Ultimately, though, Maldonado has already earned the “career backup” label. He will turn 30 this season and has only accumulated 841 plate appearances and +4.3 WARP across five big-league seasons. His .225 TAv perhaps indicates why he’s been unable to push for more regular at-bats. The native of Puerto Rico has been a serviceable backup, but he has not been able to challenge Lucroy for playing time.

But with Lucroy almost out the door, Maldonado’s future is now a matter for serious consideration. His age alone rules him out from being the club’s catcher of the future, but he could very well be a short-term stopgap should the Brewers decide to keep him.

One factor affecting Maldonado’s future is his contract. He signed a two-year deal before the 2015 season that was designed to buy out his first two arbitration years, but he will still be under team control (although arbitration-eligible) after that contract ends this fall. And as a part-time player without flashy numbers, he should remain cheap enough even once he does get to the arbitration process.

He’s obviously not a future star, and one would not and should not expect him to be starter-quality. However, a competent backup is worth something to a contending team. Someone of Maldonado’s quality isn’t worth anything to the Brewers. If they could even have the opportunity to take a flier on a hard-throwing A-ball pitcher with no idea where anything is going, such a gamble would be worth the risk.

The new front office has done an excellent job this offseason at acquiring low-risk assets who may turn into something more valuable. They have done this without sacrificing the future in any way. They have also done this without bringing in players who could block their two best prospects, who are on the cusp of the majors. However, while this is a smart strategy that attempts to not prolong the rebuild, it doesn’t necessarily accelerate it. General manager David Stearns hasn’t acquired any key members of the next good Brewers’ team who are in the majors. The hope of the rebuild, primarily Orlando Arcia and Brett Phillips, remain in the minor leagues, and even a best-case scenario for this winter’s additions would just see guys like Chris Carter and Garin Cecchini turn into solid role players, not franchise-altering ones.

What this means is that Maldonado doesn’t have much use to the Brewers over the next couple years as they are currently constructed. If the club trades Lucroy tomorrow, he can capably fill in and likely would not embarrass them if they had to play him for an extended period of time—and there is probably some sort of developmental value in that for the club’s young pitchers. However, he is a career backup approaching the back half of his career who will probably be 32 or 33 by the time the Brewers are good again, and that’s an optimistic scenario.

The conclusion of this, then, is that a Lucroy trade does not mean that the Brewers absolutely have to trade Maldonado as well. He’s shown that he can be moderately successful in the big leagues, albeit in short stints, and even if he were to be a disaster, the Brewers are not at the point of the win curve where his performance would matter. Major-league-quality backup catchers do have legitimate value, though, and the Brewers would be wise to explore the possibility of trading him should the opportunity present itself. Given Stearns’ activity this offseason, I expect he won’t hesitate to do that.

His actual quotes to Tom Haudricourt are worth revisiting. He never demanded a trade outright, and he was careful to emphasize that he would be playing hard and trying to win even if the Brewers didn’t trade him. And while that may seem to be an obvious statement, professional sports are littered with examples of players simply refusing to play for an organization of which they no longer wish to be a part. Thus, while Lucroy may be unhappy that he isn’t currently poised to contend for a World Series in 2016, he appears content enough to play the good soldier until the Brewers do decide to move him.

Lucroy’s status in baseball’s catcher rankings is a bit dubious; however, the favorability of his contract is not. Milwaukee only owes him $4 million this year and can exercise a $5.25 million club option for 2017, which would be a bargain for a backup, much less a starting-caliber catcher who has an All-Star ceiling. This year-plus of team control makes him a valuable asset and allows the Brewers to be patient. After all, as long as the team that acquires him does so before the beginning of the 2017 season, he would be eligible for the qualifying offer.

However, his aforementioned 2015 season is the biggest factor as to why he wasn’t moved this past winter. In the three previous seasons, Lucroy appeared to have established himself as one of the game’s premier catchers, even garnering some MVP hype in 2014. But in 2015, he regressed both offensively and defensively. His TAv tumbled to .254 — his first below-average mark since 2011 — and his framing metrics were the worst of his career. The hows and whys of this have been covered ad nauseum on this site already (see Julien Assouline’s breakdown of his defense here and Ryan Romano’s analysis of his contact pattern here), so there is no need for me to rehash that information.

It is significant data when considering why Lucroy remains on the team, though. I have no interest in playing GM and pretending that I know what offers the Brewers have entertained for their starting catcher. Any leaks regarding his trade market are only made public when one of the sides has an ulterior motive for doing so, and David Stearns has earned the benefit of the doubt this offseason when it comes to properly valuing his assets. He’s been aces.

With that being said, though, my idle speculation is that the Brewers are probably valuing Lucroy the way they would have after 2014, and clubs who are calling are trying to get a discount. Realistically, were this not the case, it’s difficult for me to imagine a scenario where Milwaukee would not have already made a deal. Each game Lucroy plays in a Brewer uniform makes him less valuable to the team that would acquire him, so if the Brewers believed they could maximize their return this offseason, a deal would have made sense.

This, then, indicates that there are two factors that would affect Lucroy’s trade status: (1) another team’s injury woes, and (2) Lucroy’s performance level.

Injuries can happen at any point during the season, even during spring training. Any team that may have thought it was set at catcher could lose its starter to a serious injury and become desperate. The Brewers probably aren’t relying exclusively on this — it’s too dependent on outside factors — but it remains a distinct possibility this month. Were a contending team with just one catcher (like Houston, for example, who were linked with Lucroy this offseason) to suffer a devastating injury early in the season, Milwaukee would have to be that team’s first call.

The other, more concrete, issue is Lucroy’s performance. If we assume the hypothetical from above about what sort of offers the Brewers were receiving, then the club has to be counting on a bounce-back performance from him this season, or even obvious signs of life this spring. If other teams are concerned that he may not be the player he was in 2014, a strong start to the season would give Stearns ample ammunition in any negotiation. On the other hand, a disappointing first few months could force the Brewers’ front office to lower their asking price.

An injury that forced a contending team to get desperate would be unpredictable, and if one happened, it could unexpectedly alter the timetable for a Lucroy trade. Barring such an occurrence, though, I would not expect Lucroy to be dealt until the trade deadline or next winter. Presumably, if teams are concerned about what kind of player he projects to be at this point in his career, they would want at least a few months of data before solidifying their opinion.

All of this is to say that because Jonathan Lucroy has not been dealt yet, I expect him to remain a member of the Brewers until at least the end of July. He remains a quality player, but the fact that he hasn’t yet been traded indicates that there is a disconnect between what the Brewers are asking and what they are hearing. The Brewers have opted to be patient and wait for an offer they feel they can’t turn down. And with two full years until Lucroy is a free agent, they can afford to wait.

First, Baseball Prospectus launched their new defensive catching metrics, and we were all reminded –despite his down 2015 — Lucroy has a long and deeply established track record as one of the best pitch framers of the modern era. Then, Lucroy had the audacity to speak to a notion that every breathing Brewer fan with deductive reasoning skills had already concluded on their lonesome: that the best course of action for all parties involved would be for the Brewers to trade Lucroy to a contender.

Lucroy’s comments weren’t even divisive, aggressive, or inciteful in any way. In fact, I’d classify them as more “observant” than anything. Lucroy saw Aramis Ramirez get traded to a contender, he saw Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers get traded to a contender, he saw Gerardo Parra get traded to a contender, he saw Adam Lind get, well, he saw Adam Lind get traded. At this point, he’s one of the last remaining veterans in the clubhouse — it’s down to Lucroy the Undervalued and Braun the Untradeable, pretty much. Still, the thinking-from-our-gut bloc of Wisconsin sports fandom flew into a frothy rage at the comments. I wish I could say I was shocked.

Now that the bubbas have moved on (or back) to calling for Ted Thompson’s head on a pike, let’s move on to Lucroy’s inevitable moving-on. Smart money says he’s played his last game in a Milwaukee uniform, and even if that’s not the case, he’s a near-certainty to finish out 2016 for a different team. The only question is, where will his new home be?

9. Oakland A’s

ICYMI: A’s inquire on Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Is he a perfect fit for Oakland? https://t.co/OJM420JT5r pic.twitter.com/oQjlkPOELv

— Casey Witt (@CaseyWitt_) January 25, 2016

Contender Status: Pfft. The A’s traded away Josh Donaldson and lost 94 games in 2015. This off-season they’ve focused primarily on improving their bullpen. The back-end of their starting rotation is pretty much no-man’s land, and their offense was just average last year. It’s entirely possible that the Brewers are closer to competing than they are. 1/5

Catching Situation: Oakland — and their fans — believe in Stephen Vogt.

But the numbers say that the A’s beloved catcher just might be better suited for life as, well, not a catcher. Only five catchers posted worse framing metrics in 2015, and he didn’t do anything positive to make up for it. All in all, his inability to frame pitches cost Oakland ten runs. Backup Josh Phegley put up plus defensive numbers through the minors, but these skills haven’t materialized in three years at the top level. The situation isn’t red-alert dire, but the A’s would be a much stronger team with a more skilled pitch-receiver. 4/5

Will They Meet the Asking Price? It’s not likely. Franklin Barreto is a future impact player and Sean Manaea has front-of-the-rotation upside, but the A’s acquired both within the past year, meaning it’s unlikely that Billy Beane even discusses either. Jacob Nottingham is the third-ranked prospect in the system, but he might be closer to Vogt than Lucroy, defensively. The A’s could probably put together an interesting package for Lucroy, but I’m not convinced that it would be a wise move on their part. 2/5

Overall: The A’s have inquired about Lucroy on multiple occasions this winter, and each time, they’ve come away aghast at Milwaukee’s asking price. It seems Billy Beane is interested in hustling the Stearns regime, and they seem to be having none of that. 7/15

Odds: Astronomical.

8. Colorado Rockies

Contender Status: Like the A’s and Brewers, the Rockies lost 94 games last year. As a general rule, if you didn’t outdo the Brewers during that trainwreck of a season, you get a 1/5.

Catching Situation: The Rockies came into 2015 with Wilin Rosario as their first catcher on the depth chart and watched in amazement as he forgot how to hit. Before long, they had demoted Rosario and turned to journeyman Nick Hundley. To his credit, Hundley posted some of the best offensive numbers of his career, but he headed to the disabled list in July to be replaced by Michael McKenry, who is no longer on the roster. Prospect Tom Murphy is expected to push for the job in 2016 — the fact that he wasn’t able to force his way to any more than 39 plate appearances in 2015 as the Rockies ran out their motley crew of journeymen behind the dish is … less than inspiring. 4/5

Will They Meet the Asking Price? The smart money says “no chance.” But this is the Rockies, so that doesn’t mean much. This team traded for Jose Reyes last July and just recently signed our old friend Gerardo Parra. If they decide to enter the fracas, they will have plenty of worthwhile assets to bid with.

David Dahl and Raimel Tapia are two of the best-hitting outfielders in minor league ball right now. Jeff Hoffman and Jonathan Gray are young arms with lots of potential, and that potential is going to waste in such a volatile environment for pitchers. Ryan McMahon could be Milwaukee’s slugging third baseman of the future. And Murphy would probably come back as part of the deal. While he’s never going to be Lucroy defensively, he’s six years younger, comes with a full six years of team control, and his offensive ceiling is pretty similar. 3/5

Overall: The Rockies certainly have enough assets to acquire Lucroy. And it’s an intriguing thought exercise, especially when you factor in Colorado’s tendency to favor power and groundball pitchers. Lucroy’s elite pitch-framing skills would maximize the effectiveness of these types of playere. Because of that, he might bring more added value to Colorado than any other franchise in theory. But that’s all it is, an intriguing thought exercise. As far as we know, the Rockies haven’t even called to check up on Lucroy. 8/15

Odds: Longer Than Long

7. Miami Marlins

I’d really like to see the #Marlins trade for Jonathan Lucroy. A player or two away from being real threat.

— Sean Boswell (@Sean_Boswell1) January 18, 2016

Contender Status: It’s easy to look at the surface, see a 91-loss team, and write them off without a second thought. But underneath that veneer lurks a sleeper team for 2016. Last year’s Marlins were without Jose Fernandez for most of the season, and of their other pitchers only Carter Capps was worth more than a single win. Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton represent the best hope for the franchise right now, and they are in the major leagues. For them to go for it makes logical sense. Still, they lost 91 games last year. They’re fishing for miracles, even if they’ve got a little bit better bait than the prior two teams. 3/5

Catching Situation: J.T. Realmuto’s rookie season can be accurately described as halfway decent — the backstop accumulated exactly half a win. That was no thanks to his defense, as Realmuto was the second-worst catcher in the league by defensive runs. Since Realmuto is a converted middle infielder who didn’t catch until the professional ranks, you can expect that he’ll improve on that performance. And in the meantime, his bat is obviously enough to keep him employable. But the team’s pitching woes would be helped greatly by a more skilled pitch framer behind the dish. 3/5

Will They Meet the Asking Price? Can they meet the asking price? You’d be surprised. The Marlins have an admittedly weak minor-league system, but Realmuto — who will be 25 years old on Opening Day — and outfielder Marcell Ozuna are two young, affordable pieces with upside and big-league chops. The Marlins have shopped Ozuna for a starter this off-season, to no avail, and he would instantly slot in as the Brewers’ starting center fielder. Throw in a high-upside farm bat — Isael Soto or Stone Garrett would fit the bill — and you’ve actually got a pretty decent value package for Lucroy. The Fish are still really thin on the farm, though. 3/5

Overall: They’re a little bit closer to Earth than the Colorado possibility, but given their roster, the Marlins would probably be better served by waiting to see if they’re good enough to hang in the National League East before they decide to go for it, or sell it off and rebuild. 9/15

Odds: Long

6. Kansas City Royals

Contender Status: Defending World Series Champions. If I was going to bust out a 6 out of 5 at any point on this list, it was going to be here. Regardless, they score a perfect 5/5.

Catching Situation: Salvador Perez is established as the starting catcher in K.C. He’s a good power hitter and has always had a reputation as a sterling defensive catcher. Indeed, when it comes to blocking pitches and throwing out would-be basestealers, Perez is a competent backstop. But his pitch-framing leaves much to be desired. Lucroy would undoubtedly make a great team even better. The problems are that Perez would not willingly take a demotion, his bat isn’t good enough to play at first base/DH, and he’s not the type of player the Brewers would target. Though he’s the same age as Realmuto, he’s got far less projectable growth at this stage of the game. For the Royals to acquire Lucroy would necessitate a three, or four-team trade. This isn’t impossible, but do the Royals want to upgrade their catching defense badly enough to spearhead something like that? 2/5

Will They Meet the Asking Price? Kyle Zimmer and Ashe Russell are both potential front-line starters, but since Raul Mondesi would be a redundancy for the Brewers, the rest of the options are pretty limited. Teenage catching prospect Chase Vallot or reliever Miguel Almonte could work to round out a deal. Again, all signs point towards a three-team deal making the most sense here. 3/5

Overall: Are Lucroy and Kansas City a perfect fit for one another? Absolutely. But when you add in a third, and even fourth, team to the equation it becomes much harder to get everyone to agree. This deal sounds great in theory, but making it work isn’t exactly an easy task. 10/15

Odds: 20-1

T-4. Boston Red Sox

With Dombrowski taking over in Boston, I have to wonder if a Lucroy for Swihart+ deal could be worked out. — RD Topp (@RDTopp) August 20, 2015

Contender Status: It doesn’t quite seem fair to give them a different score than the Marlins. Both teams are in the same boat. Even though last year’s record wasn’t inspiring, the pieces are in play to turn 2016 into a renaissance year. Boston’s problematic bullpen has been completely rebuilt, and David Price is on board to anchor the starting rotation. Last year was bad, but the Red Sox are better than they showed. 3/5

Catching Situation: Blake Swihart had a nice little rookie year, and he’s capable of doing quite a bit more. But behind the plate, Swihart was only marginally less bad than Salvador Perez — negative 6.3 defensive runs against negative 6.5. Most teams would be more than happy to sit around and wait for Swihart to finish developing, but the Red Sox doing something grand here would not be out of character. 3/5

Will They Meet the Asking Price? If they decide they want Lucroy, there’s not a shadow of a doubt. Swihart represents arguably the best young catcher the Brewers could start over with. Plus, the Red Sox have one of the best farm systems in the game. They could pair Swihart with third baseman Rafael Devers and it would be impossible for David Stearns to say no. 5/5

Overall: Boston is the first club that really looks likely to make a run at Lucroy. Their 2015 season was a disaster of epic proportions. In hindsight, it’s easy to see how discontinuity combined with subpar performance behind the dish could have played a major role in last season’s collapse. Lucroy instantly makes the new-look pitching staff much, much better. 11/15

Odds: 15-1

T-4 Tampa Bay Rays

Contender Status: The Rays beat the Red Sox by two games last year, but the Red Sox signed onetime Rays ace David Price. If there’s an edge here between them, it’s slim. Too slim for a five-point scale to reflect. 3/5

Catching Situation: Well, there’s Rene Rivera. He hit .178 after the Rays traded for him. Curt Casali, acquired in the David Price trade from Detroit, hit ten home runs in limited action. Plus there’s the newly acquired Hank Conger, who has never caught 100 games in a season but posted three wins for the 2013 Angels. Squint really hard and Casali looks like he might continue to provide power and defense without making an offensive number of easy outs, but even at his best, you’d rather have Lucroy. And it isn’t even close. 5/5

Will They Meet the Asking Price? Well, there’s certainly options within the Tampa farm system. Blake Snell, Brent Honeywell, and Taylor Guerrieri are all future big-league starters. Jacob Faria fits into that group too, just a few years back on the aging curve. Richie Shaffer is a promising young power hitter. But if it comes down to it, and they both lay their cards down on the table, the Red Sox have more to play with. 3/5

Overall: For Tampa, it is partially about getting better and partially about keeping the Red Sox from getting any better. Because the division rivals are competing against one another for a fininte resource, it’s not a stretch to say that one (or both) will be willing to overpay. 11/15

Odds: 15-1

3. Washington Nationals

Wilson Ramos should be better than a .258 OBP but still think that #Nationals will attempt to acquire someone like Lucroy to start at C

— Sam Alaska (@SAlaskaBarstool) January 13, 2016

Contender Status: The Nationals were supposed to win the NL East without a challenge. Instead, they barely topped .500. But they hung tight in the divisional race until September, and they’re certainly good enough on paper to contend in 2016 — just like they were a year ago. 4/5

Catching Situation: Given a career-high 504 plate appearances, Wilson Ramos posted an on-base percentage of .258 in 2015. Ramos’ approach has fallen apart since 2013, and the isolated power mark of .128 he gets for it isn’t particularly great, either. The last thing a National League team needs is a catcher who essentially serves as the second dead spot in the lineup. 5/5

Will They Meet the Asking Price? Now that they’ve been spurned by Yoenis Cespedes, they just might have no choice. David Stearns should try his absolute hardest to get Lucas Giolito, but the odds of that happening are not favorable. Giolito’s ceiling is as high as any pitcher in baseball, and he has shredded the minor leagues since returning from Tommy John surgery. In the end, Washington might be another team that benefits from adding a third party to the mix. 3/5

Overall: The Nationals couldn’t quite get Yoenis Cespedes, and with that Lucroy likely slides to the top of Washington’s wish list for the offseason. Boy, if they could be talked into giving up Giolito… 12/15

Odds: 10-1

2. Chicago Cubs

@theoutlaw30 @NathanPP14 Kap says the #cubs are in on Lucroy of the Brewers — Alan Osinski (@103yearsnwaitin) December 7, 2015

Contender Status: Arguably the World Series favorite coming into Spring Training. Of course, the Cubs are also an in-division rival, and we really don’t want Lucroy to be hurting the New Brewers by the time they’re contending. I’m assessing a one-point penalty for divisional familiarity. 4/5

Catching Situation: Kyle Schwarber was a rookie phenom, but he’s more “emergency catcher” than anything. Miguel Montero and David Ross are journeymen who aren’t going to kill your team, but could be easily replaced if something truly competent came along. In fact, finding that “something” might be the key to winning the first World Series in over a century of franchise history. 5/5

Will They Meet the Asking Price? Keep in mind, due to the divisional proximity, the Brewers are going to be asking for the moon here. They’ve been asking for a lot with everybody else, but that will get dialed up to eleven with Chicago.

Still, the Cubs’ farm system is among the best and deepest in all of baseball. Dan Vogelbach, CJ Edwards, Billy McKinney — just south down I-94 is a treasure trove of farm-system riches. Even with the raised in-division pricing the Cubs can put together an acceptable offer. 4/5

Overall: It’s not entirely rare to see Brewers/Cubs trades, but this would take the cake as the biggest since Milwaukee joined the National League. With Lucroy behind the dish, the Cubs would be heavy National League favorites — all the more reason to overcharge them, if you ask me. 13/15

Odds: 5-1

1. Texas Rangers

Crank up the Lucroy-Rangers rumor mill again: ESPN says Texas is top five destination for Brewers catcher https://t.co/vunSN3Jrt2

— Milwaukee Daily (@MilwaukeeDaily) January 21, 2016

Contender Status: Coming off of a playoff berth, with the talent to do it again and again, over and over. 5/5

Catching Situation: Chris Gimenez and Robinson Chirinos are back from 2015. Neither of these guys are bad, but they probably shouldn’t be starting any playoff games. The Rangers also signed Michael McKenry, a quad-A backstop from Colorado’s roster, and who will make the cut is yet to be determined. 5/5

Will They Meet the Asking Price? The Brewers have insisted that Texas include Joey Gallo in any Lucroy deal — Gallo’s power tool might be on par with Giancarlo Stanton. The Rangers have been hesitant to include Gallo, but might instead be able to construct a deal centered around outfielder Lewis Brinson. Long thought to be a “high ceiling if he hits” type of prospect, Brinson slashed .337/.416/.682 at High-A, then held his own to the tune of .291/.328/.545 at Double-A despite being merely 21 years old. Don’t get me wrong, I love Joey Gallo, but I love Brinson too, and either way I think the Brewers would be getting a true star. 4/5

Overall: There’s a reason that such a plurality of the Lucroy rumors up to now have centered around Texas. They’re a playoff team, looking to improve. Their farm system is flush with talent. They want to win now. The catcher position is a huge black hole. The Rangers remain the most sensible destination for Jonathan Lucroy. 14/15

Odds: 3-1

With Yoenis Cespedes re-signing in New York and Justin Upton inking a long-term deal with Detroit, the stagnating outfield market seems to finally have jumped to life. Dexter Fowler and Austin Jackson still have to find homes. As the latter two are primarily center fielders, though, it’s fair to suggest that the free-agent market is meaningfully over at the corner positions. That could mean the trade market heats up over the next couple weeks.

Khris Davis compiled a .247/.323/.505 slash line with 27 homers in just 440 plate appearances in 2015. Some signs still indicate that he’s best utilized as a platoon outfielder, but in an power-depressed league, Davis’s bat carries enough value to garner 500+ PA in the right situation. Now that teams can’t acquire impact outfield bats in free agency, Brewers’ GM David Stearns should finally get nibbles on the line for the 28-year-old slugger.

The fact that Davis has four control years remaining on his contract makes him stand out from guys like Jay Bruce, who will almost certainly be shopped prior to opening day. Working against him, though, is the fact that he can only handle left field.

The Chicago White Sox are desperately looking for a reason to not start Avisail Garcia in right field (and could move Melky Cabrera to right). The Los Angeles Angels could use someone to platoon with Daniel Nava in left. A team like the Oakland Athletics may see someone like Davis as a low-cost option beyond 2016, and they’ve been haphazardly active this winter. Other teams could show interest, too, but those are a few that make sense.

JIMMY NELSON, THE KNUCKLE-CURVE, AND PLATOON SPLITS

Jimmy Nelson drew rave reviews for his early-season performance in 2015. He posted a 3.58 FIP in April and unleashed his new knuckle-curve, which buckled the knees of many spring opponents. It was a pitch designed to replace his changeup and improve his effectiveness against lefties.

In 2015, the right-hander allowed opposite-handed batters to hit .298/.381/.495 with a walk rate of 4.13 BB/9 and a 1.68 WHIP. It represented a stark difference to his performance against righties, who he dominated throughout the entire year. The existence of a cavernous platoon split suggests that his knuckle-curve wasn’t really all that it was cracked up to be.

Of course, this skirts the fact that baseball is played over six months. Consistency is perhaps more important than raw stuff. To that point, Nelson gradually lost what made his knuckle-curve so promising: the vertical tilt.

As one can see, his knuckle-curve became more horizontal and less vertical as the season progressed. And the pitch isn’t much different from his slider — aside from a bit of velocity — if it’s not breaking downward to a significant degree. It’s also less effective against lefties when it’s not dropping off the table.

Nelson allowed left-handed hitters to post a .379 and .317 batting average in June and August, respectively. Lefties also hit over .300 in September, but he only threw 19 innings due to being struck in the head by a line drive. All of the damage may not have come against the knuckle-curve; however, the decreased vertical movement allowed opposing lefties to sit on his fastball and not offer as often against the offspeed pitch.

For Jimmy Nelson to take a step forward and become a mid-rotation starter for the Brewers, either his knuckle-curve or his changeup (in which I still believe) has to become a consistent third offering. Otherwise, he’s simply going to struggle against lefties once more in 2016 and the story won’t be meaningfully different.

WHAT MAKES LUCROY’S COMMENTS DIFFERENT?

Craig Counsell (September 23, 2015): “I don’t have any grandiose speeches yet, because I do think that where we’re at it the process of building, there’s going to be painful moments still. And that’s OK. That’s what happens when you try to build something great. There’s some pain in there. It almost has to happen, that pain. And there’s still more pain coming. That’s not to scare people. But if you want something great, you’ve got to be willing to undergo some pain. It’s a big job getting to where we want to get to. It’s a big job.”

Mark Attanasio (December 17, 2015): “By doing better, I mean fielding a playoff-competitive team and one day bringing a world championship to Milwaukee. To move toward accomplishing this lofty goal, I believe we need to take a step back and build more intensively from within.”

Jonathan Lucroy’s recent comments, suggesting that he would welcome a trade, have made many Brewers fans uncomfortable. One of the common criticisms has been that Lucroy’s “expectations of losing” could negatively impact the development of the Brewers’ young pitchers, as they may resent Lucroy and not accept his mentorship. Furthermore, maybe the comments are supposedly going to foment some kind of clubhouse disfunction.

All of that smacks of fans searching for reasons why comments they don’t want to hear are somehow worthy of anger. This isn’t the case for several reasons:

1. If “negative” comments from ownership and the club’s manager — meaning, comments that seemingly convey an expectation to lose in 2016 — aren’t problematic, why are Lucroy’s? That somehow a fellow player’s unbelief will rub off and stunt development? That somehow a pitcher is going to understand his manager’s rebuilding comments, but not the ones from his catcher? I really struggle to see a qualitative difference between the comments from Counsell/Attanasio and Lucroy, other than the latter saying that he wants to leave. And, of course, only one of those individuals has limitations on his patience due to the fleeting nature of player peaks. If anyone deserves benefit of the doubt in this situation, it seems to be the player who understands that he may not have many seasons left.
2. Why can outsiders understand the motivations behind Lucroy’s comments, but not his fellow teammates, many of whom are likely his friends and people with whom he’s in communication this winter? Seems to me that we’re treating the young Brewers players as if they’re unintelligent or unable to empathize with their teammate.
3. Lucroy is smart enough to know that his trade value is tied up in the performance of the Brewers’ young pitching staff. He’s not going to dog it, nor is he going to ignore the development of guys like Nelson, Peralta, Davies, and Jungmann. With all the articles being written about his framing decline and his decreased ability to handle pitching staffs, there’s no way that Lucroy neglects that piece of his responsibilities.
4. If we’re treating Lucroy’s comments as truthful, meaning he only cares about winning and not loyalty to the Brewers, it seems to me that his only desire in 2016 will be winning baseball games — whether that’s in Milwaukee or elsewhere. I don’t think we’ve ever seen any evidence to suggest the contrary. Part of that desire to win will be maximizing the performance and development of the young pitching staff. Assuming otherwise is blatantly ignoring Lucroy’s motivations for making the original comments.

So, no, I still don’t believe Lucroy’s comments are a big deal, and I particularly despise that I’m only feeding into the narrative by devoting 1,000+ words on the topic on this site. I hope this is the end of it.

Then, on Tuesday, Jonathan Lucroy mentioned that he’d welcome a trade to a winning ballclub because he doesn’t foresee Milwaukee competing for playoff spots over the next couple years. And as one would expect, such comments have gone over swimmingly among the Brewers’ fan base. (Hint: That’s sarcastic. It’s been a bit of a dumpster fire.)

As baseball fans, we often project our fandom and our loyalties onto professional ballplayers and assume their relationship with a team is somehow equivalent to our own. Undeniably chosen, yet unshakable. We idolize players that fit into that mold. Many of us, though, have a difficult time coping with players who remind us that a player-team relationship is also a business relationship, perhaps even one that happened by nothing but chance due to the MLB Draft or a trade. The idea that a player could discard one set of laundry and care just as much about another is foreign to the fan experience. It’s uncomfortable and infuriating for many people.

On the other hand, players are constantly told by fans that they must prioritize winning over money. Lucroy explicitly says that he agrees with this: “I can’t put numbers on how much longer I’m going to play, but as players we want to win. I don’t care about the money; I just want to win. That’s the bottom line.”

But what fans really mean is that players have to prioritize winning for their team, rather than winning in general. And they certainly don’t want a player to pursue winning elsewhere, due to the implied criticism.

Brewers fans face a fallow period that’s likely to last a couple years, if not more. Brewers fans have no choice but to grit their teeth and wait for the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. I suspect they dislike the feeling that Jonathan Lucroy is asking to opt out of that rebuilding period, to simply move shop to another city and enjoy a postseason chase. That’s a choice that no Brewers fan has this winter. They’re being asked to buy into a retooling stretch, and it feels unfair that they’re being asked to do so while one of the team’s premier players wants to take the “easy” route and leave.

Lucroy isn’t really demanding a trade, though, and it’s important to note that. He says multiple times that he’ll give everything to the Brewers in 2016. It seems disingenuous to pick and choose which parts of his statement one wants to believe, too, so I don’t think we have an ability to doubt his commitment to the club.

After all, Lucroy is motivated by nothing but winning. Whether that’s winning in Milwaukee or performing well enough to be shipped elsewhere, it doesn’t matter. He’ll be chomping at the bit in April. And that’s all that really matters. Anything else is just projected anger (or jealousy, I suppose) over a player opting out of a painful rebuilding process that none of us want to endure. Because we’re not in it together, and that’s tough to cope with sometimes.

This process is especially applicable to the Brewers because the new front office won’t have any special connection with most of the team’s current players. Often, this phenomenon is described as teams being irrationally high on their own players, but it is actually much subtler than that. The reality is that the team that ends up with a player necessarily thinks more of him than other teams do in the first place. Thus, it is not simply that teams are loathe to trade players they have; instead, it is the fact that they thought highly enough of these players to acquire them in the first place that makes finding trade partners unlikely.

But with David Stearns now in place of Doug Melvin, the Brewers front office isn’t likely to fall victim to that. Where Melvin may have thought more highly of players such as Matt Garza and Francisco Rodriguez than did the rest of the industry, Stearns has no such compunction. He may be irrationally high on other players — as evidenced by the acquisition of his former player, Jonathan Villar — but those people are unlikely to have been with the Brewers before Stearns’ hiring.

The end result of this is that most of the veterans on this team are fair game to be traded, and some will almost certainly be dealt before spring training. Adam Lind, for example, is under contract for only this upcoming season and is therefore a virtual certainty to be traded soon. Ideally, the Brewers would probably prefer to trade him before Opening Day, as at that point he will still be eligible for the qualifying offer with his new team and thus (hopefully) have more trade value.

Milwaukee has three obvious veterans other than Lind, and each is in a different position. Matt Garza is a candidate to be traded at the deadline to a playoff team looking for starting pitching depth, but such a trade is heavily contingent on Garza pitching well enough in the first half of 2015 to have any value at all. After being a competent big leaguer in 2013 and 2014 (1.7 and 2.0 WARP, respectively), his disastrous 2015 that was highlighted by a 5.36 DRA destroyed any possibility of a preseason trade. The Brewers simply would not get enough back for him to make a deal worth their while.

Jonathan Lucroy, though, does have significant trade value. By any WAR metric, he has been one of the best catchers in baseball over the past few years, and he is on an extremely affordable contract: $4 million in 2016 and a $5.25 million team option in 2017. Those numbers would be a bargain for an average starting catcher, but Lucroy is significantly better than that. The problem with trading him, though, is that the Brewers will likely hope to begin competing again in 2017 — and such a hope is not ridiculous given the age of many of their top prospects — and Lucroy can still be on that future team. Additionally, his defensive skills are well-documented, and the Brewers may want him to help develop their young pitching. When that fact is combined with his contract, the team should hold onto him unless they are absolutely blown away by a trade offer.

Ryan Braun is the final veteran to be discussed here, and he is probably the most irrelevant as he is probably mostly untradeable. The 2011 Vernon Wells trade proves that no contract is unmoveable, but it is difficult to imagine finding a team that will want to pay a fading outfielder with no defensive value nearly $100 million for the next five years.

Of the team’s younger players, Jean Segura is undoubtedly the most interesting. Players such as Khris Davis or Scooter Gennett are mostly spare parts and could very well be moved but are unlikely to bring back huge returns (although it should be noted that Davis is more valuable than Gennett). Segura, though, is an average Major League shortstop who is not a free agent until 2019, which makes him valuable. Cost-controlled shortstops are attractive to most teams, not just contending ones, but the presence of Orlando Arcia and Jonathan Villar makes Segura expendable. If the Brewers can get the big offer for him that they undoubtedly expect, a trade makes perfect sense.

The final piece of the Brewers’ offseason trade plan is actually several different players: the bullpen. They do actually have a few good relief pitchers, and those are exactly the players they should look to trade. Relievers are volatile, and it is difficult to predict which will be good more than one year out. Therefore, given the fact that they do not expect to compete this year, they should listen to calls on everyone. Michael Blazek had a promising 2015, and Jeremy Jeffress may very well close in 2016. Will Smith, though, is the key piece. The lefty hasn’t posted a cFIP above 80 (where 100 is league average and lower is better) since 2012, and his 69 cFIP in 2015 was good enough for 17th in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings. The Brewers may be able to get a truly valuable prospect for such a talented pitcher, although they may have to wait until July.

Overall, this article is attempting to suggest that the Brewers should not be tied to many of the players on their current 25-man roster, and they are in fact unlikely to be very connected. The cornerstones of the next good Brewers team probably spent 2015 in Double-A, so unless the members of the current roster can be of value to those young players (like Lucroy), the Brewers should attempt to move them.

• They need a third baseman for the future. In the 2011 offseason, Aramis Ramirez came to Milwaukee, where he manned the hot corner for three-plus years. The club traded him to Pittsburgh this past July, and they’d like to find someone to productively fill his place. GM David Stearns highlighted third base and center field (where Carlos Gomez, also traded in July, used to roam) as his top priority.
• They don’t really have a third baseman for the future. In center, the Brewers can expect Brett Phillips to blossom into a starter by 2017 or 2018. No such internal option exists for third base, where Gilbert Lara — the top prospect at the position entering the season — had a middling season at the rookie level, though it was an aggressive assignment. An 18-year-old, Lara will require at least several seasons to reach his potential, if he ever realizes it. Javier Betancourt, who came to Milwaukee in the K-Rod trade, could make the move to third at some point. He’s played up the middle for his entire career, though, and his bat has a pretty uninspiring ceiling. Overall, the farm doesn’t look like it can provide a starting-caliber third baseman for a foreseeable future.
• They do have plenty of outfielders for the future. Ryan Braun will presumably play right field for the next five years, while Khris Davis seems to have locked down left (barring a trade). Not content with these two, the Brewers have stuffed their system with men who can patrol the outfield. Phillips stands out as the best of the bunch, but Domingo Santana, Tyrone Taylor, Monte Harrison, and Clint Coulter could all develop into solid regulars.

Given this, it seems to me that the Brewers have a logical next move: trade a young outfielder for a young third baseman. It’s the classic instance of dealing from a strength to improve a weakness — and some of the (possibly) available options could really help the team.

Rio Ruiz, Atlanta Braves

Thanks to some recent moves, Atlanta has three third base types in its minor-league system. They include Ruiz, who came to the team in the Evan Gattis trade a year ago; Austin Riley, whom the team drafted in the first round this season; and Hector Olivera, whom the club acquired in the Alex Wood deal in July. This sort of logjam means at least one of them could hit the market. Since the Braves seem to be undergoing a deep rebuild, they’d likely make Ruiz — the most advanced and least exciting of the trio — available first.

Across 1,715 minor-league plate appearances, Ruiz has compiled a solid .263/.353/.399 slash line. An exquisite walk rate of 12.3 percent has helped him reach base often, while an 18.0 percent strikeout rate suggests he should make enough contact to stay relevant. As he ages (he won’t turn 22 until May), he may continue to add some power. He didn’t hit well in 2015, posting a .233/.333/.324 line in 489 trips to the dish at Double-A, but that occurred in a difficult environment for offense.

The biggest doubts about Ruiz’s future lie on the defensive side of the ball. While he owns a high-quality arm, scouts have critiqued his range to this point. BP’s scouting report last offseason stated that he would need to “further improve his footwork and lower-half actions” to stick at the third. If he can progress in this regard, he should pair a respectable glove with a noteworthy-enough bat — a combination that the Brewers would willingly accept.

Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks

As with Atlanta, Arizona’s farm affiliates possess a few captivating third-base prospects. Brandon Drury, the key piece in the Justin Upton trade three years back, will probably have priority there for the future. Yasmany Tomas and his sizable contract can also play the hot corner, although a corner outfield spot probably suits him better. That could leave Lamb as the odd man out.

As a 24-year-old rookie, Lamb certainly fared well in 2015, batting .254/.318/.382 en route to 2.3 WARP. That didn’t come out of nowhere — he demolished minor-league pitching, with a .321/.408/.552 career slash line. The issue for Lamb has always been strikeouts. A 21.0 percent K-rate below the show gave way to a 24.9 percent mark in his Major League debut. Still, he hits for power and takes walks, which should help his offense remain satisfactory (at least).

In addition to his offense, Lamb excelled this year on defense, where he earned 10.2 FRAA over a mere 782.2 innings. That sort of production will likely regress for the years to come, but Lamb shouldn’t become a negative in the field for some time. With an up-and-coming star banging on the door behind him, Lamb could depart soon; the Brewers wouldn’t hesitate to import his services.

Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals

The need here may be even more mutual than in Atlanta or Arizona. Not only does Kansas City have a starting third baseman in Mike Moustakas, they’ll need an outfielder if Alex Gordon signs elsewhere in free agency. Bringing in the 2013 first-rounder could really aid the Brewers.

Dozier has considerably greater potential than his minor-league numbers suggest. While a slash line of .249/.335/.390 won’t suffice in the majors, the raw power behind that hasn’t disappeared. Strikeouts (22.8 percent of his plate appearances) have plagued him to this point, but a healthy serving of bases on balls (10.8 percent) has helped negate those. After a brutal 2015 showing, he’ll look to bounce back in 2016, which would likely function as an in-between year for the Brewers anyway.

Should Dozier improve his hitting as needed, it will presumably become his calling card. This isn’t to say he can’t stick at third — earlier this year, BP complimented his “solid hands” at the position — but the bat will make or break Dozier’s career. At age 24, he clearly doesn’t have a good amount of time. Nevertheless, we could still see him tap into his ability someday, perhaps in the Brewer blue.

***

Ruiz, Lamb, and Dozier will probably never develop into All-Stars. If the Brewers did swing a deal for one of them, they would do so recognizing this. But these players can still succeed in the show, albeit with additional seasoning first. Simply receiving league-average production from the five-hole could help elevate Milwaukee back to contention.

Have another possible third baseman the Brew Crew could target? Drop a comment below or let BP Milwaukee know on Twitter.