Prospective 2018

The 2017 Brewers pose an extremely interesting problem for those analysts that enjoy looking forward on the calendar:

• At least two of Milwaukee’s 2017 BaseballProspectus Top 10 could reasonably lose rookie status during extended MLB stints in 2017 (a la Orlando Arcia in 2016).
• At least six of the Brewers 2017 BaseballProspectus Top 10 could reasonably make the majors in 2017, which arguably exposes another handful of prospects to the specter of losing their rookie status.
• At least sixteen “Top 50 Organizational Depth” / “Top 30 Consideration” players could make the majors in 2017 (obviously depending upon injuries, ineffectiveness, performance, and so forth). (Ex., a guy like Jon Perrin could leap a whole gang of ranked guys and enter an MLB role without so much as touching a top prospect list; it shouldn’t be shocking to imagine a scenario in which Perrin makes the MLB prior to even Josh Hader or Brandon Woodruff [without criticizing either Hader or Woodruff].)

Here’s the matrix I have in mind, as I attempt to rank Top 50 talent (admittedly, this list is short, as I do not include additional Top 50 players like Andrew Barbosa, Paolo Espino, and Forrest Snow, who I honestly do not know how to rank outside of “usual suspects as intriguing minor league depth very close to the MLB”):

Why is this fun? First off, almost as soon as Lewis Brinson and Luis Ortiz arrive, they could be off of a prospects list and into Milwaukee navy. GM David Stearns’s best prospect hauls could already be graduated from prospect lists in no time flat. If Phil Bickford’s suspension unleashes the righty from a starting pitching prospect to a reliever (please let this be so!), he could conceivably leap to the MLB without making a BaseballProspectus Top Prospect list for the Brewers. Other “new mainstay” prospects from President Doug Melvin’s final hurrah (Josh Hader and Brett Phillips) could also conceivably see substantial MLB time in 2017 (although Hader has an arguably easier task than Phillips, given their respective positions). This is fun! Almost as soon as many of these prospects arrive, they will clear space for other organizational talent for the 2018 iteration of Brewers top prospects.

So, what next? Just to visualize the question at hand, the Brewers have well over a dozen extremely young players that have some tools and some shortcomings that could shift the balance in either direction for their respective prospect fates:

This is almost an absurdly young group of players, which foreshadows a sea change within the Brewers organization. Frankly, a handful of highly regarded players from the 2015 BaseballProspectus list could return to the Top Ten for 2018 (D. Williams, T. Williams, and Lara), not simply because of the number of young question marks in the system, but also on their own merits should they take steps forward within their own respective development paths. Even assuming that only Lewis Brinson, Josh Hader, Jorge Lopez, and Michael Reed exhaust their rookie status in 2017, the remaining list from the 2017 Top Ten, “just interesting,” and strong depth categories make for a deep Top 30 when coupled with the breakout candidates. I’ve arranged these players by position and last name in order not to show any favoritism:

This list does not even include the 2018 June draft, any trades made between now and the end of the season, and it still does not include just about everyone that could arguably make Top 50 status in the Brewers system.

What is the point of this? After 2017, the Brewers’ top prospects list becomes almost completely amoebic, flexible, and frankly without meaning. I implore you to rank these prospects 1-through-whenever-you-want-to-stop and discern any clear aspects of meaning within those ranks. Sure, should Demi Orimoloye or Corbin Burnes polish their shortcomings during breakout 2017 campaigns, they are probably better prospects and much easier Top Ten candidates than, say, Monte Harrison or Carlos Herrera. But that’s not even to rag on Harrison or Herrera, (a) because they are STILL so young, (b) they still have tools worth watching, and (c) holy crap these guys could be relatively young rookies entering 2020 (for example, Monte Harrison will be playing in his age-24 season in 2020, and Carlos Herrera will be working during his age-23 season in 2020 [!!!]).

I’ve previously written that the Brewers rebuild is effectively over, and I still believe that 100 percent: Ryan Braun is really only the last remaining “true contract” that Milwaukee could shed in “true rebuilding” fashion. There are no more rebuilding trades to be had. Moreover, the 2017 roster is constructed to provide plenty of opportunities for prospects to breakthrough to the MLB club, which clearly signals a development phase at the MLB level. This club is shifting their identity through many different aspects of the organizational, and the prospect list will so shift; it may not even be as impressive in 2018, which is why I want to work on these types of exercises now in order to understand the depths of talent within the system.

Imagine Orimoloye or Burnes within any given Brewers system three or four years ago; their tools profiles would stand out even regardless of potential shortcomings that keep them from their most valuable MLB ceilings (or the MLB altogether). Now, consider those profiles among the last remaining prospects from an MLB-ready gang that can provide replacement depth, bench roles, or starting challenges, alongside the best internal breakout talents.

By the end of 2018, there might be five clear internal prospects that leap into the elite tier of the system. Which is not even to say that the Brewers will have a bad system because it’s barren after #6. Rather, it’s simply that there are now approximately 30 prospects to consider during the 2017 season that could fall between #6 and the back end of a Top 30 list. A

As a result, the Brewers are probably going to enter a period during which their farm ranking is quite volatile. It is not entirely clear that this system will be a consensus Top Third MLB system once the very best prospects graduate and lose rookie eligibility, which could happen as early as this coming season. What Brewers fans must keep in mind is that so much of the currently reserved prospect talent is young enough to weather a development setback or two without necessarily losing their potential floor (for they could regain it two years from now and enter the MLB well before a respective prime age ceiling). Furthermore, this type of depth, especially prior to the 2018 draft, means that Stearns could have an absurd portfolio of prospects from which to trade by as early as the 2017 deadline, as well. If the Brewers system will become much more volatile in outlook very, very quickly, it could also yield tremendous on-field results just as quickly (and through many channels, at that). Add in a good draft in either 2017, 2018, or 2019, not to mention good counterbuilding trades or a new chance at rebuilding, and the Brewers system identity promises to be faceless and flexible for the next half-decade.