On the surface, these are good outcomes. These are the outcomes that fans expected when the Brewers drafted Ray fifth overall in 2016—the club’s highest selection since Ryan Braun in 2005. On the surface, everything is fine.

Peel off the top layer, though, and all is not well. In 2017, Corey Ray batted .238 in his second tour of the class Advanced A Carolina League, on a well above average .346 BABIP. Ray struck out in 31 percent of his plate appearances, and ran a distinctly underwhelming .254 TAv. He slugged .367, which would have put him somewhere between Alcides Escobar and Dee Gordon had he produced that number in the major leagues. He is still three long, hard steps from the major leagues. These is not the outcomes that fans expected when the Brewers drafted Ray fifth overall in 2016.

So which is the real Corey Ray? The one who coasts along to flattering accolades on the strength of his draft pedigree, athleticism, and sweet, left-handed swing? Or the one who hasn’t figured out how to hit professional pitching after over 750 plate appearances?

Ultimately, Ray will have to answer those questions in 2018. He’ll be one of the most hawkishly-monitored prospects throughout the game. In order to assert himself in a strong Brewers system that’s packed to the gills with toolsy outfielders, he needs to produce. In the meantime, we can look to his Fall League performance for hints at what the future may hold. Across 15 games and 55 ABs with the Salt River Rafters, Ray exhibited all the traits that led the Brewers to call his name in 2016—and some familiar red flags, too.

Ray started his time as a Rafter with a bang, knocking a double off Cardinals September call-up (and number 39 mid-season prospect) Sandy Alcantara in his very first at bat. In his next 25 plate appearances, Ray was hitless, failed to draw a walk, and struck out six times, leading to a woeful .038 batting average.

Over his next eight games, Ray hit .367 across 30 at bats with five walks against nine strikeouts. He cracked a two-run homer and added a pair of doubles and three stolen bases. In the Fall Stars game last Saturday, Ray batted second and hustled out an infield single in the first inning off Mitch Keller. He proceeded to steal second, and then third, base. In his next three at bats he struck out swinging twice and drew a walk.

In all, Ray’s performance in the AFL has intrigued, frustrated, and inspired. His potential is clear; his limitations equally so. Since his draft day, he’s answered questions about his glove, blossoming into a comfortably above-average defensive outfielder (note his 12.7 FRAA in 2017). But his prototypical “advanced college bat” has struggled with making contact and tapping into his plus raw power. While his future could still be plenty bright, it could also be that of a glove-first fourth outfielder. (For giggles, check out Ray’s comparable players, including Austin Jackson, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Brett Phillips.)

Next year will be a big one for Ray. Center field remains an area of interest for the major league club; a strong performance could send the first-round pick rocketing up the depth chart. But if Ray can’t find consistency with his bat, he’ll find himself buried behind other outfield options. For now, he’s riding a hot streak in the AFL with eight games to play. Time will tell if it’s the beginning of an awakening or a glimpse into what could have been.

#Brewers pitching prospect Nathan Kirby, out two years with pair of elbow surgeries, is pitching in squad games in instructional ball.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) September 26, 2017

His BP profile page might not reflect it yet, as it still sits vacant dating back to 2015, but one of the Brewers’ most intriguing mothballed minor-leaguers is finally getting his professional career off the ground.

Nathan Kirby was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2015 amateur draft, 40th overall, by the Brewers out of the University of Virginia. At the time, it was considered a great value pick by the Brewers. Kirby had been a candidate to go in the top 10, or even the top 5, just months before the June draft. But inconsistent stuff and command, plus a strained lat that sidelined him for a time, plagued his senior year and he slipped to the supplemental round.

Just five appearances into his professional career, the Brewers shut Kirby down for Tommy John surgery, which is a fate that surprised few, given how he had regressed as a pitcher in 2015. Kirby missed all of 2016 rehabbing from the surgery, and this spring the team elected to keep him at extended spring training when the season started. But something still felt wrong.

#Brewers team doc William Raasch diagnosed Kirby with ulnar neuritis. So, he had ulnar nerve transposition surgery today by Raasch.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) May 9, 2017

Thanks to this latest setback, Kirby is just now getting to a mound again in late September, and has lost two full years of development since getting drafted. Going forward, it’s impossible to say what to expect from the once-promising lefthander.

In 2013, Kirby’s freshman year, he pitched primarily out of the bullpen for Virginia, making 22 relief appearances and 2 starts. His strikeout ratio aside, he didn’t really look the part of a future star that year, and three other freshman pitchers–Brandon Waddell, Josh Sborz, and Trey Oest–all saw more innings than Kirby. But that summer he pitched for the Keene Swamp Bats of the New England Collegiate League, won a spot in the Swamp Bats’ starting rotation, and went 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in seven starts and a relief appearance. Kirby’s 12.56 strikeouts per nine innings were enough to turn some heads, too, and the sophomore was able to ride the momentum into Virginia’s 2014 starting rotation.

That year, Kirby made his case for a future career in the Major Leagues. He struck out 112 batters in 113.1 innings, posted a sterling 2.07 ERA, and issued just 2.63 walks per nine innings. And in those 113-plus innings, he surrendered just one home run. On April 4, 2015, he recorded probably the best pitching performance of the 2015 season by a collegiate hurler: an 18-strikeout no-hitter against the Pitt Panthers.

But just as quickly as Kirby had emerged, the hype was extinguished. Kirby’s walk rate spiked in 2015, from 2.62 to 4.5 BB/9, and he missed significant time with what was called a strained lat. Despite Virginia’s triumph at the College World Series, despite his polished surface stats, Kirby’s draft stock tumbled. When the Brewers found him available at 40 overall, it was too tantalizing to pass up.

Looking back, it’s not hard to isolate the significant factors which led to Kirby’s arm problems. As a 19-year-old college freshman in 2013, he pitched just north of 75 innings combined between spring and summer. He pitched out of the bullpen for the Cavaliers in the spring, and averaged fewer than seven innings per start for the Swamp Bats in the summer. One year later, in the above docu-short about Kirby’s historic no-hitter, his coach looked at the camera straight-faced as can be and said “It’s just amazing that you throw a no-hitter, and you have 18 strikeouts, and only throw 120-some pitches.”

(I added the boldface myself to highlight one of the most irresponsible butcherings of the English language I have ever heard come from the mouth of an adult human. “Only” 120-some pitches. He actually effing said that. That’s like going in to the doctor for your physical, and he wants to test you for STDs, and you tell him that you don’t need to bother because you’ve “only” had 50 new sexual partners in the year since your last physical. These are not contexts in which use of the word “only” is correct. But I digress…)

In addition to this sudden and violent acceleration of workload, Kirby the college pitcher had the type of mechanics that are all but guaranteed to result in serious injury.

Why isn't Nathan Kirby bouncing back from Tommy John surgery? Call it Terrible T. https://t.co/COKVjHTPOl And @mayoclinicsport teaches it. pic.twitter.com/KUNOXHT6bo

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 23, 2017

That “Terrible T” that Chris O’Leary refers to in the tweet and the blog post it links to also appears in Tucker Blair’s BP Eyewitness Report on Kirby, which was written on the one-year anniversary of his 18-strikeout no-hitter that “only” took 120-some pitches. Blair calls it an “exaggerated stab,” not a “terrible T,” but the straight-arm pause pictured above is what both writers are communicating through very different phrasing. As O’Leary, a former collegiate hitting instructor who counts several current and former professional players among his clients, concedes in his blog post, this technique is effective in creating rapid, short-term velocity gains for young pitchers, “but those velocity gains are achieved by overloading the arm. It’s like running a car engine past the redline. It works. For a while.”

By the time Blair was scouting Kirby, his arm was already the equivalent of a dying engine that idles loudly and struggles to generate the power it’s capable of. Blair harshly graded his command as “fringe” to “fringe-average” across all three of his pitches, and repeatedly hammered his mechanics throughout the report, even suggesting bluntly that they “are in much need of work.” But don’t take his word for it. You can see the problem yourself in this video shared by FanGraphs in the leadup to the ’15 draft:

If you’re wondering why I cued the video in at the six second mark, well, it’s because that point marks the first of eight consecutive pitches in 40 seconds from the exact same camera angle; perfect for watching a pitcher’s mechanics over and over. And wouldn’t you know it, on each and every pitch thrown by Kirby his pitching arm comes to a complete stop in that exaggerated, straightened position before whipping forward wildly. Rather than his throwing arm working in sync with his lower body, that exaggerated stretch back and extended pause cause his lower body to come out of the stretch ahead, and his arm has to work overtime to catch up. This is exactly what O’Leary calls “running the engine past the redline,” how a pitcher can overstrain his elbow and shoulder to bleed extra velocity out of his arm. It’s simply not sustainable long-term.

That the Brewers are taking their time with Kirby, by keeping him in extended Spring Training early on this year, and now working him out patiently in the instructional league, is a good sign for the team, and its fans. He can still be a successful Major League pitcher. Fans would be foolish to expect that he will be a successful Major League pitcher, but he’s still just 23 and has proven himself capable of pitching at a high level. His fastball, slider, and curveball have all flashed plus at various points throughout his young career, and his changeup is capable of generating a lot of ugly, swinging strikes off of said fastball. Two years ago, before noting that his mechanics need refinement, Tucker Blair assessed in his conclusion that “there is a feel for pitching” in Kirby, and while you can teach proper mechanics, you can’t teach that. Put that whole package together and you’ve got a pitcher who could potentially help a Major League rotation someday. But it will be a far longer, and far less certain, journey to that destination than anyone foresaw in June of 2015.

AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox (80-57)

MVP: OF Brett Phillips

After a down year in AA last season, Phillips re-established himself as a promising outfield prospect this season with the Sky Sox. He finished fourth on the team in plate appearances despite a few stints in the big leagues, lead the club in home runs, and was second in RBI. He struck out more than one would like to see (29.9 percent) but posted a solid 10.4 percent walk rate and Phillips seems to have truly settled in as an above-average defender in center field.

432 PA || .305/.377/.567 || 19 HR || 9 SB || .295 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Taylor Jungmann

Not too long ago, it looked like Jungmann might become a fixture in Milwaukee’s rotation. He was awful last season in the majors and minors, but bounced back with a terrific performance in Colorado Springs in 2017. Jungmann spent some time with both the big league club and the AA Shuckers, but made 17 appearances and tossed 90.3 innings for the Sky Sox this season. In that time he posted a 2.59 ERA, the lowest earned run average a Sky Sox pitcher has authored in that many innings this century. A DRA- of 78 agrees that Jungmann was much better than the league-average pitcher, but that still wasn’t enough to merit a September call-up, casting some doubt on Taylor’s future with the organization.

90.3 IP || 2.59 ERA || 4.04 DRA || 82 K || 39 BB || 4 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 48% GB

AA Biloxi Shuckers (71-66)

MVP: C Jacob Nottingham

Biloxi is a tough venue for hitters, evidenced by the fact that only two Shuckers received more than 300 plate appearances and posted above a .700 OPS. Jacob Nottingham was not one of those players, compiling a .695 OPS with 9 homers and 48 RBI across 101 games. That was still good enough for a slightly above-average TAv, but most important for Nottingham’s value this season were the steps forward he took behind the plate. He graded out with +7.1 framing runs, caught 40% of would-be base thieves, and sliced his passed balls by more than 50% from last season. It’s looking more and more like Nottingham will be able to stay behind the plate, now the bat just has to start coming along a little bit more.

385 PA || .209/.326/.369 || 9 HR || 7 SB || .263 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Aaron Wilkerson

When you’re a 28 year old minor league veteran, it can get tough to convince and organization that you still deserve a shot at the big leagues. Aaron Wilkerson was able to do just that with an outstanding showing for the Shuckers this year. He started 24 games and tossed 142.3 innings, both tops on the club. He struck out more than a batter per inning while demonstrating his signature control, ultimately earning his first call-up to the MLB this September. Now that Wilkerson has broken through on to the 40 man and into The Show, he could compete for a starting rotation slot or spot in the bullpen as a swingman next spring.

142.3 IP || 3.16 ERA || 2.32 DRA || 143 K || 36 BB || 12 HR || 1.07 WHIP || 37% GB

High-A Carolina Mudcats (73-65)

MVP: OF Troy Stokes

In an organization crowded with outfield talent, Stokes finally managed to stay healthy and stand out this season. The 2014 4th-rounder played in 100 games for Carolina and lead the team in OPS, was 2nd in home runs and runs batted in, and fourth in stolen bases. A diminutive specimen, Stokes has demonstrated plus speed to go along with above-average power, and finished out the season with a strong 35 game run in AA Biloxi. He’s certainly put himself on the front office’s radar with his performance in 2017.

426 PA || .250/.344/.445 || 14 HR || 21 SB || .279 TAv

Related Reading:
Stoked for Carolina

Pitcher: RHP Jordan Yamamoto

Corbin Burnes (who was the org’s minor league pitcher of the year) and Freddy Peralta both had excellent partial seasons with Carolina, but we’ll give the nod here to Yamamoto for spending all year with the Mudcats. The 21 year old Hawaiian captured the league’s ERA title after finishing with 14.0 consecutive shutout innings, struck out better than a batter per inning and didn’t allow many walks. He throws four pitches and generally locates well, and there’s a possibility that the former 12th round pick can be a back-end starter at the big league level.

111.0 IP || 2.51 ERA || 2.80 DRA || 113 K || 30 BB || 8 HR || 1.09 WHIP || 40% GB

A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (59-79)

MVP: OF Monte Harrison

Wisconsin was the worst offensive team in the Midwest League this season, so there’s not a whole lot of strong performers to choose from. We’ll give the nod to Monte Harrison, who only spent a half season with the T-Rats but was an offensive dynamo for Wisconsin before getting a mid-season promotion. Finally healthy, Harrison flashed the power/speed potential that made him such a tantalizing draft prospect back in 2014. He looked good in center field, too. It’s tough not to buy in when he’s praised a 2018 Breakout Candidate with tools that rival that of Lewis Brinson’s.

261 PA || .265/.359/.475 || 11 HR || 11 SB || .307 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Thomas Jankins

Within the organization only Corbin Burnes and Aaron Wilkerson tossed more innings than Jankins’ 141.7 for Wisconsin this season, and he certainly made them quality ones. A 13th-round pick in 2016, Jankins was considered a “projectable” pick by Baseball America due to his lack of exposure to high-end coaching. It seems he’s now thriving in Milwaukee’s ranks, utilizing a three-pitch mix to attack batters and generate ground balls. He has a starter’s build and repertoire and is certainly someone to keep an eye on going forward.

141.7 IP || 3.62 ERA || 2.53 DRA || 121 K || 32 BB || 14 HR || 1.22 WHIP || 55% GB

Related reading:
Meet Thomas Jankins

Rookie Helena Brewers (28-48)

MVP: 1B/3B/OF Gabriel Garcia

A 14th-round pick by the Brewers in the 2016 draft, Garcia has done nothing but hit since joining the professional ranks. The 19 year old lead the Brewers in plate appearances this season, had the most doubles, the third-most long balls, second-most RBI, and second-best OPS among batters with at least 200 PA. Drafted as a catcher, Garcia played mostly first base this year but also made over a dozen starts at third and a few appearances in the outfield. It will be interesting to see how well his offensive performances translate to full-season ball next year.

285 PA || 300/.420/.498 || 9 HR || 6 SB || .296 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Gabe Friese

Friese was an passed over in this summer’s draft and signed with Milwaukee as a free agent. After tossing 20.1 innings in Maryvale without allowing an earned run, Friese was bumped up to Helena to finish out the summer. In a league that is notoriously hitter-friendly, the results remained strong for Friese. In 33.0 innings for the Brewers, Friese yielded a 3.82 ERA and 4.24 DRA. For some context, that translates to a DRA- of 63, or 37 percent better than the average Pioneer League pitcher. As a 22 year old who was a bit old for the level, it’s tough to know what we should expect from Friese going forward. If his 0.8 BB/9 rate can continue, though, he’s likely to keep finding success as he climbs the minor league ladder.

33.0 IP || 3.82 ERA || 4.24 DRA || 26 K || 3 BB || 4 HR || 1.27 WHIP || 50% GB

Rookie Arizona Brewers (33-23)

MVP: 1B/OF Pat McInerney

Passed over after his senior season at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, McInerny signed with Milwaukee following the draft and was assigned to the AZL, where he was more than two years older than the average player. McInerney took advantage of the inferior competition. He finished second on the club with 230 PA, tied for the league lead in home runs, took the fourth-most walks, and had the league’s 8th-best OPS. He showed some versatility, too, playing both left and right field in addition to first base. He did strike out 65 times in 50 games, though. McInerney could be a guy that sticks around the org for awhile, but given his advanced age he’ll have to show an awful lot if he hopes to ever reach the big leagues.

230 PA || .243/.378/.487 || 9 HR || 8 SB || .288 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Joaquin De La Cruz

De La Cruz began the season in the Dominican Summer League, but after our starts got his first stateside promotion to Arizona. He wound up tossing the third-most innings on the club while posting the league’s fifth-lowest ERA and the eighth-best strikeout rate (minimum 40 IP). De La Cruz doesn’t throw especially hard, but does feature a splitter, which is the organization’s favorite pitch. He’s got a long ways to climb before reaching the big league level, but at the very least his statistics appear promising.

42.7 IP || 2.53 ERA || 3.10 DRA || 46 K || 20 BB || 0 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 56% GB

Related Reading:
Joaquin De La Cruz and Second Chances

Dominican Summer League (Brewers 28-43, Indians/Brewers 23-47)

MVP: 1B/3B Aaron Familia

18 year old Familia signed with Milwaukee last summer and completed his second season in the DSL in 2017. Only two players in the DSL hit more home runs than Familia this summer, and he had the 13th-best OPS among qualifiers. At 6’2″ and 170 lbs, Familia still has plenty of filling out to do and could add to his raw power potential. He could make the jump stateside next season, though hopefully his swing-and-miss tendencies (70 strikeouts) will improve as he climbs the minor league ladder.

237 PA || .289/.422/.455 || 5 HR || 3 SB || .318 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Freisis Adames

Adames got a bit of a late start to his career in comparison to others in the DSL, not signing until last year at 19. As such he was a bit old for the league this summer, and he was one of the top hurlers on the circuit. Adames worked the league’s fourth-most innings, finished second in strikeouts, and even tossed a complete game shutout. His ERA was about a half-run lower than league average, but a DRA- of 41 suggests that Adames’ performance was a whopping 59 percent better than the typical DSL arm in 2017. Hopefully he too will get the opportunity to make the jump stateside next season, where it will be easier for scouts to give us a clue about what sort of stuff Adames is working with.

74.7 IP || 3.13 ERA || 1.98 DRA || 80 K || 21 BB || 1 HR || 1.12 WHIP || 59% GB

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire, USAToday Sports Images

There are methodological shortcomings to both scouting and statistical reports. Scouting reports have shortcomings in terms of potential observer biases or preferences, limited looks (even some organizations draft a player after only one look), and privileged information (or, at times, even intentional asymmetrical information from clandestine “sources”); statistics are impacted by all the contextual factors present at the MLB level, but perhaps even moreso age, quality of competition, developmental cycle (i.e., first trip to a level), and proprietary development assignments that will typically be unknown to external observers. These factors diminish the meaning of minor league statistis.

BPMilwaukee benefits from work with the Baseball Prospectus scouting team, which consistently uses a radical “eyes in the field” approach to drive scouting reports that are therefore often divergent from, and perhaps less hype-worthy (a good thing), than many industry competitors. (One example here would be the 2016 approach to RHPs Brandon Woodruff and Phil Bickford, compared to sources like FanGraphs and BaseballAmerica). To supplement reports, which can be gathered from BP player pages and daily prospect summaries published on the website, statistical analysis can be applied to index contextual factors that could impact the perception of a player’s performance. To this end, I will publish a two part series detailing the contextual factors impacting Brewers regular (or semiregular) batting and pitching minor leaguers, which should hopefully add information to the use of scouting lines throughout the offseason.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, Outfield Michael Reed played during his age-24 season at Class-AA Biloxi, and the Southern League had a median age of 24; therefore, Reed’s age index is 1.00 (after all these years, Reed is still not “old” for advanced minor league ball).

For system wide reference, here is a key:

For this exercise, I indexed Age, TAv, Opposing OPS (oppOPS), and Park Factor statistics drawn from Baseball Prospectus CSV (retrieved September 13, 2017). These categories do not exhaust the information available, but they are arguably foundations for measuring the typical quality of the regular players in the league, the quality of opposing pitchers, and any extreme (or not) park environments. Note that I did not focus on Rookie classes (Pioneer League, Arizona League, or Dominican Summer League), as those leagues are not only (arguably) more instructional in nature but also representative of professionals at their earliest stages of development (therefore, I am not quite certain what Rookie class stats “say”).

I used two methods:

• Once I created an Index for each of these statistics, I weighted each player’s OPS by assessing it against the Opposing OPS quality and contextual factors. Again, 1.00 can be read as average; below 1.00 can be read as below average, while above 1.00 can be read as better than average.
• To provide a quality control for this rudimentary method, I used a basic TAv Index. Since Total Average is already scaled to many contextual factors, it more accurately reflects a player’s performance within a specific run, park, and league environment (certainly moreso than OPS).
• By using a 50 Plate Appearance cut off, I captured 72 batting seasons performed by 63 Brewers minor leaguers.

A few observations:

• The very best statistical performances within the minor league system have varying degrees of scouting support. Keston Hiura, for example, was advertised as one of the best bats in the 2017 Draft (perhaps the most advanced college bat, even), and Hiura indeed scorched the Midwest League to the tune of a .326 TAv; he did so while being young for his league (during his first pro go-around), facing solid to slightly-tough opponents, and a moderate park environment. Jake Gatewood may have been the surprise breakout of the season, combining new contact lenses and mechanical advancements to pummel both Class-Advanced A and Class-AA leagues. Monte Harrison was another strong tools prospect – really, a fantastic athlete – that finally played a healthy season. Harrison and Gatewood diverge in terms of the type of Overall Future Potential roles they have, but here they converge in making great strides in showcasing their tools in 2017. On the other hand, Troy Stokes does not necessarily have the full scouting pedigree behind his statistical performance, which makes his 2017 season eye opening in terms of assessing an organizational depth role. Garrett Cooper was advanced minor league depth who went on to post a .275 TAv in 45 injury-shortened PA with the Yankees.

• Much has been made of the disappointing season by the much-hyped gang of Carolina bats (Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Isan Diaz, and Trent Clark). However, it should be underscored that they did not actually have bad seasons. At worst, they had arguably average seasons when considering their age and developmental status (each facing a new league the first time through). However, what is interesting is that each player has new scouting reports on potential flaws that could indeed impact Overall Future Potential; for example, a midseason 2017 eyewitness report downgraded Ray’s role, and several other members of the prospect team confirmed hit tool concerns throughout the season. This type of scouting concern cycle was repeated for several of these prospects, but it is worth nothing this was also scouts’ first full look at Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg. In this case, one ought to hold the conclusions on statistical and scouting assessments for another season, as more information will be necessary to understand these potential shortcomings. Anyway, hold the hype (and really, be healthy about hype in the first place!).

• There are a ton of interesting sleepers around here. Some interesting reports are floating around regarding infielder Wendell Rijo, for example, but the second baseman has never really flashed the stats. This year, Rijo graded solidly both in terms of contextual OPS and TAv. Clint Coulter remained young for his level (Class-AA Biloxi in 2017), and posted some intriguing peripheral statistics to go along with his overall solid line. Granted, there are few emerging reports on either of these players yet, which leaves room for a healthy dose of skepticism about future role. But, it’s worth remembering that many of these guys are so young when drafted that they remain young even through several repeated stages of Advanced ball development; hanging around at that upper level, one wonders what might come of a guy like Coulter after Garrett Cooper received trade interest.

• In terms of melding scouting pedigree and performance, Brett Phillips might have the best season of any Brewers prospect. While many viewed his 2016 campaign as a disappointment, there were several aspects of Phillips’s game that exhibited strengths even through the perceived weaknesses of his stat line. Of course, Phillips was also quite young for his level. The intriguing “elite”-4th Outfielder-to-potential CF or RF starter put it all together in 2017, including a couple of stunning cups of coffee in the MLB (including a 2-for-4, three RBI night with an Outfield Assist against the Pirates on Wednesday). Hiura has the flashiest immediate hype and performance, but Phillips’s full season production and realization of one aspect of his MLB future could arguably win him “Best Bat” of the system for 2017. I gather that someone like Monte Harrison most deserves a “Player of the Year” Award, but Phillips should not be discounted when considering the Brewers system’s best players.

The one full-season club that hasn’t made much noise all season long is the lower A ball club, Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. The T-Rats sit at a lowly 53-75 even after last night’s 4-3 win over Peoria, which places them as the 2nd-worst team among the 16 squads that comprise the Midwest League. Their struggles have come on both sides of the ball, as Wisconsin owns the worst collective OPS in the league (.644) as well as the 3rd-worst earned run average (4.45).

It hasn’t been all disappointment for Wisconsin this season, however. A few of the prospects on the roster have stood out this season, including one of the top performing pitchers in the Midwest League this season.

Thomas Jankins was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 13th round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, a school known more for its prominent polling institute than for its athletic programs. Jankins was the third-highest selection from the school since the draft moved to June in 1986; the university has sent only one alumnus – longtime reliever Turk Wendell – all the way to the major leagues. If early indications mean anything, however, Jankins may be well on his way to joining Wendell by appearing in the big leagues someday.

After inking for a $100,000 bonus, Jankins hit the ground running as a professional. He began his career in Helena, as collegiate signees often do after the draft. In four games with the Brewers, the righty allowed four runs in 11.7 innings, but a nifty 14:2 K/BB ratio helped prompt a bump up to Wisconsin to finish out 2016. He made eight appearances down the stretch for the Timber Rattlers last season, compiling a 3.20 ERA/3.51 DRA with 21 strikeouts and 6 walks in 25.3 innings pitched.

Assigned back to Wisconsin for his age-21 season in 2017, Jankins has shone for the Timber Rattlers throughout the year. He’s been a model of consistency and durability, making 25 appearances and pitching a league-leading 131.7 innings. Jankins’s 3.76 ERA is easily better than the league average of 3.94, but even that doesn’t accurately depict how well he’s pitched this season. His 2.76 Deserved Run Average translates to a DRA- of 60.5, or 39.5 percent better than the Midwest League average. That means he’s been one of the most effective starters on the circuit in 2017.

Jankins possesses a starter’s build at 6’3″ tall and 200 lbs, and creates quite a difficult downward plane for hitters by coming from a high three-quarters arm slot, nearly over the top. He uses this angle to help generate plenty of ground balls, which he’s induced at a 56 percent rate this season. According to a pre-draft report from Baseball America, on a good night Jankins was sitting in the 89-92 MPH range with his fastball coming out of Quinnipiac, and could touch 93 MPH at times. BA praised his fastball for having above-average sink and noted that he’d shown flashes with both a curveball and changeup. Because of his lack of exposure to high-level coaching, Jankins was viewed as “projectable” by many scouts when he was coming out.

Thomas Jankins 6 K’s #TRats pic.twitter.com/pKDS4UdpnC

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) July 22, 2017

The Brewers were obviously intrigued by what they saw in Jankins, and things have been working out quite well thus far. His stuff doesn’t jump off the board, but Jankins produces quality outing after quality outing by keeping the ball on the ground and limiting free passes – he’s walked just 5.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced this season, and his 2.1 BB/9 ranks 8th-best among Midwest League arms that have thrown at least 100 innings. He can miss a bat or two as well with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate this season, though his 7.6 K/9 does sit just below the league average. Jankins has been pitching especially well of late; he’s posted a 2.29 ERA over his last 63.0 innings and was Wisconsin’s pitcher of the month for July.

The Milwaukee Brewers have had some notable successes with popping collegiate arms in the later arms of the MLB Draft in recent years. Jacob Barnes (14th round, 2011), Brent Suter (31st round, 2012), and Brandon Woodruff (11th round, 2014) have all played roles on the big league club this season. In the minors, meanwhile, Jon Perrin (27th round, 2015) and Quintin Torres-Costa (35th round, 2015) have already shot through the system up to Class-AA this season, and both Jankins and Cameron Roegner (22nd round, 2016) are having success in Wisconsin.

It just goes to show that every pick matters in the MLB Draft. Even in the later rounds, an org can find future setup men (Barnes), swingmen/back end starters (Suter), or even a top pitching prospect if things go well developmentally (Woodruff). Time will tell if Thomas Jankins falls into one of those categories, but based off his physical and statistical profile, he’s certainly a player to keep an eye on going forward.

In the cases of both Woodruff and Burnes, the answer is quick and easy, “no” and “no.” Neither pitcher has the combination of raw stuff, command of that stuff, and mechanical execution that renders those 70 or 80 Overall Future Potential (OFP) grades (since OFP operates on a scale of 20 to 80, the top grade is obvious ace territory, and the 70 grade usually runs a “1/2 pitcher” description that makes that grade worth including in “ace” territory). Of course, in the case of Woodruff and Burnes, both pitchers were not even listed as Top 5 arms within the Brewers system by Baseball Prospectus entering 2017. The duo fell behind Top 10 rankers…

• LHP Josh Hader (55-60 OFP, #3 SP or #4 SP / high leverage relief)
• RHP Luis Ortiz (50-60 OFP, #3/#4 SP)
• RHP Cody Ponce (45-50 OFP, average starter / late inning relief or #4/#5 SP or solid relief)

…as well as “Others of Note” RHP Devin Williams (“classic projectable righty”) and RHP Marcos Diplan (“probably future relief” but has “polish and command”). In fact, it is arguable that even with the top five arms in the system, the Brewers do not have an ace.

There is certainly an argument to be made that scouting is an imperfect science, and that perhaps the BP scouting team did not properly price Woodruff’s secondary stuff progression in Class-AA Biloxi, or that they underrated Burnes’s draft day pedigree and almost immediate professional ball impact. Yet, since the BP team bases their scouting approach upon an on-the-ground team that values actual looks, and arguably has more aggressively realistic future prospect grades than other outlets, it is difficult to see the exclusion of either Woodruff or Burnes from the 2017 Top 10 (and “Others of Note”) lists as mistakes. Similarly, accurate “useful middle to back rotation” scouting profiles might indeed “rank” lower than 15th in this Brewers system, but (more importantly) that ranking is not an insult to either player because useful MLB player should never be viewed as a slight on a prospect report.

To complicate matters, even the “accurate” ace grades do not always work out. Perhaps the best current case for this is RHP Lucas Giolito, who ranked atop the White Sox system in 2015 and landed the coveted 70 / 80 OFP (elite starting pitcher or #1/#2 starting pitcher). Giolito was a projected “ace” for many reasons:

“fastball easily works 93-97; can reach back for more; big arm-side run in lower band (93-95); explosive offering; can already throw to all four quadrants; curve shows deep two-plane break; power pitch; adept at replicating arm slot and disguise to fastball; high confidence in offering; will use at any point in the count; commands to both sides of the plate; already plus to better; elite potential; flashes feel for change; turns over with a loose wrist; displays fade with late drop; early makings of strong pitchability.”

Obviously, fans are inclined to take the good without the bad, and running with that Giolito grade also required the downsides: “Lot of body to control; can drift during landing and open early; diminishes fastball command at times; still in the early stages of building stamina; some effort in delivery wears him down; stuff can get loose and sloppy deeper into outings; velocity trails off third time through; will wrap wrist when delivering curve from time to time; change has gap to close to reach on-paper potential; loses action when throws too hard; doesn’t presently command pitch well; leaves up in zone due to early release.” Giolito was the ace in 2015, but even though he’s since dropped in rankings, the new Giolito remains a rarity in a farm system (a 60 OFP, #3 starter).

This exercise could go on and on. As far as 70 OFP aces go, recently there’s Zack Wheeler, Dylan Bundy, Taijuan Walker, Jonathan Gray, and Alex Reyes to consider. These pitchers have had their ups and for the most part remain coveted arms for nearly an organization insofar as few rotations would reject these contributors. But even with great performers like Michael Fulmer, the equation is tough; Fulmer was a 55 OFP with questions about injury and consistency that could potentially impede a #2 type starter. There is no exact science to aces, and picking one is hardly even an artform.

Even Yovani Gallardo, “an outstanding pitching prospect,” missed the ace label and was hit with “#2 and occasional All-Star” as OFP. Should 20.3 WARP signify a #2 arm, that designation would probably serve Burnes, Hader, and Woodruff quite well (and I gather Gallardo’s career earnings justify that, as well).

My standby comment to respond to Burnes / Hader / Woodruff ace talk, or the Brewers system in general, is to comment “aces do not exist.” This is not a throwaway comment, either. Aces do not exist, in the sense that from a scouting profile the grade is so rare as to basically be obsolete within the minor leagues; in the sense of performance, it is categorically true that few pitchers can be great, especially consistently so. The fun with Brew Crew Ball leader and BPMilwaukee Prospect Editor Kyle Lesniewski’s #2016BrewersAce coverage of RHP Junior Guerra is that it hit on something quite central to baseball: even in the most unorthodox historical package, Guerra emerged to dominate batters in 2016. Guerra prevented 22 runs in 2016, a feat hardly matched by a dozen arms in the NL; his splitter was one of the most effective of all time in terms of Brooks Baseball tracking, meaning that Guerra had the stuff to back up the moniker. It was both immensely fun and funny for Guerra to serve as ace, funny in the sense that the Brewers missed front rotation potential in several drafts, but landed it in the form of an age-31 rookie claimed off waivers.

In the sense that Guerra was an ace, I suspect many Brewers fans believe Burnes or Woodruff or Hader could be an ace. This is an interesting problem to discuss because it runs deep beyond semantics. It is not merely semantics to say that a “scouting ace” and a “statistical ace” are different; the difference could land the Brewers a pennant. The trouble with this determination is that it is no easier to define the dominance of a statistical ace. For example, can an ace be one-off? Could an ace have a one-and-hopefully-not-done season, perhaps like Guerra’s 2016 campaign, or does an ace require multiple (consecutive, even!) years of success in order to be termed “an ace”? But in this sense, someone like Kyle Lohse becomes an ace, which is certainly not how many fans (especially not Brewers fans) use the term; but Lohse was a fantastic pitcher from 2011-2014, posting four consecutive better than average runs prevented campaigns.

One might call this the classic, “Is Yovani Gallardo an ace?” question. Obviously this stuff is more than semantics, because we still are inclined to talk about it in 2017. It matters to fans to say, while discussing Burnes or Hader or Woodruff, someone like Gallardo might not be an ace but was a very, very good pitcher, perhaps the next level immediately behind ace (a true #2 starter, perhaps). The table above is obviously just one captured moment in time, as it excludes 2009 and 2010 campaigns in which Gallardo was phenomenal (2.98 and 3.49 Deserved Runs Average (DRA) respectively, with 185+ IP both years) and Lohse was in transition and recovering from injuries. In either case, perhaps neither Lohse nor Gallardo are “aces” in the aspirational sense of the term, but both pitchers were among the top Senior Circuit starters for an extended period of time.

Data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FeW8mCqDqzf6e6OGlq4SwP0tmIYlT2cpcG288mLQCDw/edit?usp=sharing

But, it’s worth chasing “aces,” and certainly a definition as such. I dove into my runs prevented data, kept annually from 2009-2011 at Sportsbubbler and Bernie’s Crew (unfortunately 2009-2010 are lost), 2012-2015 at Disciples of Uecker, and 2016 personally (officially unpublished). Analyzing a set of 845 individual pitching seasons reveals quite stunning variance that underscores the difficulty of defining acehood.

The big data are not thrilling; a 16 runs prevented season does not strike the “acehood” sense quite like Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke when they reach 50 runs prevented in a season. Yet, isolating those 85 pitching seasons above the 16 runs prevented threshold is quite interesting. Indeed, Junior Guerra was an ace in 2016, and by quite a bit (22 runs prevented being significantly better than 16); Gallardo and Lohse are definitely aces; so was Ian Kennedy, Jair Jurrjens, Dan Straily, Doug Fister, Kris Medlen, Wade Miley, Jhoulys Chacin, Henderson Alvarez, and of course Bronson Arroyo. What is striking about this list is the lack of regulars; only 20 pitchers in the 2011-2016 National League reached 16 runs prevented in two (or more) seasons:

This, if anything, should underscore the rarity and strangeness of acehood. Madison Bumgarner has reached 16 runs prevented exactly twice, and in this definition would be exactly as much an ace as Tanner Roark. What’s intriguing about this argument is that by constructing the counterpoint that there is more to being an ace than preventing runs, such as pitching consistently throughout multiple seasons, or consistently serving as a workhorse, acehood once again becomes something that is quite murky and ill-defined. In order to argue that Tanner Roark is not an ace but Madison Bumgarner is, one is required to shift slightly away from peak performance, and search for criteria that will ultimately dissolve the definition of an ace.

Incidentially, only 20 starters in the 2011-2016 NL worked at least 200 innings more than once, although the list diverges quite a bit from the 20 runs prevented aces above. Here, again, Yovani Gallardo answers that ace question with years of consistency:

Combining innings pitched and runs prevented, one can truly see the amount of variance that is inherent in pitching performance, which should be the last nail in the coffin of “acehood” and thus (hopefully) relieve the pressure on the Brewers to develop “aces.”

For this aspect of analysis, I constructed a times series involving every 2011-2016 NL pitcher who appeared during consecutive seasons in the rotational rankings (excluding “emergency starters,” who by definition only worked one start). If you’ve ever imagined that pitching performance varies a bunch on a seasonal basis…indeed it does! When faced with the criterion of working in at least two consecutive seasons from 2011-2016, 216 NL starting pitchers produced 724 pitching seasons, and their performances varied wildly on an annual basis. On a yearly basis, each pitcher might be expected to add or subtract 57 innings and add or subtract 12 runs prevented. To put this in perspective, given that 10 runs is typically understood to be worth “One Win” to an MLB club, each of these pitchers might be expected to either add or substract at least one win on average when they worked in consecutive years. 57 innings is a season’s work by a replacement starter, further demonstrating the importance of understanding variance inherent in starting pitching.

One might expect some outliers to exist, but once again, searching for “consistent” pitchers (pitchers who varied less than the average starter during consecutive seasons) piles doubt on a clear definition of “acehood.” Searching for pitchers with variance reasonably close to the +/- 12 Runs Prevented and +/- 57.0 IP marks reveals fourteen pitchers that started during consecutive years from 2011-2016 while doing so with consistent performance:

[Really, it’s even worth arguing whether Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, Mike Leake, or even Tom Koehler and Jon Niese should appear on this list, because 14-to-16 runs prevented is notably higher than 12 runs prevented.]

Once again, the usual suspects are near some quite unusual arms in terms of “ace” discussions. Few would classify Jon Niese or Tom Koehler an ace; when Marco Estrada was traded to the Blue Jays, Brewers fans did not readily call him an ace when they waved goodbye (would one be happy if Burnes or Woodruff or Hader produced Estrada’s career?). However, this list should show the value of the “middle rotation” or #4/#5 scouting designation, as certainly there is room in MLB for arms like Niese, Koehler, and Estrada. Perhaps this list even casts some light on the Arizona Diamondbacks trade for Shelby Miller; maybe a pitching strapped club was not entirely shortsighted when they traded for a 15 runs prevented starter with extremely low variance between seasons (alternately, perhaps they should have looked into the other shoe dropping). Each of these points demonstrates why one should not be concerned with the ranking of the Brewers’ young prospect pitchers, and instead simply await the variance they will produce and hope for the best convergence of variance-cycles during contending seasons.

Aces do not exist. Aces do not exist in terms of scouting, where pitchers can receive ace designation as prospect and “back up” in terms of stuff, face injuries, or even hit banal developmental hurdles. Aces do not exist in terms of runs prevented, where very few arms are able to prevent runs or even work high innings pitched totals in multiple years. Finally, aces do not exist in terms of consistency, for very few National League starters demonstrated the ability to work consecutive seasons with better than average variance between 2011-2016, and many of the arms that are consistent are not “elite” performers that invoke the ideal ace. None of this should be surprising, for pitching is truly difficult, perhaps the most difficult mechanical exercise in all professional sports. This is the logical and empirical conclusion, which should drive a moral conclusion opposed to hanging “ace” tags on pitchers like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, or Josh Hader. Each of these arms might meet one of the markers used in this article to draw ace-like comparisons at the MLB level, but the overwhelming odds are they don’t; but that alone should not be construed as a bad outcome, for there are bountiful career options without the designation of “ace.”

Data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FeW8mCqDqzf6e6OGlq4SwP0tmIYlT2cpcG288mLQCDw/edit?usp=sharing

Photo Credit: Caylor Arnold, USAToday Sports Images

2016: Grading the System

Second, the organization maintained a strange stance at the deadline: the club certainly showed a willingness to deal prospects, with GM David Stearns allegedly offering a package involving Corey Ray and Luis Ortiz for White Sox ace Jose Quintana (a fantastically priced maximal offer), and only failing to trade Lewis Brinson for Oakland hurler Sonny Gray (probably a good decision). Make no mistake about it, the Brewers were ready to execute huge MLB deadline deals for controllable assets at their price, which is the first step to testing the contending waters. Regular BPMilwaukee readers know that the rebuild is and has been over for quite some time, and now the contending window is open.

Third, the organization is experiencing setbacks across the farm system. Dominican teenage signing splash Gilbert Lara has struggled mightily through Class-A Wisconsin, a demotion to Class-R Helena, and an undisclosed disabled list stint; 2016 First Rounder Corey Ray has raised some questions about his ability to handle velocity, and 2015 First Rounder Trent Clark is also exhibiting some traits that test a hit tool that needed to have a lot of carrying power. These center field ceiling / ‘tweener (or left field) floor profiles are leaning more toward the latter at this point, taking some serious shine away from the top of the system. It goes on and on; some have stated that Cody Ponce’s stuff is backing up, others have noted that Lucas Erceg is having trouble wielding his long swing, and now there are some more questions about the seemingly-can’t-miss Isan Diaz’s hit profile. This is life on the farm, where development cycles are much longer than prospect list cycles and fan hype attention spans.

None of these guys are doomed, and indeed they could continue to develop in the advanced minors, or at repeated Class-Advanced A stints, or even after they reach the MLB as bench or bullpen depth (in some cases). With a draft that leaned heavily on the boom and bust, and graduations of Lewis Brinson, Josh Hader, and perhaps even Brandon Woodruff, there is a real chance that Milwaukee closes 2017 without winning the NL Central and with a farm system that falls in the rankings. All in a rebuild’s work, though: this is the development cycle, and if assembling the talent can be a quick and severe process, turning that talent into MLB ceilings is quite a different tale.

Fourth, the contending club itself is full of interesting profiles that may not necessarily be building blocks in the typical sense that fans and analysts imagine franchise cornerstones. Here the Brewers remain quite transitional, as one can question whether a competitive core in 2018 or even 2019 will be anything but a bridge to “the real thing” in 2020 or 2021, or whether this core will be something else entirely. With a “Team Depth” identity, this is perhaps Milwaukee’s greatest strength, one that makes the lack of impact trades or spending to seriously bolster the MLB roster at the deadline extremely disappointing (for the depth is already there, a couple of impact roles for the stretch run would have greatly helped this team).

This is quite a contradiction of forces, the most negative of which produces the image of a club reeling backwards in every regard: the MLB club is stalling, the prospects aren’t who we thought they were, the roster core is fleeting, and the front office is tepid. Of course, one could spin these threads into an entirely different pattern: the front office nearly acquired a controllable SP at the deadline, is acquiring vast prospect depth in order to offset slow development cycles, the organization just graduated the best prospects in the system (Brinson and Hader), and they crafted an extreme MLB club that is quite well-adjusted for this scoring environment that rewards power and speed. The optimistic take is that Stearns’s second consecutive underwhelming transaction window (after a highly questionable offseason) is gutsy this time around, as the GM is simply waiting out these contradictory forces to see which way the players pull the organization.

The traditional rebuild windows:

• 2015 (July, Offseason)
• 2016 (July, Offseason)
• 2017 (July, Offseason)
• 2018 (July, Offseason)

Anyway, with those contradictory points, the “officially christened rebuild” is already two years old (encompassing four trading and signing stints), and the windows on the early part of the process are indeed closed. The contending windows are open, and what the front office does with these contradictory forces within the organization, and these tough decisions regarding prospects and club cornerstones will obviously determine how quickly that contending window materializes a playoff run. What should be underscored is that these processes can overlap one another; the MLB club can (one might argue must) capitalize on at least $80 million of unspent revenue through 2017 and at least another $80 million free for 2018 (thanks to a $25 million guaranteed payroll entering the arbitration reserve portion of the offseason); the minor league system can s-l-o-w down development with some prospects, allowing them to receive the opportunities for mechanical repetition and adjustments necessary to improve and materialize “what could be” into “MLB ceilings;” and for both aims, Stearns can deal just about anyone he pleases in order to improve either aim.

System
Following last year’s post-trade deadline model, let’s take a look at how the system is advancing by acquisition type.

Top Ten Considerations
Top Thirty Considerations
[Just Interesting]
[MLB Graduate]

What’s stunning about the 2017 system is (a) how quickly the 2011-2013 drafts are fading, (b) how much the 2014 draft continues to morph into intriguing upside, and (c) how much the 2015-2016 drafts have largely been slow out of the gates (save for Corbin Burnes, obviously). Coupled with a 2017 draft that does not necessarily lend many clear Top 30 profiles to the system, these points produce a set of draft talent that does not appear as promising as last year’s outlook. Obviously the double-edged sword with this fact is that as much as this makes it easier to think about trading some of these prospects without hurting the system, it also makes it understandable that other MLB teams will be less willing to part with impact MLB rentals or controllable players for these prospects.

The story with trades is different, but the outcome is the same: less impressive talent, less overall sense of impact roles emerging at the MLB level. There really is not much to say about this, however, as short of flipping Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw, or perhaps Jimmy Nelson, it is highly improbable that the Brewers will be returning impact prospects via trade for a while. There’s simply no one left to trade, and the MLB team is showing enough strengths to make it less worthwhile to dismantle these parts on the trade market.

Finally, the Brewers ramped up International signing once more, landing one of the highest ranked prospects in the 2017 July 2 signing class. OF Carlos Rodriguez adds a chance at International development redemption for the Brewers, although it is unfair to suggest that the 2014 splash of Gilbert Lara is a closed book.

Reassembling this list, the MLB graduates from the Doug Melvin trades truly stand out. As I wrote last year, Melvin’s trades allowed the Brewers to withstand a rebuild by graduating advanced prospects with high floors. Now that set of prospects is being joined by David Stearns’s key addition in Lewis Brinson, further pushing the future identity of the Brewers into a Milwaukee blue uniform. As the prospect pipeline dries, these graduations become more important, as fewer impact prospects in the minors must still somehow coincide with more MLB wins. And that’s the trick for the next five years of Brewers roster building.

So where does one move from here?

Related Reading
Part 2: Familia / Feliciano / Ramirez
Part 1: Cooper / Gatewood / Hiura
Prospective 2018

Following the introductory words to the first installment of Midseason 3 Up 3 Down, one could conceive of the Brewers’ farm system as a system of tiers based on percentile and role. This is what is tough about ranking prospects: it is easy to be excited about many minor leaguers, but it is difficult to pin down specific role preferences for future value in a ranking. For example, catcher Mario Feliciano could easily take five years to reach his MLB debut, especially if he retains his defensive position behind the dish. But he could also be one of the most valuable future roles for the system, despite that length of development (potential starting catchers don’t grow on trees). Compare Feliciano to my favorite pitcher, Cody Ponce, or an intriguing utility/depth player like Ryan Cordell. Cordell has a much more certain path to the MLB (he’ll probably arrive within a year if he’s truly on the 40-man roster as an MLB asset) and a much clearer role (Cordell’s defensive flexibility and batting profile almost assure he’ll slide in to create another Hernan Perez). It’s incredibly fun to imagine a bench including Cordell, Perez, Jonathan Villar, and Mauricio Dubon, both due to positional flexibility and the ideal that each of these players could step in for an extended absence and probably hold their own. Ponce might be spinning wheels a bit in 2017, but he remains a quality pitching prospect for the Brewers with a relatively clear path to the MLB (there can never be enough quality pitching depth within a system).

While both Ponce and Cordell are closer to the MLB and have much clearer roles to boot, Feliciano is probably the better Overall Future Potential (OFP) pick for the system. This is just one such comparison, but comparisons like this could be made across the Milwaukee system.

Splitting the system into tiers, it’s crucial to note that a player without a potentially elite or better than average role is not necessarily a bad prospect, especially if they are ticketed for MLB as a depth option. The fact of the matter is, very few prospects will become 70 OFP star profiles (like Carlos Correa, for example), or 60 OFP first-division potential profiles (like Orlando Arcia). Here’s how that reality might look in the Brewers’ system:

Aside from focusing on potential MLB roles, there ought to be a set of classifications that recognizes prospects working in relatively clear organizational depth positions, and prospects that are clearly projection plays. Consider the 2017 MLB Draft, in which the Brewers made considerable gambles with their picks in order to secure long development plays. Caden Lemons is my favorite example of this, a 6’6″ pitcher with considerable room to grow into his frame and therefore become a future power pitcher projection; of course, there is a scenario in which Lemons does not make it to Advanced Affiliates, or suffers an injury through what will almost certainly be a five year development period. This adds risk to Lemons’s profile, and although his MLB ceiling is not yet known, one can recognize future potential in the projection gamble.

There are plenty of prospects excluded from this list, so it should not be taken as a ranking; Franly Mallen, Phil Bickford, Blake Lillis, Jose Sibrian, Joantgel Segovia, Quintin Torres-Costa, and Jordan Yamamoto are just some of the players I excluded from this list. By this point, we’re so far into the system that one can see how a ranking system loses it’s efficacy. Outside of front offices with proprietary modeling systems for scouting and statistical information, I’m not certain there is value in fans knowing who is the #24 prospect or who is the #38 prospect in the Brewers system.

For this installment, BPMilwaukee Editorial Staff (Nicholas Zettel and Kyle Lesniewski) were joined by Craig Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus Prospect Team).

3 UP (and one bonus!)
CF Monte Harrison, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein): Two freak injuries sidelined Monte Harrison in both 2015 and 2016, dampening the 60 OFP first division center fielder tag in the 2015 Baseball Prospectus Top Ten. Although the 2016 Baseball Prospectus list dropped Harrison to an excellent defensive right fielder role, the prospect’s injury issues have not kept the Brewers from giving him development time in center field. As Harrison advances through the system in center field, a more realistic potential MLB ceiling at that position should materialize. Now that Harrison is healthy, his transition from elite athlete to elite athlete as ballplayer is translating into highly regarded bat speed, leading to a hit tool that solves some of the puzzles that materialized even in his first Top Ten Brewers list. Perhaps the best part is (besides Harrison remaining healthy thus far and having a chance to truly form his ballgame) that even though it feels like Harrison has been around forever, he’s still only in his age-21 season and is younger than 80 percent of the 2017 Carolina League.

Goldstein on Harrison: Long on tools and short on [development] time, Harrison’s mostly healthy season has finally yielded bountiful results.

RHP Corbin Burnes, AA Biloxi (picked by Craig Goldstein): Corbin Burnes exemplifies the split between how fans follow the minor leagues and how scouts follow the minor leagues. The righty has posted phenomenal statistics since the Brewers selected him in the 4th round of the 2016 draft. Reports throughout the breakout 2017 campaign for Burnes have underscored the fastball and slider combination for the 6’3″ righty, while also raising questions about additional off-speed offerings (which would round out a starter’s profile) and delivery (which some suggest may be too high effort to repeat as a starter). Yet, here we are, with Burnes giving Brewers box score hawks fireworks every fifth day, which is unfortunately turning the righty into perhaps the system’s biggest hype case. I say unfortunately because it is clear that Burnes has an MLB ceiling, and it is clear that he needs work to get there (for example, Burnes might reach 150 innings in 2017, which means that the righty may need another year of seasoning in order to build up that true mid rotation workload). Burnes may be one of the best arguments in favor of turning prospect coverage fully away from statistics and toward scouting grades and reports, as there is a good chance those Brewers box score hawks hyping up “could Burnes be the next ace?” will be the first to turn on him should he reach the MLB at his realistic ceiling. None of this should take away from the righty, and obviously actual MLB runs prevention performances from year to year feature strong performances from non-aces (see Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson in 2017, and Zach Davies and Junior Guerra in 2016, as just two sets of examples). In this sense, even scouting roles and actual MLB performances diverge. A better line would be that “aces don’t exist,” and allow Burnes the developmental space necessary to turn him into the valuable MLB pitcher that he can be for the Brewers.

Goldstein on Burnes: I’m not convinced he’s not a reliever in the end, but the fastball/slider combo is legit. Waiting on that third pitch.

C Jacob Nottingham, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Nottingham, the centerpiece of the trade that sent Khrush Davis to the Athletics, was one of the more disappointing prospects in the system last season, and an ice cold start to 2017 only further dampened his stock. But the 22 year old appears to have finally started to put things together over the last several weeks. He’s hitting .352/.426/.593 over his last four week’s worth of games, bringing his season-long slash line to .253/.349/.407 with three home runs, which translates to a nifty .279 TAv in the pitcher-friendly Southern League. Nottingham’s bat was supposed to be what carried him to the big leagues, but his defense has been much improved since joining the org as well. A 43 percent caught stealing rate, +3.3 framing runs, and decent blocking numbers (along with a huge reduction in passed balls) should help quell some of the “can he stick at catcher?” concerns.

RHP Carlos Herrera, Rookie Helena (picked by Nicholas Zettel): When the Brewers traded Adam Lind to the Mariners, David Stearns orchestrated a nifty return that amounted to a complete gamble in his new front office’s abilities to develop low minors arms into players that could reach their MLB ceilings (or simply reach the MLB for that matter) and a tiered acquisition approach that ensured each level of the minors would be populated with projection arms. Now, the fruits of that trade suggest Freddy Peralta is the best asset, having recently been promoted to Class-AA Biloxi in his age-21 season. But, Carlos Herrera was perhaps the most projection-worthy starter on the day of that Lind deal, and it is arguable that that fact has not changed even as Peralta climbs through the minors. Herrera is notably taller than Peralta, which adds intrigue to early reports of velocity and ability to spin breaking pitches. One would almost expect that should the righty continue to ascend into a true starting rotation ceiling, he will not resemble the 6’2″, 150 lb., low-90s arm that made it over to Milwaukee on trade day. Of course it’s a long way from “6’2″ with low-90s fastball and spin” to “filled out starter’s frame with a fastball that reaches or sits in the mid-90s and an average or better off-speed offering,” but there are little checkpoints along the way (like a commanding 20 K / 3 BB / 3 HR in his first 16 innings in Helena).

3 DOWN
LHP Nathan Kirby, Injury Rehabilitation (picked by Nicholas Zettel): This should not be viewed as piling on to the lefty, who has experienced tough luck since Milwaukee selected him as a supplemental first round pick in 2015. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Kirby had an additional elbow procedure completed in 2017, which shortens his potential workload to the end of August (maybe) and developmental ball (also maybe). When drafted, Kirby was viewed as a two-headed beast, one that could potentially flash three above average pitches or serve as a polished, high floor rotational depth guy, or one that could have his ceiling derailed by command and delivery issues. Now, neither of those aspects of the gamble seem pertinent as the Brewers face another long injury rehabilitation in their pitching ranks (see most notably, Taylor Williams, Devin Williams, Daniel Missaki, and Adrian Houser). This was a system where, after 2016, one might have said with confidence that the lower tier pitching ceilings and projection plays were more impactful than the batting profiles, but it’s tough to double down on that statement given the injured impact profiles. If Kirby must wait until 2018 to gain innings once again, the southpaw will be in his age-24 season with 12.7 professional innings under his belt. It is difficult to see a starting profile emerging from this developmental pattern, but injured southpaws have proven to be ageless in the past, meaning it’s time to brush up on bios and profiles like Al Leiter (who like Kirby was listed as a 6’2″, 200 lb. lefty).

OF Trent Clark, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein): In this iteration of the development cycle, the good becomes the problematic: that strong hit tool that earned rave reviews for Ray Montgomery’s first draft, clearly signalling a shift away from the gambles of the 2014 draft, that strong hit tool that was profiled as leading the way for a center field prospect, is now facing more scouting scrutiny in the prospect’s second  year in full-season ball. It is worth noting that behind Gilbert Lara, Clark is facing the harshest aging curve among regular minor league players in Milwaukee’s system. In the worst case scenario, perhaps Clark repeats at Advanced A Carolina to begin 2018, which could have the benefit of smoothing that curve, giving Clark more chances to sharpen that hit tool, and find separation with the system’s other highly regarded outfielders (which could have the benefit of allowing Clark to solidify that center field role rather than that ‘tweener OFP). Establishing something of a Brinson / Keon Broxton (MLB) | Phillips / Reed (AAA) | Harrison / Ray (AA) | Clark (A+) center field pipeline would provide quite an organizational structure in the middle of the diamond.

Goldstein on Clark: He looked lost at the plate in my viewing, and has been playing LF when Ray is healthy and playing, which puts even more pressure on a bat that was going to be average-dependent in the first place.

RHP Jorge Lopez, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): It wasn’t too long ago that Lopez was considered to be the top pitching prospect that Milwaukee had, winning the org’s minor league pitcher of the year after posting a 2.26 ERA in the Southern League in 2015. Last year in Colorado Springs was a disaster, though, and Lopez was returned to AA to begin the 2017 season. His 5.04 ERA in 69.2 innings appears rather underwhelming, though both FIP (3.41) and DRA (4.29) were a bit more bullish on Lopez’s work with the Shuckers this year. An improved K/BB rate after lowering his arm slot apparently wasn’t enough to convince Brewers’ brass he could stick in the rotation. From farm director Tom Flanagan on Jorge’s recent role change, via Adam McCalvy’s most recent mailbag.”The starting rotation at Biloxi is filled with some pitchers that have really thrown well, and Jorge hasn’t been able to show the consistency that we wanted to see in that role….Jorge has all the weapons to become a successful Major League starting pitcher, and we are not closing any doors on that. But by moving Jorge to the ‘pen, and getting him on the mound more often, we feel it will be helpful step in his development.” Lopez was just recently recalled to and demoted from the big leagues, and his profile suggests that he should have the chance to become an impact reliever. Still, that result would be a far cry from the “future #2 or #3 starter” labels that were being slapped on Lopez after his outstanding season two years ago.

With that in mind, it’s fair to say that what was supposed to be a vaunted lineup for Milwaukee’s high-A affiliate has underwhelmed thus far in 2017. Only three regular players have provided above-average offense this year by wRC+, with guys like Isan Diaz (.255 TAv, 98 wRC+), Trent Clark (.254 TAv, 97 wRC+), and Lucas Erceg (.216 TAv, 71 wRC+) all dealing with their share of struggles in 2017.

One player who was a bit under-the-radar coming into the year on this team full of top prospects is outfielder Troy Stokes, a 4th round draft pick by the Crew back in 2014. The right-handed hitter received a $400,000 bonus to lure him away from his college commitment and put together some sound hitting performances in his first three minor league seasons, batting .267/.368/.383 with 9 home runs and 65 steals across 195 games combined between Maryvale, Helena, and Wisconsin from 2014-16. The book on Stokes coming out of the draft was that he’d likely never offer much power, but he has solid bat-to-ball skills (he authored a manageable 18.8 percent K rate through his first three MiLB seasons) and his above-average to plus speed should play well in the outfield and on the bases. Former BP scout James Fisher, now a scout with the Milwaukee Brewers, offered this take last summer:

“Stokes is a small framed athletic outfielder with strength throughout. Physically maxed out…Stokes has average bat speed but struggles with pitch recognition. Isn’t a burner with 55 run times. Interesting routes in LF at times but is solid. Tweener 4th outfielder type when all is said and done.”

This year, the short (5’8″) but strong (182 lbs) 21 year old is still making a good amount of contact (17.2 percent K rate) as well as drawing walks at a high clip (11.5 percent) and stealing bags (13 / 17), but has surprisingly added a new tool to his arsenal: over-the-fence power. In just 63 games and 261 plate appearances, Stokes already has more home runs, 10, than he did during his first three seasons in Milwaukee’s system. He leads the Mudcats in long balls and his current Isolated Power mark of .200 is good for 2nd on the team behind Jake Gatewood and is 83 points better than Stokes’ career average coming into the season.

A change is his approach at the plate may be what is driving his newfound power this season. Here is video of Stokes hitting last season with the Timber Rattlers. You’ll notice that he stands pretty upright, with a slight flex in the knees and waist and a slightly open stance. His hands are at about the level of his ears when the pitch is delivered, and his timing mechanism is a small step forward with his front foot:

Now, here is video from the other day of Stokes launching a grand slam against the Salem Red Sox. Stokes has a touch more bend in his waist, but more noticeable is a rather significant dropping of the hands from last year’s batting stance. Troy’s hands are now closer to chest level at pitch delivery rather than up by his ears like last season, similar to the mechanical changes that have been instituted in the past year or so by Keon Broxton, Brett Phillips, and Carolina teammate Jake Gatewood. Stokes’ timing step has now also evolved into more of a leg kick, although not a huge one:

For Stokes, the results of the changes have been a sizable increase in power without having to sacrifice the contact ability he had displayed during his first few seasons as a professional. Though his current line sits at just .227/.329/.427 (.276 TAv; still a 103 wRC+), the poor batting average can be mostly attributed to a paltry .238 batting average on balls in play this season. Stokes is pulling the ball more this year as well as hitting a few more fly balls, but given his good speed and career .308 BABIP, one can expect that number to regress in a positive direction as the season wears on.

Stokes was drafted as a center fielder, though sharing an outfield with the likes of Corey Ray and Trent Clark means he’s made most of his appearances in left as a professional. Still, he’s capable of playing all three positions (though his arm does profile best in center or left). With his defensive versatility and good speed, Stokes has always looked like a player with a chance to be a solid reserve outfielder at the big league level someday. If he can sustain the power that he’s added to his toolshed this season, however, Troy Stokes may be in the process of elevating that “fourth outfielder” ceiling and adding yet another intriguing name to Milwaukee’s crowded organizational outfield picture.

The 2017 Carolina Mudcats roster is loaded with talent and potential. And despite his self-confessed ambivalence to results, starting pitcher Corbin Burnes has been one of the most impressive producers of the first two months for the Mudcats. Burnes, as you might expect from a prospect still at the High-A level, still has a ways to go until he’s a Major League caliber player. But Burnes’ dominance over the Midwest League through May makes him one of the most exciting names in an exciting farm system. The Brewers just promoted this exciting righty to Class-AA Biloxi.

Coming into this season, there were concerns about Burnes’s future role. He appeared in twelve games across two levels in 2016, starting six of them, and posted significantly better splits as a relief pitcher. Back in February, he attributed that discrepancy to pure luck. Burnes was, and still is, confident in his future as a starting pitcher. Nine starts into the 2017 campaign, the numbers back this self-confidence up.

Burnes did not come out of the Carolina bullpen, but he will tandem with Tayler Williams in Biloxi. All nine of his Carolina appearances were starts. In those nine starts he’s 5-0, and he’s put up an ERA of 1.00 and a WHIP of 0.93. After struggling with wildness for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers last season, Burnes is striking out 3.33 hitters for every walk this time around. DRA of 1.82 suggests that, while he’s gotten a little lucky, he’s still pitching at an ace level.

As Jack Conness noted at BP Milwaukee in February, Burnes has an intense nature and a work ethic to match. He’s also got a four-pitch arsenal, and some scouts feel that all four pitches could develop into Major League caliber offerings. There are concerns yet about his consistency and mechanics, but it’s not hard to see him developing into a valuable piece of a playoff pitching staff.

During the month of May, Burnes has turned on the afterburners. (You’re welcome, future Brewers play-by-play guys.) He’s picked up four of his five wins, posted an ERA of 0.55 for the month, and catapulted his name into any and all discussions of the Brewers’ future plans.

Burnes started off his month on the 4th against the Frederick Keys, affiliate of the Baltimore Orioles. In his final start of April the Keys had touched him up for three earned runs in 5.3 innings, easily his worst start of the year. But this time around, Burnes shut Frederick out over 6 2/3, surrendering just one hit and striking out five. That was Burnes’ wildest start of the month: he walked three, but the only time Frederick even threatened was the top of the second. A leadoff single and one-out walk, plus a ground ball, left two runners in scoring position. But Burnes got Josh Hart swinging to end the threat, and Frederick wouldn’t score again until the ninth when Carolina already had a seven-run lead.

Six days later, he toed the rubber in Lynchburg to take on the Hillcats, a Cleveland farm team. Burnes lasted six innings even this time around, and again held his assignment scoreless for the night. He struck out just three but only walked one, and the Mudcats won the seven-inning game, 2-0, as part of a doubleheader sweep.

On the 16th, Burnes took on the Down East Wood Ducks, part of the Texas Rangers organization, and his scoreless streak was snapped in the first inning as LeDarious Clark tripled and came in to score. But the Mudcats opened up a 9-1 lead in the bottom of the first, effectively ending the game (which finished 11-2). Staked to the comfortable lead, Burnes ate up seven innings, scattering seven hits and giving up just the one run. He walked just a single batter once again, and struck out five. It wasn’t his most dominant start, but it further established something we already know about Burnes: he’s capable of digging deep and working out of jams on the nights he doesn’t have his best stuff.

And speaking of Corbin Burnes’s best stuff, the Chicago White Sox-affiliated Winston-Salem Dash ran into a buzz saw on May 21st. Burnes once again tossed seven innings, and this time he was masterful: three hits, one walk, and ten punchouts. Unfortunately, his counterpart Tanner Banks was just as good, going for eight innings, four hits, no walks, five strikeouts. The game went to extra innings, denying Burnes a five-start, five-win mark for the month. Fortunately, however, the Mudcats broke the scoreless drought in the top of the tenth with a three-spot to win.

Last Friday, Burnes improved to 5-0 on the season at home against the Myrtle Beach Pelicans. This was possibly the biggest game of Burnes’s May, as the Pelicans are the High-A affiliate of the Cubs. Burnes went six strong innings, making it the fifth time in May he lasted at least that long. After giving up two hits to start the game (and lead to a first-inning run), he settled down, keeping Myrtle Beach hitless the rest of his watch by walking just one and striking out six.

Burnes has drawn plenty of attention from industry scouts in the early going of the season. He missed BP’s Top 10 list for the Brewers but over at Fangraphs, where the list went up to 25, Burnes slid in as number 18. They commend his competitive attitude and athleticism, making note of his plus fielding on the mound. But his calling card is “a four-pitch mix led by a mid-80s changeup and slider, both of which have above-average potential.” Burnes’s curveball is clearly the fourth offering of the bunch, and will either need to be smoothed out mechanically (he has a tendency to change his arm angle, tipping the pitch) or retired entirely. Due to his high-effort delivery and inconsistent control, they noted the possibility that he ends up in the bullpen, but ultimately saw him coming through as a back-end starter.

BP’s Craig Goldstein wrote about Burnes in the May 9 edition of Notes from the Field and, as this was early on into Burnes’ burning May, he was probably the most critical evaluator of the bunch. He praised Burnes’s “lanky frame,” noting that he appears “capable of adding good weight,” but was unimpressed with his “inconsistent mechanics,” noting that he “flew open frequently” and “located well when he wasn’t flying open.” In Goldstein’s evaluation, Burnes’s fastball and slider are unmistakably his two best pitches, with the curveball as a “tertiary offering; show-me pitch.” His changeup either never made it out of the bag, or was used so infrequently that Goldstein didn’t see it as being worth noting. Ultimately, Goldstein “could easily envision [Burnes] as a reliever with a FB/SL repertoire.”

Last week, in the big weekend Minor League Update, BP’s Mark Anderson gave Burnes a write-up as well. He agreed that Burnes’s fastball is the carrying tool in the repertoire, but also noted that he has “three secondary pitches that are all slowly improving.” Like the other scouts, Anderson agreed that Burnes “needs work and may need extended time at each of the upper-level minor league stops before he’s ready,” and agreed with Fangraphs in that “there’s a chance the Brewers have a number four starter in the making.”

On the same day, Eric Longerhagen of FanGraphs included a quick blurb on Burnes in his Daily Prospect Notes: “The fiery Burnes is starting to look like a bit of a steal in last year’s fourth round and has a 1.00 ERA over nine starts at High-A. His frame is filling out and he’s sitting 92-94 with a chance for three average secondaries (maybe a 55 curveball) and average command. He’s athletic, fields his position well, and profiles toward the back of a rotation.”

Longerhagen also provided video of Burnes, which is incredibly helpful for our purposes. He’s certainly commanding the strike zone better than he did in his pro debut last season. This could be a sign that his mechanics are starting to come together, or it could be a sign that he’s on a hot streak. Let’s investigate:

We can clearly see where Burnes’s inconsistency roots from. His pitching motion has a dual trigger. His hands move down from his chest to his waist, and he rocks his weight onto his front foot off to the side of the mound. The inconsistency starts here. Sometimes, these two motions happen simultaneously. Sometimes, Burnes drops his hands up to a half second before his lower body kicks into gear. These two moving parts need to me working synchronously, ideally with no variance whatsoever. That is not the case, which means that sometimes Burnes’s lower body needs to play catch-up to the top part of his delivery. This leads to the “flying open” that Craig Goldstein took note of.

The good news is that, with proper coaching and tireless repetition, Burnes’s timing issues should become a thing of the past. This should lead directly to more consistent command of all of his pitches. As the month of May proves, when Burnes can keep from allowing free passes he can dominate the game and keep opposing offenses at bay.

The Conness profile of Burnes this February provided that opening quote to explain that Burnes tries to mentally focus on process and preparation, since those will lead to consistently positive results, rather than focusing on positive results, which can sometimes just be a lucky hot streak. With any other 22-year-old pitcher, it would be easy to look at the gaudy numbers, and the still-flawed mechanics, and worry that this run of success is the worst thing that could happen to his long-term prospects. But in this case, the magical May just means that more eyes are paying attention as Burnes grinds out the incremental improvements that transform a High-A arm into a big league starter.