At this point it doesn’t seem likely that Slingin’ Stearns will be doing any deals this summer that involve shipping out an MLB player for prospects, so he won’t be able to replenish his talent pipeline that way anytime soon. The amateur draft is held annually every June and the Brewers figure to be able to pick up some promising talent through that avenue. However, what would go the furthest to re-establishing a healthy farm system in the eyes of scouts would be the improvement of some of the prospects that are already in the system.

With that in mind, there is a trio of largely forgotten minor league hurlers that fans ought to consider keeping an eye on in 2018. According to Todd Rosiak of the Journal Sentinel, three formerly well-regarded pitching prospects should be ready to return to action for the upcoming season: Nathan Kirby, Daniel Missaki, and Devin Williams. Each individual is attempting to get back to full strength after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Kirby is probably the most recognizable name of the bunch, as it was just two drafts ago that the now-24 year old southpaw was Milwaukee’s selection as a supplemental first-rounder (#40 overall). After leading Virginia to a College World Series title, a post-draft physical revealed some elbow issues and caused Milwaukee to re-negotiate Kirby’s bonus, slashing some $300,000 off of their originally agreed upon total. Kirby would make just five appearances and toss 12.7 innings in Class A before being diagnosed with a damaged UCL that required him to go under the knife. That cost him all of the 2016 season. Just when it looked like he was nearing a return to the mound last year, Kirby was dealt another blow with a diagnosis of ulnar neuritits, an inflammation of the ulnar nerve that causes numbness or weakness in the hand. Because of the second procedure, Kirby was unable to throw a competitive pitch in 2017.

It’s been two years since Kirby has seen game action, but when he was last healthy Baseball America described his repetoire as “a fastball that sits in the low 90s with good life, an above-average changeup and the late-breaking slider in the mid-80s he used to put away Vandy. …His combination of athleticism and stuff should allow him to move quickly once healthy and make it to the majors as a mid-rotation starter.” Baseball Prospectus echoed this sentiment while listing the lefty as a “just interesting” prospect entering 2016, noting, “When he is healthy he’ll show two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and there’s the makings of a solid-average change to boot. Add in feel for pitching and you get a solid mid-rotation starter, but we’ll have to see how he responds to the surgery before you can start placing him in the Brewers rotation.” Kirby is under no restrictions this spring as he tries to get his professional career going in earnest in 2018.

Like Kirby, Daniel Missaki has also not thrown a competitive pitch in more than two seasons. Missaki was one of the three teenage arms that Seattle parted with during the 2015-16 offseason in order to acquire Adam Lind, and at the time of the deal he was probably the most well-known of that group. The right-hander was the youngest player to appear in the 2013 World Baseball Classic, pitching for Brazil as a 17 year old. He posted a 2.76 ERA and 88 DRA- in 11 starts in the Appalachian League in 2014 and was in the process of an excellent full-season debut in 2015 before a UCL injury and subsequent Tommy John stopped him in his tracks. Missaki was still recovering from the procedure when the Brewers picked him up, but he had a setback during the rehab process that required him to undergo a second ligament replacement procedure.

Missaki missed all of 2016 and 2017, but this spring is nearing a return to throwing. When last healthy as a 19-year old, Missaki didn’t feature any plus offerings according to BA, but his repetoire played up due to his ability to command the baseball and pound the zone with strikes. The upcoming season will be only Missaki’s age-22 campaign, giving him plenty of time to get his development back on track once fully healthy.

Finally, Devin Williams was considered one of the org’s top pitching prospects during the pre-rebuild days back when the farm system was viewed as one of the weakest in the league. That shouldn’t be much of a knock against Williams, though, who actually posted some pretty promising results after getting selected in the 2nd round of the 2013 MLB Draft. Williams owns a career 3.79 ERA in 287.1 minor league innings, and had just made it to Class-A Advanced for the first time in his age-21 season in 2016 before going down with an elbow injury in Spring Training last season. He missed all of the 2017 campaign but his rehab process has progressed to the point where he is currently throwing off a flat mound.

Former BP scout James Fisher caught a glimpse of Williams during the final weeks of the 2016 season and came away with a positive impression. He gave the righty a 55 OFP and likely grade of 50, saying he could be a #4 starter or high-impact reliever at the game’s highest level. When last healthy, Williams was throwing a plus fastball in the 91-94 MPH range along with a plus changeup and a slider that projected as average. Williams has been praised for repeating his delivery well and generating velocity without much effort, but his command has been an issue as he’s struggled to maintain a consistent release point. Still only 23, Williams should have plenty of opportunity to reclaim his spot on the top prospects lists.

Returning from Tommy John surgery is no sure thing, but it’s no longer considered to be the death knell that it was a couple of decades ago. If even one of Nathan Kirby, Daniel Missaki, or Devin Williams can find their pre-surgery form, it would go a long way towards re-establishing Milwaukee’s collection of minor league talent as one that is in the upper-tier of Major League Baseball.

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Timber Rattler Bats

BPMilwaukee has been lucky to have the watchful eye of BP Scout James Fisher covering the Midwest League. On a recent trip, Fisher extensively scouted some of the Timber Rattlers’ biggest names and sleepers alike. This feature will include a statistical overview of the competitive levels and performance of these prospects, as well as some notes on their respective tools and ceilings.

Midwest League Environment
Judging minor league players by their statistics is a tricky endeavor. First and foremost, since players are developing their tools at the minor league level, their actual performances on the field are not always indicative of their MLB ceiling or potential future value. Furthermore, if a player is honing in on one specific area of their respective toolbox, other areas of their performance may suffer in their statistics. In this case, it is somewhat possible to have a player move forward without necessarily showcasing each of their tools in their statistical record. Age and development levels can also impact a player’s performance; this is especially true in the Midwest League, for instance, where a 19-year-old performing in their first full season of professional play after being drafted out of high school would be expected to perform at a different level than a polished college player working in their age-21 or age-22 season.

With that in mind, one way to consider minor league statistics is by judging each player within their specific context of age, opposition strength, and league strength. For example, the Midwest League is a much more depressed environment than the Class-A counterpart South Atlantic League, which impacts how one can read statistics:

With this in mind, I developed two charts to judge batting and pitching context for the Midwest League. 218 Midwest League batters have had regular play after the June draft or throughout the season, with a base threshold of 130 PA:

The 90% percentile is most elite, meaning that a player facing .661 opposingOPS pitchers is facing tougher competition than 90% of the league, or a .300 TAv is better than 90% of Midwest League regulars (i.e., the other way around, that player would be in the Top 10% of production). In terms of age, the 20th percentile is old for the level, the 90th percentile age is extremely young.

For pitchers, 228 arms have worked 30 innings or more:

In this case, a 2.55 FIP is better than 90% of regular hurlers, and a pitcher that faces a .682 opposingOPS is facing tougher competition than 90% of the Midwest League regular arms. One can note that comparing the full Midwest League with “regular players,” regular batters (130+ PA) have posted a much better median TAv than the league median (.252 TAv for regulars, .243 TAv for the full league). So, one might expect a regular batter to have a better performance in this sense (depending on their age and strength of opposition, of course).

Wisconsin Pitchers Scouted
The following entries are built from James Fisher’s scouting notes, the vast majority of which were compiled during an early August series in Appleton. Notes on Zack Brown and Corbin Burnes were added during a recent Beloit series.

Zack Brown – RHP (50th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Brown has a tall, lean frame with room for more. Starts from a semi-windup and 3/4 slot, and arm action shows some warts with high back elbow, effort, and head whack out front. Fastball sat 90-94 and touched 95 with sink and finish down in the zone. Showed feel to both sides of the plate with swing and miss. Showed average feel for the curveball with 10/4 shape at 79-82, which is a swing-and-miss pitch, a power breaking ball with bite. Changeup is too firm at 82-85 and lacks true action. Brown can be effective with fastball/curveball combo, but will need third pitch to succeed.
MLB Role: Back end of the bullpen type in big leagues.
Wisconsin Note: Notably young, posting a median FIP against relatively weak competition.

Corbin Burnes – RHP (20th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Medium frame with small shoulders. Burnes starts from a semi-windup and 3/4 slot. The arm action in the back is a little floppy and there is some effort throughout. Fastball sat 90-94 and touched 96. Burnes also throws a little cutter at 88-90 with late break. Fastball command limited in this outing, with front shoulder fly open. Most misses were arm side. Curveball sat 74-78, which started off slurvy but firmed up to 11/4 shape with bite and depth as the outing progressed. Showed feel for the pitch. Slider at 80 with short lateral break. It lacked depth in this outing. Changeup was 83-85 with below average fade. Threw enough strikes in this outing to be effective, but needs to reign in command to stay a starter.
MLB Role: 3 or 4 starter at the big league level.
Wisconsin Note: Poor FIP from a notably young pitcher facing slightly below-median competition.

Jordan Desguin – RHP (20th percentile FIP, 50th percentile age, 60th percentile competition) – Stocky, medium framed righty. Desguin starts from a high ¾ slot and a semi-windup. Pitches with a slightly below average fastball at 87-91, with some 2-seam action to it. His curveball sits 75-78 with 11/4 shape but lacks quality rotation and bite to the pitch. Changeup has marginal fade at 81-84, but Desguin keeps arm speed. High A ceiling. In Wisconsin, Desguin is median age, facing slightly stronger than median competition.

Jake Drossner – LHP (below 20th percentile FIP, 50th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): Drossner has a big, pro-style frame with little room remaining. Starts from a semi-windup and has a high ¾ slot. The elbow gets a touch high in the back and he pitches uphill through a high front shoulder. The southpaw pitches with a 6 fastball at present, sitting 90-94 with some late wiggle down in the zone. The Curveball lacks quality spin, but is thrown at 73-76 with 1/7 shape. Drossner can steal a strike call with it early in the count. The changeup sits 81-84 with slight fade when he keeps his arm speed. AA/AAA Roster filler ceiling. In Wisconsin, Drossner is median age, posting a poor FIP against median competition.

Nathan Griep – RHP (80th percentile FIP, 50th percentile age, 60th percentile competition): Large frame with High ¾ slot and funky delivery. Grief has a high, floppy elbow in back with effort throughout. Fastball sits 92-94 with armside run and some sink. Breaking ball is downer with bite, 11/4 shape. Changeup sits at 79 but lacks proper arm speed and authority. Lacks the ability to command the baseball. Thrower, not a pitcher. AA ceiling at best. In Wisconsin, median-aged Griep is posting a notably above average FIP against relatively tough competition.

David Lucroy – RHP (below 20th percentile FIP, 20th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Pro-style frame with ¾ slot. The righty is short in the back, with a high elbow and stiffness throughout the delivery. Fastball sits 85-90 and is fairly straight. Lucroy’s curve sits 72-78, and he lacks feel for spin with 11/5 shape. High-A at best. In Wisconsin, Lucroy is relatively old, and is posting a poor FIP against relatively weak competition.

Trey Supak – RHP (20th percentile FIP, 80th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): Supak has a large, pro-style frame with strong lower half. Starts from a semi-windup and high ¾ slot. The delivery isn’t smooth, but there aren’t major concerns in the delivery; Supak is a little herky jerky. The fastball is a 6 to a tick above and sits 91-95. It’s a heavy ball with some arm side run. The righty locates the pitch to both sides of the plate, and isn’t afraid to elevate when needed. The curveball sits 87-80 with large 11/5 shape. It has average spin with consistent depth. The changeup sits 80-81 with fade and Supak keeps his armspeed.
MLB Role: Back end of the rotation potential.
Wisconsin Note: Supak is posting a poor FIP, although he is notably younger than the median pitcher, while also facing median competition.

Quintin Torres-Costa – LHP (70th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 30th percentile competition) – L3/4 slinger with average fastball and long sweepy breaking ball. Starts from an extremely closed off stance and strides closed creating deception from his arm slot. Left handed hitters don’t see it well out of the hand. Fastball sits 88-92 with run/sink that gets under hitters hands. Commands it armside but often loses the pitch gloveside. Sweepy, slurvy breaking ball that sits 74-76 with 2/8 shape. It has a long break that A-ball hitters struggle with but more advanced hitters will lay off of. At best, with a tighter breaking ball, a LOOGY at the big league level.
MLB Role: Situational relief.
Wisconsin Note: Torres-Costa is relatively young, and he is producing a strong FIP against relatively weak competition.

Devin Williams – RHP (40th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 60th percentile competition): Fisher noted, when asked to highlight a specific player, “I think the recently promoted Devin Williams needs some attention, his Changeup is truly fun to watch.” Fisher’s notes bear this fact:

Williams has a lean frame with broad shoulders, and room for more strength. Starts from a step back semi-windup and a high ¾ slot. He has a high leg lift and no major issues on the back side. Strides towards home plate with a flexed landing leg. The fastball is a 6 with 90-94, touching 96 when he needs it. The fastball is fairly straight, but Williams is working on a wrinkle 2-seamer around 87-88 to keep hitters honest. Controls the pitch to both sides of the plate and will elevate at 95 when he wants a K.

Williams’s changeup is a true 6, with quality arm speed and fade. When it’s right, hitters have no chance. Isn’t afraid to double up on the pitch to either side of the plate. Curveball sits 78-81 with inconsistent shape and spin. The curve is at its best when the shape is 11/5 with downer spin. Slider is being thrown more lately at 83-85 with shorter shape that he can get around on. Has some feel for spin, so one of the two breaking balls will get to average. Williams has really taken a step forward this year, and it’s fun to watch.
MLB Role: Back end of the rotation potential.
Wisconsin Note: Williams is posting a slightly below-median FIP, although the righty is relatively young and facing slightly stronger-than-median competition.

Jordan Yamamoto – RHP (80th percentile FIP, 80th percentile age, 40th percentile competition)– 6’0’’ righty with plus fastball and feel for spin. Starts from a ¾ slot and semi-windup. The delivery gets a little soft in the back. Lands flexed and online. FB sits 91-93 T94 with slight armside run. Curveball sits 74-76 with 10/4 shape. Loopier soft breaking ball that lacks bite and depth. Slider sits 82-84 with tighter rotation but still lacks average rotation and bite. Sweepy. Changeup lacks consistent arm speed but when thrown properly flashes fade. Command profile weak at present with side-to-side fastball but softness in back of delivery will keep from becoming average. AA/AAA roster filler ceiling. Wisconsin Note: Yamamoto is extremely young, and posting an excellent FIP against slightly-below median competition.

Did Not See:
Miguel Diaz – RHP (30th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition); Alex Farina – RHP (40th percentile FIP, 20th percentile age, 30th percentile competition); Scott Grist – RHP (40th percentile FIP, below 20th percentile age, 20th percentile competition); Thomas Jankins – RHP (90th percentile FIP, 80th percentile age, 90th percentile competition [!!!]).

DL:
David Burkhalter (60th FIP, 80th age, 20th competition), Conor Harber (80th FIP, 40th age, 30th competition), Drake Owenby (below 20th FIP, 40th age, 70th competition), Chase Williams (80th FIP, 20th age, 90th competition).

James Fisher is a BaseballProspectus scout and author.

Of course, Melvin didn’t always struggle in this facet of management. The first five years of his tenure (2003-2007) saw the Brewers draft Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy, among others. Those players combined with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall — whom the team had selected in the pre-Melvin seasons — to form a strong nucleus that helped the club make playoff runs in 2008 and 2011.

After that, however, the prospect well dried up — such that, for five years running, the Brewers have placed in the bottom five of BP’s organizational rankings:

[Note: These rankings began in 2008.]

With the aforementioned core heading to the Major Leagues, Milwaukee sorely needed to replenish its system. Melvin responded with the opposite due to the club’s competitive window. In deals for CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum, he sent away Matt LaPorta, Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffess, and Brett Lawrie. Some of those players didn’t end up accomplishing much, but the prosperity of some of them — particularly Brantley and Cain, each of whom has played at a borderline-MVP level in the past couple years — have made many fans regret the trades retrospectively.

Inadequate drafting compounded the woes of those deals. Jack noted in his piece that the club’s picks from later years haven’t yet amounted to much. Over the past few years, teams such as the Rangers have managed to maintain a solid minor-league system despite swinging big trades, and they’ve done so by constantly restocking their affiliates through the draft and international free agency. Part of that is good scouting, too, while part of that is a willingness to spend money. Melvin’s Brewers partook in the former half of the equation while neglecting the latter half, though, and it has come back to haunt them.

With that said, Milwaukee has made recent strides. BP’s writeup of the farm system stated that it possessed “talent to makes several teams quite jealous” — a massive improvement from its standing over the past several seasons. After spending the first half of the decade in the minor-league cellar, the 2015 Brewers have taken the necessary steps to move back up to the top half.

Part of this, in fairness, happened before this year. In August, Julien Assouline analyzed the team’s drafts under Melvin, who had perhaps not received the credit he deserved. Some of Melvin’s strengths there stem from the early years, but even in the later part of his run with the Brewers, they fared moderately well. Derek Harvey commented that the club’s drafts from 2009 to 2014, under late scouting director Bruce Seid, provided them with numerous quality players that presently stock their system. Indeed, of the top-20 current Milwaukee prospects, eight — Jorge Lopez, Devin Williams, Monte Harrison, Tyrone Taylor, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeiros, Yadiel Rivera, and Michael Reed — came from drafts during that span, while Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara signed with the team as amateur free agents in that period.

Still, an improvement of this magnitude, and in this short a span, suggests something different in the past twelve months. Part of the difference stems from the 2015 draft, which has (to this point) yielded incredible rewards. Four of those top-20 prospects came to the team in June: Trent Clark, Cody Ponce, Demi Orimoloye, and Nathan Kirby. Clark stands out as the best of the bunch, but all four have intriguing upside and could continue to blossom further. New scouting director Ray Montgomery, as Harvey observed, seems to have taken off.

The team’s decision to finally rebuild has helped with that. July saw them deal away established starters Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, and Jonathan Broxton, as well as (relative) stars Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. Those trades — which, as J.P. Breen correctly posited, meant the team had recognized that its window has closed — brought back a great deal of prospects. Yhonathan Barrios, Zach Davies, Malik Collymore, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser now occupy various levels of the Milwaukee system; Phillips, Davies, Houser, and Hader ranked in the top 20, while Santana has already begun to contribute at The Show. Together with Marcos Diplan, an intriguing top-20 farmhand whom the team acquired in last January’s Yovani Gallardo swap, they amount to a formidable group.

Overall, David Stearns inherited a solid amount of prospects when he became the GM in August. Surveying the trove a couple weeks before Melvin stepped down, Derek Harvey concluded that the system had gone from the bottom to the upper half of the league — a prediction that, as stated previously, we’ve likely seen come true. Stearns didn’t stop there, though. In his four-odd months atop the organization, he’s made several trades to bolster the minor- and major-league depth, further improving the system as a whole.

The first two transactions came in mid-November. Stearns swapped Cy Sneed for the Astros’ Jonathan Villar, then followed that up by shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers in exchange for Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). Seth Victor described Villar at the time as “a good acquisition for a team that needs middle infield depth and flexibility,” a player who won’t make a noticeable difference yet should still provide some value. Betancourt — who rounded out the top 20 — is, in Chris Crawford’s estimation, “a high-floor prospect with a fairly well-defined ceiling.” In other words, he could become a Villar-type player a few years down the road.

After BP published its top-20 list, Stearns has made a few more moves, evidently in an effort to muck up the rankings. First came the Adam Lind trade, which brought back three young pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta. While I can certainly see the logic in Jack’s distaste for the deal — Lind gave us something to cheer for in this dreadful 2015 season, and those players always hurt to lose — I ultimately come down on the side of J.P., who expressed cautious optimism regarding it.

Not long after that, three more prospects came to Milwaukee. The day following Lind’s departure, the Red Sox sold Garin Cecchini to the Brewers for cash considerations. BP’s Bryan Grosnick called the deal “[t]he definition of ‘buying low,'” as a disastrous 2015 had caused Cecchini’s stock to plummet. Likewise, the players Milwaukee snagged in the Rule 5 draft — Colin Walsh from the Athletics and Zack Jones from the Twins — don’t carry elite pedigrees, or much upside, for that matter.

These deals nevertheless give the Brewers plenty of options for 2016 and beyond, as J.P. outlined a few weeks ago. (Plus, the quantity acquired from these transactions only increased thereafter, when the Brewers sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates, receiving Keon Broxton and Trey Supak in return.) Overall, the solid 2015 draft, along with Stearns’s willingness to trade anything not nailed down, has translated to a complete turnaround in Milwaukee’s minor-league system.

What does this mean for 2016? Well, as J.P. pointed out, the Brewers have more routes they can take at the Major League level; although few of those will likely lead to wins, the results should give the team some clarity for 2017. More immediately, it means the Triple-A Sky Sox will presumably play better in 2016. Michael Schwarz explained how that affiliate would progress with legitimate prospects filling its roster. The biggest takeaway here, though, is general optimism. Years and years of no future, at long last, appear to have come to an end. Now, more so than at any point in recent memory, there could be hope on the Milwaukee horizon.

LHP Brent Suter:  5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR — 2.38 ERA
RHP Jaye Chapman:  (L, 2-3) 1.1 IP, 0 H, 1 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 2 K — 3.03 ERA
CF Kyle Wren:  3-for-4, RBI, R — .274 AVG
LF Domingo Santana:  1-for-2, 2B, RBI, BB — .321 AVG

RHP Rob Wooten:  3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K — 5.53 ERA
RHP Brandon Kintzler:  1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 5.40 ERA
C Nevin Ashley:  3-for-4, 2B, HR (7), 5 RBI, R — .311 AVG
LF Domingo Santana:  3-for-4, 2 RBI, R — .326 AVG
3B Matt Dominguez:  1-for-4, HR (6), RBI, R, K — .254 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers: (23-23), 3.5 GB

RHP Adrian Houser:  (W, 1-0) 6.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R (2 ER), 0 BB, 8 K, 2 HR — 3.18 ERA
RHP Damien Magnifico:  (S, 15) 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 0 K — 1.25 ERA
CF Brett Phillips:  2-for-4, 2B, BB, R, 2 K — .318 AVG
SS Orlando Arcia:  2-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI, SB (22), R — .300 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (20-25), 8.5 GB

LHP Wei-Chung Wang:  (W, 9-4) 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K — 3.72 ERA
RHP Kaleb Earls:  (S, 6) 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K — 3.40 ERA
RF Clint Coulter:  2-for-4, 2 2B, RBI, 2 R — .246 AVG
3B Taylor Brennan:  1-for-3, 3B, BB, R, K — .246 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (16-29), 16.5 GB

RHP Josh Uhen:  (L, 1-3) 3.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 5.84 ERA
RHP Devin Williams:  4.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 2.99 ERA
C Gregory McCall:  2-for-3, 2B, RBI, BB — .244 AVG
2B Tucker Neuhaus:  1-for-4, 2B, RBI, R, K — .234 AVG

Helena Brewers: (3-10), 5.0 GB

Did not play.

AZL Brewers: (8-7), 1.0 GB

Did not play.

DSL Brewers: (29-35), 13.0 GB

RHP Nelson Hernandez:  5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 4 K — 5.20 ERA
RHP Jesus Brea:  (W, 2-3) 3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 4 K — 4.03 ERA
DH Bismar Nunez:  2-for-4, 2B, 2 R, K — .309 AVG
CF Adolfo Morillo:  2-for-3, SB (7), 2 R, K — .238 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  RHP Devin Williams, Wisconsin

Though Nevin Ashley may have had the best statistical day of anyone in the Brewers’ minor-league system, it’s hard to write too much about a reserve catcher in Triple-A with much gusto. Instead, prized right-hander Devin Williams tossed a quartet of scoreless innings on Thursday evening for the Timber Rattlers, lowering his ERA to 2.99 and continuing his fine form since the All-Star Break — when he’s posted a 2.37 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 38.0 innings.

Williams can touch the mid-90s with his fastball, can spin a breaking ball, and shows flashes with his changeup. It’s a raw arsenal at the moment, which it should be at 20 years old in Class-A ball, but it’s one that shows huge promise. Some have considered him a darkhorse for Top-100 prospect lists for the 2016 season; however, it’s much more likely that he’ll slide under the radar for at least another year, or at least until the Brewers take off the training wheels and let him pitch without restrictions. Not to mention the fact that any Top-100 ranking would be heavily reliant upon projection, rather than polish or proximity to the big leagues. For now, the former Missouri prepster will quietly be one of the top-two pitching prospects in the system, despite the greater attention being placed on arms further up the ladder.

The trade deadline and whether the Brewers will sell in a meaningful way will be an omnipresent and, likely, irritating discussion over the next two-and-a-half weeks. Twitter will be aflutter with tweets about players increasing or decreasing their trade value based on 25 plate appearances, a trio of relief appearances, or a pair of starts. Player values are established by this point. The only things that will change a player’s value over the next two weeks are his health and price tag.

Still, the upcoming 16 days will hint at the long-term direction of the franchise, whether the club is willing to engage in a full rebuild or simply try to remain fringe-relevant in hopes of making a low-probability run at the postseason. It will only hint at the team’s blueprints for the future, though, as holding many of their most valuable trade chips does not necessarily indicate an unwillingness to sell. The winter’s trade market may prove more larger and more profitable for the Brewers, if they ultimately wait to shop guys like Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, and Jonathan Lucroy.

At the same time, I do think the upcoming trade season can serve as a barometer, on some level, of the team’s direction. Some rumblings about owner Mark Attanasio’s unwillingness to engage in a full tear-down of the club have bubbled to the surface over the last three months, and perhaps there is some truth in those rumors. I also believe that, as a businessman, Attanasio has legitimate qualms about an intensive rebuilding project in Milwaukee. Unfortunately, though, a quiet trade deadline doesn’t guarantee that the Brewers are unwilling to thoroughly rebuild the roster. The upcoming offseason will be the true litmus test.

Just don’t expect that latter fact to stop most people from panicking, if the team fails to make many moves before July 31.

(2) Will Taylor Jungmann continue to show a level of command that’s unprecedented in his career?

Through seven starts, Taylor Jungmann has won four decisions and posted a 2.15 ERA. His 2.45 DRA (Deserved Run Average) further indicates that his success is reflective of true talent, rather than a stretch of good luck. Watching a few of his starts — particularly his recent complete-game gem — it’s obvious that he’s on top of his game. He’s spinning the breaking ball better than he had in the minors and is relying on his sinker to generate a 55.5 percent ground-ball rate. Moreover, he’s pounding the strike zone better than ever before.

That has been central to my hesitation on Jungmann’s future role with the club and why I’m not ready to consider him as anything more than a potential fifth starter or swingman. It’s not a BABIP-based argument that cites his .252 BABIP and naively calls for that to regress to the mean, though that seems likely since he’s only had a BABIP under .300 once in his four minor-league seasons. Instead, I’m skeptical that Jungmann can continue to throw strikes at this high of rate.

In general, players do not suddenly perform at career-best levels after making the most difficult jump in professional baseball, from Triple-A to Major League Baseball. Jungmann has somehow altered his profile, from a ground-ball specialist who struggled to pound the zone to a ground-ball specialist who has a stellar walk rate.

It’s certainly something that could have happened. I mean, Dallas Keuchel had a career ERA over 5.00 before magically becoming a legitimate ace. But, again, it’s about probability. When projecting future performance, should we bank on Taylor Jungmann being an anomaly who suddenly (and unexpectedly) figured it out in the majors? There’s a small chance that’s the case. I’m just not ready to put my money on that.

(3) Can Jeremy Jeffress step up and claim the “closer of the future” title?

After getting shipped from Milwaukee to Kansas City to Toronto, former first-round pick Jeremy Jeffress has returned to the Brewers and has transformed himself into a quality reliever. That’s hardly the end-goal when drafting a prep right-hander with the 16th-overall pick, but a useful relief arm seems to be a desirable consolation prize for the organization.

Jeffress has compiled ERAs of 1.88 and 2.95 over the past two years with the Brewers, respectively, continuously gaining the trust of Ron Roenicke (then) and Craig Counsell (now). He has seen the most high-leverage appearances of any Brewers reliever, aside from K-Rod, and has the second-most shutdowns (13) on the club. Although Will Smith and Jonathan Broxton are the team’s co-called “set-up men,” the Brewers have actually employed Jeffress in key situations more often.

The 27-year-old’s emergence has wholly been tied to his improved control. Prior to his second stint with the Brewers, Jeffress had not posted a big-league walk rate below 4.35 BB/9 and was only two years removed from walking 8.78 batters per nine innings. With the Brewers, though, those walk rates have been nearly cut in half to 2.20 BB/9 and 3.18 BB/9, respectively. He features a heavy mid-90s fastball nearly 80 percent of time, so realistically, he mostly needs to fill up the zone with his two-seamer and get the opposing hitters to pound the ball on the ground — which can be seen by his 61.5 and 58.9 percent ground-ball rates over the last two years.

Another issue that plagued Jeffress early in his big-league career was an inability to throw his curveball for strikes, which allowed hitters to sit on the fastball. Even a mid- to high-90s fastball can be crushed if opposing batters know it’s coming. As a reference point, Jeffress had never thrown more than 31 percent of his curveballs for strikes. The past two years, that mark has increased to approximately 40 percent. That additional threat is one of the reasons why his swinging-strike rate on his curve has jumped to 18.1 percent. Hitters now must honor it as a legitimate offering, instead of not swinging whenever they recognized the “hump” and spin of the curve.

With relievers, though, it’s difficult to determine whether such improvements are sustainable or whether they’re just a small-sample illusion. The second half of the 2015 will go a long way towards solidifying the answer to that question.

(4) Is Ryan Braun back?

For all the post-PED handwringing that continues to surround Ryan Braun’s public perception, it’s possible that Braun has rebounded from suspension and injury to once again be one of the top offensive outfielders in Major League Baseball. His .835 OPS ranks 13th among all qualified outfielders, and that includes a dreadful start to the season in which he tried to break bad mechanical habits that he developed last year. If one looks at his last 66 games, Braun has compiled a .900 OPS with 11 stolen bases — an OPS that would rank sixth-best among all outfielders.

Ample statistical evidence illustrates Braun’s re-emergence at the plate. Firstly, the 31-year-old is squaring up the baseball with regularity and the power has returned. His average batted-ball velocity is 93.69 mph, which ranks third-best in all of baseball — behind only Giancarlo Stanton and Yoenis Cespedes, and just ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. His .220 ISO is far above the .143 league-average for all hitters and the .151 league-average for outfielders. In other words, the post-PED power-outage argument has a significant evidence problem.

Secondly, Braun has re-discovered his power stroke to left field.In June of last season, ESPN’s Buster Olney explained how opposite-field oriented Braun had become at the plate, even taking a non-subtle PED jab for good measure. His nerve injury in his hand made it difficult to keep his top hand on the bat, much less pull the baseball, so the six-time All-Star adjusted and began shooting the baseball to right field. That muscle memory carried over into spring training and April of 2015, as Braun continuously shot baseballs to the right-center and right fields.

That has changed in recent months. Since the beginning of May, Braun has begun to hit for power to all fields.

This hit chart won’t show a paucity of balls being hit to right field — Braun will always be willing to use right field regularly — but it does show a half-dozen homers to the pull side of center. It shows a half-dozen doubles to the pull side of center. At the risk of being too reductionist, it shows the Ryan Braun of old.

Finally, the Brewers’ right fielder has improved his contact rate and has improved his plate discipline. One of the biggest side effects of Braun’s nerve injury was the need to start his swing earlier to “cheat” against pitches in on his hands. That resulted in less time to identify spin, location and velocity, and as one would expect, that led to more swings at pitches outside the zone, fewer walks, and a higher swinging-strike rate.

Correcting bad habits takes time, but it appears that after a rough few weeks in April, Ryan Braun has returned to his career norms. His contact rate has normalized. His walk rate has jumped significantly since last year. And while he continues to swing at more pitches outside the zone than before, it’s lower than 2014 and is truthfully a function of today’s game. In 2009, for example, the average major-league hitter swung at 25.1 percent of pitches outside the zone. This year, the average is 31.0 percent. In that context, we should perhaps expect that Braun’s number should be higher than his career norm. What’s important, though, is that Braun is pairing it with an above-average contact rate.

As far as the rest of the season is concerned, Brewers fans could treat this argument in two ways. One could argue that the remainder of 2015 will (A) serve as Braun’s litmus test as to whether he’s truly “back,” in all the different ways that can be interpreted, or (B) be an opportunity to enjoy Braun’s return to form. After all, watching Ryan Braun at his offensive peak was aesthetically pleasing and should be going forward.

For me, I lean toward the latter, but while acknowledging that the former remains valid until Braun is able to extend his body of work into a more convincing sample size. A half-season doesn’t define a player, no matter how much it feels like it at the moment. Remember when Cesar Izturis made the All-Star Game in 2005 on the basis of two strong months?

(5) How will the starting pitching develop down on the farm?

Guys like Marcos Diplan, Jorge Lopez, and Tyler Wagner have all taken steps forward in 2015 and have garnered ample attention; however, the organization needs to develop more depth within the system. Relying on mid-rotation free agents has proven undesirable and, largely, not cost effective. Cultivating homegrown talent for the rotation should be one of the primary goals for the Milwaukee Brewers over the next few years.

Right-hander Devin Williams returned from injury a couple months ago and owns a 3.36 ERA for Class-A Wisconsin, but reports on his command have been rather poor — which is also reflected in his walk rate of 4.15 BB/9. He’s a guy who has begun to fly under-the-radar because the Brewers’ have handled him cautiously. Two years in rookie ball and this season in Class-A, the 20-year-old has only thrown 157.1 professional innings in three years. Still, he remains one of the most electric arms in the system.

Taylor Williams and Miguel Diaz finished the 2014 instructional season as two of the most-exciting pitching prospects in the Brewers organization. They have yet to take the mound in 2015. Williams has dealt with forearm tightness all year and suffered a setback earlier this summer, while Diaz has been on the 7-day DL for the past two months. Injuries happen — especially with pitchers — but their absence is obviously hindering their professional development, and if Taylor Williams ultimately needs Tommy John surgery, he’s looking at roughly two years of non-production and potentially not returning to game action until he’s 25 years old. In other words, he’d be a year younger than Tyler Thornburg at this point and would have never pitched above High-A. That’s a tough profile about which to get excited.

Finally, the Brewers need their 2015 draft class to sprint out of the starting gates. Right-hander Cody Ponce has dazzled with impressive performances in Helena and Class-A Wisconsin, but Nathan Kirby has yet to pitch a professional inning and Nash Walters has walked eight batters in 10.2 innings. While the best prospect in the draft class may be outfielder Trent Clark, the Milwaukee Brewers need their early pitching selections to establish themselves as legitimate prospects, which is a process that starts in earnest this summer.