This is a fascinating development for a franchise that has not been known for pitching, and fans and analysts may have to get used to this scenario: the arms are ahead of the bats across the system. In 2017, while consecutive first round draft picks Corey Ray and Trent Clark backpedaled, pop-up pitcher Corbin Burnes posted a phenomenal year and saw his stuff tick ahead after noted mechanical adjustments in his delivery. But the pitching development hardly ends with Burnes, who exemplifies the current stock of middle-to-back end rotation starting pitching prospects that grade out as thoroughly solid quality within that role; reports cooled on Cody Ponce, but he had a ho hum innings building season, as did Luis Ortiz at Class-AA; Freddy Peralta was chasing Burnes for most impactful pitching season within the minors; his trademate Carlos Herrera took a big step forward in full season ball; and behind these quality depth options, Trey Supak, Josh Pennington, and others still had quite fine seasons.

Related Reading:
2017 Brewers Minors: Bats

There is a type of depth with these pitchers that simply cannot be matched by the current bats in the Brewers system. Currently, the bats feature multiple risk factors, especially in terms of developing hit tools. This profile not only suits graduates Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips, but also the aforementioned Clark and Ray, among others. Perhaps the selection of Keston Hiura in the 2017 draft is most important to counteract this risky trend, although Hiura simply reapplies that risk in a different area of the game. If the Brewers bats currently fit the profile of “could be big tools impact” / “might not make it out of a bench role,” the arms are quite the opposite, with no true top-end pitching prospect in the system. It’s a beautiful thing: not one ace. But among those non-aces, perhaps a number of starters that could prove as “boring” as Zach Davies, or have question marks answered like Chase Anderson or even Jimmy Nelson.

One gets the sense that these Brewers arms could be plugged in the rotation any which way, which should be considered an exciting affair given the recent hype of pitching coach Derek Johnson’s blank-slate, situational-personal coaching approach. It should also be mentioned that in an era of velocity, the top Milwaukee arms are hardly flamethrowers, which adds an interesting question about whether the Brewers are exploiting undervalued aspects of the game (I know that’s a played out question by now, but still…), or simply whether the Brewers have found a profile of arm that fits their system or organizational approach.

To accompany the statistical index of 2017 Brewers minor league bats, I have prepared an index of statistics for the 2017 arms in the affiliated ranks. To provide basic consistency with the survey range for the bats, I translated the initial scale of 50 batting PA to 16.7 pitching IP for assessing seasons. This largely produced a similar number of players across leagues, which also means that league median statistic figures should have a solid range to reflect statistical context.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, righty Eric Hanhold played his age-23 season at Class-Advanced A Carolina, where the median age was also 23; his index is therefore 1.00 for that statistic.

It should be noted that I calculated the index in a different way for pitching prospects in order to remain consistent with the batting index. This means that an overall index greater than 1.00 suggests that a pitcher’s OPS-allowed was better than the average contextual indicators in the league, and that an index below 1.00 means that pitcher was below average given the context of the league. In order to provide additional context to an index that only weighs age, park factor, and opposing OPS alongside OPS-allowed, I added a Deserved Run Average (DRA) index so that readers can compare outcomes and reflect on the validity of the OPS-allowed index.

This index is slightly different than the batting index, since there are different OPS values for pitchers and their opponents (for example, a batter is facing tougher opposition if the opposing OPS is lower; for pitchers, tougher opposition means higher OPS from opponents). For this reason:

+1.00 Age Index means “younger” than league average age.

+1.00 oppOPS Index means better than average opponents (compared to the league).

+1.00 Park Index means hitter’s park.

This index should not be read as a significant, be-all / end-all assessment of pitching performance. Instead, it should be read alongside other statistics and scouting reports as an indicator of the context in which the pitcher performed, as well as how their advanced performance (via DRA) compared to the league.

A few observations:

• Like the batting index, the “non-prospects” immediately dominate this pitching index. Trey Supak has been a deep cut since the Brewers acquired the projection-upside play in the Jason Rogers trade, and the righty worked what finally would be his first full season….at age 21. Taylor Jungmann is hardly even old for Class-AAA Colorado Springs as an organizational depth option. Quiet relief prospect Bubba Derby, a member of the Khris Davis trade, worked a season that matches the “contextual” aspects of Corbin Burnes or Supak (his trademate Jacob Nottingham also had a fine season on the batting index). Freddy Peralta looks like loads of fun, bringing numerous fastball and off-speed / breaking ball offerings and a funky delivery to keep hitters off balance. In this case, the command aspects (and delivery repetition due to a crossfire set-up) of the scouting report should be read alongside the index to round out future role and expectations, but it is undeniable that Peralta placed himself on the radar of quality organizational depth (at worst) in 2017.

• Cody Ponce had quite an interesting year in terms of DRA deviating from his other contextual factors. In terms of OPS, age, and park factors, Ponce scored well in both Carolina and Biloxi. Yet, the righty’s DRA did not stack up against either league, with DRA index of 0.86 and 0.97 in both assignments, respectively. The big righty is making his way up the organizational ladder, however, and it’s tough not to dream on that cutter or fastball at least helping Ponce secure a solid bullpen role of some sort.

• BP scouting team member James Fisher provided a detailed description of Jordan Yamamoto for last season’s midseason prospect feature, noting that delivery refinements and stuff progression drove the righty’s stock. Yamamoto continued to build on that 2016 notice with an excellent 2017 campaign, arguably putting together the most interesting pitching season in the organization (Burnes received the hype, but Yamamoto could have defined a role).The righty was extremely young for the Carolina League, and if the progression continues, the youngster could be primed to expand on a 140+ IP floor during his age-22 season at Class-AA Biloxi. It is worth noting that Yamamoto did not face tough competition in Carolina, although the funky park factors and his age did mightily correct for that indicator. If you’re skeptical about the index, DRA likes Yamamoto even more.

• Additional potential 2018 pop-ups / projection guys who posted better than average contextual index and DRA scores: Zack Brown, Josh Pennington, Braden Webb, and Thomas Jankins. Keep an eye on: Parker Berberet (!!!), Luis Ortiz, Jorge Lopez, Matt Ramsey, and Jon Perrin.

Let’s have a look at where the system stood for the previous update:

Now, here’s the competition through May 12:

There are a few things worth noting here:

• Brandon Woodruff is whipping the Pacific Coast League, but he’s faced one of the easiest opposing OPS among regular pitchers. It is still worth digging into Woodruff’s solidly above average strikeout and walk rates, and also emphasizing that Woodruff has maintained his 48 percent groundball: 52 percent flyball ratios established at Class-AA Biloxi last season. Everyone is excited to see Woodruff take the next step to Milwaukee, but as with Lewis Brinson, take that shiny surface statistical performance with a grain of salt and expect a slightly more average MLB role.

• On the contrary, what role can one present for age-30 phenom Paolo Espino? In terms of scouting stuff, no one would place Espino ahead of Woodruff. Espino seems like a pitchability-supreme guy. And so he is, outpitching Brewers fans’ current favorite pitching prospect while facing significantly tougher opponents (.756 oppOPS to Woodruff’s .724 mark). With Junior Guerra returning from the disabled list, and a series of rotating improvements among Brewers starters, Espino may find it easiest to sneak into an MLB bullpen role. But, handling a tough PCL does lead one to wonder whether Espino could start; we’ll split the difference and call him a pitchability swingman for 2017.

• We await scouting updates on Trey Supak, but as recently featured on BPMilwaukee, the young righty is maximizing his time in the Midwest League. Supak is posting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio among Wisconsin starters. For the future, watch his flyball rate (currently 66 percent) and look for scouting updates on Supak’s third pitch.

• Might we praise the 19-16 Biloxi Shuckers, those Shuckers outplaying a sub-.500 run differential in an extremely tough environment? The Shuckers, the gem of the Brewers system breakout in 2015, are the forgotten affiliate in 2017, as the in-between prospects from last year’s forgettable Brevard County club and the remainder of 40-man roster depth and advanced minors veterans forge a supreme sub-hype crew. Shuckers bullpen leaders Matt Ramsey, Nick Ramirez, Taylor Scott, Forrest Snow, and Bubba Derby have a lot to say about that, with a cumulative 102.3 IP, 104 K / 46 BB / 7 HR (0.20 Fielding Independent Pitching ratio), and 32 runs allowed (2.82 runs average against an approximate 3.71 park-adjusted run environment, good for 10 runs prevented).

• And yet they win, lead by Jorge Lopez and Luis Ortiz. Lopez and Ortiz have both faced notably tougher-than-median opponents, and within this duo Ortiz has faced even significantly tougher opponents still. But no sweat, as the median-age Lopez and very-young Ortiz are posting strong K:BB ratios. From here out, keep an eye on the flyballs, as both righties have flyball rates above 60 percent; this figure may fly in the suppressed environment of Biloxi, but could be very problematic at Miller Park (currently playing a 102 pitching park factor over thee years, according to Baseball Reference).

Additional Contributors:
Noah Nofz
Sean Roberts

With the season opening for Milwaukee’s full season affiliates (Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Class-Advacned A Carolina Mudcats, Class-AA Biloxi Shuckers, and Class-AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox), here is how the system’s Baseball Prospectus Top 10 and “just interesting” guys will be distributed throughout the organization:

Each affiliate except the Colorado Springs club is beginning the season on the road:

Given the fact that the Brewers are rebuilding the MLB roster without necessarily fielding a club expected to be competitive, fans are understandably excited about the assemblage of talent in places like Colorado Springs and Carolina. But there is so much depth in the system that major stories could also emerge from Biloxi and Wisconsin. So, here is a look at a trio of storylines that BPMilwaukee contributors are interested in (myself, Noah Nofz, and Sean Roberts).

Low-A Battery (Noah Nofz)
Like a lot of us, I’ll be watching this year’s Brewers minor league affiliates like a hawk. Intrigue abounds at every level. Setting aside the obvious prospect glut at Class-AAA Colorado and Class-Advanced A Carolina, one particular tandem stands out: Right-handed pitcher Luke Barker and budding catcher Mario Feliciano of the low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers.

Barker and Feliciano form a fascinating battery. They are a symphony in contrast. Barker, 6’3”, is a 25-year-old hurler who went undrafted out of Chico State despite glittering numbers and a prototypical pitcher’s build. He spent last year with the Traverse City Beach Bums of the independent Frontier League, where he posted a 1.44 ERA and struck out 83 batters over 62.3 innings while only walking ten.

Feliciano, 18, was an early-round draft pick out of high school just last year. His aggressive assignment to full-season ball speaks volumes about the organization’s enthusiasm – and may have contributed to their decision to push another young backstop, Cooper Hummel, from the Pioneer League all the way to High-A Carolina.

They’re blazing entirely different trails, but tracking Barker and Feliciano as they push towards Milwaukee should provide plenty of thrills for Appleton fans.

The Exciting Gilbert Lara (Sean Roberts)
Over 246 plate appearances at rookie league Helena last year, Gilbert Lara slashed just .250/.293/.320 with two home runs, resulting in a TAv of .220. There’s nothing that really stands out in his statistical profile, except maybe the most important number for a prospect- his age. He’ll only be 19 this season, after the Brewers signed him as a 16-year old in 2014. While consistency has eluded him, he flashes tools once in a while that provide insight into Brewer scouts’ $3 million investment in him.

Scouts haven’t been crazy about his defensive ceiling either, suggesting he may be moved off of shortstop sooner rather than later, though he did post 5 FRAA this past season. So while there isn’t a lot to get excited about yet, a big 19-year old shortstop that has real power is something that Brewer fans shouldn’t dismiss as the rest of the farm system has drastically improved around Lara. While it would be foolish to predict a breakout anytime soon, he’s still one of the most intriguing prospects in the system that I’ll have my eye on and am fascinated to see if he can develop and fulfill more of that potential in 2017.

Sneaky Shuckers (Nicholas Zettel)
In terms of expected impact talent, Brewers fans are most thrilled about the collection of well-publicized prospects opening the season in Carolina and Colorado Springs. Yet, the Biloxi Shuckers, the locale of the system’s (arguable) first large step forward in 2015, host a set of intriguing MLB depth for the 2017 season. Fans probably do not read prospect coverage to be reminded that all the big names will not work out in Milwaukee, but that also should not preclude coverage of solid depth options that could expand the Brewers’ replacement options or even provide some out-of-nowhere stars.

In 2017, both members of the Khris Davis trade return open the season in Biloxi. This is a great chance for both Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby to advance their respective careers, and it is a testing ground of one of the more questionable rebuilding trades thus far (after 2016). Nottingham is the better-known prospect among this duo, as the catcher was highly renowned within the Oaklad Athletics system before hitting a slight roadbump as a supremely young catcher entering Class-AA for 2016. The catcher with raw power and a chance to stick behind the plate gets his second go at Biloxi, where he will hopefully feel less pressure to impress this season.

Meanwhile, the peripheral statistics show that Bubba Derby struggled during an arguably aggressive assignment to Class-Advanced A Brevard County last season, but the aggressive assignments continue as Derby will have to improve upon a 4.68 DRA, 45 percent groundball rate, and home run rate in the upper minors. Baseball Prospectus scout Steve Givarz graded Derby’s fastball and change up as potential 55 Overall Future Potential pitches in August, giving Brewers fans something to dream on for the depth righty to emerge as a potential relief pitcher in Milwaukee.

If you are inclined to be excited by the Carolina Mudcats infield of Jake Gatewood, Isan Diaz, Lucas Erceg, Luis Aviles, Weston Wilson and Wendell Rijo, I counter with the Biloxi set of Art Charles and Dustin DeMuth, Javier Betancourt and Blake Allemand, and Mauricio Dubon, George Iskenderian, and Angel Ortega. There’s no one among this set that has Diaz’s ceiling or Erceg’s fast-rising hype, but there are some solid tools that could find their way to Milwaukee to bolster a flexible MLB infield that could use more depth throughout the season. Dubon has a modest 45-50 profile that also does not seem to be particularly risky, and will have to prove in Biloxi’s environment whether his power gains that surfaced in 2016 are sustainable. Javier Betancourt has a glove-first approach at second base, which is a position that now has less depth between Milwaukee and Biloxi. Trent Clark and Nathan Kirby might get the most press from the 2015 draft, but this Shuckers infield also includes potential members of that draft that could graduate into depth roles (Iskenderian and Allemand might fight RHP Jon Perrin to be the first 2015 Brewers draftee to reach the MLB).

Anyway, don’t buy into the hype: or rather, don’t buy fully into the hype without considering the depth. As demonstrated above in Wisconsin, there is some talent in the Class-A club that could help define the identity of the system in coming years. In Biloxi, the prospect hype is considerably less shiny, but the roles are nevertheless important for establishing the staying power of Milwaukee’s rebuild. Don’t sleep on the Shuckers. It cannot be emphasized enough that the future success of the Brewers will depend on the depth of the system as much as star potential at the top.

Brew Crew Ball || Trade Analysis: Khris Davis Valuable Commodity for the Brewers (Feb. 13, 2016)

Khris Davis is neither a pitcher or a catcher, but both of the prospects he was dealt for are. Kyle Lesniewski over at Brew Crew Ball breaks down last Friday’s big trade, which sent the slugging left fielder to Oakland in exchange for a pair of prospects. Jacob Nottingham, the headliner of the deal for Milwaukee, ranks as the 66th-best prospect in the Baseball Prospectus Top-101 and represents far greater value on his own than your author imagined Davis might be worth this offseason that was flooded with outfield talent. As with all prospects, it’ll be a few years before we know the true value of Nottingham and Bubba Derby, but it appears at first glance that GM David Stearns has pulled off another coup.

Minor League Ball || Was Jacob Nottingham a good pickup for the Brewers? (Feb. 15, 2016)

Wayne Cavadi takes a look at Nottingham, a catching prospect with some questions on defense but very few on offense. There has been plenty of speculation that the 20-year-old slugger may not be able to stick behind the plate, but Cavadi says that even if he eventually needs to make a switch to first base, he has the bat to carry the position. If he can improve enough behind the plate to be a serviceable defensive catcher, the Brewers have a legitimately elite prospect on their hands.

BP Milwaukee || Did Chase Anderson have a Sophomore Slump? (Feb. 16, 2016)

We normally don’t feature our own site’s work in this space, but in keeping with today’s theme, I encourage you to take a look at Ryan Romano’s analysis of the major-league career of Chase Anderson, whose second year was either better or worse than his rookie season, depending on which stat you look at.

FanGraphs || How Badly Would You Hurt a Team for a Week? (Feb. 18, 2016)

Breaking away from today’s theme a bit to show you something I think you’ll have fun with, Matthew Kory, who can also be found at BP Boston, explores the damage you or I might cause in the hypothetical situation in which we were pressed into starting duty for our favorite ball club for a week. The results, as you might imagine, are not particularly pretty.

FanGraphs || How the Brewers Rebuilt Their Way Into KATOH’s Heart (Feb. 16, 2016)

Earlier this week, Chris Mitchell released his organizational rankings based on his KATOH projection system, which had Milwaukee as baseball’s top farm system by a rather large margin. In this follow-up, he explains how the Brewers amassed the kind of talent that his system is so fond of — KATOH is a particular fan of under-the-radar prospects Ramon Flores, Javier Betancourt and Keon Broxton.

Brew Crew Ball || 10 Things I learned about the Brewers in the 2016 Baseball Prospectus Annual (Feb. 16, 2016)

Speaking of things I don’t normally do in this space, this is a piece I wrote for Brew Crew Ball this week. I share it because I think it’s pretty good, but also to highlight the incredible work of the Baseball Prospectus staff on the 2016 BP Annual book, from which this entire article is derived. The aforementioned Romano took the lead with the Brewers’ essay in this year’s edition, and our EIC J.P. Breen led a group of BP writers in evaluating a number of Milwaukee’s prominent players. Check out my article here for a teaser, then maybe pop over to Amazon and think about grabbing your copy, if you’re among the minority that doesn’t already have one.

FanGraphs || The Best Transactions of the 2016 Offseason (Feb. 15, 2016)

Finally this week, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs counted down his top ten best transactions of the offseason (thus far), since everyone loves a rankings piece. The Brewers trade with Arizona that sent Jean Segura and Tyler Wagner to the desert in exchange for Aaron Hill, Chase Anderson and Isan Diaz checked in at no. 8 on the list, as the Brewers basically upgraded at pitcher and bought a top-15 prospect in exchange for the last decaying bits of Segura’s trade value and half of Hill’s contract. Cameron also did a worst transactions list, which of course includes the Diamondbacks side of this deal in the same no. 8 spot.