Tonight marked the first tilt in a four-game series against the Pirates. For the Brewers, this also proved to be the second-longest game of the season. In thirteen innings played, the Brewers used eight different pitchers that struck out ten batters. Their offense tallied twelve hits but also struck out fourteen times.

The Brewers first salvo came in the first inning. Scooter Gennett led off with a double to right field. Elian Herrera’s groundout advanced Gennett to third. A subsequent groundout from Ryan Braun brought the runner home. The offense continued as Adam Lind smacked a single to center field. Tired of the small ball, Khris Davis launched a dinger over the center-field wall, giving the Brew Crew the early lead, 3-0.

The Pirates remained silent as Wily Peralta blanked the Bucs through four scoreless frames. It was in the bottom of the fifth inning that the Pirates finally put a run on the board. Up until that point, Peralta had only allowed two hits. It was a walk, a single, and two consecutive flyouts that brought the Pedro Alvarez across the plate. Unphased by the small ball, Peralta promptly picked off Francisco Cervelli to end the inning. Pittsburgh did not score again with Peralta on the mound.

TURNING POINT

As BP Milwaukee’s Ryan Romano pointed out, the bullpen has been the saving grace of this team many times over. In fact, this season, Milwaukee ranks fifth in relief DRA (3.92) — behind clubs like the Royals (3.45), Astros (3.57), and the Mets (3.87). It came as no surprise that Counsell reached out to the bullpen to relieve an exhausted Peralta.

After six innings, Peralta had thrown 89 pitches. Through those innings, Peralta’s command was tight and controlled.

Unfortunately, by the seventh inning, Peralta was clearly gassed. Out of eleven pitches thrown, only three made it into the strike zone and only one of those three was a swinging strike.

Peralta gave up a hit to Jung-Ho Kang, unleashed two wild pitches which advanced Kang to third, and then walked Starling Marte to put men on the corners. Jeremy Jeffress came in to relieve Peralta. He did a fine job of getting Pedro Alvarez and #oldfriend Aramis Ramirez to strikeout swinging. But two walks — one to Cervelli and another to Travis Snider — loaded the bases, allowed the Pirates to score, and put the tying run ninety feet from the plate. Will Smith relieved Jeffress and made quick work of Gregory Polanco, ending the inning. A sudden home run from Andrew McCutchen in the eighth closed the gap and brought the game to a tie.

An otherwise superb outing from Peralta was marred in the seventh and eighth innings. The pitching ultimately fell apart and nearly cost the Brewers their fragile lead.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

Only nine games have been played in September, but so far, Khris Davis is posting a vastly improved on-base percentage. This is likely credited to his improved walk rate. Nine games may not seem like a large enough sample to prove any indication of an improved or declining walk rate. However, the month-to-month data for Davis may indicate otherwise.

July was an odd month for Davis as he only played 17 games. Plus, his first nine games in that month were also his first nine games back after being sidelined with an injury for all of June.

Interestingly, Davis is not only showing a more patient approach at the plate, he is also showing a decreased strikeout rate — 23.7 percent in September compared to 30.1 percent in August and 37.5 percent in July. If Davis is able to maintain his walk rate while still keeping his strikeout rate low, he will be a new threat at the plate, a patient hitter with significant power.

For your immediate attention, Jimmy Nelson takes the mound on Friday against Charlie Morton. In his last start, against Cincinnati, Nelson went 5.0 innings, gave up nine hits, and only struck out three batters. His command has not been consistent. Against the Reds, his pitches were ending up on the left side of the strike zone, an area that has been historically troublesome for him.

The resulting factor has been an inconsistent release point. When facing the Indians on August 26th, I pointed out that there was a slight tweak to his release point that cause his pitches to break low and to the right of the plate. Against the Reds, his release point was noticeably higher and slightly to the left from his release point when his command is solid.

Tyler Cravy successfully navigated the first four innings of Friday night’s game, holding the Cardinals’ offense scoreless. Things unraveled in the fifth. After Brandon Moss’s leadoff double, Stephen Piscotty hit an awkward soft liner to left field, which Khris Davis misjudged. The ball squirted past the Brewers’ outfielder. Moss scored and Piscotty strode into second base for the second double of the inning (+.131 WPA).

The inning would’ve been drastically different had Davis broke forward on the ball immediately; however, Piscotty didn’t make solid contact, and the baseball undoubtedly appeared much harder hit than it ended up being. Davis looked as if he did his best Carlos Lee impression in left field. It’s just important to recognize that it was a more difficult play than it appeared, and Davis doesn’t have the top-end speed to recover for a misplaced first step.

Still, the fifth inning represented the potential issues that Cravy will encounter in the majors. Moss and Piscotty took advantage of the right-hander doubling up on his approach the second time through the order. Cravy sequenced his at-bats in the same way he did in the second inning. Having four usable pitches, that shouldn’t happen. I’m unsure if this sequencing issue is more a criticism of Lucroy or Cravy — as it seems unlikely that Cravy is calling his own game as a rookie — but major-league hitters will take advantage of a pitcher without overpowering stuff if it’s not sequenced well.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA)

With the game scoreless in the third inning, Lucroy drew a leadoff walk from Cardinals’ starter Lance Lynn. Braun followed up with a brutal double play that eliminated the threat, which ended up being the Brewers’ best chance to take a lead (-.082 WPA).

Lynn didn’t mess around with Braun. His sinker has a 67 percent ground-ball rate this season, and the right-hander threw five-straight sinkers to the Brewers’ best hitter. Braun grounded to the shortstop, starting the double play. Lynn has historically been tremendous against the Brewers. That continued on Friday evening.

KEY MOMENT

The awkward double to left field by Piscotty in the fifth inning may have been the key moment, but the nail in the coffin came later in the frame. Randal Grichuk, who St. Louis acquired in the David Freese trade in 2013, continued his fine run of form with a three-run homer that put the Cardinals up by six runs and put the game out of reach.

Grichuk is hitting .287/.335/.579 with 14 homers in 2015, effectively solving the Cardinals’ issues in center field. He clobbered a 91-mph fastball that split the plate in two to right-center field. Hitters started to be able to key in on Cravy’s fastball, as he had trouble throwing his offspeed offerings for strikes. In fact, the four extra-base hits in the fifth inning came against fastballs.

In a single inning, the game transitioned from a pitcher’s duel to a blowout. Unfortunately, the Brewers were on the wrong end of it.

TREND TO WATCH

Over the last two years, Lance Lynn has posted a 2.75 ERA in 331.0 innings. He’s struck out nearly a batter per inning and has only allowed 21 home runs. In essence, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the National League since the beginning of 2014. It has come with an increased usage of his fastball, too, as he’s now throwing his sinker or four-seamer 85.3 percent of the time.

I’ve mentioned several times this season that Lance Lynn against the Milwaukee Brewers is as close to a sure thing as exists in baseball. The right-hander has a career 2.36 ERA against Milwaukee over 91.1 innings. Milwaukee hast historically struggled against hard-throwing fastball/slider pitchers, and that’s proven true against Lynn.

Amongst teams Lynn has faced at least five times, he only has a better career record against the Houston Astros (2.18 ERA) and Colorado Rockies (2.30 ERA). As such, it shouldn’t be surprising that Lance Lynn handled the Brewers yet again. He feels comfortable against the Crew.

COMING UP NEXT

Jaime Garcia has struggled with injuries over the past couple years, but he’ll get the nod on Saturday evening for the Cardinals. He has a 1.98 ERA and will face a Brewers club that has uncharacteristically struggled against lefties this year. Their 74 wRC+ is far below the league’s average.

Milwaukee will send Wily Peralta to the mound, who looks to rebound from a poor effort earlier in the week. The first pitch will be at 6:10 pm CT.

Will Smith entered the top of the eighth in relief of Jeremy Jeffress. Smith inherited two baserunners, Addison Rusell and Dexter Fowler. Smith was able to retire rookie Kyle Schwarber with a swinging strikeout on a 0-2 slider. Chris Denorfia followed up with a flyout to right field, almost escaping the threat. With Anthony Rizzo at the plate, on a 1-1 count, Smith served up a four-seamer right over the plate. Rizzo wasted no time crushing the innards out of the ball, putting the Cubs up 3-2 and wasting a gem from starter Jimmy Nelson (+.605 WPA).

The home run given up by Smith was uncharacteristic of him, as he has only given up one other home run this season. After setting up with a slider and changeup off the plate, the fastball looked like it was a pitch that had missed its spot.

The home run pitch was in the middle of the zone, just above the knees, exactly where Rizzo has been destroying baseballs all season. He has also been hitting over .300 against lefties in 2015. All of this resulted in the key moment of the game.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA)

The Cubs started the top of the eighth, trailing 2-0. Jeremy Jeffress had trouble locating his fastball, as he pitched three-straight balls to Addison Russell. On a 3-1 count, Russell hit a single up the middle. Fowler’s at-bat resulted in a single as well, putting runners on first and second. Counsell sent out Will Smith to relieve Jeffress in hopes of getting out of the inning unscathed. With Kyle Schwarber at the plate, Smith delivered a fastball that was hit foul. Smith followed with an 82 mph slider that landed for a strike. With the count in his favor, Smith pitched another low-80s slider that got Schwarber to whiff, putting the innings end within one out (-.097 WPA).

It was solid pitch sequence by Smith. Schwarber, who made his major-league debut last month, struggles against breaking pitches. Granted, there is not a lot of data to work with, but in the month that he has been playing in the bigs, Schwarber’s whiff rate against breaking pitches has increased from 8.33 percent in June to 23.08 percent in July. Smith, whose slider is making left-handed batters look foolish, used the pitch much to Schwarber’s disadvantage.

KEY MOMENT

Most of the positives in this game will be mired by the fact that the Brewers blew the lead with one out left in the eighth. I get that. But it should be pointed out that Jimmy Nelson pitched one-hit ball through the top of the seventh inning. The only hit he allowed happened in the top of the second when the dastardly Anthony Rizzo smacked a double to left. Aside from the lone hit, Nelson only issued two walks through his first six innings — he would eventually walk one more batter before his night was over. Through 104 pitches, though, Nelson was in control.

TREND TO WATCH

Looking at the entire season, Nelson is pitching about as well as we can expect. However, his a 3.97 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and 3.99 DRA does not tell the whole story. With the exception of a rough June, the batting average against his hard and breaking pitches has been pretty good for a back-end pitcher. It’s one of the main reasons why scouts suggest his upside is that of a number-two or number-three starter.

Digging deeper, however, while the batting average against Nelson has fluctuated,  the isolated power against his pitches has steadily decreased.

Batters may continue to get a hit off of Nelson, but when they do and if this trend holds, expect them to be weakly hit. It’s one of the main reasons why he has posted a 1.64 ERA in the month of July. He’s poised to put together a banner second half, hopefully giving him momentum for the 2016 season. The Brewers need him to develop into a quality starting pitcher, and he’s starting to flash his high-end potential this month.

COMING UP NEXT

Taylor Jungmann will face off against Jason Hammel. Jungmann is pitching well-beyond expectations. For those of us with a rooting interest in the team, it is difficult to temper those expectations, when he has been one of the better pitchers in the rotation, especially when he is part of the contingent that represents the future.

Fortunately for the Brewers, who have struggled offensively as of late, Hammel has been struggling since the end of June. In the past month, Hammel is sporting an ugly 4.10 ERA. Some have suggested that he hasn’t looked the same since returning from injury, and the numbers reflect that concern. The Brewers will look to capitalize on Hammel’s recent skid and right the ship.

First pitch is at 7:10 pm CT.