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Tyler Webb’s Quiet Upside

Twenty-seven-year-old Tyler Webb is trying to get that eighth and final bullpen spot.

Webb was the trade return from the New York Yankees in the Garrett Cooper deal last July 13th. In 33  Class-AAA innings prior to the trade, Webb had the best stretch of his young career. Over that stretch, he struck out 12.7 batters per nine innings while walking just three batters total. His groundball rate also crept above 50 percent for the first time in his minor league career. His opponents’ BABIP (.366) was his only real blemish.

Webb’s fortunes changed upon arrival in Colorado Springs. The lefty’s strikeouts per nine dipped below ten (9.2) and his walks per nine shot up to 3.8. Batters continued to hit for a high BABIP (.362). After his success in the Yankees system during the first half, he second half of 2017 ended up being the worst stretch of his minor league career. Webb posted a 6.06 FIP along with a 6.48 ERA.

Last season’s debut stretch with the Brewers will hold Webb back, but it should be noted he was pitching his home games in Colorado Springs, which is notoriously one of the most hitter-friendly parks in professional baseball. Additionally, it’s only 16.7 innings of bad pitching being considered here.

Webb isn’t coming out of nowhere, either. From 2014 to 2016, he posted a FIP at or below 3.74 for the Yankees Class-AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He posted a K/9 above 9.7 in each season while never walking more than 3.1 per nine innings. There’s evidence that shows Webb’s troubling second half of 2017 was a blip on an otherwise stellar track record.

A lack of velocity on his fastball makes scouts wary about his future prospects. In 2017, Webb’s average fastball velocity was under 92 MPH, which is down from the 93 MPH+ fastball he flashed in 2015. Webb’s two other pitches, his slider, and changeup hover around 80 MPH. It’s hard for scouts and analysts to be convinced of a pitcher with Webb’s velocity in 2018. At the same time, his strikeout rate shows he can still dominate without the velocity.

Webb would provide another southpaw arm out of a bullpen that will employ just two left-handers, Hader and Logan. Hader won’t be employed in matchup situations, he’s going to the Brewers’ long-man. Logan, although a successful lefty specialist throughout his career, pitched in just 21 innings last season. There will come a point this bullpen will need another lefty to face the Anthony Rizzo’s and Joey Votto’s of the National League Central.

With all the hoopla surrounding the Brewers outfield and the confusion about how the rotation and second base will shake out, the bullpen is being overlooked. Webb is one of many interesting arms getting a look this Spring Training. If he pitches anything like he did prior to July of last season, his name should be penciled into a roster spot later this month.

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Earlier this offseason, second base was a primary concern for Brewers fans. Most assumed that GM David Stearns would bring back midseason acquisition Neil Walker. That hasn’t happened yet, and although Walker is still a free agent, it seems the team is content rolling with the pieces they’ve got at the position: Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard, and Hernan Perez.

This Spring will determine who will be the Brewers starting second baseman on March 29th.

If a decision were to be made based on the 2017 season alone, the thirty-one-year-old Sogard would be the obvious choice. Sogard enjoyed a .393 on-base percentage (OBP) over 299 plate appearances in 2017, thanks in large part to his walk rate of 15.1 percent. He was one of just three batters with over 190 plate appearances with a walk-to-strikeout ratio above 1, joining Joey Votto and Justin Turner.

However, Sogard hasn’t always been an on-base machine. In 1,327 plate appearances over six partial seasons prior to 2017, he had an OBP of .296 and a walk rate of 6.9 percent.

Sogard’s increase in walk rate can be attributed to a simple decrease in swings. He swing rate dipped just below 35 percent in 2017, after hovering around 40 percent prior to last season. He began swinging less frequently at pitches not only outside of the zone, but inside of the zone as well.

Sogard has always been regarded as a terrific infielder. If the veteran can somehow manage to maintain his elite walk rate, he will be the an above average starting second baseman and possibly hit towards to the top of the Brewers lineup.

But history shows Sogard has been a well-below average hitter throughout his career. If pitchers adjust and begin throwing him more strikes, he will be forced to put the ball in play and rely on his weak power profile. 299 plate appearances are not enough to conclude that Sogard is a completely different hitter, which is why the next couple guys are going to get their licks.

Jonathan Villar is the primary competition for Sogard. Villar himself is a testament as to why one season can’t be the end all be all when it comes future performance. Similar to Sogard, if a decision were to be made based on the 2016 season alone, Villar would be the obvious choice.

Villar dominated in 2016, stealing 62 bases and hitting 19 home runs, producing a .826 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). He was the obvious fit to start at second base prior to last season.

And then he struggled. Villar made 436 plate appearances and stole 23 bases while sporting an .665 OPS in 2017. His poor offensive output forced the Brewers to search for a replacement.

Villar comes into camp this year fighting for his job back. Even if he finds himself somewhere in between his 2016 and 2017 self, it’s easy to see him being a solid starting second baseman. He is still just twenty-six-years-old, which means there’s a possibility his best days are ahead of him.

The Brewers have stacked the rest of their lineup, particularly in the outfield, which means they can afford to run with Sogard or Villar at second base and running the risk that neither of them will be a true starting caliber player. The question then is, which one is going to garner the bulk of the playing time?

If the team was forced to choose, Villar, who has a much higher ceiling than the older, less athletic Sogard, should receive the bulk of the playing time.

Villar has the ability to push the Brewers’ offense to another level. Sogard, at his best, will just move the lineup along. It’s hard to see Sogard ever reaching double digit home run numbers in the major leagues. Villar has 20+ home run power on top of being one of best base stealers in the league when he’s healthy.

In reality, both players are going to receive their fair-share of playing time unless one sticks out. If one or the other can regain their career-year form, the Brewers won’t have a single hole in their lineup.

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Albers is coming off the best season of his twelve-year career. He posted 1.2 WARP, a career-high, over 61 innings in 63 games. His K/9 shot up to 9.30 after striking out just 5.26 per nine in 2016. The righty also posted a WHIP below 1.00 (0.85) for the first time in his career.

Last year, Albers was one of just seven relief pitchers to strikeout more than nine batters per nine innings and have a ground ball rate above 50 percent. It was the first time in Albers’s career he was able to pair an elite strikeout rate with his usually-excellent ground ball rate. For example, in 2011, he posted a strikeout per nine above 9.00 but his ground ball rate dipped below 50 percent.

Albers will likely fill the setup role Anthony Swarzak filled in the second half of 2017, but at about a third of the price. Swarzak signed for fourteen million over two years with the New York Mets in December. Although Albers can’t match Swarzak’s flashy earned run average and strikeout rate, he provides much needed depth while allowing the Brewers to spread out financial resources.

Since Albers had a career-year at thirty-four, the righty’s 2016 immediately screams fluke to most. However, the combination of refining his walk rate and his newfound, nearly complete reliance on his slider and sinker made Albers’s breakout possible.

Early in his career, Albers was a base on balls machine. He walked over four batters per nine innings in each of his first six seasons. In the two following seasons, 2012 and 2013, he walked 3.3 batters per nine. Since 2014, the righty has walked over 3 batters per nine just once, and walked just 2.5 batters per nine last year. Although Albers’s walk rate is still not elite, it’s respectable, opposed to the disaster it was early in his career.

Last year, Albers nearly became a two-pitch pitcher after working as a four or five-pitch pitcher throughout the rest of his career. He completely ditched his curveball, a pitch he threw just under a quarter of the time in his first four seasons in the big leagues and 12 percent of the time as recently as 2013. He used his four-seam fastball for just one month, August, his worst month of the season, and then ditched it again in September.

Albers became almost exclusively a sinker/slider guy. He threw either his sinker or slider over 91 percent of the time in 2017. In April, his best month of the season, he threw his sinker or slider over 97 percent of the time.

Because of his age and questionable late-career breakout, PECOTA is justifiably down on Albers. PECOTA calls for a 4.64 DRA and just 0.2 WARP in 52 innings for the right hander. But PECOTA may not account for Albers becoming a different pitcher as far as pitch mix goes last season. Additionally, his improved command throughout his career may change his outlook. Albers has learned to harness his control while relying on pitches that dip and cut.

David Stearns gave Albers the first multi-year contract of his career out of faith in the pitcher he was last year. If Albers can continue his solid command, while relying solely on his sinker and slider, the Brewers have just found their new setup man for Corey Knebel for pennies on the dollar.

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The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off an 86-win season and trying to add to that success. Despite what appears to be one of the most favorable free agent markets in recent history, David Stearns seems to be turning to the trade market for improvements. In this discounted market, Stearns would be mistaken going to the trade route rather than spending in free agency.

The Brewers are rumored to be in trade talks with the Miami Marlins for Christian Yelich.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-lang=”en”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Source : Brewers have put together a trade offer &amp; have shown strong interest Marlins OF Christian Yelich. Other teams remain in the mix.</p>&mdash; Craig Mish (@CraigMish) <a href=”https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/955907465538822144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>January 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

Yelich is the most valuable piece on the trade market. He’s barely twenty-six-years-old, and under a $43.3 million contract through 2021 with a $15 million team option for 2022. He’s been worth 15.8 WARP in four-and-a-half major league seasons. Yelich is a borderline superstar on an extremely team-friendly contract.

Yelich’s talent level and contract situation not only makes him the most coveted piece on the trade market this offseason, but he’s also one of the most valuable assets in the league period. He’s going to garner a haul.

A trade for Yelich like starts with one of the Brewers young outfielders, Domingo Santana or Lewis Brinson, both of which are under favorable contract situations of their own. Santana or Brinson alone won’t be nearly enough to acquire Yelich. A hypothetical trade will likely cost one of the two outfielders and probably two of the Brewers top ten prospects or one of their top three prospects. Yelich’s age, skill, and contract allow the Marlins to ask for the world.

The Brewers have one of the strongest farm systems in the league, which is one of the reasons they are in on players such as Yelich and Chris Archer. Rather than blowing up the farm system Stearns has spent the past few seasons building, he has the option of going to the free agent market to find outfield and pitching improvements.

The Brewers ended the last two seasons with the lowest payroll in the league after finishing with the 15th highest payroll in 2014, according to Cots Baseball Contracts. In other words, the organization should have money to spend.

The front office should be looking to add pieces to this young core coming up through the system, not shedding pieces to add talent. Especially when assets on the free agent market are to be had.

If the Brewers are set on improving center field, they should look no further than Lorenzo Cain. Cain is much older, not as talented, and would likely cost a bit more financially than Yelich. However, the veteran Cain wouldn’t cost anything in prospect loss, save a compensatory pick in this years draft. The Brewers could then use their deep outfield to trade for rotation or relief help.

There are plenty of options on the free agent market for Stearns to add to the starting rotation. Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb are just a few names who have yet to find a home. In Darvish’s case, he wouldn’t cost a compensation pick. The Brewers should be doing everything they can to add pitching in this market while they are still available. If all else fails and the team is desperate for pitching, then turn to the trade market.

There’s no reason to ruin what the Brewers have going, as far as their farm system goes. A farm system is something to build around. The Chicago Cubs won their first championship in 108 years by building and holding onto a strong farm system, and then adding veteran talent around them, most through free agency. The Brewers should be looking to go the same route, particularly in this team-friendly free agent market.

Although it’s tempting to jump the gun and acquire an Archer or Yelich, especially when you have the assets to make that possible, it’d be ideal for the Brewers to hold onto their prospects, stay out of the trade market, and build around their young prospects rather than using them as trade assets.

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Logan was limited to just 38 games and 21 innings in 2017 due to a lat strain that ended his season in late July. In the two seasons prior to 2017, he pitched in 126 games and 81 ⅔ innings, posting a 3.40 fielding independent pitching (FIP) over that stretch. The veteran lefty finished with an uninspiring 4.71 ERA last season, but when considering his strikeout numbers, FIP, and batting average on balls in play (BABIP), Logan looks like he had a semi-dominant 21 innings in the big leagues last season.

Logan’s 3.13 FIP would have been his best of his 12 year career over a full season. His ERA was bloated almost entirely by an inflated opposing BABIP of .353, although his 51 percent ground ball rate was two percentage points better than his career average. The southpaw struck out 12 batters per nine innings, the best mark of his career. His walks per nine were a tick below 4 at 3.9, a concerning total but right in line with his career average. He also had a park factor that was 8 percent above average, which did no good for his ERA totals. The only thing out of line was his opposing BABIP.

Even as Logan scratched the surface of his mid-thirties and endured an injury-riddled season, the velocity on his pitches maintained. According to Brooks Baseball, his fastball and sinker both remained slightly below 94 MPH. Logan threw his slider harder and more often than ever, selecting it nearly 58 percent of his pitches, with a velocity around 84 MPH.

Although Brewers fans are longing for the big move to take this team over the hump and into the playoffs, it is small moves such as the Logan signing that builds a well-rounded roster. By spending just $2.5 million, David Stearns has lengthened and strengthened his bullpen without any long-term commitment. If Logan stays healthy and returns to being the more-than-solid lefty-specialist he has proven to be throughout his career, the Brewers can bring him back in 2019 at a modest price. Stearns has built the Brewers current roster on seemingly minor moves such as these, and the Boone Logan signing has the potential to join his long list of underrated moves.

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After spending parts of six seasons with the Colorado Rockies and Coors Field from 2009 to 2014, then bouncing around the league and battling injuries in 2015 and 2016, Chacin found himself in San Diego on a one-year 1.8 million dollar deal, pitching his home games at Petco Park.Chacin took full advantage of Petco’s pitcher-friendly confines. In 100.3 innings pitching at Petco, he posted a 1.79 ERA. Despite his dominance at Petco Park, Chacin was terrible on the road. In 80 innings away from Petco Park, he posted a 6.53 ERA over 16 starts.

Chacin’s pitchers park factor (PPF) indicates that he was one of the luckiest pitchers in the league as far as which ballpark he found himself pitching in. His PPF of 89 was tied for fifth in the league, behind three Giants and another Padre (Luis Perdomo). In 2017, Petco Park had a runs factor of 88 for left-handed hitters and 95 for right-handed hitters.

Chacin will now call Miller Park home. The park, notoriously known as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, had a runs factor of 104 for left-handed hitters and 103 for right-handed hitters in 2017.

Chacin’s final numbers, and his subsequent contact, look a lot less sexy when factoring in how much he benefited from Petco’s marine layer and spacious outfield. He more than likely won’t allow just eight home runs in over 100 innings at Miller Park, which he did last year at Petco. In contrast, he allowed 11 home runs in just 80 innings on the road.

If Chacin was signed to be a fixture in the Brewers’ rotation for the next two season, the club is likely to be disappointed. Chacin should be expected to regress solely because of his new home ballpark. The fact that he’ll be on the wrong side of 30 next month isn’t going to help.

At first glance, the Chacin signing seems like a shrewd move by Stearns. A simple investigation into his home/away splits shows why he came at such a cheap price in a starting pitcher hungry market. Brewers fans should be hoping Chacin isn’t seen as anything more than a #5 starter for the team over the next two years. If Brewers lore stops here and doesn’t plan on adding to an already depleted rotation with the loss of Jimmy Nelson, the team will struggle to finish above .500.

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In a vacuum, it makes sense for the Brewers to seek to trade Santana. The twenty-five-year-old is coming off a breakthrough season in which he posted an .876 on-base-plus-slugging percentage with 30 home runs and 15 stolen bases, good for a .306 TAv. The right fielder still has four seasons left of team control, and he won’t enter arbitration until next offseason.

In addition to Santana’s promising performance and contract situation is the Brewers current logjam in the outfield. As of right now, from left-to-right the team’s starting outfield looks like Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Santana; prospects like Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, and Corey Ray are waiting in the wings. The Brewers also have Hernan Perez, who is adequate in the outfield.

It doesn’t seem like Braun is going anywhere due to his no-trade clause, and Broxton will not garner anywhere near as much value in a trade as Santana due to his performance and age. Something has to give to make room for the teams young prospects. Santana seems to be the front offices’ choice as the odd man out.

Despite Santana’s success and the Brewers willingness to seek out a deal, a market that would appease David Stearns and company’s demand has not materialized, according to a report by Jerry Crasnick of ESPN. The disinterest in paying the presumable high asking price for the cost-controlled young outfielder has to do with his defensive troubles in the outfield and his questionably high luck-related statistics, namely batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB).

It’s no secret that Santana is a bad outfielder. By fielding runs above average (FRAA), he was fifth-worst in the league among 65 right-fielders at -7.6 FRAA. In 2015 and 2016 combined, he was worth -10 FRAA despite playing in just 115 games. Statcast ranked him 294th out of 309 outfielders according to their Outs Above Average metric. Santana didn’t make a single 4 or 5 star play in 38 attempts according to Statcast. Outfield defense only gets worse with age. Because Santana is atrocious in the outfield at age 24, he’ll likely be unplayable as he gets closer to 30. Teams don’t want to pay a premium for a future DH.

Compounding on Santana’s issues defensively was his alarmingly high BABIP and HR/FB in 2017. Santana had the six-highest BABIP in the league among those with over 500 plate appearances, at .363. He hovers around the likes of Avisail Garcia and Tim Beckham, who enjoyed fluky breakout seasons, Charlie Blackmon, who plays his home games in Coors Field, and Jose Altuve, who just won the American League MVP. BABIP is one of the first indicators that a player is playing over his head. Statcast’s Exit Velocity metric suggests Santana was a bit lucky with his balls in play this year. His average exit velocity was 89.3 MPH, putting him at 62nd in the league. He barreled the ball in just 5.6 percent of his plate appearances. Statcast’s findings are nothing to scoff at, but hardly indicative of a player who is going to have future success on balls in play. Inquiring teams are aware of this.

Not only did Santana have providential success on balls in play, but many more of his fly balls went from home runs than one would otherwise expect. His 30.9 HR/FB rate ranked behind just Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton among qualified hitters. Smart money is on that HR/FB rate to come down.

But Santana’s batted ball profile cannot afford for that HR/FB rate to come down. He is a ground ball despite what his power profile suggests. His ground ball percentage was up around 50 percent in 2017. If his HR/FB plummets, his power numbers will dwindle more than the average player due to his reliance on the ground ball unless he makes an adjustment in the meantime.

Front offices around the league are aware of these weaknesses and fortunate outcomes in Santana’s game. They aren’t going to pay top price for a product they expect to diminish in performance and value. This is why the Brewers need to hold onto Santana. The right fielder needs to prove that he can fix his defensive woes or that his batted ball profile is not a fluke with the Brewers before they can entertain the notion of trading him. Until then, they need to ride the Santana wave and see what kind of performance they can get out of him.

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Despite this uncharacteristic inactivity from teams across the league, the rumor mill is spinning. The destinations of the two biggest game changers presumed to be moved, Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton, has yet to be determined.

The uncertainty surrounding Ohtani and Stanton has created a gridlock throughout the league. Even though the Brewers are not rumored to be on the forefront for either player, the ripples that these two huge pieces create leaves the team stuck playing the waiting game.

All 30 teams are pitching themselves to Ohtani. No team can offer him more than $3.6 million, and Ohtani’s camp has all but ruled out the importance of money in his decision. In other words, every team has hope. Not only are the Brewers preparing their pitch for the Japanese superstar, in hopes he will pick the beautiful city of Milwaukee, but so are the 29 other clubs. Rather than focusing their attention on what, in a normal offseason, would be free agency and the trade market, teams are left dreaming on Ohtani.

Ohtani’s unique skill set can also completely transform the roster of whichever team he chooses. Teams are going to be reluctant to make a move before Ohtani’s decision due to simple roster dynamics. If Ohtani can be your ace reliever/starting left fielder three or four days a week, then there is no reason to fill those holes before Ohtani makes his much-anticipated decision.

Even if the Brewers were told they had no shot at Ohtani, which they haven’t been told, the gridlock would continue. Free agent pitchers such as Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish would be foolish to sign before the Ohtani decision. Whichever teams lose out will likely immediately turn their attention to frontline free agents such as Arrieta and Darvish. We can assume the Brewers are in serious talks with both Arrieta and Darvish, and yet the gridlock would continue due to the Ohtani factor.

On top of Ohtani’s presence, is what seems to be an inevitable Giancarlo Stanton trade. The four teams rumored to be in on Stanton, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, and St. Louis Cardinals, are some of the largest markets in the league. All four figure to be a big part of the free agent market if they lose out on Stanton.

Stanton’s monstrous contract would deem whichever team acquires him all but finished as far as the free agent market goes. Because these four teams are dreaming on Stanton, they are staying out of free agency until the Miami Marlins finally make a move. By essentially taking these four big-market teams out of free agency until Stanton is moved, free agents are left waiting to see who the losers are so they can join the market.

The Brewers are not exactly in the market for Stanton either. But players that they are in the market for, possibly Darvish or Arrieta, are going to wait to see if big-market teams, such as the Dodgers or Giants, join the hunt for big-name pitchers in lieu of losing out on Stanton.

The Brewers are stuck in the middle. They are no longer rebuilding. They figure to be a major player in this offseasons activity. Despite their position, they are essentially uninvolved with Ohtani and Stanton, which in turn leaves them out of any early activity.

Once these two important dominos fall, the logjam should clear for teams like the Brewers to step in. Free agents don’t normally prefer to go into January, and definitely not February, without a home. Moves are going to be made quickly. Hopefully, a month or two from now, we’ll be looking back on this offseason as one of the most active offseasons in recent Brewer history.

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The question is where the Brewers’ front office will decide to spend that money. There is speculation the team will go big and throw a large chunk of their resources toward a Jake Arrieta/Yu Darvish type to bolster their starting rotation. Adam McCalvy, MLB.coms Brewers beat writer, quoted Stearns saying “it makes sense to cast a wide net,” when referring to whether the team would spend big on a starting pitcher or not.

It would be a huge mistake to go all in on an expensive, aging starting pitcher. The Brewers’ entire rebuild model through savvy trades and bargain-bin free agent pick-ups would be disrupted. Not only would a high-profile free agent signing severely hold the Brewers back as far as financials go, it would create fewer opportunities for their excellent collections of prospects to find time in the big leagues.

A look at the two high-profile free agents with the most chatter linking them to the Brewers, Arrieta and Darvish, shows that although the two’s well-known names suggest ace-level production, they both have their flaws.

In Arrieta’s case, he wasn’t a great pitcher last year. He was worth just 2.5 wins above replacement player (WARP), along with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Deserved Runs Average (DRA) above 4.00. Arrieta was plagued by the long-ball and had a walks-per-9-innings rate near 3.0. 2017 was easily his worst full season since joining the Chicago Cubs, and the righty is also an older free agent due to his late start in the big leagues. He will turn 32 in Spring Training. Arrieta is expected to garner somewhere in the range of 100 million dollars over four or five years. The Brewers cannot afford to pay for the age 34, 35, or 36 seasons of a pitcher who was not even worth three WARP in his age 31 season.

Darvish had much more success in 2017, but he presumably comes with a higher price tag and more injury risk. He just threw over 150 innings for the first time since 2013. He has thrown over 200 innings only once in his career. Darvish is expected to garner at least 120-130 million dollars over five, six, or possibly seven seasons. All the Brewers’ eggs would likely be in the Darvish basket due to the large price tag.

Not only are both of these big-name starting pitchers almost as risky as they come, they don’t fit into the Brewers rebuild timeline. As of now, the team’s five-year outlook is rosy. Some prospects, Lewis Brinson in particular, have been slow in their promotion to the big leagues, but their farm system remains one of the best and deepest in baseball. Most of the major league club’s core is in their twenties. Draining all of their resources on a 30+ year-old starting pitcher moves their window up. Instead of building a long-term winner, they are gambling on the next few years.

The Brewers rotation wasn’t exactly a weak spot in 2017. Jimmy Nelson emerged as a Cy Young candidate until a shoulder injury ended his season. He is expected to miss significant time in 2018, but the Brewers have the starters to pick up most of the slack. Zach Davies, who has yet to turn 25, enjoyed the best season of his career at 3.4 WARP. Chase Anderson had his big breakthrough, posting 2.4 WARP in less than 150 innings. Brent Suter, who could be expected to open the season in the Brewers rotation, posted a 3.45 earned run average in 70 1/3 innings as a starter. As soon as Nelson returns from injury, one can squint and see the makings of a playoff caliber rotation.

David Stearns needs to spread the team’s resources. The team lacks any glaring holes; instead they need mild improvements across the board. Their rotation could use another middle-of-the-rotation piece such as C.C. Sabathia, Jhoulys Chacin, or Tyler Chatwood. They need more depth in the bullpen. There is no Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon in this free agent class, but there is an abundance of set-up reliever type assets. Addison Reed, Mike Minor, or Brandon Morrow could bolster the Brewers bullpen and ease the burden on the starting rotation at the same time. Two or three smaller moves such as these will lower risk while strengthening several areas of the roster rather than just one.

As much as Brewers fans want to see that big splash, it would be wise to stay away from the big-money signing and go the conservative route. This is not the offseason to be spending big. It seems as though the Brewers front office has no choice but to spend in order to build off the 2017 season, but the hunk of change gamble is not the way to go.

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Phillips, who was more valuable than Broxton in a quarter of the plate appearances this season, is younger, a stronger outfielder, a better hitter than his counterpart. Brett Phillips deserves to be the everyday centerfielder for the Milwaukee Brewers starting Opening Day 2018.

Phillips was drafted in the sixth round of the 2012 Major League Baseball draft by the Houston Astros. He was a part of the package that sent Carlos Gomez to the Astros at the 2015 trade deadline.

The prospect started out the 2017 season with the Brewers Class-AAA affiliate in Colorado Springs and had what was likely the best professional season of his career. He finished seventh in slugging percentage in the Pacific Coast League (PCL) at .567, while his 10.4 percent walk rate placed him twentieth in the league. Phillips’s excellent slugging percentage and solid walk rate made him the fifth-best hitter in the league according to OPS at .944.

Phillips supplements his offensive game with excellent baserunning. He has stolen 73 bases over six full minor league seasons since his debut in 2012. According to Baseball Prospectus, he has been worth 12.6 baserunning runs (BRR) since 2014 as a minor leaguer. In his short debut in the majors this year, Phillips stole five bases. Over that same small sample size in the majors, he was worth 0.3 BRR. Statcast’s Sprint Speed is on board as well, rating Phillips as the second fastest player on the Brewers roster last year at 28.2 ft./sec.

What sets Phillips apart is his defense. Despite playing in just 39 games, Phillips ranked 15^th in fielding runs above average (FRAA) at 4.4 runs and also had four outfield assists. MLB Pipeline’s Bernie Pleskoff says “He plays outstanding defense, with quick and correct reads of the ball off the bat, good range and speed to chase down balls hit to all directions.”

Phillips’s age leaves plenty of room for him to grow. Although he has been in professional baseball since 2012, he is still just 23 years old. He doesn’t turn 24 until the end of May. In contrast, Broxton will be 28 in May. Top prospect Lewis Brinson, who has consistently been seen as a higher-ceiling prospect than Phillips, will also turn 24 (in June 2017).

Phillips’s high strikeout rate is the only gaping hole in his game. His strikeout rate jumped from 29.9 percent in AAA this year to 34.7 percent in his short stint in the majors. If he can manage to get his strikeout rate back below 30 percent, his power numbers will more than make up for his lack of contact.

Compared to Brinson and Broxton, a lot less hype surrounds Brett Phillips. It isn’t clear why, given the all-round game he has displayed throughout his minor-league career and now in his major-league debut. As Anderle pointed out, Phillips was worth 1.1 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 98 plate appearances. Broxton was worth just 1.0 WARP in 463 PAs. Brinson was worth -0.2 WARP in 55 plate appearances.

The Brewers have decisions to make. Left and right field seem to be penciled in with Ryan Braun (seemingly) not going anywhere and Domingo Santana’s breakout 2017 season. The team has two centerfield prospects knocking at the door in Phillips and Brinson to go along with Broxton, everyone’s favorite breakout pick before the 2017 season. If no moves are made, the team would be wise to hand the job over to Brett Phillips, who has more than proven he can perform at a high level in the three most important aspects of the game.

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports Images.