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A Bullpen for 2017

One of the best parts about spring training is that many ballparks have PITCHf/x technology, which means that Brooks Baseball begins updating some player cards with data. This is a great chance to get an actual idea about what depth prospects throw, even taking the data with gigantic grains of salt (for example, there are relatively few pitches tracked during spring, which leaves open several debates about calibration and significance). Nevertheless, this is a tasty dish even with that giant grain of salt, so let’s take a chance to see what members of the Brewers bullpen camp are throwing.

Many of these arms are featured in previous BPMilwaukee spring stories, which only goes to show that we love our prospects here and hope they grab that big league cash. Among the most interesting minor leaguers are the aforementioned Kohlscheen and Espino, along with newly converted southpaw Nick Ramirez, and some surprises like Preston Gainey. Unfortunately, no 2017 data are yet available for Jon Olczak, Aaron Wilkerson, or even Tim Dillard.

The Brewers signed many minor league contracts during the 2016-2017 offseason, and in the wake of the Junior Guerra success story, it seemed as though GM David Stearns was looking to expand on the age-discrepancy-market. Several “non-prospects” thus joined camp, including Andrew Barbosa. The 6’8″ lefty does not have a fastball to match his size, which leads one to wonder if that 87-88 MPH riding fastball is surprising and deceptive coming from such a large frame. In the Eastern League in 2016, the southpaw struck out 36 of 154 batters faced during seven starts, leading a 3.50 Deserved Runs Average (DRA). Barbosa’s main question mark may be a flyball tendency.

Although it’s easy to focus on the new signings, Milwaukee also has a couple of aging “non-prospects” within their own system that have intriguing statistical performances. Stephen Kohlscheen is entering his second year in the Brewers organization, and will be working a level removed from the MLB during his age-28 season. The 6’6″ righty is currently working a fastball-slider combo of the bread-and-butter variety; the fastball is rising, and the slider’s vertical and horizontal movement is relatively short. Perhaps Kohlscheen will join Jacob Barnes as a true fastball-slider, meat-and-potatoes reliever. The 32.8 percent strike out rate, 3.94 K/BB, 2.26 DRA, and are worth another look.

Nick Ramirez’s story is by now well-known in spring camp, as the stalling first baseman shifted back to the mound to reclaim a previous college pitching role. Ramirez is now the best kind of longshot story as a player who will throw his first professional pitch at age-27. Thus far the PITCHf/x looks nice for the southpaw, who is flashing a lot of break on his fastball while also working on three off-speed offerings. Make no mistake about it, Ramirez has a long way to go to prove that he can retire professional batters, but as a left-handed pitcher he will undoubtedly receive as many chances as he needs to prove his strengths from the mound.

Among the competitors that saw time in the 2016 Brewers bullpen, the spring training stuff already looks like last year’s stuff. This is arguably a good thing, as it means that Jacob Barnes, Jhan Marinez, and Corey Knebel are ready to take the next step to preserve close ballgames in Milwaukee. Barnes has the most fascinating fastball/slider combination, so much so that I’d actually suggest describing his PITCHf/x mix as “cutter-screwball.” Looking at Barnes’s delivery and stuff, there does not appear to be a lot of room for deception, but yet the “fastball” nearly moves glove-side, which is very rare for right-handed pitchers (even rising fastballs usually have armside run). As a result of the unorthodox fastball, Barnes’s slider has more armside break compared to the fastball, which effectively makes it a screwball in practice. Barnes is so much fun to watch because he’s quite a throwback reliever, so Brewers fans must enjoy this hard, no-nonsense arsenal while it’s still around.

What’s striking about the Marinez, Knebel, and Barnes trio is that each reliever works in a completely different range. Marinez is a true sinker reliever, while Knebel throws a riding-running fastball, and Barnes has his little cutter. Meanwhile, Knebel changes it up with a huge curveball, while Barnes uses a much tighter arsenal in his cutter-screwball approach. Marinez also uses a slider, but his variation is quite different than Barnes’s; Marinez throws a much more traditional slider insofar as the pitch breaks approximately five inches gloveside (i.e., “away” from righty bats) from his fastball.

Finally, it’s interesting to see readings on Josh Hader’s fastball, as well as a much quieter delivery from the southpaw. Certainly, Hader is not rushing up that true-70 southpaw heat that he flashed during a short Arizona Fall League stint in 2015. Yet, if the lefty still works in the mid-90s, but a quieter delivery allows him to regain command and repeat his change up, that’s quiet a strong delivery if it allows Hader to stick as a starter. Less “exciting” and more “repetition” with a broader arsenal for Hader should be music to Brewers fans’ ears.

There’s a lot to watch in spring training, including PITCHf/x statistics, so enjoy March while you can: this is a great chance to get a look at depth prospects, and also associate some “stuff” measurements with minor league statistics later in the season.

Given the training camp nature of spring, it also allows us to catch our first glimpses of some of the top prospects littered throughout the minor league system. Split squad games and non-roster invitations allow ample opportunity for farmhands to show their wares in major league games, which have more often been televised or broadcast on the radio in recent years. Even with the massive grain of salt that should be taken based on the paragraph above, it’s difficult not to engender some enthusiasm when a prospect shows off his tools during spring games. With that said, let’s take a look at some of the Milwaukee Brewers’ prospects who have shown well during the first two or so weeks of spring training game action:

Lucas Erceg
Milwaukee’s 2nd-round pick in last year’s draft, Erceg isn’t officially a part of big league camp but has been loaned from the minor league side several times and seen plenty of game action. In six games thus far he’s taken 11 at-bats while working a 1.500 OPS. He’s slugged two balls over the fence already and driven in seven while showing off his rocket arm at third base. Check out where this ball lands.

Jesus Aguilar
While he’s no longer technically a prospect, Aguilar has only 64 MLB plate appearances on his ledger in parts of three seasons and has yet to establish himself in the big leagues. The Brewers claimed the hulking first baseman off waivers in early February to give him a shot at earning a spot on the bench as a right handed power hitter and backup to lefty Eric Thames. Given his lack of positional versatility, the out-of-options Aguilar needed his bat to do some serious talking if he’s going to make the team out of camp. So far, so good, as Aguilar has scorched opposing pitchers to the tune of a .474/.524/.842 slash in 19 at-bats with two home runs. You can read more about his profile in this BPMilwaukee feature by Dylan Svoboda.

Ryan Cordell
The subject of one of yesterday’s features on BP Milwaukee, the PTBNL from the Jonathan Lucroy trade is making a strong impression during his first camp with Milwaukee. He’s already appeared in 10 games and in 15 at-bats has posted a 1.279 OPS while showing power (one homer), patience (six walks), and versatility in the outfield. He’ll likely begin the season in AAA, but Cordell has already earned praise from the big league manager.

Ryan Cordell is making an impression. CC: "He’s probably a little farther along than I expected, closer to the big leagues than I expected."

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) March 8, 2017

Lewis Brinson
Ranked as Milwaukee’s #1 overall prospect, expectations are high for the 22 year old center fielder. He’s looked solid so far this spring playing center field while batting .273/.333/.455 across 22 at-bats. He’s stolen a base and shown off some impressive opposite-field power.

Mauricio Dubon
The 22 year old shortstop isn’t quite as polished as the other players we’ve discussed so far, as he just reached AA for the first time last year for a 62 game stint. After getting dealt to the Brewers over the winter, he’ll return to that level to start the 2017 season with Biloxi. Dubon has been a bit over-matched at the plate, collecting only two hits in 11 at-bats while striking out three times, but he’s flashed impressive leather already on several occasions while manning the shortstop position. Here’s his incredible play from yesterday’s game against the Padres.

Josh Hader
Even though he’s ranked by BaseballProspectus as the best Brewers pitching prospect, there are still questions about whether Hader will be able to remain as a starter long-term. To answer those doubts, he’s working diligently to master his “messed-up circle change” grip to give him a third offering along with his dominant fastball/slider combination. Thus far during the spring, Hader has been working in the 92-96 MPH range and touched 97 (per Brooks Baseball) while allowing just one earned run in 4.7 innings with a 5:2 K/BB ratio.

Paolo Espino
Despite possessing a rather strong minor league track record (3.63 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 in 426.7 innings at AAA), the 30 year old Espino has never gotten a shot at the big leagues while previously with the Indians and Nationals organizations. Espino is in camp as a non-roster invitee and is likely ticketed for the Sky Sox rotation to begin the year, but he’s been impressive during his couple of looks this spring. He’s brandishing a five pitch mix (rising four seamer, sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball), sitting 88-92 MPH with his hard stuff and has yet to allow a run through a team-high 6.0 innings. He’s allowed just one hit, walked two and has whiffed four opposing batters. Perhaps he’s a candidate to become this year’s version of #2016BrewersAce Junior Guerra.

Stephen Kohlscheen
A former 45th-round pick by the Mariners (2010) who has previously spent time in Seattle’s and San Diego’s farm systems, Kohlscheen joined the Brewers on a minor league deal last year and was lights-out at AA Biloxi’s closer, posting a 2.54 ERA and 67:17 K/BB ratio with 23 saves across 49.7 innings pitched. His 12.1 K/9 last season was tops among Brewer farmhands (minimum 40 IP) and helped him earn another minor league deal with Milwaukee for 2017 that included an invite to big league camp. Thus far Kohlscheen has worked two scoreless appearances spanning 3.3 innings that have included just one hit allowed, no walks, and three punch-outs. He’s been throwing a rising fastball in the 92-94 MPH range along with a hard slider that sits 85-88 MPH. The 28 year old has never appeared in the big leagues, but given the Brewers wide-open bullpen situation, if he doesn’t break camp with the big league club he stands out as a candidate to receive a call-up at some point during the year.

The league leader in the MLB for CSAA was Zach Davies, with a 3.51 percent mark. As one can glean from the chart, several minor leaguers in Milwaukee’s system alone eclipsed that total last year. That likely has something to do with the quality of umpiring found at the minor league level versus in the big leagues, so the numbers should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt.

According to the numbers, several of the hurlers at Colorado Springs had difficulty commanding their pitches. Hard-throwing arms like Damien Magnifico and David Goforth have been in The Show before but failed to secure a role in spite of their plus fastballs. In both cases, the lack of a swing-and-miss pitch as well as poor command have held the two pitchers back from becoming big league contributors. Taylor Jungmann and Jorge Lopez were both demoted from Colorado Springs down to Biloxi after struggling mightily to keep hitters from reaching base and runs off the board, and both unsurprisingly graded out well-below average in CSAA while in AAA.

On the flip-side, both Brent Suter and Aaron Wilkerson enjoyed excellent seasons at the AAA level (though Wilkerson didn’t arrive in Colorado Springs until coming over in an early July trade with the Red Sox). Neither arm possesses outstanding “stuff”, especially the left-handed Suter, whose fastball tops out around 85 MPH. But both were able to post dominant Deserved Run Averages in a hitter-friendly ballpark at the highest level of the minors thanks in large part to their excellent command.

In the more pitcher-friendly environs of AA Biloxi, we find a bit more success for Milwaukee’s farmhands. Tristian Archer quietly put together an superlative performance for the Shuckers this past season on the strength of his excellent command, including an 82:9 K/BB ratio in 81.7 innings. Josh Hader also displayed above-average command during his dominant 57.0 inning run through the Southern League, though he backed up a bit upon reaching Colorado Springs while issuing 4.7 free passes per nine innings. Jorge Lopez and Taylor Jungmann both improved upon their dreadful CSAA numbers from Colorado Springs but were still a bit below-average command wise. Control of the strike zone has always been a question for those two and figures to be an issue that both will have to fight through if they want to see big league success. I was a bit suprised by Wei-Chung Wang’s numbers, as he only issued only a combined 2.4 BB/9 innings during his time at AA and AAA. He may have displayed decent control by keeping runners from reaching base via the walk, but his command graded out as below-average at both of his stops in 2016.

No pitcher in Milwaukee’s system improved their stock this year more than Brandon Woodruff. The former 11th-round pick had a middling collegiate career at Mississippi State and posted DRAs of 4.73 and 5.74 in the two years preceding 2016. His stuff ticked up this past season, including improved fastball velocity that was often 95+ MPH and a slider now graded as plus by some outlets. That, along with vastly improved command, helped Woodruff lead the minor leagues with 173 strikeouts in 158.0 combined innings between A+ and AA while allowing only 2.3 batters per nine innings to reach via base on balls. Woodruff posted sub-2.00 DRAs at both of the levels he pitched at this year on his way to winning the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He’s now considered a top-10 organization prospect by many of the ranking outlets (though he didn’t crack BP’s Brewers top 10) and should have a good chance to make an impact on the major league team in 2017.