2018 Brewers may very well end up producing the greatest bullpen in franchise history, but how does their rotation compare? On the other hand, one might expect the classic 1980s clubs to be rotation-first, in terms of value.</p>
<p><strong>Defensive Efficiency</strong><br />
Prior to investigating Baseball Prospectus pitching profiles of these classic Brewers pitching clubs, it is worth emphasizing that most of the top Brewers pitching teams were also typically very good fielding teams relative to their respective leagues.</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Defensive Efficiency</th>
<th align="center">Efficiency</th>
<th align="center">Rank (League)</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1992 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.738</td>
<td align="center">1st of 14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2018 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.724</td>
<td align="center">1st of 15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2008 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.715</td>
<td align="center">2nd of 16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1988 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.733</td>
<td align="center">2nd of 14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1997 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.713</td>
<td align="center">2nd of 14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1994 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.717</td>
<td align="center">3rd of 14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1978 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.730</td>
<td align="center">4th of 14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2005 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.715</td>
<td align="center">7th of 16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2017 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.702</td>
<td align="center">7th of 15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2011 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">.712</td>
<td align="center">8th of 16</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Indeed, the table above demonstrates that the 2018 Brewers shares the top of these fielding profiles with the 1992 club, which were the most efficient fielding unit on the Junior Circuit. Here, I am using defensive efficiency to assess fielding because it is a basic number that calculates the extent to which a fielding unit converts outs. The outliers here are the 2005, 2011, and 2017 Brewers clubs, which prevented runs despite mediocre fielding performances (they prevented approximately 26, 47, and 47 runs, respectively, despite their middle of the road fielding).</p>
<p><strong>Roster Construction</strong><br />
Teddy Higuera had quite a career for the Milwaukee Brewers, posting single season WARP totals above 4.0 in three of nine seasons. Higuera&#8217;s best year in Milwaukee occurred during the 1988 season, in which the southpaw worked nearly 230 innings while striking out 192 batters to only 59 walks. Using Deserved Run Average (DRA), a statistic that scales pitching performance to numerous contextual components, Higuera was better in 1988 than in any other season in Milwaukee, and those results total nearly 7.0 WARP.</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">1988 Brewers Leaders</th>
<th align="center">WARP</th>
<th align="center">G (GS)</th>
<th align="center">Age</th>
<th align="center">DRA</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Teddy Higuera</td>
<td align="center">6.9</td>
<td align="center">31 (31)</td>
<td align="center">30</td>
<td align="center">2.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Chris Bosio</td>
<td align="center">2.7</td>
<td align="center">38 (22)</td>
<td align="center">25</td>
<td align="center">3.71</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Chuck Crim (!!!)</td>
<td align="center">1.9</td>
<td align="center">70 (0)</td>
<td align="center">26</td>
<td align="center">3.30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Mike Birkbeck</td>
<td align="center">1.3</td>
<td align="center">23 (23)</td>
<td align="center">27</td>
<td align="center">4.10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Tom Filer</td>
<td align="center">1.2</td>
<td align="center">19 (16)</td>
<td align="center">31</td>
<td align="center">4.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Don August</td>
<td align="center">1.15</td>
<td align="center">24 (22)</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">4.33</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Yet the 1988 club was also a crossing of two eras in Milwaukee, where the fading glory of Harvey&#8217;s Wallbangers (who never got the consistent ace they deserved in Higuera) would congeal into a roster core that could never quite get Robin Yount and Paul Molitor into the playoffs with a second generation of talent. Behind Higuera, the 1988 squad featured four prominent contributors age-25 or younger in Juan Nieves (23), Don August (24), Chris Bosio (25), and Bill Wegman (25), ostensibly giving the Brewers a stable pitching rotation around which their next contending seasons could follow. Yet injuries, ineffectiveness, and inconsistencies derailed this group, leaving 1988 their best performance. Of these youngsters, Bosio was en route to beginning a stretch of several quality pitching seasons, and in fact the righty was more valuable each of 1989, 1991, and 1992 (compared to 1988).</p>
<p>Chuck Crim deserves mention, of course, because the 26-year old rubber arm worked more than 100 innings over 70 appearances. Not only did the righty work 42 multiple inning appearances according to Baseball Reference, but he also inherited 68 runners. In terms of percentage points, Crim&#8217;s strand rate was eight points better than the league average, meaning that aside from his own exceptional runs allowed total, Crim added several Runs Prevented simply by stranding runners that occupied bases when he entered ballgames; this performance foreshadowed Brian Shouse&#8217;s efforts for the excellent 2008 pitching staff (60 IR / 20 scored), as well as Jeremy Jeffress and Dan Jennings (62 IR / 14 scored (!!!) entering Sunday) in 2018. This excellent performance is reflected in Crim&#8217;s leads converted statistics, as the righty successfully produced nine saves and 13 holds, against only two blown save or hold opportunities.</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">2017 Brewers Leaders</th>
<th align="center">WARP</th>
<th align="center">G (GS)</th>
<th align="center">Age</th>
<th align="center">DRA</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Jimmy Nelson</td>
<td align="center">4.7</td>
<td align="center">29 (29)</td>
<td align="center">28</td>
<td align="center">3.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Chase Anderson</td>
<td align="center">2.7</td>
<td align="center">25 (25)</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
<td align="center">3.85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Corey Knebel</td>
<td align="center">1.9</td>
<td align="center">76 (0)</td>
<td align="center">25</td>
<td align="center">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Josh Hader</td>
<td align="center">1.2</td>
<td align="center">35 (0)</td>
<td align="center">23</td>
<td align="center">3.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Jacob Barnes</td>
<td align="center">1.0</td>
<td align="center">73 (0)</td>
<td align="center">27</td>
<td align="center">3.92</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The Crim mention is a perfect transition to the 2017 pitching staff, which featured a few excellent starting pitching performances boosted by an even better bullpen. Thus appears Jacob Barnes in the club&#8217;s top performers for 2017, as the hard near-cutter / slider reliever is not only a throwback to the bread-and-butter 1980s reliever (enter Crim, a favorite media comp for Barnes, too), but also one of the only 2017 Brewers pitchers to accumulate more than 1.0 WARP. What is interesting about the 2017 pitching staff also foreshadowing the strengths of the 2018 staff, and that is the sheer depth of the pitching operations. Eventually, the pitching-by-depth gamble unraveled as the club faced injuries and a rotating cast of fifth starter ineffectiveness down the stretch. But along with the more popular impact relievers of Corey Knebel and Josh Hader, Barnes was one of the key reasons for the club&#8217;s success in 2017 and, like Crim and Hader, another deep round MLB draft success story.</p>
<p>By the way, let it be said that for any other critiques of the Brewers current GM, David Stearns sure can build a runs prevention unit. Despite being in his third season as GM, and ostensibly leading the club through a rebuilding phase, Stearns already boasts two of the 17 average or better pitching staffs in franchise history. Interestingly enough, for all the grief President Doug Melvin gets about his apparent inability to assemble a pitching staff, the highly regarded Harry Dalton also had the same issue. While Sal Bando is not highly regarded by most Brewers fans, the GM sure could build a pitching staff, and Bando (more than Melvin or Dalton) is Stearns&#8217;s target for building quality pitching; Dalton and Melvin are obviously the targets for beating postseason appearances.</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Brewers GM</th>
<th align="center">Average (or Better) Pitching Years</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Dalton</td>
<td align="center">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Bando</td>
<td align="center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Stearns</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Melvin</td>
<td align="center">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Baumer</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Lane</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Comparing Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson, and Zach Davies, who was an excellent Runs Prevented starter in 2017 even if his WARP did not look great, to the 1988 squad should underscore the difficulty of building a consistent rotation. Producing a great starting rotation certainly does not come close to guaranteeing pitching success in the following season, when injuries, mechanical adjustments, and inconsistencies that were absent in the &#8220;great year&#8221; can creep up in the following campaign. Once again, though, the Brewers have a group of truly controllable, quality starting pitching arms (as they did in the late-1980s), but it is worth raising questions about the scouting profiles and future prospects of these arms following the mechanical adjustments and injuries that have plagued 2018. The book is not closed, however, as Chase Anderson has shown over his last ten starts (59.7 IP, 3.02 ERA, four quality starts); if all goes well, Anderson&#8217;s contract extension would be well-justified if he comes anywhere near Chris Bosio&#8217;s best four years in Milwaukee.</p>
<p>2008 needs no introduction, as the Brewers media and Twitter recently celebrated the tenth anniversary of the CC Sabathia trade. Of course, as Sabathia rightfully carries the reputation as the arm that saved that season, it is always worth emphasizing that Ben Sheets was phenomenal in 2008 as well. Sheets managed a 3.13 DRA and 5.3 WARP across 31 starts, including an electrifying 1-0 complete game effort over the Padres while pitching through a torn elbow ligament. In terms of pitchers putting their careers on the line for Milwaukee, it&#8217;s tough to top Sabathia and Sheets, as both pitchers risked millions of dollars on the 2008-2009 free agency market to will the Brewers to their first playoff appearance in a generation; Sheets lost the bet for future millions, while Sabathia cashed on an uncanny performance.</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">2008 Brewers Leaders</th>
<th align="center">WARP</th>
<th align="center">G (GS)</th>
<th align="center">Age</th>
<th align="center">DRA</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Ben Sheets</td>
<td align="center">5.3</td>
<td align="center">31 (31)</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
<td align="center">3.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">CC Sabathia</td>
<td align="center">4.7</td>
<td align="center">17 (17)</td>
<td align="center">27</td>
<td align="center">2.34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Dave Bush</td>
<td align="center">2.7</td>
<td align="center">31 (29)</td>
<td align="center">28</td>
<td align="center">4.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Carlos Villanueva</td>
<td align="center">2.7</td>
<td align="center">47 (9)</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">3.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Manny Parra</td>
<td align="center">2.7</td>
<td align="center">32 (29)</td>
<td align="center">25</td>
<td align="center">4.09</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>But oh, ode to Manny Parra, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva, the sometimes frustrating but often dependable low rotation and swingman crew for the mid-00s Milwaukee teams. Bush was worth approximately 10 WARP to the Brewers over his 2006-2008 seasons, with 2006 being the high mark; Villanueva and Parra each had their best Milwaukee years in 2008, which is not a bad thing to occur during a playoff race. This trio of pitchers seems quite comparable to many of the 2018 Brewers group, for this trio either had unassuming stuff, or serious profile questions or command concerns when the stuff was there. While one will be quick to point out that the 2018 Brewers do not (yet) have their Sabathia, nor do they have their Sheets, one can find semblances of the Bush, Parra, and Villanueva trio in profiles such as Junior Guerra, Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Miley, and/or Freddy Peralta. This is not an insult: the 2008 trio have never truly received enough credit for their respective roles in carrying the rotation early in the season, nor for their overall value.</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">1992 Brewers Leaders</th>
<th align="center">WARP</th>
<th align="center">G (GS)</th>
<th align="center">Age</th>
<th align="center">DRA</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Bill Wegman</td>
<td align="center">6.1</td>
<td align="center">35 (35)</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
<td align="center">3.04</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Chris Bosio</td>
<td align="center">3.4</td>
<td align="center">33 (33)</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
<td align="center">3.77</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Jamie Navarro</td>
<td align="center">2.2</td>
<td align="center">34 (34)</td>
<td align="center">25</td>
<td align="center">4.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Cal Eldred</td>
<td align="center">1.7</td>
<td align="center">14 (14)</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">3.58</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Mike Fetters</td>
<td align="center">1.29</td>
<td align="center">50 (0)</td>
<td align="center">27</td>
<td align="center">3.07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Darren Holmes</td>
<td align="center">1.03</td>
<td align="center">41 (0)</td>
<td align="center">26</td>
<td align="center">2.75</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Jesse Orosco</td>
<td align="center">1.01</td>
<td align="center">59 (0)</td>
<td align="center">35</td>
<td align="center">2.62</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Finally, if 1988 was the best franchise pitching season, 1992 exemplified the turn of generations once more, as Jamie Navarro and Cal Eldred were set to join Bosio and Wegman atop the pitching staff. This time, Wegman bested Bosio in terms of value, but both pitchers were quite strong, producing nearly 10 WARP for those 1992 Brewers. Eldred and Navarro also acquitted themselves well, although they would reprise the injuries, inconsistencies, and ineffectiveness that has served as a theme throughout these pitching profiles.</p>
<p>In 1992, one can suddenly see the eras shift, as baseball&#8217;s strategic tides moved toward relief pitching prominence, and these Brewers had a deep and fantastic bullpen. Fetters, Holmes, and Orosco were not even the most prominent relievers on the staff (see Plesac, Dan; Henry, Doug; and Austin, Jim). What is stunning about this group is that despite their excellent and deep composition, the Brewers were near the bottom in the American League in both Saves and Holds, and their relievers mostly faced low leverage innings according to Baseball Reference. In 1992, 42 percent of Brewers relief appearances qualified as low leverage; to get a sense of what that might look like, consider than the 2018 Brewers are nearly the exact opposite, with 36 percent of relief appearances qualified as high leverage. It is interesting to think about this strategic snafu of 1992 during a current season in which managers are reaching for their bullpens early and often in order to gain every advantage possible.</p>
<p>Yet is a bullpen ever a vehicle for anything other than strategic failure? Is there a proper way to manage the pen over an extended period of time? If the 2018 Brewers are going to catch the 1988 squad to produce the best pitching season in franchise history, hopefully manager Craig Counsell effectively dispatches those Runs Prevented in the most strategic manner possible.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Baseball Prospectus. Milwaukee Brewers Individual Statistics by Team [CSV]. Retrieved July 29, 2018.</p>
<p>Baseball Reference. Milwaukee Brewers Franchise [CSV]. Retrieved July 29, 2018.</p>
<p>Baseball Reference. Park Factors and League Encyclopedia [CSV]. Retrieved July 29, 2018.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Runs Prevented were calculated using the average of park factors between Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference sources, with the addition of a basic league environment runs prevented stat as well. Each Brewers team was assessed by average runs prevented and standard deviation.</p>
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		<title>The Agony of a Cup of Coffee</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/27/the-agony-of-a-cup-of-coffee/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/27/the-agony-of-a-cup-of-coffee/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Dec 2017 19:06:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Seth Victor]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor league history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospect history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Olander]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10858</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For so many baseball players growing up, the ultimate goal is the big leagues.  People fall away at each level, as a lack of talent or work ethic forces them off the ladder.  Some people hold on to the dream for longer than others, but everyone who doesn’t make it ultimately gives up.  Those who [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For so many baseball players growing up, the ultimate goal is the big leagues.  People fall away at each level, as a lack of talent or work ethic forces them off the ladder.  Some people hold on to the dream for longer than others, but everyone who doesn’t make it ultimately gives up.  Those who do make it are blessed with incredible talent and even better luck, and Jim Olander fits that category.  He was gifted enough to play in the big leagues, and he deserves all the credit for working hard enough to fulfill his dream.  But despite that cup of coffee, coming away without a single hit must hurt.</p>
<p>In 1981, Olander was drafted as an outfielder in the seventh round by the Philadelphia Phillies.  He was <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=olande001jam">relatively successful</a> in the low minors; as an 18-year-old in the Rookie League, more than two years younger than the league average, the prospect posted an .854 OPS.  The following year, as a 19-year-old in the South Atlantic League, his .875 OPS ranked fifteenth, and only one other 19-year-old was better.  Olander seemed to be off to a good start to his career, and his odds of making the major leagues increased.</p>
<p>The outfielder&#8217;s career stagnated the next two years.  In 1983 and 1984, he struggled to reach the heights of his previous seasons, as his .700 OPS in 1983 and .690 OPS in 1984 did not augur the same kind of success of his first two years.  Nonetheless, he was promoted to Double-A in 1985, and it was at this level that he regained his status as a potential big leaguer.</p>
<p>With Double-A Reading in 1985, Olander posted an .882 OPS; in 1986, his OPS was .862.  He became known for his defensive abilities, but the Phillies’ outfield depth <a href="https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=mgoiAAAAIBAJ&amp;sjid=5KYFAAAAIBAJ&amp;dq=jim-olander&amp;pg=5968%2C2494568">blocked</a> his continued acceleration through the minor league system.  Without a clear path to big league playing time, Olander’s hitting stalled.  In 1987, he was bumped up to Triple-A, but his .699 OPS in 1989 was his high mark over the next three years, and he played only 179 games over that time.</p>
<p>After 1989, Olander became a free agent and signed with Houston, who then traded him to the Brewers.  At this point, at age 27, he regained some of his former talents, posting a .758 OPS in 1990 with Triple-A Denver and an .889 OPS in 1991.  This was enough to catch the eye of the big league club, and the Brewers made him a September call-up in 1991.</p>
<p>At this point, Olander was in his age-28 season, so his dreams of a long and fruitful big league career had likely passed him by.  Given his age and injury history, the idea that he would be a big league regular seemed in the mirror.  Like so many other ballplayers, though, he had kept grinding, and his patience was finally rewarded.  He made his major league debut <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=olandji01&amp;t=b&amp;year=1991">on September 20, 1991</a>, and he pinch-hit in the seventh inning.  He went 0-for-1 with a walk.  The next two nights, he pinch ran and was a defensive replacement.  On September 30, he got a start and went 0-for-4 with a walk.  It was the last time he would get on base in the major leagues.</p>
<p>Over the next two weeks, Olander pinch ran three times, was a defensive replacement four times, and made one start.  He went 0-for-4 and struck out once, but he did not get on base.  His October 5 appearance as a pinch runner and then defensive replacement in center field was his last big league appearance.  He spent the next three years in Triple-A, but <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/2009/07/20/olander-a-major-hit-in-minor-league-era/">a broken leg</a> in 1992 sapped him of his athleticism and cost him a shot at returning to the big leagues.</p>
<p>Every player dreams of making the big leagues, and Olander did that.  On September 20, 1991, he was able to step on a big league field as a big league baseball player, and almost everyone who takes the field does not get to do that.  Olander did something the vast majority of players can only dream of.</p>
<p>But Olander never got a hit in the big leagues.  His mantle does not have a ball that says “first MLB hit,” and he cannot show a highlight clip to his kids or grandkids.  He has the memories, and he probably has a jersey to commemorate his big league career.  But he does not have a commemorative ball.</p>
<p>Jim Olander has gone on to a successful career in baseball; he is now <a href="http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2017/09/03/tigers-scouts-lay-groundwork-prospect-laden-deals/105262010/">a scout</a> with Detroit, and he has been since 2007.  He has contributed to many successful teams in the past decade, including a couple pennant-winning teams for the Tigers.  He must be pleased with his career and all that he has accomplished in the game.  He is, however, the Brewer position player with the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/season_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;sum=1&amp;as=result_batter&amp;offset=0&amp;type=b&amp;min_year_season=1901&amp;max_year_season=2017&amp;min_season=1&amp;max_season=-1&amp;min_age=0&amp;max_age=99&amp;lg_ID=lgAny&amp;lgAL_team=tmAny&amp;lgNL_team=tmMIL&amp;">most career plate appearances</a> who did not record a hit.</p>
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		<title>The Best Brewers</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/27/the-best-brewers/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/27/the-best-brewers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Sep 2017 13:52:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nicholas Zettel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers historical analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chase Anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Knebel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Nelson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zach Davies]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10177</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last night, the improbable 2017 Brewers, these never-building nobodies, continued their hunt for a playoff spot by hanging on to a wild win versus Cincinnati. This victory not only kept Milwaukee alive in the National League Wild Card, where the club trails the final spot Colorado Rockies by 1.5 games, but also alive in the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last night, the improbable 2017 Brewers, these never-building nobodies, continued their hunt for a playoff spot by hanging on to a wild win versus Cincinnati. This victory not only kept Milwaukee alive in the National League Wild Card, where the club trails the final spot Colorado Rockies by 1.5 games, but also alive in the division since the Cubs lost. It is extremely improbable that the Chicago Cubs lose out and the Brewers win out, thereby forcing a final game for the division, but that would be a very &#8220;hey, this is baseball&#8221; thing to happen in the 2017 season. (In fact, according to Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections, season simulation Number 4813 foresaw this exact scenario).</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">PECOTA Simulation 4813</th>
<th align="center">Result</th>
<th align="center">Wins</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Brewers</td>
<td align="center">NL Central Champ</td>
<td align="center">88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Phillies</td>
<td align="center">NL East Champ</td>
<td align="center">93</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Dodgers</td>
<td align="center">NL West Champ</td>
<td align="center">99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Cubs</td>
<td align="center">NL Wild Card 1</td>
<td align="center">88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Giants</td>
<td align="center">NL Wild Card 2</td>
<td align="center">86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Cleveland</td>
<td align="center">AL Central Champ</td>
<td align="center">90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Yankees</td>
<td align="center">AL East Champ</td>
<td align="center">87</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Angels</td>
<td align="center">AL West Champ</td>
<td align="center">84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Rays</td>
<td align="center">AL Wild Card 1</td>
<td align="center">86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Twins</td>
<td align="center">T-AL Wild Card 2</td>
<td align="center">83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Astros</td>
<td align="center">T-AL Wild Card 2</td>
<td align="center">83</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Of course, the Brewers win also brings the club thoroughly into &#8220;winning season territory,&#8221; beyond the mere .500 win total (81) or the &#8220;well, I guess they won one more game than .500&#8243; mark of 82 wins.</p>
<p>Now, with five games remaining in the season, these 2017 Brewers are fighting for their playoffs lives, improbably fighting for a divisional shot, <em>and</em> perhaps most improbably, fighting for a slot among the Best Brewers Teams in Franchise History. Let&#8217;s have a look:</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Best Brewers Teams</th>
<th align="center">Record</th>
<th align="center">Playoffs?</th>
<th align="center">RS / RA Wins</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2011 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">96-66</td>
<td align="center">Lost NLCS</td>
<td align="center">90.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1979 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">95-66</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">89.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1982 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">95-67</td>
<td align="center">Lost World Series</td>
<td align="center">96.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1978 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">93-69</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">96.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1981 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">62-47</td>
<td align="center">Lost LDS</td>
<td align="center">86.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1992 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">92-70</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">95.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1987 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">91-71</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">85.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2008 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">90-72</td>
<td align="center">Lost LDS</td>
<td align="center">87.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1988 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">87-75</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">88.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1983 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">87-75</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">86.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1980 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">86-76</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">93.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center"><strong>2017 Brewers</strong></td>
<td align="center"><strong>83-74</strong></td>
<td align="center"><strong>???</strong></td>
<td align="center"><strong>84.6</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2012 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">83-79</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">85.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2007 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">83-79</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">83.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1991 Brewers</td>
<td align="center">83-79</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
<td align="center">86.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Obviously, the cynical Brewers fans will point out that the fact that <em>this</em> team is one of the best in franchise history reflects the losing nature of the franchise, rather than the strengths of this 2017 club. I think that&#8217;s a cop out, for several reasons; first, this team clearly features some key young- and prime-aged players getting ready for a contending run (hopefully); second, this team clearly features one of the very best pitching staffs in Brewers history, including both the starting rotation and the bullpen. This last fact will be true by runs prevented (even if the team allows 50 runs over the last five games, they will remain a significantly better than average club; they are currently on pace to prevent 60 runs), as well as by WARP.</p>
<p>The historical Baseball Prospectus pitching statistics show that Jimmy Nelson (3.95), Zach Davies (3.57), Corey Knebel (2.22), and Chase Anderson (2.13) each have more than 2.00 pitching Wins Above Replacement (WARP); <em>no other Brewers team has accomplished that, ever!</em> If one is inclined to complain about the offense, and call this team one-dimensional, well, sometimes very good baseball teams are one dimensional, and it just happens that this Brewers club actually is lead by pitching instead of the club reputation for being offense-first (CSV retrieved September 27, 2017).</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Most 2.0 WARP Brewers</th>
<th align="center">Pitcher 1 (DRA)</th>
<th align="center">Pitcher 2 (DRA)</th>
<th align="center">Pitcher 3 (DRA)</th>
<th align="center">Pitcher 4 (DRA)</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2017</td>
<td align="center">Jimmy Nelson (3.56)</td>
<td align="center">Zach Davies (3.87)</td>
<td align="center">Corey Knebel (2.45)</td>
<td align="center">Chase Anderson (4.13)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2007</td>
<td align="center">Ben Sheets (3.93)</td>
<td align="center">Yovani Gallardo (3.77)</td>
<td align="center">Chris Capuano (4.42)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2006</td>
<td align="center">Chris Capuano (3.14)</td>
<td align="center">Dave Bush (3.10)</td>
<td align="center">Ben Sheets (2.54)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2005</td>
<td align="center">Ben Sheets (2.61)</td>
<td align="center">Doug Davis (3.58)</td>
<td align="center">Matt Wise (2.73)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1997</td>
<td align="center">Ben McDonald (3.14)</td>
<td align="center">Scott Karl (4.58)</td>
<td align="center">Doug Jones (2.38)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1994</td>
<td align="center">Bob Scanlan (3.63)</td>
<td align="center">Bill Wegman (4.10)</td>
<td align="center">Ricky Bones (4.76)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1992</td>
<td align="center">Bill Wegman (3.04)</td>
<td align="center">Chris Bosio (3.77)</td>
<td align="center">Jamie Navarro (4.22)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1991</td>
<td align="center">Bill Wegman (3.16)</td>
<td align="center">Chris Bosio (3.77)</td>
<td align="center">Jamie Navarro (4.06)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">1995</td>
<td align="center">Teddy Higuera (3.25)</td>
<td align="center">Moose Haas (3.50)</td>
<td align="center">Danny Darwin (4.12)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>To provide context for the significance of this pitching accomplishment, consider the fact that the Brewers have five 2.0 WARP position players in 2017, as well. However, by comparison, Brewers teams have had five or more 2.0 WARP position players in 2016, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 1996, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1987, 1983, 1982, 1979, 1978, and 1972, according to Baseball Prospectus Team Batting Statistics (CSV retrieved September 27, 2017). So, indeed, this pitching performance is special for the Brewers, and makes the 2017 club a true anomaly in the history of the franchise, a true pitching-first ballclub.</p>
<p>The 2017 Brewers are already one of the very best clubs in franchise history, and each win as the season closes should hopefully keep the team in the playoff hunt <em>and</em> solidify this historically good standing within the franchise.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>There will be an entire offseason to assess this club in terms of what&#8217;s next, but it should be immediately clear that this 2017 team is somewhat of an anomaly. There are no real stars (only Travis Shaw has reached the 4.0 WARP level), and the club&#8217;s identity is in the rich assemblage of depth players who just needed a chance to play. Manny Pina, Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar, Keon Broxton, Jonathan Villar, and maybe even Eric Sogard fit this mold as players producing 1.0 to 2.0 WARP in 2017; not one of these players is a standout, or perhaps even a member of the next &#8220;planned&#8221; Brewers contending core, but together they are worth nearly 8.0 WARP to the club. The offseason will be the occasion for deeper dives into the talent of this club and their likelihood of continuing success with this roster, but two things are certain:</p>
<p>(1) This Brewers club is a <em>team</em> in the truest sense, with a real identity across the diamond. I hope that when the club is building &#8220;planned&#8221; contenders, they do not forget the lessons learned when seeking ignored or unproven avenues of talent. Hopefully the next &#8220;planned&#8221; contender does have a productive Lewis Brinson or Corbin Burnes, named by the club as the 2017 Minor League Players of the Year, but it would not be all that bad to have a 2017 Manny Pina, 2017 Chase Anderson, 2017 Jimmy Nelson, or 2016 Jonathan Villar coming along for the ride as well.</p>
<p>(2) Let&#8217;s hope these Brewers continue to win out, because this pitching-first club with a deep and lights out bullpen and two notably better than average starters (Anderson and Davies) could wreak havoc in short form playoff series. All Milwaukee needs to do is get there, so get there! Go Brewers!</p>
<hr />
<p>Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USAToday Sports Images</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Ten Cent Beer Night</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/15/ten-cent-beer-night/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/15/ten-cent-beer-night/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Aug 2017 12:10:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Roberts]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[1971 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[1971 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers ten cent beer night]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland ten cent beer night]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milwaukee Brewers history]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB ten cent beer night]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ten cent beer night]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[“Ten Cent Beer Night.” The phrase evokes a kind of disbelief in baseball fans of a certain age, that there could be a time when ballparks would run promotions that in hindsight seem like they would have such predictable consequences. Cleveland’s ten-cent beer night is up there with “Disco Demolition Night” as one of baseball’s all-time [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“Ten Cent Beer Night.” The phrase evokes a kind of disbelief in baseball fans of a certain age, that there could be a time when ballparks would run promotions that in hindsight seem like they would have such predictable consequences. Cleveland’s ten-cent beer night is up there with “Disco Demolition Night” as one of baseball’s all-time ill-advised promotions.</p>
<p>But, on June 18, 1971 Milwaukee held their own ten-cent beer night. Milwaukee&#8217;s was three years years before Cleveland’s, and for whatever reason it isn’t remembered in the same way. Perhaps it was the rain-dampening attendance cooling off the fans (or hydrating them through osmosis), or maybe Milwaukeeans held their alcohol better that season (unlikely, from the game reports afterward). Whatever the reason, Milwaukee’s ten cent beer night has mostly been lost to a few bemused newspaper accounts and parts of memories from those in attendance that night. Its legacy is not even a minor footnote in Milwaukee baseball history, but still an enjoyable look back at what was certainly a different time in the Brewers’ early struggles in Beertown.</p>
<p><strong>The Promotion</strong><br />
Dick Hackett, then the Brewers’ ticket sales director, argued in newspapers that weather had been keeping attendance down in the team’s second full season in Milwaukee. Being 10.5 games back of the Oakland A’s probably wasn’t helping, either. So it was with optimism that the day before the game Hackett announced that advance ticket sales were up to 15,000 and the rather bold prediction that the Brewers would outdraw their season-high of 45,000 from opening day.</p>
<p>The promotion was announced in early June in papers across the state, from towns far away as Eau Claire and newspapers as small as the Manitowoc Herald-Times. In those press release-type announcements, then-team owner Bud Selig announced that local breweries would be setting up stands around the stadium and perhaps a bit idealistically called it “an example of community collaboration that will make this franchise the great franchise we know it will be.”</p>
<p>Looking back almost 50 years later, now-Commissioner Emeritus Selig recalled the idea being his in a telephone interview with me, but noted that several other clubs were trying out the promotion before that time. Normally, beer was going for 50 cents a cup at County Stadium, which itself would be an unprecedentedly wild night at current-day Miller Park. Considering inflation, that ten cent discounted promotional price for a beer would <a href="https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=.10&amp;year1=197106&amp;year2=201707">amount to 60 cents today</a>.</p>
<p>In preparation for the promotion, Selig made 1,000 barrels of beer available, and the <em>Sheboygan Press</em> added that the Brewers would also include “strolling groups of colorfully-dressed minstrels, an array of barbershop quartets, a dixieland band &#8216;The Red Hot Sevens,&#8217; and an antique beer wagon.” It really makes you wonder what ideas were <em>rejected </em>from the night.</p>
<p>For the gameday operations staff, it was another day at the ballpark prior to the game. Dan McKinney, 80, has been <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/milwaukee/2017/04/02/milwaukee-brewers-vendor-dan-mckinney-marking-his-64th-year-ballpark-concessions/99877944/">a vendor at Milwaukee baseball games since 1954</a>, and spoke with me recently about his experience and ten-cent beer night in 1971. “It was a new thing, we didn’t really know what to expect,” he said.</p>
<p><strong>The Game</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/08/JS.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9777" src="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/08/JS.jpg" alt="JS" width="2500" height="1406" /></a></p>
<p><em>Photo from Milwaukee Journal, June 19, 1971 </em></p>
<p>Coming into the game, the Brewers were on a 2-10 stretch and things weren’t going to get any easier facing the first-place A’s at County Stadium. It was a season that would mark the beginning of the A’s early-70s dominance. They had finished in second place in the AL West in 1970, and the 1971 season would be the team’s true breakout, winning over 100 games and finishing with an unbelievable 55-25 record on the road. Reggie Jackson by then was already an All-Star and appearing on MVP ballots. Oh, and Catfish Hunter was starting.</p>
<p>The rain again foiled the Brewers’ attendance plans as they drew a disappointing 27,474, far short of the 45,000-plus the club hoped for. Ticket director Dick Hackett thought a pregame downpour cost the team at least 10,000 in ticket sales.</p>
<p>Brewers manager Dave Bristol was in no mood for the festivities, barbershop quartets or not. After the team’s most recent loss before the Friday home game, he gave his team “a tongue lashing” and held practice on Thursday, a scheduled off-day for the team. Up to that point in the season, the Brewers had been led offensively by left fielder John Briggs, who came into the game slashing .266/.361/.461. Skip Lockwood was set to toe the rubber against the fearsome A’s the day after the director of baseball operations, Frank Lane, told reporters that the pitching staff “can’t be in awe of hitters with reputations like the Robinsons and Boog Powells.”</p>
<p>Lockwood gave up a leadoff single to Bert Campeneris, but quickly forgot about his awe of the A’s hitters after the Brewers caught Campeneris stealing; Lockwood struck out Joe Rudi and got Reggie Jackson to pop up to the shortstop. Catfish Hunter faced the minimum in the Brewers’ half of the frame, erasing a Dave May bunt single with a double play to end the inning. Both pitchers set down the opposing lineup in order in the second, but it came unraveled for the struggling Brewers in the third inning.</p>
<p>Facing the bottom of Oakland’s potent order, the play-by-play reads:</p>
<p>Strikeout<br />
Single to RF<br />
Single to CF<br />
Single to RF<br />
Single to LF<br />
Reached on E6<br />
HBP<br />
Sac Fly<br />
Picked Off (Jackson scores)</p>
<p>If fans weren’t ready for ten-cent beer night yet (they were), the three unearned runs probably convinced them.</p>
<p>The <em>Milwaukee Journal </em>reported that “fights broke out in all sectors of the park,” and oddly, in the same article reminisced that “It was Old Milwaukee. It was the glory days of carry-ins and rowdy crowds at Braves games.”</p>
<p>The reports from during the game are a monument to excess and the inherent problems when beers are nearly free at a ballgame. A sampling:</p>
<p>“One man ordered 130 beers and his group finished them by the sixth inning.”</p>
<p>“Four youths from Rockford, Illinois still had 24 cups left when the game ended and at last sight were seen finishing them off.”</p>
<p>“A companion&#8230;said that the group [of 4] had finished 104 beers by that point.”</p>
<p>Dan McKinney, the long-term beer vendor saw much of the same. “It was all night, long lines and multiple orders. People had trays, they had boxes, anything where they could carry a large number,” he said. “They weren’t necessarily for a lot of people&#8211;mostly for themselves.”</p>
<p>The A’s win expectancy at that point was 92 percent and the Brewers never really threatened for the rest of the game, not that the fans in attendance necessarily noticed. One fan was removed unconscious in his seat by police. His friends were quoted in the Milwaukee Sentinel, unconcerned, saying “we have to pick him up at the station on our way home.”</p>
<p>In fact, the lack of documented police action is shockingly almost non-existent from the game, given the Journal’s report that “a favorite pastime of fans seemed to be fans, police, and ushers with cups of beer- and the contents therein.” Milwaukee County unfortunately only retains arrest records and case reports for seven years, so it’s hard to say exactly how involved officials had to get during the game.</p>
<p>For the most part, though, eyewitnesses at the game don’t remember the insanity of Cleveland’s ten cent beer night or Disco Demolition in Chicago.</p>
<p>By his own estimates, Ken Gniotczynski was going to 40-50 Brewer games a year in the 70s. He prides himself on not needing Google to look up information about the games, and he was pretty much dead on about his verifiable recollections when I talked to him in June. He admits he and his friends took advantage of the discounted beers but that they weren’t really the trouble-making type.</p>
<p>“The stands got a little crazy at times, but I don’t remember any real trouble,” Ken said. “The thing I remember the most was Reggie Jackson wearing a helmet out in right field. He probably thought something was going to happen out there&#8230;The outfield players for both teams kept turning around to see what was going on and were watching for thrown beer.”</p>
<p>At least one unnamed Brewer reliever after the game seemed to agree with Ken’s recollections. “I’ve never seen anything like it&#8230;It was the wildest crowd I’ve ever seen. They were throwing beer and beer cups all over the place.”</p>
<p>The Brewers finally gave the home crowd something to cheer about (well, something on the field to cheer about, anyway) in the bottom of the third as they broke through with a run-scoring sacrifice fly off Hunter. Skip Lockwood righted the ship in the fourth without any damage from the bottom of the A’s order.</p>
<p>First baseman Frank Tepedino led off the Brewers’ half of the fourth with a home run, getting the Milwaukee nine as close as they would come to the A’s that night. It was Tepedino’s first of six career home runs. “Naturally, it was quite an occasion for me,” Tepedino said after the game. But perhaps not wanting to get too ahead of himself, followed up by saying, “but it’s too bad it didn’t mean anything. It’s just another time up and another hit, really, when you lose.”</p>
<p>John Morris came in to replace Lockwood with one out and one on in the 5th, and Morris and Hunter held the game without any more scoring through the 7th.</p>
<p>The party in the stands continued unabated.</p>
<p>“I worked in the upper deck in those days,” said Dan McKinney, the beer vendor. “The big thing I remember was I was glad when it was over. It was non-stop. People came to us, we didn’t go anywhere.”</p>
<p>The legal drinking age in Wisconsin at that time was 18, and there was no stadium policy as far as how many beers a patron could purchase in one transaction, as there is now. The <em>Journal</em> noted that some fans didn’t even leave the vending areas throughout the game.</p>
<p>It’d be easy to imagine that few in the stands noticed Catfish Hunter’s RBI single to score Dick Green in the 9th to end the scoring for the night. After that, Catfish was back on the mound and completed the game for one of his 16 complete games that year, a new career high.</p>
<p>The final out came with Rob Ellis being thrown out on a 9-6-2 putout at home. Ellis said afterward that he stumbled over third on his way home, but third base coach Cal Ermer tried to take the fall for his player, saying “it was my fault entirely.”</p>
<p>The hometown team had lost and failed to turn around their season against the powerhouse A’s, but there was still joy in Mudville. A busload of fans from Waterloo and Beaver Dam were returning home, and told a <em>Sentinel </em>reporter that they had finished off ten cases of beer before they got to the stadium (WHY?!?) but still thought they had enough for everyone to have a six-pack on the drive home.</p>
<p>Vendor Dan McKinney recalls “a lot of litter with cups all over after the game, and spillage from people trying to carry all those beers.” The A’s won by a final score of 6-2. The game, for the beleaguered players, gameday staff, and probably just some poor fans that wanted to enjoy a game on a Friday night who purchased their tickets months in advance and wanted no part of ten cent beer night, was mercifully over.</p>
<p><strong>After the Game</strong><br />
The Brewers would also drop the next two games against the A’s after ten cent beer night, but followed up that 2-13 stretch with a 9-2 run. Frank Tepedino’s homer wasn’t quite the spark that would carry the Brewers to a Cinderella season, as they would go on to finish the season in last place in the AL West and fourth-last in attendance. Ten cent beer night couldn’t be held responsible for that, though, as that game was the club’s fifth-highest attended game of the season.</p>
<p>And even though there weren’t any documented serious problems that arose from the promotion, it’s probably telling that the club never tried it again.</p>
<p>“Dollar hot dog nights are really popular,” said Dan McKinney, the beer vendor. “The thing is, hot dogs don’t change your behavior that much. It’s [ten cent beer night] probably not the best idea.”</p>
<p>Perhaps unable to escape the numbers and statistics that define baseball, the Brewers released the final report on ten cent beer night the following day: 700 kegs tapped and 140,000 cups sold for an average of five 10-ounce cups of beer per fan. In other words, for every child in attendance that was too young to drink, there was a fan who drank 10 beers over the course of nine innings.</p>
<p>In addition to one feeling thankful that they weren’t in attendance that night, you might also feel relieved that nothing too serious happened. For all the light-hearted treatment of the fans who overdid it at the game, it really is fortunate that it didn’t end up worse &#8212; certainly for the safety of players and fans, but also for baseball in Milwaukee. The nascent franchise was just in its second year and already struggling with attendance, so who can say what might have happened if the city or the game in Milwaukee were given a black eye right from the start.</p>
<p>But luckily for Milwaukee fans, it didn’t, and baseball is alive and well. Instead, Milwaukee’s ten cent beer night is simply an anomaly in the city’s baseball history, a product of a different time and attitudes toward drinking and public relations.</p>
<p>Perhaps the mindset and thought process of the wild time in 70s baseball, for MLB as a whole and certainly the young Brewers franchise is best captured during my conversation with Commissioner Emeritus Selig.</p>
<p>“Ultimately, was the promotion a success in your mind?”</p>
<p>We’re talking during a Brewers get away day game, and there’s a long pause as the former owner and commissioner watches a Brewer hitter single up the middle.</p>
<p>“What was the attendance?”</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>References and Resources<br />
<em>Milwaukee Journal,</em> June 19, 1971. “Fans have blast, dime at a time.”<br />
<em>Milwaukee Sentinel</em>, June 19, 1971. “Thirsty Brewer fans quaff for a dime.”<br />
Baseball-reference.com box score, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL197106180.shtml">June 18, 1971</a><br />
<em>The Capital Times,</em> June 19, 1971. “Brews’ beer night draws by 27,474.”<br />
<em>Wausau Daily Herald</em>, June 21, 1971 “Brewer fans like their brew.”<br />
<em>Sheboygan Press</em>, June 18, 1971 “Brewers hope for big crowd.”<br />
<em>Sheboygan Press</em>, June 16, 1971. “Brewers plan jolly homecoming to end nine-game road trip.”<br />
<a href="https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl">CPI Inflation Calculator</a>, Bureau of Labor Statistics.<br />
Phone interview with Bud Selig, June 22, 2017.<br />
Phone interview with Dan McKinney, August 7, 2017.<br />
Email interview with Ken Gniotczynski, June 12-13, 2017.</p>
<p>Image: <a href="https://twitter.com/Brewers/status/520256863011864577">Milwaukee Brewers</a></p>
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