Yes, Grandal or Realmuto would represent significant upgrades. But in the meantime, David Stearns, Craig Counsell, and the rest of the Brewers staff have been able to squeeze great value out of the current crop of time-shares and journeymen. Looking beyond the major league roster, catcher is a position full of surprising contributors up and down the organizational ladder. What follows is an overview of some of those contributors, as well as some brief notes on their outlook for the 2019 season and beyond. Upgrading would be nice; staying the course is probably fine, as well.

Major League Options

Player Name: Plate Appearances, Batting Average / On Base Percentage / Slugging Percentage, Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)

Manny Piña; 337 PA, .252/.307/.395, 1.7 WARP
For the second year in a row, Piña handled the lion’s share of catching duties for Milwaukee. He continued to be a steady performer, offering tolerable offense and sturdy defense. His offensive production fell off some, relative to his breakout 2017 campaign, thanks to a slow start and a dip in Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Piña turned it on in the second half, hitting .295/.328/.429 after the break even as he lost playing time to immortal folk hero Erik Kratz.

With just over three years of service time on his major league clock, Piña is controllable for three more seasons through the arbitration process. He’ll be 34 by then, so it’s likely that someone else will have wrested away the bulk of available playing time behind the dish. Still, he handles a pitching staff well, and figures to get plenty of turns through the order in 2019 barring a major roster shakeup.

Erik Kratz; 219 PA, .236/.280/.355, 1.4 WARP
Erik Kratz came to the Brewers via a surprise trade with the Yankees, and wasted little time in endearing himself to fans and teammates alike. Though he didn’t bring much of a big league résumé into Milwaukee, he performed quite well in limited time, making up for his anemic offensive output with superlative glove work (11.1 Adjusted Fielding Runs Above Average in fewer than 500 defensive innings!).

Kratz elected free agency when he was removed from the Yankees’ 40-man roster prior to the 2018 season. He re-signed with New York before his trade to Milwaukee, but finished the year with fewer than six years of big league service time to his name. He can be controlled via arbitration for the 2019 season, though at age 39, he may have retirement (or a late career surge as a knuckle-balling reliever) on his mind. I’m not betting on a return, much as my heart hopes otherwise.

Stephen Vogt; Did Not Play in Majors (Shoulder Surgery)
All-around good guy Stephen Vogt was limited to 9 plate appearances for the Biloxi Shuckers in May before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. It was the second major shoulder operation of Vogt’s career; his big league future is in jeopardy. I’m not aware of any public information on his rehab, but Vogt could be controlled via arbitration in 2019 if he’s able to work his way back to the ball field.

For his career, Vogt is a .251/.310/.416 hitter, good for a strong .267 True Average (TAv). He’s below-average with the glove, though, and struggled to throw out base runners even before re-injuring his throwing arm. He’s well-loved among his teammates, but Vogt’s path back to the majors may be as a reserve first baseman or a DH.

Jacob Nottingham; 196 PA, .281/.347/.528 in Triple-A
Public opinion of Nottingham was fairly sour heading in to the year, and it’s not too difficult to see why: A .209/.326/.369 slash line in your second year of AA isn’t going to win over many casual fans. Biloxi is a run-suppressing environment, though, in a tough league for hitters. So that same ugly triple-slash translated to a barely-above-average.264 TAv. This year, with much better baseball-card stats courtesy of Colorado Springs, Nottingham’s TAv in the minors was all the way up to .282.

Expecting that kind of production in the big leagues, at least at first, is probably foolish. In his (very) limited time in Milwaukee, Nottingham compiled just 24 plate appearances and looked a tad over-matched at times, striking out on eight occasions. He also drew four walks, to his credit, and the sample size is far too small to be seriously examined. Most excitingly, Nottingham can seriously hurt a baseball when he finds one in his sweet spot, to the tune of 450+ feet. He’s made tremendous strides with the glove over the last few years, transforming himself into something approaching an average defensive catcher. Couple that with league-average-or-better offense at the position, and he still has the ability to produce sneaky value for the Brewers over the next six seasons. (Catchers in 2018 batted .232/.304/.372, so Nottingham doesn’t have to turn into Pudge Rodriguez to give the Brewers a boost.) I’m hoping he piles up a couple hundred big league plate appearances next season.

Jett Bandy; 216 PA, .292/.353/.510 in Triple-A
Bandy broke camp with the Brewers, but failed to impress. He hit .188/.268/.266 with shaky defense in 24 games before being removed from the roster and passed over on waivers. The 28-year-old came alive in Triple-A, but he’s reaching do-or-die status as a major league contributor. He’ll have to contend with at least two of the above names on the depth chart, and will likely struggle to find big league playing time should he remain in the Brewers organization. Still, he’s youngish enough and talented enough that he has a chance to shed his current quad-A label and become a solid backup with some pop.

Prospects and Depth

Christian Bethancourt; 418 PA, .297/.328/.506 in Triple-A
Brought in on a minor league pact, Bethancourt played very well in his return from the pitcher’s mound. He has soft hands behind the dish, and a good arm. He also hit a bit in Colorado Springs, with 20 home runs and a nifty .271 TAv. One knock on his offense: He gave away plenty of walks as a pitcher, but largely refuses them as a hitter.

Bethancourt was brought into the organization on a minor league pact. There will be plenty of plate appearances available for catchers in AAA next year, but it’s no guarantee that Bethancourt will be making the move to San Antonio along with the rest of the organization’s most advanced minor leaguers. Plenty of rebuilding clubs may take a roll of the dice on the former top prospect.

Dustin Houle and Max McDowell, Advanced A & Double-A
These two are the same age, and at about the same stage developmentally. Houle was drafted out of high school way back in 2011; McDowell followed from college in 2015.

Houle is a big-bodied catcher without a true carrying tool. He’s got a decent arm and is fairly strong, but the lack of a hit tool cramps his game power. He’s a nice organizational depth piece, but something very strange will have happened if he sees major league time in 2019.

McDowell has a bit more upside, with a strong throwing arm, decent athleticism, solid glove, and some untapped raw power. He flashed a nice bat in Wisconsin in 2016, but his hit tool hasn’t progressed much as he’s moved up the ladder. He’s got a chance to turn into a light-hitting backup at the highest level.

Mario Feliciano; 165 PA, .205/.282/.329 in Advanced A
2018 was basically a lost season for the 19-year-old, who battled back from an arm injury to play in 42 games for the Carolina Mudcats. He started slow in June, showed signs of life in July, then cratered in August. It was a disappointing year for a player who impressed in 2017 as one of the youngest prospects in the Midwest League. Ultimately, though, I see little reason to dampen long-term expectations. Catching at Class-Advanced A is an almost laughable challenge for a 19-year-old. He should return for another round in 2019, and I expect him to play pretty well. Keep in mind that the Carolina League is hard on hitters, so his stat line may not be all that impressive. The fact that he’ll be there at all, though, at 20 years old? Impressive. The defense could use some work, and he has plenty of time for that. Meanwhile, he could develop into a .270 hitter with a line-drive approach and average power.

Feliciano is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League to make up for some of his lost time this year. It’s not working, though: He’s only worked his way into two games, with one single in four at bats.

Payton Henry; 389 PA, .234/.327/.380 in Advanced A
Henry had a rough April and a tremendous May, followed by an acceptable June and July and a ghastly August and September. He’s a bat-first prospect with plus raw power, but he struck out in about 32 percent of his plate appearances. He needs to work on his receiving and his arm if he wants to stay behind the plate; he becomes a much less exciting prospect if he moves to first base or an outfield corner.

Worth Noting
Finally, backstops David Fry and Robie Rojas are due a mention here. Fry hit .315/.406/.563 while playing catcher, first base, and third base for the rookie league Helena Brewers. He drew 29 walks and struck out just 42 times in 261 plate appearances. Rojas, a 38th-round pick in 2017, spent plenty of time on the 7-day Disabled List and was relegated to the minor league taxi squad. He managed just 66 plate appearances on the year, including 13 at Triple-A, and hit surprisingly well in a (very small) 13-game sample in Carolina. All together, he had a line of .304/.409/.393.

Fry’s rookie league stats, while nice, are by and large worthless, and I have no idea what to make of Rojas at this point. But I’ll be curious to see what the organization does with both of these prospects in 2019.

AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox
Who to Watch: The pitchers. Good news for those who distrust the Brewers’ current starting rotation: Help is on the way! The bad news is that said help is pitching at elevation, in conditions which have caused more than one pitcher to lose their feel for a breaking ball. Still, the fact that the organization has top prospects Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta awaiting a call in Colorado is in itself exciting. After coaxing Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader through limited reps at Colorado Springs last season, there’s a template in place that could have Burnes and Peralta each recording big league outs as soon as the middle of the year. Both have potential to flourish as mid-rotation starters, with Burnes possessing both a higher ceiling and floor. But Peralta is no slouch; he should at least have impact potential as a reliever, and could wind up as a bullpen ace if the starting rotation isn’t his long-term home.

Perhaps the most exciting thing about the Sky Sox pitching staff is its depth. Burnes and Peralta are the top two names, but Junior Guerra and Wade Miley will make big league starts this year, and Brandon Woodruff is due back in Milwaukee any minute. Meanwhile, Jorge López is back in Colorado Springs to exorcise some personal demons two years after a disastrous turn for the Sky Sox tanked his prospect stock. Even if his path to the big leagues now lies through the bullpen, there’s plenty of reason to believe in his arm. If the big league staff stumbles, the call-ups could come in thick and fast.

Honorable Mention: Jacob Nottingham has quietly improved behind the plate to the point that he should be able to handle a big league staff. Take a peek behind his uninspiring slash line for Biloxi last year (.209/.326/.369), and you’ll see that he was actually a hair above league average with the stick last year by advanced metrics like TAv and wRC+. If he can continue to produce at that offensive rate (he’s off to a good start through his first few games), there’s plenty of reason to think that he’ll at least be able to hold down a job as a big league backup as early as next year.

AA Biloxi Shuckers
Who to Watch: The outfield. Corey Ray and Trent Grisham are the most familiar names here, but Troy Stokes, Jr. turned the most heads last year, reaching AA for the first time and posting a strong .279 TAv through 153 plate appearances. Stokes is a 5’8” right-handed hitter with good speed and some surprising pop. He’ll need to work on his barrel control and cut back on popups to take the next step.

The extraordinarily patient Grisham will watch his share of pitches sale by (his 98 walks were second in the minors last year), but when he does swing he uses his whole body to whip the bat through the plate at incredible speed. The hit tool needs to progress, but he’s got an elite eye and heaps of potential.

Meanwhile, Corey Ray struck out ten times in his first twenty at-bats, but still flashes the tools that made him a fifth-overall draft pick in 2016.

Honorable Mention: Kodi Medeiros is probably headed for a relief role in the majors, but the Brewers will keep developing him as a starter as long as they can. His funky delivery and low arm slot are hell on same-sided batters, albeit less so for those with the platoon advantage. Medeiros still has that wipeout slider that turned heads in high school, and he’s finally learning how to locate it. With a little more consistency, he could shoot up the fast track and into the big league ‘pen.

A+ Carolina Mudcats
Who to Watch: Keston Hiura, obviously. He’s off to a slow start (1-15, 5 Ks in 16 plate appearances) but there’s little doubt that he’s going to hit…and hit and hit. Unless his elbow implodes and necessitates surgery, Hiura stands a strong chance to taste Biloxi by mid-summer. Most don’t expect him in the majors until late 2019 at the earliest, but blue-chip prospects have a knack for setting their own timelines as they climb the organizational rungs.

Honorable Mention: Left-handed hurler Nathan Kirby, whose elbow actually did implode a few years back, is healthy for the first time since 2015. Back in college, he wowed scouts with a nifty fastball and two strong secondary pitches. Now 24 years old, he’s rebuilding his arm strength in Carolina and making up for lost time. If it all clicks and Kirby stays healthy, he could vault himself back to top-prospect status in a hurry.

A- Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Who to Watch: Tristen Lutz is going to hit a lot of home runs. The Brewers grabbed Lutz with the 34th overall pick last summer, and word is that they were considering him at number nine, too. He’s a Texan, just out of high school, and he tore through the rookie leagues last summer. The folks at FanGraphs tabbed Lutz as the #68 overall prospect entering the season thanks to his light-tower raw power and elite exit velocities. He could be a Corey Hart-type force in the heart of the lineup, with plenty of arm for right field.

Honorable Mention: Catchers KJ Harrison (third rounder in 2017) and Payton Henry (sixth rounder in 2016) are variations on the same theme. Both are good-hitting catchers with pop. They’re also both very raw receivers, and it’s conceivable that both could get pushed out from behind the dish to first base or possibly left field, where they’d need the bats to play in order to retain much value. But if even one of them makes some defensive strides without slipping on offense, the crop of young catchers on the farm will start to look very appealing.

Baseball Prospectus:
Why PECOTA Hates Your Favorite Team
13 Noteworthy Projections

Since PECOTA is a probabilistic model, which means that it is designed to reflect the most probable outcome in a distribution of projected outcomes, Brewers fans should keep in mind that “84” is not some special or magic number. As demonstrated last season, a club that was expected (at best) to flirt with .500 surged ahead and competed for the playoffs, but that surge was not even greater than one standard deviation away from the projected win total. These Brewers could indeed use their strengths to once again push the club ahead of schedule by contending for a playoff spot or winning the division in 2018, or they could indeed sputter in development patterns or role depreciation and return closer to .500. What PECOTA reflects is that the Brewers’ big offseason moves (trading for Christian Yelich, signing Lorenzo Cain) did not guarantee them a playoff spot or even playoff contention, but instead, “more probable” competition or “more probable” playoff contention.

So, what’s going to make the Brewers “tick” in 2018? Here are my favorite picks from 2018 Brewers PECOTA:

PECOTA “punts” the Yelich Trade
Standing behind the curtain during some of the PECOTA work throughout the offseason, it was very interesting to see that the trade involving Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Jordan Yamamoto for Christian Yelich….did not really “move the needle” on the Brewers’ 2018 expected win total. This is surprising given the court of public opinion, but there are two specific reasons that the trade does not immediately yield an absurd advantage for the 2018 Brewers: (1) Lewis Brinson’s high floor is real, and (2) Christian Yelich could experience some role depreciation. It’s always so easy to look at the best possible outcomes or potentialities in each trade; Brinson the future superstar, Yelich the 5.0 WARP player, but it’s also worth emphasizing Brinson’s risk in reaching his peak role and Yelich’s fluctuation between varying degrees of serviceable-to-great production.

Don’t get me wrong: Christian Yelich is a very good baseball player, and his contract makes him worth every potential prospect future that the Brewers surrendered. PECOTA thinks so, too, projecting Yelich primarily as a Brewers left fielder working a .279 TAv and serviceable fielding at a corner position. That’s good for 2.7 WARP, second only to Lorenzo Cain (3.5 WARP). But, remember that floor for Brinson? Even if the center fielder fails to reach his fullest and best hit tool (and therefore, fullest and best power) in the MLB, he’s still a speedy, strong defense, strong arm player in the center of the diamond. PECOTA projects Brinson at .262 TAv and an overall plus on defense for the Marlins, which is good for a club leading 2.5 WARP. This is great for both teams: the Brewers land a quality outfielder under control for five years who has already shown his developed peak abilities at the MLB level (while rounding out the club with a left-handed bat and better plate discipline), while Marlins fans immediately landed the face of their rebuild, the best player on their team, and (at best) someone who neutralizes the toxic offseason orchestrations of Project Wolverine.

Zach Davies and Orlando Arcia Remain Quietly Competitive
As mentioned, the Brewers contended in 2017 due to the “high floor” strengths of their youngsters: players like Orlando Arcia and Zach Davies were not set up to be immediate superstars, but still maintained quality, consistent MLB seasons that propelled the team along “behind the scenes.” PECOTA projects the same for 2018, although this time Zach Davies is leading the pitching staff with a solid 4.43 DRA over 170+ innings, good for a 1.6 WARP. Arcia sits behind Cain and Yelich in terms of overall WARP, but the young shortstop is projected to continue onward with excellent defense and a serviceable bat at shortstop. One could look at these players’ projections and emphasize that PECOTA sees them declining from their absolute 2017 WARP, but I don’t think the WARP is the point here. Instead, what matters is that this duo is still viewed as a quality backbone of the club, even with some attrition, which will undoubtedly serve crucial roles for grinding through 162.

The Outfield Depth is a Problem
Projecting the Brewers’ outfield depth was a nightmare. I previously wrote about how a rotational system can make five outfield spots work for Yelich, Cain, Santana, Ryan Braun, and Brett Phillips, but it’s much more difficult to put those ideals into the mixer and dissect the potential probabilities. Probability #1, which PECOTA currently projects sans Santana trade, is that Ryan Braun plays right field, but only some first base and left field, and therefore loses all of his defensive value. Both Braun and Santana suffer in this universe, creating a total of 1.9 WARP (but 75 extra base hits!) and TAv below .280. Comparable players for Domingo Santana are Oswaldo Arcia, Jonny Gomes, and Joc Pederson, and his plate discipline regresses (98 strike outs and 36 walks in 315 plate appearances). Granted, I do think there is still a path of optimism about the current roster depth (perhaps Braun works 1B more frequently, and Santana receives more regular playing time across the outfield, interleague designated hitter, and pinch hitting roles), but I do not think that means PECOTA is categorically mistaken for the pessimistic trends for Braun or Santana. After all, the current roster mash up is designed in a way to particularly showcase flaws for both Braun and Santana, which does not mean they’re bad baseball players (in fact, their TAv are projected to contend for best overall offensive production on the club), they simply may be imperfect ballplayers for this current roster.

Chase Anderson is Chase Anderson
There are many good stories about the 2017 Brewers, but it’s tough to find one that’s better than Anderson’s arrival as an impact starting pitcher. Anderson resonated with Brewers fans not simply because he was a previous low-to-mid rotation depth option who arrived as one of the very best pitchers in the National League, but because he also vindicated the mechanical, analytical, and strategic approach of pitching coach Derek Johnson. In 2018, PECOTA projects some of 2016 Anderson to return, particularly in the shape of walks, hits, and home runs, without phenomenal gains in strike outs or ground balls. Underlying modeling views Anderson as one of the most likely pitchers on the Brewers to “collapse” in 2018, and less likely to “improve,” and it’s not hard to squint and see a scenario in which a comparable of Dustin McGowan is suitable for the righty’s age-30 campaign. Even with all of this noted, Anderson’s DRA is projected at 4.59 for the year, which should be a better than average performance if the offensive environment holds steady. There is value in that performance over 168.0 innings pitched, and this type of season still validates the contract extension that Anderson signed.

The Bullpen is Fantastic
As a group, the primary Brewers bullpen as currently constructed looks fantastic. Josh Hader and Corey Knebel are projected as the most likely relievers to improve in 2018, but Jeremy Jeffress, Boone Logan, and Matt Albers also receive relatively strong scores in the category. The current main group is projected to produce a DRA below 4.30, which should demonstrate the potential for average or better production in most offensive environments that the arms face in 2018. Some red flags float beneath the surface, however, as the walk rates are slightly worse than average for the relief group, and outside of Adrian Houser, Jeffress, Albers, and Jacob Barnes the group is projected to have relatively low ground ball rates. Yet, even outside of Knebel and Hader the relievers are projected as a strong strike out group, suggesting that some of the slider-heavy moves of the offseason should pay dividends in high leverage situations.

Prospects Begin Appearing on the Scene
One of my favorite aspects of digging into PECOTA projections is the appearance of new faces to the MLB. Caden Lemons, Keston Hiura, KJ Harrison, and Tristen Lutz are all listed as highly improbable MLB players by PECOTA, but their appearance on the radar after the 2017 draft means that the system is now generating comparable players for this group. Jacob Nottingham was added to the 40-Man Roster at the beginning of the 2017-2018 offseason, and one of the comparable names that popped up in his player line is Jonathan Lucroy, which is fascinating for many reasons (not the least of which is Lucroy’s general reputation as a defense-first catcher for the beginning of his career, and Nottinghma’s floor as a back-up catcher with pop). Mauricio Dubon appears as one of the more probable MLB prospects for the club, and his line is a very serviceable utility infielder (.250 batting average, .380 slugging percentage).

Brewers fans might be most excited to see Corbin Burnes at the bottom of the club’s starting pitcher list with three starts, as the pop-up righty prospect is given relatively favorable odds to reach the MLB and a set of comparable players that effectively grade out his reliever risk, reliever potential, and (most excitingly) his starting pitching potential. Additionally, Adrian Houser is given lower odds of reaching the MLB in 2018, but seeing the power sinker reliever in the mix leads to an exciting scenario where the entire Carlos Gomez / Mike Fiers trade return is potentially playing with the Brewers during the same season.

It’s a good reminder that even though common perception is that the Brewers system took a big hit with the Christian Yelich trade, there is still an intriguing group of prospects potentially knocking at the door for 2018. Add an asterisk to this potential 83-win season, as one that exhibits contending-ready talent and depth roles that are still developing for more future success.

Photo Credit: Ken Blaze, USAToday Sports Images

Edit: Updated at 7:15 AM to reflect updated win total, from 84 to 83.

It’s harder, perhaps, to know when pivot back to competitive ball at the highest level. But after a surprising run atop the standings in 2017 and a pair of bold offseason moves, the Brewers are ready to make that turn. Prospect hounds, take heart: Even after Milwaukee exchanged a number of potential stars for current-star Christian Yelich, plenty of exciting future major leaguers remain on every rung of the organizational ladder. Now that some of the cream of the system has been ladled into Miami’s cup, it’s time to become (re)acquainted with a few of the promising minor leaguers who’ve been buried behind teammates with louder tools or higher rankings.

Take 22-year-old catcher Jacob Nottingham, who’s still on track for a major league career despite posting mediocre offensive numbers in back-to-back seasons at AA Biloxi. At first glance, it’s easy to give short shrift to Nottingham’s development. He came into the Brewers organization following a powerful 2015 split between the Houston and Oakland systems, then proceeded to post a .234/.295/.347 batting line through his first turn as a Brewer at AA. He was tabbed as a bounce-back candidate entering the 2017 campaign, but quickly fell off the radar en route to an underwhelming .209/.326/.369 slash line. Numbers aren’t everything, though, and these in particular mask some tremendous developmental strides. Nottingham isn’t a sleeping giant, exactly, but he remains a quality prospect with as good a chance to crack a future big league roster as any in the still-strong Milwaukee system.

Quality catchers are scarce throughout the minor leagues and a number of the top talents come with question marks surrounding their ability to stick behind the dish. Nottingham once faced those questions, too, but he’s put in significant time answering them in recent seasons. In a rough 2016, he gunned down just 29 percent of prospective thieves on the base paths and allowed a staggering 21 passed balls in 831.3 innings. In 2017, those numbers jumped to 40 percent and fell to 9, respectively, across 708.7 innings. He committed nine errors, down from 15 the previous year. Finally, he posted a solid 7.1 framing runs across 6,194 chances en route to 5.5 Fielding Runs Above Average. (As a point of contrast, the vaunted Yadier Molina managed 5 framing runs in 8,380 chances for 4.7 FRAA last year in St. Louis.)

Then there’s the bat, recent author of that paltry .209 batting average. Beneath that number, there are signs for optimism. To start, Nottingham possesses 60 raw power; along with his arm, raw power is his best tool. He’s sometimes struggled to access that power in game situations, but that started to change in 2017, when his Isolated Slugging Percentage climbed from .113 and .160 thanks in part to a spike in fly balls. Nottingham recorded 32 extra base hits alongside 36 singles, a much better percentage than the 25 extra base hits he paired with 72 singles in 2016.

As a penalty for the extra airballs, Nottingham’s .255 BABIP was easily a career low. His uppercut swing is a thing of beauty when he gets a ball in a good spot, but he’s not deft enough with the stick to maneuver it throughout the zone and make consistent contact—particularly on breaking balls low and away. Still, he improved on that front in 2017, cutting his strikeout percentage from 30.3 down to 22.6. At the same time, he grew more selective on offerings outside of the strike zone and posted his best walk percentage (9.6) since rookie league ball with the Astros. The combination of patience and power was enough for a 103 wRC+ and a .263 TAv, both above average. Bust him out of Biloxi and into the inflated run-scoring environment of Colorado Springs, and Nottingham could claim his share of attention in the Pacific League.

Of course, there’s still work to be done. Despite his strides in blocking, Nottingham remains an imperfect receiver behind the plate. He’s done enough to quiet concerns about his defensive home, but can’t afford to let his foot off the gas. Offensively, his swing still carries extra length. To make an impact at the next level, Nottingham will have to shorten his stroke, better control the barrel, and perhaps dial down his fondness for the fly ball revolution (last year’s 48.9 flyball percentage is in extreme territory). But he’s still young: next year will be Nottingham’s age-23 season, and catchers in particular can be slow to develop. Nottingham is a competitive player who’s made adjustments before. Give him another year in the minors, maybe a year and a half, and he could be ready to give the Brewers Stephen Vogt’s production, only with better defense. That profile is a big league backup at the very least. The Brewers were sufficiently encouraged by his 2017 season to add him to the 40-man roster this winter; for what it’s worth, they also sent him to MLB’s Rookie Career Development Program. The organization sees a big league future in their young backstop, and Jacob Nottingham deserves a spot on your radar heading into 2018.

AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox (80-57)

MVP: OF Brett Phillips

After a down year in AA last season, Phillips re-established himself as a promising outfield prospect this season with the Sky Sox. He finished fourth on the team in plate appearances despite a few stints in the big leagues, lead the club in home runs, and was second in RBI. He struck out more than one would like to see (29.9 percent) but posted a solid 10.4 percent walk rate and Phillips seems to have truly settled in as an above-average defender in center field.

432 PA || .305/.377/.567 || 19 HR || 9 SB || .295 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Taylor Jungmann

Not too long ago, it looked like Jungmann might become a fixture in Milwaukee’s rotation. He was awful last season in the majors and minors, but bounced back with a terrific performance in Colorado Springs in 2017. Jungmann spent some time with both the big league club and the AA Shuckers, but made 17 appearances and tossed 90.3 innings for the Sky Sox this season. In that time he posted a 2.59 ERA, the lowest earned run average a Sky Sox pitcher has authored in that many innings this century. A DRA- of 78 agrees that Jungmann was much better than the league-average pitcher, but that still wasn’t enough to merit a September call-up, casting some doubt on Taylor’s future with the organization.

90.3 IP || 2.59 ERA || 4.04 DRA || 82 K || 39 BB || 4 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 48% GB

AA Biloxi Shuckers (71-66)

MVP: C Jacob Nottingham

Biloxi is a tough venue for hitters, evidenced by the fact that only two Shuckers received more than 300 plate appearances and posted above a .700 OPS. Jacob Nottingham was not one of those players, compiling a .695 OPS with 9 homers and 48 RBI across 101 games. That was still good enough for a slightly above-average TAv, but most important for Nottingham’s value this season were the steps forward he took behind the plate. He graded out with +7.1 framing runs, caught 40% of would-be base thieves, and sliced his passed balls by more than 50% from last season. It’s looking more and more like Nottingham will be able to stay behind the plate, now the bat just has to start coming along a little bit more.

385 PA || .209/.326/.369 || 9 HR || 7 SB || .263 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Aaron Wilkerson

When you’re a 28 year old minor league veteran, it can get tough to convince and organization that you still deserve a shot at the big leagues. Aaron Wilkerson was able to do just that with an outstanding showing for the Shuckers this year. He started 24 games and tossed 142.3 innings, both tops on the club. He struck out more than a batter per inning while demonstrating his signature control, ultimately earning his first call-up to the MLB this September. Now that Wilkerson has broken through on to the 40 man and into The Show, he could compete for a starting rotation slot or spot in the bullpen as a swingman next spring.

142.3 IP || 3.16 ERA || 2.32 DRA || 143 K || 36 BB || 12 HR || 1.07 WHIP || 37% GB

High-A Carolina Mudcats (73-65)

MVP: OF Troy Stokes

In an organization crowded with outfield talent, Stokes finally managed to stay healthy and stand out this season. The 2014 4th-rounder played in 100 games for Carolina and lead the team in OPS, was 2nd in home runs and runs batted in, and fourth in stolen bases. A diminutive specimen, Stokes has demonstrated plus speed to go along with above-average power, and finished out the season with a strong 35 game run in AA Biloxi. He’s certainly put himself on the front office’s radar with his performance in 2017.

426 PA || .250/.344/.445 || 14 HR || 21 SB || .279 TAv

Related Reading:
Stoked for Carolina

Pitcher: RHP Jordan Yamamoto

Corbin Burnes (who was the org’s minor league pitcher of the year) and Freddy Peralta both had excellent partial seasons with Carolina, but we’ll give the nod here to Yamamoto for spending all year with the Mudcats. The 21 year old Hawaiian captured the league’s ERA title after finishing with 14.0 consecutive shutout innings, struck out better than a batter per inning and didn’t allow many walks. He throws four pitches and generally locates well, and there’s a possibility that the former 12th round pick can be a back-end starter at the big league level.

111.0 IP || 2.51 ERA || 2.80 DRA || 113 K || 30 BB || 8 HR || 1.09 WHIP || 40% GB

A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (59-79)

MVP: OF Monte Harrison

Wisconsin was the worst offensive team in the Midwest League this season, so there’s not a whole lot of strong performers to choose from. We’ll give the nod to Monte Harrison, who only spent a half season with the T-Rats but was an offensive dynamo for Wisconsin before getting a mid-season promotion. Finally healthy, Harrison flashed the power/speed potential that made him such a tantalizing draft prospect back in 2014. He looked good in center field, too. It’s tough not to buy in when he’s praised a 2018 Breakout Candidate with tools that rival that of Lewis Brinson’s.

261 PA || .265/.359/.475 || 11 HR || 11 SB || .307 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Thomas Jankins

Within the organization only Corbin Burnes and Aaron Wilkerson tossed more innings than Jankins’ 141.7 for Wisconsin this season, and he certainly made them quality ones. A 13th-round pick in 2016, Jankins was considered a “projectable” pick by Baseball America due to his lack of exposure to high-end coaching. It seems he’s now thriving in Milwaukee’s ranks, utilizing a three-pitch mix to attack batters and generate ground balls. He has a starter’s build and repertoire and is certainly someone to keep an eye on going forward.

141.7 IP || 3.62 ERA || 2.53 DRA || 121 K || 32 BB || 14 HR || 1.22 WHIP || 55% GB

Related reading:
Meet Thomas Jankins

Rookie Helena Brewers (28-48)

MVP: 1B/3B/OF Gabriel Garcia

A 14th-round pick by the Brewers in the 2016 draft, Garcia has done nothing but hit since joining the professional ranks. The 19 year old lead the Brewers in plate appearances this season, had the most doubles, the third-most long balls, second-most RBI, and second-best OPS among batters with at least 200 PA. Drafted as a catcher, Garcia played mostly first base this year but also made over a dozen starts at third and a few appearances in the outfield. It will be interesting to see how well his offensive performances translate to full-season ball next year.

285 PA || 300/.420/.498 || 9 HR || 6 SB || .296 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Gabe Friese

Friese was an passed over in this summer’s draft and signed with Milwaukee as a free agent. After tossing 20.1 innings in Maryvale without allowing an earned run, Friese was bumped up to Helena to finish out the summer. In a league that is notoriously hitter-friendly, the results remained strong for Friese. In 33.0 innings for the Brewers, Friese yielded a 3.82 ERA and 4.24 DRA. For some context, that translates to a DRA- of 63, or 37 percent better than the average Pioneer League pitcher. As a 22 year old who was a bit old for the level, it’s tough to know what we should expect from Friese going forward. If his 0.8 BB/9 rate can continue, though, he’s likely to keep finding success as he climbs the minor league ladder.

33.0 IP || 3.82 ERA || 4.24 DRA || 26 K || 3 BB || 4 HR || 1.27 WHIP || 50% GB

Rookie Arizona Brewers (33-23)

MVP: 1B/OF Pat McInerney

Passed over after his senior season at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, McInerny signed with Milwaukee following the draft and was assigned to the AZL, where he was more than two years older than the average player. McInerney took advantage of the inferior competition. He finished second on the club with 230 PA, tied for the league lead in home runs, took the fourth-most walks, and had the league’s 8th-best OPS. He showed some versatility, too, playing both left and right field in addition to first base. He did strike out 65 times in 50 games, though. McInerney could be a guy that sticks around the org for awhile, but given his advanced age he’ll have to show an awful lot if he hopes to ever reach the big leagues.

230 PA || .243/.378/.487 || 9 HR || 8 SB || .288 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Joaquin De La Cruz

De La Cruz began the season in the Dominican Summer League, but after our starts got his first stateside promotion to Arizona. He wound up tossing the third-most innings on the club while posting the league’s fifth-lowest ERA and the eighth-best strikeout rate (minimum 40 IP). De La Cruz doesn’t throw especially hard, but does feature a splitter, which is the organization’s favorite pitch. He’s got a long ways to climb before reaching the big league level, but at the very least his statistics appear promising.

42.7 IP || 2.53 ERA || 3.10 DRA || 46 K || 20 BB || 0 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 56% GB

Related Reading:
Joaquin De La Cruz and Second Chances

Dominican Summer League (Brewers 28-43, Indians/Brewers 23-47)

MVP: 1B/3B Aaron Familia

18 year old Familia signed with Milwaukee last summer and completed his second season in the DSL in 2017. Only two players in the DSL hit more home runs than Familia this summer, and he had the 13th-best OPS among qualifiers. At 6’2″ and 170 lbs, Familia still has plenty of filling out to do and could add to his raw power potential. He could make the jump stateside next season, though hopefully his swing-and-miss tendencies (70 strikeouts) will improve as he climbs the minor league ladder.

237 PA || .289/.422/.455 || 5 HR || 3 SB || .318 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Freisis Adames

Adames got a bit of a late start to his career in comparison to others in the DSL, not signing until last year at 19. As such he was a bit old for the league this summer, and he was one of the top hurlers on the circuit. Adames worked the league’s fourth-most innings, finished second in strikeouts, and even tossed a complete game shutout. His ERA was about a half-run lower than league average, but a DRA- of 41 suggests that Adames’ performance was a whopping 59 percent better than the typical DSL arm in 2017. Hopefully he too will get the opportunity to make the jump stateside next season, where it will be easier for scouts to give us a clue about what sort of stuff Adames is working with.

74.7 IP || 3.13 ERA || 1.98 DRA || 80 K || 21 BB || 1 HR || 1.12 WHIP || 59% GB

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire, USAToday Sports Images

So where does one move from here?

Related Reading
Part 2: Familia / Feliciano / Ramirez
Part 1: Cooper / Gatewood / Hiura
Prospective 2018

Following the introductory words to the first installment of Midseason 3 Up 3 Down, one could conceive of the Brewers’ farm system as a system of tiers based on percentile and role. This is what is tough about ranking prospects: it is easy to be excited about many minor leaguers, but it is difficult to pin down specific role preferences for future value in a ranking. For example, catcher Mario Feliciano could easily take five years to reach his MLB debut, especially if he retains his defensive position behind the dish. But he could also be one of the most valuable future roles for the system, despite that length of development (potential starting catchers don’t grow on trees). Compare Feliciano to my favorite pitcher, Cody Ponce, or an intriguing utility/depth player like Ryan Cordell. Cordell has a much more certain path to the MLB (he’ll probably arrive within a year if he’s truly on the 40-man roster as an MLB asset) and a much clearer role (Cordell’s defensive flexibility and batting profile almost assure he’ll slide in to create another Hernan Perez). It’s incredibly fun to imagine a bench including Cordell, Perez, Jonathan Villar, and Mauricio Dubon, both due to positional flexibility and the ideal that each of these players could step in for an extended absence and probably hold their own. Ponce might be spinning wheels a bit in 2017, but he remains a quality pitching prospect for the Brewers with a relatively clear path to the MLB (there can never be enough quality pitching depth within a system).

While both Ponce and Cordell are closer to the MLB and have much clearer roles to boot, Feliciano is probably the better Overall Future Potential (OFP) pick for the system. This is just one such comparison, but comparisons like this could be made across the Milwaukee system.

Splitting the system into tiers, it’s crucial to note that a player without a potentially elite or better than average role is not necessarily a bad prospect, especially if they are ticketed for MLB as a depth option. The fact of the matter is, very few prospects will become 70 OFP star profiles (like Carlos Correa, for example), or 60 OFP first-division potential profiles (like Orlando Arcia). Here’s how that reality might look in the Brewers’ system:

Aside from focusing on potential MLB roles, there ought to be a set of classifications that recognizes prospects working in relatively clear organizational depth positions, and prospects that are clearly projection plays. Consider the 2017 MLB Draft, in which the Brewers made considerable gambles with their picks in order to secure long development plays. Caden Lemons is my favorite example of this, a 6’6″ pitcher with considerable room to grow into his frame and therefore become a future power pitcher projection; of course, there is a scenario in which Lemons does not make it to Advanced Affiliates, or suffers an injury through what will almost certainly be a five year development period. This adds risk to Lemons’s profile, and although his MLB ceiling is not yet known, one can recognize future potential in the projection gamble.

There are plenty of prospects excluded from this list, so it should not be taken as a ranking; Franly Mallen, Phil Bickford, Blake Lillis, Jose Sibrian, Joantgel Segovia, Quintin Torres-Costa, and Jordan Yamamoto are just some of the players I excluded from this list. By this point, we’re so far into the system that one can see how a ranking system loses it’s efficacy. Outside of front offices with proprietary modeling systems for scouting and statistical information, I’m not certain there is value in fans knowing who is the #24 prospect or who is the #38 prospect in the Brewers system.

For this installment, BPMilwaukee Editorial Staff (Nicholas Zettel and Kyle Lesniewski) were joined by Craig Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus Prospect Team).

3 UP (and one bonus!)
CF Monte Harrison, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein): Two freak injuries sidelined Monte Harrison in both 2015 and 2016, dampening the 60 OFP first division center fielder tag in the 2015 Baseball Prospectus Top Ten. Although the 2016 Baseball Prospectus list dropped Harrison to an excellent defensive right fielder role, the prospect’s injury issues have not kept the Brewers from giving him development time in center field. As Harrison advances through the system in center field, a more realistic potential MLB ceiling at that position should materialize. Now that Harrison is healthy, his transition from elite athlete to elite athlete as ballplayer is translating into highly regarded bat speed, leading to a hit tool that solves some of the puzzles that materialized even in his first Top Ten Brewers list. Perhaps the best part is (besides Harrison remaining healthy thus far and having a chance to truly form his ballgame) that even though it feels like Harrison has been around forever, he’s still only in his age-21 season and is younger than 80 percent of the 2017 Carolina League.

Goldstein on Harrison: Long on tools and short on [development] time, Harrison’s mostly healthy season has finally yielded bountiful results.

RHP Corbin Burnes, AA Biloxi (picked by Craig Goldstein): Corbin Burnes exemplifies the split between how fans follow the minor leagues and how scouts follow the minor leagues. The righty has posted phenomenal statistics since the Brewers selected him in the 4th round of the 2016 draft. Reports throughout the breakout 2017 campaign for Burnes have underscored the fastball and slider combination for the 6’3″ righty, while also raising questions about additional off-speed offerings (which would round out a starter’s profile) and delivery (which some suggest may be too high effort to repeat as a starter). Yet, here we are, with Burnes giving Brewers box score hawks fireworks every fifth day, which is unfortunately turning the righty into perhaps the system’s biggest hype case. I say unfortunately because it is clear that Burnes has an MLB ceiling, and it is clear that he needs work to get there (for example, Burnes might reach 150 innings in 2017, which means that the righty may need another year of seasoning in order to build up that true mid rotation workload). Burnes may be one of the best arguments in favor of turning prospect coverage fully away from statistics and toward scouting grades and reports, as there is a good chance those Brewers box score hawks hyping up “could Burnes be the next ace?” will be the first to turn on him should he reach the MLB at his realistic ceiling. None of this should take away from the righty, and obviously actual MLB runs prevention performances from year to year feature strong performances from non-aces (see Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson in 2017, and Zach Davies and Junior Guerra in 2016, as just two sets of examples). In this sense, even scouting roles and actual MLB performances diverge. A better line would be that “aces don’t exist,” and allow Burnes the developmental space necessary to turn him into the valuable MLB pitcher that he can be for the Brewers.

Goldstein on Burnes: I’m not convinced he’s not a reliever in the end, but the fastball/slider combo is legit. Waiting on that third pitch.

C Jacob Nottingham, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Nottingham, the centerpiece of the trade that sent Khrush Davis to the Athletics, was one of the more disappointing prospects in the system last season, and an ice cold start to 2017 only further dampened his stock. But the 22 year old appears to have finally started to put things together over the last several weeks. He’s hitting .352/.426/.593 over his last four week’s worth of games, bringing his season-long slash line to .253/.349/.407 with three home runs, which translates to a nifty .279 TAv in the pitcher-friendly Southern League. Nottingham’s bat was supposed to be what carried him to the big leagues, but his defense has been much improved since joining the org as well. A 43 percent caught stealing rate, +3.3 framing runs, and decent blocking numbers (along with a huge reduction in passed balls) should help quell some of the “can he stick at catcher?” concerns.

RHP Carlos Herrera, Rookie Helena (picked by Nicholas Zettel): When the Brewers traded Adam Lind to the Mariners, David Stearns orchestrated a nifty return that amounted to a complete gamble in his new front office’s abilities to develop low minors arms into players that could reach their MLB ceilings (or simply reach the MLB for that matter) and a tiered acquisition approach that ensured each level of the minors would be populated with projection arms. Now, the fruits of that trade suggest Freddy Peralta is the best asset, having recently been promoted to Class-AA Biloxi in his age-21 season. But, Carlos Herrera was perhaps the most projection-worthy starter on the day of that Lind deal, and it is arguable that that fact has not changed even as Peralta climbs through the minors. Herrera is notably taller than Peralta, which adds intrigue to early reports of velocity and ability to spin breaking pitches. One would almost expect that should the righty continue to ascend into a true starting rotation ceiling, he will not resemble the 6’2″, 150 lb., low-90s arm that made it over to Milwaukee on trade day. Of course it’s a long way from “6’2″ with low-90s fastball and spin” to “filled out starter’s frame with a fastball that reaches or sits in the mid-90s and an average or better off-speed offering,” but there are little checkpoints along the way (like a commanding 20 K / 3 BB / 3 HR in his first 16 innings in Helena).

3 DOWN
LHP Nathan Kirby, Injury Rehabilitation (picked by Nicholas Zettel): This should not be viewed as piling on to the lefty, who has experienced tough luck since Milwaukee selected him as a supplemental first round pick in 2015. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Kirby had an additional elbow procedure completed in 2017, which shortens his potential workload to the end of August (maybe) and developmental ball (also maybe). When drafted, Kirby was viewed as a two-headed beast, one that could potentially flash three above average pitches or serve as a polished, high floor rotational depth guy, or one that could have his ceiling derailed by command and delivery issues. Now, neither of those aspects of the gamble seem pertinent as the Brewers face another long injury rehabilitation in their pitching ranks (see most notably, Taylor Williams, Devin Williams, Daniel Missaki, and Adrian Houser). This was a system where, after 2016, one might have said with confidence that the lower tier pitching ceilings and projection plays were more impactful than the batting profiles, but it’s tough to double down on that statement given the injured impact profiles. If Kirby must wait until 2018 to gain innings once again, the southpaw will be in his age-24 season with 12.7 professional innings under his belt. It is difficult to see a starting profile emerging from this developmental pattern, but injured southpaws have proven to be ageless in the past, meaning it’s time to brush up on bios and profiles like Al Leiter (who like Kirby was listed as a 6’2″, 200 lb. lefty).

OF Trent Clark, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein): In this iteration of the development cycle, the good becomes the problematic: that strong hit tool that earned rave reviews for Ray Montgomery’s first draft, clearly signalling a shift away from the gambles of the 2014 draft, that strong hit tool that was profiled as leading the way for a center field prospect, is now facing more scouting scrutiny in the prospect’s second  year in full-season ball. It is worth noting that behind Gilbert Lara, Clark is facing the harshest aging curve among regular minor league players in Milwaukee’s system. In the worst case scenario, perhaps Clark repeats at Advanced A Carolina to begin 2018, which could have the benefit of smoothing that curve, giving Clark more chances to sharpen that hit tool, and find separation with the system’s other highly regarded outfielders (which could have the benefit of allowing Clark to solidify that center field role rather than that ‘tweener OFP). Establishing something of a Brinson / Keon Broxton (MLB) | Phillips / Reed (AAA) | Harrison / Ray (AA) | Clark (A+) center field pipeline would provide quite an organizational structure in the middle of the diamond.

Goldstein on Clark: He looked lost at the plate in my viewing, and has been playing LF when Ray is healthy and playing, which puts even more pressure on a bat that was going to be average-dependent in the first place.

RHP Jorge Lopez, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): It wasn’t too long ago that Lopez was considered to be the top pitching prospect that Milwaukee had, winning the org’s minor league pitcher of the year after posting a 2.26 ERA in the Southern League in 2015. Last year in Colorado Springs was a disaster, though, and Lopez was returned to AA to begin the 2017 season. His 5.04 ERA in 69.2 innings appears rather underwhelming, though both FIP (3.41) and DRA (4.29) were a bit more bullish on Lopez’s work with the Shuckers this year. An improved K/BB rate after lowering his arm slot apparently wasn’t enough to convince Brewers’ brass he could stick in the rotation. From farm director Tom Flanagan on Jorge’s recent role change, via Adam McCalvy’s most recent mailbag.”The starting rotation at Biloxi is filled with some pitchers that have really thrown well, and Jorge hasn’t been able to show the consistency that we wanted to see in that role….Jorge has all the weapons to become a successful Major League starting pitcher, and we are not closing any doors on that. But by moving Jorge to the ‘pen, and getting him on the mound more often, we feel it will be helpful step in his development.” Lopez was just recently recalled to and demoted from the big leagues, and his profile suggests that he should have the chance to become an impact reliever. Still, that result would be a far cry from the “future #2 or #3 starter” labels that were being slapped on Lopez after his outstanding season two years ago.

For example, on May 12, I featured the fate of catching prospect Jacob Nottingham, who faced a brutal opposing OPS of .639 in the Southern League in his age-22 season (two years younger than the median age of the league); Nottingham’s extra base profile and walks looked solid behind his poor overall stats line, and since then the catcher continues to hit. Opposing pitcher quality has eased against Nottingham, but it is worth emphasizing that the catcher continues to face a tough Southern League. His .737 OPS is stronger than the opposing .666 mark allowed by his pitching competition, and his ascent from a .581 OPS on May 12 to his current mark does not simply match the extent to which pitching quality has eased in his version of the Southern League. The catcher is batting .318 / .414 / .494 since May 12, slugging 11 extra base hits (2 homers) and posting 15 K / 10 BB in 99 PA. By Total Average (TAv), Nottingham is the third best age-22 regular in the Southern League:

To underscore this feat by Nottingham, and to emphasize the importance of context, the Brewers prospect is young even for the Minor Leagues. Among 123 regulars in the Southern League, only 15 are playing in their age-22 season. Age-22 is quite young for Class-AA professional ball. Fellow Brewers prospects Mauricio Dubon, Javier Betancourt (remember him? He’s performing just as well as the recently promoted Dubon!), and Nottingham share the toughest environment of any of these players. Despite this, Nottingham is the third best age-22 bat in the Southern League (despite facing tough competition). Without context, someone might glance at a .249 Batting Average (AVG) / .350 On-Base Percentage (OBP) / .387 Slugging Percentage (SLG) and scoff at the idea that Nottingham could serve as one of the impact prospects in the Brewers system. In fact, the age-22 Southern League is batting approximately .251 / .306 / .372, which makes Nottingham’s line a standout performance.

This type of exercise could (and should) be repeated across each age group for each minor league level.

With this example in mind, here are how the Brewers regular minor league bats fare in terms of competition at each level.

Next, the regular minor league arms:

Compared to earlier surveys of the minor league context in 2017, it appears that several of the Brewers affiliated environments are becoming more moderate. This is reflected in a survey of the Baseball Prospectus Top Ten, where four of the Brewers’ most valuable prospects have found their environment to improve as the year progresses:

Related Reading:
Scalp / Spread Strategies
Bandy-Maldonado

Here, following the offseason treatment, I am including major deals from July 2015 (the arguable start of “Rebuilding”) through the present day, meaning that these moves are not entirely Stearns’s trades. Indeed, the Zach Davies / Gerardo Parra trade and the Carlos Gomez & Mike Fiers return remain two reasons that the Brewers did not need to “tank” and design a “scorched earth” rebuild that completely reconstructed the organization. Coupled with draft signings by the late Bruce Seid (such as Jacob Barnes and [soon] Brandon Woodruff), as well as graduated top prospects like Orlando Arcia, and superstar Ryan Braun, the “rebuilding” Brewers have remained competitive due to several different talent streams entering, remaining, and graduating through the system.

Trade Surplus Depreciated WARP & OFP Summary:

As a reminder, I will be following the historical model of Overall Future Potential (OFP) production drawn from the history of MLB performances. Scaled for prospect risk, here’s how those prospect levels can be valuated, with 50 OFP being an “average” MLB player:

Last check-in, here’s how the Brewers’ trades looked. Given Zach Davies’s quick ascent to the MLB, I forgot to add him in this list, so his trade will be featured below.

Following this set of deals, it should be interesting to note that while the Brewers system prospects have had ups and downs, the players traded away have exhibited true depreciation within one year. This should demonstrate one benefit of using a depreciation model to assess future player value, which is the model I have been working with throughout the offseason; players do depreciate in terms of production. Jonathan Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Adam Lind, and Jason Rogers all demonstrate this, and it should be noted they demonstrate this without completely crashing their value in the meantime (especially in the case of Lucroy). Khris Davis is perhaps the worst counterexample, as Stearns almost certainly sold low on the slugger, who also deserves credit for making adjustments and shifting his approach in Oakland.

A few quick notes:

• The Lucroy-Jeffress and Gomez-Fiers deals shifted value for completely different reasons. The former relies fully (thus far) on problematic performances by the players the Brewers traded away, while the latter is improving in value both due to struggles by Gomez and Fiers and improvements by Domingo Santana. The Gomez-Fiers deal remains one of the strongest deals to build the Brewers system, even with Josh Hader’s recent struggles, and Brett Phillips’s graduation solidifies at least the 45 OFP grade (which is not nothing), while the ceiling remains to be seen.

• Hidden in the middle of this table is the Francisco Rodriguez trade, which was one of Stearns’s worst trades on the day it occurred. But thankfully, trades are not solely graded on the day-of, and post hoc analysis loves Manny Pina’s development into (at least) a split time catcher at the MLB level. K-Rod has not been terrible, for what it’s worth, but when that contract winds down to its last year the surplus value really depends on short-term production rather than longterm outlook. This hurts the K-Rod score as much as it hurts Lucroy’s assessment in Texas.

• Let it be stated that the Khris Davis trade return was solid (if not spectacular) on the day-of. But it’s great to be reminded that prospect stock can depreciate, too. Fortunately, scouting reports suggest that Jacob Nottingham can remain behind the plate, answering one previous question. But if that power (and bat) does not come around, it may not matter as much; it is getting more appropriate to highlight, say, the 40-45 end of Nottingham’s grade (still means he reaches the MLB) than the 55 end that helped him reach Oakland’s Top 10. Of course, remember that Manny Pina was probably a 40-45 grade minor leaguer when Milwaukee acquired him, so…you know the rest.

• I believe there could be some reason to reassess prospects like Freddy Peralta or Ryan Cordell, who I would rate as valuable depth options for the system. However, for the purposes of this exercise, there is not necessarily enough non-statistical information to fully develop a new scouting grade. So perhaps a few prospects in this table deserve an asterisk next to their grade.

Turning from the “earlier” trades to the 2017 offseason, one can see how Stearns developed the surprising 2017 contender. It is interesting to note that for the offseason coverage of the club, so many of us (myself included) completely failed to properly price the GM’s immediate value for these trades.

For example, Mauricio Dubon was never (and probably will not be) the prime value of the Thornburg deal. What makes the Thornburg deal so amazing is that, given Thornburg’s career development, a straight-up Dubon-for-Thornburg deal would have been solid. Yet, Stearns did not stop there; the GM managed to return not just Dubon, but also a legitimate MLB asset in Travis Shaw, as well as two total lottery tickets (exemplified in Yusion Coca, the Player-To-Be-Named-Later who completed this deal). This trade should continue to “give” to the organization, whether it is in the form of Josh Pennington or Coco being included in a future trade (they are sufficiently far from the MLB to be traded once more), or Dubon working in a utility role or second-tier MLB starting role.

A quick word: These numbers are indeed abstract! The Brewers claim approximately $472.2 million in depreciated surplus value from these trades, which roughly translates to 67 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) within the system. These 67 WARP could be maximized and turned into 87 market-rate WARP, they could remain steady over time, or they could further depreciate to 49 WARP. These figures are abstract, of course, because they incorporate risk into the system, and can be cashed out any which way; if Stearns cashes out 87 WARP within the next two years, the Brewers will have quite a competitive team; if these players remain merely competitive or decline further, it will be questioned whether more trades were necessary. The players could continue to depreciate, and many could fail to reach the MLB (if they are prospects). Stearns can cash out surplus through trades or development. So these numbers should not necessarily be interpreted to apply to any timeframe; that’s up to the GM to determine.

Since I’ve already focused specifically on the Jett Bandy-Martin Maldonado deal recently, I will not dive deeper into that deal except to emphasize the importance of post hoc trade analysis. Returning to a trade after the fact, with the proper tools, is not simply “using hindsight,” but rather healthy Benefit-Cost Analysis. Moreover, returning to a trade after the fact, with the proper tools, is an opportunity to potentially sharpen those analytical tools in order to provide better day-of trade analysis. But of course, the Bandy trade is not yet complete, nor are most of these deals, really. So, by returning to these trades with analytical methods over time, one can come to understand organizational value as a malleable entity that is never truly solidified at one point in time. This is arguably yet another reason to oppose “rebuilding,” or to opposing “winning now,” or any extreme organizational strategy; it is also possible to never build an organization, or to build an organization through contrarian means (as Stearns is doing). There should be no reason for an MLB club to fail to simultaneously build for the present and future, save for a lack of creativity.

• Eric Thames, nearly a handful of years removed from the MLB, previously a Korean Baseball Organization superstar, translated his overseas success into strong MLB value for the club’s $16 million gamble (1.9 WARP).

• Travis Shaw, a sometimes-platooned third baseman caught in a packed Red Sox infield, flashing his potential as a full-time player (1.4 WARP).

• Jimmy Nelson, a previously middling innings eater in the rotation, now two new pitches and mechanical changes deep into his career, showcasing a solid new look on the mound (1.1 WARP).

• Orlando Arcia, the club’s former top prospect from the 2015 Biloxi breakout, now materializing that fantastic glove on the MLB diamond as the bat develops (1.1 WARP).

• Manny Pina, a former Player To Be Named Later, emerging at the catcher position due to the prolonged absence of Andrew Susac and a gamble on his late 2016 “breakout” (1.1 WARP).

• Corey Knebel, a formerly hyped “high leverage relief” prospect acquired way back in the Yovani Gallardo trade, now receiving a chance to showcase that electric stuff under the microscope of the closer’s role (1.0 WARP).

I do not have one doubt in my mind that if BPMilwaukee, or anyone, really, ran a series of preseason articles claiming that this six-pack of players would lead the Brewers to the top of the division into June, that would have been dismissed as much worse than wishful thinking. Yet, here we are, a gang of unsung players and a couple of hyped prospects are leading the Brewers and creating fantastic value. These six players comprise half the club’s wins above replacement value.

Related Reading:
Cashing Out OFP
Bandy-Maldonado
Aging Braun

Yet, if one compares the current production and contractual status of the Brewers’ major contributors to the preseason surplus expectations, one can find that the expected leaders heading into the season have also been quite strong for the Brewers. Essentially, the vast majority of the expected leaders entering the season have continued to provide value for the roster while another set of depth players are surpassing their expected surplus and that surprising set of leaders paces the WARP rankings.

The following table showcases the Brewers’ current production, compared to their preseason depreciated surplus value. Depreciated surplus value calculates a player’s three-year production basis at 70 percent value, and then prorates that depreciated figure according to the player’s contractual situation. The goal is to project a player’s future production on a declining scale, rather than an optimistic scale. In order to project current value, I also created an expanded depreciated surplus metric, which calculates a player’s 2014-2017 production, basically expanding the three-year model to a 3.33 model. To compare depreciated and bullish models, I also simply projected a player’s value if they maintained peak 2017 performance for the remainder of their contractual reserve. Money is not figured into arbitration or league minimum (reserve) contracts, since those players ostensibly cost the club nothing to release (ex., arbitration eligible players can be non-tendered between seasons at no cost, and the cost of releasing a league minimum player is negligible). For players age-26 or younger, I added an Overall Future Potential (OFP) valuation (Thames has a preseason OFP valuation to express the inability of assessing his expected talent level).

Compare that ranking with the 2017 surplus value leaders entering the season; this is probably the group of players that fans and analysts reasonably would have expected to lead the club. Veteran Ryan Braun and newcomer Junior Guerra have not been bad, but both missed time with injury (0.8 WARP); Jonathan Villar and Zach Davies have struggled to varying degrees (although Davies’s Sunday start against the Dodgers was an exclamation point on the idea that the righty was heading the proper direction) (-0.6 WARP); Travis Shaw is materializing his surplus value and serving as one of the production leaders (1.4 WARP); and Carlos Torres, Hernan Perez, and Keon Broxton are generally serving as valuable depth (1.7 WARP).

Entering the season, this group of players represented $235.8 million in surplus value, which vaguely cashes out into 33-to-34 MLB wins (those wins can be long-term or short-term, obviously depending on when GM David Stearns decides to cash them out); adding the updated “extended depreciated surplus” metric results in $253.2 million in surplus value, or 36-to-37 wins. What is thrilling about this development is that this group of players averages 3.7 years of contractual reserve, meaning that the club has another chance to return many of these players to try and advance this roster once in another year. The actual depreciation of these roster assets has suspended for a year, and the value of these players to the organization is higher because they have improved as a group.

Surplus value is obviously quite an abstract and contentious measurement. First, one can define both scarcity (of a skillset, or service time, etc.) and production in many different ways. Even if one were settled on the idea that “value = production + scarcity,” questions about whether to depreciate a player’s expected production going forward, or to use a player’s maximal outlook, and every question inbetween, would render that equation of suspect meaning.

Even with this caveat in mind, I want to suggest that one of the reason the Brewers are successful in 2017 is that Stearns has capitalized on players that maximized their surplus value in short order. Basically, this group of players have largely staved off any immediate delivery of depreciation, which is thrilling for the roster core and the trade deadline. It would have been ridiculous to suggest that perhaps Jett Bandy could produce enough value to be flipped for a 50 Overall Future Potential (OFP) prospect by the deadline, and perhaps even more bullish to suggest that he would materialize as a long-term quality depth catching option. The same might go for Jacob Barnes or Domingo Santana or even Eric Thames (who would probably be very difficult to trade, in terms of finding a prospect partner that matches his divisive historical profile and approach to the game). This is one way to cash out the improved surplus scenario for the Brewers; but one can also simply say that Stearns has successfully assembled a gang of players that produced three-to-four additional wins in organizational value thus far.

In Out of the Pits: Traders and Technology from Chicago to London (University of Chicago, 2006), Caitlin Zailoom presents an ethnography of commodity markets that demonstrates the embodiment of these markets, as well as the gendered, strategic, and technological standpoints that define commodity markets in space. While many understand the market truth of “buy low, sell high,” most do not dig any deeper than that truism into the strategic forms that materialize that mantra for shareholders. Zailoom demonstrates two specific strategies that allow commodity traders to maximize value: scalping and spreading. A “scalp” is a trade that seeks to immediately capitalize on an asset’s value, while a “spread” strategy focuses on taking offsetting short and long term positions to deliver profitable returns. Both of these strategies are applicable to Stearns and the Brewers front office for the trade season, which many fans are falsely equivocating into “win now” or “continue the rebuild” categories; rather, Stearns can move in several contrarian directions in order to maximize the Brewers’ current and future value.

Scalpers are a fascinating type. Zailoom writes, “local traders hope to profit from correctly predicting the movements of the market up or down and risk losing their own money in the process. They are speculators in the most pure sense — individuals making money purely on the changing prices of financial commodities. Although locals have a variety of trading strategies, most of them are known as ‘scalpers.’ Scalpers trade in and out of the market within seconds or minutes, profiting from small price fluctuations. Making hundreds of trades during the course of the day, the scalper never goes home owning contracts” (p. 62). Obviously, the metaphor of going home without owning contracts cannot apply to a baseball team, but the spirit of quickly capitalizing on moving prices might be applied to many of the players reserved on the Brewers roster. A “spread” strategy most certainly can be applied to baseball trading cycles: “A spreader takes opposing positions in each of two instruments, using the more stable contract to limit the loss potential of a position in the more volatile product” (Zailoom, p. 86). This type of strategy might be ascribed to the notion of “trading from depth,” which ostensibly means that the club is mitigating production volatility by “selling” a player from a position of strength (which therefore equals less organizational risk) in order to “buy” production for another area of the team (ostensibly shifting short-term risk to this acquisition).

A brief visualization, where ‘X’ are the Brewers, and the Brewers are trading with two partners in separate transactions (Team Y, Team Z) involving Overall Future Potential (prospects) and WARP (MLB players) that may be cashed out over an unknown period of time:

Stearns can essentially (1) hedge three-to-four surplus wins created with the MLB roster (basically keeping this as “cash in hand” or “organizational collateral”), (2) trade a “less valuable” MLB player while the iron is hot (a “scalp”), and (3) trade valuable prospects for a more valuable MLB player. This sequence might be the equivalent of flipping a player like Domingo Santana to an American League club (maximizing his offensive value and mitigating his defense), while also trading multiple prospects for a controllable starting pitcher. This is an extremely risky series of deals, but exogenous to the model are those three-to-four surplus wins that essentially mean Stearns really is playing with house money (a familiar theme here at BPMilwaukee).

Consider the Brewers’ current catching depth to demonstrate a scalp and spread. Given the injury status of Andrew Susac, and the relatively slow development of advanced prospect Jacob Nottingham, the position is not necessarily a true position of depth for the organization (especially given the physical toll of the position). Yet, there are other stateside prospect assets around the organization (from Dustin Houle to Mario Feliciano to Jose Sibrian) that could conceivably build a pool of prospects large enough to offset risk of short-term moves. Stearns could “scalp” the monstrous surplus gains of Jett Bandy, which would be about as short a turnaround as one could provide in baseball (ex., a trade in two consecutive “windows,” consecutive offseason to midseason windows). Pina, Susac, Nottingham, Houle, and waivers would provide the most immediate risk mitigation here, with low-ball prospects potentially providing the greatest long-term payout to this strategy for Milwaukee. A “spread” move could see the Brewers buy- and sell- in different directions, depending on available moves to maximize club surplus; it should not necessarily be surprising to see Stearns deal some prospects and also deal some MLB depth. Faced with a roster that has already added up to four wins in depreciated surplus value, and a farm system overflowing with prospects, Stearns can “cash” those four wins in a variety of ways.

Adding layers of deals, the Brewers can take “spread” positions across MLB and minor league levels. Perhaps this means using one deal to trade a flyball prospect (like Trey Supak)…

…and another deal to return a groundball prospect, while using additional deals to return MLB rotational and bullpen depth:

The point is not necessarily to dig into specific players here (really, nearly everyone except for a handful of players should have a transaction value for the organization). Rather, the point is to demonstrate that using embodied market strategies can help transcend the “win now” / “continue the rebuild” trade conundrum that is currently consuming Brewers fans and analysts. The Brewers need not do anything other than return maximal future surplus and present surplus with their MLB players and prospects. Thus may we enter “neverbuilding,” or “counterbuilding supreme”: with significant organizational collateral in hand (three-to-four additional surplus wins) Milwaukee has an opportunity to continue competing in 2017 while transcending the “win now” and “win never.”

This morning I’m focusing on the bats. Let’s remember where the affiliates were on April 25:

And now, through May 12:

A couple of interesting notes:

• The Pacific Coast League continues to be the most favorable batting environment within the system, which should cause fans to place a pile of salt on their statistics citations for Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Ryan Cordell, etc. Normalizing their performances to their environment should help one to present more realistic expectations for potential MLB call-ups.

• Keep an on Jacob Nottingham, who is heating up in May (.261 / .346 / .435 thus far). For the year, he’s faced brutal opposing OPS of .639 in a pitcher’s environment, so his overall total of eight extra base hits and six walks in 97 Plate Appearances look intriguing. If Nottingham can begin to find his power in this environment, it could signal a potential breakout ability in a more favorable (i.e., even an average) batting environment.

• Over the last couple of weeks, there has been a huge shift in the Midwest League at Wisconsin, causing competition levels to stratify there. Demi Orimoloye’s power surge looks especially impressive against opposing OPS of .681, so it will be interesting to see what midseason scouting reports reveal about his current performance and approach.

• Fans concerned about the performance of Lucas Erceg and Corey Ray, absent any specific scouting notes about their respective performances, should heavily weigh their tough opposition against their stat lines. Compared to the league opposition of .708 OPS, the median Carolina Mudcats regulars face opposition of .696 OPS. Within this environment, Ray has faced opponents with a .681 OPS, Erceg a .693 OPS. For this reason, throw aside the stats concerns and await scouting and approach notes.