Midseason 2016 #1
Midseason 2016 #2
Midseason 2016 #3
April 2017

Three Up

RHP Corbin Burnes, AA Biloxi Shuckers
No pitching prospect in Milwaukee’s system has performed better than Burnes this year. He began the season with Class Advanced-A Carolina Mudcats, but after tossing an even 60.0 innings and letting in a scant 1.05 ERA/1.66 DRA, the right-handed hurler earned a promotion to Class-AA Biloxi. He debuted there last night with 3.7 scoreless, hitless innings with a walk and four strikeouts before rain wound up shortening his start. A 4th-round pick in last year’s draft, Burnes is the first player from Milwaukee’s class to reach the AA level. Mark Anderson called Burnes a “number four starter in the making” in a recent minor league update, praising his “electric” arm speed, above-average fastball, and three improving secondary pitches.

Related reading:
To his friends he’s known as Corbin, but to you it’s Mr. Burns

RHP Trey Supak, high-A Carolina Mudcats
When the Brewers decided to bump Burnes up to AA, Supak was also a beneficiary as he was promoted from Wisconsin to Carolina to back fill the rotation spot. He certainly deserved the elevation based on his performance with the Timber Rattlers, as he authored a 1.76 ERA/2.36 DRA across 41.0 innings with 53 punchouts against just 10 walks and 21 base hits allowed. He got roughed up a bit in his debut with Carolina (4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 7:1 K/BB), but with promising command projection and a durable frame, he’ll have the chance to develop into a number four or five starter before it’s all said and done. (Jason Rogers is hitting .270/.317/.420 in 46 games for Pittsburgh’s AAA affiliate after being outrighted off the 40 man roster).

Related reading:

Hot Soup

RHP Brandon Woodruff, AAA Colorado Springs

Woodruff broke out in a big way last season, capturing Milwaukee’s minor league pitcher of the year award after posting a 2.68 ERA and leading the minor leagues with 173 strikeouts in 158.0 innings between high-A and AA. He’s only continued to improve his stock with a strong season in the extreme hitter-friendly environs of Colorado Springs. In 56.3 innings for the Sky Sox, he’s worked to a 3.04 ERA but with an impressive 1.97 DRA. The strikeout rate is down a skosh, but he’s limiting walks and generating plenty of ground balls to make up for it. Armed with a plus fastball and a slider that’s been called his “out pitch,” Woodruff may have leapfrogged Josh Hader as the first prospect arm that could get an extended trial in the big leagues this season.

Brandon Woodruff 3 K's. 1st/3rd pitches were 97 in Nashville gun. #SkySox pic.twitter.com/DXtDlvAIi1

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) May 29, 2017

Three Down

LHP Josh Hader, AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox
Hader made his Class-AAA debut with Colorado Springs last season and though he struggled to prevent runs in a tough pitching environment, his peripherals were still strong. That has not been the case this year. In 50.0 innings Hader has coughed up a 5.58 ERA; by Deserved Run Average, his 10.04 (!!!) mark leaves him as the 5th-worst qualified AAA pitcher this season. He’s allowing two and a half homers per nine innings, is walking almost five and half batters per nine, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 11.5 K/9 to 8.5 K/9. The Brewers still view him as a future rotation piece, but the funky arm-slot and regression with his already fringey command may wind up making a future relief role that much more likely.

OF Michael Reed, AA Biloxi Shuckers
At one time, strong on-base skills and defensive versatility had scouts pegging Reed as a future oft-used reserve outfielder or fringe regular at the big league level. He’s gotten a couple of brief looks in The Show, but the the acquisition of several new outfield prospects pushed the 24 year old down the depth chart and he found himself back in AA this season after a middling year with Colorado Springs last year. Reed has shown some power and is drawing walks at a good clip in the Southern League, but he is batting only .215 and has struck out in more than 29 percent of his plate appearances, by far the highest total in any of his minor league seasons. Given the fact that he’s been repeatedly passed over for call-ups while Milwaukee is currently playing with only two true outfielders on the big league roster, one has to wonder how much longer the Brewers will carry Reed on the 40-man.

3B Lucas Erceg, high-A Carolina Mudcats
Last year’s outstanding performance between rookie ball and the Midwest League left many optimistic that 2016 2nd-rounder would be a fast-rising prospect through Milwaukee’s system. Erceg has slowed down quite a bit during his first exposure to the Carolina League this year, however. Through 47 games the 22 year old owns a meager .216/.259/.342 slash, though he has popped five home runs over the fence. Erceg has continued the trend of low walk rates that we’ve seen early in his career, which may mean that he won’t be much of an OBP threat as he progresses. As my colleague Nicholas Zettel has noted, Erceg has faced some pretty tough competition in high-A, and given his age and pedigree it’s probably a bit premature to start freaking out about the longer-term projections. Erceg’s pronounced struggles do make it seem rather unlikely that he’ll see AA ball this year though, as many hoped that he would.

Related Article:
2016 Southern League bats

So we continue with the Pacific Coast League variation of the contextual minor league statistics for Milwaukee Brewers prospects. I began this series in order to judge each player within his own age group within his own league, in order to keep players in groups that are more likely to fit their own developmental standpoints. For instance, Orlando Arcia ought not to be judged on the same scale as a Garin Cecchini or Will Middlebrooks, two players with MLB experience that are receiving a second chance in the Brewers organization; while those two might be judged moreso on their ability to get back into the grove and produce quality outcomes on the plate, a prospect at Arcia’s age and developmental standpoint may be more likely to work on improving one specific aspect of his game. In fact, for his age-21 season, Arcia completely shifted his strike zone discipline, improving his walk rate significantly, while also striking out more; for all the complaints about the rookie’s slow-rising batting line and .212 TAv, Arcia is already posting a walk rate that has hovered around 10 percent since leaping to the majors. So, a project such as “improving plate discipline” could help to explain why other areas of Arcia’s bat “took a step back” in 2016.

Not unlike the Southern League, a wide variety of professional ballplayers work in the Pacific Coast League. Many second-chance MLB players work in the most advanced minor league level, giving the Pacific Coast League the look of an organizational depth association. Yet, a few supremely young players rush through, and there are even organizational depth players that remain young for AAA (such as Garrett Cooper, for instance, who is “old” for AA and “young” for AAA).

Not surprisingly, isolating players with more than 5 PA, there are many different performance levels, age-by-age, on the Pacific Coast:

While it does not necessarily seem surprising that the youngest players in the league lack slugging numbers, or overall offensive performances that match the general impression that the PCL is a “free-for-all,” it was surprising to see how quickly the slugging tails off after age-25. Slugging percentage jumps once more at age-27, but then players working in the PCL between age-28 and age-35 seasons generally do not provide large slugging totals for their work. Hypothetically, one might guess that if a player is at age-28 and slugging effectively, they get their chance to work at the MLB level, while glovemen or bat-control depth guys are more likely to work their late-20s seasons at AAA; this is only one possible explanation.

By my count, the Brewers organization featured 15 players at AAA Colorado Springs that had rookie status entering the year. The vast majority of these players were young or relatively young for Class-AAA ball.

A few notes:

• Without any regular age-19 or -20 bats in the Pacific Coast League, Arcia was basically tied for the youngest regular position player in the league (with Padres’ top prospect, Manuel Margot, who had one of the best seasons in the entire PCL).

• Contrary to popular belief, Arcia showed excellent discipline and excellent isolated power for his age group.

• Garrett Cooper had a surprisingly good batting line, which I did not expect given my assumption that older players would be held to harsher performance criteria at AAA.

• Lewis Brinson really stormed the league in his Brewers debut!

• While Brewers fans commonly focused on his MLB struggles, Keon Broxton put together a great AAA campaign, even (especially?) for the league’s median age.

• Kyle Wren did nothing but hit in 2016, but he lacks isolated power behind his strong AVG and OBP totals. One wonders whether he’ll get his MLB shot in Milwaukee, given the stacked tools situated in the crowded Brewers outfield.

• Garin Cecchini produced a solid line for his age group, although the slugging did not come for the second-chance rookie. Cecchini could potentially profile as a contact-discipline depth player, but the lack of power could hurt a corner-defense profile.

• BPMilwaukee featured Nate Orf as one of the Three-Up players at midseason, given his batting profile and utility glove. Hopefully Orf makes it to the MLB!

• One wonders whether Yadiel Rivera and Ramon Flores will stick around in the organization for their respective gloves; unfortunately, their bats did not come around in 2016.

The club decided this past week that they had seen enough of Broxton in the early going after he had gone hitless in his first 16 at-bats while striking out 11 times. To replace him, Slingin’ David Stearns purchased the contract of spring non-roster invitee Alex Presley from AAA. Stearns is familiar with the left-handed swinging Presley from his days in Houston, and the outfielder was off to a fine start with the Sky Sox. Presley is already 30, though, and owns just a .260/.299/.394 batting line in 330 career big league games; not at all someone who provides much upside or is likely to be with the team for the long-term; not to mention the fact that now all three center field options bat left-handed.

In selecting Presley the Brewers passed over a much more obvious candidate to take reps in center field in Michael Reed. The club’s fifth round pick back in 2011 was already on the 40 man roster (where Presley needed to be added after Zack Jones was shifted to the 60-day DL), he bats right-handed, and the homegrown prospect appears ready for an extended big-league trial.

BP ranked the 23 year old was ranked as Milwaukee’s 19th-best prospect coming into this season. Reed’s most outstanding tool is his eye-popping on base ability, as evidenced by his career .377 OBP and 14% walk rate in six minor league seasons. He’s a threat on the basepaths as well, having swiped at least 25 bags in each of the last three seasons, and already with five steals to his credit through 10 games in Colorado Springs.

Reed’s not without his warts, of course. He’s had a bit of a problem with strikeouts coming up through the farm system, though he has been able to at least cut his K rate down to around the 19-20 percent range in recent seasons. This will likely result in middling batting averages for Reed at the big league level, though his high walk total helps mitigate that.

Reed doesn’t offer much power, either, with just 12 home runs to his career ledger. He’s got an ISO of just .027 so far in Colorado Springs this season, though his career mark of .114 is a bit more palatable. He made some strides in that area last season, slugging a career-best 45 extra base hits between AA and AAA last season while hitting .269/.371/.410.

There’s also the matter of defense. Reed has only appeared in center field 77 time over six seasons and just once so far in 2016. However this may have more to do with the fact that he was often a teammate of the defensively gifted Tyrone Taylor than anything else. Reed has above-average speed and a 60 grade arm that plays well in right, so he should certainly have the tools to play a capable center field at the big league level.

I've been arguing for reed for a while now. He's their best option for CF. https://t.co/OjleneotQa

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) April 19, 2016

Reed is off to an excellent .378/.452/.405 start with five steals in 10 games for the Sky Sox so far this season. While some think that his ceiling will ultimately be that of a fourth outfielder due to his lack of power, there’s no better time to see if fringy prospects can grab a bigger role than projected than in year one of a rebuild.

Of the current slate center field options, it’s arguable that Reed possesses the highest potential upside, minus perhaps the injured Rymer Liriano (who at this point remains without a timetable for his return from facial fractures). Reed should therefore get a legitimate audition to cement his role in The Show before the next crop of outfielder prospects, lead by Brett Phillips, starts pushing for big league playing time. We’ll most definitely be seeing Reed in Milwaukee this season, but the Brewers should give him a his chance sooner rather than later.

Of course, Melvin didn’t always struggle in this facet of management. The first five years of his tenure (2003-2007) saw the Brewers draft Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy, among others. Those players combined with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall — whom the team had selected in the pre-Melvin seasons — to form a strong nucleus that helped the club make playoff runs in 2008 and 2011.

After that, however, the prospect well dried up — such that, for five years running, the Brewers have placed in the bottom five of BP’s organizational rankings:

[Note: These rankings began in 2008.]

With the aforementioned core heading to the Major Leagues, Milwaukee sorely needed to replenish its system. Melvin responded with the opposite due to the club’s competitive window. In deals for CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum, he sent away Matt LaPorta, Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffess, and Brett Lawrie. Some of those players didn’t end up accomplishing much, but the prosperity of some of them — particularly Brantley and Cain, each of whom has played at a borderline-MVP level in the past couple years — have made many fans regret the trades retrospectively.

Inadequate drafting compounded the woes of those deals. Jack noted in his piece that the club’s picks from later years haven’t yet amounted to much. Over the past few years, teams such as the Rangers have managed to maintain a solid minor-league system despite swinging big trades, and they’ve done so by constantly restocking their affiliates through the draft and international free agency. Part of that is good scouting, too, while part of that is a willingness to spend money. Melvin’s Brewers partook in the former half of the equation while neglecting the latter half, though, and it has come back to haunt them.

With that said, Milwaukee has made recent strides. BP’s writeup of the farm system stated that it possessed “talent to makes several teams quite jealous” — a massive improvement from its standing over the past several seasons. After spending the first half of the decade in the minor-league cellar, the 2015 Brewers have taken the necessary steps to move back up to the top half.

Part of this, in fairness, happened before this year. In August, Julien Assouline analyzed the team’s drafts under Melvin, who had perhaps not received the credit he deserved. Some of Melvin’s strengths there stem from the early years, but even in the later part of his run with the Brewers, they fared moderately well. Derek Harvey commented that the club’s drafts from 2009 to 2014, under late scouting director Bruce Seid, provided them with numerous quality players that presently stock their system. Indeed, of the top-20 current Milwaukee prospects, eight — Jorge Lopez, Devin Williams, Monte Harrison, Tyrone Taylor, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeiros, Yadiel Rivera, and Michael Reed — came from drafts during that span, while Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara signed with the team as amateur free agents in that period.

Still, an improvement of this magnitude, and in this short a span, suggests something different in the past twelve months. Part of the difference stems from the 2015 draft, which has (to this point) yielded incredible rewards. Four of those top-20 prospects came to the team in June: Trent Clark, Cody Ponce, Demi Orimoloye, and Nathan Kirby. Clark stands out as the best of the bunch, but all four have intriguing upside and could continue to blossom further. New scouting director Ray Montgomery, as Harvey observed, seems to have taken off.

The team’s decision to finally rebuild has helped with that. July saw them deal away established starters Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, and Jonathan Broxton, as well as (relative) stars Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. Those trades — which, as J.P. Breen correctly posited, meant the team had recognized that its window has closed — brought back a great deal of prospects. Yhonathan Barrios, Zach Davies, Malik Collymore, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser now occupy various levels of the Milwaukee system; Phillips, Davies, Houser, and Hader ranked in the top 20, while Santana has already begun to contribute at The Show. Together with Marcos Diplan, an intriguing top-20 farmhand whom the team acquired in last January’s Yovani Gallardo swap, they amount to a formidable group.

Overall, David Stearns inherited a solid amount of prospects when he became the GM in August. Surveying the trove a couple weeks before Melvin stepped down, Derek Harvey concluded that the system had gone from the bottom to the upper half of the league — a prediction that, as stated previously, we’ve likely seen come true. Stearns didn’t stop there, though. In his four-odd months atop the organization, he’s made several trades to bolster the minor- and major-league depth, further improving the system as a whole.

The first two transactions came in mid-November. Stearns swapped Cy Sneed for the Astros’ Jonathan Villar, then followed that up by shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers in exchange for Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). Seth Victor described Villar at the time as “a good acquisition for a team that needs middle infield depth and flexibility,” a player who won’t make a noticeable difference yet should still provide some value. Betancourt — who rounded out the top 20 — is, in Chris Crawford’s estimation, “a high-floor prospect with a fairly well-defined ceiling.” In other words, he could become a Villar-type player a few years down the road.

After BP published its top-20 list, Stearns has made a few more moves, evidently in an effort to muck up the rankings. First came the Adam Lind trade, which brought back three young pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta. While I can certainly see the logic in Jack’s distaste for the deal — Lind gave us something to cheer for in this dreadful 2015 season, and those players always hurt to lose — I ultimately come down on the side of J.P., who expressed cautious optimism regarding it.

Not long after that, three more prospects came to Milwaukee. The day following Lind’s departure, the Red Sox sold Garin Cecchini to the Brewers for cash considerations. BP’s Bryan Grosnick called the deal “[t]he definition of ‘buying low,'” as a disastrous 2015 had caused Cecchini’s stock to plummet. Likewise, the players Milwaukee snagged in the Rule 5 draft — Colin Walsh from the Athletics and Zack Jones from the Twins — don’t carry elite pedigrees, or much upside, for that matter.

These deals nevertheless give the Brewers plenty of options for 2016 and beyond, as J.P. outlined a few weeks ago. (Plus, the quantity acquired from these transactions only increased thereafter, when the Brewers sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates, receiving Keon Broxton and Trey Supak in return.) Overall, the solid 2015 draft, along with Stearns’s willingness to trade anything not nailed down, has translated to a complete turnaround in Milwaukee’s minor-league system.

What does this mean for 2016? Well, as J.P. pointed out, the Brewers have more routes they can take at the Major League level; although few of those will likely lead to wins, the results should give the team some clarity for 2017. More immediately, it means the Triple-A Sky Sox will presumably play better in 2016. Michael Schwarz explained how that affiliate would progress with legitimate prospects filling its roster. The biggest takeaway here, though, is general optimism. Years and years of no future, at long last, appear to have come to an end. Now, more so than at any point in recent memory, there could be hope on the Milwaukee horizon.

BP Milwaukee is digging deeper into the Brewers’ farm system, though, as Christopher Crawford and the rest of the BP Prospect Team have exclusively provided their No. 11-20 prospects for Milwaukee. The scouting information comes from Crawford (compiled and written by myself), with some of my personal thoughts coming at the end.

11.  Nathan Kirby, LHP
12. Jacob Gatewood, SS
13. Demi Orimoloye, OF

A common refrain in the Brewers’ system, none of the three prospects listed above were a part of the organization two years ago. All are intriguing pieces, but patience will be essential. Kirby was once considered a safe top-five pick before injuries knocked him to the supplemental round. His recent Tommy John surgery pushes his timeline back even further and makes his ugly 5.68 ERA in Class-A rather irrelevant. In truth, he’s not too different from fellow UVA alumni Danny Hultzen, just with a shoulder that’s not decaying.

Gatewood has massive bat speed and plus-plus power potential — as evidenced by his 40 extra-base hits in just 389 at-bats — but the contact issues prevent him from being anything more than a high-value lottery ticket. What’s crazy is that Orimoloye could have more upside than Gatewood. The Brewers’ fourth-round pick has three tools with 60 potential and showed a bit more feel for hitting than expected. He could be a Top-100 prospect by the end of the 2016 season, if his early success carries into the upcoming campaign.

14. Josh Hader, LHP
15. Adrian Houser, RHP
16. Kodi Medeiros, LHP

Hader pitched well in Double-A for the Astros organization this past year, but the left-hander kicked it into a higher gear after moving to Double-A Biloxi. He has an above-average fastball that touches 98 mph and two competent secondary offerings. Although his penchant for missing bats has garnered him a lot of attention from Brewers followers, the arm action remains ugly and difficult to project. That latter piece will unfortunately follow him until he’s able to put together a substantial body of work at the highest level.

Some folks in the industry were most impressed with Houser and his development in the second half. The command and the secondaries come and go, an inconsistency that could force him to the bullpen, but his 2.92 ERA and 4.0 percent walk rate for Double-A Biloxi illustrate the fact that he made some impressive adjustments that could help him stick as a starter if everything continues to progress.

Medeiros isn’t too different from Hader, just a couple levels his junior. The lefty has some strong supporters in the industry who believe in his devastating fastball-slider combination, while some are heavy detractors due to his poor changeup, bad mechanics, and non-ideal size. On the bright side, the 19-year-old handled an aggressive promotion to full-season ball and didn’t allow a single home run in 93.1 innings. He could ultimately be a reliever, but he could be a darn good one.

17. Yadiel Rivera, SS
18. Marcos Diplan, RHP
19. Michael Reed, OF
20. Javier Betancourt, 2B

The final quartet is a mixed bag, with potential bench bats and a talented young pitcher with extreme variance in his potential outcomes. Rivera and Betancourt are glove-first middle infielders (at shortstop and second base, respectively) with little chance to do anything special with the bat. Betancourt has a bit more bat speed and more feel for the barrel, but Rivera is one of the best defensive shortstops in all the minors. While they’re a pair of unexciting prospects, small-market organizations need to develop quality bench players to ensure they don’t have to overspend for them in free agency.

Speaking of homegrown reserves, Reed may be the perfect fourth outfielder. No standout tools and a lack of physical projectability limit his ceiling, but he’s well-rounded, smart, and can provide quality defense in the corner outfield spots. He hit .278/.379/.422 in Double-A. The power needs to take a real step forward, though, if he’s going to stick as an everyday guy.

Diplan is another guy with big stuff and a small body, so all the natural question marks pertain. He posted a 3.75 ERA in 50.1 innings for Helena in the Pioneer League, striking out an impressive 25.7 percent of the batters he faced. At 19 years old and ages away from being anything concrete, he’s a wild card in the system.

BREEN’S TAKE

Although the above list is grouped in three tiers, it should be noted that a significant drop-off exists between Kodi Medeiros and Yadiel Rivera, at least for me. The top-16 prospects can largely be ordered however you’d like. Personal preference matters. I know at least one scout who would push Hader and Houser into the top-10, another who would demand for Orimoloye to be ranked higher, and yet another who would balk at Kirby’s omission from the top-10 list. That’s how these things go, which is why all prospect lists should be read for their content much more than the individual ranking slots.

Still, the future of the Brewers’ system depends on the development of many of these players. If Hader, Houser, and Medeiros ultimately wind up as sure-fire relievers, this list suddenly has a different complexion. Similarly, if Gatewood cuts down the strikeouts and continues to hit for power and Orimoloye enjoys more success in 2016, the Brewers will have a plethora of high-end offensive prospects that should help them shorten their rebuilding process. And if general manager David Stearns bolsters the system with additional trades this winter, things look even more promising.

I believe the most encouraging aspect of Baseball Prospectus’ top-20 Brewers prospects is what is not present. Guys like Clint Coulter, Tyler Wagner, Damien Magnifico, and Miguel Diaz have legitimate big-league potential (to varying degrees and with different timelines, of course) and couldn’t crack either of the lists. Those will certainly feel like oversights to some people, but it’s really splitting hairs whether someone is ranked No. 17 or No. 23. The real takeaway is the fact that the Brewers have enough depth to have 20-plus prospects with legitimate big-league potential.

And given the fact that David Stearns has already shown a willingness to move Major League players for prospects, the full-blown rebuilding process in Milwaukee has a chance to be less painful than the one that happened in Chicago or Houston. A fan can’t ask for anything more than that.

The Saguaros’ Milwaukee contingent consists of four pitchers and four position players, most of whom spent the 2015 minor-league regular season with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, so Brewers fans should see these players at Miller Park within the next two seasons. While top prospect Orlando Arcia will skip the AFL, the Saguaros’ roster does feature plenty of interesting young talent, including three of the four players Milwaukee acquired from Houston in exchange for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers at the 2015 trade deadline.

Outfielder Brett Phillips headlines the group. A sixth-round pick of the Astros in 2012, Phillips entered 2015 as the No. 4 overall prospect in Houston’s loaded minor-league system. In stops at High-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi, he did nothing to dull that luster, swatting 16 homers and swiping 15 bases in 97 games. Phillips’s power-speed combo, coupled with his relative youth — at 21, he remains young for his level — gives him an intriguing ceiling as a future center fielder. Brewers fans will recall that former GM Doug Melvin added starting pitcher Mike Fiers to the Gomez trade in order to acquire Phillips, who, if projections hold, should hit near the top of the Milwaukee lineup for many years, starting perhaps as early as 2017.

Former fifth-round pick Michael Reed is Milwaukee’s other position-player-to-watch this fall. Like Phillips — though perhaps less so — Reed combines the arm strength of a corner outfielder and the speed of a center fielder. Unlike Phillips, Reed was a fringe prospect prior to his solid 2015 campaign at Biloxi, where he slashed .278/.379/.422, stole 25 bases, and earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A Colorado Springs. Although he often hit cleanup for Biloxi, Reed has only 12 homers in 1,533 minor-league at-bats, so he does not project as a middle-of-the-order bat in Milwaukee. The Brewers certainly will make use of Reed’s above-average on-base and baserunning skills, as well as his quality feel for the game, but his lack of power places him behind other outfielders such as Phillips and Domingo Santana. In short, there is no obvious spot for Reed in Milwaukee’s starting-outfield-of-the-future. But a power surge in Arizona could change things in the short term.

Infielders Yadiel Rivera and Nathan Orf round out the Brewers’ position-player contingent at Surprise. Arguably the organization’s best defender, Rivera has the glove and arm strength to play shortstop for the Brewers. If he can replicate the .345 OBP he posted at Biloxi, and if incumbent Jean Segura is traded this offseason, Rivera could find himself in Milwaukee’s starting lineup as early as Opening Day 2016, keeping the seat warm until Orlando Arcia arrives. Orf, meanwhile, has the on-base skills and versatility — he once played all nine positions in a single game for the Brevard County Manatees — to challenge for a future spot on the Major League bench, which would be a remarkable achievement for a 5-foot-9 second baseman who went undrafted out of Baylor despite leading the Bears with a .470 OBP.

The group of four Brewers pitchers on the Saguaros’ roster includes two starters acquired along with Phillips and Santana in the Gomez-Fiers trade, southpaw Josh Hader and right-hander Adrian Houser.

One could make a case for Hader as the most underrated prospect in all of baseball. A nineteenth-round pick in 2012, Hader already has been traded twice, first from Baltimore to Houston in the 2013 deal that sent Bud Norris to the Orioles, and then from Houston to Milwaukee last summer. Scouts continue to express concerns over his durability and secondary offerings, which explains why some view him as a future reliever. Most major publications, therefore, have been conservative in their rankings and careful in their projections of Hader. He has sneaked onto a few organizational top-ten lists but without much helium. The doubts and caution have been understandable to-date, but now, after three full professional seasons, Hader’s age, ceiling, and on-field results justify more bullish, even exuberant expectations. In 2015, Hader, only 21, appeared in 24 games at the Double-A level, including 17 starts, where he compiled a 3.03 ERA in 104 IP with 35 walks and 119 strikeouts. Overall, the walks remain a bit high, but the trend leaves room for optimism. At each minor-league stop where he logged at least seven starts, Hader’s walk rate declined while his strikeout rate improved. The Brewers would be wise not to allow it, but if he were permitted to compete for a rotation spot in 2016 it would not be unreasonable to think he could win it. He should be considered one of the organization’s top-five prospects.

Houser, meanwhile, might be Milwaukee’s fastest-rising prospect on the pitching side. Tagged with the “future back-end starter” label, Houser threw his final pitch of 2014 for the Class-A Midwest League’s Quad Cities River Bandits. He threw the final pitch of his 2015 breakout campaign against the Chicago Cubs at Miller Park. Like Hader, Houser has yet to prove himself at Triple-A, where he should spend most of 2016, but his quick ascent and fine performance at Biloxi (4-1, 2.92 ERA, 32:6 K:BB in 37 IP) make him one to watch.

Relievers Jacob Barnes and Damien Magnifico round out Saguaro’s Milwaukee contingent. After starting 35 games in 2013-14, Barnes thrived following his conversion to relief in late May. Magnifico could be a future back-end reliever for the big-league club.

Late-October baseball means the World Series — exhilarating times for fans of the two remaining clubs and for all who love the game. Late-October baseball also means prospects-on-the-cusp playing in relative anonymity under the bright Arizona sun. For all eight of Milwaukee’s Surprise Saguaros, but especially for youngsters such as Phillips and Hader, a few weeks in the Arizona Fall League provide another opportunity to show Brewers fans that their team’s future could be equally bright.

Brew Crew Ball || On “selfie girls” and alienating your fans

I want to thank Nicole Haase (@NicoleHaase) for writing this piece and putting on Brew Crew Ball, allowing me to talk about this with a Brewers connection. This is an absolute must-read, if there’s ever been one in this space before. It’s time to make a change. I’m going to go in on this issue below, but please don’t take that as an excuse to skip Haase’s brilliant piece. I’m a straight, white, American male; I don’t know a damn thing about being ostracized at a sporting event. I am not the opinion that matters.

On Wednesday, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ TV crew of Bob Brenly and Steve Berthiaume completely embarrassed themselves by spending a full two minutes shaming a group of young ladies for having the audacity to take pictures of themselves during a lull in the action of a thrilling 1-0 game between the third- and last-place teams in the NL West. If you can get through it without rage-quitting I encourage you to watch the entire video of the incident, which is embedded in Haase’s piece, so you can get the full scope of how preposterously sexist these two act.

What is gained by this juvenile, gate-keeping mentality from the Arizona booth? By now, these women have assuredly seen themselves as the story has circulated around social media. We now know that this was a sorority from Arizona State – when it comes time to plan their next group event, I bet “go to a baseball game to be mocked by a regional sports broadcaster and then by the entire internet for being regular people in 2015” is not going to be super high on the priority list. Everyone takes selfies now. One of the last games I attended this year was the September 15th game between Milwaukee and St. Louis. I bet you can guess how that ended, and I would have had to at the end of the evening, because I spent the innings after Ariel Pena was pulled from his first MLB start exploring the wonders of the new Snapchat update with my girlfriend. We left in the eighth inning because it was Tuesday and the Brewers aren’t very good and literally who cares.

Never mind that this whole thing was happening during the between-innings break and the run-up to the first batter of the inning. Never mind that the segment literally begins with a promotion asking fans to take pictures of themselves and send them in. Never mind that while Brenly and Berthiaume are breathlessly lambasting these women for not paying attention to the game, they are also not paying attention to the game, even though doing so is literally their entire job description. Never mind that 15+ (the camera never pans out to show exactly how large the group is, presumably in fear of showing the rows of empty seats not occupied by Real Baseball Fans) women decided of their own free will to show up to a baseball game on a Wednesday in late September to watch two teams who had both long been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. No, never mind all of that. This is baseball, and if you’re going to ignore any part of a baseball game, you had better do in the Real Baseball Fan way — by getting up six times to buy a Miller Lite and fighting a guy because he’s wearing different colored laundry.

And if you want to keep your faith in Brewers fans, stop before you get to the comments section.

Grantland || The Great American Pitching Experiment: Why the Reds Won’t Stop Starting Rookies (Sept. 30, 2015)

Let’s get back to talking about the on-field product. During a September 18-20 series, Milwaukee and Cincinnati did something that hadn’t been done in over 100 years: in their three-game series, every starting pitcher for both teams was a rookie. Results went as one might expect. Two of the weakest offenses in the National League combined for 36 runs on 71 hits. It was part of a larger experiment for the Reds, who haven’t used a non-rookie pitcher since July 28th, while Milwaukee’s reliance on rookie pitching has been due more to extremely poor performance (Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse) and injury (Jimmy Nelson, Wily Peralta).

Of course, the Brewers haven’t been quite so extreme in their use of rookies on the mound. They’ve now used a rookie in 13-straight games as of Thursday night and will almost certainly finish the season with rookies as well, bringing their streak to 17 when it’s all said and done. Extending beyond that, Milwaukee’s starting rotation has been startlingly young for much of the second half of the year, particularly in September – the last Brewers’ starter who’s seen his 27th birthday is Garza, who last pitched during game one of a September 5th double header. Things haven’t gone well at all for the Reds during their rookie-heavy stretch, going 19-40 over that stretch as of Jonah Keri’s writing on Sept. 30, including an active 12-game losing streak that has allowed the Brewers to clinch fourth place (yay) in the NL Central.

FanGraphs || Projecting Milwaukee’s Slew of Late-September Call-Ups (Sept. 25, 2015) (Chris Mitchell)

Chris Mitchell (@_chris_mitchell) spent some time projecting out the first several years of the six prospects who were called up from the Southern League runners-up Biloxi Shuckers last Tuesday. He’s got some encouraging things to say about outfielder Michael Reed and right hander Jorge Lopez, each of whom had breakout seasons in 2015. If we want to get real optimistic with it, we can cherry-pick Bernie Williams and Jordan Zimmerman as comps for Reed and Lopez, respectively, according to Mitchell’s system. Mitchell doesn’t have too much positive to say about the rest of the Biloxi invasion, none of which are highly regarded prospects — Adrian Houser (#27) is the only other of the group on the MLB.com Top 30 prospect list for Milwaukee. He almost completely writes off Yhonathan Barrios, who has impressed during his short audition over the past week — though he fails to mention that Barrios, a converted infielder, has only been pitching for two years.

One prospect that seemingly slides under the radar is Michael Reed. That is a shame, too, because he has raised his stock as much as anyone in the system, relatively speaking. I think the reason Reed gets overlooked is his profile doesn’t fit the prototypical corner outfielder, which combines a special bat with big power. Reed’s hit tool is around average but his home-run power is definitely below average. He tied a career high in home runs this year with five. But Reed brings other advantages.

His combined slash line at Double-A and Triple-A is .269/.371/.410. He also stole 26 bases while getting caught just seven times. He had a 14.1 percent walk rate at Double-A Biloxi and 13.5 percent walk rate in Triple-A Colorado Springs. That level of patience isn’t a fluke either. He’s had well above 10 percent walk rates at every level, save his draft year. So while he may never reach double-digit home run numbers, he does bring a dangerous combination of high on-base skills with potential for 20-30 stolen bases.

In a lot of ways, his profile is reminiscent of former Brewers outfielder Nori Aoki. He’s an above-average defender at the corner, gets on base at a high rate, and supplements his gap power with speed. They can both play center field in a pinch, as well. Michael Reed actually played a lot of center earlier in his minor-league career but has played less the higher he has progressed in the Brewers’ farm system. It’s unclear whether that’s because he is better suited to the corners or if he was supplanted by better defensive teammates like Tyrone Taylor and Kyle Wren.

To me, Michael Reed’s potential ability to play center field is especially interesting. The Brewers don’t have a true center fielder right now. They’ve given the majority of post-Gomez playing time to Domingo Santana, but he’s a corner outfielder all the way. If Reed is a better defender, he immediately becomes a realistic option as a stop-gap until Brett Phillips and/or Tyrone Taylor are ready. If he can play center field even at an average level, he becomes a legitimate regular as the low-power/high-OBP profile plays better there.

Earlier this month the Brewers announced they would be sending Michael Reed to the Arizona Fall League. The Brewers have not traditionally taken the AFL lightly, and his inclusion should be viewed as a vote of confidence in him. Furthermore, news broke late on Monday evening that the Brewers would be calling up Reed and five other players from Double-A Biloxi. Viewed in tandem, I have to wonder if they’ll be giving serious thought to his inclusion on next year’s Opening Day roster.

He has never been a highly-ranked prospect. That’s a mistake by those making the lists (in fairness Keith Law did have him in his top 10 prior to the trade deadline). I don’t think it’s a mistake the Brewers are making. They’ve shown in the past they’ll give these types of unheralded prospects a chance. They did so with Mike Fiers, Khris Davis, and Scooter Gennett. If my hopes are realized, we’ll be adding Michael Reed to that list before next season is finished.

Game suspended due to rain.

Biloxi Shuckers: (14-17), 6.0 GB

RHP Brooks Hall:  (L, 7-7) 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR — 4.70 ERA
LHP Mike Strong:  1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K — 2.59 ERA
2B Nick Shaw:  1-for-3, 2B, RBI, BB, K — .214 AVG
CF Michael Reed:  1-for-2, 2 BB, SB (25), R — .281 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (14-17), 6.5 GB

RHP Javier Salas:  (L, 7-7) 3.2 IP, 8 H, 9 R (7 ER), 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR — 3.93 ERA
RHP Tristan Archer:  4.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K — 4.25 ERA
C Dustin Houle:  1-for-3, K — .333 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (13-19), 11.5 GB

RHP Eric Hanhold:  4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HR — 7.71 ERA
RHP Luke Curtis:  (W, 7-2) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 4.00 ERA
1B Alan Sharkey:  1-for-4, HR (3), 2 RBI, R, K — .245 AVG
LF Francisco Castillo:  2-for-5, 2B, RBI, R — .264 AVG

Helena Brewers: (1-1), — GB

RHP Milton Gomez:  (L, 2-1) 3.0 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 7.75 ERA
LF Troy Stokes:  1-for-2, BB, SB (12), 2 R, K — .245 AVG
SS Jake Gatewood:  1-for-4, 2B, RBI, K — .250 AVG

AZL Brewers: (3-0), — GB

Did not play.

DSL Brewers: (22-29), 13.0 GB

RHP Rodrigo Benoit:  (W, 3-1) 7.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R (3 ER), 2 BB, 7 K — 2.66 ERA
RHP Joaquin De La Cruz:  (S, 2) 2.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K — 5.58 ERA
3B Josue Herrera:  2-for-5, 2B, 3B, RBI, 2 R, 2 K — .232 AVG
2B Julio Mendez:  3-for-5, RBI, SB (6), 2 R, K — .261 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  OF Michael Reed, Biloxi

Reed has garnered a lot of attention in 2015, hitting an impressive .281/.382/.426 in Double-A with 25 stolen bases and five home runs. As mentioned yesterday, he has increased his ceiling from that of a fourth outfielder to perhaps a everyday starter. It was, overall, a boring day on the Brewers farm — which didn’t matter, given the incredible trade drama on Thursday evening — so the Prospect of the Day goes to a guy with a couple walks, a stolen base, and an interesting position change.

On a night when the Brewers agreed, in principle, to move Carlos Gomez to New York, Michael Reed played center field and Tyrone Taylor played right field. It’s not the first time Reed has patrolled center. In fact, he’s done so in eight games this year. Still, it feels strange that one of the more advanced outfield bats in the upper levels suddenly switched positions to the one that would fill a new hole in the big-league roster. Perhaps I’m reading too much into an innocuous position change that was simply meant to expand Reed’s defensive versatility. Or perhaps he’s someone the Brewers view as a potential option in center field for if/when Carlos Gomez leaves Milwaukee. It’s something to track in the coming days.

SS Orlando Arcia

Arcia has blossomed into a bona fide top-100 prospect, if not more. He’s hitting .308/.351/.448 with four homers and eight stolen bases for Double-A Biloxi, and his defense has also gotten rave reviews from scouts. He’s a well-rounded hitter with sneaky pop, which should allow him to wear out the outfield gaps with 25+ doubles per year down the road. The most encouraging piece of Arcia’s development is that he has not only handled the most arduous jump in minor-league baseball (from High-A to Double-A), but that he’s also improved in the process. The 20-year-old is hitting for more power than ever before, while keeping his strikeout rate at just 12.2 percent.

One of the other things that stands out about Arcia is his mentality on the diamond. I’ve seen the shortstop perform drills in big-league camp in spring as a teenager, and he held his own. The pressure of playing with superstars like Ryan Braun didn’t faze him. He looked like he belonged; moreover, it looked as if he thought he belonged. Arcia has a bit of swagger that one desires from prized recruits. I talked to a former major-leaguer with the Brewers a couple years ago who readily sang his praises. This isn’t to suggest that the young man is poised for super-stardom at the major-league level. It is, though, to suggest that he should hold his own in the majors — which is a massive compliment in itself for a youngster in Double-A. He has a chance to be a first-division starter, too, if everything breaks right.

OF Michael Reed

Long-time readers know that I’ve pegged Reed as a future major-leaguer for a couple years. I’ve primarily seen his future role as a potential fourth outfielder, but the former fifth-round draft pick has taken a massive step forward this year and now has some scouts believing he could develop into an everyday player. He’s hitting .293/.379/.453 with five homers and 20 stolen bases with Double-A Biloxi and has pounded out 17 additional extra-base hits. The hope is that he can reach the double-digit homer plateau and mature into an above-average defensive corner outfielder with just enough pop to carry the position — something that is more acceptable in today’s depressed offensive era. The ultimate upside is perhaps what Jason Heyward has done the past couple years, with a few more strikeouts and less defensive value. Still, Reed has a high baseball IQ and is really hitting his stride as a professional baseball player. There’s a lot to like here.

RHP Marcos Diplan

This site has already talked a bit about Diplan — with a more in-depth article to come, actually — but the right-hander has flashed big-time stuff in the Pioneer League. His fastball runs into the mid-90s, and his curveball has above-average potential. His future success is dependent upon the development of his command, per usual, and his fringy changeup. He doesn’t have much margin for error to be successful a starter, as he only stands six-feet tall and doesn’t appear to have the build to handle a high workload; however, the early returns on the stuff have been electric. This is his first season in the states, as he pitched in the Dominican Summer League with the Texas Rangers in 2014, but Brewers fans should be elated. Expect to see much more on Diplan next week.

THREE TRENDING DOWN

RHP Taylor Williams

Last autumn, Williams capped off a banner season with brilliant performances in instructionals. One non-Brewers scout even opined that he was the best arm in Milwaukee’s system, markedly better than Devin Williams and Kodi Medeiros. The right-hander touched the upper-90s with an above-average slider and a changeup that flashed potential. The biggest concern with Taylor Williams has always been his short stature, as he’s generously listed at 5-foot-11, and the high level of stress in his delivery. It’s primarily the reason why scouts have boxed him into a reliever role, but his quality performance in the regular season last year and his much-hyped instructionals had many wondering if he could develop into something more.

It has been a lost season for Williams. He’s been dealing with a right forearm injury, which is traditionally connected to elbow problems and often is a precursor to Tommy John surgery. The latest information regarding Williams’s injury is that it’s just a forearm, and not an elbow injury, but he has yet to return to the mound. The fact that it hasn’t improved is further evidence that the true issue could reside in his elbow. If that’s the case, not only does it significantly hinder his path to the big-leagues, but it validates many of the durability questions that have plagued him. People don’t like when pitchers with quality stats and above-average stuff are denigrated for having a “bad body,” but Brewers fans have recently been through this dance with Tyler Thornburg. Pitchers under six-feet have a problem getting good downward plane on their pitches and particularly struggle with the heavy workload of starting. Even the quintessential counterexample, Tim Lincecum, has become a shell of himself in recent years. Short pitchers like Williams have many obstacles to overcome, and his injury issues indicate that a back-end relief role may be his best future position.

OF Monte Harrison

Although Harrison was the Brewers’ third selection in the 2014 draft, he came with the most excitement. Expectations rose when he hit .261/.402/.339 with 32 stolen bases as an 18-year-old in 2014. However, the former football standout hasn’t performed well this year. In 46 games with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Class-A), he hit .148/.246/.247 with a massive 41.8-percent strikeout rate. The common aphorism is that one shouldn’t scout the box score, but it’s not difficult to ascertain that the Midwest League overwhelmed Harrison. Since returning to Helena, things haven’t gotten much better. He’s hitting .186/.314/.395 with a pair of homers and three stolen bases in 12 games.

It must be recognized that raw 19-year-old prospects often struggle in every organization and at every level. It’s not uncommon. Our own Michael Schwarz illustrated that beautifully in his piece last week. However, it has become readily apparent that Harrison is a long-term project and not one that will rocket up the system. Brewers fans must be patient. One scout tried to temper my optimism in the spring, saying that one really had to dream in order to see what Harrison could become down the road, as he’s far too raw. Expect his performance to improve in the Pioneer League this summer; however, the early-season optimism surrounding Harrison and his potential path to the big leagues has crashed back to earth. He remains a top-10 prospect, to be sure, but the road ahead is much longer than expected.

RHP Brandon Woodruff

Woodruff, a 6-foot-2 fireballer from Mississippi State, had a bit of helium coming into the 2015 season. He impressed scouts in the instructional league last autumn, flashing three at-least-average pitches with his fastball, curveball, and changeup. The Brewers gambled on his arm strength out of college, as he’s always struggled with command and consistency; however, his late-season performance in 2014 encouraged the organization. For this reason, the organization pushed Woodruff to High-A Brevard County this season.

Unfortunately, though, his success hasn’t carried over. Through 13 starts and 71.0 innings, the right-hander owns a 4.06 ERA with a measly 11.8-percent strikeout rate, which is highly unusual given his power profile. His two most-recent outings have been better — with just two earned runs allowed in 14 innings — but the overarching concerns don’t dissipate because of two starts. The silver lining is that Woodruff has always profiled best in the bullpen. The Brewers prefer to keep their power-relief prospects in the rotation at the lower levels of the minors, in an effort to build their arm strength and their secondary offerings, so Woodruff’s developmental path isn’t necessarily off-track. In fact, it mirrors the Brewers’ treatment of David Goforth a couple years ago — keep him in the rotation until Double-A for the aforementioned reasons, then transition him to the bullpen to specialize his development.

Placing Brandon Woodruff in the “trending down” section isn’t necessarily a reflection on his big-league potential. He’s still possesses the ability, with his fastball-curveball combination, to be a reliever in the majors. What has changed, however, is the excitement surrounding him after his performance during instructs last autumn. Some scouts and some within the organization hoped that he turned a corner. Those hopes seem to have faded for the moment.

NEWS AND NOTES

• Shortstop Orlando Arcia will represent the Milwaukee Brewers and his home-country of Venezuela in the annual Future’s Game. In the past, it has been broadcast on ESPN2 and MLB.com, so many fans will get their first glimpse at the Brewers’ number-one prospect. If he performs well in pre-game drills or during the game, his national attention should explode. That is one of the effects of the Future’s Game, after all. It places dozens of national writers in the same place to watch and hype the best prospects in the league. If a guy performs well on that given day, his national stock explodes.
• The Brewers have promoted shortstop Blake Allemand to Class-A Wisconsin. Allemand — a polished college senior — hit .365/.411/.442 with three stolen bases through 12 games. Draft experts praised the Brewers for selecting Allemand in the fifth round of last month’s draft, suggesting that he could move quickly through the Brewers’ system. That has proven accurate in just the first two weeks of his professional career. The former Texas A&M standout best profiles as a utility infielder down the road, and while that may not excite the average fan, getting that type of potential from a senior-sign who only commanded a $40k bonus would be a huge win for the organization.
• Right-hander Cody Ponce also got the call to Class-A Wisconsin. We discussed him a bit on Monday. I have yet to see Ponce throw this year, but early reports from scouts are positive.