PECOTA is projecting a third place tie this year in the NL Central for our local nine, pegging them to win 76 games along with the St. Louis Cardinals. That would be an improvement over last year’s total of 73 wins and hopefully portend to the fact that this is truly a team on the rise, one that could be legitimately competing for at least a Wild Card in the not-too-distant future. But for as bright as the future of the Brew Crew may look, getting to the playoffs will ultimately depend on how well their team stacks up against the rest of the organizations in the division. So, let’s take this opportunity to run around the NL Central and see how each team’s future stacks up by comparing top ten prospects and 2017 PECOTA projections.

Chicago Cubs
2016: 103-58
2017 PECOTA: 91-71

It’s hard to argue against the fact that the defending World Series Champion Cubs are the juggernaut of the division. They were the best team in baseball last year and have the second-highest projected win total in the National League for 2017 according to PECOTA. The Cubs have a core of young stars in place at the MLB level, lead by Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Addison Russell, that should anchor their lineup for through at least the end of the decade. Since they’ve graduated a myriad of first-division players in recent years and spent prospect capital to supplement last year’s championship team, the farm system is now more ‘good’ than it is ‘great’. With the current group in place in The Show, however, the Cubs farm system needn’t necessarily produce stars in the next few years to be helpful to the franchise, as long as they can utilize those pieces in trade scenarios and be able to produce decent depth in an injury scenario. Having the ability to put together $180+ million payrolls won’t hurt, either. The Cubs are going to be around for a long time, and serve as the most daunting impediment to the future dynasty that Slingin’ David Stearns is trying to build.

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Pittsburgh Pirates
2016: 78-83
2017 PECOTA: 81-81

The Pirates regressed big time last year after consecutive seasons of 94, 88, and 98 victories, riding a slightly above-average offense and slightly below-average pitching staff to a mere 78 wins and a third place finish in the division. Injuries didn’t help, and neither did the sudden implosion of former MVP Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates neglected to bring in any real help this winter and will instead hope for a bounceback from Cutch as he heads to right field and for positive contributions from top prospects on the cusp Josh Bell, Tyler Glasnow, and Austin Meadows. The farm system isn’t all that exciting beyond those three (with the exception of maybe Mitch Keller), but Glasnow and Meadows are considered truly elite prospects and the collective “likely” grades of their top 10 should at least give the system a solid floor. While an 81 win projection may put them within spitting distance of the Wild Card race, Pittsburgh has already seen how heartbreaking that road can be. The Pirates may have missed their best window to truly compete for a championship.

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St. Louis Cardinals
2016: 86-76
2017 PECOTA: 76-86

The Cardinals had another winning season last year, though they narrowly missed qualifying for the playoffs as a Wild Card by one game. That’s not to say the year was without some tumult, however. Kolten Wong (who signed a five-year extension prior to the season) and Randal Grichuk, once thought of as long-term anchors in the lineup, both struggled so mightily that they were banished to the minors for a time and now face questions about their long-term viability. The pitching staff was a mess, with large regressions in run prevention from Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake, Jaime Garcia, Michael Wacha, and Trevor Rosenthal. Guys like Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta, and Matt Carpenter aren’t getting any younger. Alex Reyes is perhaps the best pitching prospect in the game and looks like he’ll be a real contributor as soon as next season, but beyond that there doesn’t appear to be much impact depth coming in the near future to replace the aging All-Stars currently on the roster. Unless the Cardinals can conjure up some Devil Magic and have a few of their prospects outperform projections, St. Louis might be heading toward some lean years (relatively speaking, of course).

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Cincinnati Reds
2016: 68-94
2017 PECOTA: 74-88

The Reds, in my mind, are an example of how NOT to run a rebuild for your ballclub. The team’s trades of their two most valuable assets – Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier – were both widely panned. The Jay Bruce trade yielded an MLB ready, potentially league-average middle infielder in Dilson Herrera, who has nowhere to play because Zack Cosart, Brandon Phillips, and Eugenio Suarez are all still in the fold. There doesn’t appear to be any future stars down in the farm system, and even though the Reds have a decent collection of prospects it is still arguably the worst minor league system in the division (though January’s trade of Dan Straily to the Marlins did return a high-octane, 60 OFP/50 likely arm in Luis Castillo who helps things a smidge). Joey Votto is still here and still awesome (even though a large contingent of Reds’ fans refuse to admit it) but this team is projected for last place in the division and with a farm system that is the poorest among their NL Central foes. Can you rebuild a rebuild?

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Milwaukee Brewers
2016: 73-89
2017 PECOTA: 76-86

The Brewers improved from 68 wins in 2015 to 73 wins in 2016, all while continuing to ship out veteran players in exchange for impact prospects. PECOTA sees continued improvement to 76 wins next season, and with only modest contributions from the top prospects down in the minor leagues (156 PA for Lewis Brinson, 26.0 IP for Josh Hader). Milwaukee looks like they’ve found keepers where they may not have necessarily been looking in Jonathan Villar and Zach Davies, and Junior Guerra, Domingo Santana, and Keon Broxton could add themselves to that list this season if they can prove their smaller sample sizes last year were no fluke. Milwaukee has a truly elite prospect in Brinson and another one near that level in Hader, and their system boasts the most 60+ OFP prospects in the division. Eight of Milwaukee’s top 10 prospects are expected to arrive within the next two years, so if one of the current MLB players flames out, there should be a hungry minor leaguer right there to take their place. The Brewers rebuild has been almost universally praised, and it should be. While the system may not have the top end pieces like Pittsburgh, there is almost an extreme amount of depth and when you have THAT many legitimate prospects, the chances are a much better that a few of them will hit their 90th percentile outcomes. The Brewers may not be ready for a playoff run in 2017, but they’ve probably got the best chance of the divisional teams to unseat the Cubs from their throne come 2018-19.

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Anyhow, in 2012 Cleveland was baaaaad. GM Chris Antonetti was working his second full season on the job, having taken over for the recently promoted President Mark Shapiro. What’s interesting, though, is that the club was bad at the beginning of a potential contending cycle, with a group of players that were not really prospects but not necessarily established MLB players yet. Here I’m thinking of Jason Kipnis (then 25), Michael Brantley (25), Ezequiel Carrera (25), Jeanmar Gomez (24), Zach McAllister (24 — okay, he was a rookie), and Lonnie Baseball (23). 26-year old Carlos Santana was practically an established veteran, and 29-year old Shin-Soo Choo was positively ancient by comparison. 26-year old Corey Kluber wouldn’t be in the plans until August. The rotation found its leaders in Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, two prime-age sinkerball righties still trying to find their respective identities (or, mechanics and command). Although I take that back; I saw Justin Masterson pitch at Progressive Field during his incredible no-off-speed stretch during the 2011 season, and it’s fair to say that amazing feat clearly established Masterson as a hard true-sinker lifer.

What leaps off the page is that fact that the Cleveland farm system was not necessarily renowned as a phenomenal depth of elite talent, and there was not necessarily a star on the big league roster either. Entering 2011, BP ranked the system within the Top 10 due to “few stars, crazy depth,” but by 2012 the system was in the bottom third of the league: “Maybe the most fascinating system in the game as they are loaded with toolsy Latin American kids who have yet to play a full-season. Explosive potential, but also the risk of it all turning into nothing” (headed by Francisco Lindor). Even some of the players that we’ve come to know as stars or everyday regulars (such as Michael Brantley or Corey Kluber) were not regarded as such as prospects; Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana might be the closest fit to that mold, and Lonnie Baseball arguably missed his prospect “hype” by that measure. So, the point here is not necessarily that Cleveland had a bad system, but perhaps a system that was “just deep” or “just volatile” and not necessarily on the verge of producing a gang of bona fide stars.

In almost every way, the 2012 Cleveland Nine were finding their respective footing. It’s fun to look back at this, because we know that Lonnie Baseball endured long enough to hit a dope postseason homer a handful of years later, or that Jason Kipnis indeed morphed into a strong bat, Michael Brantley entered the PTBNL Hall of Fame, and Corey Kluber would morph from organizational depth to pure ace. I swear, I’ve checked five times already, Kluber did not enter the BP Top 20 in the Cleveland system prior to 2011 or 2012, despite a ceiling that had 25.0 WARP in there somewhere.

Each of these players would become crucial components of the 2013 improvement:

• Kluber was suddenly worth 4.0 WARP in his first full season.
• Ubaldo Jimenez turned 6.29 DRA into 2.84 DRA to threaten 5.0 WARP. Justin Masterson bested him by going 2.34 DRA.
• Zach McAllister went in the opposite direction, improving his runs prevention despite a 5.48 DRA.
• The less-established bats turned in modest improvements, and where they did not improve they did not really, truly bomb.
• Rookie Danny Salazar and newcomer Yan Gomes absolutely stormed the scene (6.5 aggregate WARP!).
• The bullpen itself was not great at the back end, but featured some guys named Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen that were building up their resumes to eventually star in a Pennant Winning Lockdown Pen.

When you can’t afford to spend your way out of (or through) a rebuild like the Cubs (or Dodgers), this type of ballclub is the next best thing. Cleveland rode a fluctuating farm system, trusting their own guys when external observers did not necessarily see surefire prospects, or even trusting their own guys when top system prospects turned into middle-of-the-road regulars. Better yet, this was a club without a top rated pedigree that improved as a unit of players that were relatively unestablished and ready to forge an identity. Neverbuilding, nothing but loyalty and audacity.

For what it’s worth, PECOTA had Cleveland slated to go 80-82 and finish second in the 2013 American League Central (BP got the second place correct!). It should not be surprising that I’m going to point out that the 2017 Brewers’ PECOTA rank of 76 wins is not terribly different from a middling 80 win expectation, nor are the expectations for these Brewers: Ryan Braun is the only star. There are a group of mediocre right-handed pitchers that need to make a name for themselves in 2017 (although Wily Peralta already flashed signs that he was ready to do so at the end of 2016). The top of the rotation is a whole bunch of nothing, what between a CSAA-genius like Zach Davies and Best-Splitter-In-Baseball Junior Guerra. Even the position players kind of look unassuming, with some luster-wearing-off sluggers like Domingo Santana, a glove-first shortstop, and this aggressive set of burners like Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez, and Keon Broxton (to name a few).

Not unlike the 2013 Cleveland Nine, though, these guys are playing for their careers. They are playing to fight for roles, or to establish a brand of play at the game’s highest level. This is the very best type of team to watch, and I say that knowing full well a 76-win PECOTA could turn into 71 wins on the field with this group. That would not necessarily be a terrible outcome depending upon the development strides made on the club.

But in the age of the “tank,” where fans clamor to give their money to owners ready to field terrible teams for several years while sitting on piles of revenue, it’s good to remember that sometimes a 68-win club is a 94-win club; you just weren’t seeing it the right way that first time around. In the non-linear reality of player development and hunting for careers, there is no stopping a gang of nobodies with speed to burn everyone in their paths. If that aggression forges the right path, perhaps Jon Lester’s yips will get to make a playoff start against Villar and the gang that nobody but Cleveland saw coming.

The St. Louis Cardinals are projected for the exact same win total as the Brewers, which immediately jumps off the screen. Without too much digging into the reasoning, it seems PECOTA is extremely down on the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Not a single pitcher is projected for over 2 WARP. Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez are projected for particularly pessimistic outputs. Martinez has posted 6.7 WARP over the last two seasons and yet is projected for just 1.7 in 2017. Wacha is projected for just 0.3 WARP, although only in 132 innings. Even his most favorable, 90^th percentile projection only suggests about 2 WARP, a dark outlook on Wacha’s future even while keeping in mind his disappointing 2016 season, in my eyes. There are, of course, other factors going into this seemingly negative projection for the Cardinals. When stepping back and looking at the Red Birds roster and looking at the history of the Cardinals as an organization, it probably wouldn’t be wise to project the Brewers to break into the top three of the National League Central ahead of St. Louis, despite what PECOTA says.

The PECOTA projections are nowhere near as generous to Eric Thames as Fangraphs’ various projection systems are. PECOTA sees him more like the player he was in his first stint in the major-leagues. He is projected for a .694 OPS and  -0.2 WARP. A grim outlook for sure. Steamer projects Thames for an .865 OPS and 2.3 WAR. The answer to questions like these always lies somewhere in the middle. In all likelihood Thames ends up in the 1.5-2 WARP range, which would be more than a bargain when considering his 3-year $16-million dollar contract.

The PECOTA projection very much believes in Orlando Arcia, as if Brewers fans weren’t already excited enough about their former top prospect. He is projected for 2.4 WARP in just his age-23 season, one of the top projections for position players 23 or younger. Most of his value is tied into his outstanding defense, so any improvement on the offensive side will deem him a superstar. He is projected for just a .241 TAv in 2017. Arcia’s long-term forecast is even more encouraging. He is projected for over 3 WARP all the way through the 2026 season, again tied mostly to his defense. Orlando Arcia is likely going to be a rock solid shortstop for years to come even if his bat doesn’t exactly light the earth on fire.

PECOTA sees the Tyler Thornburg as highway robbery when looking at just Travis Shaw alone, even before taking into account Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington. Shaw is projected for 2 WARP in 2017 and over 2 WARP every year until 2024. Shaw is going to get a shot to show off the skillset he flashed in the first half of 2016 and in parts of 2015. He is an above-average third basemen in time where teams are realizing more and more exactly how important defense on the left side of the infield is. PECOTA expects him to hit over 20 home runs and hold his own on the base paths. It seems as though the spotlight in Boston overshadowed how solid Shaw is as a player. He lit the American League up the first few months of 2016 and everyone thought he was going to be a star. When he fell off that unsustainable cliff, he was written off. When you take a step back and look at the last couple years of Shaw’s, you can see the makings of an incredibly useful player.

PECOTA is down on the Brewers 2017 pitching staff. It doesn’t buy Zach Davies’s breakout 2016 season. They see his 90^th percentile output for the 2017 season as worse off than how his 2016 season played out. He is the only starting pitcher projected for over 1 WARP. Matt Garza is projected for 0.1 WARP. Junior Guerra is projected for just 0.9 WARP, although over only 109 innings. The bullpen would be atrocious if it followed the projections. It’s projected for just 2.5 WARP as a whole and that’s with a generous innings count.

Overall, there weren’t too many surprises when it came to the Brewers. Certainly not on the level of surprise Cardinals fans saw. On the position player side, I think the Brewers would be ecstatic if 2017 played out like PECOTA says it will. On the pitching side, not so much. The Brewers are hoping to build some sort of foundation out of pieces on the current major-league roster as far as pitching goes and PECOTA is betting against that. Let’s hope otherwise.

Therefore, this selection of Peralta appears to be designed to give a struggling young pitcher some confidence. It reinforces the organization’s faith and makes clear to Peralta that he will be given every opportunity to succeed. After all, his 4.20 DRA in 2014 is the lowest mark he’s posted since his cup of coffee in 2012.

But is that confidence well-placed? Peralta has garnered a reputation as high-upside and as a breakout candidate because of his pre-2013 pedigree. He was a BP Top 101 prospect in both 2012 and 2013, and he had a brief appearance in the major leagues at the end of the 2012 season. His five September starts were very impressive: 28 innings, seven runs, and 22 strikeouts. He carried the Brewers to their 18-10 September record and boosted many fantasy teams in their stretch run. The memories of this month have continued to follow him, even after the last few years.

PECOTA is generally pessimistic about Peralta’s 2016, which is not a surprise. Three years of poor performance tends to have that effect on a pitcher’s projection, and the result for this upcoming season is not great. His projections of a 0.8 WARP and 4.58 DRA do not paint a pretty picture; instead of a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a heavy sinker who can occasionally dominate, the Brewers are looking at a fifth starter who will fight to stay in the big leagues.

However, to me, the most concerning aspect of Peralta’s PECOTA projection is how exactly his peripherals break down. Projections do not have to be exact mirrors of past performance and career levels; if they were, they would be basically useless and indistinguishable from the back of a baseball card. Instead, they are also supposed to capture improvement and regression, which indicates some level of uncertainty.

We see this in certain other players’ projections. On the Brewers alone, both Taylor Jungmann and Jimmy Nelson are expected to perform differently than their projections. Nelson’s 2016 projected DRA is nearly one-fifth of a run lower than his career mark, and Jungmann’s is about half of a run higher. This is generally to be expected—projections are less certain for players with short track records.

And while Peralta still seems young and full of potential, he isn’t really. PECOTA is not optimistic about his chances this season, and not in a way that projects any sort of uncertainty or variability. It expects Peralta to be exactly the same mediocre pitcher he’s been up until this point.

Peralta’s career DRA is 4.61; his 2016 projection is 4.58. His career strikeout rate 6.3 per nine innings; his 2016 projection is 6.5. And his career walk rate is 3.2 per nine innings, while his 2016 projections is 3.0.

The implications of this are not encouraging. His subpar performance up to this point has a disappointment, but PECOTA clearly has seen enough. Obviously, a positive projection would have been the best-case scenario, but even a volatile one would have been encouraging, as it would have meant that at least a part of the jury was still out.

But that is not what we see. Instead, PECOTA sees Peralta as a pitcher who has already demonstrated what he is at the big league level. He is no longer a young starter full of potential but rather a back-of-the-rotation arm who will have to reach his seventy-fifth percentile projection just to reach 2.0 WARP. This is not the type of starter the Brewers will want to entrust their Opening Day to, and it is not the type of pitcher the Brewers are going to be able to rely on for the next few years.

That’s not to say that it’s a completely stripped mine–in fact, if you’re in a deep league or a year-to-year dynasty league, knowing the Brewers might be the difference between building a competitive team and slapping together a bottom-feeder. I haven’t nicknamed David Stearns “The Thrift-Shop GM” on Twitter this off-season for no reason–a lot of the pieces he’s assembled for the 2016 club are basically worthless to shallow-league players, but potentially invaluable in more competitive formats.

Relevant in Daily, NL-Only, and/or 14+ Team Leagues

Josh Hader

Speculating on relief pitchers sucks, but in the deepest of leagues it’s an essential grind. And if you want to bet on a reasonable long shot for the Brewers’ closer job, Josh Hader is a damn good value bet. Will Smith and/or Jeremy Jeffress will likely get the first crack at the job–but it’s not like Craig Counsell rushed to endorse either one of them immediately, or even eventually, after the K-Rod trade. In fact, I’d be lying if I said that he didn’t seem reluctant to move either of them into the role. Questions about his eventual role have plagued Hader since he turned pro, and he certainly has done well enough as a starter up to this point, but both the Blue Jays and Cardinals have, in recent years, plugged a prospect with success as a starter into their closer role and seen him thrive–Roberto Osuna last year, and Trevor Rosenthal before that. Hader could fill those shoes this summer, if he gets the chance.

Zach Davies

“He’s likely to be worth a $2-3 investment in NL-only leagues in 2016 as he has a good shot at a rotation spot, but the upside isn’t much better year-to-year.”

That’s what Bret Sayre wrote about Davies in early December, for the Brewers’ Top Ten Prospects. Then, the team brought in Chase Anderson and reaffirmed their commitment to un-breaking Matt Garza, and that “good shot at a rotation spot” turned into “a ticket to Colorado Springs that’s been all but punched.” If the pitching staff is really bad, or really injured, Davies won’t kill you as short-term roster filler. But if you want to win at fantasy baseball, you should probably be doing better than this.

Orlando Arcia

Arcia is the team’s top prospect–when he gets his call, it will be one of the most exciting moments of 2016 for the Milwaukee faithful. Arcia’s a special talent, and he could hold down the middle of the infield for quite a while. Unfortunately, he’s not quite as exciting in fantasy circles. His primary contribution is in the field–and while he’s not likely to grow into a hitless wonder-type, his bat is too raw and unimposing to make him worth redraft consideration yet. Shortstop is a tough position to fill though, and he’s going to hit at the big-league level eventually, so in dynasty leagues Arcia is a great high-floor prospect with the potential to grow into more.

Jorge Lopez

Lopez’s walk-happy tendencies hold him back from the ranks of the elite pitching prospects, and his late-season audition with the big club was a bumpy ride, but Lopez is right on the cusp of the big leagues and he’s got the stuff to be a fantasy-relevant starting pitcher someday. His electric fastball is complimented by a much-improved curve and a good changeup and, unlike Davies, Lopez will miss plenty of bats at the big-league level. He’s a risky proposition this year, but in deep enough leagues his high payoff just might be worth taking the chance.

Wily Peralta

It’s put up or shut up time for Peralta, whose perplexing collapse was emblematic of the franchise’s 2015 season. Peralta saw his velocity leak across the board, and his concurrent results were absolutely disastrous. Nobody’s drafting Peralta in 2016, but before last year’s lost season he was a reliable one-win-above-replacement pitcher. NL-only owners will want to watch Peralta closely over his first couple of starts. If his velocity returns to pre-2015 levels, there’s profit to be made here. If he’s still struggling to generate power, though, walk away calmly but confidently.

Rymer Liriano

Liriano is off the radar of standard leagues at this point–he’s just not going to play enough to justify the investment. But that could change if the team miraculously finds a suitor for Ryan Braun–Liriano’s power and speed could make him invaluable. Of course, his AVG and/or OBP could make him the other kind of invaluable, too. But that’s sort of how it goes with post-hype prospects. In the meantime, he’s a name that every DFS addict should know–he won’t play enough to get expensive, but his power/speed skills make him a potentially huge value when he draws a spot start with a favorable matchup.

Potential Busts and Players to Avoid

Aaron Hill

PECOTA Projection: .254/.309/.395, 13HR, 7SB, .3WARP

Outlook: It has officially been four years since Hill was a 6.8-win player. He missed 63 games in 2013 with a fractured hand, but Hill has been healthy for two seasons now, and during those two seasons he has been worth less than a single win. Could it be that the Diamondbacks were stubbornly overlooking him in a sad display of ageism? I mean, yeah, maybe. But it’s far more likely that the 34-year-old Hill has simply lost the magic. To that point: he stole 14 bases in 2012, and has stolen 12 since. Also to that point: Hill’s BABIP and ISO are trending downward at alarming annual rates, and his batted ball profile indicates a deteriorating ability to recognize off-speed and breaking pitches. I’m not saying a bounce-back is impossible, but look at it this way: the Brewers bet on him because they didn’t have to give up a single asset to do so, and he was the only option that Arizona would so willingly part with in that deal. Unless you’re in a 32-team league, there’s really no good reason for you to follow suit.

Matt Garza

PECOTA Projection: 4.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 3.03 BB/9, 6.79 K/9, 1.19 HR/9, .7 WARP

Outlook: Ryan Romano speculated that Garza is going to be the pitching staff’s weak link this season, and I have to agree with him. His 2015 collapse seemingly came out of nowhere, but the warning signs were all there in retrospect. From 2012 to 2014, Garza steadily lost velocity off of his hard pitches, and his breaking pitches have been losing their effectiveness since two years before that. (Don’t be fooled by that uptick on his slider in 2015--he threw the pitch far less often than ever before.) In fact, Garza’s demise was foretold in the 2015 BP Annual:

“When Garza’s home run rate dips below 1.0 HR/9, he posts an ERA under 3.80. When it’s above 1.0 HR/9, he posts an ERA above 3.80. That has held true for every season since he started 30 games for the first time in 2008 with the Rays. This year, his home run rate was only 0.7 HR/9 and his ERA was subsequently 3.64. Easy enough, right? More happened beneath the surface, though, which indicates some decline in effectiveness. His fastball velocity has dropped a mile per hour over the past two years. His swinging-strike rate fell to 8.9 percent, which is below the league average for starting pitchers. Similarly, his strikeout rate plummeted to a mere 19 percent, also worse than league average. It appears his success is beginning to be tied more intimately to his overall BABIP and home run rates, which can fluctuate significantly from year to year. He found success when both were below his career average. If either ticks up, this could get ugly now that he lacks strong peripherals for ballast.”

This is a legitimate decline, not an off year, and thirtysomething pitchers on a steep downhill skid rarely manage to recover. You should look for rebound value elsewhere. And if Garza spins off a couple of nice starts in April? Don’t be fooled–this is likely just what economists refer to as the dead cat bounce.

Taylor Jungmann

PECOTA Projection: 4.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3.61 BB/9, 7.55 K/J9, 1.05 HR/9, .9 WARP

Outlook: Jungmann is an enigma at this point in his career–will we see the precociously gifted pitcher of his debut, or the train wreck that was September?  While Jungmann is only being taken in 5% of Yahoo drafts so far this year, it’s clear that people are reaching for him in deep leagues. On average, he’s getting taken early in the 23rd round–ahead of Daniel Norris, Matt Moore, and Kris Medlen, all of whom have better stuff than Jungmann.

This is an especially painful section for me to write, because I like Taylor Jungmann as a player. His early stumbles as a prospect make him a fun underdog to root for, and since then he’s shown an ability to outfox hitters into higher strikeout totals than he deserves. But fantasy baseball is about value, not playing your favorites, and Jungmann is sitting atop an inflationary bubble right now because of his age and his last season. Don’t be the guy who overpays for him.

Potential Sleepers

Jonathan Villar

PECOTA Projection: .240/.300/.370, 9HR, 33SB, 1.3WARP

Outlook: “Cheap speed guys” are a classic fantasy baseball trope. They don’t hit much, or for much power, they tend to stick to the bottom of the order, their counting stats are nothing to get excited about–overall, the picture is a pretty bleak one. But stolen bases are ten percent of a 5×5 league. If you’re not punting saves, maybe you can recover–but if you’re losing that category week in and week out, then your closers crap the bed, too? You’ll be amazed just how hard you have to struggle just to remain in sixth place. Villar is available in your league for nothing, or next to it, and he should be good for more than a stolen base per week. Plus, he’s got three built-in advantages over the traditional Cheap Speed Guy archetype. First, his career ISO mark of .117 suggests that he can slug double-digit home runs if given regular playing time–he’s still cheap, and a speed guy, but he’s got more punch than you’d expect. Second, the Brewers not only intend to give him regular playing time–they have no urgent need to compete, and if he struggles they have every reason to see him through those struggles instead of just writing him off. And perhaps most importantly, I’d bet on David Stearns re-trading Aaron Hill this summer, promoting Arcia, and playing Villar at third base. That dual eligibility would make him even more sneaky-valuable down the stretch.

Jeremy Jeffress

PECOTA Projection: 3.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.38 BB/9, 8.50 K/9, 1.125 HR/9, 10SV, .4 WAR

Outlook: First, take note of this:

Will Smith, Jeremy Jeffress both will get shots at closing games for Brewers: Manager Craig Counsell confirmed… https://t.co/KYhLFL1hBn

— JSOnline – Brewers (@js_brewers) March 16, 2016

Now, take a look at the Yahoo draft stats for Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress. Smith is going in 79% of drafts, in the 24th round on average. Jeffress is only getting taken in 7% of drafts, by contrast, and he’s going a full two rounds later. Even in auction drafts, Smith is getting taken 86 % of the time to Jeffress’ 9%. If you’re looking for the better pitcher, Smith is probably your man. But we don’t care about the better pitcher, we care about saves. And from the looks of it, they’ve got roughly equal shots at them. If you’re going to draft Smith, it makes sense to pick up Jeffress as soon as you possibly can. Otherwise, if Smith goes and you don’t have your relief corps fully drafted, lock onto Jeffress!

Keon Broxton

PECOTA Projection: .228/.300/.389, 4HR, 6SB, .1 WAR

Outlook: Broxton didn’t hold the inside lane for a starting job coming into Spring ball–but a strong performance in Arizona has caused him to jet ahead of Kirk Nieuwenhuis in the race for Opening Day. Broxton’s slash line is unorthodox–.348/.531/.391–but that’s what you get with the sample size of Spring ball. He’s not hitting for power, but he’s hitting and he’s taking an awful lot of walks, too. On top of that, Broxton has stolen six bases in fourteen games. The gaudy batting average is unlikely to stick, but the ability to steal bases–even first base, through working a difficult walk–is real, and should be respected. Broxton should get a chance to take up residence at the top of Milwaukee’s lineup, and he should be on your radar–he’s got the talent to do lots of good things in that role. Don’t let PECOTA’s mild outlook fool you–that’s still operating under the assumption that Nieuwenhuis is the primary starter. Broxton has got higher upside than Villar, but he plays a less valuable position.

Chris Carter

PECOTA Projection: .226/.317/.457, 27HR, 3SB, .8 WAR

Outlook: After four years in the big leagues, Chris Carter is what he is. He hits the ball hard (.235 career ISO), he whiffs like a windmill (33.4% career K-rate), he walks a respectable amount (.313 career OBP vs. .217 career AVG), and he’s not too good at first base but he won’t kill you in the field. So what makes this retread of a Houston non-tender so special? Simple. Milwaukee’s home ballpark is the third-friendliest to right handed power hitters in all the league, and Carter’s one elite skill is hitting for power. Two years ago, he slugged 37 home runs despite an average of just .227–and that was in Minute Maid Park, a pitcher-friendly ecosystem. This combination of skill and home environment make Carter arguably the biggest boom-or-bust play of your draft day. The downside: further BA erosion to below the Mendoza line and a loss of significant playing time. The upside: forty home runs.

Names You Need to Know (drafted in >50% of leagues)

Domingo Santana

2015 Stats: .231/.345/.421, 6HR, 2SB, .5 WAR

PECOTA Projection: .246/.329/.439, 19HR, 4SB, 1.3 WAR

Draft Rundown: 60% drafted on Yahoo, 256.3 ADP. 72% bought in auctions on Yahoo, average price $1. 28% owned on ESPN, 227.2 ADP and $1.30 average auction value.

Outlook: The outlook on Santana is perfectly summed up by his performance in Yahoo auction-style drafts–he’s getting taken in 71% of leagues, but his bidding price is going over $1 so infrequently as to be statistically insignificant. In non-dynasty formats, he’s a lottery ticket–but with a hell of a potential payoff. Houston’s George Springer, a player I have frequently compared Santana to, is a Top 50 pick coming into this season–while Santana’s speed is a touch less impressive than Springer’s, he should provide similar value once established. Still, you can’t discount the fact that the young and whiff-prone are dangerous fantasy investments. This baked-in risk limits him to the ranks of “endgame flier” for now, but he’s the type of endgame flier who might just end up covering your ass for a bad pick you made earlier. Taking risks on guys such as Santana are fine, so long as you don’t depend on them paying off.

Will Smith

2015 Stats: 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 12.9 K/9, .7 HR/9, 1.1 WAR

PECOTA Projection: 2.83 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 10.9 K/9, .9 HR/9, 20 SV, 1.1 WAR

Draft Rundown: 79% drafted on Yahoo, 236.6 ADP, 87% bought in auctions on Yahoo, average price $1.30. 52.8% owned on ESPN, 223.0 ADP and $1.20 average auction value.

Outlook: In some leagues, you speculate on potential saves. In others, you grab the saves that are out there. In the former, Smith is long gone. In the latter, he’s a sneaky endgame pick. Those 20 saves are assuming a partial timeshare with Jeffress (they’re projecting 10 saves for him, remember) and if he claims control of the closer role early on, that number could look conservative. Many will overlook Smith and the Brewers’ bullpen situation because the team was so terrible last year–this year, PECOTA expects them to be much more competitive. When you’re betting on closers I believe in the approach of betting on talent–and Smith’s gaudy strikeout numbers hint at a potential power reliever on par with what Aroldis Chapman and Greg Holland have done the past few years. Of course, if you’re going to draft him, I have to stress again–pick up Jeffress, too.

Jimmy Nelson

2015 Stats: 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.4 WAR

PECOTA Projection: 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 1.6 WAR

Draft Rundown: 99% drafted on Yahoo, 210.5 ADP, 99% bought in auctions on Yahoo, average price $1.10. Owned in 7.6% of leagues on ESPN, draft/auction value below threshold.

Outlook: Over on ESPN, Nelson isn’t even getting taken in the top 260. Even on Yahoo, where he’s ranked far more favorably, he’s still going for just a buck ten in auction formats. Such is life when you’re coming off of a season as Milwaukee’s only above-replacement-level starter. Nelson’s established presence on a weak Milwaukee rotation, combined with the complete lack of hype surrouding him, make him an ideal target for auction-drafters employing the LIMA Plan. Also, take note of Nelson’s steadily increasing velocity over last season. He won’t win twenty games, but he also won’t kill you in ERA or WHIP, and he’ll be surprisingly valuable in strikeouts. Just be wary of Nelson’s extreme platoon splits, and don’t be afraid to fade him if the opposing manager stacks lefties on him. Who says you can’t buy anything of value for a dollar these days?

Jonathan Lucroy

2015 Stats: .264/326/.391, 7HR, 1SB, 1.4 WAR

PECOTA Projection: .276/.336/.429, 15HR, 4SB, 3.7 WAR

Draft Rundown: 100% drafted on Yahoo, 104.2 ADP, 100% bought in auctions on Yahoo, average price $6.50. 98.4% owned on ESPN, ADP of 97.8 and average auction value of $10.10.

Outlook: At most positions, a year like Lucroy’s 2015 would be enough to crater a player’s draft stock. But thanks to an extended run of competence from 2010-2014 Lucroy is still the third catcher off the average draft board on Yahoo, and the second on ESPN. At arguably the most shallow position in the game, Lucroy adds a plus bat, plus power, and everyday playing time–the Brewers are going to still use him at first base on his days off. This is something fantasy owners should especially take note of–catchers are notorious for taking frequent off days, leaving a gaping hole in your lineup if you only have one on the roster. Plus, give it a few weeks and Lucroy will have 1B eligibility, too. That sort of thing is always nice to have when you’re trying to fit every active player into a lineup!

Ryan Braun

2015 Stats: .285/.356/.498, 25HR, 24SB, 2.4 WAR

PECOTA Projection: .286/.352/.502, 27HR, 19SB, 4.9 WAR

Draft Rundown: 100% drafted on Yahoo, 44.1 ADP, 100% bought in auctions on Yahoo, average price $25.20. 97.7% owned on ESPN, ADP of 75.5 and average auction value of $13.20.

Outlook: Braun is now two full years beyond his Lost Season–and while his MVP days are clearly behind him, he still looks like a dangerously consistent player. He’s racking up 2-3 wins per year instead of 6-7, and he’s no longer a 40-home-run threat, but Braun is a solid fantasy investment nonetheless. His draft stock has changed to reflect this too, though–especially on ESPN, where he can be had absurdly cheap. Another 20/20 season would not be a stretch at all for Braun, and for a late fourth-round pick that’s some pretty good value. Let the puritans cast their judgement on him–we play to win.

Brew Crew Ball || Catching Up With Milwaukee Brewers’ Prospect Gentry Fortuno (Feb. 24, 2016)

Kyle Lesniewski (@brewerfan28) catches up with pitching prospect Gentry Fortuno, who is entering his first full professional baseball season. The 18-year-old is not necessarily a widely-known name in the Brewers organization yet, but the Brewers’ 18th-round pick in last summer’s draft acquitted himself well with the Milwaukee’s Arizona League team, putting up a 1.89 ERA in 33.1 innings. Lesniewski’s interview with the young right-hander offers a fascinating level of insight into the offseason plans and the spring training regimen of one of the rank-and-file members of the organization, from whom we very rarely hear. Definitely worth the read.

Baseball Prospectus || Fifth Column: PECOTA Picks Philies to Win NL East (Feb. 23, 2016)

Michael Baumann (@MJ_Baumann) explains some of the math behind Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections by manipulating the percentages to try to get the Philadelphia Phillies, who are projected to win 65 games and finish in last place, into the playoffs with an NL East pennant. There was some hand-wringing when the projections were first released and, for the second consecutive year, they were down on the defending AL champion Royals. A lot of things went very, very right for the Royals last year, with a lot of players performing at a level that was much higher than could have reasonably been expected. So could Philadelphia win the NL East? Look, I once asked a woman out on a date and she agreed, so anything can happen, even if it isn’t likely. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try.

FanGraphs || Why We Hate The Diamondbacks (Feb. 25, 2016)

For whatever reason, there’s actually more to this article than simply having “Tony LaRussa” emblazoned across the screen in large, red letters. Apparently Dave Cameron (@DCameronFG) was feeling like an overachiever. Cameron responds to GM Dave Stewart’s remarks from earlier this week, in which he became very mad about computer projections, going so far as to imply that the computers that churn out the PECOTA projections might have a personal vendetta against the Diamondbacks for reasons only Keanu Reeves might be able to explain. The very mean computers weren’t impressed with the improvements the Diamondbacks made to this season’s roster, which is not a good sign because pretty much no one was impressed with the long-term ramifications Stewart’s moves this winter will have on the franchise.

FanGraphs || Grading The Offseason For All 30 Teams (Feb. 22, 2016)

Speaking of those moves, here’s more from Cameron, who grades the work each team did this winter. Now, as a rule I never trust a man with two first names, but here his opinions are blatantly and obviously correct, so we can take them at face value despite that. The aforementioned Diamondbacks came in with the league’s second worst grade, while the Brewers tied with the Cubs at the head of the class, as each team received an A from Professor Cameron.

UWM Post || Nine Positions in Nine Days: Analyzing the Starting Rotation for the Brewers (Feb. 25, 2016)

Wrapping up a two week series, Gabe Stoltz (@Stoltzy3) explores the state of the major league roster in the starting rotation for the UWM Post, UW-Milwaukee’s student newspaper. He explores some of the Brewers’ options for their Opening Day starter, including an interesting argument for Matt Garza, which I am not angry about at all (Comeback Player of the Year, folks).

For whatever reason, I wrote the team preview essay for the Brewers in this year’s Annual. Although the piece broadly analyzes the nature of innovation in baseball as a whole, the nominal topic is bases on balls, something which Milwaukee has lacked in recent years. Over the four seasons since Prince Fielder left via free agency, the Brewers rank 26th in the majors with a 7.0 percent walk rate. This alone hasn’t doomed them to obscurity — just read the damn essay already, if you want to know why — but it hasn’t helped their cause.

Things could change in 2016, however. According to the most recent iteration of PECOTA, the Brewers should garner free passes at an 8.0 percent clip — which would catapult them to 14th in all of baseball:

Milwaukee hasn’t ranked in the top half of the majors in walk rate since 2010, which would make this a pretty big development if it happened. But will it? Can the Brewers fulfill this projection, or will they fall short?

Well, these figures are incomplete — they don’t include pitchers. If Jimmy Nelson, Wily Peralta & Co. maintain their 1.9 percent walk rate from 2015 (which placed 13th in the National League), the Brewers will tumble a few spots in the major-league ranks. So perhaps we should temper our expectations a bit. Still, the players Milwaukee has acquired in the offseason, along with those they’ve sent away, suggest a legitimate change in approach.

Last July, Doug Melvin traded star center fielder Carlos Gomez to Houston. While the decision obviously hurt, it helped the team’s plate discipline. In his Brewers career, Gomez walked only 6.2 percent of the time. Meanwhile, the major-league-ready outfielder that the deal brought back, Domingo Santana, has the opposite skill set. Across his 145 Milwaukee plate appearances last season, Santana walked 12.3 percent of the time, after doing so in 10.8 percent of his chances as a farmhand. With Santana indirectly replacing Gomez, the Brewers should earn a few more bases on balls (and cost them many runs elsewhere, of course, but that’s beside the point).

After the season, David Stearns started some wheeling and dealing of his own. One of the players he sent away, first baseman Adam Lind, actually took a lot of walks last year. His 11.5 percent free-pass rate finished 21st among qualified hitters. That didn’t match up with his past accomplishments, however — before 2015, he’d walked in just 7.3 percent of his plate appearances — which explains why PECOTA projects a mere 8.5 percent figure for 2016.

Chris Carter, who should man the position in 2016, has a much rosier outlook, at least in terms of walks. PECOTA expects him to cruise down to first in 11.2 percent of his plate appearances, which jives with his career clip of 11.5 percent. While Carter clearly has his offensive flaws, of course, he possesses the ability to lay off pitches, which means he should take his share of free passes.

Perhaps the most intriguing piece of this puzzle came to the team in the Rule 5 Draft. Utility player Colin Walsh has even more warts than Santana or Carter — that explains why he’ll be a 26-year-old rookie this season, and why the Brewers were able to acquire him in the first place. Based on the direction of this article, you can probably guess where he excels. The extent of it, however, might surprise you.

Walsh has gone to the dish 2,452 times in his minor-league tenure. A total of 377 of those — or 15.3 percent — ended with a base on balls. For comparison: Joey Votto walked 13.4 percent of the time when he was in the minors. Obviously, Walsh won’t hit at that godlike level, nor will his plate discipline reign supreme above his contemporaries (and frustrate mythical executives). In fact, PECOTA thinks he’ll accrue only 98 plate appearances in 2016. If he does receive more playing time, though, he could make it count. For a club that has struggled to accumulate free passes, a 13.3 percent projected walk rate looks quite appealing.

We should make the distinction between taking walks and reaching base. PECOTA currently thinks the Brewers will rank 22nd in the majors with a .308 OBP, chiefly because they won’t earn too many hits (it predicts a 24th-place finish in batting average). Like many of their teammates, Santana, Carter, and Walsh each have problems with strikeouts, which have somewhat negated the walks and kept them from becoming truly valuable players.

With that said, a few more bases on balls do have some worth, especially for a franchise that has sorely missed them. Many fans would love it if, facing off against Jon Lester or Adam Wainwright, Brewers hitters took a more patient approach. The team has fallen behind the curve to a degree, but they still have time to catch back up.

The latter’s poor performance stood out, mostly due to the potential he possessed. He’d always featured a blazing four-seamer and sinker to go along with a biting slider and a respectable-enough changeup. Chiefly on the strength of that promising arsenal, in addition to the progress he made in 2014, PECOTA gave him the best chance of breaking out for 2015. Although his overall projection didn’t inspire much optimism — a 4.25 ERA would represent a significant downgrade from his 3.53 mark in the previous year — the chance for an explosion still remained.

The 4.72 ERA Peralta posted this season obviously didn’t amount to a breakout, and part of the reason for that was that he broke down. With a rib injury in May and an oblique ailment in September, he didn’t pitch at 100 percent for the majority of the season. We can’t really fault PECOTA for failing to foresee those. Past injuries predict future ones better than any other factor, and Peralta had a nearly sterling bill of health prior to 2015. But something else could have foretold the regression.

Jeff Long didn’t agree with PECOTA’s Peralta appraisal. Evaluating Peralta’s PITCHf/x profile in February for Baseball Prospectus, he concluded that the lack of distinctive movement on the righty’s offerings would hold him back. Peralta’s four-seamer, sinker, and changeup all resembled each other pretty closely in terms of bite, and the slider — unlike that of Tyson Ross, the counterexample Long cited — didn’t do enough to set itself apart. Did this uniformity help to doom Peralta’s 2015 effort?

Well, here’s the funny thing. Peralta actually did, to some extent, improve his pitch movement this year. His changeup picked up a little more run, and more importantly, his slider started darting down-and-away more, differentiating itself from his other pitches.

[NOTE: If the GIF is not working on your browser, click on the picture to view the changes.]

On average, Peralta’s 2014 sliders had 2.7 inches of rise and 0.8 inches of, well, slide. The former decreased to 0.6 inches in 2015, while the latter increased to 1.5. That change meant the movement difference between his slider and fastball went from 8.3 inches (good enough for 63rd in baseball, per Long’s article) to 9.6 inches, the 25th-largest gap in the majors.

Yet despite all of that, Peralta’s slider actually performed the worst out of all his primary pitches in 2015. While the four-seamer (5.4 percent in 2014, 4.2 percent in 2015) and sinker (7.8 percent in 2014, 6.2 percent in 2015) each saw their whiff rates decline a bit, the largest drop by far came from his slider, which went from 15.2 to 11.0 percent swinging strikes. Considering an average slider fools hitters about 13.0 percent of the time, this meant Peralta went from comfortably above to comfortably below the standard for success.

The cause of this doesn’t require much digging to find. Peralta’s slider velocity absolutely vanished this season:

Peralta went from 86.4 mph on the offering to 83.4 mph, a drop that took him from the 24th-best velocity to the 62nd-best. While his four-seamer and sinker also lost life, they did so to less than half this extent, falling about one-and-a-half mile per hour each.

Then-pitching coach Rick Kranitz told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel in August that “dead arm” could explain Peralta’s hardships. Since he spent so much time on the disabled list in June and July with that rib injury, he had a long time between outings, which could have interrupted his rhythm. Peralta himself said that mechanics — to which the long layoff would certainly apply as well — might have played a role. Whatever the cause, new pitching coach Derek Johnson will presumably work to restore Peralta’s heat for 2016, making sure that his decline here doesn’t indicate a broader trend.

If that does come to pass — Peralta regains his 96 mph four-seamer and 86 mph slider — we may finally see him take the next step. The Brewers hoped that Peralta would make the leap this season, but injuries prevented that from happening. With that said, the progress he made when he made it onto the mound portends well for his future. The movement similarities that sank him in 2014 appear to be a thing of the past; now, he just has to pair his 2015 bite with his once-deadly velocity, and he’ll take off.