Breen also wrote about what a trade of this sort meant for the farm system, and that is the key to this follow-up. The Gomez trade brought back more than just Phillips. Domingo Santana, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser each looked promising to close out 2015. But more important than the performances of those individual players was what this trade indicated about the future of the franchise: They recognized they weren’t likely to compete in 2015 or 2016, so they worked to stock the farm system with as much talent as possible.

Importantly, though, the Brewers have continued to deal players that would help them in 2016 in the interest of securing their future. The November trade of Francisco Rodriguez brought back Javier Betancourt; while Betancourt probably won’t hit enough to be a star, he is still in the minor leagues and is under team control for at least six years—which shows the Brewers are in fact thinking about their next legitimate window of contention instead of holding onto Rodriguez in the arguably-worthless hopes that he would anchor their bullpen for one more year.

The subsequent Adam Lind and Jason Rogers trades signaled a similar philosophy. One can quibble with the returns—none of the five players the Brewers acquired in the deals is a sure thing—but they all appear to be solid prospects and, most importantly, are under team control for a long time. Lind and Rogers would probably have helped the team win a few more games in 2016, but kudos to the organization for recognizing that there isn’t much of a difference between 70 wins and 75 wins and instead shooting for much better in 2017 and beyond.

Gomez would probably have been the Brewers’ best player in 2016. Were he combined with Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, and Lind, the Brewers could have had a competent offense that got them a few extra wins this coming year. However, the organization wisely decided that they would be better off maximizing those veterans’ trade value, and the Gomez trade was the first indicator that they recognized this.

One interesting side note to this storyline is how the same philosophy has spanned multiple general managers. Doug Melvin made the Gomez trade in what was actually a bit of a surprise—general managers often try to save their job by maximizing current wins at the expense of future success in a phenomenon known as a moral hazard. Melvin, though, made a move that had the organization’s best interests at heart rather than his own before announcing he would be stepping down just two weeks after the deal. Then, new general manager David Stearns stepped in and immediately continued the trend. If I had to speculate about Melvin’s motivations, I would assume that he knew he would be transitioning out of the GM role even before he made the public announcement. Perhaps he understood this was the best jumping off point to a new regime in Milwaukee. Melvin wasn’t concerned with trying to save his job.

Alternatively, though, we could view this as a mandate from ownership saying that it was time to build for the future. I have written previously that I believe Mark Attanasio is a fantastic owner, and so I would not be surprised if he decided that the team needed to move forward and he directed Melvin to do so even before the new front office structure could be put in place. Either way, the Gomez trade signaled that the Brewers’ leadership group recognized that continually fighting for a few extra wins was a suboptimal strategy and that the best way to build a winner was to look to the future.

There are two clear favorites for this role: Jean Segura and Khris Davis. Both are big-league-quality players, and neither one appears to have a long-term future with the Brewers. Segura is a fringe-average shortstop who is likely to be replaced on an everyday basis by Orlando Arcia in the coming year (and who the Brewers already acquired a temporary replacement for in Jonathan Villar), and Davis is a corner outfielder who is only suited to be the short side of a platoon. If the Brewers are to maximize value, Segura should be traded to allow Arcia enough opportunity to play whenever he’s ready. And Davis is a viable puzzle piece for a playoff team, but the Brewers are not in a situation to use that type of role player.

As a shortstop, Segura has more trade value; however, that is part of the reason I believe he will be traded later. Stearns is clearly on a mission to make room on his 40-man roster and to move the spare parts for lottery-ticket prospects. Davis fits that bill more than Segura does. Teams will always be able to trade starting-caliber shortstops, but that is not so much the case for players such as Davis. This same logic applied to Lind and Rogers — as the rest of the teams fill out their respective benches, there is progressively less need for platoon corner infielders. Everyone signs their own, so there is no need to spend anything to acquire one.

For shortstops, though, this is not the case. Shortstops are painfully difficult to find; thus, many teams should hypothetically be willing to go out of their way to get one. One team to illustrate this phenomenon is the Mets, whose current rotation of Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada at shortstop is unspectacular. If, in February, the Mets decided they wanted to upgrade, Segura would be a logical choice — but there is no danger that they will fill that spot prior to a potential trade, as there simply are not enough quality shortstops for everyone to have one.

But Davis does not fill a similar scarcity. Corner outfielders with some power are relatively common; funnily enough, Chris Davis — who just signed with the Red Sox — has the ability to perform in such a role. Additionally, not every team needs one. Some teams, of course, have full-time outfielders so a part-time player such as Davis who cannot play center are not needed. This makes trading Davis before rosters are finalized a more urgent matter. 

The Lind, Rogers, and Rodriguez trades make it clear that Stearns realizes this fact. There is no big hurry to trade Segura; as injuries take their toll on the 2016 season, Segura may in fact be more in demand when the trade deadline comes and Arcia proves ready to be in the big leagues. Davis, though, has no clear role on the 2016 roster. Ryan Braun will play one of the corners, and the Brewers would presumably like to get Domingo Santana consistent at-bats in the other one, which would result in limiting Davis’ playing time. But with rosters filling every day, the Brewers likely need to move quickly.

David Stearns has consciously established a framework of depth from which to work this winter. Aside from two main positions — center field and first base — the current projected roster has sufficient redundancy to give Stearns the freedom to pursue the best-possible trade scenario, regardless of position. In other words, he’s given himself the ever-important flexibility needed to optimize his organizational roster. While this praise isn’t meant to suggest that Stearns has transformed the Brewers into legitimate contenders in 2016, it is meant to celebrate the intentional manner in which Stearns and his staff have amassed enough organizational depth to keep their hands untied in the trade market.

The following discussion will highlight particular pockets of roster depth and what that might mean on the trade market over the next couple months.

INFIELD OPTIONS: (C) Jonathan Lucroy, Martin Maldonado, Manny Pina; (1B) Jason Rogers, Ramon Flores; (2B) Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Villar, Colin Walsh; (SS) Jean Segura, Jonathan Villar, Yadiel Rivera; (3B) Garin Cecchini, Jonathan Villar

The two most talked about trade chips on the Brewers’ roster, Jonathan Lucroy and Jean Segura, played in a combined 245 games last year. The addition of Jonathan Villar in November signaled to many that Segura could be moved this winter; however, it was truly the Cecchini and Walsh acquisitions that gave Villar’s arrival potency. The organization valued his versatility, his ability to play multiple premium defensive positions in the infield, but it first appeared that he better fit the roster at third or second base. As such, the waiver claim of Cecchini hypothetically freed him from being the only viable option at third base, and the Rule 5 selection of Colin Walsh (who hit .308/.512/.450 against lefties in Double-A last year) no longer makes Villar a necessary platoon partner for Gennett.

In short, the Brewers now have coverage across the infield so Villar could be an everyday shortstop. That makes any trade of Jean Segura much more palatable because the club would not be scrambling in free agency, nor relying on Yadiel Rivera to punch above his weight, nor rushing Orlando Arcia too quickly to the majors. A Segura trade is certainly not a foregone conclusion. The club’s moves over the past six weeks have simply made it more possible.

The club announced after the Rule 5 Draft that catcher Manny Pina was the Player To Be Named Later (PTBNL) in the Francisco Rodriguez trade with the Detroit Tigers, something that barely got any attention outside a few mentions on Twitter. Not without reason, to be sure. He’s a 28-year-old minor-league journeyman and now joined his fourth organization in as many seasons. Still, if Lucroy were traded this offseason, the Brewers lacked any natural backup catcher in the system. But given the fact that Pina had two brief Major League appearances in his career and hit .305/.379/.461 in Triple-A last year, he’s a seasoned veteran who could handle 40-some starts behind Maldonado.

Again, this isn’t about fielding the next NL Central Champion in 2016 or 2017. It’s about competent coverage at the Major League level to ensure the Brewers have the flexibility to make necessary trades, while remaining respectable on the field. After all, the fans still deserve the latter part, and it’s one of the main ways the club will continue to coax fans through the turnstiles at Miller Park.

OUTFIELD OPTIONS: (LF) Khris Davis, Domingo Santana, Ramon Flores; (CF) Domingo Santana; (RF) Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Ramon Flores

The positional depth at the corner outfield spots is not due to any move Stearns authored this offseason; however, the trio of Braun, Davis and Santana should legitimately be starting on the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers. This roster crunch should present the front office with the ability to explore potential trades for any of the three. Davis is the most likely to go, given his torrid end to the regular season, but I do know that some teams have been sniffing around to see if Braun is available and to determine the potential cost.

It’s conceivable that Domingo Santana could be the starting center fielder for the club, but manager Craig Counsell and general manager David Stearns have both mentioned center field as a key target this winter. That leads one to believe that the Brewers do not want Santana starting 100-plus games in center. Since it does no developmental good for Santana to demolish the Pacific Coast League with Triple-A Colorado Springs or to languish on the Major League bench, it only makes sense that the Brewers plan to alleviate the playing-time issues with some kind of trade. It’s the content of that likely trade that remains a mystery.

STARTING ROTATION: (1) Matt Garza; (2) Wily Peralta; (3) Jimmy Nelson; (4) Taylor Jungmann; (5) Zach Davies; (6) Jorge Lopez; (7) Tyler Wagner; (8) Tyler Cravy

The starting rotation is perhaps an underappreciated source of depth on the Brewers’ current roster. Not in that it contains much top-end talent — if it did, the club wouldn’t be entering a full rebuilding project — but one could easily argue that eight players are capable of throwing Major League innings in 2016. Jorge Lopez, Ty Wagner and Tyler Cravy could easily begin the season in Triple-A Colorado. The problem with that plan, though, is twofold: (1) Colorado Springs is a dangerous place to develop pitching, due to the thin air and video-game-like run environment; and (2) Cravy and Wagner are the types of pitchers (the potential Quad-A guys) who don’t get a lot out of more minor-league work.

Moreover, the important point is that Milwaukee’s starting pitching depth affords them the opportunity to be creative on the trade market. The club would undoubtedly love to rid themselves of Matt Garza’s contract, which is akin to me suggesting that I’d really like to move to Ireland and do nothing but play golf everyday. Hypothetically possible but not happening anytime soon. Instead, David Stearns and the Brewers could explore what Wily Peralta could bring back in a trade. The Arizona Diamondbacks reportedly targeted Peralta as a potential rotation upgrade before breaking the bank to acquire Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller. And given the fact that Stearns has firmly indicated that he’ll entertain trade offers from all angles, Peralta is a legitimate trade chip that could bring back an interesting piece or two.

Of course, injuries and ineffectiveness have routinely plagued the Brewers’ starting rotation over the past two decades. The smart money is on Stearns staying the course in relation to the rotation and hugging his depth tightly. Another option is for the organization to scour the free-agent market for a low-cost starting pitcher to replace any potential departure — something 100 percent possible with the club’s low payroll obligations — but perhaps that’s getting a bit too cute. What is clear, though, is that Milwaukee actually has depth in the starting rotation and could absolutely cover any hole made by a trade. That roster flexibility makes someone like Peralta expendable this winter.

And none of this mentions the possibility of Josh Hader and Adrian Houser pushing the big-league club for playing time in the rotation by the All-Star Break. Hader, in particular, is getting a lot of love from rival scouts after his showing in the Arizona Fall League. The Brewers could move someone like Peralta with the expectation that Houser or Hader is ready for action by midseason — making Peralta even more expendable.

RELIEF OPTIONS: (RHP) Jeremy Jeffress, Michael Blazek, Corey Knebel, Tyler Thornburg, Yhonathan Barrios, David Goforth, Junior Guerra, Adrian Houser, Jacob Barnes, Ariel Pena, Zack Jones; (LHP) Will Smith

Every single team feels like they have depth in the bullpen. Hell, I’ve written numerous articles over the past half-dozen years celebrating the Brewers’ bullpen depth. Every single team also feels like they have upside in the bullpen. It’s the nature of the beast in bullpen construction. You’re dealing with small sample sizes and volatile arms. You’re always going to be able to play the “if everything goes right” game that inevitably leads to disappointment. It’s one of the reasons why contending teams have eschewed this line of thinking and have begun to supposedly overpay for elite bullpen arms — lessen the volatility as much as humanly possible and hoard as many elite options as one’s payroll can handle.

Both of those things come into play with the Brewers’ bullpen. The organization has amassed a smorgasbord of arms who have the ability to pitch in a Major League bullpen on Opening Day 2016. This means that the Brewers don’t have to resist trading a reliever because they don’t have the requisite depth to replace those innings, as they legitimately do. And because Major League Baseball has begun coveting top-tier relievers to an extreme amount, someone like Will Smith could net a pretty return. He’s a lot like Carson Smith — someone who hadn’t established himself as a “proven closer” but still managed to bring Wade Miley to Seattle in a trade. Translating that sort of value to the minors, and even though predicting trade returns is intensely abstract, it seems only natural to assume that Smith would be worth a legitimate prospect or two from a contending club.

Some have suggested that trading Jeremy Jeffress or Michael Blazek would bring the Brewers a sizable return, given their impressive 2015 performances, but I don’t believe that their projected performance going forward is not elite enough to tip the market in the Brewers’ favor. Someone like Smith, who posted a 2.70 ERA with extreme strikeout numbers (34.5 percent strikeout rate), can help transform a contender’s bullpen. He has the high-end potential and the pedigree to back it up. Neither Jeffress nor Blazek have that.

Still, the Brewers once again have ample flexibility and depth in their bullpen to explore useful trades. I suspect the organization would prefer to wait on Smith, allowing him to close games for three months and correspondingly inflate his value, than to move him this winter. If a team comes calling with a compelling deal, though, David Stearns and his team have done a masterful job building a roster with redundancies and versatility. It’s something that extends to the entire roster — save two positions. Stearns should be commended for his additions to the club thus far this winter. That quality work, though, almost ensures that he’s far from finished. In fact, the past two months can probably best be understood as laying the groundwork for later trades and free-agent signings, and that’s probably the best possible position for the Milwaukee Brewers at this moment.

One of the Brewers biggest remaining trade chips is Jonathan Lucroy. He’s already been linked in a number of rumors. One of the biggest problems with Lucroy’s market, though, is the question surrounding his value. The Brewers’ backstop, after all, is coming off one of his worst seasons as a professional ballplayer. Many (including myself) have pointed to the number of injuries Lucroy suffered this year. He broke his left toe early in the season, which seemed to heavily affect his play. He did, however, put up better numbers near the end of the season, which could give several teams hope that he can bounce back in the future.

While Lucroy’s true talent level is somewhat in question, a number of folks still believe Lucroy can bring back a handsome return in the trade market. The main argument points to the weak free agent class for catchers. The idea is that since there is a lack of catchers in the free agent market, teams will therefore have to turn their heads to the Brewers if they want to acquire a catcher, thus giving the Brewers all of the leverage. While the premise of this argument seems to make sense, I disagree with it. The biggest and clearest problem with this form of argument is that it only takes into account the supply without considering the demand.

J.C. Bradbury, author of Hot Stove Economics: Understanding Baseball’s Second Season, mentioned a very similar myth among the baseball free-agent class when he used to write on his blog sabernomics. His main point was that a free agents market is not affected by the number of free agents on the market, which play the same position, “It seems logical that more free agents at a position will mean more options for teams. Players act as substitutes and thus a team can pit the players against one another to keep salaries down. The problem with this is that the free agents have come from somewhere. A high number of players looking for new teams means that there is a corresponding number of openings that teams need to fill.” So, for example, if Yadier Molina was to become a free agent in 2015, that would increase the demand market for catchers. There would be another team looking to add another catcher, which could prove to be beneficial for the Brewers. If the Cardinals deemed the price in free agency for Molina too high, then they would certainly ask about Lucroy. Even if they didn’t deem the price too high, it would be extremely naïve and foolish for them not to ask about Lucroy.

This sort of argument was met with some pushback, however. The main one being that if a player becomes a free agent then that doesn’t necessarily create an opening. A player could be waiting to come and take his place from the minor leagues, or the team could simply restructure the alignment of their roster. This is obviously true. But as J.C. Bradbury pointed out, “It has nothing to do with the number of free agents on the market.” The idea is that both the supply and the demand are linked. Not one is of vastly greater importance than the other. When one suggests there are no catchers on the free agent market, which raises Lucroy’s value, they are taking into consideration only the supply but at the same time ignoring the demand. This is, of course, a crucial mistake.

One must also not simply take into consideration the free-agent market or the trade market. One must take into consideration the entire market as that will play into the demand and the supply. Too often do I hear people refer to the trade market or the free-agent market as separate entities. This is simply not the case. The market is one singular being and all parts affect it.

I think, and from what I can tell, Jonathan Lucroy is in high demand. The main reason Lucroy is in high demand, however, is not because there are bad free agent catchers. It is rather due to his extremely team-friendly deal, and due to his history of great performance. After all, it was not so long ago that we were discussing Lucroy as an MVP candidate. (The way teams project him going forward will have a factor into the calculus.) The point is that Lucroy’s market will be determined by how teams value him and the position the teams that value him are in. Teams, for example, who expect to be contending will value Lucroy more than teams who aren’t. These factors will all play a role in what should be an active market for Lucroy. But what is most important is his value. If a team that expects to contend believes Lucroy can provide an upgrade to their catcher position, they become another team creating demand. The next part is pinning each team against one another and looking at who is going to value Lucroy more. Who is willing to give the Brewers the best return for their asset?

This process is especially applicable to the Brewers because the new front office won’t have any special connection with most of the team’s current players. Often, this phenomenon is described as teams being irrationally high on their own players, but it is actually much subtler than that. The reality is that the team that ends up with a player necessarily thinks more of him than other teams do in the first place. Thus, it is not simply that teams are loathe to trade players they have; instead, it is the fact that they thought highly enough of these players to acquire them in the first place that makes finding trade partners unlikely.

But with David Stearns now in place of Doug Melvin, the Brewers front office isn’t likely to fall victim to that. Where Melvin may have thought more highly of players such as Matt Garza and Francisco Rodriguez than did the rest of the industry, Stearns has no such compunction. He may be irrationally high on other players — as evidenced by the acquisition of his former player, Jonathan Villar — but those people are unlikely to have been with the Brewers before Stearns’ hiring.

The end result of this is that most of the veterans on this team are fair game to be traded, and some will almost certainly be dealt before spring training. Adam Lind, for example, is under contract for only this upcoming season and is therefore a virtual certainty to be traded soon. Ideally, the Brewers would probably prefer to trade him before Opening Day, as at that point he will still be eligible for the qualifying offer with his new team and thus (hopefully) have more trade value.

Milwaukee has three obvious veterans other than Lind, and each is in a different position. Matt Garza is a candidate to be traded at the deadline to a playoff team looking for starting pitching depth, but such a trade is heavily contingent on Garza pitching well enough in the first half of 2015 to have any value at all. After being a competent big leaguer in 2013 and 2014 (1.7 and 2.0 WARP, respectively), his disastrous 2015 that was highlighted by a 5.36 DRA destroyed any possibility of a preseason trade. The Brewers simply would not get enough back for him to make a deal worth their while.

Jonathan Lucroy, though, does have significant trade value. By any WAR metric, he has been one of the best catchers in baseball over the past few years, and he is on an extremely affordable contract: $4 million in 2016 and a $5.25 million team option in 2017. Those numbers would be a bargain for an average starting catcher, but Lucroy is significantly better than that. The problem with trading him, though, is that the Brewers will likely hope to begin competing again in 2017 — and such a hope is not ridiculous given the age of many of their top prospects — and Lucroy can still be on that future team. Additionally, his defensive skills are well-documented, and the Brewers may want him to help develop their young pitching. When that fact is combined with his contract, the team should hold onto him unless they are absolutely blown away by a trade offer.

Ryan Braun is the final veteran to be discussed here, and he is probably the most irrelevant as he is probably mostly untradeable. The 2011 Vernon Wells trade proves that no contract is unmoveable, but it is difficult to imagine finding a team that will want to pay a fading outfielder with no defensive value nearly $100 million for the next five years.

Of the team’s younger players, Jean Segura is undoubtedly the most interesting. Players such as Khris Davis or Scooter Gennett are mostly spare parts and could very well be moved but are unlikely to bring back huge returns (although it should be noted that Davis is more valuable than Gennett). Segura, though, is an average Major League shortstop who is not a free agent until 2019, which makes him valuable. Cost-controlled shortstops are attractive to most teams, not just contending ones, but the presence of Orlando Arcia and Jonathan Villar makes Segura expendable. If the Brewers can get the big offer for him that they undoubtedly expect, a trade makes perfect sense.

The final piece of the Brewers’ offseason trade plan is actually several different players: the bullpen. They do actually have a few good relief pitchers, and those are exactly the players they should look to trade. Relievers are volatile, and it is difficult to predict which will be good more than one year out. Therefore, given the fact that they do not expect to compete this year, they should listen to calls on everyone. Michael Blazek had a promising 2015, and Jeremy Jeffress may very well close in 2016. Will Smith, though, is the key piece. The lefty hasn’t posted a cFIP above 80 (where 100 is league average and lower is better) since 2012, and his 69 cFIP in 2015 was good enough for 17th in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings. The Brewers may be able to get a truly valuable prospect for such a talented pitcher, although they may have to wait until July.

Overall, this article is attempting to suggest that the Brewers should not be tied to many of the players on their current 25-man roster, and they are in fact unlikely to be very connected. The cornerstones of the next good Brewers team probably spent 2015 in Double-A, so unless the members of the current roster can be of value to those young players (like Lucroy), the Brewers should attempt to move them.

• They need a third baseman for the future. In the 2011 offseason, Aramis Ramirez came to Milwaukee, where he manned the hot corner for three-plus years. The club traded him to Pittsburgh this past July, and they’d like to find someone to productively fill his place. GM David Stearns highlighted third base and center field (where Carlos Gomez, also traded in July, used to roam) as his top priority.
• They don’t really have a third baseman for the future. In center, the Brewers can expect Brett Phillips to blossom into a starter by 2017 or 2018. No such internal option exists for third base, where Gilbert Lara — the top prospect at the position entering the season — had a middling season at the rookie level, though it was an aggressive assignment. An 18-year-old, Lara will require at least several seasons to reach his potential, if he ever realizes it. Javier Betancourt, who came to Milwaukee in the K-Rod trade, could make the move to third at some point. He’s played up the middle for his entire career, though, and his bat has a pretty uninspiring ceiling. Overall, the farm doesn’t look like it can provide a starting-caliber third baseman for a foreseeable future.
• They do have plenty of outfielders for the future. Ryan Braun will presumably play right field for the next five years, while Khris Davis seems to have locked down left (barring a trade). Not content with these two, the Brewers have stuffed their system with men who can patrol the outfield. Phillips stands out as the best of the bunch, but Domingo Santana, Tyrone Taylor, Monte Harrison, and Clint Coulter could all develop into solid regulars.

Given this, it seems to me that the Brewers have a logical next move: trade a young outfielder for a young third baseman. It’s the classic instance of dealing from a strength to improve a weakness — and some of the (possibly) available options could really help the team.

Rio Ruiz, Atlanta Braves

Thanks to some recent moves, Atlanta has three third base types in its minor-league system. They include Ruiz, who came to the team in the Evan Gattis trade a year ago; Austin Riley, whom the team drafted in the first round this season; and Hector Olivera, whom the club acquired in the Alex Wood deal in July. This sort of logjam means at least one of them could hit the market. Since the Braves seem to be undergoing a deep rebuild, they’d likely make Ruiz — the most advanced and least exciting of the trio — available first.

Across 1,715 minor-league plate appearances, Ruiz has compiled a solid .263/.353/.399 slash line. An exquisite walk rate of 12.3 percent has helped him reach base often, while an 18.0 percent strikeout rate suggests he should make enough contact to stay relevant. As he ages (he won’t turn 22 until May), he may continue to add some power. He didn’t hit well in 2015, posting a .233/.333/.324 line in 489 trips to the dish at Double-A, but that occurred in a difficult environment for offense.

The biggest doubts about Ruiz’s future lie on the defensive side of the ball. While he owns a high-quality arm, scouts have critiqued his range to this point. BP’s scouting report last offseason stated that he would need to “further improve his footwork and lower-half actions” to stick at the third. If he can progress in this regard, he should pair a respectable glove with a noteworthy-enough bat — a combination that the Brewers would willingly accept.

Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks

As with Atlanta, Arizona’s farm affiliates possess a few captivating third-base prospects. Brandon Drury, the key piece in the Justin Upton trade three years back, will probably have priority there for the future. Yasmany Tomas and his sizable contract can also play the hot corner, although a corner outfield spot probably suits him better. That could leave Lamb as the odd man out.

As a 24-year-old rookie, Lamb certainly fared well in 2015, batting .254/.318/.382 en route to 2.3 WARP. That didn’t come out of nowhere — he demolished minor-league pitching, with a .321/.408/.552 career slash line. The issue for Lamb has always been strikeouts. A 21.0 percent K-rate below the show gave way to a 24.9 percent mark in his Major League debut. Still, he hits for power and takes walks, which should help his offense remain satisfactory (at least).

In addition to his offense, Lamb excelled this year on defense, where he earned 10.2 FRAA over a mere 782.2 innings. That sort of production will likely regress for the years to come, but Lamb shouldn’t become a negative in the field for some time. With an up-and-coming star banging on the door behind him, Lamb could depart soon; the Brewers wouldn’t hesitate to import his services.

Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals

The need here may be even more mutual than in Atlanta or Arizona. Not only does Kansas City have a starting third baseman in Mike Moustakas, they’ll need an outfielder if Alex Gordon signs elsewhere in free agency. Bringing in the 2013 first-rounder could really aid the Brewers.

Dozier has considerably greater potential than his minor-league numbers suggest. While a slash line of .249/.335/.390 won’t suffice in the majors, the raw power behind that hasn’t disappeared. Strikeouts (22.8 percent of his plate appearances) have plagued him to this point, but a healthy serving of bases on balls (10.8 percent) has helped negate those. After a brutal 2015 showing, he’ll look to bounce back in 2016, which would likely function as an in-between year for the Brewers anyway.

Should Dozier improve his hitting as needed, it will presumably become his calling card. This isn’t to say he can’t stick at third — earlier this year, BP complimented his “solid hands” at the position — but the bat will make or break Dozier’s career. At age 24, he clearly doesn’t have a good amount of time. Nevertheless, we could still see him tap into his ability someday, perhaps in the Brewer blue.

***

Ruiz, Lamb, and Dozier will probably never develop into All-Stars. If the Brewers did swing a deal for one of them, they would do so recognizing this. But these players can still succeed in the show, albeit with additional seasoning first. Simply receiving league-average production from the five-hole could help elevate Milwaukee back to contention.

Have another possible third baseman the Brew Crew could target? Drop a comment below or let BP Milwaukee know on Twitter. 

Baseball Prospectus || Detroit 2016 Top Prospects (Nov. 17, 2015) 

In a fantastic bit of fortuitous timing, BP released their annual list of Top-10 prospects for the Tigers just hours before one of them, eighth-ranked 2B Javier Betancourt, was dealt to Milwaukee for closer high-leverage reliever Francisco Rodriguez. Brewers fans that don’t care about the soul of their favorite baseball team will lament the departure of K-Rod, who has actually done a pretty good job re-inventing himself as a finesse pitcher as his fastball’s velocity has fallen into the high-80s.  The rest of bid good riddance to bad rubbish as K-Rod takes his tired “athlete with domestic violence issues” act across Lake Michigan, where we can only hope he will not view the change in scenery as license to get physical again after run-ins with the law at his last two stops in New York and Milwaukee.

Climbing Tal’s Hill || Houston Astros 2015 Season Recap: Jonathan Villar (Nov. 3, 2015)

Naturally, after a trade, writers for both teams are going to have some things to say about the players both coming and going. However, I find that the recent transaction often colors this analysis in one way or another, so when I’m looking for an honest assessment of a player, I want to find out what the locals were saying before they knew anything about a potential move. That’s what I’ve found here in this post from earlier this month from Aric Cisneros (@ariccisneros) over at Climbling Tal’s Hill, the Astros wing of Sports Illustrated’s FanSided network. The Brewers acquired SS Jonathan Villar from Houston on Thursday in exchange for Double-A starter Cy Sneed. Villar became something of a pariah for Astros fans as they impatiently awaited the arrival of Carlos Correa even though, as Cisneros points out, his numbers compare very favorably with ALCS MVP Alcides Escobar, who will never pay for a drink in Kansas City again.

Baseball America || Trade Central: Astros Clear 40-Man Spot With VIllar Trade (Nov. 19, 2015)

J.J. Cooper (@jjcoop36) brings his own analysis of the trade between Milwaukee and Houston on Thursday. While Villar is out of options, limiting Milwaukee’s flexibility with the 25-man roster somewhat, he isn’t arbitration-eligible until 2018 at the earliest, making him a very inexpensive option in the infield for the next couple of years. For Astros, perhaps the most immediatley valuable piece they received in the deal is the cleared spot on their 40-man roster on the eve of deadline for protection from the Rule 5 draft. Sneed’s ceiling is generally regarded as back-of-the-rotation starter, and he’s more likely to end up as Quad-A organizational depth.

Brew Crew Ball || SB Nation’s MLB Off-season Simulation: Faking a Brewers Rebuild (Nov. 18, 2015)

Okay enough with real #HotStove moves, let’s talk about some nonsense. I swear I’m not going to do this often, but I had a lot of fun both completing this simulation and writing about what I did, and I want to share it with y’all. Each November, Max Rieper (@maxrieper) at Royal’s Review, SB Nation’s Royals blog, gathers 30 of SBN’s writers to take over General Manager duties for each team and let’s them simulate the off-season over the course of the week. I had the keys to the Brewers front office this season, and made some moves in an effort to both improve the current MLB roster and bolster the minor league system, while slashing the payroll under $80 million. If you’ve got time for 3,000 words of pure nonsense, feel free to take a look.