Related Reading:
3 Up 3 Down: May
3 Up 3 Down: April
2016 Series

With this in mind, myself and Assistant Editor Kyle Lesniewski, with help from Baseball Prospectus prospect gurus Craig Goldstein and John Eshleman, have assembled a midseason deluxe edition of “3 Up, 3 Down.” Consider this an entry in lieu of a midseason Top 30 ranking. Ranking prospects at this point is definitely in demand from many fans, but I’d like to offer this type of content in lieu of a ranking. This editorial decision is justifiable with a system such as Milwaukee’s, I believe, especially because the very top prospects are graduating (meaning, say, RHP Luis Ortiz and 2B Isan Diaz are perhaps most likely to take the top spots in the organization), but also because talent is bunched together at so many points.

If the Brewers control approximately 200 professionals within their affiliated system, a Top 30 list comprises the top 15 percent of the system. With that in mind, it’s worth emphasizing that such a list can only ever split hairs over the most elite talent within the system. Outside of the true top talent role projections (such as Ortiz and Diaz, for example, the One Percenters of the system), there are more question marks and more risk that define ranges of talent between #3-to-#10 (next 4 percent), and then organizational depth roles that define #11-20 (rounding out the top 10 percent). Consider previous Top Ten residents like Nottingham or Monte Harrison; are these players headed back to the Top 10 give Nottingham’s bat rounding out and likelihood to stick behind the dish? Or Harrison’s resolution of tools into a ballplayer? Where do you put Top 10 newcomers like Feliciano and Burnes? What about Jake Gatewood? To this, one might be able to debate about each player’s top MLB potential and likely MLB floor role (or organizational depth role), but to that point it is also worth asking whether it matters that Feliciano slots in at, say, #6 instead of #15, or Burnes at #9 instead of #14. So, consider this feature an exercise in thinking through layers of quality depth that define a system that is going to be quite volatile after Brinson and Hader are gone (and probably with them, too), but a strong system nonetheless.

3 UP
UTIL Jake Gatewood, Advanced A Carolina (picked by John Eshleman): Following BPMilwaukee’s list last year, Jake Gatewood is quite a regular face in the midseason 3 Up, 3 Down, but that’s simply a reflection of the stages of this prospect’s progression. James Fisher scouted Gatewood at A Wisconsin in spring 2016, noting that “much of his improvement has come this year from an adjustment in his starting position. He has lowered his hands slightly and that has led to a much shorter and direct path to the ball. While his plate discipline is still suspect, he has been making harder and more consistent contact.” This observation accompanied the pick of Gatewood as a power prospect to watch, especially after a surge in Rookie Helena to close 2015. Following Fisher’s observation, Gatewood made another set of adjustments over the 2016-2017 offseason and has been one of the great surprises of the 2017 season.

John Eshleman writes, “his power has already been widely acknowledged, but this year he is less vulnerable to spin and pitches out of the zone. [This] not only shows up in his walk rate but also puts him in more hitters counts to tap that power.” Adjustments breeding adjustments, and another question mark answered; in this placement it almost appears that Fisher raised the question of Gatewood’s discipline for Eshleman to answer it this year. So here Gatewood stands, now receiving plenty of time at 1B, carving himself a nice role as a Brewers corner prospect while exposing the irony of prospect hype: it seems absurd to call this age-21 player “post hype” in 2017, but I’m also not sure Gatewood is a sleeper any longer. Look for these adjustments to round out an upper minors organizational ceiling into something that may be better suited to crack the big league roster (and goodness knows David Stearns is eyeing that SS / 3B / LF / 1B positional pedigree). Power and flexibility should hopefully keep Gatewood on close watch in this system.

1B Garrett Cooper, AAA Colorado Springs (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): The Milwaukee Brewers have one of the best farm systems in baseball, littered with top-100 prospects like Lewis Brinson, Corey Ray, and Isan Diaz. But who has the best OPS of anyone in Milwaukee’s system currently? None other than the org’s 2013 6th-round pick, Garrett Cooper. The hulking product of Auburn University has displayed a penchant for contact throughout his minor league career, but has never really displayed the power that one typically likes to see from a player that primarily mans first base. That is, until now. After popping what was a career-high 9 home runs in 128 games last season between Class-AA and Class-AAA, Cooper has already blasted 14 long balls in just 64 games this season. A career .303/.366/.463 hitter in five seasons, Cooper has tattooed Pacific Coast League pitching to the tune of a .357/.412/.614 slash this season, with his .257 ISO nearly 100 points better than his career average (though it’s worth noting his home OPS at Colorado Springs of 1.258 is much higher than his .805 OPS on the road). A toned-down leg kick appears to have helped the 26 year old right-handed hitter tap more consistently into the power than a man standing at 6’6″ and 230 lbs should be able to generate. Unfortunately for Garrett, he is currently blocked at the big league level by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Cooper was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft after being left unprotected last season but given his improved level of production this year, it’s easy to imagine someone taking a shot on him if he’s left off the 40-man roster once again this winter.

2B Keston Hiura, Rookie Arizona (picked by Nicholas Zettel): In one sense, it’s absurd to place Hiura on this list. Hiura is not on this list because of his hitting surge in Rookie ball, where the age-20 Hiura is already old. Rather, even though some scouting outlets disagreed on the strength of Hiura’s bat (without disagreeing that the bat is the calling card for the advanced college prospect), the major question marks for Hiura revolved around both his defense and his injured elbow. The Brewers beat has reported that Hiura is working at Arizona on a throwing program before playing in the field, so the jury is out on that fielding grade for the prospect. A 2B-profile without an average glove but a great hit tool make Hiura look like a rich man’s Scooter Gennett (a good thing, if perhaps a floor). However, upon being drafted, the Brewers learned that Hiura does not require surgery for his elbow injury, which adds quite a bit of immediate certainty to the prospect profile (and no, I don’t buy that the line that “recovering from Tommy John surgery is easier for position players” reduces the uncertainty involved in rehabbing a prospect from surgery). Thus, the Brewers have their top draft pick on a throwing program rather than a surgery rehab program, and this (to my mind) allows Hiura’s top ceiling to tick slightly less risky.

3 DOWN
C Andrew Susac, AAA Colorado Springs (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Though no longer technically a prospect (he’s taken 262 turns at the plate in the MLB), plenty of folks around Milwaukee hoped that Susac could become a multiyear starter for the Brewers behind the plate after he was acquired in the Will Smith trade from San Francisco last year. An injury during spring training this year helped cost him a spot on the Opening Day roster and delayed the start of his regular season by a few weeks, but since returning to action in mid-April the former top-100 prospect has struggled to get much of anything going at the plate. He’s split time with Tyler Heineman (and now Jett Bandy) and has appeared in just 32 games so far; in that time Susac has been able to manage only a .194/.250/.407 slash with five home runs in the hitter-friendly confines of Security Service Field. He has thrown out seven of the 17 runners that have tried to steal on him, but his framing numbers and all-around fielding metrics have taken a step back this year. Susac now appears at the very least to be behind Manny Pina, Stephen Vogt, and Bandy on the organizational catching depth chart, and with Jacob Nottingham coming on strong just one level behind, the age-27 catcher needs to start figuring things out before he gets lost in the shuffle once again.

IF Gilbert Lara, A Wisconsin (picked by Craig Goldstein): As the Brewers are reportedly linked to a few top International Prospects according to BaseballAmerica, one ought use the Gilbert Lara signing as a cautionary tale of sorts, but one should not use Lara’s struggles as an argument against investing in international talent for Milwaukee. The shortstop-to-third baseman has had his trip off shortstop delayed in 2017, which does raise a question about whether Lara’s defensive requirements at a position he is not suited for is impacting his performance thus far.

Goldstein on Lara: He’s only 19, but he hasn’t looked right for a couple years and I think it’s time to move on unless something changes in dramatic fashion. Oh, and he’s definitely not a shortstop.

RHP Cody Ponce, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Nicholas Zettel): Cody Ponce is one of my favorite arms in the Brewers system, so my placing him here is not really an indictment against his ceiling and floor that appeared on the 2017 Brewers Top Ten at Baseball Prospectus. Rather, it’s worth reflecting on my own biases that found Ponce to be placed in the “Potential Quick Riser” bucket I keep in my mind, as there was so much to instantly love about Ponce’s arsenal straight out of the gate. Ponce seemed like a guy who had stuff to reach the MLB as an almost certainly serviceable reliever, and I thought that floor would help him push his way to the MLB. As of this writing, Ponce is now 152.3 combined innings deep in Advanced A between 2016 and 2017, which leads one to question whether the righty’s injury during 2016 pushed back his development clock somewhat. Scouting the box score, Baseball Prospectus notes that Ponce’s groundball rate is falling as his strike out rate also declines in 2017, although it is worth noting that the Carolina League has generally been tough on Brewers prospects in 2017. Skipped over by Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta in terms of promotions to Class-AA Biloxi, one cannot let their previous expectations turn to disappointment on the age-23 hurler. Indeed, this is a great lesson that undue expectations are the foundation of hype, and hype does not develop prospects into serviceable MLB players.

Midseason 2016 #1
Midseason 2016 #2
Midseason 2016 #3

Three Up

CF Lewis Brinson, Class-AAA Colorado Springs
With Keon Broxton struggling at the big league level, the clamoring has already begun for Milwaukee’s #1 prospect to make his debut at Miller Park. Brinson’s blistering start for the Sky Sox has only made the cries louder. He missed a few games after jamming a finger sliding into second base, but the center fielder is batting .355/.412/.649 with two home runs and three doubles in 34 plate appearances for a ridiculous .371 TAv. Unless Broxton starts to figure things out at the plate in short order, expect to see Brinson up sometime around the end of May or beginning of June. From BP’s Steve Givarz:

“We’ve talked a lot about Brinson, and rightfully so. He has tools and impact potential in center field, plus he has also cut down on his strikeouts. All of this could force Milwaukee’s hand sooner rather than later.”

C Mario Feliciano, Class-A Wisconsin
The Brewers picked Feliciano as a 17-year old prep player in the Competitive Balance Round B of last summer’s draft. The young backstop had an unimpressive debut statistically in the Arizona League, but Milwaukee’s front office saw enough to give him an aggressive assignment all the way to full-season ball to start the 2017 season. Feliciano has responded by pounding the ball to the tune of a .378/.425/.622 slash with a homer, a triple, and four doubles in 40 plate appearances for a .385 TAv. There’s work to be done defensively, as there usually is with high school catchers, but the bat might be able to play at other positions if a move out from behind the plate is needed. From BP’s Steve Givarz:

“Taken in the Competitive Balance “B” Round in 2016, Feliciano has been one of the hottest hitters in the Midwest League thus far. He offers power, bat speed, and feel to hit at the plate with an advanced approach. He’s athletic behind the plate—enough so that he could handle being moved off catcher—but is a project defensively. His receiving is raw and his transfers can be sloppy, but the bat looks pretty special.”

IF Jake Gatewood, Class-Advanced A Carolina
The Brewers signed Gatewood to an overslot deal after picking him 41st overall in 2014, hoping that his hitting skills would develop to match his plus raw power. It’s taken a few years, but it appears the 21 year old might finally be coming around. After hitting .240/.268/.391 with 14 home runs and 18 walks in 126 games at Wisconsin last year, Gatewood revamped his stance and approach at the plate. From last season:

And now in 2017:

Jake Gatewood base hit with new & improved stance. #Mudcats pic.twitter.com/rLOo0ABEOQ

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) April 14, 2017

Gatewood is now more crouched at the plate and has lowered his hand positioning pretty significantly, and the early results are extremely encouraging. Through 50 plate appearances, Gatewood is slashing .310/.420/.476 with a home run, four doubles, and perhaps most importantly, eight base on balls. Lucas Erceg’s presence in Zebulon has pushed Gatewood mostly to first base, but he retains a solid corner utility profile overall defensively. If he can sustain the improvements in his approach, Gatewood may finally be on his way to fulfilling the tremendous potential scouts placed on him when he was drafted.

Three Down

SS Gilbert Lara, Class-A Wisconsin
Three years after signing for a $3.2 mil bonus, Gilbert Lara still has yet to look like much more than a cautionary tale for handing out big checks to 16 year olds. Lara managed only a .220 TAv last season in Helena, but the Brewers still advanced him to full season ball in Wisconsin to start 2017. Thus far in 33 plate appearances, he’s batting an anemic .125/.152/.250 with a single long ball. He’s struck out 11 times versus drawing just one walk. Lara’s calling card when he was signed was his incredible power potential, but scouts have panned both his approach and swing mechanics, which haven’t allowed Lara to tap into the power with any sort of regularity. Once considered one of Milwaukee’s top prospects, Lara looks to be little more than a wild card at this point. At just 19 years old, however, time is still very much on Lara’s side.

Gilbert Lara is hitting .125/.152/.250 (and not starting every game), if you're wondering if his swing or plate discipline have improved.

— J.P. Breen (@JP_Breen) April 20, 2017

OF Trent Clark, Class-Advanced A Carolina
Clark was Milwaukee’s first round pick back in 2015 and has dealt with some unfortunate injuries that have robbed him of critical development time during his first two years as a professional. Healthy coming into this season, he was assigned to Carolina to be featured as a part of the Mudcats’ loaded roster. Clark’s hit tool was considered to be very advanced when he was drafted, but thus far the lefty-swinger is batting just .200/.348/.343 with a 32 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances in 2017. That, after posting a .231 average and 26 percent punchout rate in 59 games at low-A Wisconsin last year. Clark has middling power and his lackluster arm will likely push him to left field if he can’t stick in center, so the fact that his purported carrying tool has yet to really show through as a professional is no doubt discouraging. With so many other talented outfielders in the system, Clark may soon get lost in the shuffle. From Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser:

“Clark let multiple balls drop playing both right field and center field, earning derision from scouts in attendance who criticized his motor and effort.”

OF Clint Coulter, Class-AA Biloxi
One of Milwaukee’s two first-rounders in 2012 (along with Victor Roache), it looked like the club might have had something special in Coulter after he captured the org’s Minor League Player of the Year award in 2014. Things haven’t worked out that way in the few years since then, however. Coulter was forced to move off of catcher to right field and struggled offensively in the harsh environs of the Florida State League for 2015 and most of 2016, though a .306 TAv in 102 late-season plate appearances for Biloxi last year offered a glimmer of hope. That success hasn’t carried over into 2017, however, as Coulter is off to a .169/.219/.200 start with seven strikeouts and one walk through his first 32 plate appearances. Coulter lacks a good feel for hitting and can struggle to recognize breaking stuff, which will allow more advanced pitchers to continue to exploit him. Combine that with reportedly below-average defense in the outfield and you have the makings of a first-round bust.

Additional Contributors:
Noah Nofz
Sean Roberts

With the season opening for Milwaukee’s full season affiliates (Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Class-Advacned A Carolina Mudcats, Class-AA Biloxi Shuckers, and Class-AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox), here is how the system’s Baseball Prospectus Top 10 and “just interesting” guys will be distributed throughout the organization:

Each affiliate except the Colorado Springs club is beginning the season on the road:

Given the fact that the Brewers are rebuilding the MLB roster without necessarily fielding a club expected to be competitive, fans are understandably excited about the assemblage of talent in places like Colorado Springs and Carolina. But there is so much depth in the system that major stories could also emerge from Biloxi and Wisconsin. So, here is a look at a trio of storylines that BPMilwaukee contributors are interested in (myself, Noah Nofz, and Sean Roberts).

Low-A Battery (Noah Nofz)
Like a lot of us, I’ll be watching this year’s Brewers minor league affiliates like a hawk. Intrigue abounds at every level. Setting aside the obvious prospect glut at Class-AAA Colorado and Class-Advanced A Carolina, one particular tandem stands out: Right-handed pitcher Luke Barker and budding catcher Mario Feliciano of the low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers.

Barker and Feliciano form a fascinating battery. They are a symphony in contrast. Barker, 6’3”, is a 25-year-old hurler who went undrafted out of Chico State despite glittering numbers and a prototypical pitcher’s build. He spent last year with the Traverse City Beach Bums of the independent Frontier League, where he posted a 1.44 ERA and struck out 83 batters over 62.3 innings while only walking ten.

Feliciano, 18, was an early-round draft pick out of high school just last year. His aggressive assignment to full-season ball speaks volumes about the organization’s enthusiasm – and may have contributed to their decision to push another young backstop, Cooper Hummel, from the Pioneer League all the way to High-A Carolina.

They’re blazing entirely different trails, but tracking Barker and Feliciano as they push towards Milwaukee should provide plenty of thrills for Appleton fans.

The Exciting Gilbert Lara (Sean Roberts)
Over 246 plate appearances at rookie league Helena last year, Gilbert Lara slashed just .250/.293/.320 with two home runs, resulting in a TAv of .220. There’s nothing that really stands out in his statistical profile, except maybe the most important number for a prospect- his age. He’ll only be 19 this season, after the Brewers signed him as a 16-year old in 2014. While consistency has eluded him, he flashes tools once in a while that provide insight into Brewer scouts’ $3 million investment in him.

Scouts haven’t been crazy about his defensive ceiling either, suggesting he may be moved off of shortstop sooner rather than later, though he did post 5 FRAA this past season. So while there isn’t a lot to get excited about yet, a big 19-year old shortstop that has real power is something that Brewer fans shouldn’t dismiss as the rest of the farm system has drastically improved around Lara. While it would be foolish to predict a breakout anytime soon, he’s still one of the most intriguing prospects in the system that I’ll have my eye on and am fascinated to see if he can develop and fulfill more of that potential in 2017.

Sneaky Shuckers (Nicholas Zettel)
In terms of expected impact talent, Brewers fans are most thrilled about the collection of well-publicized prospects opening the season in Carolina and Colorado Springs. Yet, the Biloxi Shuckers, the locale of the system’s (arguable) first large step forward in 2015, host a set of intriguing MLB depth for the 2017 season. Fans probably do not read prospect coverage to be reminded that all the big names will not work out in Milwaukee, but that also should not preclude coverage of solid depth options that could expand the Brewers’ replacement options or even provide some out-of-nowhere stars.

In 2017, both members of the Khris Davis trade return open the season in Biloxi. This is a great chance for both Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby to advance their respective careers, and it is a testing ground of one of the more questionable rebuilding trades thus far (after 2016). Nottingham is the better-known prospect among this duo, as the catcher was highly renowned within the Oaklad Athletics system before hitting a slight roadbump as a supremely young catcher entering Class-AA for 2016. The catcher with raw power and a chance to stick behind the plate gets his second go at Biloxi, where he will hopefully feel less pressure to impress this season.

Meanwhile, the peripheral statistics show that Bubba Derby struggled during an arguably aggressive assignment to Class-Advanced A Brevard County last season, but the aggressive assignments continue as Derby will have to improve upon a 4.68 DRA, 45 percent groundball rate, and home run rate in the upper minors. Baseball Prospectus scout Steve Givarz graded Derby’s fastball and change up as potential 55 Overall Future Potential pitches in August, giving Brewers fans something to dream on for the depth righty to emerge as a potential relief pitcher in Milwaukee.

If you are inclined to be excited by the Carolina Mudcats infield of Jake Gatewood, Isan Diaz, Lucas Erceg, Luis Aviles, Weston Wilson and Wendell Rijo, I counter with the Biloxi set of Art Charles and Dustin DeMuth, Javier Betancourt and Blake Allemand, and Mauricio Dubon, George Iskenderian, and Angel Ortega. There’s no one among this set that has Diaz’s ceiling or Erceg’s fast-rising hype, but there are some solid tools that could find their way to Milwaukee to bolster a flexible MLB infield that could use more depth throughout the season. Dubon has a modest 45-50 profile that also does not seem to be particularly risky, and will have to prove in Biloxi’s environment whether his power gains that surfaced in 2016 are sustainable. Javier Betancourt has a glove-first approach at second base, which is a position that now has less depth between Milwaukee and Biloxi. Trent Clark and Nathan Kirby might get the most press from the 2015 draft, but this Shuckers infield also includes potential members of that draft that could graduate into depth roles (Iskenderian and Allemand might fight RHP Jon Perrin to be the first 2015 Brewers draftee to reach the MLB).

Anyway, don’t buy into the hype: or rather, don’t buy fully into the hype without considering the depth. As demonstrated above in Wisconsin, there is some talent in the Class-A club that could help define the identity of the system in coming years. In Biloxi, the prospect hype is considerably less shiny, but the roles are nevertheless important for establishing the staying power of Milwaukee’s rebuild. Don’t sleep on the Shuckers. It cannot be emphasized enough that the future success of the Brewers will depend on the depth of the system as much as star potential at the top.

From MLB GameDay:

Making the rounds of Brewers Twitter this morning is a beautiful shot of Diaz’s 70-potential fastball playing out on the big stage, for the righty’s first MLB strikeout. For many of us, we rely faithfully on scouting reports and good grains of salt to understand the strengths and weaknesses of prospects without much video evidence (for those of us that do not subscribe to Minor League TV, that is). So, this morning served as a wonderful visual introduction to that sharp moving fastball.

That fastball…is better than the one I had in mind while reading 70-potential scouting reports. Of course, while reading those reports, I was also fixated on the potential 60 slider and 55 change up that accompanied the big pitch, designating Diaz as one of the Brewers’ very best right-handed prospects, at least in terms of potential three-pitch mix. The rub with Diaz was always the risk factor, which usually played much, much louder than the Overall Future Potential for the righty; it was always downgraded, that Diaz was quite a risky bet to reach the MLB as a starter. Entering 2015 as one of Milwaukee’s top prospects, Baseball Prospectus noted that a 2019 ETA might be expected for the righty:

“After tantalizing evaluators throughout the summer, Diaz stood out during fall instructs thanks in large part to a more consistent breaking ball, including a short slider/cutter variation that added another look and could provide a solid weapon for missing left-handed barrels if the changeup does not fully materialize. Because he gets such good extension on his offerings, the ball gets in on hitters quickly, allowing the pitch to play above its plus velocity grade. That has the duel benefit of helping the fastball to jump and making identification of the cutter more problematic. As with Medeiros, there’s so much distance between present profile and the ultimate skill set required to hold down a spot in a major-league rotation that the Brewers will likely take things slowly with Diaz in 2015, with a focus on continuing to build up arm strength and durability while refining the secondaries. A Helena assignment seems most likely, and would put him in line for a full-season debut in 2016 at the age of 21.”

In the middle of 2016, Grant Jones published a Baseball Prospectus eyewitness report that corroborated the risky story for Diaz while underscoring the lofty potential of the arsenal. Jones wrote, “Upside of good number three pitcher; risk factor makes power reliever very possible. Ability to throw all three for strikes, confident with all pitches, needs more reps with repeating delivery and will be a starter if he can find more consistency. High-upside arm, risk factor is very high but stuff is there. Has the makings for everything to come together soon.”

Diaz played 2016 at Class-A Wisconsin, nearly reaching 100 innings and posting a 3.14 Deserved Runs Average (DRA), a monstrous 91 strike out / 29 walk ratio, and an improved groundball ratio (from 38 percent at Class-R Arizona to 47 percent in full season ball). For all intents and purposes, this appeared to be a smashing success, although analysts must weigh Diaz’s weak competition against his extremely young age for his level. This was the type of season that could sell a risky starting pitching prospect, and unfortunately the Brewers could not take their time to decide on the merits of Diaz; having begun his professional career in 2012, he was ready for the 40-Man Roster, or risked exposure in the Rule 5 Draft. Usually, one would not blink twice at the thought of losing a low ball pitcher in the Rule 5 draft, but in fact this has happened (at least) twice over the last few seasons, including the Brewers’ own experiment with Wei-Chung Wang and the Padres’ selection of Luis Perdomo.

Rereading Diaz’s scouting reports, and viewing his stuff, it is worth asking whether reports had the risk profile backwards for Diaz. Perhaps the MLB relief floor was there, even in Class-A, what with a present-grade 60 fastball and 45 slider (how many current Brewers relievers can boast that combination of grades?). Traditionally, it is easy to simply scoff at the notion that Diaz would have been a potential relief prospect, because the traditional notion remains that you develop players as starting pitchers until they absolutely prove themselves to be relievers. Traditionally, it is easy to dismiss the notion of a Class-A player being anywhere near the MLB; that’s at least three levels and therefore three years away from the big stage, especially if a player’s profile is risky starting pitcher. The trouble is, if a player is not a risky starting pitcher but a potentially solid relief profile, that timetable stands on its head.

The problem with this line of reasoning, of course, is that fans are always ready to push players along as quickly as possible. When the Brewers signed Gilbert Lara, the question was whether Lara could be a type of breakout phenom that makes the MLB for his age-20 season, a la Miguel Cabrera. When the Brewers drafted Cody Ponce, looking at the righty’s frame and arsenal, it was interesting to question whether Ponce could become the next Michael Conforto, a relatively polished prospect that can leap from Class-A to the MLB during the same season (as Conforto did in 2015). These dreams are muted by reality, obviously. But they persist: fans still ask the same type of question about Brewers prospect Corey Ray: can’t you see Ray in Brewers blue in 2018?

Yet, MLB scouting, player development, and analytical teams must take the risk profiles and potential futures of each player quite seriously, and in this case the fact that the Brewers misjudged Diaz’s profile raises questions about how the organization should handle future low ball Rule 5 draft risks. Losing Miguel Diaz is not “nothing,” as there are few 70-potential fastballs lying around the minor leagues, even if those fastballs might be tied to a risky starting pitching profile. Indeed, on the OFP scale that historically grants Diaz $48.9 million in surplus value to the Brewers at his highest pure grade, it is so easy to imagine a future in which the Brewers develop Diaz as a starting pitcher and he never reaches the MLB ($0 surplus). Watering down Diaz’s grade with a host of 40-45-50-55-60 OFP futures gives a much more reasonable estimate of the righty’s surplus value in Milwaukee. But if one asks whether Diaz is a reliever all along, Class-A is much closer to the MLB, and Diaz certainly justifies a 40-man roster spot in that case. “Power reliever” is an essential role for a potentially contending club in 2019 or 2020, and unleashing Diaz as a reliever probably materializes his MLB career in a much easier (less risky) manner than as starting pitching.

So, here lies a logical, analytical player development problem for the Brewers: if they are risk averse with their 40-man roster spots, they must not ask, “what is this player’s ceiling?” but “what is this player’s floor?” When a floor could be as strong as that of Diaz, who was working with a 60 / 45 two pitch mix as early as midseason 2016, Milwaukee must reassess the value of that profile for their roster. Odds are the Brewers did not lose a risky starter that was very far from the MLB, but a relatively stable relief profile that was much closer to the MLB, and it is worth asking whether that profile is worth losing again in the future.

Related Reading:
3 Up 3 Down: Gatewood / Nottingham / Phillips

Key Promotions
Recently, some of the most intriguing arms in the Brewers system received promotions.

RHP Marcos Diplan has been transferred to Brevard Cty. RHP Kaleb Earls has been placed on the DL. RHP Trey Supak transferred to Wisconsin

— Brewers Player Dev (@BrewersPD) July 10, 2016

#Brewers have promoted RHP Angel Ventura to @BiloxiShuckers and RHP Freddy Peralta to @BCManatees.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 9, 2016

This year’s A Wisconsin affiliate has simply been stacked with arms, so much so that one might have forgotten about Marcos Diplan. Within the system, Miguel Diaz and Jon Perrin stormed the stage (although these RHP are both interesting for different reasons) as homegrown arms, and Freddy Peralta (also in Brevard County now) stepped forward to put a face with those names returned in the Adam Lind trade. So, Diplan stood as one of the earliest “rebuilding” trade returns in Milwaukee’s system, but the teenager struck out 89 of 295 batters faced. Questions about Diplan’s size and secondary stuff at times lead one to expect a bullpen profile for the righty, but those huge strike out profiles make even that outcome appear more exciting.

Trey Supak was something of a lottery ticket return as a part of the Jason Rogers trade, even if he ultimately has a frame and some tools worth projecting. Recovering from a previous injury, Supak faced a potentially brief 2016 campaign, but the righty has impressed by making quick work of R Helena: an 11 strikeout / 1 walk campaign preceded Supak’s promotion to Wisconsin, where the 20 year old will look to prove himself against older, full season talent. While Diplan and Supak have completely different frames, development patterns, and injury histories, it’s somewhat tempting to place Supak’s risk category in the same realm as Diplan: you’ve got to dream on the tools as a starter, but there’s still a lot to like even in a relief profile.

In the season of Junior Guerra’s stunning MLB success, non-linear developmental patterns should become an area of further analysis. While Angel Ventura’s path has not meandered in the same way that Guerra’s did, the righty spent three seasons in the Brewers Dominican Summer League before coming to the United States. It’s easy to dismiss Ventura as an “old” prospect in some sense, then, but the righty has consistently posted solid strike out rates in both A Wisconsin and A+ Brevard County. Now, while he’s working in AA Biloxi, the 6’2″ prospect continues to serve as underrated organizational depth, this time only a couple of steps away from the MLB. While all eyes are rightfully on Orlando Arcia to officially judge the retooled Milwaukee International system a success, Ventura could also serve as a success story and a lesson about patience in player development.

Three Up
Jon Perrin, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): While Brewers fans might rightfully focus on the aggressive assignment for RHP Cody Ponce out of the 2015 draft, his 27th round counterpart Jon Perrin has forced his way to the same level in 2016. Kyle Lesniewski previously featured Perrin at BPMilwaukee, tempering expectations from his A Wisconsin dominance by noting the righty’s age and rotational profile. Now, with eleven games under his belt in Brevard County, the extreme strike out / walk profile looks good (19 percent / five percent). While it’s tough to lay off of the Mike Fiers comparisons given Perrin’s size, depth status, and draft profile, one must watch the righty’s flyball rate, as that may be the most important comparison and aspect of Perrin’s game to define his advancement.

Franly Mallen, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): Before there was Gilbert Lara, Milwaukee’s big International smash, there was Franly Mallen, a much less hyped but arguably as interesting prospect for the Brewers system. When Mallen was signed, reports did not necessarily highlight a standout tool, although some scouts reportedly looked for projectable power. Last year was arguably a type of breakout for Mallen, in the sense that he received one of the most aggressive promotions out of the Dominican Summer League from the Brewers front office. Mallen has done nothing but rake in Helena, boasting TAv of .366 and .311 (at age 19, now, no less). The youngster is already off of shortstop, which could speak more to the jampacked shortstop position in the system than Mallen’s glove, but it remains to be seen if this move is permanent. Even so fans can salivate at the Javier Betancourt / Wendell Rijo / Isan Diaz / Franly Mallen potential pipeline at second base, if that move is permanent.

Nate Orf, AAA Colorado Springs (James Fisher): At every turn, when the Brewers system improved in 2015, most of the hype went to players like Orlando Arcia and Jorge Lopez. But Nate Orf, an undrafted free agent signed by the Brewers in 2013, also carried his production to AA Biloxi last year, earning a spot in the Arizona Fall League. James Fisher called Orf a “utility guy that can really hit.  Under the radar guy that will be a big leaguer, [and] deserves some recognition.” True to form, Orf is posting a .294 TAv while playing second base, third base, and shortstop in Colorado Springs. Should the Brewers make as many trades as one might expect during the deadline crunch, fans and analysts should look out for the 26 year old Orf in Brewers blue, solidifying the multifaceted infielder as a true Bruce Seid era success story.

Three Down
Gilbert Lara, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): It seems roundly unfair to place Lara in this category (if anything, it’s an argument against prospect bonus hype): the 18 year old only has instructional ball and 344 plate appearances in the USA as his professional experience, and has a long way to go to reach his toolsy projections. BaseballProspectus ranked Lara fifth in the Brewers system due to his immense talent, with power being the calling card here. Those tools simply have not shown up in games yet, as Lara works to define his plate discipline and approach.

Wei-Chung Wang, AA Biloxi (James Fisher): Don’t look now, but just as soon as we brainstormed this feature, Wei-Chung Wang looks to be on another second half surge. James noted that Wang’s stuff is backing up, and also noted that the strike out / walk profile is not ideal. Once again, Wang has his work cut out for him, as the southpaw will arguably need to stabilize his up-again, down-again organizational status as he tries to convince the Milwaukee front office to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this autumn.

Clint Coulter, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): Last year, some fans and analysts clamored about the placement of Coulter within year-end prospect lists, as the catcher-turned-right fielder’s stock fell. The rough times in Brevard County continued in 2016. This time around, one might point to Coulter’s notably below average competition (.673 opposing OPS, placing Coulter’s competition ahead of only 25% of Florida Southern regulars) and age as additional question marks for the prospect. The silver lining is that Coulter’s bat improved in June and is currently solidly hot in July (.311 AVG with five extra base hits in 50 PA), so hopefully Coulter has a redemption storyline on target.

Of course, Melvin didn’t always struggle in this facet of management. The first five years of his tenure (2003-2007) saw the Brewers draft Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy, among others. Those players combined with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall — whom the team had selected in the pre-Melvin seasons — to form a strong nucleus that helped the club make playoff runs in 2008 and 2011.

After that, however, the prospect well dried up — such that, for five years running, the Brewers have placed in the bottom five of BP’s organizational rankings:

[Note: These rankings began in 2008.]

With the aforementioned core heading to the Major Leagues, Milwaukee sorely needed to replenish its system. Melvin responded with the opposite due to the club’s competitive window. In deals for CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum, he sent away Matt LaPorta, Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffess, and Brett Lawrie. Some of those players didn’t end up accomplishing much, but the prosperity of some of them — particularly Brantley and Cain, each of whom has played at a borderline-MVP level in the past couple years — have made many fans regret the trades retrospectively.

Inadequate drafting compounded the woes of those deals. Jack noted in his piece that the club’s picks from later years haven’t yet amounted to much. Over the past few years, teams such as the Rangers have managed to maintain a solid minor-league system despite swinging big trades, and they’ve done so by constantly restocking their affiliates through the draft and international free agency. Part of that is good scouting, too, while part of that is a willingness to spend money. Melvin’s Brewers partook in the former half of the equation while neglecting the latter half, though, and it has come back to haunt them.

With that said, Milwaukee has made recent strides. BP’s writeup of the farm system stated that it possessed “talent to makes several teams quite jealous” — a massive improvement from its standing over the past several seasons. After spending the first half of the decade in the minor-league cellar, the 2015 Brewers have taken the necessary steps to move back up to the top half.

Part of this, in fairness, happened before this year. In August, Julien Assouline analyzed the team’s drafts under Melvin, who had perhaps not received the credit he deserved. Some of Melvin’s strengths there stem from the early years, but even in the later part of his run with the Brewers, they fared moderately well. Derek Harvey commented that the club’s drafts from 2009 to 2014, under late scouting director Bruce Seid, provided them with numerous quality players that presently stock their system. Indeed, of the top-20 current Milwaukee prospects, eight — Jorge Lopez, Devin Williams, Monte Harrison, Tyrone Taylor, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeiros, Yadiel Rivera, and Michael Reed — came from drafts during that span, while Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara signed with the team as amateur free agents in that period.

Still, an improvement of this magnitude, and in this short a span, suggests something different in the past twelve months. Part of the difference stems from the 2015 draft, which has (to this point) yielded incredible rewards. Four of those top-20 prospects came to the team in June: Trent Clark, Cody Ponce, Demi Orimoloye, and Nathan Kirby. Clark stands out as the best of the bunch, but all four have intriguing upside and could continue to blossom further. New scouting director Ray Montgomery, as Harvey observed, seems to have taken off.

The team’s decision to finally rebuild has helped with that. July saw them deal away established starters Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, and Jonathan Broxton, as well as (relative) stars Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. Those trades — which, as J.P. Breen correctly posited, meant the team had recognized that its window has closed — brought back a great deal of prospects. Yhonathan Barrios, Zach Davies, Malik Collymore, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser now occupy various levels of the Milwaukee system; Phillips, Davies, Houser, and Hader ranked in the top 20, while Santana has already begun to contribute at The Show. Together with Marcos Diplan, an intriguing top-20 farmhand whom the team acquired in last January’s Yovani Gallardo swap, they amount to a formidable group.

Overall, David Stearns inherited a solid amount of prospects when he became the GM in August. Surveying the trove a couple weeks before Melvin stepped down, Derek Harvey concluded that the system had gone from the bottom to the upper half of the league — a prediction that, as stated previously, we’ve likely seen come true. Stearns didn’t stop there, though. In his four-odd months atop the organization, he’s made several trades to bolster the minor- and major-league depth, further improving the system as a whole.

The first two transactions came in mid-November. Stearns swapped Cy Sneed for the Astros’ Jonathan Villar, then followed that up by shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers in exchange for Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). Seth Victor described Villar at the time as “a good acquisition for a team that needs middle infield depth and flexibility,” a player who won’t make a noticeable difference yet should still provide some value. Betancourt — who rounded out the top 20 — is, in Chris Crawford’s estimation, “a high-floor prospect with a fairly well-defined ceiling.” In other words, he could become a Villar-type player a few years down the road.

After BP published its top-20 list, Stearns has made a few more moves, evidently in an effort to muck up the rankings. First came the Adam Lind trade, which brought back three young pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta. While I can certainly see the logic in Jack’s distaste for the deal — Lind gave us something to cheer for in this dreadful 2015 season, and those players always hurt to lose — I ultimately come down on the side of J.P., who expressed cautious optimism regarding it.

Not long after that, three more prospects came to Milwaukee. The day following Lind’s departure, the Red Sox sold Garin Cecchini to the Brewers for cash considerations. BP’s Bryan Grosnick called the deal “[t]he definition of ‘buying low,'” as a disastrous 2015 had caused Cecchini’s stock to plummet. Likewise, the players Milwaukee snagged in the Rule 5 draft — Colin Walsh from the Athletics and Zack Jones from the Twins — don’t carry elite pedigrees, or much upside, for that matter.

These deals nevertheless give the Brewers plenty of options for 2016 and beyond, as J.P. outlined a few weeks ago. (Plus, the quantity acquired from these transactions only increased thereafter, when the Brewers sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates, receiving Keon Broxton and Trey Supak in return.) Overall, the solid 2015 draft, along with Stearns’s willingness to trade anything not nailed down, has translated to a complete turnaround in Milwaukee’s minor-league system.

What does this mean for 2016? Well, as J.P. pointed out, the Brewers have more routes they can take at the Major League level; although few of those will likely lead to wins, the results should give the team some clarity for 2017. More immediately, it means the Triple-A Sky Sox will presumably play better in 2016. Michael Schwarz explained how that affiliate would progress with legitimate prospects filling its roster. The biggest takeaway here, though, is general optimism. Years and years of no future, at long last, appear to have come to an end. Now, more so than at any point in recent memory, there could be hope on the Milwaukee horizon.