Stearns just loudly answered that question this trade deadline.

What is fascinating about each of these trades is that they are fantastic in the sense of bolstering an MLB roster, in order to ensure that this stretch run features as few weaknesses as possible, while also potentially being over-pays in each case. Yet it should be stressed that these overpays are palatable for several reasons: the Brewers maintain a largely controllable roster that is also relatively inexpensive; the Brewers have a relatively large set of players that have been minor leaguers long enough to need potential 40-man roster protection entering 2019; and, perhaps most importantly, there is an incredible amount of role risk involved with each player. These trades should provide grounds for further analysis into when and how potential overpays are helpful to a team, and they should certainly provide further evidence that WARP/$ is not the sole determination of a trade’s potential value or impact.

Grading the System: 2016 || 2017

• Make no mistake about it, in terms of developing multiple quality pitches, command, and velocity, Luis Ortiz could potentially have the best pitching role for the Brewers system; there was a time, two years ago even, where it would not have been absurd for Ortiz to fight for a top tier pitching role in the prospect ranking cycle (and, really, it was not absurd). But Ortiz has been around forever in the advanced minors, it seems, without working full seasons. For example, the injury-fighting righty has 225 innings at Double-A without working 100 innings in a season, and with 68 innings at the 2018 deadline he could potentially miss 100 innings once again. If Ortiz can take his next step forward in the Orioles’ system, he is absolutely a more valuable asset, in terms of roster surplus, than Jonathan Schoop (and it is not close!!!), but that strong 60 Overall Future Potential (OFP) / 50 likely grade entering 2017 looks much more improbable. Ortiz is eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the 2019 season and almost certainly must be protected by the Orioles.

• Jean Carmona just made the jump stateside for the Brewers in 2018, and thus remains a full four levels away from the MLB. Additionally, Carmona might even be another year away from a clearly defined MLB potential role. In this regard, I do not envy the job of MLB scouts and analytics personnel, as it’s not entirely clear for me how I would price Carmona’s potential future value in terms of long-term systemic development.

• At BP Milwaukee, Kyle Lesniewski describe the roles and risks associated with both Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez. Medeiros could become an impact reliever at the MLB level, and it’s not unlikely that some observers still believe that he could start in some capacity, as there will always be hold outs for that sort of role. Given Medeiros’s delivery and command profile, however, as well as his fastball, Lesniewski outlines the difficulties that Medeiros may have for reaching even an impact reliever profile. Medeiros is eligible for the Rule 5 draft entering the 2019 season, and almost certainly must be protected by the White Sox, while Perez had yet to play stateside in the Brewers system.

• Finally, I already detailed the roles and surplus value for Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez, so I will not go into too much detail here. However, I will add that of each of the prospects included in this midseason deals, Phillips is arguably the most likely to have MLB floor and ceiling roles that both surpass the value of the trade return (which is not a knock against Mike Moustakas, he simply might only be in Milwaukee for a couple of months). With a prospect such as Corey Ray coming on strong in Double-A Biloxi, not to mention the considerable development of Troy Stokes Jr. at the advanced level as well, Milwaukee cannot necessarily lose sleep over trading away a depth outfielder from their stacked group when they are fighting a close divisional deficit and leading the National League Wild Card race.

So, readers will witness a couple of recurring facts in these trades: the Brewers largely traded away players that must be protected for 2019 to avoid their loss via the Rule 5 draft, or players with little-to-no stateside development experience (and thus years to reach MLB), and/or players with roles that may be replicated within a year. One need not believe that a player like Stokes will surpass Phillips, in terms of overall ceiling, to see the value of the young prospect’s potential to fill an MLB depth position in 2019. Phillips himself may not have had an opportunity in 2019 to take such a role. The same logic might apply to Quintin Torres-Costa and Bubba Derby. This should not be construed to mean that these current system prospects are categorically better than Phillips / Medeiros / Lopez; in fact, I would have ranked each of that trio ahead of their potential 2019 depth replacements. But once again, since systemic development, contending windows, and player development cycles are now orbiting a club that is contending for consecutive seasons (and the foreseeable future, hopefully), if it costs system depth roles to improve MLB weaknesses, the Brewers have to eat the risk of losing those ceilings.

I like when MLB trades can simply be called good baseball moves. For all the rebuilding narratives in Baltimore, Kansas City, and Chicago, the White Sox, Royals, and Orioles front offices arguably made sensible trades with quality returns that both have long and short time horizons and development cycles. Milwaukee is working as a true contender without trading from their most elite potential prospect stash. This is good all around.

Stearns priced out these converging development cycles and adroitly moved the future role risk to address an offense that absolutely needed help for a serious contending run. Just the other day I wrote, “At worst, Travis Shaw has simply begun a potential shift over to the right side of the infield, where he might serve as a viable first base option for 2019 should the Brewers and Moustakas exercise his mutual option for 2019,” without thinking that a realistic move to first base for Shaw could occur as early as this week. Now, with Jonathan Schoop in the mix for second base and Jesus Aguilar slumping, Shaw becomes a strong side platoon option at 1B to form a serious infield unit:

This infield could open 2019 should Stearns consider keeping both Moustakas and Schoop, and now the talk can turn to development cycles once more. While the Brewers continue to season second baseman Keston Hiura at the most advanced levels of the minor leagues, Schoop basically serves as an upgrade over the Jonathan Villar gamble (gambling that he’ll return to his 2016 form), thus giving the Brewers a quality starting option while Hiura completes his minor league development. While Hiura’s bat is arguably ready for the MLB, and has been mentioned as a potential MLB option by Baseball Prospectus in their latest Top 50 list, the infielder may need more work in the field after missing significant fielding development time due to an extended elbow injury. Once Hiura is ready in 2019, a Schoop / Hiura mix simply extends the #TeamDepth mantra, and the same can arguably said for the remainder of the infield.

Entering 2018, the Brewers system took a step back in terms of organizational rankings, due to a series of developmental setbacks for key prospects, MLB graduations, and trades. I began to highlight this during last year’s “Grading the System” feature, but as one can never predict baseball, the development cycles and potential OFP assessments calibrated for Corey Ray, Keston Hiura answered a crucial risk question (can he play 2B?), and a veritable gang of pop-up pitchers continued to march upward in the system, potentially boosting and extending the no-name, depth-oriented pitching staff into 2019. Make no mistake about it, the system might continue to rank in the middle of the league in terms of overall quality, and the set of clear potential impact roles (true 60 OFP+ roles) may end with Keston Hiura and Corey Ray should Corbin Burnes exhaust his rookie standing through the end of 2018.

Yet, given the instant development of 2018 First Round draft pick Brice Turang, the Brewers could demonstrate that they indeed nabbed an Elite Prep prospect that fell due to prospect fatigue. Turang could quickly help to boost the top of the system as an MLB potential role falls into place. Moreover, given the Brewers’ expanded efforts in International signings, as well as the quality use of signing bonus allocations in each of the last two MLB drafts, the lower minors could continue to host a variety of players that suddenly surge onto the prospect scene. While this does not make the Brewers system different than many other MLB systems, it provides a road map to how the club can continue to develop talent while contending. One could argue that it’s absurd to suggest that the Brewers “rely” on someone like Turang falling in the MLB draft, but this is exactly the type of prospect perception and role foresight that the Brewers must have if they are going to succeed while drafting in the bottom half of each round.

Of course, the notable graduations from the system should not be undersold as well. Now there are so many starters, depth roles, and trades from the Brewers prospect stock that I added a new category this year:

Now, with these graduates in mind, what does a somewhat thinner, but still rather interesting Brewers system look like?

Prospect Key
Top 10 Consideration
Top 30 Consideration
[Just Interesting]

Of course, it is also worth emphasizing how the system has been….decimated in key areas. Given the quick development by advanced prospects acquired from the major 2015-2016 trades, as well as the huge trades entering 2018 and during the recent deadlines, the pool of potential impact prospects acquiring via trade has waned:

This is an important category to consider simply because Milwaukee demonstrated how adroit trades could quickly rebuild a system and reform an MLB roster. It will be worth watching to see if the Stearns continues to attempt to find Jonathan Villar and Keon Broxton types via trade now that the club is solidly contending. Of course, one could argue that Stearns is always trying to find this player (be it Oliver Drake, or Jesus Aguilar, or even Alec Asher), but that it simply the fact that these players will not always come via trade.

Thanks to the mechanical corrections, good health, and overall development of Corey Ray, as well as the surging role of Troy Stokes Jr., the development of draft prospects arguably has a better outlook entering 2019 than it did prior to 2018. Given the advancement of Corbin Burnes into a relief role, Brandon Woodruff and Taylor Williams into respective swingman and depth relief roles, and Brett Phillips into a fourth outfielder, it is clear that the Brewers front office is considering all possible role developments with each player (rather than following a cookie cutter model, or a model in which each prospect must immediately receive playing time in their clearest future role). It is arguable that this type of development strategy could maximize roles ranging from Stokes to Zack Brown, Jake Gatewood, and maybe even Lucas Erceg.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee signed a couple of additional potential impact International Amateur free agents this July, continuing an attempt to build up the low minors. Carlos Rodriguez and Larry Ernesto are already making some noise in the Dominican Summer League, while prospects like Jose Sibrian and Jesus Lujano have made the leap stateside.

Frankly, this Brewers system will not look as strong, in terms of potentially elite impacts roles, as the one that received ranking for 2018 at Baseball Prospectus. Yet, as new cycles of player development depth emerge in the low minors, and the Brewers continue their unique form of MLB roster construction (clearly using all 40 roster spots for MLB-adjacent roles and frequently shuffling those roles), Milwaukee could be an organizational well-suited to do more with less. For if 2017 fired the opening shot that the Brewers can contend simply based on giving high floor players a chance to work in the MLB, 2018 is advancing that ideal and carrying it to deeper logical, promotional, and transactional extensions.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports Images

Stepping into speculative histories of MLB players, I’ve been thinking about what I’d expect from players like Burnes or Peralta if they reached the MLB in 2018. Both pitchers provide extreme challenges to the observer, and for different reasons.

• Burnes provides a challenge because the righty’s quick ascent to the advanced minors has out-paced the non-proprietary information available about the pitcher, which manifested itself during the 2017 season in the form of widely varying fastball, slider, and delivery reports. From early in the season, when on-the-ground reports placed Burnes as a potentially high reliever-risk profile who could make it work as a middle rotation starter, to late in the season when delivery adjustments and improved fastball reports began leaking out, fans and analysts were essentially given several different pitchers’ worth of information. Entering 2018, then, it’s worth asking whether Burnes is the fastball / slider reliever with middle rotation question marks, the middle rotation arm who could decrease reliever risk by continuing to refine his delivery, or the surging pitching prospect who simply continues to redefine roles by refining mechanics and therefore allowing his stuff to take the next step. All of this can happen with Burnes, or none of it; thus the righty prospect is an acute example of information asymmetry.

• Peralta faces different questions about his stuff and profile, especially due to his diminished stature (compared to Burnes) and his pitching approach (he’s not quite a command-and-deception guy, but he twists and turns his fastballs in order to help his stuff “play up”). In one sense, Peralta is much more conventional than Burnes, insofar as Peralta will be lauded as “the small framed righty who proved everyone wrong” should his frame stick in a functional mid-rotation role. On the other hand, given the frame and lack of a strong fastball, it is worth questioning how Peralta’s arsenal and command will play as he advances in the system. The significance of the righty’s pitch sequencing and location will not be understated. It’s tough to say whether Peralta faces “reliever risk” in the same sense Burnes does, as Peralta’s top role is even murkier than his Advanced Minors teammate.

So, if Burnes and Peralta reach the MLB in 2018, what will their potential roles be? What performance levels might fans expect? With Counsell looking at both pitchers as potential midseason reinforcements for the staff, it is worth digging into potential production expectations.

Role risk will be nothing new to the 2018 Brewers; role risk is all over the roster, even beyond the rookie class. But, in attempting to form expectations about Burnes and Peralta, I turned to other rookie pitchers that are on the MLB roster or in Spring Training camp as non-roster invitees. By my count, these rookies comprise (in order of height) Peralta, Taylor Williams, Marcos Diplan, Jorge Lopez, Aaron Wilkerson, Erik Davis, Burnes, Luis Ortiz, Adrian Houser, Brandon Woodruff, Tyler Webb, and Jon Perrin.

• Several of these arms are already established as MLB relievers or very likely to have relief roles in 2018 (see Williams, Lopez, Davis, Houser, and Webb).

• A few of these arms are organizational depth with questionable futures in terms of organizational plans (see Diplan, Lopez, Wilkerson, Davis, Ortiz, and Perrin).

• Finally, there’s a deep group of potential rotation depth, in terms of starters who could work as rotational replacements or MLB emergency starters in 2018 (Peralta, Diplan, Lopez, Wilkerson, Burnes, Ortiz, and Perrin).

• Woodruff is likely the only pitcher here who is a rotational lock in 2018 (and even writing that leads me to raise some questions, as “There is no such thing as a pitching prospect,” there is no such thing as a surefire pitching role).

Available PECOTA projections (March 2, 2018) for 2018 Brewers rookies (Erik Davis and Jon Perrin projections unavailable). This table features IP projections, as well as Runs Allowed and Runs Prevented figures drawn from projected Deserved Runs Average. Runs Prevented figures are drawn from an average of the 2016-2017 Miller Park / National League. PECOTA strike outs, walks, and WARP are also featured.

With these dozen pitchers, I’ve already laid out extensive role risk simply by categorizing these arms. So, in order to form potential expectations for 2018, I turned to speculative history: namely, how many pitchers in the MLB expansion era matched these arms’ precise height, weight range, handedness, and age as rookies? That is to ask, if these pitchers reach the MLB as rookies in 2018 (e.g., their precise 2018 age), how does their physical profile fare (e.g., their handedness, height, and weight?).

To answer this question, and engage in this speculative exercise, I used the indispensable (and highly recommended) Baseball Reference Play Index to search comparable expansion era players. I searched the expansion era because it is a largely integrated era that also includes a relatively similar form of baseball over the decades in terms of pitching arsenals or prototypes (it tracks the diminishing knuckleball, rise of the splitter / forkball, rise of the fastball / slider profile, etc.). Additionally, as I attempted to search other time frames, I found the reasoning to be rather arbitrary (e.g., if I search the Wild Card Era, should I simply search the Contemporary PED era? If I only search the expanded Wild Card Era (2012-present) will I have a large enough group of players to analyze? And so on).

Using the expansion era, here are the search results from Baseball Reference Play Index. For each player, I searched exact height, handedness, age, and rookie status, while also searching a five percent range in weight (there are some issues with using listed weight). The “Comps” column shows the number of historical rookie comparisons for each potential 2018 Brewers rookie.

This table shows the basic summary of the searches that I conducted using the Play Index tool. What immediately surprised me was the lack of comparisons for some players (like Peralta, Diplan, and Webb), and the large number of comparisons available for “prototypical” starting pitching frames (particularly Lopez, Burnes, and Woodruff). Alternately, for a supposedly “old” prospect, the number of comparisons available for Perrin also surprised me, which suggests to me that there has been a path in MLB history for righties of his size and draft pedigree to reach the MLB, even if it takes a while.

Meandering through the comparisons, there are simply some fun and interesting names that appear.

• 2018 rookie Jon Perrin would reach the MLB at the same time as 2012 rookie Yu Darvish, who shares Perrin’s handedness, age, height, and basic weight range; among older comps, Doug Brocail and Todd Worrell are my favorites for Perrin.

• A few names jump off of 2018 rookie Brandon Woodruff’s spreadsheet, like Corey Kluber (!), Ryan Vogelsong, and (of course), Tim Worrell.

• Corbin Burnes has Michael Fulmer and Steve Bedrosian, Houser has Kevin Quackenbush, while Neftali Feliz and Shelby Miller belong to Luis Ortiz. Fulmer is a fascinating comp for Burnes not because of his excellent MLB performance, but because he shared Burnes’s information asymmetry in terms of advanced minors scouting roles and MLB adjustments to exceed expectations. Feliz and Miller are interesting comps for Ortiz, for as the righty faces questions about innings workload and relief risk, it’s good to remember that successful arms have also shared the righty’s frame, height, and age as rookies.

• The lone comps for Diplan and Peralta? Peralta matches 2000 rookie Byung-Hyun Kim (!), while Diplan matches 1965 rookie Dick Selma.

• Obviously, there is a world of gray area here, as these comparisons say nothing about a player’s draft or international development status, stuff, place in the minor league system, etc. Moreover, for my search, I did not use these comparisons to create trends or aging curves, so what I am attempting should not be read alongside the (much more methodologically sound) PECOTA system.

From these searches, a batch of 257 rookie comparison seasons resulted. In order to analyze potential performance markers in environments comparable to the 2016-2017 MLB, I indexed each season according to Runs Allowed per Game (RA/G), and sampled post-Strike rookies that played during a season with a run environment within 5 percent of the 2017 RA/G. This analysis produced a sample of 85 rookie comparison seasons. The following table shows the basic production range for this 85 rookie population:

For this analysis, I focused on Innings Pitched and basic league-level Runs Prevented (I did not investigate historical park factors for this analysis). To compensate for the lack of park factors, I produced a range of runs prevented estimates. Overall, this group of pitchers did not average high innings pitched totals (presumably due to their rookie status, in many cases), with the average pitcher in this sample working nearly 39.0 innings.

This sample can be further categorized to focus on each specific Brewers rookie’s physical profile. In the next table, a range of runs prevented (RnPrv, LowRnPrv, and HighRnPrv) accompany Innings Pitched and Runs averages and standard deviation (IP, IP_StDev; Rn, Rn_StDev).

This table undoubtedly demonstrates a wide range of potentialities for these Brewers rookie pitchers. The innings pitched variance alone suggests that these players could range anywhere from “Did Not Play” to 70-to-80 IP seasons. It’s easy to get excited about some of these results; for example, 75 innings pitched and five runs prevented from Corbin Burnes, or 56.3 IP and six runs prevented from Taylor Williams would represent excellent rotational and bullpen support for Milwaukee.

Yet, the basic averages might provide some hint as to why the Brewers front office has remained quiet on the pitching free agency market thus far: even averaging around 35 innings and providing moderate runs prevented totals, this group of pitchers has a physical pedigree that suggests competent replacement depth can come from rookie ranks. Of course, it is impossible to fully extrapolate from these historical rookie comparisons to the Brewers 2018 pitching staff; this is not a correlative relationship. Yet, through this speculative historical analysis, one can find that Milwaukee has some solid physical characteristics with plenty of historical counterparts (especially Lopez, Burnes, and Woodruff); there are also some nearly one-of-a-kind profiles (see Diplan, Peralta, and Webb). Ultimately, these dozen rookies present Milwaukee’s front office and field management with an array of options to collect outs and prevent runs, even if they’re a group of wide-ranging replacements.

Baseball Prospectus. 2018 PECOTA (March 2, 2018) [CSV]. Retrieved March 4, 2018 from baseballprospectus.com.

Baseball Prospectus. “More PECOTA” (Player Cards). Retrieved March 4, 2018 from baseballprospectus.com.

Baseball Reference. Play Index. Sports Reference, LLC., Sports Reference LLC, 2000-2018. Searches conducted March 3, 2018 from baseball-reference.com.

Part One: Cooper / Gatewood / Hiura

Throughout the season, I’ve attempted to provide contextual statistics that help fans read along with the box scores. If we are going to have to read imperfect information, we might as well know as many things as possible for the league. For example, in Brinson’s case, we have a swirling set of circumstances: although he’s very young for AAA Pacific Coast League, he’s also facing easy competition in an extremely friendly hitting environment. This does not diminish his tools, but it should add some salt to the stat line. To accompany this installment of the Midseason 2017 3 Up 3 Down, here is an attempt to provide a normalized index for the Brewers’ “regular” minor leaguers thus far. This exercise should also be taken with a grain of salt, as there are imperfections even with the information available about minor league players; for example, a player’s youth in a league may not necessarily make the league more difficult depending on their toolbox, or a player’s park environment also might not accurately reflect the impact on player development.

One benefit of normalizing statistics is that players can be compared across levels to some degree. So, I normalized a player’s On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) or OPS-allowed for pitchers by using:

• Individualized Opposing OPS normalized by league context (league median Opposing OPS for regulars).
• Batting and Pitching Park Factors (where available) normalized against median league park factors for regular players.
• Player age normalized by league median age for regular players.

Weighing these elements together, consider the Brewers batting minor leaguers with 100+ PA, and minor leaguer arms with 30+ IP (and available park factors). Tables are pasted below for maximal reading enjoyment. Batters are ranked from high-to-low to showcase the players whose OPS performance occurred against the “lowest” or toughest Opposing OPS, and pitchers are ranked from low-to-high to showcase the arms whose OPS performances occurred against the “highest” or toughest Opposing OPS. Take a grain of salt with this index, as age is highly favored, as is park factor. Park factor may also unduly impact opposing OPS, as there is a good argument to be made that such a number should not be park adjusted (since it already expresses context in a different manner). But, it’s an approximation of a batter or pitcher’s OPS performance against their environment, which may be something to keep in mind alongside scouting reports or other “naked” discussions of their performances.

The BPMilwaukee Editorial Staff (Nicholas Zettel and Kyle Lesniewski) contributed to this feature, as well as Craig Goldstein and John Eshleman from the Baseball Prospectus prospect team.

3 UP
LHP Nick Ramirez, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): The Brewers drafted Ramirez in the 4th round in 2011 out of Cal-State Fullerton to be a power-hitting first baseman. The power has always been there as the left-handed slugger clubbed 95 home runs in 685 minor league games, but his career appeared to have stalled out after a third straight season of hitting under .250 in Class-AA. Last fall, the Brewers asked Ramirez to switch back to the other position he handled during his collegiate career: left-handed reliever. After a six year layoff, Ramirez has shown a surprisingly good feel for mound work while navigating through the Southern League. He’s appeared in 28 games and tossed 42.0 frames, yielding only a minuscule 1.50 ERA. His 29:17 K/BB rate and 3.68 FIP are a bit more pedestrian than the ERA would suggest (though he is generating an absurd amount of infield fly balls at 23.8 percent), but again this guy hadn’t pitched in over a half-decade prior to 2017. Nick has flashed a 90-91 MPH fastball along with a changeup and curveball and has been able to hold opposing lefties to just a .180 batting average against. Oh, and he also has two home runs and a 1.207 OPS in 19 plate appearances as a hitter this year, too. Ramirez is set for minor league free agency this fall if Milwaukee doesn’t add him to the 40 man roster, but a switch to the mound should certainly lengthen what appeared to be a career on life support less than a year ago.

C Mario Feliciano, A Wisconsin (picked by Craig Goldstein): Was it obvious that Lucas Erceg was the better prospect than Mario Feliciano following the 2016 draft? Certainly, Erceg was the more polished ballplayer, and his quick ascent during the 2016 season allowed him to churn the hype machine on his draft position. But, separated within the BaseballAmerica pre-draft Top 500, the two were respectively ranked #72 and #103, which is not an extreme spread and not necessarily as impactful as separating the #5 prospect from the #36 prospect. Both Erceg and Feliciano were drafted in the second round, Feliciano as a Competitive Balance pick. The reports on Feliciano were optimistic about his ability to stick behind the plate from the get go, which also theoretically gives the youngster positional advantage over Erceg. This is not to say that I expect Erceg to drop out of the 2018 Top 10 and Feliciano to leap into the Top 10 (they both could be there!), but simply that there is not a clear chasm of value between Erceg and Feliciano in the long term, and in the grand scheme Feliciano may be the better pure future value prospect.

Goldstein on Feliciano: He’s cooled off of late but he has the athleticism to catch and his bat is potent enough to handle a switch off the position should it come to that.

IF Aaron Familia, Dominican Summer (picked by Nicholas Zettel): Don’t scout the stat line, I know, I know, but if you’re going to scout the stat line there’s not many places better to do so than the Dominican Summer League. These guys are so far from the MLB as to be literal dreams, but there’s still good reason to maybe eye up some peripherals and see how the young guys in the league are performing. Familia is one of the Brewers’ 2016 signings from the July 2 period, and he returned to the Dominican Summer League after a rough first stint during his age-17 season. Now, Familia has found his footing, walking 10 times in 68 PA as of this writing, along with eight extra base hits and a .278 batting average. That walk rate is above average even for the 2017 DSL, as is the extra base hit total (the 2017 DSL has a .238 AVG with five percent of plate appearances resulting in an extra base hit). One ought to keep an eye on Familia, as the Brewers have recently been aggressive in promoting young DSL talent to the USA midseason (Franly Mallen comes to mind, for example). If Familia continues to prove himself, he could add to the bulk of amazing high risk talent at the bottom of the Brewers system.

3 Down
OF Corey Ray, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein, Josh Eshleman):
At Baseball Prospectus, Christopher Crawford praised the Corey Ray pick following the 2016 draft: “He can flat out hit, and he has underrated pop from the left side. He’s also a guy who can steal 30-40 bases, and I give him at least a chance to stick at center. The upside is high, but it’s the extremely high floor that makes me love this pick. Good job, Milwaukee.” More measured debate focused on the potential issue of Ray as a ‘tweener (centerfield versus left field), with additional questions arising about how Ray’s offensive profile might play should he become a left fielder. Perhaps that high floor ‘tweener looks pretty solid, although scouting questions are eating at that high ceiling.

Goldstein on Ray: Ray hasn’t had a bad season by any means, but in my viewing he didn’t pop like you’d think a top-five selection would, a sentiment echoed by others I’ve talked to.

Eshleman on Ray: The primary concern among scouts is Ray’s hit tool, and he has struggled with velocity in 2017, a primary reason has k-rate has ballooned over 30%.

RHP Marcos Diplan, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Diplan was mentioned as one of the prospects to keep an eye on in the Top 10 Prospects post from the BP main site earlier this year, but he’s struggled mightily to prevent runs ever since a midseason promotion to high-A last season. His fastball can hit the mid-90s and he flashes a plus slider, which has helped him miss bats at a rate of 9.6 K/9 this season. But his control appears to have taken a step in the wrong direction, as he’s issued walks at an 11.5 percent clip this season and has already unleashed nine wild pitches. Diplan’s diminutive stature and still-developing changeup may mean he’s already ultimately ticketed for the bullpen at some point, but a 5.77 ERA/4.82 DRA/4.71 FIP isn’t what you want to see out of a guy who is supposedly considered to be one of the org’s better pitching prospects.

2B Javier Betancourt, AA Biloxi (picked by Nicholas Zettel): What do you do with a prospect like Javier Betancourt in a professional era that fetishizes home runs, strike outs, and walks? Betancourt is exactly the opposite. The advanced ball second baseman is batting approximately 77.8 percent of balls into play for the season, which basically means that Betancourt’s strike outs, walks, and home runs total the basic strikeout rate of the typical 2017 Southern League batter. Granted, there was never a ton to dream on for Betancourt from the day the Brewers traded for him, as he’s a true glove first second baseman without a high ceiling on the bat (ex., the opposite of Isan Diaz, perhaps). Yet, I think there’s something worth looking into for nearly any young batting profile (at age-22, Betancourt is indeed among the small class of younger AA players) that can maintain a median performance for that age group at an advanced level of professional baseball. I also think it’s worth looking at Betancourt precisely because he is such a left turn from the typical Brewers prospect at the moment (all tools, lots of swing and miss, boatloads of speed and power to make up for that). A bit of a wrinkle in Betancourt’s defensive position accompanies a recent slump, but it could be worth stating that if Betancourt continues to play at 2B and 3B, a modified utility profile could escalate the odds that he gets a chance to test this all-contact profile at the MLB level.

Betancourt perhaps is the answer to a question I ask myself from time to time, is there room for “bat control” guys in contemporary MLB? Which is simply to remind everyone that iterations of baseball are subject to professional preferences (and perhaps biases). One could conceivably design an MLB based around guys like Betancourt, which raises another interesting question, namely what would we think about guys like Lewis Brinson or Demi Orimoloye or Keon Broxton if the league was all about the Betancourts? Not that the league should be all about the Betancourts, but rather what value could be found in a seemingly stalled prospect profile that nevertheless is producing at an advanced class.

Minor League Context Tables:

I cheated and included Corbin Burnes in Class-AA Biloxi because if you can’t cheat a little bit, what’s the fun?

Related Reading:
3 Up 3 Down: Gatewood / Nottingham / Phillips

Key Promotions
Recently, some of the most intriguing arms in the Brewers system received promotions.

RHP Marcos Diplan has been transferred to Brevard Cty. RHP Kaleb Earls has been placed on the DL. RHP Trey Supak transferred to Wisconsin

— Brewers Player Dev (@BrewersPD) July 10, 2016

#Brewers have promoted RHP Angel Ventura to @BiloxiShuckers and RHP Freddy Peralta to @BCManatees.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 9, 2016

This year’s A Wisconsin affiliate has simply been stacked with arms, so much so that one might have forgotten about Marcos Diplan. Within the system, Miguel Diaz and Jon Perrin stormed the stage (although these RHP are both interesting for different reasons) as homegrown arms, and Freddy Peralta (also in Brevard County now) stepped forward to put a face with those names returned in the Adam Lind trade. So, Diplan stood as one of the earliest “rebuilding” trade returns in Milwaukee’s system, but the teenager struck out 89 of 295 batters faced. Questions about Diplan’s size and secondary stuff at times lead one to expect a bullpen profile for the righty, but those huge strike out profiles make even that outcome appear more exciting.

Trey Supak was something of a lottery ticket return as a part of the Jason Rogers trade, even if he ultimately has a frame and some tools worth projecting. Recovering from a previous injury, Supak faced a potentially brief 2016 campaign, but the righty has impressed by making quick work of R Helena: an 11 strikeout / 1 walk campaign preceded Supak’s promotion to Wisconsin, where the 20 year old will look to prove himself against older, full season talent. While Diplan and Supak have completely different frames, development patterns, and injury histories, it’s somewhat tempting to place Supak’s risk category in the same realm as Diplan: you’ve got to dream on the tools as a starter, but there’s still a lot to like even in a relief profile.

In the season of Junior Guerra’s stunning MLB success, non-linear developmental patterns should become an area of further analysis. While Angel Ventura’s path has not meandered in the same way that Guerra’s did, the righty spent three seasons in the Brewers Dominican Summer League before coming to the United States. It’s easy to dismiss Ventura as an “old” prospect in some sense, then, but the righty has consistently posted solid strike out rates in both A Wisconsin and A+ Brevard County. Now, while he’s working in AA Biloxi, the 6’2″ prospect continues to serve as underrated organizational depth, this time only a couple of steps away from the MLB. While all eyes are rightfully on Orlando Arcia to officially judge the retooled Milwaukee International system a success, Ventura could also serve as a success story and a lesson about patience in player development.

Three Up
Jon Perrin, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): While Brewers fans might rightfully focus on the aggressive assignment for RHP Cody Ponce out of the 2015 draft, his 27th round counterpart Jon Perrin has forced his way to the same level in 2016. Kyle Lesniewski previously featured Perrin at BPMilwaukee, tempering expectations from his A Wisconsin dominance by noting the righty’s age and rotational profile. Now, with eleven games under his belt in Brevard County, the extreme strike out / walk profile looks good (19 percent / five percent). While it’s tough to lay off of the Mike Fiers comparisons given Perrin’s size, depth status, and draft profile, one must watch the righty’s flyball rate, as that may be the most important comparison and aspect of Perrin’s game to define his advancement.

Franly Mallen, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): Before there was Gilbert Lara, Milwaukee’s big International smash, there was Franly Mallen, a much less hyped but arguably as interesting prospect for the Brewers system. When Mallen was signed, reports did not necessarily highlight a standout tool, although some scouts reportedly looked for projectable power. Last year was arguably a type of breakout for Mallen, in the sense that he received one of the most aggressive promotions out of the Dominican Summer League from the Brewers front office. Mallen has done nothing but rake in Helena, boasting TAv of .366 and .311 (at age 19, now, no less). The youngster is already off of shortstop, which could speak more to the jampacked shortstop position in the system than Mallen’s glove, but it remains to be seen if this move is permanent. Even so fans can salivate at the Javier Betancourt / Wendell Rijo / Isan Diaz / Franly Mallen potential pipeline at second base, if that move is permanent.

Nate Orf, AAA Colorado Springs (James Fisher): At every turn, when the Brewers system improved in 2015, most of the hype went to players like Orlando Arcia and Jorge Lopez. But Nate Orf, an undrafted free agent signed by the Brewers in 2013, also carried his production to AA Biloxi last year, earning a spot in the Arizona Fall League. James Fisher called Orf a “utility guy that can really hit.  Under the radar guy that will be a big leaguer, [and] deserves some recognition.” True to form, Orf is posting a .294 TAv while playing second base, third base, and shortstop in Colorado Springs. Should the Brewers make as many trades as one might expect during the deadline crunch, fans and analysts should look out for the 26 year old Orf in Brewers blue, solidifying the multifaceted infielder as a true Bruce Seid era success story.

Three Down
Gilbert Lara, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): It seems roundly unfair to place Lara in this category (if anything, it’s an argument against prospect bonus hype): the 18 year old only has instructional ball and 344 plate appearances in the USA as his professional experience, and has a long way to go to reach his toolsy projections. BaseballProspectus ranked Lara fifth in the Brewers system due to his immense talent, with power being the calling card here. Those tools simply have not shown up in games yet, as Lara works to define his plate discipline and approach.

Wei-Chung Wang, AA Biloxi (James Fisher): Don’t look now, but just as soon as we brainstormed this feature, Wei-Chung Wang looks to be on another second half surge. James noted that Wang’s stuff is backing up, and also noted that the strike out / walk profile is not ideal. Once again, Wang has his work cut out for him, as the southpaw will arguably need to stabilize his up-again, down-again organizational status as he tries to convince the Milwaukee front office to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this autumn.

Clint Coulter, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): Last year, some fans and analysts clamored about the placement of Coulter within year-end prospect lists, as the catcher-turned-right fielder’s stock fell. The rough times in Brevard County continued in 2016. This time around, one might point to Coulter’s notably below average competition (.673 opposing OPS, placing Coulter’s competition ahead of only 25% of Florida Southern regulars) and age as additional question marks for the prospect. The silver lining is that Coulter’s bat improved in June and is currently solidly hot in July (.311 AVG with five extra base hits in 50 PA), so hopefully Coulter has a redemption storyline on target.

Of course, Melvin didn’t always struggle in this facet of management. The first five years of his tenure (2003-2007) saw the Brewers draft Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy, among others. Those players combined with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall — whom the team had selected in the pre-Melvin seasons — to form a strong nucleus that helped the club make playoff runs in 2008 and 2011.

After that, however, the prospect well dried up — such that, for five years running, the Brewers have placed in the bottom five of BP’s organizational rankings:

[Note: These rankings began in 2008.]

With the aforementioned core heading to the Major Leagues, Milwaukee sorely needed to replenish its system. Melvin responded with the opposite due to the club’s competitive window. In deals for CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum, he sent away Matt LaPorta, Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffess, and Brett Lawrie. Some of those players didn’t end up accomplishing much, but the prosperity of some of them — particularly Brantley and Cain, each of whom has played at a borderline-MVP level in the past couple years — have made many fans regret the trades retrospectively.

Inadequate drafting compounded the woes of those deals. Jack noted in his piece that the club’s picks from later years haven’t yet amounted to much. Over the past few years, teams such as the Rangers have managed to maintain a solid minor-league system despite swinging big trades, and they’ve done so by constantly restocking their affiliates through the draft and international free agency. Part of that is good scouting, too, while part of that is a willingness to spend money. Melvin’s Brewers partook in the former half of the equation while neglecting the latter half, though, and it has come back to haunt them.

With that said, Milwaukee has made recent strides. BP’s writeup of the farm system stated that it possessed “talent to makes several teams quite jealous” — a massive improvement from its standing over the past several seasons. After spending the first half of the decade in the minor-league cellar, the 2015 Brewers have taken the necessary steps to move back up to the top half.

Part of this, in fairness, happened before this year. In August, Julien Assouline analyzed the team’s drafts under Melvin, who had perhaps not received the credit he deserved. Some of Melvin’s strengths there stem from the early years, but even in the later part of his run with the Brewers, they fared moderately well. Derek Harvey commented that the club’s drafts from 2009 to 2014, under late scouting director Bruce Seid, provided them with numerous quality players that presently stock their system. Indeed, of the top-20 current Milwaukee prospects, eight — Jorge Lopez, Devin Williams, Monte Harrison, Tyrone Taylor, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeiros, Yadiel Rivera, and Michael Reed — came from drafts during that span, while Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara signed with the team as amateur free agents in that period.

Still, an improvement of this magnitude, and in this short a span, suggests something different in the past twelve months. Part of the difference stems from the 2015 draft, which has (to this point) yielded incredible rewards. Four of those top-20 prospects came to the team in June: Trent Clark, Cody Ponce, Demi Orimoloye, and Nathan Kirby. Clark stands out as the best of the bunch, but all four have intriguing upside and could continue to blossom further. New scouting director Ray Montgomery, as Harvey observed, seems to have taken off.

The team’s decision to finally rebuild has helped with that. July saw them deal away established starters Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, and Jonathan Broxton, as well as (relative) stars Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. Those trades — which, as J.P. Breen correctly posited, meant the team had recognized that its window has closed — brought back a great deal of prospects. Yhonathan Barrios, Zach Davies, Malik Collymore, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser now occupy various levels of the Milwaukee system; Phillips, Davies, Houser, and Hader ranked in the top 20, while Santana has already begun to contribute at The Show. Together with Marcos Diplan, an intriguing top-20 farmhand whom the team acquired in last January’s Yovani Gallardo swap, they amount to a formidable group.

Overall, David Stearns inherited a solid amount of prospects when he became the GM in August. Surveying the trove a couple weeks before Melvin stepped down, Derek Harvey concluded that the system had gone from the bottom to the upper half of the league — a prediction that, as stated previously, we’ve likely seen come true. Stearns didn’t stop there, though. In his four-odd months atop the organization, he’s made several trades to bolster the minor- and major-league depth, further improving the system as a whole.

The first two transactions came in mid-November. Stearns swapped Cy Sneed for the Astros’ Jonathan Villar, then followed that up by shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers in exchange for Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). Seth Victor described Villar at the time as “a good acquisition for a team that needs middle infield depth and flexibility,” a player who won’t make a noticeable difference yet should still provide some value. Betancourt — who rounded out the top 20 — is, in Chris Crawford’s estimation, “a high-floor prospect with a fairly well-defined ceiling.” In other words, he could become a Villar-type player a few years down the road.

After BP published its top-20 list, Stearns has made a few more moves, evidently in an effort to muck up the rankings. First came the Adam Lind trade, which brought back three young pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta. While I can certainly see the logic in Jack’s distaste for the deal — Lind gave us something to cheer for in this dreadful 2015 season, and those players always hurt to lose — I ultimately come down on the side of J.P., who expressed cautious optimism regarding it.

Not long after that, three more prospects came to Milwaukee. The day following Lind’s departure, the Red Sox sold Garin Cecchini to the Brewers for cash considerations. BP’s Bryan Grosnick called the deal “[t]he definition of ‘buying low,'” as a disastrous 2015 had caused Cecchini’s stock to plummet. Likewise, the players Milwaukee snagged in the Rule 5 draft — Colin Walsh from the Athletics and Zack Jones from the Twins — don’t carry elite pedigrees, or much upside, for that matter.

These deals nevertheless give the Brewers plenty of options for 2016 and beyond, as J.P. outlined a few weeks ago. (Plus, the quantity acquired from these transactions only increased thereafter, when the Brewers sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates, receiving Keon Broxton and Trey Supak in return.) Overall, the solid 2015 draft, along with Stearns’s willingness to trade anything not nailed down, has translated to a complete turnaround in Milwaukee’s minor-league system.

What does this mean for 2016? Well, as J.P. pointed out, the Brewers have more routes they can take at the Major League level; although few of those will likely lead to wins, the results should give the team some clarity for 2017. More immediately, it means the Triple-A Sky Sox will presumably play better in 2016. Michael Schwarz explained how that affiliate would progress with legitimate prospects filling its roster. The biggest takeaway here, though, is general optimism. Years and years of no future, at long last, appear to have come to an end. Now, more so than at any point in recent memory, there could be hope on the Milwaukee horizon.

BP Milwaukee is digging deeper into the Brewers’ farm system, though, as Christopher Crawford and the rest of the BP Prospect Team have exclusively provided their No. 11-20 prospects for Milwaukee. The scouting information comes from Crawford (compiled and written by myself), with some of my personal thoughts coming at the end.

11.  Nathan Kirby, LHP
12. Jacob Gatewood, SS
13. Demi Orimoloye, OF

A common refrain in the Brewers’ system, none of the three prospects listed above were a part of the organization two years ago. All are intriguing pieces, but patience will be essential. Kirby was once considered a safe top-five pick before injuries knocked him to the supplemental round. His recent Tommy John surgery pushes his timeline back even further and makes his ugly 5.68 ERA in Class-A rather irrelevant. In truth, he’s not too different from fellow UVA alumni Danny Hultzen, just with a shoulder that’s not decaying.

Gatewood has massive bat speed and plus-plus power potential — as evidenced by his 40 extra-base hits in just 389 at-bats — but the contact issues prevent him from being anything more than a high-value lottery ticket. What’s crazy is that Orimoloye could have more upside than Gatewood. The Brewers’ fourth-round pick has three tools with 60 potential and showed a bit more feel for hitting than expected. He could be a Top-100 prospect by the end of the 2016 season, if his early success carries into the upcoming campaign.

14. Josh Hader, LHP
15. Adrian Houser, RHP
16. Kodi Medeiros, LHP

Hader pitched well in Double-A for the Astros organization this past year, but the left-hander kicked it into a higher gear after moving to Double-A Biloxi. He has an above-average fastball that touches 98 mph and two competent secondary offerings. Although his penchant for missing bats has garnered him a lot of attention from Brewers followers, the arm action remains ugly and difficult to project. That latter piece will unfortunately follow him until he’s able to put together a substantial body of work at the highest level.

Some folks in the industry were most impressed with Houser and his development in the second half. The command and the secondaries come and go, an inconsistency that could force him to the bullpen, but his 2.92 ERA and 4.0 percent walk rate for Double-A Biloxi illustrate the fact that he made some impressive adjustments that could help him stick as a starter if everything continues to progress.

Medeiros isn’t too different from Hader, just a couple levels his junior. The lefty has some strong supporters in the industry who believe in his devastating fastball-slider combination, while some are heavy detractors due to his poor changeup, bad mechanics, and non-ideal size. On the bright side, the 19-year-old handled an aggressive promotion to full-season ball and didn’t allow a single home run in 93.1 innings. He could ultimately be a reliever, but he could be a darn good one.

17. Yadiel Rivera, SS
18. Marcos Diplan, RHP
19. Michael Reed, OF
20. Javier Betancourt, 2B

The final quartet is a mixed bag, with potential bench bats and a talented young pitcher with extreme variance in his potential outcomes. Rivera and Betancourt are glove-first middle infielders (at shortstop and second base, respectively) with little chance to do anything special with the bat. Betancourt has a bit more bat speed and more feel for the barrel, but Rivera is one of the best defensive shortstops in all the minors. While they’re a pair of unexciting prospects, small-market organizations need to develop quality bench players to ensure they don’t have to overspend for them in free agency.

Speaking of homegrown reserves, Reed may be the perfect fourth outfielder. No standout tools and a lack of physical projectability limit his ceiling, but he’s well-rounded, smart, and can provide quality defense in the corner outfield spots. He hit .278/.379/.422 in Double-A. The power needs to take a real step forward, though, if he’s going to stick as an everyday guy.

Diplan is another guy with big stuff and a small body, so all the natural question marks pertain. He posted a 3.75 ERA in 50.1 innings for Helena in the Pioneer League, striking out an impressive 25.7 percent of the batters he faced. At 19 years old and ages away from being anything concrete, he’s a wild card in the system.

BREEN’S TAKE

Although the above list is grouped in three tiers, it should be noted that a significant drop-off exists between Kodi Medeiros and Yadiel Rivera, at least for me. The top-16 prospects can largely be ordered however you’d like. Personal preference matters. I know at least one scout who would push Hader and Houser into the top-10, another who would demand for Orimoloye to be ranked higher, and yet another who would balk at Kirby’s omission from the top-10 list. That’s how these things go, which is why all prospect lists should be read for their content much more than the individual ranking slots.

Still, the future of the Brewers’ system depends on the development of many of these players. If Hader, Houser, and Medeiros ultimately wind up as sure-fire relievers, this list suddenly has a different complexion. Similarly, if Gatewood cuts down the strikeouts and continues to hit for power and Orimoloye enjoys more success in 2016, the Brewers will have a plethora of high-end offensive prospects that should help them shorten their rebuilding process. And if general manager David Stearns bolsters the system with additional trades this winter, things look even more promising.

I believe the most encouraging aspect of Baseball Prospectus’ top-20 Brewers prospects is what is not present. Guys like Clint Coulter, Tyler Wagner, Damien Magnifico, and Miguel Diaz have legitimate big-league potential (to varying degrees and with different timelines, of course) and couldn’t crack either of the lists. Those will certainly feel like oversights to some people, but it’s really splitting hairs whether someone is ranked No. 17 or No. 23. The real takeaway is the fact that the Brewers have enough depth to have 20-plus prospects with legitimate big-league potential.

And given the fact that David Stearns has already shown a willingness to move Major League players for prospects, the full-blown rebuilding process in Milwaukee has a chance to be less painful than the one that happened in Chicago or Houston. A fan can’t ask for anything more than that.

On January 19, 2015, Milwaukee dealt Gallardo to Texas for three prospects: shortstop Luis Sardinas, reliever Corey Knebel, and right-hander Marcos Diplan. Both Sardinas, a strong defender who could develop into a useful utility infielder, and Knebel, a hard-throwing righty with back-of-the-bullpen potential, have split time this season between Milwaukee and Triple-A Colorado Springs. One day the Brewers will return to playoff contention, and there is no reason to think that Sardinas, 22, and Knebel, 23, cannot be part of that revival. For the Gallardo deal to pay huge dividends, however, 18-year-old starter Marcos Diplan must fulfill his enormous potential.

*****

When BP Milwaukee’s Derek Harvey profiled Diplan for Brew Crew Ball in January, fans knew little about the young right-hander their club had acquired. Born September 18, 1996, in Santiago de los Caballo, Dominican Republic, Diplan signed with the Rangers on July 2, 2013 for $1.3 million. As a 16-year-old, he was widely regarded as the top pitching prospect in the 2013 international class. At 6-feet tall and 160 pounds, with room to grow and a fastball that touched 95, Diplan drew lofty comparisons to another shorter-than-average Dominican right-hander named Pedro Martinez. (Brewers fans can wistfully dream on that comp for a few years.) In 2014, Diplan compiled a 7-2 record and 1.54 ERA in 13 starts with the Rangers’ DSL team, racking up 57 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. He also yielded 36 walks, which translates to a bloated 5.04 BB/9 ratio — an eye-popping number in light of his 1.06 WHIP. DSL batters, it seems, drew free passes from Diplan rather than try to hit him.

Following the trade, Diplan reported to extended spring training, where the Brewers got a much closer look at their young pitcher. Club officials liked what they saw, for Diplan skipped the Arizona Rookie League and received an aggressive assignment to Helena, Milwaukee’s short-season affiliate in the Pioneer League. Reid Nichols, Director of Player Development for the Brewers, offered both a positive assessment of Diplan and a simple goal for the youngster. “He has a big arm,” Nichols told me, “but he just needs some time. For now, he needs to learn to pitch down” in the strike zone.

In the fifth inning of his second start with Helena, a June 24 game at Missoula, Diplan encountered some adversity that called for reinforcement of that simple message. With the Brewers leading 2-0, Diplan surrendered a pair of solo home runs.

“He reacted like you’d expect from a young pitcher,” Helena manager Tony Diggs told me. “He had that look on his face like ‘What am I doing wrong?’” Pitching coach Rolando Valles made a trip to the mound. “They had a quick conversation,” Diggs recalled. “Rolando reminded him to work back down in the zone, and after that he kept the ball down.”

Diplan escaped the fifth and made it through seven innings. His final line was 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. Additionally, seven outs came via the ground ball. This constituted an improvement over his first start on June 19, also against Missoula, when he struck out eight and got the win, but lasted only five innings — in part because he walked four and induced only three groundouts. It is a very small sample, but one can hope that Diplan’s early results, bolstered by a consistent, organizational approach to his development — pitch down – auger well for his future as a starter.

In a sport whose educators are charged with turning teenagers into professionals, a player’s “makeup” — a term that encompasses a variety of intangibles — becomes part of his scouting report. According to his manager, Diplan is “a good kid, grounded, and very coachable.” This impression stems not only from his brief time in Helena but from extended spring training, where Diggs also had a chance to spend time with Diplan.

Diggs added that as the youngster worked to improve his mechanics he also was developing an understanding of how to pitch. “There’s no panic,” Diggs said of Diplan. “I saw in extended spring that he keeps his poise even when he doesn’t have his great stuff. He goes through the same routine, pitches at the same tempo.” Like pitch location, poise and tempo helped Diplan move past those two home runs against Missoula and finish seven strong innings.

To succeed as a starter in the majors, Diplan will need not only excellent mechanics and makeup but a starter’s repertoire. “He has three pitches,” Diggs told me, “and he commands two of them.” The early results suggest what Diggs confirmed: Diplan has great command of his fastball and curve, but that third pitch — in this case the changeup — is where the rubber meets the road for a starter. “He projects well,” Diggs said. “I think he’s going to be a major-league starter.” Still, when asked about Diplan’s weaknesses, Diggs was quick to note that the changeup must get better. There’s time for that, of course.

Indeed, his exceptional talent notwithstanding, Diplan’s biggest advantage might be time itself. At 18, he is the third-youngest pitcher in the Pioneer League. Assuming he continues to develop, he should receive his first taste of full-season ball in 2016. From there, it is not unreasonable to think that he might get a late-season callup as early as 2018, or that he could win a rotation spot by 2019 or 2020.

At that point, Brewers fans would have every reason to hope that their young pitcher, acquired as a teenager, mentored and developed with a consistent approach through every level of the organization, will spend the next decade of his career helping them forget about 2015.

SS Orlando Arcia

Arcia has blossomed into a bona fide top-100 prospect, if not more. He’s hitting .308/.351/.448 with four homers and eight stolen bases for Double-A Biloxi, and his defense has also gotten rave reviews from scouts. He’s a well-rounded hitter with sneaky pop, which should allow him to wear out the outfield gaps with 25+ doubles per year down the road. The most encouraging piece of Arcia’s development is that he has not only handled the most arduous jump in minor-league baseball (from High-A to Double-A), but that he’s also improved in the process. The 20-year-old is hitting for more power than ever before, while keeping his strikeout rate at just 12.2 percent.

One of the other things that stands out about Arcia is his mentality on the diamond. I’ve seen the shortstop perform drills in big-league camp in spring as a teenager, and he held his own. The pressure of playing with superstars like Ryan Braun didn’t faze him. He looked like he belonged; moreover, it looked as if he thought he belonged. Arcia has a bit of swagger that one desires from prized recruits. I talked to a former major-leaguer with the Brewers a couple years ago who readily sang his praises. This isn’t to suggest that the young man is poised for super-stardom at the major-league level. It is, though, to suggest that he should hold his own in the majors — which is a massive compliment in itself for a youngster in Double-A. He has a chance to be a first-division starter, too, if everything breaks right.

OF Michael Reed

Long-time readers know that I’ve pegged Reed as a future major-leaguer for a couple years. I’ve primarily seen his future role as a potential fourth outfielder, but the former fifth-round draft pick has taken a massive step forward this year and now has some scouts believing he could develop into an everyday player. He’s hitting .293/.379/.453 with five homers and 20 stolen bases with Double-A Biloxi and has pounded out 17 additional extra-base hits. The hope is that he can reach the double-digit homer plateau and mature into an above-average defensive corner outfielder with just enough pop to carry the position — something that is more acceptable in today’s depressed offensive era. The ultimate upside is perhaps what Jason Heyward has done the past couple years, with a few more strikeouts and less defensive value. Still, Reed has a high baseball IQ and is really hitting his stride as a professional baseball player. There’s a lot to like here.

RHP Marcos Diplan

This site has already talked a bit about Diplan — with a more in-depth article to come, actually — but the right-hander has flashed big-time stuff in the Pioneer League. His fastball runs into the mid-90s, and his curveball has above-average potential. His future success is dependent upon the development of his command, per usual, and his fringy changeup. He doesn’t have much margin for error to be successful a starter, as he only stands six-feet tall and doesn’t appear to have the build to handle a high workload; however, the early returns on the stuff have been electric. This is his first season in the states, as he pitched in the Dominican Summer League with the Texas Rangers in 2014, but Brewers fans should be elated. Expect to see much more on Diplan next week.

THREE TRENDING DOWN

RHP Taylor Williams

Last autumn, Williams capped off a banner season with brilliant performances in instructionals. One non-Brewers scout even opined that he was the best arm in Milwaukee’s system, markedly better than Devin Williams and Kodi Medeiros. The right-hander touched the upper-90s with an above-average slider and a changeup that flashed potential. The biggest concern with Taylor Williams has always been his short stature, as he’s generously listed at 5-foot-11, and the high level of stress in his delivery. It’s primarily the reason why scouts have boxed him into a reliever role, but his quality performance in the regular season last year and his much-hyped instructionals had many wondering if he could develop into something more.

It has been a lost season for Williams. He’s been dealing with a right forearm injury, which is traditionally connected to elbow problems and often is a precursor to Tommy John surgery. The latest information regarding Williams’s injury is that it’s just a forearm, and not an elbow injury, but he has yet to return to the mound. The fact that it hasn’t improved is further evidence that the true issue could reside in his elbow. If that’s the case, not only does it significantly hinder his path to the big-leagues, but it validates many of the durability questions that have plagued him. People don’t like when pitchers with quality stats and above-average stuff are denigrated for having a “bad body,” but Brewers fans have recently been through this dance with Tyler Thornburg. Pitchers under six-feet have a problem getting good downward plane on their pitches and particularly struggle with the heavy workload of starting. Even the quintessential counterexample, Tim Lincecum, has become a shell of himself in recent years. Short pitchers like Williams have many obstacles to overcome, and his injury issues indicate that a back-end relief role may be his best future position.

OF Monte Harrison

Although Harrison was the Brewers’ third selection in the 2014 draft, he came with the most excitement. Expectations rose when he hit .261/.402/.339 with 32 stolen bases as an 18-year-old in 2014. However, the former football standout hasn’t performed well this year. In 46 games with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Class-A), he hit .148/.246/.247 with a massive 41.8-percent strikeout rate. The common aphorism is that one shouldn’t scout the box score, but it’s not difficult to ascertain that the Midwest League overwhelmed Harrison. Since returning to Helena, things haven’t gotten much better. He’s hitting .186/.314/.395 with a pair of homers and three stolen bases in 12 games.

It must be recognized that raw 19-year-old prospects often struggle in every organization and at every level. It’s not uncommon. Our own Michael Schwarz illustrated that beautifully in his piece last week. However, it has become readily apparent that Harrison is a long-term project and not one that will rocket up the system. Brewers fans must be patient. One scout tried to temper my optimism in the spring, saying that one really had to dream in order to see what Harrison could become down the road, as he’s far too raw. Expect his performance to improve in the Pioneer League this summer; however, the early-season optimism surrounding Harrison and his potential path to the big leagues has crashed back to earth. He remains a top-10 prospect, to be sure, but the road ahead is much longer than expected.

RHP Brandon Woodruff

Woodruff, a 6-foot-2 fireballer from Mississippi State, had a bit of helium coming into the 2015 season. He impressed scouts in the instructional league last autumn, flashing three at-least-average pitches with his fastball, curveball, and changeup. The Brewers gambled on his arm strength out of college, as he’s always struggled with command and consistency; however, his late-season performance in 2014 encouraged the organization. For this reason, the organization pushed Woodruff to High-A Brevard County this season.

Unfortunately, though, his success hasn’t carried over. Through 13 starts and 71.0 innings, the right-hander owns a 4.06 ERA with a measly 11.8-percent strikeout rate, which is highly unusual given his power profile. His two most-recent outings have been better — with just two earned runs allowed in 14 innings — but the overarching concerns don’t dissipate because of two starts. The silver lining is that Woodruff has always profiled best in the bullpen. The Brewers prefer to keep their power-relief prospects in the rotation at the lower levels of the minors, in an effort to build their arm strength and their secondary offerings, so Woodruff’s developmental path isn’t necessarily off-track. In fact, it mirrors the Brewers’ treatment of David Goforth a couple years ago — keep him in the rotation until Double-A for the aforementioned reasons, then transition him to the bullpen to specialize his development.

Placing Brandon Woodruff in the “trending down” section isn’t necessarily a reflection on his big-league potential. He’s still possesses the ability, with his fastball-curveball combination, to be a reliever in the majors. What has changed, however, is the excitement surrounding him after his performance during instructs last autumn. Some scouts and some within the organization hoped that he turned a corner. Those hopes seem to have faded for the moment.

NEWS AND NOTES

• Shortstop Orlando Arcia will represent the Milwaukee Brewers and his home-country of Venezuela in the annual Future’s Game. In the past, it has been broadcast on ESPN2 and MLB.com, so many fans will get their first glimpse at the Brewers’ number-one prospect. If he performs well in pre-game drills or during the game, his national attention should explode. That is one of the effects of the Future’s Game, after all. It places dozens of national writers in the same place to watch and hype the best prospects in the league. If a guy performs well on that given day, his national stock explodes.
• The Brewers have promoted shortstop Blake Allemand to Class-A Wisconsin. Allemand — a polished college senior — hit .365/.411/.442 with three stolen bases through 12 games. Draft experts praised the Brewers for selecting Allemand in the fifth round of last month’s draft, suggesting that he could move quickly through the Brewers’ system. That has proven accurate in just the first two weeks of his professional career. The former Texas A&M standout best profiles as a utility infielder down the road, and while that may not excite the average fan, getting that type of potential from a senior-sign who only commanded a $40k bonus would be a huge win for the organization.
• Right-hander Cody Ponce also got the call to Class-A Wisconsin. We discussed him a bit on Monday. I have yet to see Ponce throw this year, but early reports from scouts are positive.