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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Daniel Missaki</title>
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		<title>The Call Up: Freddy Peralta</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/13/the-call-up-freddy-peralta/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/13/the-call-up-freddy-peralta/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 May 2018 17:22:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nicholas Zettel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers prospect analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Missaki]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Stearns trade analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddy Peralta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddy Peralta MLB debut]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11662</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When Brewers GM David Stearns took over the reins of the club, his first move established a particular type of rebuilding approach: he traded reliever Francisco Rodriguez to Detroit for infield prospect Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). This was a relatively solid trade for an established-but-not-necessarily-impact veteran reliever, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When Brewers GM David Stearns took over the reins of the club, his first move established a particular type of rebuilding approach: he traded reliever Francisco Rodriguez to Detroit for infield prospect Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). This was a relatively solid trade for an established-but-not-necessarily-impact veteran reliever, where Stearns sought a potential high-floor defensive infielder and a catcher who had yet to receive an extended shot playing behind the dish. This type of value-based approach was echoed in his next big trade, which involved another established veteran in first baseman Adam Lind. Here, Stearns accomplished a brand of trade that many analysts have called for since: he flipped a serviceable contract for a trio of extremely low minors pitching prospects. When the Lind trade occurred, Carlos Herrera (age-19 for 2016), Freddy Peralta (age-20), and Daniel Missaki (age-20) were ready to exit their teenage years after early career development in the Seattle system. Each of these arms hardly had minor league track records established, let alone potential MLB ceilings or risk profiles; the risk was extreme in that each player was (at the time) expected to be years and years away from the MLB.</p>
<p>That ends today, when righty Freddy Peralta takes the mound in a spot start for the Brewers. Peralta is listed at 5&#8217;11&#8221;, 175 pounds, and quickly gained a reputation among the trio of Lind starters for a potential MLB role. In 2016, Peralta surged through Class-A Wisconsin, striking out 77 batters in 60 innings, while maintaining a relatively solid command profile. What is particularly interesting about Peralta is that the prospect allowed 35 percent ground ball rate in 2016, which ticked up to 51 percent when he was promoted to Advanced-A Brevard County before falling again in 2017. Thus far in 2018, Peralta made a strong transition to the difficult pitching confines of Triple-A Colorado Springs, bumping his ground ball rate up to 54 percent to go along with that big strike out rate (this time it&#8217;s 46 strike outs in 34.7 IP thus far). But now prospect analysts and fans can surmise Peralta&#8217;s groundball approach from his scouting profile: the righty is a moving fastball specialist, and one wonders if his repeated mechanical development and arsenal adjustments is allowing him to keep the ball on the ground at a more steady rate.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZK4sPvyZShU" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Freddy Peralta is a potential back-end rotation starter, but in Milwaukee that does not necessarily mean what it says, for two reasons. In the first case, one must emphasize that potential scouting roles, even those scouted in the advance minors, are not the be-all, end-all of player development; in fact, the David Stearns Brewers should demonstrate specifically how player development windows are much longer than the A-to-A+-to-AA-and-AAA progression. Zach Davies is a fantastic comparison for Peralta here, both in terms of advanced minors role (Davies was scouted as a high-floor back-end rotation arm prior to his debut), and diminutive arsenal development at the MLB level. Davies, the back-end sinker/change up pitcher, entered 2018 having prevented approximately 15 runs through 388.7 innings, which is quite strong at the back end. This does not necessarily mean that Peralta is a guaranteed rotational success (in fact, his scouting floor might ultimately place him in the bullpen, which is not necessarily a bad thing), but it is at the very least a hint that Milwaukee is a place where player development can extend to the MLB in an extremely positive manner. </p>
<p>Second, Freddy Peralta, along with Davies, Brent Suter, Junior Guerra, Jacob Barnes, Jeremy Jeffress, Oliver Drake, and even Chase Anderson, is one of the faces of the Brewers current pitching-first, depth-based strategy. The organization has been built around acquiring pitchers with very specific, and quite intriguing, profiles in the age of fireballing velocity around the MLB: the Brewers are a generally a slow-throwing bunch, and when they&#8217;re not a slow-throwing bunch, they are typically focused on change-up / curveball / cutter / splitter arsenals. Perhaps this is a feature that will become clearer over time with more player acquisitions, but thus far it seems unmistakable that Stearns and pitching coach Derek Johnson prefer a very particular type of profile to feed ground balls to the extremely efficient groundball defense. </p>
<p>This offseason, <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/34948/2018-prospects-milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects-lewis-brinson-monte-harrison-keston-hiura-rankings/">Freddy Peralta was featured as one of the Top 20 prospects in the system</a> by Baseball Prospectus. Scott Delp wrote: </p>
<p><em>&#8220;One reason for the lack of hype is that Peralta has no show-stopping pitches. The fastball tops out at just 92, but he cuts it, runs it, sinks it, and can move it all around the zone. The changes in speed and movement allow him to keep hitters off balance. He is especially good at locating up in the zone to put hitters away. He also has a potentially plus slider with good late bite that he throws 84-86. He is looking for a reliable third pitch and can flash average with both a curve and change, but neither pitch has any consistency right now.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Delp also added an essay to the end of the list, arguing that Peralta should be in the Top Ten, writing &#8220;Then there is profile bias. Certain players can get less notice because they are lacking the profile that we feel is necessary for true success.&#8221; Peralta fits this mold, as Delp noted:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;The conventional wisdom says that guys without a big fastball and without the classic pitcher’s body can only have success by either having a lot of deception in their deliveries or by having elite command. Peralta’s command is just a bit above average and, while he throws slightly across his body which gives him some deception, his results mostly come from his ability to change speeds and looks with his fastball and to mix his other pitches to keep hitters off balance.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Peralta&#8217;s size and profile, in this sense, scream relief risk, and maybe a potential impact relief role or impact swingman role (like a righty Suter), for the future. But there&#8217;s a glimpse in a moving fastball arsenal that perhaps Peralta could stick in a back-end rotational role should his command continue to develop at the MLB (and, I&#8217;d add, that he continues his positive ground ball rate progression). Suddenly, though, Milwaukee is also becoming such a good pitching environment that one can squint at guys like Peralta and sense that maybe this is the best system in which for Peralta to work. </p>
<p>For Brewers fans wondering why the club did not acquire a pitcher such as Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, or Jake Arrieta during the offseason, and instead opted to work with Wade Miley and Jhoulys Chacin as the major rotational acquisitions, the Freddy Peralta promotion should serve as one particular answer. The Brewers are already exercising their depth, with Wade Miley injured, Brent Suter and Brandon Woodruff as swingmen, and Junior Guerra excelling. Moreover, though, the Brewers have correctly assessed a league filled with pitching attrition, and today the club will become the <em>fourth</em> National League team to work with eight starting pitchers thus far. Through roughly a quarter of the season, only one NL team (Colorado) has used five starters, and overall teams have used 102 pitchers to fill their rotation spots. </p>
<table width="" border="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Team</th>
<th align="center">Starting Pitchers</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Arizona</td>
<td align="center">8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Miami</td>
<td align="center">8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">San Diego</td>
<td align="center">8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Atlanta</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Cincinnati</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Dodgers</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Milwaukee</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Mets</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">San Francisco</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">St. Louis</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Cubs</td>
<td align="center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Philadelphia</td>
<td align="center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Pittsburgh</td>
<td align="center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Washington</td>
<td align="center">6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Colorado</td>
<td align="center">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Team</td>
<td align="center">102</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>Milwaukee has designed their rotation to work with their advanced minors depth, and if fans are exciting about Freddy Peralta working, they should think about Corbin Burnes potentially taking the next rotational availability when needed. But that&#8217;s just one of many possibilities, as even newly-recalled Alec Asher fits the Stearns-Johnson Pitcher Factory profile as a relatively low velocity, sinker / cutter / change / curve hurler. Before too long, Milwaukee will probably have ten starting pitchers in the mix at the MLB level in 2018, and that&#8217;s before one even considers Jimmy Nelson&#8217;s position with the club. The rotation is quite serviceable with this approach (approximately -6 runs prevented thus far), and the mix-and-match rotational profile is basically serving as early innings damage mitigation prior to handing the ball off to an elite bullpen (24 runs prevented!). So, Peralta enters a successful pitching staff and an organization that seems perfectly suited for his continued development: here the hope is that the righty gets to showcase his best stuff today, and make the next decision regarding a spot start or an extended call-up a little tougher amidst all the future competition from Miley, Guerra, Nelson, and Burnes. </p>
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		<title>Recovering Arms</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/23/recovering-arms/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/23/recovering-arms/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Feb 2018 13:54:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Lesniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospect analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Missaki]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devin Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nathan Kirby]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11187</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Milwaukee Brewers loudly announced a change in organizational intent from &#8216;rebuilding&#8217; to &#8216;competing&#8217; this past offseason, and their once vaunted farm system understandably took a hit in the process. On the evening of January 25th, David Stearns and company sent three of their top six prospects from Baseball Prospectus&#8217; top-10 list &#8211; #1 Lewis [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Milwaukee Brewers loudly announced a change in organizational intent from &#8216;rebuilding&#8217; to &#8216;competing&#8217; this past offseason, and their once vaunted farm system understandably took a hit in the process. On the evening of January 25th, David Stearns and company sent three of their top six prospects from <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/34948/2018-prospects-milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects-lewis-brinson-monte-harrison-keston-hiura-rankings/" target="_blank">Baseball Prospectus&#8217; top-10 list</a> &#8211; #1 Lewis Brinson, #3 Monte Harrison, and #6 Isan Diaz, along with a fourth piece in young righty Jordan Yamamoto &#8211; to the Marlins in exchange for Christian Yelich. With that much potential impact talent getting shipped out in one fell swoop, it&#8217;s not surprising that Milwaukee&#8217;s minor league system has fallen out of the top-10 in organizational rankings in the eyes of outlets from Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America to MLB Pipeline.</p>
<p>At this point it doesn&#8217;t seem likely that Slingin&#8217; Stearns will be doing any deals this summer that involve shipping out an MLB player for prospects, so he won&#8217;t be able to replenish his talent pipeline that way anytime soon. The amateur draft is held annually every June and the Brewers figure to be able to pick up some promising talent through that avenue. However, what would go the furthest to re-establishing a healthy farm system in the eyes of scouts would be the improvement of some of the prospects that are already in the system.</p>
<p>With that in mind, there is a trio of largely forgotten minor league hurlers that fans ought to consider keeping an eye on in 2018. According to Todd Rosiak of the Journal Sentinel, three formerly well-regarded pitching prospects should be ready to return to action for the upcoming season: Nathan Kirby, Daniel Missaki, and Devin Williams. Each individual is attempting to get back to full strength after undergoing Tommy John surgery.</p>
<p>Kirby is probably the most recognizable name of the bunch, as it was just two drafts ago that the now-24 year old southpaw was Milwaukee&#8217;s selection as a supplemental first-rounder (#40 overall). After leading Virginia to a College World Series title, a post-draft physical revealed some elbow issues and caused Milwaukee to re-negotiate Kirby&#8217;s bonus, slashing some $300,000 off of their originally agreed upon total. Kirby would make just five appearances and toss 12.7 innings in Class A before being diagnosed with a damaged UCL that required him to go under the knife. That cost him all of the 2016 season. Just when it looked like he was nearing a return to the mound last year, Kirby was dealt another blow with a <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/5/9/15502820/milwaukee-brewers-prospect-nathan-kirby-undergoes-another-elbow-surgery" target="_blank">diagnosis of ulnar neuritits</a>, an inflammation of the ulnar nerve that causes numbness or weakness in the hand. Because of the second procedure, Kirby was unable to throw a competitive pitch in 2017.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s been two years since Kirby has seen game action, but when he was last healthy Baseball America described his repetoire as &#8220;a fastball that sits in the low 90s with good life, an above-average changeup and the late-breaking slider in the mid-80s he used to put away Vandy. &#8230;His combination of athleticism and stuff should allow him to move quickly once healthy and make it to the majors as a mid-rotation starter.&#8221; Baseball Prospectus echoed this sentiment while listing the lefty as a &#8220;just interesting&#8221; prospect entering 2016, noting, &#8220;When he is healthy he’ll show two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and there’s the makings of a solid-average change to boot. Add in feel for pitching and you get a solid mid-rotation starter, but we’ll have to see how he responds to the surgery before you can start placing him in the Brewers rotation.&#8221; Kirby is under no restrictions this spring as he tries to get his professional career going in earnest in 2018.</p>
<p>Like Kirby, Daniel Missaki has also not thrown a competitive pitch in more than two seasons. Missaki was one of the three teenage arms that Seattle parted with during the 2015-16 offseason in order to acquire Adam Lind, and at the time of the deal he was probably the most well-known of that group. The right-hander was the youngest player to appear in the 2013 World Baseball Classic, pitching for Brazil as a 17 year old. He posted a 2.76 ERA and 88 DRA- in 11 starts in the Appalachian League in 2014 and was in the process of an excellent full-season debut in 2015 before a UCL injury and subsequent Tommy John stopped him in his tracks. Missaki was still recovering from the procedure when the Brewers picked him up, but he had a setback during the rehab process that required him to undergo a second ligament replacement procedure.</p>
<p>Missaki missed all of 2016 and 2017, but this spring is nearing a return to throwing. When last healthy as a 19-year old, Missaki didn&#8217;t feature any plus offerings according to BA, but his repetoire played up due to his ability to command the baseball and pound the zone with strikes. The upcoming season will be only Missaki&#8217;s age-22 campaign, giving him plenty of time to get his development back on track once fully healthy.</p>
<p>Finally, Devin Williams was considered one of the org&#8217;s top pitching prospects during the pre-rebuild days back when the farm system was viewed as one of the weakest in the league. That shouldn&#8217;t be much of a knock against Williams, though, who actually posted some pretty promising results after getting selected in the 2nd round of the 2013 MLB Draft. Williams owns a career 3.79 ERA in 287.1 minor league innings, and had just made it to Class-A Advanced for the first time in his age-21 season in 2016 before going down with an elbow injury in Spring Training last season. He missed all of the 2017 campaign but his rehab process has progressed to the point where he is currently throwing off a flat mound.</p>
<p>Former BP scout James Fisher <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=453" target="_blank">caught a glimpse of Williams</a> during the final weeks of the 2016 season and came away with a positive impression. He gave the righty a 55 OFP and likely grade of 50, saying he could be a #4 starter or high-impact reliever at the game&#8217;s highest level. When last healthy, Williams was throwing a plus fastball in the 91-94 MPH range along with a plus changeup and a slider that projected as average. Williams has been praised for repeating his delivery well and generating velocity without much effort, but his command has been an issue as he&#8217;s struggled to maintain a consistent release point. Still only 23, Williams should have plenty of opportunity to reclaim his spot on the top prospects lists.</p>
<p>Returning from Tommy John surgery is no sure thing, but it&#8217;s no longer considered to be the death knell that it was a couple of decades ago. If even one of Nathan Kirby, Daniel Missaki, or Devin Williams can find their pre-surgery form, it would go a long way towards re-establishing Milwaukee&#8217;s collection of minor league talent as one that is in the upper-tier of Major League Baseball.</p>
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		<title>Checking In on the Lind Trade</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/21/checking-in-on-the-lind-trade/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Nov 2017 14:19:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Lind]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Missaki]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddy Peralta]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10623</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On December 9, 2015, the Milwaukee Brewers traded their starting first baseman for a trio of teenaged pitchers. Adam Lind, the first baseman in question, had just batted .277 for the Brewers with 20 home runs, a high walk rate, and a TAv of .294. Defensive deficiencies prevented him from being more than an average [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On December 9, 2015, the Milwaukee Brewers traded their starting first baseman for a trio of teenaged pitchers. Adam Lind, the first baseman in question, had just batted .277 for the Brewers with 20 home runs, a high walk rate, and a TAv of .294. Defensive deficiencies prevented him from being more than an average player (1.9 WARP in 2015), but he was coming off his third consecutive season with a TAv north of .290, struck out at a palatable clip, and had a knack for swatting long home runs. The guy could swing it. He also wasn’t Yunieski Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez, or Mark Reynolds, bless him.</p>
<p>On the other side of the deal, only one of the teenagers had made it out of rookie league ball. Maybe they could pitch; maybe they couldn’t. Nobody quite knew.</p>
<p>David Stearns and his team had a hunch though, so they pulled the trigger on a deal that was all the more gutsy for the fact that it came just two months into the young GM’s Milwaukee tenure. Adam Lind took his stick to Seattle, and the youth movement quietly dispersed among the Brewers’ minor league affiliates.</p>
<p>The move garnered mixed reviews. There were the casual fans who liked Lind’s stats and were agog that no member of the return had ever graced an organizational top prospect list. There were the newly-minted Stearns acolytes who preached process over production and saw the move as a bold step towards a brighter, faraway future. Even the BP Milwaukee staff couldn’t quite decide. Jack Moore, while recognizing that the mediocre Lind was “a better baseball player for the spectator than he is for the general manager,” concluded that the trade was “one of those times” that “<span class="Hyperlink0"><a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/14/adam-lind-and-the-robbery-of-rebuilding/">rebuilding just feels like getting robbed</a></span>.” JP Breen, meanwhile, viewed the transaction as &#8220;<span class="Hyperlink0"><a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/10/stearns-shows-his-houston-roots-in-trading-adam-lind/">an attempt to acquire quantity and quality</a></span>,” and “a conscious attempt at acquiring high-end prospects—just a year or two before they become high-end prospects.”</p>
<p>That was the fun of this trade. Nobody knew what to make of it at the time, and nobody really <i>would</i> until considerable time had passed.</p>
<p>Two years later, the shadowy shapes of a narrative are starting to emerge.</p>
<p>We’ll start with Lind. In 2016, Lind batted .239 for the Mariners with 20 home runs, a free-falling walk rate, and a .240 TAv. He was worth -0.8 WARP. Suffice it to say that this is not a high bar for Stearns and company to clear. Then again, Stearns’ hurdlers are the kind of prospects who very, very rarely pan out.</p>
<p>Carlos Herrera, the youngest of the group at just over 20, has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular, climb up the organizational rungs. He pitched the 2016 season in the Arizona League, soaking up 50 innings and plenty of sun en route to a 4.50 ERA / 4.48 DRA campaign. He fanned 49 and walked 12. He started 2017 in Helena, where batters brutalized him to the tune of a 7.49 DRA. But Milwaukee liked his strikeouts (11.1 per nine) and potential, so they bumped him to Appleton mid-season. He recorded a 3.79 ERA for the Timber Rattlers in 38 innings. But somewhere along his journey from Montana, he lost half his strikeouts and doubled his walks, so his 4.97 DRA tells a different story.</p>
<p>Still, Herrera is an interesting arm, if also a slender one. At 6’2” and 150 pounds, he has some trouble filling out his uniform. But he sits in the low-90s, slings the ball from a low, three-quarters slot, and can cut and sink his fastball and spin a decent curve. If he fills out and develops his lagging changeup, he could worm his way into the mid-to-back end of a Milwaukee rotation one day. Failing that, it’s not altogether difficult to envision a home in the bullpen. First, he’ll need to rediscover the command that allowed him to strike out 26 batters and walk only five in Helena. The lanky righty does have a few believers; per BP’s Jeffrey Paternostro, “<span class="Hyperlink0"><a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/34948/2018-prospects-milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects-lewis-brinson-monte-harrison-keston-hiura-rankings/">there’s something about Herrera, man</a></span>.”</p>
<p>On the opposite end of the age spectrum lies Daniel Missaki, a six-foot righty who turned heads in rookie ball in 2013 and 2014 and held his own in the Midwest League in 2015 before snapping a ligament and succumbing to Tommy John. It’s been a rough road for Missaki since: he missed all of 2016 recovering, and a second Tommy John surgery wiped out last season. He has yet to throw a pitch for a Brewers affiliate. Before the rash of injuries, Missaki drew praise for his strong command, which he complemented with lively fastball and surprising secondaries; his changeup, in particular, turned heads. Missaki still has youth on his side, but the balky elbow seriously clouds his future.</p>
<p>That leaves Freddy Peralta as the goldilocks prospect, at 20 years and five months old. Peralta doesn’t have a conventional starter’s build, standing at 5’11” and tipping the scales at 175 pounds. He also lacks premium velocity on his fastball. But the pitch dances all over the strike zone and pairs well with what could turn into an excellent mid-80s slider. Peralta can go slower, too pulling the string on a decent changeup and trying to spin in a curve every now and then, though the latter pitch trails the former. It’s a decent profile that could easily work in the ‘pen, even if his size keeps him from the starting five.</p>
<p>And then there are the results. Last season, Peralta posterized opposing hitters with rare impunity. He started the year in the Carolina League, where a sorry string of regretful batters struck out 78 times in 56.3 innings. A high helping of walks tempered expectations, but the kid only allowed 6.2 hits per nine innings and was bumped to Biloxi in June after posting a 3.49 DRA. He was even better at AA, tossing 63.7 frames of 2.15 DRA ball with 91 strikeouts and 31 walks (while facing batters that were, on average, three years his senior). Even if he’s never more than a mid-rotation MLB arm, he put on an electrifying show in 2017.</p>
<p>It may still too early to draw firm conclusions about the Adam Lind trade. But we could be calling it the Freddy Peralta trade pretty soon, and Carlos Herrera may not be too far behind. (We can talk about Daniel Missaki whenever he’s next able to throw a pitch.) Right now, David Stearns’s bold move is looking very, very shrewd.</p>
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		<title>Top Brewers Storylines of 2015: Resurrection of the Farm System</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/30/top-brewers-storylines-of-2015-resurrection-of-the-farm-system/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Dec 2015 14:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ryan Romano]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Houser]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Phillips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cody Ponce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colin Walsh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colorado Springs Sky Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Missaki]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Demi Orimoloye]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devin Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Domingo Santana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddy Peralta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garin Cecchini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gilbert Lara]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jake Gatewood]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Javier Betancourt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Hader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keon Broxton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kodi Medeiros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcos Diplan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor Leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Harrison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nathan Kirby]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Orlando Arcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taylor Jungmann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Too Many Tags]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Top Storylines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trent Clark]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trey Supak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyrone Taylor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yadiel Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yhonathan Barrios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zach Davies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Jones]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3053</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Monday, my colleague Jack Moore covered the departure of Doug Melvin, one of the bigger developments to emerge from this year. While Melvin certainly had his strengths as General Manager, his failures ultimately outweighed his successes — and chief among the former was, as Moore cited, Melvin&#8217;s utter inability to construct a respectable minor [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Monday, my colleague <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/28/top-brewers-storylines-of-2015-stearns-out-melvin-in/" target="_blank">Jack Moore covered the departure of Doug Melvin</a>, one of the bigger developments to emerge from this year. While Melvin certainly had his strengths as General Manager, his failures ultimately outweighed his successes — and chief among the former was, as Moore cited, Melvin&#8217;s utter inability to construct a respectable minor league system.</p>
<p>Of course, Melvin didn&#8217;t always struggle in this facet of management. The first five years of his tenure (2003-2007) saw the Brewers draft Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy, among others. Those players combined with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall — whom the team had selected in the pre-Melvin seasons — to form a strong nucleus that helped the club make playoff runs in 2008 and 2011.</p>
<p>After that, however, the prospect well dried up — such that, for five years running, the Brewers have placed in the bottom five of BP&#8217;s organizational rankings:</p>
<table class="sortable" border="1" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Year</th>
<th align="center">BP Rank</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2008</td>
<td align="center">13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2009</td>
<td align="center">15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2010</td>
<td align="center">25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2011</td>
<td align="center">30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2012</td>
<td align="center">28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2013</td>
<td align="center">27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2014</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2015</td>
<td align="center">26</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>[Note: These rankings began in 2008.]</em></p>
<p>With the aforementioned core heading to the Major Leagues, Milwaukee sorely needed to replenish its system. Melvin responded with the opposite due to the club&#8217;s competitive window. In deals for <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/3084786/" target="_blank">CC Sabathia</a>, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/16345284/" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a>, and <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/brewers-acquire-shaun-marcum.html" target="_blank">Shaun Marcum</a>, he sent away Matt LaPorta, Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffess, and Brett Lawrie. Some of those players didn&#8217;t end up accomplishing much, but the prosperity of some of them — particularly Brantley and Cain, each of whom has played at a borderline-MVP level in the past couple years — have made many fans regret the trades retrospectively.</p>
<p>Inadequate drafting compounded the woes of those deals. Jack noted in his piece that the club&#8217;s picks from later years haven&#8217;t yet amounted to much. Over the past few years, teams such as the Rangers have managed to maintain a solid minor-league system despite swinging big trades, and they&#8217;ve done so by constantly restocking their affiliates through the draft and international free agency. Part of that is good scouting, too, while part of that is a willingness to spend money. Melvin&#8217;s Brewers partook in the former half of the equation while neglecting the latter half, though, and it has come back to haunt them.</p>
<p>With that said, Milwaukee has made recent strides. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27976" target="_blank">BP&#8217;s</a> <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/03/milwaukee-brewers-top-prospects-11-20/" target="_blank">writeup</a> of the farm system stated that it possessed &#8220;talent to makes several teams quite jealous&#8221; — a massive improvement from its standing over the past several seasons. After spending the first half of the decade in the minor-league cellar, the 2015 Brewers have taken the necessary steps to move back up to the top half.</p>
<p>Part of this, in fairness, happened before this year. In August, <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/18/brewers-drafts-during-melvins-tenure/" target="_blank">Julien Assouline analyzed</a> the team&#8217;s drafts under Melvin, who had perhaps not received the credit he deserved. Some of Melvin&#8217;s strengths there stem from the early years, but even in the later part of his run with the Brewers, they fared moderately well. <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/13/draft-success-bruce-seid/" target="_blank">Derek Harvey commented</a> that the club&#8217;s drafts from 2009 to 2014, under late scouting director Bruce Seid, provided them with numerous quality players that presently stock their system. Indeed, of the top-20 current Milwaukee prospects, eight — Jorge Lopez, Devin Williams, Monte Harrison, Tyrone Taylor, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeiros, Yadiel Rivera, and Michael Reed — came from drafts during that span, while Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara signed with the team as amateur free agents in that period.</p>
<p>Still, an improvement of this magnitude, and in this short a span, suggests something different in the past twelve months. Part of the difference stems from the 2015 draft, which has (to this point) yielded incredible rewards. Four of those top-20 prospects came to the team in June: Trent Clark, Cody Ponce, Demi Orimoloye, and Nathan Kirby. Clark stands out as the best of the bunch, but all four have intriguing upside and could continue to blossom further. New scouting director Ray Montgomery, as Harvey observed, seems to have taken off.</p>
<p>The team&#8217;s decision to finally rebuild has helped with that. July saw them deal away established starters <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/23/transaction-analysis-brewers-send-aramis-ramirez-to-pittsburgh/" target="_blank">Aramis Ramirez</a>, <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/02/brewers-trade-parra-broxton-at-deadline/" target="_blank">Gerardo Parra</a>, and <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/02/brewers-trade-parra-broxton-at-deadline/" target="_blank">Jonathan Broxton</a>, as well as (relative) stars <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27095" target="_blank">Carlos Gomez</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27095" target="_blank">Mike Fiers</a>. Those trades — which, as <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/04/rebuilding-retooling-remodeling-or-whatever/" target="_blank">J.P. Breen correctly posited</a>, meant the team had recognized that its window has closed — brought back a great deal of prospects. Yhonathan Barrios, Zach Davies, Malik Collymore, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser now occupy various levels of the Milwaukee system; Phillips, Davies, Houser, and Hader ranked in the top 20, while <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/24/the-good-and-the-bad-for-domingo-santana/" target="_blank">Santana has already begun to contribute</a> at The Show. Together with Marcos Diplan, <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/08/prospect-profile-marcos-diplan/" target="_blank">an intriguing top-20 farmhand</a> whom the team acquired in last <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25391" target="_blank">January&#8217;s Yovani Gallardo swap</a>, they amount to a formidable group.</p>
<p>Overall, David Stearns inherited a solid amount of prospects when he became the GM in August. <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/04/the-brewers-prospect-landscape/" target="_blank">Surveying the trove</a> a couple weeks before Melvin stepped down, Derek Harvey concluded that the system had gone from the bottom to the upper half of the league — a prediction that, as stated previously, we&#8217;ve likely seen come true. Stearns didn&#8217;t stop there, though. In his four-odd months atop the organization, he&#8217;s made several trades to bolster the minor- and major-league depth, further improving the system as a whole.</p>
<p>The first two transactions came in mid-November. <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/20/the-value-of-jonathan-villar-to-a-rebuilding-team/" target="_blank">Stearns swapped Cy Sneed</a> for the Astros&#8217; Jonathan Villar, then followed that up <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/19/k-rod-traded-to-detroit-stearns-has-no-favorites/" target="_blank">by shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers</a> in exchange for Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). Seth Victor described Villar at the time as &#8220;a good acquisition for a team that needs middle infield depth and flexibility,&#8221; a player who won&#8217;t make a noticeable difference yet should still provide some value. Betancourt — who rounded out the top 20 — is, in Chris Crawford&#8217;s estimation, &#8220;a high-floor prospect with a fairly well-defined ceiling.&#8221; In other words, he could become a Villar-type player a few years down the road.</p>
<p>After BP published its top-20 list, Stearns has made a few more moves, evidently in an effort to muck up the rankings. First came the Adam Lind trade, which brought back three young pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta. While I can certainly see the logic in <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/14/adam-lind-and-the-robbery-of-rebuilding/" target="_blank">Jack&#8217;s distaste for the deal</a> — Lind gave us something to cheer for in this dreadful 2015 season, and those players always hurt to lose — I ultimately come down on <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/10/stearns-shows-his-houston-roots-in-trading-adam-lind/" target="_blank">the side of J.P.</a>, who expressed cautious optimism regarding it.</p>
<p>Not long after that, three more prospects came to Milwaukee. The day following Lind&#8217;s departure, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28046" target="_blank">the Red Sox sold Garin Cecchini to the Brewers</a> for cash considerations. BP&#8217;s Bryan Grosnick called the deal &#8220;[t]he definition of &#8216;buying low,'&#8221; as a disastrous 2015 had caused Cecchini&#8217;s stock to plummet. Likewise, the players <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28044" target="_blank">Milwaukee snagged in the Rule 5 draft</a> — Colin Walsh from the Athletics and Zack Jones from the Twins — don&#8217;t carry elite pedigrees, or much upside, for that matter.</p>
<p>These deals nevertheless give the Brewers plenty of options for 2016 and beyond, as <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/14/david-stearns-is-accumulating-options-isnt-done/" target="_blank">J.P. outlined</a> a few weeks ago. (Plus, the quantity acquired from these transactions only increased thereafter, when <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/18/brewers-get-creative-trade-rogers-to-pittsburgh/" target="_blank">the Brewers sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates</a>, receiving Keon Broxton and Trey Supak in return.) Overall, the solid 2015 draft, along with Stearns&#8217;s willingness to trade anything not nailed down, has translated to a complete turnaround in Milwaukee&#8217;s minor-league system.</p>
<p>What does this mean for 2016? Well, as J.P. pointed out, the Brewers have more routes they can take at the Major League level; although few of those will likely lead to wins, the results should give the team some clarity for 2017. More immediately, it means the Triple-A Sky Sox will presumably play better in 2016. <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/17/hope-springs-with-the-2016-sky-sox/" target="_blank">Michael Schwarz explained</a> how that affiliate would progress with legitimate prospects filling its roster. The biggest takeaway here, though, is general optimism. Years and years of no future, at long last, appear to have come to an end. Now, more so than at any point in recent memory, there could be hope on the Milwaukee horizon.</p>
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		<title>Stearns Shows His Houston Roots In Trading Adam Lind</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/10/stearns-shows-his-houston-roots-in-trading-adam-lind/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2015 14:30:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[J.P. Breen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Lind]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Missaki]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddy Peralta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2884</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Wednesday, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Adam Lind to Seattle for a trio of teenage pitchers who have yet to pitch in full-season ball in the minors and are not ranked in the Mariners&#8217; top-30 prospects by MLB.com. It&#8217;s the sort of deal that elicits sighs and groans from the Milwaukee faithful, rather than fist [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Wednesday, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Adam Lind to Seattle for a trio of teenage pitchers who have yet to pitch in full-season ball in the minors and are not ranked in the Mariners&#8217; top-30 prospects by MLB.com. It&#8217;s the sort of deal that elicits sighs and groans from the Milwaukee faithful, rather than fist pumps and celebrations. It&#8217;s the sort of deal that lends itself to the &#8220;Brewers Trade [Known Player] For Prospects&#8221; narrative that small-market fans abhor, the narrative that drives away casual fans.</p>
<p>With that being said, new general manager David Stearns didn&#8217;t necessarily negotiate a poor return for a player who hit .277/.360/.460 in 2015 with 20 homers. The trade is just more difficult to understand because the assets in question are unknown quantities. Hell, even many within the scouting community have never heard of these players or have never seen them in person. As such, the long-term gain is too abstract to evaluate with any sense of certainty.</p>
<p>The Brewers obviously like the three pitchers they received in the deal. Right-hander Carlos Herrera (who just turned 18) spent last season in the Dominican Summer League, posting a 3.26 ERA with a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.62 K/BB). He throws in the high-80s and low-90s with some projectability. A couple scouts told me that he&#8217;s the real prize in this deal, even if he&#8217;s a bit of a mystery. Daniel Missaki is another right-handed hurler (only 19 years old) who is best known for his time with the Brazilian national team. He&#8217;s currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but reportedly has good feel for multiple pitches. Finally, Freddy Peralta (also 19) popped up on the prospect radar in 2014 when his velocity ticked upward into the mid-90s. The heater regressed this past season, though, and his 4.11 ERA won&#8217;t capture one&#8217;s attention. Still, the 8.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio is tremendous and eases some of the concern about his ugly run prevention.</p>
<p>David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/deal-sending-adam-lind-to-mariners-appears-close-b99631117z1-361244271.html"><em>Milwaukee Journal Sentinel</em></a>, &#8220;Whenever you acquire players that are farther away, there is more variance&#8230;.So, in a deal like this, we&#8217;re really targeting that variability to find an impact-type pitcher, even if it&#8217;s multiple years down the road.&#8221; This means that Herrera, Missaki or Peralta could flame out before Double-A or they could become useful Major League arms. And given the fact that we&#8217;re perhaps talking about another three-to-five years until the muddled picture becomes somewhat clear, this trade cannot possibly resonate with the vast majority of Brewers fans. It requires patience with absolutely no guarantee of any return on that investment.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s why the Adam Lind trade is best understood through its process, what acquiring three no-name teenagers can tell us about David Stearns and his overall strategy for the club.</p>
<p>It appears that Stearns is carrying over a key piece of the Houston Astros&#8217; rebuilding playbook, in which a club <em>cannot </em><em>be afraid </em>of targeting extremely young pitchers in the low minors &#8212; especially in return for non-elite Major League assets. The Astros, for example, got David Paulino for Jose Veras and Francis Martes as the &#8220;throw-in&#8221; in the Jarred Cosart deal. Both of those formerly no-name prospects are now two of the hottest prospects in the Astros&#8217; farm system. It&#8217;s a conscious approach that Evan Drellich of the <em>Houston Chronicle </em><a href="http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2015/09/08/astros-pro-scouting-strategy-hits-big-on-francis-martes-david-paulino/">profiled in September</a>. This Lind trade is an example of David Stearns trusting his scouting department, trying to bring unknown prospects into the Brewers&#8217; system before they have a chance to mature and have a breakout season. Because after that hypothetical breakout, the Brewers would no longer be able to afford the asking price. The ultimate buy-low strategy, if you will.</p>
<p>Of course, this type of strategy puts a premium on scouting and player evaluation. They have to get it right enough to make it worthwhile. Fortunately, recent success in drafts leads one to believe that the Brewers&#8217; scouting department has quality members who are capable of getting the job done well. Ray Montgomery and his staff have been aces over the past couple years.</p>
<p>All of this doesn&#8217;t mean Stearns and the Brewers will consistently eschew big-league players or guys in the upper minors. This simply indicates that the Brewers will not rely on Doug Melvin&#8217;s strategy of targeting players who have already found success in the Double-A level or above. Stearns already has seen this type of strategy work in Houston and appears to be transitioning it over to Milwaukee.</p>
<p>It is also important to recognize that quantity should not be ignored during a rebuilding process. The Milwaukee Brewers must stuff the farm system with as much talent as possible and across the minor-league spectrum. This isn&#8217;t just to spread out one&#8217;s hypothetical competitive window, nor is it some kind of &#8220;throw dozens of prospects at the wall and see who sticks&#8221; argument. Instead, I&#8217;m acknowledging the fact that Milwaukee needs excess minor-league talent. It&#8217;s not enough to have the next core of homegrown players in the minors. An organization must also have the depth necessary to trade for <em>more </em>Major League players. Just as the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and Toronto Blue Jays are all beginning to flex their prospect muscles to maximize their windows of contention (which are of varying sizes), the Milwaukee Brewers must have the prospect depth to <em>both </em>develop a core and supplement it.</p>
<p>In the end, this Adam Lind deal should be understood as an attempt to acquire quantity and quality. The latter is more abstract and won&#8217;t pay dividends for perhaps a half-decade, but it is clearly a conscious attempt at acquiring high-end prospects &#8212; just a year or two before they become high-end prospects. This is just more evidence that David Stearns and his staff are willing to be creative and patient, a highly desirable combination during a full-scale rebuilding process. Brewers fans should be happy, regardless of how the three young pitchers turn out.</p>
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