Unfortunately these same protections aren’t extended to the minor league players that make up a bulk of the workforce within any MLB organization. It can be a tough life down on the farm, making long road trips by bus, playing 144 games over the course of just five months. It’s only worse when you add in the fact that most players are essentially earning less than minimum wage, and typically bring home a mere $6,000 annually.

Late last week at “The Hardball Times,” Chris Mitchell published a piece surmising that lack competitive pay in the minor leagues may be deterring potential players from pursuing a baseball career. And that’s not just competitive in terms of other athletic careers. Mitchell shows that on average, a minor leaguer could make more money if he had chosen employment as a fast food cook, a dishwasher, or a black-jack dealer. Most players, especially those chosen in the lower rounds that receive negligible signing bonuses, are forced to live paycheck-to-paycheck.

The data shows one side, but players’ voices are often absent. For this feature, I spoke with two professional baseball players, who agreed to share their stories anonymously. One player has minor league experience, while the other has experience in the MLB and minors.

Minor Leaguer:
My signing bonus was a little less than $100,000 but taxes took away a lot, it was only about $60,000 after. But I’ve got most of that invested right now to save for down the road. I do have some in an account that I can use if I really need to, which is important because right now down in extended spring training we don’t even receive a regular paycheck. We get $115 per week of “meal money,” but let’s say you wanted to go to a movie and grab a bite after or something, then you’re already down $30 and still have the rest of the week to get through.

Extended [spring training] is probably harder just because we have to be up at like 5:50-6:00 to get to the field where it’s later for higher up levels, but we work our asses off at the field for 10-12 hours a day. People at McDonald’s make more than us and they’re just sitting behind a cash register.

We are provided hotels to stay in, but it’s basically impossible to go grocery shopping to provide the meals for ourselves. Some teammates and I actually had an argument about it with our training staff and nutritionist. The team expects us to eat well and make sure we’re getting our nutrients, but all of the healthy food that’s good for you is so much more expensive. So it’s difficult to maintain a good diet and most of the guys just end up eating a lot of fast food.

As of right now, my mom is acting as my agent and if I had to pay a real agent, I would be either 1. bankrupt or 2. not be able to support myself at all. In the offseason, I worked at Bath and Body Works stocking shelves from 5:00 a.m. until noon so that I’d be able to have a little bit of walking-around money. At least it didn’t cut into my training schedule and I was still able to work out and condition in the afternoons.

Everything is a factor for us players and our development in baseball: conditioning, eating right, getting enough sleep, stretching, etc. If I didn’t have to worry about money like I do, it would take one more thing off my mind and help sharpen my focus and improve on the field, I have no doubt.

Major Leaguer:
My signing bonus was more than $300,000, but after taxes it came out to only around $200,000. I believe pay scales are preset to each level and you get a $25 per diem on the road that I believe is the same at every level. Paychecks come every other week, when I was in AA I was getting around $700 every two weeks. But after taxes and clubhouse dues, most of the time I was just breaking even or coming in in the negative.

They don’t help with housing at all, so you have to live with roommates. Typically it’s more [roommates than bedrooms] to help lower the living cost, ha. Financially, it’s extremely stressful. It’s an ongoing joke with other players about how we are paid, but at the same time it’s also very frustrating. I was fortunate enough to receive a nice bonus, so I had a little more peace of mind. But for my teammates that were drafted in the later rounds, it was a year long grind. They would have to work their tails off during the offseason, getting other jobs to make ends meet and to try and save up some money to have during the next baseball season since like I said, you’re usually losing money each month during the season.

Now that I’m in the major leagues, the biggest difference is in our diets. It’s nearly impossible to sustain a healthy or consistent diet in the minors due to our low income and a limited amount of restaurants that are open to go to when games are over. I think if more effort was put into helping out that way, it would definitely affect a player’s outlook on the situation. If we saw the team working to get us good food to eat and improve our diets, we would be far more appreciative because we can see them making an effort to contribute to us reaching our full potential. A consistent diet definitely gives us more of an edge as far as performance goes in the big leagues.

***

Editor’s Note: Signing bonus information has been adjusted to protect these players’ identities.

Over the weekend, manager Craig Counsell confirmed that Anderson will be in the opening day rotation, and this statement has some interesting implications. Most importantly for Anderson, this announcement allows the young righty to methodically prepare in spring training without needing to look over his shoulder and wonder if he is pitching for a job. It presents him an ability to focus on developing his repertoire and command in a stress-free environment. In terms of roster construction and player development , though, it confirms that young hurlers Jorge Lopez and Zach Davies are expected to begin the year in Triple-A Colorado Springs. This article will delve into the consequences of that decision.

The most important point here—and the big caveat to the analysis that will follow—is that this decision ultimately makes sense. Neither Lopez nor Davies made a big-league appearance before September last year, so neither of them should have been expecting to break camp with the major-league team. It’s not a shot to the ego. But Nelson, Anderson, and Peralta have all spent various chunks of seasons in the major leagues, so being sent to the minor leagues would certainly be viewed as a demotion.

However, Lopez and Davies may very well be better than at least one of those three — and it wouldn’t be prudent to consider Garza or Jungmann as “sure things” in 2015 — and although Peralta had an impressive debut in 2012, he has compiled a pedestrian 4.11 ERA in the three years and 490.2 innings since his debut. The 26-year-old has posted just 2.0 WARP in over 500 innings, but continues to get opportunities due to the promise of his power sinker-slider arsenal. Anderson, on the other hand, is already 28 but didn’t make his big-league debut until his age-26 season. Nonetheless, his career 4.32 DRA is uninspiring. Even if we acknowledge that pitchers develop at different rates, we have to presume that Anderson is unlikely to tap into some unreached potential at this stage of his career. Finally, Nelson had a nice enough rebound season in 2015, but his 2014 campaign was so disastrous (6.13 DRA in 69.3 innings) that it won’t leave our memory anytime soon.

Both Lopez and Davies are promising youngsters. While there’s no guarantee that either of them will turn out to be mid-rotation starters that could make them an upgrade over Nelson, Anderson, or Peralta, it’s not an unreasonable outcome to expect. Plus, both are nearly (if not already) big-league ready pitchers, so the fact that they’ll likely begin the year in the minors illustrates how the Brewers are truly committed to their current starting five. Or perhaps playing the service-time game. Or both.

We also have to take into account what this decision could do to the confidence of Lopez and Davies. This isn’t to suggest that they’ll be disheartened by the minor-league optioning itself. Rather, it’s more that the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate is in Colorado Springs, which is notoriously hitter-friendly. The ballclub suffers from the same problems that affect the Rockies’ ability to develop pitchers, in that the altitude not only inflates hitters’ numbers but also affects the break on off-speed pitches. Too much time in that environment could do damage to a pitcher’s confidence and development, as the Rockies saw when their Triple-A team was in Colorado Springs. Given the potential of both Lopez and Davies — and even lefty Josh Hader, who will likely join them — the Brewers will want to be sure their young pitchers do not spend too much time in that sort of funhouse-type environment.

An additional factor in their development concerns is that both Lopez and Davies rely on off-speed pitches to be effective. As was mentioned in their scouting reports in the Brewers’ Top-10 list, Lopez possesses an above-average curveball and Davies has an above-average changeup. Given the fact that the environment in Colorado Springs is different from what it is in nearly every other ballpark in which the two will pitch in the majors, too much time trying to adjust could have adverse consequences.

The final consideration here is what this announcement means for their 2016 timing. Presumably, the fact that Counsell announced his rotation so early indicates that this was not a close decision. This means that each of the three “veterans” will have a relatively long leash, so I would guess that neither Lopez nor Davies should expect to get a chance for a couple months, unless an injury forces the organization’s hands. Those couple months in a rebuilding year may not seem like a big deal, after all the team is not trying to win, but leaving the two pitchers in Colorado Springs for an extended period of time could be harmful to their development.

Davies and Lopez are young pitchers who have impressed in the minor leagues and in camp, but Counsell’s recent proclamation that Chase Anderson will be in the rotation indicates that neither of them are likely to break camp with the big-league team. Instead, they will be forced to develop in Colorado Springs, where the altitude can affect breaking pitches and, subsequently, mechanics. This settled rotation, which doesn’t seem like a big deal at the outset, could actually have on-the-mound consequences for both Lopez and Davies, and that will be important to remember as the Brewers develop more pitching prospects at the high ends of the minors.

At their core, prospects are a promise. A promise for a better future. A promise that isn’t tangible, but seemingly isn’t that far away. It is never present. It is always the eternal lingering for a better future. One that is full of hope and happiness.

In this world of instant gratification, the initial reality can either be harsh or filled with exuberance. But that excitement is never quite as high, never quite as anxiety-inducing, as when that prospect makes his Major League debut. And not just any prospect, a top-100 prospect, one that has been analyzed and talked about for years. A prospect where the anticipation and build up is through the roof.

For the Brewers, that excitement might be met this year with the arrival of Orlando Arcia. The shortstop was ranked as the 93rd prospect in Baseball Prospectus’ Top-100 Prospects a year ago. He then jumped all the way to the 31st-best prospect in BP’s midseason Top 50. Plus, as Christopher Crawford and the BP prospect staff pointed out in their write-up of the Top 10 Brewers prospect, Arcia was one of the most improved offensive prospects in all of baseball. Crawford also told me that he expects Arcia to have an impact on the Brewers this season, “I think Arcia will make a significant impact this year. He’s one of the best shortstop prospects in baseball, and he has a chance to have three 60 tools when all is said and done. He’s not Correa or Corey Seager, but he has a great chance to be a really productive up-the-middle player this summer.” The Brewers are probably in for a rough season, but the arrival of Arcia will be a welcomed sight.

That being said, I wanted to look at what one can expect from top-100 prospects. More specifically, how do players who are on the Baseball Prospectus Top-100 rankings perform the same season. Arcia is surely going to end up on the Top-100 list for 2016, among other Brewers, and I wanted to see what one can expect. It didn’t matter whether the prospect had already made his debut, what I was interested in was looking at the prospects performances in the majors that same season. (Example, in 2007 Ryan Braun was ranked 12th in BP’s Top 100. That season he finished with a 5.2 WARP.)  I looked at their performance through WARP and went back to 2007, the first year BP started doing top-100 prospect rankings. I also looked at how many prospects played in the majors, of those who were on the list, and those prospects’ PA and IP. (For the past few years BP’s ranked 101 prospects. Since they haven’t been doing that from the start I only used the top-100 prospects.)

A lot has been written about the 2015 rookie class and just how historically great it was. But what made this class so special was not simply that the average rookie thrived, but that top-ranked prospects hit the ground running. In 2015, Top-100 Prospects averaged .897 WARP, which is the highest since BP started doing these prospect rankings. The second highest came in 2013, at .88 WARP.

Now, since were only looking at nine years of data, some might attribute these results to randomness or fluctuation. Maybe this prospect class really wasn’t conclusively more special than any other year. Crawford, though, would disagree with that: “2015 was definitely a special class, probably the best class I’ve seen in my time covering prospects. I think in those other years we were in more of a transition years — you see a lot of young prospects who were in the lower levels. Really though it’s a case of those classes just being special — particularly last year, these guys could be the building blocks of the league.”

Another interesting element is that on average 44 percent of players who are on the BP top-100 list made an appearance in the big leagues. In 2015, 43 percent of prospects played in the majors and yet they were still able to achieve the best average WARP. In comparison, the 2013 class, the one with the second highest WARP, had 47 percent of prospects play in the big leagues.

Then, I noticed how different the plate appearances were as compared to the innings pitched. The 2015 group had the most plate appearances while the innings pitched took a steep dive in the trend line and are now below average. If there are more plate appearances, it means position players are getting more playing time, meaning they are probably performing at a better rate. I, therefore, wanted to see whether position rookies perform better than pitchers. (If the difference is negative that means pitchers outperformed position players. If it’s positive, that means position players outperformed pitchers.)

These results were truly surprising. There has been a common notion that pitchers perform better earlier than position players. Especially since, if they can’t stick it as a starter, they’ll be put into the bullpen and have success. Well, maybe, that is the case with rookies in general, but for the past few years, that has not been the case for top prospects. Especially for 2015, where position players finished with a WARP of 1.39 compared to the pitchers, who finished with a WARP of .427. On average, there is a .335 difference in favor of position players.

On top of that, it’s not necessarily the case that position players are getting more opportunities than pitchers. In some years they are, but in 2015, for example, 22 pitchers played in the majors, while 21 position players saw time.

Maybe it’s simply the case that pitchers need a little bit more time to adjust or that position players, in general, are more valuable than pitchers. For the most part, that does seem to be true. Position players usually end up with higher WARP scores at the end of the season. Therefore, the .335 average difference may not be that significant. The 1.39 difference of 2015 is, though; it’s a huge difference between values.

This wasn’t just a great class, this was a great class for position players, and one that as Crawford has mentioned could shape the league for years to come.

This seems to bode well for Arcia and the Brewers. Obviously, this isn’t projecting anything, nor is it meant to be. It’s simply a way of looking at how different classes have done. That being said, it might mean that last year’s class was better prepared. It could also mean that these players were truly special talents, which is what Crawford had noted above. The good news is that Arcia does seem to be one of those special talents. It will also be interesting to see where Arcia lands on the Top-100 list this year. Research has shown that the higher up one is on Top-100 rankings, the better chance he has of becoming a great player.

It, also, bodes well for his performance this year. Below I looked at the average WARP by rank, also inserting a logarithmic curve to analyze the distribution of the information.

The distribution does skew more towards the higher ranks, even though it’s definitely not a perfect fit. This was expected, considering how volatile one-year performances can be and due to the sample sizes. It’s hard to get a clear picture. I, therefore, grouped them in buckets of five to see if it would show clearer results, even though the data is now more arbitrary.

Again it’s not perfect, but the moral of the story is that the higher a prospect is on the rankings, the better chance he has of having a quality performance that same year.

This also means it will be interesting to see:

A) How many Brewers prospects will end up on the BP Top 100,

and

B) Where will those prospects be in the rankings.

While I mention these questions, Crawford told me that he doesn’t just expect Arcia to make his mark on the Brewers in 2016, “I think you’ll see Jorge Lopez make an impact, he’s one of the more underrated pitching prospects right now. I also think Zach Davies can be a very solid backend part of the rotation, and he should be ready to contribute right now.” Both players made their debuts last season. It’s, therefore, reasonable to assume they’ll make an impact this year.

What I did find interesting was that Crawford mentioned Lopez as one of the most underrated prospects in baseball. It is true that there isn’t generally a ton of chatter on Lopez, which means he might surprise a few people this upcoming season.

Even though the data showed that pitchers don’t perform as well as position players on the whole, this doesn’t mean Lopez and Davis won’t have success this year. These are individuals and should be treated on a case-by-case basis. The data was purely demonstrating the information on an overall nature. For these prospects, it will depend on how ready they are for the challenges ahead, as well as their talent level. And, when it comes to Lopez, a good evaluator of talent is high on him, which should give the Brewers hope for this upcoming season and the years to come.

It’s pretty clear where the organization is going. They’re not in it to win it. And while that might be depressing, it doesn’t mean there won’t be some interesting and exciting moments. Arcia, Lopez, Davies, and perhaps more prospects will attempt to make their mark, and that’s a reason to be excited for 2016.

BONUS:

Here is a graph of every BP top-100 prospects and where they stand by WARP. Also, the blue represents the rank — the darker the blue, the higher the rank, or the closer it is it one. (For a more interactive version you can click here).

As you can see, Ryan Braun performed extremely well in 2007, when he was ranked as the 12th-best prospect in all of baseball. I’m also pretty sure you can guess who that huge outlier is all the way at the top. If you can’t, it’s Mike Trout, and even his efforts in 2012 were not able to best the prospect class of 2015. For 2015, the best performance went to Kris Bryant.

Of course, Melvin didn’t always struggle in this facet of management. The first five years of his tenure (2003-2007) saw the Brewers draft Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy, among others. Those players combined with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall — whom the team had selected in the pre-Melvin seasons — to form a strong nucleus that helped the club make playoff runs in 2008 and 2011.

After that, however, the prospect well dried up — such that, for five years running, the Brewers have placed in the bottom five of BP’s organizational rankings:

[Note: These rankings began in 2008.]

With the aforementioned core heading to the Major Leagues, Milwaukee sorely needed to replenish its system. Melvin responded with the opposite due to the club’s competitive window. In deals for CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum, he sent away Matt LaPorta, Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffess, and Brett Lawrie. Some of those players didn’t end up accomplishing much, but the prosperity of some of them — particularly Brantley and Cain, each of whom has played at a borderline-MVP level in the past couple years — have made many fans regret the trades retrospectively.

Inadequate drafting compounded the woes of those deals. Jack noted in his piece that the club’s picks from later years haven’t yet amounted to much. Over the past few years, teams such as the Rangers have managed to maintain a solid minor-league system despite swinging big trades, and they’ve done so by constantly restocking their affiliates through the draft and international free agency. Part of that is good scouting, too, while part of that is a willingness to spend money. Melvin’s Brewers partook in the former half of the equation while neglecting the latter half, though, and it has come back to haunt them.

With that said, Milwaukee has made recent strides. BP’s writeup of the farm system stated that it possessed “talent to makes several teams quite jealous” — a massive improvement from its standing over the past several seasons. After spending the first half of the decade in the minor-league cellar, the 2015 Brewers have taken the necessary steps to move back up to the top half.

Part of this, in fairness, happened before this year. In August, Julien Assouline analyzed the team’s drafts under Melvin, who had perhaps not received the credit he deserved. Some of Melvin’s strengths there stem from the early years, but even in the later part of his run with the Brewers, they fared moderately well. Derek Harvey commented that the club’s drafts from 2009 to 2014, under late scouting director Bruce Seid, provided them with numerous quality players that presently stock their system. Indeed, of the top-20 current Milwaukee prospects, eight — Jorge Lopez, Devin Williams, Monte Harrison, Tyrone Taylor, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeiros, Yadiel Rivera, and Michael Reed — came from drafts during that span, while Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara signed with the team as amateur free agents in that period.

Still, an improvement of this magnitude, and in this short a span, suggests something different in the past twelve months. Part of the difference stems from the 2015 draft, which has (to this point) yielded incredible rewards. Four of those top-20 prospects came to the team in June: Trent Clark, Cody Ponce, Demi Orimoloye, and Nathan Kirby. Clark stands out as the best of the bunch, but all four have intriguing upside and could continue to blossom further. New scouting director Ray Montgomery, as Harvey observed, seems to have taken off.

The team’s decision to finally rebuild has helped with that. July saw them deal away established starters Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, and Jonathan Broxton, as well as (relative) stars Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. Those trades — which, as J.P. Breen correctly posited, meant the team had recognized that its window has closed — brought back a great deal of prospects. Yhonathan Barrios, Zach Davies, Malik Collymore, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser now occupy various levels of the Milwaukee system; Phillips, Davies, Houser, and Hader ranked in the top 20, while Santana has already begun to contribute at The Show. Together with Marcos Diplan, an intriguing top-20 farmhand whom the team acquired in last January’s Yovani Gallardo swap, they amount to a formidable group.

Overall, David Stearns inherited a solid amount of prospects when he became the GM in August. Surveying the trove a couple weeks before Melvin stepped down, Derek Harvey concluded that the system had gone from the bottom to the upper half of the league — a prediction that, as stated previously, we’ve likely seen come true. Stearns didn’t stop there, though. In his four-odd months atop the organization, he’s made several trades to bolster the minor- and major-league depth, further improving the system as a whole.

The first two transactions came in mid-November. Stearns swapped Cy Sneed for the Astros’ Jonathan Villar, then followed that up by shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers in exchange for Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). Seth Victor described Villar at the time as “a good acquisition for a team that needs middle infield depth and flexibility,” a player who won’t make a noticeable difference yet should still provide some value. Betancourt — who rounded out the top 20 — is, in Chris Crawford’s estimation, “a high-floor prospect with a fairly well-defined ceiling.” In other words, he could become a Villar-type player a few years down the road.

After BP published its top-20 list, Stearns has made a few more moves, evidently in an effort to muck up the rankings. First came the Adam Lind trade, which brought back three young pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta. While I can certainly see the logic in Jack’s distaste for the deal — Lind gave us something to cheer for in this dreadful 2015 season, and those players always hurt to lose — I ultimately come down on the side of J.P., who expressed cautious optimism regarding it.

Not long after that, three more prospects came to Milwaukee. The day following Lind’s departure, the Red Sox sold Garin Cecchini to the Brewers for cash considerations. BP’s Bryan Grosnick called the deal “[t]he definition of ‘buying low,'” as a disastrous 2015 had caused Cecchini’s stock to plummet. Likewise, the players Milwaukee snagged in the Rule 5 draft — Colin Walsh from the Athletics and Zack Jones from the Twins — don’t carry elite pedigrees, or much upside, for that matter.

These deals nevertheless give the Brewers plenty of options for 2016 and beyond, as J.P. outlined a few weeks ago. (Plus, the quantity acquired from these transactions only increased thereafter, when the Brewers sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates, receiving Keon Broxton and Trey Supak in return.) Overall, the solid 2015 draft, along with Stearns’s willingness to trade anything not nailed down, has translated to a complete turnaround in Milwaukee’s minor-league system.

What does this mean for 2016? Well, as J.P. pointed out, the Brewers have more routes they can take at the Major League level; although few of those will likely lead to wins, the results should give the team some clarity for 2017. More immediately, it means the Triple-A Sky Sox will presumably play better in 2016. Michael Schwarz explained how that affiliate would progress with legitimate prospects filling its roster. The biggest takeaway here, though, is general optimism. Years and years of no future, at long last, appear to have come to an end. Now, more so than at any point in recent memory, there could be hope on the Milwaukee horizon.

From this awkward beginning there followed a mostly forgettable 2015 season in the Rocky Mountains. Like the Brewers, the Sky Sox stumbled out of the gate and never recovered, finishing in last place (62-81) in the Pacific Coast League’s rugged American Northern Division. Worse yet, with so many of the Brewers’ most exciting prospects distributed throughout the lower levels of the minors, the Sky Sox roster for much of the season lacked the sort of impact talent on which fans of the big-league club love to dream.

The 2016 campaign promises to be a different story.

The Biloxi Shuckers, Milwaukee’s Double-A affiliate, overcame a two-month road trip, won the first-half championship in the Southern League’s South Division, and finished the 2015 season with a league-best 78-59 record. Baseball America recently honored the Shuckers with its Minor-League-Team-of-the-Year Award. The rebuilding Brewers have no real incentive to rush their top prospects to the majors, so most of the players who starred at Biloxi in 2015 will likely open 2016 in Colorado Springs, which should make Sky Sox games must-see television for diehard Brewers fans.

Although parent clubs will not set their minor-league rosters until spring, the Sky Sox lineup should feature an interesting cast of position players, led by shortstop Orlando Arcia, who is Milwaukee’s top prospect and one of baseball’s best. Non-roster invitee Will Middlebrooks likely will compete with Jonathan Villar, acquired in November via trade with Houston, for the Brewers’ starting third base job. Both players are out of minor-league options, which means that Arizona Fall League standout Yadiel Rivera could be squeezed off the Major League roster and join Arcia in the Colorado Springs infield, unless he makes the squad as a utility infielder. The same goes for third baseman Garin Cecchini, a former top-10 prospect in the Boston system and also a recent acquisition by new GM David Stearns. With the Brewers infield further crowded by the arrival of Rule 5 pick Colin Walsh, fans in Colorado Springs could enjoy watching Arcia, Rivera, and Cecchini well into the summer.

Michael Reed, who played 38 games with the Sky Sox last season and subsequently received a cup of coffee with the big-league club, should be the top outfield prospect at Colorado Springs — that is, unless center fielders Tyrone Taylor and Brett Phillips arrive, which could happen as early as Opening Day. Meanwhile, fans of prodigious home runs will enjoy watching to see if former first-round pick Victor Roache can get to his raw power with more consistency in the mile-high altitude.

On the mound, Sky Sox fans should get a long look at two of Milwaukee’s best young starters, right-hander Jorge Lopez and southpaw Josh Hader. Lopez made two starts in the majors at the end of 2015 and has an outside chance of breaking camp as the Brewers’ fifth starter in 2016, either by winning the job from incumbent Zach Davies, who then would return to Colorado Springs, or, should the Brewers decide to give disappointing Matt Garza the “Edwin Jackson Treatment” and banish him to long relief, by joining Davies at the back end of a very young rotation. In all likelihood, however, Lopez will join Hader atop a strong Sky Sox rotation that also could include Biloxi standouts Tyler Wagner and Adrian Houser.

Finally, Milwaukee’s closer-of-the-future could emerge from among the Sky Sox relief corps. Arizona Fall League veterans Damien Magnifico, who led the 2015 Shuckers in saves, and Jacob Barnes, who averaged 10.08 strikeouts per nine innings with Biloxi, along with flame-throwing righty Yhonathan Barrios (acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline for Aramis Ramirez) could comprise a young and formidable back end of the Colorado Springs bullpen.

The Pacific Coast League in general tends to produce inflated offensive numbers, and Colorado Springs in particular presents many of the same challenges that have frustrated Rockies pitchers in Denver for more than twenty years. Brewers fans, therefore, should avoid drawing conclusions about prospects from their Triple-A statistics. Taylor Jungmann, for instance, compiled a dreadful 6.37 ERA in 11 appearances (nine starts) with the Sky Sox before receiving a promotion to Milwaukee. In the majors, he posted a solid 3.77 ERA in 21 starts and became arguably the club’s most pleasant surprise at the big-league level in 2015.

Instead, fans should watch how the new Sky Sox compete, how well they play together, and how much they enjoy doing it. Scouts and other team officials tend to emphasize player development rather than minor-league win-loss records, and with good reason. Preparing prospects for the Major Leagues has always been a minor-league staff’s first priority, and mid-season promotions often wreak havoc on affiliates’ rosters, particularly the successful ones, which makes winning more difficult. On the other hand, good players who play well together tend to win more games, whereas affiliates of parent clubs with weak minor-league systems often lose more games than they win. In 2015, for instance, only the Angels’ affiliate in Salt Lake City and the Marlins’ affiliate in New Orleans lost more PCL games than the Sky Sox. It is no coincidence that those two clubs, the Angels and Marlins, have two of the weakest overall systems in baseball.  

Winning at the Triple-A level, therefore, is not the ultimate goal, but it can be one measure of a system’s overall health. While the 2015 Sky Sox finished 23.5 games out of first place, the American Northern Division’s other three teams produced three of the four best overall records in the 16-team PCL. Oklahoma City, Iowa, and Omaha finished a combined 60 games over .500. Oklahoma City is the Triple-A affiliate of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who boast arguably the top minor-league system in baseball and most certainly three of its top prospects in Corey Seager, Julio Urias, and Jose De Leon. Likewise, Iowa (Cubs) and Omaha (Royals) have helped develop players for two of the most talented rosters in the majors. A much-improved Colorado Springs squad, therefore, will have the opportunity to test its mettle by competing in one of the strongest divisions in all the minors. Considering that many of the best players on the Sky Sox roster will find their way to Miller Park by 2017, that competition should be well worth watching.

Of course the big-league club will always be the feature attraction, so fans hopefully will enjoy cheering on the rebuilding Brewers in 2016. On those long summer nights, however, when frustrations mount and the Milwaukee bullpen is active by the third inning, do yourself a favor, get the MiLB.TV minor-league package, and check out the Sky Sox game. Help, you will see, is on the way.

Team officials noticed.

Tom Flanagan, Milwaukee’s new Farm Director, remembers that Hader “really made an impression on the Biloxi staff” that night in Mobile. “A few days later I talked to [Biloxi pitching coach] Chris Hook,” Flanagan recalled, “and he told me that Hader took over the game from the beginning — that he pitched like he was on a mission.”

Hader’s mission, it seems, is to pitch his way into a Major League rotation. A 19th-round selection of the Orioles in 2012, the young left-hander has succeeded at every level of the minors through Double-A. In 58 starts and 32 relief appearances across three-plus seasons, Hader has compiled a 2.95 ERA with 398 strikeouts in 363.1 innings. As his walk rate has declined, his strikeout rate has increased. Following his successful debut in Mobile, he started another six games for Biloxi, striking out 41 and walking only 11 in 33.2 innings. Then, he capped his 2015 season with a dominant performance in the Arizona Fall League, where, pitching mainly in relief, he posted a miniscule 0.56 ERA and caught the attention of Gammons Daily as one of the season’s standout performers.

First impressions, however, can be double-edged. For all his minor-league success, Hader has yet to alter scouts’ and industry analysts’ early assessments of him as pitcher whose lanky frame and three-quarters delivery raise concerns about durability, and whose below-average secondary offerings limit his potential as a starter. Earlier this month I ranked Hader the No. 4 prospect in Milwaukee’s system and No. 16 overall in the National League Central. BP, however, left him out of the Brewers’ Top-10 altogether.

Time alone will reveal whether or not Hader can answer the durability question by holding up under a starter’s workload over a full season. Flanagan, at least, has no concerns about the young lefty’s delivery. “We’ll monitor it,” Flanagan said, “and we’ll judge it by how he feels in between starts.”  

In 2015, Hader’s three highest pitch totals came in three consecutive starts with Biloxi.  On August 20, 26, and 31, Hader threw 99, 96 and 99 pitches, respectively, and made it through seven innings in each of the last two starts. So while the Brewers have been judicious with their young starter’s pitch count — limiting his innings in the Arizona Fall League, for instance — they also understand that the only way to find out if Hader can handle a starter’s workload is to give him one.

The other knock against Hader has been his below-average secondary offerings. Flanagan notes that Hader “could get away with using only his fastball” because there’s so much deception in the delivery that “righties and lefties take bad swings off him.” That’s not to say, however, that Hader must rely only on his fastball. His slider and changeup, Flanagan said, have been “better than advertised.” Best of all, Hader, whom Flanagan described as an intense competitor with advanced focus and makeup, has “confidence in all three pitches.” In short, he “shows all the signs and tools necessary to be a starter.”

Flanagan was quick to note that Hader “also has the ability to pitch out of the pen.” If, however, Hader does shift to a relief role in the future, he would do so only to satisfy the Brewers’ team needs at the Major League level, not because of his own limitations as a pitcher. His success against both lefties and righties would make him not a lefty specialist but a one-or-two-inning, high-leverage reliever in the mold of Pittsburgh’s Tony Watson. If it comes to that, the Brewers organization would not complain.

Meanwhile, Hader will remain a starter with significant upside. When reminded that Hader had drawn comparisons to established aces such as Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner, Flanagan urged caution. “You hate to even drop those names,” he said, for it puts too much pressure on the youngster. “But,” he continued, pausing perhaps to recall the impression Hader already has left on his new organization, “you can get excited.”                

MLB’s 2013 realignment into six different five-team divisions, coupled with its decision to reward division winners by forcing two wildcard entrants into a one-game playoff, constitutes by far this century’s most important alteration to the game’s competitive structure. Fair evaluation of a team’s performance, therefore, requires close consideration of the divisional context. In 2015, for instance, the Brewers played the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals 19 games each for a total of 76 games. That’s 47 percent of Milwaukee’s schedule. By comparison, the NFL’s Packers face the division-rival Bears, Lions, and Vikings only six times in sixteen games, or 38 percent of Green Bay’s overall schedule. Divisional play, in short, matters more in baseball than in any other major professional sport. 

If fair evaluation of a team’s performance requires divisional context, then the same holds true when attempting to predict that team’s future fortunes. Prospect junkies love to talk about the best farm systems in baseball and compare organizations; it’s interesting and harmless good fun. For competitive purposes, however, it makes little difference how the quality of the Brewers’ system compares to, say, that of the Blue Jays. On the other hand, in light of divisional play and heavy intra-divisional schedules, comparing the quality of the Brewers’ system of those of the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals becomes not only interesting but essential to any forward-looking analysis.

For several years, the outlook on this front was bleak for Brewers fans. St. Louis, the NL Central’s perennial juggernaut, advanced either to the NL Championship Series or World Series every year from 2011-14.  Pittsburgh, downtrodden for two decades, has earned three consecutive wildcard berths.  And the Chicago Cubs, “lovable losers” for the better part of a century, appear poised to contend for division titles and more well into the future thanks to a remarkable rebuilding effort that has netted them perhaps the most enviable core of young hitters to arrive in the majors in decades.

That final phrase, however–to arrive in the majors–signals a change in how we should view the five NL Central farm systems. Many of the top prospects who made the Cardinals’, Pirates’, and Cubs’ systems so strong have graduated to the major leagues since 2012: Carlos Martinez, Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty, and Randal Grichuk in St. Louis; Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco in Pittsburgh; Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber in Chicago. The question, of course, is what’s left? Do these contenders have enough remaining in their farm systems alone to sustain their success into 2017 and beyond?

For the non-contenders, in particular for the Brewers, 2017 is the key date. By trading Carlos Gomez, whose contract runs through the end of next season, the Milwaukee front office announced to the baseball world that it does not expect to contend in 2016. Adding the cheap and controllable starter Mike Fiers to the Gomez deal merely amplified the announcement; as solid as Fiers has been, he will turn 32 in June 2017, so the Brewers wisely chose to trade Fiers and his years of (likely) diminishing effectiveness in exchange for prospects.  

One way to compare these five systems is to rank the division’s best prospects regardless of affiliation. This, of course, is not the only available method, and it might not even be the best one, but it does offer a useful perspective, for it allows us at least to begin a conversation about which pipeline features the most impact-talent, which is deepest and most balanced, and which, therefore, gives its fans the best reason to hope for the future.  

Counting down from 50 to 1, here are my top 50 prospects in the NL Central, including age on Opening Day 2016 and the team they played for at the highest level they reached in 2015:

Nos. 50-41

50. Donnie Dewees, OF Cubs, 22, Eugene Emeralds (SS Northwest League)
49. Antonio Santillan, RHP Reds, 18, Reds (Arizona Rookie Lg.)
48. Junior Fernandez, RHP Cardinals, 19, Palm Beach Cardinals (A+ Florida State Lg.)**
47. Cody Ponce, RHP Brewers, 21, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
46. Willson Contreras, C/3B Cubs, 23, Tennessee Smokies (AA Southern Lg.)
45. Pierce Johnson, RHP Cubs, 24, Tennessee Smokies (AA Southern Lg.)
44. Edmundo Sosa, SS Cardinals, 20, Johnson City Cardinals (Appalachian Rookie Lg.)
43. Keury Mella, RHP Reds, 22, Daytona Tortugas (A+ Florida State Lg.)
42. Alex Blandino, SS Reds, 23, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA Southern Lg.)
41. Kevin Newman, SS Pirates, 22, West Virginia Power (A South Atlantic Lg.)

**Junior Fernandez appeared in two games with the Palm Beach Cardinals but spent most of the season in the rookie Gulf Coast League.

Another dozen-or-so players could make a case for inclusion on this list somewhere in the 50-41 range. Assuming he sticks at shortstop, which appears likely, and assuming his hit-tool develops as expected, Edmundo Sosa could have the highest ceiling of any player in this group.  

Cody Ponce makes the cut as the only Brewer in the list’s “bottom” 10. Projections on Ponce are all over the place. MLB.com rates him the 29th-best prospect in the system, which, given Ponce’s excellent 2015 debut, would be good news for the system. Others, including some folks here at BP Milwaukee, are more bullish on the young righthander. He makes the top-50 and will ascend the rankings with a repeat performance at (likely) High-A Brevard County in 2016.

Nos. 40-31

40. Jake Gatewood, SS Brewers, 20, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
39. Magneuris Sierra, OF Cardinals, 19, Peoria Chiefs (A Midwest Lg.)
38. Harrison Bader, OF Cardinals, 21, Peoria Chiefs (A Midwest Lg.)
37. Harold Ramirez, OF Pirates, 21, Bradenton Marauders (A+ Florida State Lg.)
36. Luke Weaver, RHP Cardinals, 22, Palm Beach Cardinals (A+ Florida State Lg.)
35. Zach Davies, RHP Brewers, 23, Milwaukee Brewers (Majors)
34. Carl Edwards, Jr., RHP Cubs, 24, Chicago Cubs (Majors)**
33. Dylan Cease, RHP Cubs, 20, Cubs (Arizona Rookie League)
32. Kodi Medeiros, LHP Brewers, 19, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
31. Cole Tucker, SS Pirates, 19, West Virginia Power (A South Atlantic Lg.)

**Carl Edwards, Jr. appeared in five games for the Cubs at the major-league level but spent the majority of the season with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs.

Dylan Cease at #33 might seem like an aggressive ranking, but the former Vanderbilt commit, back from TJ surgery, has more upside than the other pitchers in this group–so much so, in fact, that Baseball America rated him the #2 overall prospect in the Arizona League after the 2015 season.

The 40-31 group includes three Brewers.  Jake Gatewood will not stick at shortstop, and he needs time to develop his hit-tool, but prodigious power alone keeps him on this list. Zach Davies always profiles as a back-end starter and always outperforms his profile. He’s the lowest-rated player on this list who has major-league experience, closed the 2015 season with back-to-back scoreless outings in Chicago and San Diego, and has the inside track on a 2016 rotation spot. Kodi Medeiros, the Brewers’ top pick (12th overall) in the 2014 draft, performed very well as a teenager in the Midwest League, where he started 16 games and averaged more than a strikeout-per-inning.

Nos. 30-21

30. Eloy Jimenez, OF Cubs, 19, Eugene Emeralds (SS Northwest Lg.)
29. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B Pirates, 19, West Virginia Black Bears (SS NY-Penn Lg.)
28. Marco Gonzales, LHP Cardinals, 24, St. Louis Cardinals (Majors)**
27. Jack Flaherty, RHP Cardinals, 20, Peoria Chiefs (A Midwest Lg.)
26. Jorge Lopez, RHP Brewers, 23, Milwaukee Brewers (Majors)**
25. Devin Williams, RHP Brewers, 21, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
24. Gilbert Lara, SS Brewers, 18, Helena Brewers (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)
23. Cody Reed, LHP Reds, 22, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA Southern Lg.)
22. Monte Harrison, OF Brewers, 20, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A+ Midwest Lg.)
21. Marcos Diplan, RHP Brewers, 19, Helena Brewers (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)

**Marco Gonzales made one start in the majors but spent the majority of 2015 with the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds.

**Jorge Lopez made two starts in the majors but spent the majority of 2015 with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers.

Eloy Jimenez, one of most coveted players in the 2013 international class, makes the top-30 thanks to a combination of impressive raw tools and better-than-expected production in the Northwest League. Ke’Bryan Hayes, a 2015 draftee, earned praise for his advanced approach in the GCL.

Here, the mounting strength of the Milwaukee system begins to show itself: a whopping five Brewers appear in the 21-30 range. Distinguishing between these five, at least for the purpose of ranking prospects, is a true exercise in splitting hairs. Jorge Lopez, of course, is so close to the majors that he actually reached them in September 2015. Devin Williams had perhaps the best performance of the group this past season. The other three–Gilbert Lara, Monte Harrison, and Marcos Diplan–boast three of the system’s highest ceilings. Put them in whatever order you please, and it remains a strong contingent.

Nos. 20-11

20. Reese McGuire, C Pirates, 21, Bradenton Marauders (A+ Florida State Lg.)
19. Ian Happ, OF Cubs, 21, South Bend Cubs (A Midwest Lg.)
18. Demi Orimoloye, OF Brewers, 19, Brewers (Arizona Rookie Lg.)
17. Duane Underwood, RHP Cubs, 21, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (A+ Carolina League)
16. Josh Hader, LHP Brewers, 21, Biloxi Shuckers (AA Southern League)
15. Alen Hanson, 2B Pirates, 23, Indianapolis Indians (AAA International Lg.)
14. Tyler Stephenson, C Reds, 19, Billings Mustangs (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)
13. Amir Garrett, LHP Reds, 23, Dayton Tortugas (A+ Florida State Lg.)
12. Billy McKinney, OF Cubs, 21, Tennessee Smokies (AA Southern Lg.)
11. Jesse Winker, OF Reds, 22, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA Southern Lg.)

Billy McKinney and Jesse Winker had pedestrian seasons in 2015 but still could emerge as impact players for their organizations. A full season at Triple-A will determine their respective trajectories. The sleeper in this group is Tyler Stephenson, a big-bodied teenage catcher with some power who enjoyed a nice debut at Billings and projects to stick behind the plate.

Call me crazy, but I’m as bullish on this group’s two Brewers, Hader and Orimoloye, as anyone could be. Milwaukee stole Demi Orimoloye in the 4th round and then signed him to a reasonable bonus of $450,000. At 6’4”-225, the young Canadian outfielder offers a power-speed combo that could make him one of the steals-of-the-draft. His Arizona-League debut included a .292/.319/.518 split with 6 homers and 19 stolen bases in only 33 games. Josh Hader, meanwhile, entered 2015 as Baseball America’s reigning California League Pitcher-of-the-Year–no small feat. This past season, Hader threw 104 combined Double-A innings between Corpus Christi and Biloxi, compiled a 3.03 ERA, and struck out a whopping 119. One would like to see how the young lefthander performs with an increased workload, but it seems fair to evaluate him as a future starter until he proves he cannot start.  

Nos. 10-1

10. Jameson Taillon, RHP Pirates, 24, Injured–did not pitch
9. Trent Clark, OF Brewers, 19, Helena Brewers (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)
8. Brett Phillips, OF Brewers, 21, Biloxi Shuckers (AA Southern Lg.)
7. Gleyber Torres, SS Cubs, 19, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (A+ Carolina Lg.)**
6. Austin Meadows, OF Pirates, 20, Altoona Curve (AA Eastern Lg.)**
5. Robert Stephenson, RHP Reds, 23, Louisville Bats (AAA International Lg.)
4. Josh Bell, 1B Pirates, 23, Indianapolis Indians (AAA International Lg.)
3. Alex Reyes, RHP Cardinals, 21, Springfield Cardinals (AA Texas Lg.)
2. Orlando Arcia, SS Brewers, 21, Biloxi Shuckers (AA Southern Lg.)
1. Tyler Glasnow, RHP Pirates, 22, Indianapolis Indians (AAA International Lg.)

**Gleyber Torres appeared in seven games for Myrtle Beach but spent the majority of 2015 with the South Bend Cubs of the Low-A Midwest League.

**Austin Meadows appeared in six games for Altoona but spent the majority of 2015 with the Bradenton Marauders of the High-A Florida State League.

Two lost seasons have dulled Jameson Taillon’s luster, so his ranking here assumes a return to full health. Either way, Pittsburgh will have more impact-players arriving at PNC Park before long.

Once again the Brewers are well represented, and this is an important group in which to be represented. These are the players who have the potential to become first-division regulars, all-stars, and even franchise cornerstones. A frightening outfield injury notwithstanding, Trent Clark, Milwaukee’s top pick in 2015 (15th overall) enjoyed an excellent debut. Between Arizona and Helena he slashed .309/.424/.430, swiped 25 bags, and showed advanced plate-discipline. He should hit at or near the top of the Brewers’ lineup for many years. Brett Phillips’s numbers fell off once he left Lancaster’s cozy confines, but that happens with most prospects. His defense rates as plus across the board, but he must continue to hit in order to justify the Gomez-Fiers trade, of which he was the centerpiece.  The smart money says he will. Finally, Orlando Arcia enjoyed the best campaign of his young career, carried Biloxi to a first-half division championship, and cemented his status as one of the best prospects in baseball. If he continues to develop as he has thus far, he will take over as the Brewers’ starting shortstop no later than 2017 and will be one of the special young players around whom franchises build their teams. 

All told, the final per-club tally of Top-50 prospects looks like this:

Milwaukee 14
Pittsburgh 10
Chicago 10
St. Louis 8
Cincinnati 8

With four players in the top-10 and six in the top-20, Pittsburgh still has the most impact-talent in its system. A year ago, of course, the Cubs would have dominated that upper-echelon. It is fair to assume that those two teams will remain formidable at the major-league level even as their minor-league systems begin to appear less so.

Conventional wisdom holds that St. Louis always will develop pitching. With Alex Reyes in the fold, the cupboard is hardly bare. It is depleted, though, and that makes the future NL Central even more interesting

No doubt Cincinnati fans would like to see a few more names on this list. In fairness, however, the Reds have promoted many of their promising young pitchers, including Raisel Iglesias and Brandon Finnegan, and the minor-league system does have some impact-talent on the way.

So where does that leave Milwaukee? Sheer volume alone does not make a system strong, but it helps. Fourteen Brewers made this list; four others I considered did not. All eighteen have a better-than-average chance of making it to the majors, and most of those eighteen have a chance to make good careers in the majors. The organization appears strong at shortstop, strong and very deep in the outfield, and deep in starting pitching. It lacks corner infielders and a projectable ace. Buster Olney reports that new GM David Stearns will listen to trade offers involving anyone on the roster, so at this point it is difficult to project how the 2016 Brewers will look, let alone the team’s composition in future years. If, as reported, the new regime plans to cultivate the farm system’s strength by exchanging current major-league players for prospects who might fill some of the system’s gaps, then there is every reason to expect that Milwaukee’s prospect-pipeline, which at minimum has closed the gap on its division rivals in the past two seasons, will become the NL Central’s strongest system, if it has not already. Clearly, this bodes well for the Brewers’ chances to compete at the major-league level in 2017 and beyond.   

The Saguaros’ Milwaukee contingent consists of four pitchers and four position players, most of whom spent the 2015 minor-league regular season with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, so Brewers fans should see these players at Miller Park within the next two seasons. While top prospect Orlando Arcia will skip the AFL, the Saguaros’ roster does feature plenty of interesting young talent, including three of the four players Milwaukee acquired from Houston in exchange for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers at the 2015 trade deadline.

Outfielder Brett Phillips headlines the group. A sixth-round pick of the Astros in 2012, Phillips entered 2015 as the No. 4 overall prospect in Houston’s loaded minor-league system. In stops at High-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi, he did nothing to dull that luster, swatting 16 homers and swiping 15 bases in 97 games. Phillips’s power-speed combo, coupled with his relative youth — at 21, he remains young for his level — gives him an intriguing ceiling as a future center fielder. Brewers fans will recall that former GM Doug Melvin added starting pitcher Mike Fiers to the Gomez trade in order to acquire Phillips, who, if projections hold, should hit near the top of the Milwaukee lineup for many years, starting perhaps as early as 2017.

Former fifth-round pick Michael Reed is Milwaukee’s other position-player-to-watch this fall. Like Phillips — though perhaps less so — Reed combines the arm strength of a corner outfielder and the speed of a center fielder. Unlike Phillips, Reed was a fringe prospect prior to his solid 2015 campaign at Biloxi, where he slashed .278/.379/.422, stole 25 bases, and earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A Colorado Springs. Although he often hit cleanup for Biloxi, Reed has only 12 homers in 1,533 minor-league at-bats, so he does not project as a middle-of-the-order bat in Milwaukee. The Brewers certainly will make use of Reed’s above-average on-base and baserunning skills, as well as his quality feel for the game, but his lack of power places him behind other outfielders such as Phillips and Domingo Santana. In short, there is no obvious spot for Reed in Milwaukee’s starting-outfield-of-the-future. But a power surge in Arizona could change things in the short term.

Infielders Yadiel Rivera and Nathan Orf round out the Brewers’ position-player contingent at Surprise. Arguably the organization’s best defender, Rivera has the glove and arm strength to play shortstop for the Brewers. If he can replicate the .345 OBP he posted at Biloxi, and if incumbent Jean Segura is traded this offseason, Rivera could find himself in Milwaukee’s starting lineup as early as Opening Day 2016, keeping the seat warm until Orlando Arcia arrives. Orf, meanwhile, has the on-base skills and versatility — he once played all nine positions in a single game for the Brevard County Manatees — to challenge for a future spot on the Major League bench, which would be a remarkable achievement for a 5-foot-9 second baseman who went undrafted out of Baylor despite leading the Bears with a .470 OBP.

The group of four Brewers pitchers on the Saguaros’ roster includes two starters acquired along with Phillips and Santana in the Gomez-Fiers trade, southpaw Josh Hader and right-hander Adrian Houser.

One could make a case for Hader as the most underrated prospect in all of baseball. A nineteenth-round pick in 2012, Hader already has been traded twice, first from Baltimore to Houston in the 2013 deal that sent Bud Norris to the Orioles, and then from Houston to Milwaukee last summer. Scouts continue to express concerns over his durability and secondary offerings, which explains why some view him as a future reliever. Most major publications, therefore, have been conservative in their rankings and careful in their projections of Hader. He has sneaked onto a few organizational top-ten lists but without much helium. The doubts and caution have been understandable to-date, but now, after three full professional seasons, Hader’s age, ceiling, and on-field results justify more bullish, even exuberant expectations. In 2015, Hader, only 21, appeared in 24 games at the Double-A level, including 17 starts, where he compiled a 3.03 ERA in 104 IP with 35 walks and 119 strikeouts. Overall, the walks remain a bit high, but the trend leaves room for optimism. At each minor-league stop where he logged at least seven starts, Hader’s walk rate declined while his strikeout rate improved. The Brewers would be wise not to allow it, but if he were permitted to compete for a rotation spot in 2016 it would not be unreasonable to think he could win it. He should be considered one of the organization’s top-five prospects.

Houser, meanwhile, might be Milwaukee’s fastest-rising prospect on the pitching side. Tagged with the “future back-end starter” label, Houser threw his final pitch of 2014 for the Class-A Midwest League’s Quad Cities River Bandits. He threw the final pitch of his 2015 breakout campaign against the Chicago Cubs at Miller Park. Like Hader, Houser has yet to prove himself at Triple-A, where he should spend most of 2016, but his quick ascent and fine performance at Biloxi (4-1, 2.92 ERA, 32:6 K:BB in 37 IP) make him one to watch.

Relievers Jacob Barnes and Damien Magnifico round out Saguaro’s Milwaukee contingent. After starting 35 games in 2013-14, Barnes thrived following his conversion to relief in late May. Magnifico could be a future back-end reliever for the big-league club.

Late-October baseball means the World Series — exhilarating times for fans of the two remaining clubs and for all who love the game. Late-October baseball also means prospects-on-the-cusp playing in relative anonymity under the bright Arizona sun. For all eight of Milwaukee’s Surprise Saguaros, but especially for youngsters such as Phillips and Hader, a few weeks in the Arizona Fall League provide another opportunity to show Brewers fans that their team’s future could be equally bright.

1) Houston Astros
2) Toronto Blue Jays
3) Texas Rangers
4) Kansas City Royals
5) Los Angeles Dodgers
6) New York Mets
7) Chicago Cubs
8) Other

Let’s get to this week’s stories:

Grantland || ALDS Preview: Breaking Down Rangers vs. Blue Jays and Astros vs. Royals

Brewers fans looking for a postseason rooting interest are likely to find it in the American League, where seven former Brewers are enjoying the postseason with their new teams. Besides being filled with former Brewers, the AL also features a variety of teams that aren’t the Cardinals. For Grantland, Ben Lindbergh breaks down the match ups in Junior Circuit.

FanGraphs || C.C. Sabathia and the Humanity of Athletes

Many words have been spilled on former Brewer CC Sabathia’s decision to enter a rehab facility for his alcohol problem this past week in advance of the Yankees’ first playoff appearance in three years, most of them rightly positive. It’s not easy for anyone to admit that there’s a problem, let alone a professional athlete living under the bright lights of New York City. As the product of a family that dealt with addiction, I have nothing but respect for Sabathia’s ability to put his own life, and his family, before his baseball career. But he hasn’t done anything heroic yet, and he has a long road ahead of him. I wish CC well as he walks the road to recovery.

Just A Bit Outside || Which Manager Had Most Success With Review System in 2015?

Owen Watson takes a look at the numbers behind managers challenges this year, a skill that Milwaukee’s managers ranked among the league’s worst in 2015 — though not as bad as Matt Williams, who was the worst by a large margin (as if any further justification was needed for his firing). At the top of the heap you’ll find a trio of playoff managers in Joe Maddon, Clint Hurdle and Ned Yost, though with just a few seasons of data with which to work, it’s impossible to say how big of an impact these managers’ challenges had on their teams’ playoff runs.

Brew Crew Ball || Brewers Get Fifth Pick in 2016 Draft

Derek Harvey takes a look at the silver lining for the Brewers after a disastrous 2015 season. Milwaukee will have the fifth pick in the draft next summer, giving the team to add even more to a drastically improved farm system that should jump from the bottom third to the top third in most system rankings this winter. Harvey points out that the last time the Brewers had a top ten pick was in 2007, when they selected Matt LaPorta, and though the former top prospect never made good on his potential, he was the key piece in the Sabathia trade that delivered the Brewers’ first postseason appearance in 26 years.

Reviewing the Brew || Milwaukee Brewers Make Wholesale Changes on Counsell’s Staff

Brewers’ new general manager David Stearns officially took over the front office this week as Milwaukee’s season came to a close, and while changes were expected, I don’t think anyone predicted the kind of turnover Milwaukee is in for as five of the team’s coaches were let go. Among the departed are Rick Kranitz, who had been the Brewers’ pitching coach since 2011, and Jerry Narron, who was the Brewers’ bench coach since 2010 and was responsible for the calligraphy on the Brewers’ iconic lineup cards. Surviving the fallout from Milwaukee’s most disappointing season in a decade were hitting coach Darnell Coles and Teflon-coated third base coach Ed Sedar, who has manned one base or the other from Milwaukee since 2007. While no annoucements regarding replacements have yet been made, it is widely assumed that Pat Murphy, whom the Brewers requested an interview with this summer prior to his being named interim manager of the Padres, is at the top of Craig Counsell’s list. If Brewers fans are looking for things to be afraid of this winter, erstwhile Nationals manager Williams’ name has also been bandied about as a potential add for the Crew; Williams and Counsell were teammates in Arizona.

Baseball America || Southern League Top 20 Prospects Chat   

I’ll leave you this week with the transcript of a chat Matt Eddy of Baseball America conducted on Wednesday regarding their most recent Top 20 prospect list for the Southern League, of which the Brewers’ prospect-rich Double-A Biloxi Shuckers were the runners-up. Several Brewers’ prospects are discussed throughout, notably Jorge Lopez, Michael Reed and Adrian Houser.

Almost as soon as a prospect list is written and published, it becomes obsolete. It no longer represents what is; rather, it represents what was at a particular moment. Velocities fluctuate, new prospects are added to the system, a hitter changes his stance, a guy is bumped up a level, a player goes on a massive hot streak where something clicks. Prospect development is far too fluid for a single scouting report or a single top-10 list to be authoritative for a long period of time.

As such, it’s important to remain open and to be willing to alter one’s opinion about a player as new information is presented.

*****

The Milwaukee Brewers selected Jorge Lopez in the second round of the 2011 draft out of Puerto Rico. He immediately earned plaudits from scouts and prospect experts, with some suggesting he was the cream of the crop in the Brewers’ draft class that year. Those people loved Lopez’s frame, his demeanor, and his projectability. It led Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein — who is now with the Houston Astros — to opine, “He could be a star, but it could take a decade to see it.”

After his professional debut, though, his prospect stock began to quickly deteriorate. In 2012 the right-hander struggled so much in Maryvale that the organization sent him to the Dominican complex, where he posted a 4.76 ERA in just five outings. It didn’t improve much the following season, either, as Lopez compiled an unsightly 5.23 ERA with Class-A Wisconsin as a 20-year-old.

All of that led to Baseball Prospectus leaving Lopez off the Brewers’ top-10 prospect list in 2014. His brief writeup still emphasized his long-term projectability; however, his overall ranking reflected his current status. In other words, leaving the hurler off the top-10 list was not an indication that he failed as a prospect or that he couldn’t make the big leagues. At that moment in time, though, the combination of production, current skills, and long-term projection didn’t make him one of the top-10 prospects in a weak Brewers’ farm system.

Perhaps the 2015 season best represents the fickle nature of prospect lists. Baseball Prospectus listed Lopez as the seventh-best player in the Brewers’ system. It noted that his realistic role was that of a number-five starter or a swingman, while still discussing his potential to be something more. Still, the scouting report said that he had “yet to realize [his] previously projected velocity jump” and did its best to capture what was the case at the moment of publication.

No more than six months later, that whole scouting report was relatively useless. Jorge Lopez experienced that velocity jump into the mid-90s. He put together a brilliant campaign for Double-A Biloxi, in which he posted a sparkling 2.32 ERA over 143.1 innings and won the Brewers’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. Moreover, the 6-foot-4 righty began throwing his curveball and changeup for strikes more often, giving him a legitimate chance to stick in a major-league rotation for the first time throughout his development process.

As such, his stock soared this year. Some scouts suggested that he should be in the conversation for the midseason top-100 prospect lists, while he cemented himself as an easy top-five prospect in a rapidly improving Brewers’ farm system by the end of July.

But this wasn’t an example of old scouting reports being wrong or unexpected development. Instead, these Baseball Prospectus lists reflected his overall journey, moving him up or down depending on what he showed at any given moment, but none of the scouting reports ever neglected to mention his projectability or his potential to take a massive step forward. If anything, as the seasons rolled along, the scouting reports merely questioned if it was going to happen.

Despite surrendering three runs in just five innings of his major-league debut on Tuesday, September 29, Lopez’s increased stock was on full display. He averaged 95 mph with his fastball, even touching 96.7 mph on one occasion. It showed a bit of wiggle, too, as evidenced by his seven swing-and-misses on the night. A 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate on his fastball is impressive, no matter the ultimate results on the scoreboard.

Lopez also featured the two things that now give him a chance to stick as a starter in the majors. His curveball has always been his primary offspeed offering — though he only threw eight of them on Tuesday — but 75 percent of his curveballs went for strikes. That’s absolutely key for the young right-hander.

Furthermore, he unleashed 16 changeups, a pitch that wasn’t legitimately in his repertoire a couple years ago. It’s a bit harder than one would like, as it averaged 89.3 mph and touched 91.2 mph, but he got three whiffs on his changeup and it has decent enough movement. The interesting thing, though, is that he threw a higher percentage of curveballs to lefties than changeups, featuring el cambio more against same-handed hitters.

Lopez has finally taken the elusive next step that everyone has projected for the last four years. It was never pre-ordained. His stock fell as the years progressed and he didn’t live up to his lofty projection. Now, though, he has become a legitimate top-100 prospect and is one of the brightest arms in the Brewers’ system. Such is the fickle nature of top prospect lists and why they should be mined for content, rather than rankings.