For some, the shock of that season never wore off. Prior to last October, there was reason to speculate that my dad played a part in the famous Cubs curse; he hadn’t set foot in Wrigley since. A few months ago, my wife and I plotted to change that. We were coming up for a long weekend, and flights to Chicago were invitingly cheap. Why not take in a famous Wrigley day game with mom and dad on a Ferris-Bueller-perfect May afternoon, beneath cotton candy clouds?

Chicago’s famously hospitable confines had other plans for us last Friday. We gutted through three innings of mid-30s wind chill and bitter Lake Michigan rain before retreating to the car and catching the rest on the radio. At present, it’s uncertain whether my dad will ever pluck up the courage to attempt a game at Wrigley again. If he does, it’ll probably be in the middle of August, against a last-place team. But all was not lost. We visited one of baseball’s most hallowed halls, and emerged, dripping, with a memory we’ll be able to laugh about whenever we finally regain feeling in our toes. Also of note: The rain-soaked debut of one Paolo Espino.

Espino could scarcely have asked for worse conditions in which to pitch. As such, it’s difficult to glean anything meaningful from his performance. It’s tough to spin a curveball when you can’t feel your fingers.

Nonetheless, Espino flashed a few encouraging signs in his first start in the show. For one, he failed to walk a single batter over his four-inning start in spite of the wind and the wet. By contrast, Cubs starter Eddie Butler walked five men in just three innings, and enjoyed at least as many pep talks from catcher Wilson Contreras. Espino didn’t exactly fill the zone. Of his 71 total pitches, just 42 were strikes. But the absence of walks points to a pitcher with good game awareness: He can throw strikes when they’re needed, and waste a few breakers in favorable counts in the hopes that someone chases.

The stocky right-hander mixed his pitches well, relying on his fringey 89-mph fastball for about 49 percent of his pitches, per Brooks Baseball. That gave him plenty of opportunity to work in his 12-6 hammer curve (18.3 percent), slider (16.9 percent), and changeup (11.3 percent), with room left over for three sinkers to boot. Espino achieved nice separation, with his curveball riding in almost twenty miles per hour behind the four-seam fastball, while his slider and change split the difference.

And those secondaries looked pretty good in spite of the cold. Espino registered three strikeouts for the game – one on a fastball and two on the curve. In the second inning, he did this to Wilson Contreras:

Espino’s slider is nothing to be trifled with, either. Here’s reigning MVP Kris Bryant lunging at one for a first-inning groundout:

Though Espino left the game with a 4.50 ERA after yielding three runs (two earned) to the defending champs, both DRA and FIP paint a rosier picture; they sit at 1.60 and 1.09, respectively. (Just don’t tell them about the pair of balls that were drilled straight into the oncoming 20-mph wind.)

Realistically, Espino’s preseason forecast of a 4.49 ERA and 4.80 DRA holds up pretty well, though it’s not hard to imagine him slightly outperforming those figures if given the chance. The imminent return of Junior Guerra from the disabled list has shunted Espino back to Colorado Springs for now. But for my part, I hope the Brewers give him another shot this summer, if for no other reason than that I’d love to see what he can do with that curveball when he can get a proper grip.

Background: Espino began his career as a 10th-round pick by the Cleveland Indians way back in 2006 as a prep arm out of The Pendleton School in Florida. The native of Panama spent the first seven years of his career within the Indians’ organization before signing with the Nationals as a minor league free agent and spending three seasons within their minor league ranks. David Stearns and the Milwaukee Brewers signed Espino to a minor league deal last winter, and he began the season in the rotation for the Class-AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox. Despite playing his home games in baseball’s harshest pitching environment, Espino has been one of the top pitchers in all of AAA this season. He has made seven starts for the Sky Sox, working 39.0 innings while authoring a 2.54 ERA and 40:5 K/BB ratio. DRA feels as though his run prevention totals don’t do his pitching skills near enough justice, as he owns a 0.71 mark this season, which translates to a ridiculous 14 DRA-. Really, this season has just been a continuation of Espino’s extended dominance of the upper minors:

Last season, Craig Counsell gave shots to atypical prospects like Junior Guerra and Brent Suter because in his mind they had “earned it.” It’s a similar situation here for Espino, who gets the first crack at the big league rotation over top prospects like Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, and Jorge Lopez, none of whom have been as effective statistically as Espino has this season.

Scouting Report: Espino is a short, stocky pitcher, standing  at 5’10” and tipping the scales at 215 lbs. He throws from a high three-quarters arm slot with a quiet, simple delivery and is a quick worker on the mound. I profiled Espino for BP Milwaukee back in March and made note of his expansive repertoire of pitches. He’ll come after hitters with a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, changeup, but his best pitch is his 12-6 overhand curveball.

What does Paolo Espino bring to the table? Starts with a heavy dose of that 12-6 curveball. #Brewers pic.twitter.com/BzYrgvhwIf

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) May 18, 2017

Espino doesn’t throw tremendously hard and sits in that 88-92 MPH range with his fastball. The profile is built around guile and pitchability; this approach features heavy use of that Uncle Charlie, which he will run up there between 73-76 MPH and throw in any count to any hitter and easily spot for strikes. Espino displays plus command of his arsenal, having walked just 1.8 batters per nine during his 92 AAA appearances while routinely posting stellar CSAA totals. He can get some swings and misses, especially with the curve, and generates a fair amount of ground balls, too; he has induced them at a 49 percent clip this season. Home run balls have been a bit of a bugaboo this season, but pitching in Security Service Field no doubt has something to do with that.

Immediate Big League Future: It has taken 11 long years for Paolo Espino to earn his first call-up to the big leagues, and it might wind up being a relatively short one. As mentioned previously, Junior Guerra is nearing his return from the strained calf muscle that he suffered on Opening Day. Guerra will make one more rehab start tomorrow with AA Biloxi and could be ready to return as early as May 25th. Depending on performance, that could mean that Espino may receive only one start before an opening needs to be created in the rotation. Perhaps if he pitches well against the Cubs and Zach Davies (5.44 ERA) struggles through his next outing, it will buy Espino more time in the starting rotation. That being said, the profile for Espino is one of a back-end type starter or swingman at the big-league level. He’s never been considered a top prospect and has only garnered one mention in the BP Annual, back in 2012. It’s quite an accomplishment for a player even to just reach the big leagues, and for that Espino deserves a pat on the back, but his role going forward is likely as rotation depth.

Fantasy Take: Like I said, this could very well be a one-start cameo for Espino at the big league level. He’ll be facing the defending-champion Cubs during an afternoon game at Wrigley Field, and will have a tall task keeping their talented lineup in check, so it’s a tough call to determine if he’s worth picking up even if you need a starter. If Espino does wind up becoming a mainstay in the starting rotation, his fantasy value will be driven by a low WHIP thanks to his minute walk rate. His strikeout rates will likely be about average, and PECOTA projects him for a 4.27 ERA. That would be a solid real-world contribution to his big league team, but probably wouldn’t be overly useful to your fantasy squad.

Let’s have a look at where the system stood for the previous update:

Now, here’s the competition through May 12:

There are a few things worth noting here:

• Brandon Woodruff is whipping the Pacific Coast League, but he’s faced one of the easiest opposing OPS among regular pitchers. It is still worth digging into Woodruff’s solidly above average strikeout and walk rates, and also emphasizing that Woodruff has maintained his 48 percent groundball: 52 percent flyball ratios established at Class-AA Biloxi last season. Everyone is excited to see Woodruff take the next step to Milwaukee, but as with Lewis Brinson, take that shiny surface statistical performance with a grain of salt and expect a slightly more average MLB role.

• On the contrary, what role can one present for age-30 phenom Paolo Espino? In terms of scouting stuff, no one would place Espino ahead of Woodruff. Espino seems like a pitchability-supreme guy. And so he is, outpitching Brewers fans’ current favorite pitching prospect while facing significantly tougher opponents (.756 oppOPS to Woodruff’s .724 mark). With Junior Guerra returning from the disabled list, and a series of rotating improvements among Brewers starters, Espino may find it easiest to sneak into an MLB bullpen role. But, handling a tough PCL does lead one to wonder whether Espino could start; we’ll split the difference and call him a pitchability swingman for 2017.

• We await scouting updates on Trey Supak, but as recently featured on BPMilwaukee, the young righty is maximizing his time in the Midwest League. Supak is posting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio among Wisconsin starters. For the future, watch his flyball rate (currently 66 percent) and look for scouting updates on Supak’s third pitch.

• Might we praise the 19-16 Biloxi Shuckers, those Shuckers outplaying a sub-.500 run differential in an extremely tough environment? The Shuckers, the gem of the Brewers system breakout in 2015, are the forgotten affiliate in 2017, as the in-between prospects from last year’s forgettable Brevard County club and the remainder of 40-man roster depth and advanced minors veterans forge a supreme sub-hype crew. Shuckers bullpen leaders Matt Ramsey, Nick Ramirez, Taylor Scott, Forrest Snow, and Bubba Derby have a lot to say about that, with a cumulative 102.3 IP, 104 K / 46 BB / 7 HR (0.20 Fielding Independent Pitching ratio), and 32 runs allowed (2.82 runs average against an approximate 3.71 park-adjusted run environment, good for 10 runs prevented).

• And yet they win, lead by Jorge Lopez and Luis Ortiz. Lopez and Ortiz have both faced notably tougher-than-median opponents, and within this duo Ortiz has faced even significantly tougher opponents still. But no sweat, as the median-age Lopez and very-young Ortiz are posting strong K:BB ratios. From here out, keep an eye on the flyballs, as both righties have flyball rates above 60 percent; this figure may fly in the suppressed environment of Biloxi, but could be very problematic at Miller Park (currently playing a 102 pitching park factor over thee years, according to Baseball Reference).

One of the Brewers’ most intriguing moves this past offseason was executed way back in November, when 30 year old righty Paolo Espino was signed to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training as a non-roster invitee. Espino began his career way back in 2006 as a 10th round draftee by Cleveland out of The Pendleton School (HS) in Bradenton, Florida. He ascended through the lower levels of the minor leagues rather quickly, reaching the AA level for the first time in 2009 and AAA the following year. Espino has been right on the cusp of the big leagues pitching at either AA or AAA in every season since then, including the last three seasons as a member of the Nationals org, but has yet to receive his first call-up to The Show.

So what’s so interesting about a short, stocky (5’10”, 215 lbs) right hander on the wrong side of 30 who has never pitched in the MLB? Well, what if I told you that he’s been one of the most dominant pitchers in the minor leagues over the last several seasons?

Espino has amassed nearly 1,000 innings between AA and AAA over the last seven seasons, registering an ERA around 3.70 with 8.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. The strikeout to walk ratio is indeed rather shiny, but the ERA doesn’t really jump off the page. Fortunately we’ve got a few other statistics that should better illustrate just how good Espino has been:

Espino’s modest ERA hides the fact that he has thoroughly dominated the upper levels of the minor leagues over a number of seasons. Since 2011, he’s been worth nearly a whopping 28 WARP (!!!) during his time between AA and AAA, posting a DRA- of 90 (or 10 percent better than league average) or worse just three times in nine stops between the various affiliates. By DRA and cFIP, Espino has not once been a below average pitcher for his league in each of the last six years. Last season at AAA may have been the best of his career, as only one pitcher (Ty Blach of the Giants) out of 1,276 that made at least a single appearance on the mound was more valuable than Paolo Espino’s 7.01 wins above replacement player.

Eye-popping statistics aside, what does Espino challenge batters with on the mound? Scouting reports for Paolo on the internet are scarce, but his work in spring training for the Brewers this month finally provided some PITCHf/x data for us to dive into. According to his Brooks Baseball page, Espino showed off a diverse arsenal of five pitches during spring training: a rising and riding four-seam fastball, a sinker, changeup, slider, and a big-breaking 12-6 curveball. His hard stuff sits in that 88-92 MPH range and he does a good job throwing his changeup from a nearly identical release point as his sinker. Most impressive, however, is his Uncle Charlie; the -9.32 inches of vertical break that occurs when he snaps off a curve would have ranked 19th-best among the 569 pitchers who threw at least 200 curveballs in the big leagues last year.

Though he’s not a hard thrower, Espino’s Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA) data indicates that he has long possessed elite command of his cache of pitches. As Zach Davies and Kyle Hendricks have illustrated through their big league success, one can be a thoroughly above-average MLB pitcher even if his repertoire and velocity doesn’t strike fear into the hitter, as long as he can consistently place his pitches where the batter cannot do damage.

Espino looked solid during his 10.0 innings of work on the big league side of camp this spring, yielding four earned runs (3.60 ERA) with an 8:2 K/BB ratio before getting reassigned to the minor leagues. He’ll almost assuredly open the season in the rotation for the AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox, once again on the threshold of possibly receiving the most exciting phone call and news of his life. Top prospect stalwarts Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff may also be a part of that rotation, but as we saw last year when Junior Guerra was promoted over Jorge Lopez in May, if there is a need at the MLB level the organization won’t simply promote a top prospect unless they’ve earned it over other viable candidates.

Given the possibility of negative outcomes for more than a few of Milwaukee’s big league starting pitcher candidates, this may be the best situation that Paolo Espino has ever been in to finally receive that life changing call to The Show. PECOTA has already pegged him as a sturdy presence in the back of the rotation (projected 4.27 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 1.1 WARP in 131.7 innings), and given his pitching profile and statistical track record, it seems like all Paolo Espino has ever needed was a chance in order to prove he can actualize those projections at the game’s highest level.

Related Reading:
Camp Prospects
Independent League Signings
A Bullpen for 2017

One of the best parts about spring training is that many ballparks have PITCHf/x technology, which means that Brooks Baseball begins updating some player cards with data. This is a great chance to get an actual idea about what depth prospects throw, even taking the data with gigantic grains of salt (for example, there are relatively few pitches tracked during spring, which leaves open several debates about calibration and significance). Nevertheless, this is a tasty dish even with that giant grain of salt, so let’s take a chance to see what members of the Brewers bullpen camp are throwing.

Many of these arms are featured in previous BPMilwaukee spring stories, which only goes to show that we love our prospects here and hope they grab that big league cash. Among the most interesting minor leaguers are the aforementioned Kohlscheen and Espino, along with newly converted southpaw Nick Ramirez, and some surprises like Preston Gainey. Unfortunately, no 2017 data are yet available for Jon Olczak, Aaron Wilkerson, or even Tim Dillard.

The Brewers signed many minor league contracts during the 2016-2017 offseason, and in the wake of the Junior Guerra success story, it seemed as though GM David Stearns was looking to expand on the age-discrepancy-market. Several “non-prospects” thus joined camp, including Andrew Barbosa. The 6’8″ lefty does not have a fastball to match his size, which leads one to wonder if that 87-88 MPH riding fastball is surprising and deceptive coming from such a large frame. In the Eastern League in 2016, the southpaw struck out 36 of 154 batters faced during seven starts, leading a 3.50 Deserved Runs Average (DRA). Barbosa’s main question mark may be a flyball tendency.

Although it’s easy to focus on the new signings, Milwaukee also has a couple of aging “non-prospects” within their own system that have intriguing statistical performances. Stephen Kohlscheen is entering his second year in the Brewers organization, and will be working a level removed from the MLB during his age-28 season. The 6’6″ righty is currently working a fastball-slider combo of the bread-and-butter variety; the fastball is rising, and the slider’s vertical and horizontal movement is relatively short. Perhaps Kohlscheen will join Jacob Barnes as a true fastball-slider, meat-and-potatoes reliever. The 32.8 percent strike out rate, 3.94 K/BB, 2.26 DRA, and are worth another look.

Nick Ramirez’s story is by now well-known in spring camp, as the stalling first baseman shifted back to the mound to reclaim a previous college pitching role. Ramirez is now the best kind of longshot story as a player who will throw his first professional pitch at age-27. Thus far the PITCHf/x looks nice for the southpaw, who is flashing a lot of break on his fastball while also working on three off-speed offerings. Make no mistake about it, Ramirez has a long way to go to prove that he can retire professional batters, but as a left-handed pitcher he will undoubtedly receive as many chances as he needs to prove his strengths from the mound.

Among the competitors that saw time in the 2016 Brewers bullpen, the spring training stuff already looks like last year’s stuff. This is arguably a good thing, as it means that Jacob Barnes, Jhan Marinez, and Corey Knebel are ready to take the next step to preserve close ballgames in Milwaukee. Barnes has the most fascinating fastball/slider combination, so much so that I’d actually suggest describing his PITCHf/x mix as “cutter-screwball.” Looking at Barnes’s delivery and stuff, there does not appear to be a lot of room for deception, but yet the “fastball” nearly moves glove-side, which is very rare for right-handed pitchers (even rising fastballs usually have armside run). As a result of the unorthodox fastball, Barnes’s slider has more armside break compared to the fastball, which effectively makes it a screwball in practice. Barnes is so much fun to watch because he’s quite a throwback reliever, so Brewers fans must enjoy this hard, no-nonsense arsenal while it’s still around.

What’s striking about the Marinez, Knebel, and Barnes trio is that each reliever works in a completely different range. Marinez is a true sinker reliever, while Knebel throws a riding-running fastball, and Barnes has his little cutter. Meanwhile, Knebel changes it up with a huge curveball, while Barnes uses a much tighter arsenal in his cutter-screwball approach. Marinez also uses a slider, but his variation is quite different than Barnes’s; Marinez throws a much more traditional slider insofar as the pitch breaks approximately five inches gloveside (i.e., “away” from righty bats) from his fastball.

Finally, it’s interesting to see readings on Josh Hader’s fastball, as well as a much quieter delivery from the southpaw. Certainly, Hader is not rushing up that true-70 southpaw heat that he flashed during a short Arizona Fall League stint in 2015. Yet, if the lefty still works in the mid-90s, but a quieter delivery allows him to regain command and repeat his change up, that’s quiet a strong delivery if it allows Hader to stick as a starter. Less “exciting” and more “repetition” with a broader arsenal for Hader should be music to Brewers fans’ ears.

There’s a lot to watch in spring training, including PITCHf/x statistics, so enjoy March while you can: this is a great chance to get a look at depth prospects, and also associate some “stuff” measurements with minor league statistics later in the season.

Given the training camp nature of spring, it also allows us to catch our first glimpses of some of the top prospects littered throughout the minor league system. Split squad games and non-roster invitations allow ample opportunity for farmhands to show their wares in major league games, which have more often been televised or broadcast on the radio in recent years. Even with the massive grain of salt that should be taken based on the paragraph above, it’s difficult not to engender some enthusiasm when a prospect shows off his tools during spring games. With that said, let’s take a look at some of the Milwaukee Brewers’ prospects who have shown well during the first two or so weeks of spring training game action:

Lucas Erceg
Milwaukee’s 2nd-round pick in last year’s draft, Erceg isn’t officially a part of big league camp but has been loaned from the minor league side several times and seen plenty of game action. In six games thus far he’s taken 11 at-bats while working a 1.500 OPS. He’s slugged two balls over the fence already and driven in seven while showing off his rocket arm at third base. Check out where this ball lands.

Jesus Aguilar
While he’s no longer technically a prospect, Aguilar has only 64 MLB plate appearances on his ledger in parts of three seasons and has yet to establish himself in the big leagues. The Brewers claimed the hulking first baseman off waivers in early February to give him a shot at earning a spot on the bench as a right handed power hitter and backup to lefty Eric Thames. Given his lack of positional versatility, the out-of-options Aguilar needed his bat to do some serious talking if he’s going to make the team out of camp. So far, so good, as Aguilar has scorched opposing pitchers to the tune of a .474/.524/.842 slash in 19 at-bats with two home runs. You can read more about his profile in this BPMilwaukee feature by Dylan Svoboda.

Ryan Cordell
The subject of one of yesterday’s features on BP Milwaukee, the PTBNL from the Jonathan Lucroy trade is making a strong impression during his first camp with Milwaukee. He’s already appeared in 10 games and in 15 at-bats has posted a 1.279 OPS while showing power (one homer), patience (six walks), and versatility in the outfield. He’ll likely begin the season in AAA, but Cordell has already earned praise from the big league manager.

Ryan Cordell is making an impression. CC: "He’s probably a little farther along than I expected, closer to the big leagues than I expected."

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) March 8, 2017

Lewis Brinson
Ranked as Milwaukee’s #1 overall prospect, expectations are high for the 22 year old center fielder. He’s looked solid so far this spring playing center field while batting .273/.333/.455 across 22 at-bats. He’s stolen a base and shown off some impressive opposite-field power.

Mauricio Dubon
The 22 year old shortstop isn’t quite as polished as the other players we’ve discussed so far, as he just reached AA for the first time last year for a 62 game stint. After getting dealt to the Brewers over the winter, he’ll return to that level to start the 2017 season with Biloxi. Dubon has been a bit over-matched at the plate, collecting only two hits in 11 at-bats while striking out three times, but he’s flashed impressive leather already on several occasions while manning the shortstop position. Here’s his incredible play from yesterday’s game against the Padres.

Josh Hader
Even though he’s ranked by BaseballProspectus as the best Brewers pitching prospect, there are still questions about whether Hader will be able to remain as a starter long-term. To answer those doubts, he’s working diligently to master his “messed-up circle change” grip to give him a third offering along with his dominant fastball/slider combination. Thus far during the spring, Hader has been working in the 92-96 MPH range and touched 97 (per Brooks Baseball) while allowing just one earned run in 4.7 innings with a 5:2 K/BB ratio.

Paolo Espino
Despite possessing a rather strong minor league track record (3.63 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 in 426.7 innings at AAA), the 30 year old Espino has never gotten a shot at the big leagues while previously with the Indians and Nationals organizations. Espino is in camp as a non-roster invitee and is likely ticketed for the Sky Sox rotation to begin the year, but he’s been impressive during his couple of looks this spring. He’s brandishing a five pitch mix (rising four seamer, sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball), sitting 88-92 MPH with his hard stuff and has yet to allow a run through a team-high 6.0 innings. He’s allowed just one hit, walked two and has whiffed four opposing batters. Perhaps he’s a candidate to become this year’s version of #2016BrewersAce Junior Guerra.

Stephen Kohlscheen
A former 45th-round pick by the Mariners (2010) who has previously spent time in Seattle’s and San Diego’s farm systems, Kohlscheen joined the Brewers on a minor league deal last year and was lights-out at AA Biloxi’s closer, posting a 2.54 ERA and 67:17 K/BB ratio with 23 saves across 49.7 innings pitched. His 12.1 K/9 last season was tops among Brewer farmhands (minimum 40 IP) and helped him earn another minor league deal with Milwaukee for 2017 that included an invite to big league camp. Thus far Kohlscheen has worked two scoreless appearances spanning 3.3 innings that have included just one hit allowed, no walks, and three punch-outs. He’s been throwing a rising fastball in the 92-94 MPH range along with a hard slider that sits 85-88 MPH. The 28 year old has never appeared in the big leagues, but given the Brewers wide-open bullpen situation, if he doesn’t break camp with the big league club he stands out as a candidate to receive a call-up at some point during the year.