There are methodological shortcomings to both scouting and statistical reports. Scouting reports have shortcomings in terms of potential observer biases or preferences, limited looks (even some organizations draft a player after only one look), and privileged information (or, at times, even intentional asymmetrical information from clandestine “sources”); statistics are impacted by all the contextual factors present at the MLB level, but perhaps even moreso age, quality of competition, developmental cycle (i.e., first trip to a level), and proprietary development assignments that will typically be unknown to external observers. These factors diminish the meaning of minor league statistis.

BPMilwaukee benefits from work with the Baseball Prospectus scouting team, which consistently uses a radical “eyes in the field” approach to drive scouting reports that are therefore often divergent from, and perhaps less hype-worthy (a good thing), than many industry competitors. (One example here would be the 2016 approach to RHPs Brandon Woodruff and Phil Bickford, compared to sources like FanGraphs and BaseballAmerica). To supplement reports, which can be gathered from BP player pages and daily prospect summaries published on the website, statistical analysis can be applied to index contextual factors that could impact the perception of a player’s performance. To this end, I will publish a two part series detailing the contextual factors impacting Brewers regular (or semiregular) batting and pitching minor leaguers, which should hopefully add information to the use of scouting lines throughout the offseason.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, Outfield Michael Reed played during his age-24 season at Class-AA Biloxi, and the Southern League had a median age of 24; therefore, Reed’s age index is 1.00 (after all these years, Reed is still not “old” for advanced minor league ball).

For system wide reference, here is a key:

For this exercise, I indexed Age, TAv, Opposing OPS (oppOPS), and Park Factor statistics drawn from Baseball Prospectus CSV (retrieved September 13, 2017). These categories do not exhaust the information available, but they are arguably foundations for measuring the typical quality of the regular players in the league, the quality of opposing pitchers, and any extreme (or not) park environments. Note that I did not focus on Rookie classes (Pioneer League, Arizona League, or Dominican Summer League), as those leagues are not only (arguably) more instructional in nature but also representative of professionals at their earliest stages of development (therefore, I am not quite certain what Rookie class stats “say”).

I used two methods:

• Once I created an Index for each of these statistics, I weighted each player’s OPS by assessing it against the Opposing OPS quality and contextual factors. Again, 1.00 can be read as average; below 1.00 can be read as below average, while above 1.00 can be read as better than average.
• To provide a quality control for this rudimentary method, I used a basic TAv Index. Since Total Average is already scaled to many contextual factors, it more accurately reflects a player’s performance within a specific run, park, and league environment (certainly moreso than OPS).
• By using a 50 Plate Appearance cut off, I captured 72 batting seasons performed by 63 Brewers minor leaguers.

A few observations:

• The very best statistical performances within the minor league system have varying degrees of scouting support. Keston Hiura, for example, was advertised as one of the best bats in the 2017 Draft (perhaps the most advanced college bat, even), and Hiura indeed scorched the Midwest League to the tune of a .326 TAv; he did so while being young for his league (during his first pro go-around), facing solid to slightly-tough opponents, and a moderate park environment. Jake Gatewood may have been the surprise breakout of the season, combining new contact lenses and mechanical advancements to pummel both Class-Advanced A and Class-AA leagues. Monte Harrison was another strong tools prospect – really, a fantastic athlete – that finally played a healthy season. Harrison and Gatewood diverge in terms of the type of Overall Future Potential roles they have, but here they converge in making great strides in showcasing their tools in 2017. On the other hand, Troy Stokes does not necessarily have the full scouting pedigree behind his statistical performance, which makes his 2017 season eye opening in terms of assessing an organizational depth role. Garrett Cooper was advanced minor league depth who went on to post a .275 TAv in 45 injury-shortened PA with the Yankees.

• Much has been made of the disappointing season by the much-hyped gang of Carolina bats (Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Isan Diaz, and Trent Clark). However, it should be underscored that they did not actually have bad seasons. At worst, they had arguably average seasons when considering their age and developmental status (each facing a new league the first time through). However, what is interesting is that each player has new scouting reports on potential flaws that could indeed impact Overall Future Potential; for example, a midseason 2017 eyewitness report downgraded Ray’s role, and several other members of the prospect team confirmed hit tool concerns throughout the season. This type of scouting concern cycle was repeated for several of these prospects, but it is worth nothing this was also scouts’ first full look at Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg. In this case, one ought to hold the conclusions on statistical and scouting assessments for another season, as more information will be necessary to understand these potential shortcomings. Anyway, hold the hype (and really, be healthy about hype in the first place!).

• There are a ton of interesting sleepers around here. Some interesting reports are floating around regarding infielder Wendell Rijo, for example, but the second baseman has never really flashed the stats. This year, Rijo graded solidly both in terms of contextual OPS and TAv. Clint Coulter remained young for his level (Class-AA Biloxi in 2017), and posted some intriguing peripheral statistics to go along with his overall solid line. Granted, there are few emerging reports on either of these players yet, which leaves room for a healthy dose of skepticism about future role. But, it’s worth remembering that many of these guys are so young when drafted that they remain young even through several repeated stages of Advanced ball development; hanging around at that upper level, one wonders what might come of a guy like Coulter after Garrett Cooper received trade interest.

• In terms of melding scouting pedigree and performance, Brett Phillips might have the best season of any Brewers prospect. While many viewed his 2016 campaign as a disappointment, there were several aspects of Phillips’s game that exhibited strengths even through the perceived weaknesses of his stat line. Of course, Phillips was also quite young for his level. The intriguing “elite”-4th Outfielder-to-potential CF or RF starter put it all together in 2017, including a couple of stunning cups of coffee in the MLB (including a 2-for-4, three RBI night with an Outfield Assist against the Pirates on Wednesday). Hiura has the flashiest immediate hype and performance, but Phillips’s full season production and realization of one aspect of his MLB future could arguably win him “Best Bat” of the system for 2017. I gather that someone like Monte Harrison most deserves a “Player of the Year” Award, but Phillips should not be discounted when considering the Brewers system’s best players.

Related Reading:
3 Up 3 Down: May
3 Up 3 Down: April
2016 Series

With this in mind, myself and Assistant Editor Kyle Lesniewski, with help from Baseball Prospectus prospect gurus Craig Goldstein and John Eshleman, have assembled a midseason deluxe edition of “3 Up, 3 Down.” Consider this an entry in lieu of a midseason Top 30 ranking. Ranking prospects at this point is definitely in demand from many fans, but I’d like to offer this type of content in lieu of a ranking. This editorial decision is justifiable with a system such as Milwaukee’s, I believe, especially because the very top prospects are graduating (meaning, say, RHP Luis Ortiz and 2B Isan Diaz are perhaps most likely to take the top spots in the organization), but also because talent is bunched together at so many points.

If the Brewers control approximately 200 professionals within their affiliated system, a Top 30 list comprises the top 15 percent of the system. With that in mind, it’s worth emphasizing that such a list can only ever split hairs over the most elite talent within the system. Outside of the true top talent role projections (such as Ortiz and Diaz, for example, the One Percenters of the system), there are more question marks and more risk that define ranges of talent between #3-to-#10 (next 4 percent), and then organizational depth roles that define #11-20 (rounding out the top 10 percent). Consider previous Top Ten residents like Nottingham or Monte Harrison; are these players headed back to the Top 10 give Nottingham’s bat rounding out and likelihood to stick behind the dish? Or Harrison’s resolution of tools into a ballplayer? Where do you put Top 10 newcomers like Feliciano and Burnes? What about Jake Gatewood? To this, one might be able to debate about each player’s top MLB potential and likely MLB floor role (or organizational depth role), but to that point it is also worth asking whether it matters that Feliciano slots in at, say, #6 instead of #15, or Burnes at #9 instead of #14. So, consider this feature an exercise in thinking through layers of quality depth that define a system that is going to be quite volatile after Brinson and Hader are gone (and probably with them, too), but a strong system nonetheless.

3 UP
UTIL Jake Gatewood, Advanced A Carolina (picked by John Eshleman): Following BPMilwaukee’s list last year, Jake Gatewood is quite a regular face in the midseason 3 Up, 3 Down, but that’s simply a reflection of the stages of this prospect’s progression. James Fisher scouted Gatewood at A Wisconsin in spring 2016, noting that “much of his improvement has come this year from an adjustment in his starting position. He has lowered his hands slightly and that has led to a much shorter and direct path to the ball. While his plate discipline is still suspect, he has been making harder and more consistent contact.” This observation accompanied the pick of Gatewood as a power prospect to watch, especially after a surge in Rookie Helena to close 2015. Following Fisher’s observation, Gatewood made another set of adjustments over the 2016-2017 offseason and has been one of the great surprises of the 2017 season.

John Eshleman writes, “his power has already been widely acknowledged, but this year he is less vulnerable to spin and pitches out of the zone. [This] not only shows up in his walk rate but also puts him in more hitters counts to tap that power.” Adjustments breeding adjustments, and another question mark answered; in this placement it almost appears that Fisher raised the question of Gatewood’s discipline for Eshleman to answer it this year. So here Gatewood stands, now receiving plenty of time at 1B, carving himself a nice role as a Brewers corner prospect while exposing the irony of prospect hype: it seems absurd to call this age-21 player “post hype” in 2017, but I’m also not sure Gatewood is a sleeper any longer. Look for these adjustments to round out an upper minors organizational ceiling into something that may be better suited to crack the big league roster (and goodness knows David Stearns is eyeing that SS / 3B / LF / 1B positional pedigree). Power and flexibility should hopefully keep Gatewood on close watch in this system.

1B Garrett Cooper, AAA Colorado Springs (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): The Milwaukee Brewers have one of the best farm systems in baseball, littered with top-100 prospects like Lewis Brinson, Corey Ray, and Isan Diaz. But who has the best OPS of anyone in Milwaukee’s system currently? None other than the org’s 2013 6th-round pick, Garrett Cooper. The hulking product of Auburn University has displayed a penchant for contact throughout his minor league career, but has never really displayed the power that one typically likes to see from a player that primarily mans first base. That is, until now. After popping what was a career-high 9 home runs in 128 games last season between Class-AA and Class-AAA, Cooper has already blasted 14 long balls in just 64 games this season. A career .303/.366/.463 hitter in five seasons, Cooper has tattooed Pacific Coast League pitching to the tune of a .357/.412/.614 slash this season, with his .257 ISO nearly 100 points better than his career average (though it’s worth noting his home OPS at Colorado Springs of 1.258 is much higher than his .805 OPS on the road). A toned-down leg kick appears to have helped the 26 year old right-handed hitter tap more consistently into the power than a man standing at 6’6″ and 230 lbs should be able to generate. Unfortunately for Garrett, he is currently blocked at the big league level by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Cooper was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft after being left unprotected last season but given his improved level of production this year, it’s easy to imagine someone taking a shot on him if he’s left off the 40-man roster once again this winter.

2B Keston Hiura, Rookie Arizona (picked by Nicholas Zettel): In one sense, it’s absurd to place Hiura on this list. Hiura is not on this list because of his hitting surge in Rookie ball, where the age-20 Hiura is already old. Rather, even though some scouting outlets disagreed on the strength of Hiura’s bat (without disagreeing that the bat is the calling card for the advanced college prospect), the major question marks for Hiura revolved around both his defense and his injured elbow. The Brewers beat has reported that Hiura is working at Arizona on a throwing program before playing in the field, so the jury is out on that fielding grade for the prospect. A 2B-profile without an average glove but a great hit tool make Hiura look like a rich man’s Scooter Gennett (a good thing, if perhaps a floor). However, upon being drafted, the Brewers learned that Hiura does not require surgery for his elbow injury, which adds quite a bit of immediate certainty to the prospect profile (and no, I don’t buy that the line that “recovering from Tommy John surgery is easier for position players” reduces the uncertainty involved in rehabbing a prospect from surgery). Thus, the Brewers have their top draft pick on a throwing program rather than a surgery rehab program, and this (to my mind) allows Hiura’s top ceiling to tick slightly less risky.

3 DOWN
C Andrew Susac, AAA Colorado Springs (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Though no longer technically a prospect (he’s taken 262 turns at the plate in the MLB), plenty of folks around Milwaukee hoped that Susac could become a multiyear starter for the Brewers behind the plate after he was acquired in the Will Smith trade from San Francisco last year. An injury during spring training this year helped cost him a spot on the Opening Day roster and delayed the start of his regular season by a few weeks, but since returning to action in mid-April the former top-100 prospect has struggled to get much of anything going at the plate. He’s split time with Tyler Heineman (and now Jett Bandy) and has appeared in just 32 games so far; in that time Susac has been able to manage only a .194/.250/.407 slash with five home runs in the hitter-friendly confines of Security Service Field. He has thrown out seven of the 17 runners that have tried to steal on him, but his framing numbers and all-around fielding metrics have taken a step back this year. Susac now appears at the very least to be behind Manny Pina, Stephen Vogt, and Bandy on the organizational catching depth chart, and with Jacob Nottingham coming on strong just one level behind, the age-27 catcher needs to start figuring things out before he gets lost in the shuffle once again.

IF Gilbert Lara, A Wisconsin (picked by Craig Goldstein): As the Brewers are reportedly linked to a few top International Prospects according to BaseballAmerica, one ought use the Gilbert Lara signing as a cautionary tale of sorts, but one should not use Lara’s struggles as an argument against investing in international talent for Milwaukee. The shortstop-to-third baseman has had his trip off shortstop delayed in 2017, which does raise a question about whether Lara’s defensive requirements at a position he is not suited for is impacting his performance thus far.

Goldstein on Lara: He’s only 19, but he hasn’t looked right for a couple years and I think it’s time to move on unless something changes in dramatic fashion. Oh, and he’s definitely not a shortstop.

RHP Cody Ponce, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Nicholas Zettel): Cody Ponce is one of my favorite arms in the Brewers system, so my placing him here is not really an indictment against his ceiling and floor that appeared on the 2017 Brewers Top Ten at Baseball Prospectus. Rather, it’s worth reflecting on my own biases that found Ponce to be placed in the “Potential Quick Riser” bucket I keep in my mind, as there was so much to instantly love about Ponce’s arsenal straight out of the gate. Ponce seemed like a guy who had stuff to reach the MLB as an almost certainly serviceable reliever, and I thought that floor would help him push his way to the MLB. As of this writing, Ponce is now 152.3 combined innings deep in Advanced A between 2016 and 2017, which leads one to question whether the righty’s injury during 2016 pushed back his development clock somewhat. Scouting the box score, Baseball Prospectus notes that Ponce’s groundball rate is falling as his strike out rate also declines in 2017, although it is worth noting that the Carolina League has generally been tough on Brewers prospects in 2017. Skipped over by Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta in terms of promotions to Class-AA Biloxi, one cannot let their previous expectations turn to disappointment on the age-23 hurler. Indeed, this is a great lesson that undue expectations are the foundation of hype, and hype does not develop prospects into serviceable MLB players.

This morning I’m focusing on the bats. Let’s remember where the affiliates were on April 25:

And now, through May 12:

A couple of interesting notes:

• The Pacific Coast League continues to be the most favorable batting environment within the system, which should cause fans to place a pile of salt on their statistics citations for Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Ryan Cordell, etc. Normalizing their performances to their environment should help one to present more realistic expectations for potential MLB call-ups.

• Keep an on Jacob Nottingham, who is heating up in May (.261 / .346 / .435 thus far). For the year, he’s faced brutal opposing OPS of .639 in a pitcher’s environment, so his overall total of eight extra base hits and six walks in 97 Plate Appearances look intriguing. If Nottingham can begin to find his power in this environment, it could signal a potential breakout ability in a more favorable (i.e., even an average) batting environment.

• Over the last couple of weeks, there has been a huge shift in the Midwest League at Wisconsin, causing competition levels to stratify there. Demi Orimoloye’s power surge looks especially impressive against opposing OPS of .681, so it will be interesting to see what midseason scouting reports reveal about his current performance and approach.

• Fans concerned about the performance of Lucas Erceg and Corey Ray, absent any specific scouting notes about their respective performances, should heavily weigh their tough opposition against their stat lines. Compared to the league opposition of .708 OPS, the median Carolina Mudcats regulars face opposition of .696 OPS. Within this environment, Ray has faced opponents with a .681 OPS, Erceg a .693 OPS. For this reason, throw aside the stats concerns and await scouting and approach notes.

Minor league stats are effectively meaningless, and especially meaningless without significant context for several reasons:

• First, the league environments themselves are not as readily or openly tracked as MLB, meaning that fans are not likely to have as much as an easy grasp on which parks play like Coors or which parks play like PetCo.

• A related factor impacting environment is that these professional baseball players are honing their skills, and often at different developmental stages. It’s easy to think this is more extreme in Class-A or Advanced A environments, where 19-to-20 year old Dominican Academy graduates might be playing with polished 22-to-23 year old college bats, and a set of recent draftees who might be anywhere from 19-to-21 years old, but this is easily just as extreme at Class-AA and AAA. In the advanced minors reside phenoms like Lewis Brinson, who has played each minor league level with little repetition, organizational depth like Victor Roache or Clint Coulter, 40-man Roster depth like Brent Suter and Michael Reed, and replacement players looking to either make their way back to the MLB or earn a living in the upper reaches of the minors.

• These different developmental stages obscure competitive environments prior to considering the fact that many of these minor league players may be working on specific assignments from the Front Office, meaning that the objective in the minor leagues is not as clear as in the MLB (ex., these players are not specifically in the minors to win, they are in the minors to develop).

• A player’s tools package, mechanics, and approach are most important, and it is unclear that minor league surface statistics easily translate those elements. A player who struggles through a minor league season while making a mechanical or approach adjustment may end up being a more desirable future asset than a player who shreds statistically but does not have the supporting tools, mechanics, and approach.

With this in mind, how do we read context into the minors? Baseball Prospectus offers several helpful statistics to this effect. One can use Opposing OPS to assess whether a phenom prospect is indeed phenomenal, or whether they are feasting on easy competition. Rickie Weeks was arguably a victim of this misunderstanding during his 2005 campaign, during which the 22-year old shredded the Pacific Coast League to the tune of .320 / .431 / .655. This looks all well and good until one determines that the .809 Opponent OPS Weeks faced was among the very weakest for Pacific Coast League regulars, and significantly easier than the .790 Opponent OPS faced by the median PCL player with 200 plate appearances. Brewers fans appear ready to commit a similar error of judgment with Lewis Brinson, who like Weeks is shredding the PCL (Brinson in his age-23 season) while facing some of the easiest competition in the league (.803 Opposing OPS versus .743 median for early season PCL regulars). Unlike 2005 Weeks, 2017 Brinson is also working in the easiest batting environment, which we can compare thanks to BPF, an index of park environment that Baseball Prospectus keeps for minor leagues.

Let me be clear: these statistics are not meant to diminish a player’s accomplishment. Lewis Brinson is hitting quite well, even with park factors and competition in mind; it’s just that these contextual statistics should help keep fans from expecting Brinson to immediately tear up the MLB when he reaches The Show.

With this background, here are the current batting environments faced by Brewers affiliates:

And now the pitching environments:

These tables should hopefully help to place individual performances in context. By using these tables, one can assess whether:

• A player is young or old, or of median age, for their respective league.
• A player is working in an environment that favors pitchers or batters.
• A player is facing easy competition, tough competition, or median competition.

Teammates to Watch:

• Brandon Woodruff versus Josh Hader. Thus far it’s easy to cite Brandon Woodruff’s 17/6/1 K/BB/HR line and 1.61 ERA as indicators of smashing success thus far, but the righty has faced opponents with a .702 OPS thus far. Granted, a .657 OPS-allowed still looks solid, and Woodruff is young in terms of age and developmental status in Class-AAA, so it’s not necessarily reason to be alarmed. Hader, on the other hand, appears to be struggling with command (15 K / 14 BB / 4 HR), but is facing opponents with a .169 Isolated Slugging Percentage. It will be worth looking for the scouting reports to emerge this spring, in order to assess any delivery or stuff issues, but Hader is receiving no benefits with his opponents faced.

• Biloxi Bats versus Carolina Arms. Oh, the prospects! So these guys are not necessarily teammates, but each of these units is facing difficult competition. Given that the Carolina pitching staff features several prospects excelling despite the difficulties (Corbin Burnes, Cody Ponce, and Freddy Peralta for example), midseason call-ups from the Carolina pitching staff could create an All-Team-Tough in Biloxi.

• Jake Gatewood versus Lucas Erceg. Lucas Erceg stormed the prospect scene after the 2016 draft, but few fans or analysts mentioned that the infielder faced relatively easy competition as a relatively polished college player in Class-A ball. Graduating to Carolina, the prospect is now facing a tough .644 Opposing OPS and is still knocking the ball around the ballpark (approximately 10 percent Extra Base Hits thus far). Jake Gatewood is coming into his own in Carolina, but along with some mechanical adjustments the youngster is also facing a .733 Opposing OPS. Granted, this is a case where notable mechanical adjustments are most important, as is the approach adjustment (21 K to 10 BB in 67 PA thus far). It is also worth noting that even though it seems like we’ve been following Gatewood forever, the corner prospect is still young for Advanced A ball.

• Wisconsin Pitching vs. Wisconsin Bats. Forget Colorado Springs, Appleton is also playing tough for pitchers in 2017, which is giving young arms like Trey Supak and Thomas Jankins a trial by fire. Both pitchers have acquitted themselves well thus far, despite the tough environment, which means that those K / BB / HR lines for both pitchers might be even more impressive than they seem at first glance. Meanwhile, it’s worth applying a large grain of salt to several of those blazing hot Wisconsin bats, as these prospects have faced a relatively easy path thus far. Yet, in the case of players like Demi Orimoloye and Mario Feliciano, it is worth noting that both are significantly younger than the Midwest League median age, so it is nice to see these professionals forge their paths at such young ages.

Midseason 2016 #1
Midseason 2016 #2
Midseason 2016 #3

Three Up

CF Lewis Brinson, Class-AAA Colorado Springs
With Keon Broxton struggling at the big league level, the clamoring has already begun for Milwaukee’s #1 prospect to make his debut at Miller Park. Brinson’s blistering start for the Sky Sox has only made the cries louder. He missed a few games after jamming a finger sliding into second base, but the center fielder is batting .355/.412/.649 with two home runs and three doubles in 34 plate appearances for a ridiculous .371 TAv. Unless Broxton starts to figure things out at the plate in short order, expect to see Brinson up sometime around the end of May or beginning of June. From BP’s Steve Givarz:

“We’ve talked a lot about Brinson, and rightfully so. He has tools and impact potential in center field, plus he has also cut down on his strikeouts. All of this could force Milwaukee’s hand sooner rather than later.”

C Mario Feliciano, Class-A Wisconsin
The Brewers picked Feliciano as a 17-year old prep player in the Competitive Balance Round B of last summer’s draft. The young backstop had an unimpressive debut statistically in the Arizona League, but Milwaukee’s front office saw enough to give him an aggressive assignment all the way to full-season ball to start the 2017 season. Feliciano has responded by pounding the ball to the tune of a .378/.425/.622 slash with a homer, a triple, and four doubles in 40 plate appearances for a .385 TAv. There’s work to be done defensively, as there usually is with high school catchers, but the bat might be able to play at other positions if a move out from behind the plate is needed. From BP’s Steve Givarz:

“Taken in the Competitive Balance “B” Round in 2016, Feliciano has been one of the hottest hitters in the Midwest League thus far. He offers power, bat speed, and feel to hit at the plate with an advanced approach. He’s athletic behind the plate—enough so that he could handle being moved off catcher—but is a project defensively. His receiving is raw and his transfers can be sloppy, but the bat looks pretty special.”

IF Jake Gatewood, Class-Advanced A Carolina
The Brewers signed Gatewood to an overslot deal after picking him 41st overall in 2014, hoping that his hitting skills would develop to match his plus raw power. It’s taken a few years, but it appears the 21 year old might finally be coming around. After hitting .240/.268/.391 with 14 home runs and 18 walks in 126 games at Wisconsin last year, Gatewood revamped his stance and approach at the plate. From last season:

And now in 2017:

Jake Gatewood base hit with new & improved stance. #Mudcats pic.twitter.com/rLOo0ABEOQ

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) April 14, 2017

Gatewood is now more crouched at the plate and has lowered his hand positioning pretty significantly, and the early results are extremely encouraging. Through 50 plate appearances, Gatewood is slashing .310/.420/.476 with a home run, four doubles, and perhaps most importantly, eight base on balls. Lucas Erceg’s presence in Zebulon has pushed Gatewood mostly to first base, but he retains a solid corner utility profile overall defensively. If he can sustain the improvements in his approach, Gatewood may finally be on his way to fulfilling the tremendous potential scouts placed on him when he was drafted.

Three Down

SS Gilbert Lara, Class-A Wisconsin
Three years after signing for a $3.2 mil bonus, Gilbert Lara still has yet to look like much more than a cautionary tale for handing out big checks to 16 year olds. Lara managed only a .220 TAv last season in Helena, but the Brewers still advanced him to full season ball in Wisconsin to start 2017. Thus far in 33 plate appearances, he’s batting an anemic .125/.152/.250 with a single long ball. He’s struck out 11 times versus drawing just one walk. Lara’s calling card when he was signed was his incredible power potential, but scouts have panned both his approach and swing mechanics, which haven’t allowed Lara to tap into the power with any sort of regularity. Once considered one of Milwaukee’s top prospects, Lara looks to be little more than a wild card at this point. At just 19 years old, however, time is still very much on Lara’s side.

Gilbert Lara is hitting .125/.152/.250 (and not starting every game), if you're wondering if his swing or plate discipline have improved.

— J.P. Breen (@JP_Breen) April 20, 2017

OF Trent Clark, Class-Advanced A Carolina
Clark was Milwaukee’s first round pick back in 2015 and has dealt with some unfortunate injuries that have robbed him of critical development time during his first two years as a professional. Healthy coming into this season, he was assigned to Carolina to be featured as a part of the Mudcats’ loaded roster. Clark’s hit tool was considered to be very advanced when he was drafted, but thus far the lefty-swinger is batting just .200/.348/.343 with a 32 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances in 2017. That, after posting a .231 average and 26 percent punchout rate in 59 games at low-A Wisconsin last year. Clark has middling power and his lackluster arm will likely push him to left field if he can’t stick in center, so the fact that his purported carrying tool has yet to really show through as a professional is no doubt discouraging. With so many other talented outfielders in the system, Clark may soon get lost in the shuffle. From Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser:

“Clark let multiple balls drop playing both right field and center field, earning derision from scouts in attendance who criticized his motor and effort.”

OF Clint Coulter, Class-AA Biloxi
One of Milwaukee’s two first-rounders in 2012 (along with Victor Roache), it looked like the club might have had something special in Coulter after he captured the org’s Minor League Player of the Year award in 2014. Things haven’t worked out that way in the few years since then, however. Coulter was forced to move off of catcher to right field and struggled offensively in the harsh environs of the Florida State League for 2015 and most of 2016, though a .306 TAv in 102 late-season plate appearances for Biloxi last year offered a glimmer of hope. That success hasn’t carried over into 2017, however, as Coulter is off to a .169/.219/.200 start with seven strikeouts and one walk through his first 32 plate appearances. Coulter lacks a good feel for hitting and can struggle to recognize breaking stuff, which will allow more advanced pitchers to continue to exploit him. Combine that with reportedly below-average defense in the outfield and you have the makings of a first-round bust.

Continuing age-based analysis of minor league statistics, the 2016 Midwest League could be the most interesting case yet. Unlike the Southern League or Pacific Coast League, the Midwest League featured a group of three different age levels with similar production, and two adjacent age groups that did not fall far. From age-21 to age-22 to age-23 players, Midwest League bats slashed .245 / .316 / .356, .249 / .318 / .352, and .247 / .317 / .353, respectively. On the outskirts, age-20 batted .249 / .307 / .367 while age-24 batted .252 / .315 / .333, giving the league an expansive middle ground of 345 players that can be judged by very similar production standards.

One might ask whether this reflects the nascent stages of minor league competition, perhaps where players may be closer to the same development curve, thereby exhibiting less stratification among minor league players. Perhaps Class-A is the first level at which “organizational lifers” emerge, or players hit their first professional ceiling and stick around for a year or two before heading to their next career. It would be worthwhile digging into a scouting explanation for this phenomenon, in order to see how the physical tools relate to the statistics; perhaps everyone (or almost everyone) at Class-A is still learning the strike zone, or pitch recognition, or some foundational trait that places the vast majority of players on the same level.

There are a number of notable bats that defined the Timber Rattlers in 2016. Isan Diaz produced one of the best seasons at the Class-A level, and although he did not win MVP, he certainly has the performance level worthy of consideration. Lucas Erceg also stormed the league out of the 2016 draft, demonstrating a completely different developmental stage (relatively polished college draftee) than Diaz. Along with Diaz and Erceg, several depth players produced interesting or good seasons, giving fans and writers more players to think about and watch during the 2017 campaign. Perhaps no one will be more interesting to follow than Monte Harrison, whose statistical line was damaged by a rough April and early-May, and whose hot streak was cut short by injury. Harrison has shown flashes of “putting it together,” so it will be crucial to see how he returns from injury.

Down in Florida, the Brevard County club had a rough season, mostly due to the bats. This level lagged behind in the system during 2016, and unfortunately, even age-based statistics do not allow one to reconsider many gems.

It is worth noting that Corey Ray produced a fine campaign, based on his age level and the fact that he was making his professional debut in an aggressive assignment. While Ray’s surface stats of .247 / .307 / .385 does not look very good, age-21 players in the Florida State League were notably worse than that production level, allowing one to see that Ray showed solid hitting, discipline, and (especially) strong isolated slugging. Even if one follows scouting reports to raise some questions about the hit tool, there is a sense that Ray’s tools are already showing up in his stat line, even if that line is depressed by his environment.

Related Reading:
Timber Rattler Arms
Making the Transition: Trent Clark
Lucas Erceg and Third Base Futures

Once fans come to Wisconsin for Isan Diaz, they can stay for other intriguing positional prospects, as the club is beginning to shape out its 2014 and 2015 draft legacies. At this turn, the low minors arms may be ahead of the low minors bats in the Brewers system, and Wisconsin arguably reflects that balance. Prospects such as Diaz, Trent Clark, Monte Harrison, Jake Gatewood, Lucas Erceg, and Troy Stokes, Jr., have a collection of solid tools, but their profiles thus far grade slightly behind their pitching teammates in terms of impact. Beyond these well-recognized names, one might even dig for some sleepers at Wisconsin, although the caveat about leaping to the next levels to define or change a ceiling apply here, too.

The lack of clearly-defined ceilings for several Wisconsin bats is not necessarily a concern at Class-A, since these players must advance through the next A-level club and make the leap into the upper minors before the probability of their respective ceilings becomes even clearer. Below, BaseballProspectus scout and writer James Fisher notes that a couple of Timber Rattlers have defensive profiles that are awaiting a step forward from the bat; there are even some prospects that need additional looks. In this sense, the 2016 Timber Rattlers effectively define (and headline) the Brewers loaded organizational depth even where they fail to define better than average MLB ceilings.

Midwest League Environment
Judging minor league players by their statistics is a tricky endeavor. First and foremost, since players are developing their tools at the minor league level, their actual performances on the field are not always indicative of their MLB ceiling or potential future value. Furthermore, if a player is honing in on one specific area of their respective toolbox, other areas of their performance may suffer in their statistics. In this case, it is somewhat possible to have a player move forward without necessarily showcasing each of their tools in their statistical record. Age and development levels can also impact a player’s performance; this is especially true in the Midwest League, for instance, where a 19-year-old performing in their first full season of professional play after being drafted out of high school would be expected to perform at a different level than a polished college player working in their age-21 or age-22 season.

With that in mind, one way to consider minor league statistics is by judging each player within their specific context of age, opposition strength, and league strength. For example, the Midwest League is a much more depressed environment than the Class-A counterpart South Atlantic League, which impacts how one can read statistics. League statistics were compiled for the first installment of this series, August 20-22, 2016:

With this in mind, I developed two charts to judge batting and pitching context for the Midwest League. 218 Midwest League batters have had regular play after the June draft or throughout the season, with a base threshold of 130 PA:

The 90th percentile is most elite, meaning that a player facing .661 opposingOPS pitchers is facing tougher competition than 90 percentof the league, or a .300 TAv is better than 90% of Midwest League regulars (i.e., the other way around, that player would be in the Top 10 percent of production). In terms of age, the 20th percentile is old for the level, the 90th percentile age is extremely young.

For pitchers, 228 arms have worked 30 innings or more:

In this case, a 2.55 FIP is better than 90% of regular hurlers, and a pitcher that faces a .682 opposingOPS is facing tougher competition than 90 percent of the Midwest League regular arms. One can note that comparing the full Midwest League with “regular players,” regular batters (130+ PA) have posted a much better median TAv than the league median (.252 TAv for regulars, .243 TAv for the full league). So, one might expect a regular batter to have a better performance in this sense (depending on their age and strength of opposition, of course).

Wisconsin Batters Scouted
The following entries are built from BP James Fisher’s scouting notes, which were compiled during an early August series in Appleton. All statistics compiled on August 24, 2016.

Catchers
Max McDowell (80th percentile TAv, 50th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): McDowell is a large framed catcher with strength throughout. At the plate, he starts with an even stance and rests the bat on his shoulder before moving his hands up to his ear. Has slightly below average batspeed and doesn’t recognize spin. Behind the plate, McDowell has a low seat with a quiet frame. He struggles to handle quality stuff, with changeups especially giving him fits. Boxes plenty of balls as well as passed balls through the wickets. Throws well with 1.93-1.98 pop times, and the footwork helps the arm play up a touch. AA/AAA Ceiling. Wisconsin Note: McDowell has produced an excellent TAv at a median age, and against median competition.

Natanael Mejia (below 20th percentile TAv, 20th percentile age, 90th percentile competition): Large, soft bodied catcher. Mejia starts from a slightly open stance and high hands. Below average batspeed and limited contact ability. Defensively, he moves ok behind the plate, but lacks the ability to handle quality stuff. A Ceiling. Wisconsin Note: As a notably old player, Mejia faced the most difficult competition and produced a poor TAv.

Infielders
Luis Aviles (50th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Aviles has a lean athletic frame with wiry strength throughout. From an even, upright stance in the box with his hands at his shoulder, Aviles has average batspeed but struggles with pitch recognition at present. Aviles can really pick it in the field. He moves side-to-side well and has body control for short. The arm is a 6, with true carry through the bag and ability to make throws from different angles. At this point, Aviles is a defensive specialist that lacks bat to ball. AA/AAA ceiling unless light comes on with bat. Wisconsin Note: Aviles is a slightly younger than median player with a median TAv against relatively weak competition.

Isan Diaz (80th percentile TAv, 90th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Athletic, medium framed second baseman with premium offensive toolset. At the plate, Diaz combines a quality bat path with a slight uppercut. It’s a loose, easy swing with above average batspeed and barrel awareness. Diaz understands his weight transfer, at times making hitting look easy, and he really lets his hands do the work. The ceiling is a 6 hitter with at least average pop. In the field he is just a step short for shortstop and has trouble going right. At second his feet will be average and the arm will play.
MLB Role: First division regular with all-star potential.
Wisconsin Note: Diaz is among the youngest players in the Midwest League, and produced a notably above average TAv against near-median competition.

Lucas Erceg (90th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Tall, lean framed third baseman with feel to hit and plus arm. There is room for strength projection here. At the plate, Erceg starts tall with slightly open stance and hands at his ear, combining 6 bat speed with hands that work and a loose swing. Can get long at times, but makes adjustments. In the field, he has soft hands and enough range for third. Erceg’s arm is a weapon.
MLB Role: Regular at 3B.
Wisconsin Note: As a relatively young player facing relatively weak competition, Erceg is producing an elite TAv.

Jake Gatewood (30th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Gatewood is a tall, lean framed infielder with plus power and arm strength. At the plate, he starts from an even stance with his hands at his shoulder, and has average bat speed. However, Gatewood struggles to make adjustments, and spin will always give him trouble. The raw power is a 7, but he lacks enough contact to get there. Gatewood is mixing time between third and first at present with enough range and arm for third, but he needs to hit. AA/AAA ceiling unless bat takes big jump forward. Wisconsin Note: Gatewood remains notably young at Class-A, and is producing a below average TAv against near-median competition.

Jonathan Oquendo (below 20th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 80th percentile competition): Tall, lean frame with athleticism. Oquendo starts at the plate with an even stance and his hands at his shoulder. The bat path is inconsistent, but he does have average batspeed. Oquendo doesn’t like spin and is susceptible to it on outer half. With long lanky strides, he is a slightly below average runner. DH’ed in my look. Hold on ceiling until further looks. Wisconsin Note: Oquendo is a notably young player facing very tough competition, and is producing a poor TAv.

Alan Sharkey (below 20th percentile TAv, 50th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): Medium, strong framed first baseman with strong lower half. At the plate Sharkey’s bat speed and pitch recognition are lacking. There is power potential from strength in frame, but he won’t make enough contact to reach it. Average at best at first base. Has reached ceiling. Wisconsin Note: As a median age player against median competition, Sharkey posted a poor TAv.

Outfielders
Carlos Belonis (below 20th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition): Tall, lean framed outfielder with athleticism. Belonis starts with a closed front foot and his hands above his head at the plate, and he strides closed. He has average bat speed, but an inconsistent swing path and approach leave him behind. He often guesses on pitches and huntsfor fastballs because he struggles with spin. In the field Belonis has an average arm and enough athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot. A/AA ceiling at best. Wisconsin Note: Belonis faced weak competition and was relatively young for Midwest League, and he posted a poor TAv.

Trent Clark (60th percentile TAv, 90th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Strong, medium framed, athletic outfielder with plus tools at the plate and the field. Starting at the plate with a slightly open stance and his funky hands at shoulder, Clark’s plus batspeed and a consistent bat path lead to loft. The power will come as the plate discipline does for Clark; there is plenty of strength and batspeed to project average power. In the field he is still recovering from leg issues, but is running okay (4.10, 4.12, 4.38, 4.12, 4.44). Handles center at present with solid jumps and routes, but most likely a corner outfielder with enough arm for right.
MLB Role: 4th OF/Regular.
Wisconsin Note: Clark is among the youngest players, and posted a slightly better than average TAv against near-median competition.

Brandon Diaz (below 20th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition): Diaz is a small framed, athletic outfielder with batspeed and defensive tools. Starting at the plate with open stance and hands at shoulder, Diaz has average batspeed and some feel for the barrel. Runs okay in left and has an average arm. Only 3 AB’s. Need more of a look. Wisconsin Note: Diaz has a poor TAv at a relatively young age facing weak competition.

Troy Stokes Jr (80th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Stokes is a small framed athletic outfielder with strength throughout. Physically maxed out. At the plate he starts with an even stance and his hands at his shoulder, and gets into a slight bat wrap at times and messes up his timing. Stokes has average bat speed but struggles with pitch recognition. Isn’t a burner with 55 run times. Interesting routes in LF at times but is solid. Tweener 4th outfielder type when all is said and done. AA/AAA ceiling. Wisconsin Note: Stokes is notably young and facing relatively weak competition, and is posting a notably above average TAv.

DL:
Tucker Neuhaus (90th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition); Juan Ortiz (below 20th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition); Monte Harrison (20th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 50th percentile competition)

James Fisher is a BaseballProspectus scout and author.

Related Reading:
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Improve Minor League Pay

Minor League Statistics Context
The trouble with writing about prospects is that while fans enjoy looking at stats they know and understand, Minor League stats do not provide the same insights that MLB stats can share. First and foremost, given player assignments from the player development department, there are aspects of a prospect’s performance that escape statistics and therefore must be quantified via scouting reports that highlight physical traits and approaches. If a prospect is working on a particular aspect of their game, their statistics may not necessarily reflect their value. Furthermore, each player’s age, assignment, and other contextual factors impact the judgment of their performance. Batting .275 does not carry the same weight in the Pacific Coast League as the Florida Southern League, nor does it carry the same weight for, say, a 23 year old AA prospect as it might for a 20 year old AA prospect.

Since this installment of this feature will focus on several batters, I have outlined the number of “regular” players in each minor league from Milwaukee’s A to AAA affiliates, and I have also shown the progression in “opposing difficulty.” Since BaseballProspectus showcases the opposingOPS and opposingTAv for minor league players, one can add to the context of their performances by understanding the difficulty of their competition (via opposing OPS, or OPS allowed by the pitchers each batter faced).

The goal of this chart is to serve as a backdrop for reading BaseballProspectus minor league statistics, and to add contextual information that can round out a player’s age, developmental profile, assignment, and scouting reports. One can dig into each Brewers prospect’s BaseballProspectus player page, or leaguewide minor league stats, and understand the range of competition for each player (which adds context to their performance).

Three Up
Jacob Nottingham, AA Biloxi (James Fisher): There is an argument to be made that Jacob Nottingham could rise to become the top positional prospect in Milwaukee’s system by providing above average power from behind the plate. While the main calling card is Nottingham’s power, the 21 year old catching prospect is improving his defensive game during his first career pass through AA. James noted that Nottingham “has really transformed his defensive game into a near average package. [Nottingham] really put in the time and has dedicated himself to the defensive side of the ball.” This observation echoes previous BaseballProspectus reports highlighting Nottingham’s athleticism on the defensive end of the game. Even if one is ready to criticize Nottingham’s batting line of .245 / .309 / .355, his .251 TAv matches the average Southern League catcher, and he has faced average competition for Southern League regulars.

Brett Phillips, AA Biloxi (Kyle Lesniewski): If Nottingham does not emerge as the system’s most valuable positional prospect, chances are Brett Phillips had something to say about it. The potential five tool centerfielder has really gone after his in-game power during his second pass at AA Biloxi. Phillips smacked 10 homerless extra base hits for the 2015 Shuckers in 98 PA; now, he can claim 30 extra base hits in 320 PA, including 11 home runs. One might wonder whether Phillips’s plate approach is an outgrowth (or cause) of the home run surge, as a previous moderate strike out (19 percent) / moderate walk (8 percent) profile in Advanced A has morphed into a high walk (11 percent) / high strike out (32 percent) approach with AA Biloxi. This is not necessarily problematic, as one might look for Phillips to morph his power-hungry approach and previous moderate contact approach as he becomes a more seasoned hitter (he remains young for AA at 22 years old). Notably, Phillips has faced slightly below average competition, but his .281 TAv trails only Garrett Cooper among Shuckers starters.

BaseballProspectus edged Phillips into their midseason Top 50 list, ranking the centerfield prospect at #49.

Jake Gatewood, A Wisconsin (Nicholas Zettel): Rummaging through game logs last year, Jake Gatewood caught my eye during his second stint at Rookie Helena (following a multi-level, Wisconsin / Helena double header on July 13, 2015). Gatewood’s power showed up in a big way: the infield prospect smacked six extra base hits in his first 10 games back at Helena, en route to a .292 / .361 / .523 performance over 147 PA (which included a massive plate discipline shift, to 34 K / 13 BB). James Fisher scouted Gatewood at A Wisconsin earlier this spring, noting that “much of his improvement has come this year from an adjustment in his starting position. He has lowered his hands slightly and that has led to a much shorter and direct path to the ball. While his plate discipline is still suspect, he has been making harder and more consistent contact.” Playing at third base, Gatewood slumped during June, but has turned another corner in July, posting five extra base hits and five walks in 47 PA thus far. Fans inclined to give up on Gatewood should consider his position change and mechanical adjustment during his age 20 season, and keep in mind that the power prospect is a work in progress that is also making progress.

Three Down
Ariel Pena, AAA Colorado Springs (James Fisher): In a season thin with silver linings, Ariel Pena emerged as late value from the 2012 Zack Greinke trade. Pena performed well in a brief swingman role, leading one to question whether the rookie would be able to further establish a big league niche for himself during the rebuilding campaign. Unfortunately, Pena has been hit hard all year, including a 22 K / 21 BB / 6 HR / 23 R stretch as a reliever for the Sky Sox. Pena is currently on the seven-day DL.

Monte Harrison, A Wisconsin (Kyle Lesniewski): Some Brewers fans questioned whether Gatewood and Monte Harrison would ever be separated by Brewers fans, given their adjacent draft rounds in the 2014 draft, and the fact that both players signaled a sea change for previous Scouting Director Bruce Seid. While Gatewood turned a corner with his major tool in 2016, the athletic and prime positioned Harrison also was burning up A Wisconsin before breaking his ankle. Fans can only dream on his .321 / .377 / .679 June, as one must question how this injury will impact his player development outlook for 2017.

Karsen Lindell, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): Perhaps my rating of Karsen Lindell is my own fault, given that my main opinion of Lindell entering the season was formed on a collage of scouting reports, YouTube, and K / BB / HR and GB:FB numbers in Arizona Rookie ball. When there is little information on a depth prospect, or extremely young prospect, I often fall back on strike zone numbers and groundball numbers as a way to “paint” that pitcher’s approach. From an intriguing 29 K / 13 BB / 3 HR mark (and 51 percent groundball rate) against 147 batters in 2015, thus far Lindell is posting 5 K / 11 BB and 41 percent groundball rates in Helena Rookie ball. We must wait for the reports to see what Lindell has been working on, but thus far this sleeper pick looks premature on my part.

Of course, Melvin didn’t always struggle in this facet of management. The first five years of his tenure (2003-2007) saw the Brewers draft Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy, among others. Those players combined with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall — whom the team had selected in the pre-Melvin seasons — to form a strong nucleus that helped the club make playoff runs in 2008 and 2011.

After that, however, the prospect well dried up — such that, for five years running, the Brewers have placed in the bottom five of BP’s organizational rankings:

[Note: These rankings began in 2008.]

With the aforementioned core heading to the Major Leagues, Milwaukee sorely needed to replenish its system. Melvin responded with the opposite due to the club’s competitive window. In deals for CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum, he sent away Matt LaPorta, Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffess, and Brett Lawrie. Some of those players didn’t end up accomplishing much, but the prosperity of some of them — particularly Brantley and Cain, each of whom has played at a borderline-MVP level in the past couple years — have made many fans regret the trades retrospectively.

Inadequate drafting compounded the woes of those deals. Jack noted in his piece that the club’s picks from later years haven’t yet amounted to much. Over the past few years, teams such as the Rangers have managed to maintain a solid minor-league system despite swinging big trades, and they’ve done so by constantly restocking their affiliates through the draft and international free agency. Part of that is good scouting, too, while part of that is a willingness to spend money. Melvin’s Brewers partook in the former half of the equation while neglecting the latter half, though, and it has come back to haunt them.

With that said, Milwaukee has made recent strides. BP’s writeup of the farm system stated that it possessed “talent to makes several teams quite jealous” — a massive improvement from its standing over the past several seasons. After spending the first half of the decade in the minor-league cellar, the 2015 Brewers have taken the necessary steps to move back up to the top half.

Part of this, in fairness, happened before this year. In August, Julien Assouline analyzed the team’s drafts under Melvin, who had perhaps not received the credit he deserved. Some of Melvin’s strengths there stem from the early years, but even in the later part of his run with the Brewers, they fared moderately well. Derek Harvey commented that the club’s drafts from 2009 to 2014, under late scouting director Bruce Seid, provided them with numerous quality players that presently stock their system. Indeed, of the top-20 current Milwaukee prospects, eight — Jorge Lopez, Devin Williams, Monte Harrison, Tyrone Taylor, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeiros, Yadiel Rivera, and Michael Reed — came from drafts during that span, while Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara signed with the team as amateur free agents in that period.

Still, an improvement of this magnitude, and in this short a span, suggests something different in the past twelve months. Part of the difference stems from the 2015 draft, which has (to this point) yielded incredible rewards. Four of those top-20 prospects came to the team in June: Trent Clark, Cody Ponce, Demi Orimoloye, and Nathan Kirby. Clark stands out as the best of the bunch, but all four have intriguing upside and could continue to blossom further. New scouting director Ray Montgomery, as Harvey observed, seems to have taken off.

The team’s decision to finally rebuild has helped with that. July saw them deal away established starters Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, and Jonathan Broxton, as well as (relative) stars Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. Those trades — which, as J.P. Breen correctly posited, meant the team had recognized that its window has closed — brought back a great deal of prospects. Yhonathan Barrios, Zach Davies, Malik Collymore, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser now occupy various levels of the Milwaukee system; Phillips, Davies, Houser, and Hader ranked in the top 20, while Santana has already begun to contribute at The Show. Together with Marcos Diplan, an intriguing top-20 farmhand whom the team acquired in last January’s Yovani Gallardo swap, they amount to a formidable group.

Overall, David Stearns inherited a solid amount of prospects when he became the GM in August. Surveying the trove a couple weeks before Melvin stepped down, Derek Harvey concluded that the system had gone from the bottom to the upper half of the league — a prediction that, as stated previously, we’ve likely seen come true. Stearns didn’t stop there, though. In his four-odd months atop the organization, he’s made several trades to bolster the minor- and major-league depth, further improving the system as a whole.

The first two transactions came in mid-November. Stearns swapped Cy Sneed for the Astros’ Jonathan Villar, then followed that up by shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers in exchange for Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). Seth Victor described Villar at the time as “a good acquisition for a team that needs middle infield depth and flexibility,” a player who won’t make a noticeable difference yet should still provide some value. Betancourt — who rounded out the top 20 — is, in Chris Crawford’s estimation, “a high-floor prospect with a fairly well-defined ceiling.” In other words, he could become a Villar-type player a few years down the road.

After BP published its top-20 list, Stearns has made a few more moves, evidently in an effort to muck up the rankings. First came the Adam Lind trade, which brought back three young pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta. While I can certainly see the logic in Jack’s distaste for the deal — Lind gave us something to cheer for in this dreadful 2015 season, and those players always hurt to lose — I ultimately come down on the side of J.P., who expressed cautious optimism regarding it.

Not long after that, three more prospects came to Milwaukee. The day following Lind’s departure, the Red Sox sold Garin Cecchini to the Brewers for cash considerations. BP’s Bryan Grosnick called the deal “[t]he definition of ‘buying low,'” as a disastrous 2015 had caused Cecchini’s stock to plummet. Likewise, the players Milwaukee snagged in the Rule 5 draft — Colin Walsh from the Athletics and Zack Jones from the Twins — don’t carry elite pedigrees, or much upside, for that matter.

These deals nevertheless give the Brewers plenty of options for 2016 and beyond, as J.P. outlined a few weeks ago. (Plus, the quantity acquired from these transactions only increased thereafter, when the Brewers sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates, receiving Keon Broxton and Trey Supak in return.) Overall, the solid 2015 draft, along with Stearns’s willingness to trade anything not nailed down, has translated to a complete turnaround in Milwaukee’s minor-league system.

What does this mean for 2016? Well, as J.P. pointed out, the Brewers have more routes they can take at the Major League level; although few of those will likely lead to wins, the results should give the team some clarity for 2017. More immediately, it means the Triple-A Sky Sox will presumably play better in 2016. Michael Schwarz explained how that affiliate would progress with legitimate prospects filling its roster. The biggest takeaway here, though, is general optimism. Years and years of no future, at long last, appear to have come to an end. Now, more so than at any point in recent memory, there could be hope on the Milwaukee horizon.

BP Milwaukee is digging deeper into the Brewers’ farm system, though, as Christopher Crawford and the rest of the BP Prospect Team have exclusively provided their No. 11-20 prospects for Milwaukee. The scouting information comes from Crawford (compiled and written by myself), with some of my personal thoughts coming at the end.

11.  Nathan Kirby, LHP
12. Jacob Gatewood, SS
13. Demi Orimoloye, OF

A common refrain in the Brewers’ system, none of the three prospects listed above were a part of the organization two years ago. All are intriguing pieces, but patience will be essential. Kirby was once considered a safe top-five pick before injuries knocked him to the supplemental round. His recent Tommy John surgery pushes his timeline back even further and makes his ugly 5.68 ERA in Class-A rather irrelevant. In truth, he’s not too different from fellow UVA alumni Danny Hultzen, just with a shoulder that’s not decaying.

Gatewood has massive bat speed and plus-plus power potential — as evidenced by his 40 extra-base hits in just 389 at-bats — but the contact issues prevent him from being anything more than a high-value lottery ticket. What’s crazy is that Orimoloye could have more upside than Gatewood. The Brewers’ fourth-round pick has three tools with 60 potential and showed a bit more feel for hitting than expected. He could be a Top-100 prospect by the end of the 2016 season, if his early success carries into the upcoming campaign.

14. Josh Hader, LHP
15. Adrian Houser, RHP
16. Kodi Medeiros, LHP

Hader pitched well in Double-A for the Astros organization this past year, but the left-hander kicked it into a higher gear after moving to Double-A Biloxi. He has an above-average fastball that touches 98 mph and two competent secondary offerings. Although his penchant for missing bats has garnered him a lot of attention from Brewers followers, the arm action remains ugly and difficult to project. That latter piece will unfortunately follow him until he’s able to put together a substantial body of work at the highest level.

Some folks in the industry were most impressed with Houser and his development in the second half. The command and the secondaries come and go, an inconsistency that could force him to the bullpen, but his 2.92 ERA and 4.0 percent walk rate for Double-A Biloxi illustrate the fact that he made some impressive adjustments that could help him stick as a starter if everything continues to progress.

Medeiros isn’t too different from Hader, just a couple levels his junior. The lefty has some strong supporters in the industry who believe in his devastating fastball-slider combination, while some are heavy detractors due to his poor changeup, bad mechanics, and non-ideal size. On the bright side, the 19-year-old handled an aggressive promotion to full-season ball and didn’t allow a single home run in 93.1 innings. He could ultimately be a reliever, but he could be a darn good one.

17. Yadiel Rivera, SS
18. Marcos Diplan, RHP
19. Michael Reed, OF
20. Javier Betancourt, 2B

The final quartet is a mixed bag, with potential bench bats and a talented young pitcher with extreme variance in his potential outcomes. Rivera and Betancourt are glove-first middle infielders (at shortstop and second base, respectively) with little chance to do anything special with the bat. Betancourt has a bit more bat speed and more feel for the barrel, but Rivera is one of the best defensive shortstops in all the minors. While they’re a pair of unexciting prospects, small-market organizations need to develop quality bench players to ensure they don’t have to overspend for them in free agency.

Speaking of homegrown reserves, Reed may be the perfect fourth outfielder. No standout tools and a lack of physical projectability limit his ceiling, but he’s well-rounded, smart, and can provide quality defense in the corner outfield spots. He hit .278/.379/.422 in Double-A. The power needs to take a real step forward, though, if he’s going to stick as an everyday guy.

Diplan is another guy with big stuff and a small body, so all the natural question marks pertain. He posted a 3.75 ERA in 50.1 innings for Helena in the Pioneer League, striking out an impressive 25.7 percent of the batters he faced. At 19 years old and ages away from being anything concrete, he’s a wild card in the system.

BREEN’S TAKE

Although the above list is grouped in three tiers, it should be noted that a significant drop-off exists between Kodi Medeiros and Yadiel Rivera, at least for me. The top-16 prospects can largely be ordered however you’d like. Personal preference matters. I know at least one scout who would push Hader and Houser into the top-10, another who would demand for Orimoloye to be ranked higher, and yet another who would balk at Kirby’s omission from the top-10 list. That’s how these things go, which is why all prospect lists should be read for their content much more than the individual ranking slots.

Still, the future of the Brewers’ system depends on the development of many of these players. If Hader, Houser, and Medeiros ultimately wind up as sure-fire relievers, this list suddenly has a different complexion. Similarly, if Gatewood cuts down the strikeouts and continues to hit for power and Orimoloye enjoys more success in 2016, the Brewers will have a plethora of high-end offensive prospects that should help them shorten their rebuilding process. And if general manager David Stearns bolsters the system with additional trades this winter, things look even more promising.

I believe the most encouraging aspect of Baseball Prospectus’ top-20 Brewers prospects is what is not present. Guys like Clint Coulter, Tyler Wagner, Damien Magnifico, and Miguel Diaz have legitimate big-league potential (to varying degrees and with different timelines, of course) and couldn’t crack either of the lists. Those will certainly feel like oversights to some people, but it’s really splitting hairs whether someone is ranked No. 17 or No. 23. The real takeaway is the fact that the Brewers have enough depth to have 20-plus prospects with legitimate big-league potential.

And given the fact that David Stearns has already shown a willingness to move Major League players for prospects, the full-blown rebuilding process in Milwaukee has a chance to be less painful than the one that happened in Chicago or Houston. A fan can’t ask for anything more than that.