Five years ago, Joaquin De La Cruz was just starting out as one of those kids. When he was 17, De La Cruz signed with the St. Louis Cardinals and reported to camp as a lanky corner infielder with a sweet glove and a violent swing. He proceeded to post a .215/.335/.281 batting line, flashing a good eye, but little else at the plate. That’s okay; he was young for his league, and would have a chance to develop next year.

That’s when disaster struck, helped by a dose of bad luck. On the heels of a .176 BABIP, De La Cruz regressed to a .127/.213/.152 triple-slash. He struck out more, took fewer walks, and tallied all of two extra base hits across 180 plate appearances. He was probably pressing some, knowing that he was playing his way out of St. Louis’ plans. At the end of the year, he was cut. It probably didn’t come as much of a surprise.

The best teams in baseball leave no stone unturned. Legions of organization employees scavenge international markets, plumb the waiver wire, and sift through spreadsheets, all in pursuit of talent and value. Someone in the Brewers organization saw some talent in Joaquin De La Cruz, even after his 2014 showing. Before the start of the 2015 season, Milwaukee handed him a contract and deposited him in their DSL facility, this time on the pitcher’s mound. Perhaps a scout was impressed by a rocket of a throw across the diamond.

The results were solid that first year, especially for a first-time pitcher. The right-handed De La Cruz pitched to a 4.62 ERA, but sported strong peripherals. He struck at a batter per inning, walked only 1.8 men per nine, and steadfastly refused to give up a home run. His 2.33 DRA foretold a future on the mound. De La Cruz was older than his competition now, but the Brewers were prepared to show him patience that St. Louis never had.

2016 was another strong year. Across 55 innings, De La Cruz struck out 46, walked just 15, gave up his first (and, to date, only) home run, and generated ground balls at a 59 percent clip. His DRA stood at 2.79, his ERA at 3.44. A surge in Milwaukee’s minor league depth made it tough to crack a stateside roster, but it wasn’t for lack of talent. De La Cruz returned to the Dominican Summer League for 2017, two years older than his teammates. His experience showed. Across 18 innings, De La Cruz fanned 17 batters, walked seven, kept an astonishing 77 percent of balls in play on the ground, and posted perfect 0.00 DRA.

That kind of performance would persuade any team to hand out a promotion, and De La Cruz’s came on June 22. He’s pitching for the Arizona League Brewers against same-age competition now, and he’s started in five of his nine appearances. He’s on fire, too. The relevant digits: 37.7 innings pitched, 42 Ks, 17 walks, 56 percent ground balls, a 2.87 ERA, a 2.01 DRA.

Of course, it’s one thing to taste some success on the lowest rungs of the minor-league ladder. Plenty of prospects do that. It’s quite another to improve and adjust and climb your way to the top. De La Cruz has a long journey ahead, perhaps even longer than the one he’s endured already. But even If his fastball flames out, he’s giving himself a longer look in front of organization officials, as well as those from other organizations, for that matter. If his arm breaks down, perhaps De La Cruz could still help the club one day as a translator, or a scout, or a coach. Those doors are open for him now, or more open than they were before his journey to Arizona. Or perhaps he’s the next Kenley Jansen. He could be setting up for fellow converts Parker Berberet and Nick Ramirez in the back of the Brewers’ bullpen five years from now. He could be leading the rotation. These outcomes are unlikely, of course. But so was De La Cruz’s journey to the States in the first place. No matter how the next few years play out, the 21-year-old has plenty of reasons to be proud.

Part One: Cooper / Gatewood / Hiura

Throughout the season, I’ve attempted to provide contextual statistics that help fans read along with the box scores. If we are going to have to read imperfect information, we might as well know as many things as possible for the league. For example, in Brinson’s case, we have a swirling set of circumstances: although he’s very young for AAA Pacific Coast League, he’s also facing easy competition in an extremely friendly hitting environment. This does not diminish his tools, but it should add some salt to the stat line. To accompany this installment of the Midseason 2017 3 Up 3 Down, here is an attempt to provide a normalized index for the Brewers’ “regular” minor leaguers thus far. This exercise should also be taken with a grain of salt, as there are imperfections even with the information available about minor league players; for example, a player’s youth in a league may not necessarily make the league more difficult depending on their toolbox, or a player’s park environment also might not accurately reflect the impact on player development.

One benefit of normalizing statistics is that players can be compared across levels to some degree. So, I normalized a player’s On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) or OPS-allowed for pitchers by using:

• Individualized Opposing OPS normalized by league context (league median Opposing OPS for regulars).
• Batting and Pitching Park Factors (where available) normalized against median league park factors for regular players.
• Player age normalized by league median age for regular players.

Weighing these elements together, consider the Brewers batting minor leaguers with 100+ PA, and minor leaguer arms with 30+ IP (and available park factors). Tables are pasted below for maximal reading enjoyment. Batters are ranked from high-to-low to showcase the players whose OPS performance occurred against the “lowest” or toughest Opposing OPS, and pitchers are ranked from low-to-high to showcase the arms whose OPS performances occurred against the “highest” or toughest Opposing OPS. Take a grain of salt with this index, as age is highly favored, as is park factor. Park factor may also unduly impact opposing OPS, as there is a good argument to be made that such a number should not be park adjusted (since it already expresses context in a different manner). But, it’s an approximation of a batter or pitcher’s OPS performance against their environment, which may be something to keep in mind alongside scouting reports or other “naked” discussions of their performances.

The BPMilwaukee Editorial Staff (Nicholas Zettel and Kyle Lesniewski) contributed to this feature, as well as Craig Goldstein and John Eshleman from the Baseball Prospectus prospect team.

3 UP
LHP Nick Ramirez, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): The Brewers drafted Ramirez in the 4th round in 2011 out of Cal-State Fullerton to be a power-hitting first baseman. The power has always been there as the left-handed slugger clubbed 95 home runs in 685 minor league games, but his career appeared to have stalled out after a third straight season of hitting under .250 in Class-AA. Last fall, the Brewers asked Ramirez to switch back to the other position he handled during his collegiate career: left-handed reliever. After a six year layoff, Ramirez has shown a surprisingly good feel for mound work while navigating through the Southern League. He’s appeared in 28 games and tossed 42.0 frames, yielding only a minuscule 1.50 ERA. His 29:17 K/BB rate and 3.68 FIP are a bit more pedestrian than the ERA would suggest (though he is generating an absurd amount of infield fly balls at 23.8 percent), but again this guy hadn’t pitched in over a half-decade prior to 2017. Nick has flashed a 90-91 MPH fastball along with a changeup and curveball and has been able to hold opposing lefties to just a .180 batting average against. Oh, and he also has two home runs and a 1.207 OPS in 19 plate appearances as a hitter this year, too. Ramirez is set for minor league free agency this fall if Milwaukee doesn’t add him to the 40 man roster, but a switch to the mound should certainly lengthen what appeared to be a career on life support less than a year ago.

C Mario Feliciano, A Wisconsin (picked by Craig Goldstein): Was it obvious that Lucas Erceg was the better prospect than Mario Feliciano following the 2016 draft? Certainly, Erceg was the more polished ballplayer, and his quick ascent during the 2016 season allowed him to churn the hype machine on his draft position. But, separated within the BaseballAmerica pre-draft Top 500, the two were respectively ranked #72 and #103, which is not an extreme spread and not necessarily as impactful as separating the #5 prospect from the #36 prospect. Both Erceg and Feliciano were drafted in the second round, Feliciano as a Competitive Balance pick. The reports on Feliciano were optimistic about his ability to stick behind the plate from the get go, which also theoretically gives the youngster positional advantage over Erceg. This is not to say that I expect Erceg to drop out of the 2018 Top 10 and Feliciano to leap into the Top 10 (they both could be there!), but simply that there is not a clear chasm of value between Erceg and Feliciano in the long term, and in the grand scheme Feliciano may be the better pure future value prospect.

Goldstein on Feliciano: He’s cooled off of late but he has the athleticism to catch and his bat is potent enough to handle a switch off the position should it come to that.

IF Aaron Familia, Dominican Summer (picked by Nicholas Zettel): Don’t scout the stat line, I know, I know, but if you’re going to scout the stat line there’s not many places better to do so than the Dominican Summer League. These guys are so far from the MLB as to be literal dreams, but there’s still good reason to maybe eye up some peripherals and see how the young guys in the league are performing. Familia is one of the Brewers’ 2016 signings from the July 2 period, and he returned to the Dominican Summer League after a rough first stint during his age-17 season. Now, Familia has found his footing, walking 10 times in 68 PA as of this writing, along with eight extra base hits and a .278 batting average. That walk rate is above average even for the 2017 DSL, as is the extra base hit total (the 2017 DSL has a .238 AVG with five percent of plate appearances resulting in an extra base hit). One ought to keep an eye on Familia, as the Brewers have recently been aggressive in promoting young DSL talent to the USA midseason (Franly Mallen comes to mind, for example). If Familia continues to prove himself, he could add to the bulk of amazing high risk talent at the bottom of the Brewers system.

3 Down
OF Corey Ray, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein, Josh Eshleman):
At Baseball Prospectus, Christopher Crawford praised the Corey Ray pick following the 2016 draft: “He can flat out hit, and he has underrated pop from the left side. He’s also a guy who can steal 30-40 bases, and I give him at least a chance to stick at center. The upside is high, but it’s the extremely high floor that makes me love this pick. Good job, Milwaukee.” More measured debate focused on the potential issue of Ray as a ‘tweener (centerfield versus left field), with additional questions arising about how Ray’s offensive profile might play should he become a left fielder. Perhaps that high floor ‘tweener looks pretty solid, although scouting questions are eating at that high ceiling.

Goldstein on Ray: Ray hasn’t had a bad season by any means, but in my viewing he didn’t pop like you’d think a top-five selection would, a sentiment echoed by others I’ve talked to.

Eshleman on Ray: The primary concern among scouts is Ray’s hit tool, and he has struggled with velocity in 2017, a primary reason has k-rate has ballooned over 30%.

RHP Marcos Diplan, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Diplan was mentioned as one of the prospects to keep an eye on in the Top 10 Prospects post from the BP main site earlier this year, but he’s struggled mightily to prevent runs ever since a midseason promotion to high-A last season. His fastball can hit the mid-90s and he flashes a plus slider, which has helped him miss bats at a rate of 9.6 K/9 this season. But his control appears to have taken a step in the wrong direction, as he’s issued walks at an 11.5 percent clip this season and has already unleashed nine wild pitches. Diplan’s diminutive stature and still-developing changeup may mean he’s already ultimately ticketed for the bullpen at some point, but a 5.77 ERA/4.82 DRA/4.71 FIP isn’t what you want to see out of a guy who is supposedly considered to be one of the org’s better pitching prospects.

2B Javier Betancourt, AA Biloxi (picked by Nicholas Zettel): What do you do with a prospect like Javier Betancourt in a professional era that fetishizes home runs, strike outs, and walks? Betancourt is exactly the opposite. The advanced ball second baseman is batting approximately 77.8 percent of balls into play for the season, which basically means that Betancourt’s strike outs, walks, and home runs total the basic strikeout rate of the typical 2017 Southern League batter. Granted, there was never a ton to dream on for Betancourt from the day the Brewers traded for him, as he’s a true glove first second baseman without a high ceiling on the bat (ex., the opposite of Isan Diaz, perhaps). Yet, I think there’s something worth looking into for nearly any young batting profile (at age-22, Betancourt is indeed among the small class of younger AA players) that can maintain a median performance for that age group at an advanced level of professional baseball. I also think it’s worth looking at Betancourt precisely because he is such a left turn from the typical Brewers prospect at the moment (all tools, lots of swing and miss, boatloads of speed and power to make up for that). A bit of a wrinkle in Betancourt’s defensive position accompanies a recent slump, but it could be worth stating that if Betancourt continues to play at 2B and 3B, a modified utility profile could escalate the odds that he gets a chance to test this all-contact profile at the MLB level.

Betancourt perhaps is the answer to a question I ask myself from time to time, is there room for “bat control” guys in contemporary MLB? Which is simply to remind everyone that iterations of baseball are subject to professional preferences (and perhaps biases). One could conceivably design an MLB based around guys like Betancourt, which raises another interesting question, namely what would we think about guys like Lewis Brinson or Demi Orimoloye or Keon Broxton if the league was all about the Betancourts? Not that the league should be all about the Betancourts, but rather what value could be found in a seemingly stalled prospect profile that nevertheless is producing at an advanced class.

Minor League Context Tables:

I cheated and included Corbin Burnes in Class-AA Biloxi because if you can’t cheat a little bit, what’s the fun?

Let’s have a look at where the system stood for the previous update:

Now, here’s the competition through May 12:

There are a few things worth noting here:

• Brandon Woodruff is whipping the Pacific Coast League, but he’s faced one of the easiest opposing OPS among regular pitchers. It is still worth digging into Woodruff’s solidly above average strikeout and walk rates, and also emphasizing that Woodruff has maintained his 48 percent groundball: 52 percent flyball ratios established at Class-AA Biloxi last season. Everyone is excited to see Woodruff take the next step to Milwaukee, but as with Lewis Brinson, take that shiny surface statistical performance with a grain of salt and expect a slightly more average MLB role.

• On the contrary, what role can one present for age-30 phenom Paolo Espino? In terms of scouting stuff, no one would place Espino ahead of Woodruff. Espino seems like a pitchability-supreme guy. And so he is, outpitching Brewers fans’ current favorite pitching prospect while facing significantly tougher opponents (.756 oppOPS to Woodruff’s .724 mark). With Junior Guerra returning from the disabled list, and a series of rotating improvements among Brewers starters, Espino may find it easiest to sneak into an MLB bullpen role. But, handling a tough PCL does lead one to wonder whether Espino could start; we’ll split the difference and call him a pitchability swingman for 2017.

• We await scouting updates on Trey Supak, but as recently featured on BPMilwaukee, the young righty is maximizing his time in the Midwest League. Supak is posting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio among Wisconsin starters. For the future, watch his flyball rate (currently 66 percent) and look for scouting updates on Supak’s third pitch.

• Might we praise the 19-16 Biloxi Shuckers, those Shuckers outplaying a sub-.500 run differential in an extremely tough environment? The Shuckers, the gem of the Brewers system breakout in 2015, are the forgotten affiliate in 2017, as the in-between prospects from last year’s forgettable Brevard County club and the remainder of 40-man roster depth and advanced minors veterans forge a supreme sub-hype crew. Shuckers bullpen leaders Matt Ramsey, Nick Ramirez, Taylor Scott, Forrest Snow, and Bubba Derby have a lot to say about that, with a cumulative 102.3 IP, 104 K / 46 BB / 7 HR (0.20 Fielding Independent Pitching ratio), and 32 runs allowed (2.82 runs average against an approximate 3.71 park-adjusted run environment, good for 10 runs prevented).

• And yet they win, lead by Jorge Lopez and Luis Ortiz. Lopez and Ortiz have both faced notably tougher-than-median opponents, and within this duo Ortiz has faced even significantly tougher opponents still. But no sweat, as the median-age Lopez and very-young Ortiz are posting strong K:BB ratios. From here out, keep an eye on the flyballs, as both righties have flyball rates above 60 percent; this figure may fly in the suppressed environment of Biloxi, but could be very problematic at Miller Park (currently playing a 102 pitching park factor over thee years, according to Baseball Reference).

Related Reading:
Camp Prospects
Independent League Signings
A Bullpen for 2017

One of the best parts about spring training is that many ballparks have PITCHf/x technology, which means that Brooks Baseball begins updating some player cards with data. This is a great chance to get an actual idea about what depth prospects throw, even taking the data with gigantic grains of salt (for example, there are relatively few pitches tracked during spring, which leaves open several debates about calibration and significance). Nevertheless, this is a tasty dish even with that giant grain of salt, so let’s take a chance to see what members of the Brewers bullpen camp are throwing.

Many of these arms are featured in previous BPMilwaukee spring stories, which only goes to show that we love our prospects here and hope they grab that big league cash. Among the most interesting minor leaguers are the aforementioned Kohlscheen and Espino, along with newly converted southpaw Nick Ramirez, and some surprises like Preston Gainey. Unfortunately, no 2017 data are yet available for Jon Olczak, Aaron Wilkerson, or even Tim Dillard.

The Brewers signed many minor league contracts during the 2016-2017 offseason, and in the wake of the Junior Guerra success story, it seemed as though GM David Stearns was looking to expand on the age-discrepancy-market. Several “non-prospects” thus joined camp, including Andrew Barbosa. The 6’8″ lefty does not have a fastball to match his size, which leads one to wonder if that 87-88 MPH riding fastball is surprising and deceptive coming from such a large frame. In the Eastern League in 2016, the southpaw struck out 36 of 154 batters faced during seven starts, leading a 3.50 Deserved Runs Average (DRA). Barbosa’s main question mark may be a flyball tendency.

Although it’s easy to focus on the new signings, Milwaukee also has a couple of aging “non-prospects” within their own system that have intriguing statistical performances. Stephen Kohlscheen is entering his second year in the Brewers organization, and will be working a level removed from the MLB during his age-28 season. The 6’6″ righty is currently working a fastball-slider combo of the bread-and-butter variety; the fastball is rising, and the slider’s vertical and horizontal movement is relatively short. Perhaps Kohlscheen will join Jacob Barnes as a true fastball-slider, meat-and-potatoes reliever. The 32.8 percent strike out rate, 3.94 K/BB, 2.26 DRA, and are worth another look.

Nick Ramirez’s story is by now well-known in spring camp, as the stalling first baseman shifted back to the mound to reclaim a previous college pitching role. Ramirez is now the best kind of longshot story as a player who will throw his first professional pitch at age-27. Thus far the PITCHf/x looks nice for the southpaw, who is flashing a lot of break on his fastball while also working on three off-speed offerings. Make no mistake about it, Ramirez has a long way to go to prove that he can retire professional batters, but as a left-handed pitcher he will undoubtedly receive as many chances as he needs to prove his strengths from the mound.

Among the competitors that saw time in the 2016 Brewers bullpen, the spring training stuff already looks like last year’s stuff. This is arguably a good thing, as it means that Jacob Barnes, Jhan Marinez, and Corey Knebel are ready to take the next step to preserve close ballgames in Milwaukee. Barnes has the most fascinating fastball/slider combination, so much so that I’d actually suggest describing his PITCHf/x mix as “cutter-screwball.” Looking at Barnes’s delivery and stuff, there does not appear to be a lot of room for deception, but yet the “fastball” nearly moves glove-side, which is very rare for right-handed pitchers (even rising fastballs usually have armside run). As a result of the unorthodox fastball, Barnes’s slider has more armside break compared to the fastball, which effectively makes it a screwball in practice. Barnes is so much fun to watch because he’s quite a throwback reliever, so Brewers fans must enjoy this hard, no-nonsense arsenal while it’s still around.

What’s striking about the Marinez, Knebel, and Barnes trio is that each reliever works in a completely different range. Marinez is a true sinker reliever, while Knebel throws a riding-running fastball, and Barnes has his little cutter. Meanwhile, Knebel changes it up with a huge curveball, while Barnes uses a much tighter arsenal in his cutter-screwball approach. Marinez also uses a slider, but his variation is quite different than Barnes’s; Marinez throws a much more traditional slider insofar as the pitch breaks approximately five inches gloveside (i.e., “away” from righty bats) from his fastball.

Finally, it’s interesting to see readings on Josh Hader’s fastball, as well as a much quieter delivery from the southpaw. Certainly, Hader is not rushing up that true-70 southpaw heat that he flashed during a short Arizona Fall League stint in 2015. Yet, if the lefty still works in the mid-90s, but a quieter delivery allows him to regain command and repeat his change up, that’s quiet a strong delivery if it allows Hader to stick as a starter. Less “exciting” and more “repetition” with a broader arsenal for Hader should be music to Brewers fans’ ears.

There’s a lot to watch in spring training, including PITCHf/x statistics, so enjoy March while you can: this is a great chance to get a look at depth prospects, and also associate some “stuff” measurements with minor league statistics later in the season.