Milwaukee would not be in the position that they are without Yelich, who was a stud for the Miami Marlins before fashioning himself into a bonafide superstar during the 2018 campaign. His .326 batting average /.402 on-base percentage /.598 slugging percentage slash line earned him the National League batting title (Milwaukee’s first ever) and he was this close to the first NL Triple Crown since 1937, tallying 36 home runs and 110 runs batted in (Yelich finished behind Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story in home runs, and Javier Baez for runs batted in). His superlative performance yielded a .356 True Average (TAv) and 7.7 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) in his age-26 season, and he’s become the odds-on favorite to capture the league’s Most Valuable Player award.

Thinking back to January 25th, 2018, not everyone was thrilled when Slingin’ David Stearns signed off on the trade that sent four prospects to the Little Havana neighborhood in Miami. At the time, he gave up Milwaukee’s number one, three, and six prospects (according to Baseball Prospectus) along with a pitcher who Stearns himself had called one of his favorite arms in the organization. So as we bask in the glow of the first playoff victory our local club has produced in seven long years, let’s take a moment to check in on the guys that Stearns have up to help get us here:

OF Lewis Brinson
For most fans, Brinson was the player that stung most to lose. He was considered top-25 talent league wide, a potential five-tool center fielder who offered a few glimpses of his potential during a brief MLB trial in 2017. Miami handed Brinson a regular role at the big league level to begin the year, and he responded by putting together one of the least productive campaigns of any player in 2018. Brinson hit only .199/.240/.338 in 109 games and 406 plate appearances, good for an anemic TAv of .220. He did pop 11 long balls (including a mult-homer game against Milwaukee) and tallied 3.0 FRAA, but on the whole he was valued as a sub-replacement level player, tallying -0.3 WARP.

OF Monte Harrison
After a breakout season in 2017 between Appleton and Carolina, Miami tasked Harrison with one of the toughest challenges a minor leaguer will face: the jump from Class-A Advanced to Double-A. His slash line for Jacksonville of the Southern League wasn’t too bad at .240/.316/.399, which translated to a better-than-average .272 TAv on the pitcher-friendly circuit. Harrison again showed off his tantalizing power/speed combination, swiping 28 bases to go along with 19 dingers in 583 plate appearances. But the outfielder was also by far the league leader in strikeouts, whiffing an astonishing 215 times, or 37 percent of his trips to bat.

2B Isan Diaz
Like Harrison, Isan Diaz was assigned to Double-A Jacksonville to begin his time in the Marlins organization after finishing 2017 in Class-A Advanced. Diaz had a fair amount more success in the Southern League, however, producing a nifty .245/.365/.418 slash with 10 homers and 10 steals for a .294 TAv. After 83 games he earned a promotion to Triple-A New Orleans, and his numbers cratered at the highest level of the minors. In 36 games and 155 plate appearances, Diaz could manage only a .204/.281/.358 slash (.217 TAv). Strikeouts remain a concern for the infielder as well, as he whiffed a total of 140 times in 119 games between the two affiliates.

RHP Jordan Yamamoto
Yamamoto was stung by the injury bug this season, not taking the mound until late May and then missing another month of action between July and August. As a result, the righty made only 13 appearances and tossed 68 and 2/3 innings on the year, split between rookie ball, Class-A Advanced, and Double-A. In those innings, however, he put together a sparkling 1.68 ERA. Batters hit only .176 against the Hawaiian right-hander, and he struck out 84 (11.14 K/9) versus just 14 walks (1.83 BB/9). The profile is still more smarts and guile than it is pure stuff, leading to questions about how his game will play at the highest levels. Of the four prospects in the deal, though, Yamamoto is the only one who surely improved his stock heading into 2019, and the Baseball Prospectus team cited his ability to change speeds as one reason for rising prospect stock.

So, given these reports, have you been talked into a do-over on the trade? 

When I profiled free agents to begin the season, Lorenzo Cain graded as the best available position player free agent with a $71.5M three-year depreciated surplus. Given that the Brewers landed Cain for $80 million over five years, the Cain deal grades as close to an absolute steal. Cain’s surplus grades out to approximately $120.0M over five years, which means that at a $16.0M/year rate the Brewers basically received two free years on Cain’s deal. Basically, Cain should be able to deliver value on this contract in nearly every scenario short of catastrophic injury.

Contrary to the common line that the Brewers basically acquired Cain for market value, it is arguable that the club attained the center fielder’s services for quite a valuable deal.

What is thrilling about the Yelich deal is that it is not a steal. It is not a value move. The Brewers exhausted the full value of Yelich by trading three of their top six prospects. However, this is not problematic because Yelich’s surplus value is almost comical; he’s a young, budding superstar who has already proven a floor somewhere between 2.5 WARP and 5.0 WARP as he enters his prime age seasons. Tracking surplus value is important here because one can use the idea of organizational surplus value to assess when and how a team is extracting wins from their players.

Surplus Value Pricing
Refining WARP & OFP Pricing
Translating OFP
OFP and Minor League Pay
Revisiting the CC Sabathia Trade
Cashing Out OFP 2
Organizational Logic and Playoff Trades
Historical WARP and OFP

Had the Brewers kept Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Jordan Yamamoto, they would have indeed retained those prospects’ surplus value (defined here by their potential MLB ceilings, or Overall Future Potential (OFP), and their risk floor) while also carrying all of the risk of developing them year-to-year. This development risk was especially present with Harrison, Diaz, and Yamamoto, who are a couple of professional levels away from the MLB, but it was also somewhat present in Brinson’s profile should the center fielder never adjust his hit tool to MLB pitching. An elite fielding, speedy center fielder with some power but contact issues at the plate is not a bad MLB profile, but it’s not a superstar profile.

I began tracking Brewers surplus value during the club’s rebuild as a way to understand the success of a rebuild. What I found problematic about analyzing a rebuilding club was determining when and how a rebuilding team would achieve success. Since a rebuilding team is by definition “cashing out” its potential to win ballgames far down the road, there must be interim metrics used to judge a front office’s success. I use surplus value to assess MLB players by judging “production” (how well a player plays) and “scarcity” (how the player’s contract is structured) to express Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) in monetary terms. Since risk can be priced, prospect OFP can be assessed in monetary terms as well, either by assessing the scarcity of certain grades and profiles or by historically analyzing production by prospect classes. By using these methods, MLB players and prospects can be evaluated on the same terms, which is a necessary task since MLB players are often traded for prospects; this method can also help one assess the success of a rebuild.

While there will be issues with designing any surplus value system for assessing MLB players and prospects, I maintain that working toward such a pricing system is necessary because MLB teams trade prospects for MLB players all the time.

The trouble with a player like Christian Yelich is that because he is cost-controlled by a $50 million contract (plus an option), his top surplus grade is extremely high. Over the course of the remaining five-years, extrapolating Yelich’s best WARP (5.3) yields potential production value worth $185.5M; even harshly depreciating Yelich’s 2015-2017 production yields potential value worth $93.1M. The reason Yelich’s surplus value runs so high, however, is that Yelich can also be graded by the cost of his contract against his production value; with $58.3M remaining over five years (if the Brewers exercise Yelich’s option), Yelich’s contractual surplus is at least $34.8M, and could be as high as $127.2M should his superstar potential continue to materialize.

Simply stated, Yelich is an absurdly valuable MLB player; he’s about as valuable as it gets. What is fascinating about Yelich’s value is that one would expect that he is nearly untradeable because of his value. Basically, there is no single prospect who will ever be worth Yelich, and this is why the Marlins’ reported demand of Braves prospect Ronald Acuna (arguably the very top prospect in the game) was not ridiculous or even audacious. Thus, it should make sense that the Brewers traded three high-ceiling prospects and one intriguing pitching flyer for Yelich: where one prospect cannot exhaust the value of an MLB player, many prospects must be used to form a transaction worth completing.

Using historical OFP pricing, one can see that a prospect package of Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, and Yamamoto very nearly exhausts Yelich’s highest surplus pricing. This is not necessarily a problem, given that Yelich is such a valuable player one should not have (reasonably) expected anything lower. For example, once the Miami Marlins reached their threshold to fund their 2018 payroll, they could demand pure talent in return for Yelich, rather than talent and payroll relief. The “lowest” possible deal for Yelich, which would have priced the left fielder at his depreciated value over four years, would have roughly required Brinson and Diaz in return; but once the Marlins were able to demand talent alone, that type of price would not have been attainable by Milwaukee. Given that the Brewers had a deep farm system, especially at center field, the Brewers front office correctly ascertained that the Marlins would be pricing out Yelich at his highest possible value. With both Yelich and Lorenzo Cain sliding into outfield slots for five years, many have noted that the actual prospect hit is lessened for Milwaukee.

Of course, it must be stated that a player’s MLB potential ceiling is a dynamic phenomenon, and OFP only measures a player at one static point in time. Take Isan Diaz, for example; the second base prospect attained a higher OFP ranking entering the 2017 season, and a rough injury-riddled year dented that a bit. Jordan Yamamoto is almost impossible to price, as scouts that like the righty have recognized potential areas for the youngster to succeed as a rotation arm, but his development profile still carries a high amount of risk to reach that level. It is plausible that the Marlins priced out Diaz at a range potentially higher than the OFP published above, simply because his full prospect profile suggests that Diaz can once again reach that higher ceiling should he mend a few weaknesses as he reaches the advanced minors.

From the Brewers’ perspective, the front office surrendered much potential starpower, but they transferred all of the development risk to the Marlins. It should not be assumed that any of these prospects will be the same player in both locations: perhaps Lewis Brinson receives advice on a mechanical adjustment in Miami that the Brewers Player Development would have overlooked; perhaps each of these prospects receives enough time to adjust at the MLB level in the pressure-free environment of Miami, whereas a contending Milwaukee club may have had less patience for shortcomings at the MLB level.

Additionally, trading Brinson and Diaz essentially “completes” the Jean Segura deal, and realigns the Jonathan Lucroy deal. When I last checked in, the Segura trade remained Stearns’s worst deal (in terms of assessing day-of and post hoc surplus value), while the Lucroy deal remained his best.

Now these deals look like this:

It is nearly impossible to effectively apportion surplus from a four-player trade package across two previous trades, but the basic story is that Stearns has improved his trading record. By extending Chase Anderson and trading away Isan Diaz and Aaron Hill, Stearns has basically completed the Segura deal. In terms of the original Lucroy deal, the remaining player development task is Luis Ortiz, although the young righty is also prime trade potential due to his current innings pitched ceiling and flyball profile (36 percent groundball rate in 2017).

Photo Credit: Jeff Curry, USAToday Sports Images

The 26 year old former 1st-round pick has established himself as one of the bright young stars in the game since debuting with Miami back in 2013. Over the last four-and-a-half seasons, Yelich has produced a .290/.369/.432 slash line from the left side of the plate, which translates to a sterling .296 TAv when taking his former home of Marlins’ Park into consideration. He’s stolen double-digit bases in four of the five years he’s been in the MLB, and his power has taken a step forward with 39 dingers combined over the last two seasons. His defense has graded out much better in left field than it does in center, though with Cain’s presence in Milwaukee Yelich will surely slide over to a corner slot. In WARP’s eyes, Yelich has already generated 15.8 wins above replacement during his relatively short time in The Show. It’s been suggested that a move to a more hitter-friendly park could help Yelich tap into further offensive upside, and the Brewers will have up to five years to find out if that’s true: Yelich has four more guaranteed seasons on his early career extension as well as a team option for 2022.

To acquire a young, cost-controlled star like Yelich, though, David Stearns was forced to part with some of the highest rated talent from his formerly well-regarded farm system. So let’s take a look at the players that will be taking their talents to South Beach using the Baseball Prospectus top prospects list published earlier this winter:

1. OF Lewis Brinson (age-24)

Brinson was Milwaukee’s top prospect from the moment he was acquired in the summer 2016 deal that sent Jonathan Lucroy to Texas. He had an underwhelming MLB debut last season (.106/.236/.277, 2 HR in 55 PA) but tore the cover off the ball in Colorado Springs. He mashed in Triple-A to the tune of a .331/.400/.562 slash line with 13 homers and 11 steals en route to winning Milwaukee’s Minor League Player of the Year award.

Brinson could be a legitimate five-tool center fielder when all is said and done and has drawn comparisons to Mike Cameron. The power is real and he’s regarded as a terrific defender, but questions remain about the utility of his hit tool. His minor league strikeout rate has improved over the last several seasons, but the prospect team noted that Brinson still has a long swing, is willing to expand his strike zone, and has plenty of swing-and-miss in his game. There could be a lengthy learning curve for Brinson at the MLB level and he may struggle for awhile before coming into his own. A 70 Overall Future Potential (OFP)  – All-Star center fielder –  role is possible, but Baseball Prospectus noted the risk for Brinson is that “He may not hit major-league pitching. Wheeee!”

3. OF Monte Harrison (age-22)

The Brewers convinced Harrison to spurn an offer to play college football at Nebraska with an overslot bonus after selecting him in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft. He battled injury issues during his first few seasons but finally showed what he could do during a fully healthy season in 2017. Harrison split the year between Class A Wisconsin and Class A-Advanced Carolina, slugging 21 dingers and nabbing 27 bases with a .306 TAv between the two stops.

His success in 2017 helped Harrison fly up the prospect ranks and he’ll surely find himself somewhere in BP’s top 101 prospects when the list is revealed. He’s still considered a raw baseball talent, but he’s another potential five-tool, 70 OFP player and and his skillset has been compared favorably to Brinson’s. He should be able to stick in center field, though he’s working to refine his reads out there. Harrison has brandished plus power at the plate and elite speed and instincts on the bases. But like Brinson, his hit tool remains as the biggest developmental question. Harrison whiffed in 27 percent of his plate appearances last season in the lower minors and still has yet to show he can handle the jump to AA, where he’ll face more difficult opposing pitchers. I wrote earlier this winter that now may be an ideal time to sell high on Harrison as a prospect.

6. 2B/SS Isan Diaz (age-22)

Diaz came to Milwaukee as a major piece of the deal that sent Jean Segura to Arizona during the 2015-16 offseason, David Stearns’ first at the helm. After an outstanding season in Class A Wisconsin in 2016, Diaz struggled somewhat in Class A-Advanced this past season. Carolina is a notoriously tough park for hitters, but Diaz could manage only a .222/.334/.376 slash with 13 home runs in 455 plate appearances for a middling .262 TAv.

Diaz boasts plus bat speed and though he struck out 121 times in 110 games last year, scouts believe that he could ultimately develop into an above-average contact hitter. He has 20+ home run potential if everything comes together, too. Diaz has spent plenty of time at shortstop but the prevailing thought is that he’ll eventually settle in permanently at second base due to a lack of arm strength, and he spent plenty of time at the keystone in 2017. If he continues to climb the ladder as hoped, though, he could wind up as an above-average, bat-first starter at second base. The BP scouts questioned his maturity and composure, however, and given his struggles this past season it’s evident that Diaz is still working to turn his raw talent into real production on the diamond. Diaz’s strikeouts are considered a problem and he needs to refine his approach and avoid expanding the strike zone so frequently, or his hit tool may not develop to the point where it allows him to utilize his power consistently. There are worries that the broken hamate bone that ended his season prematurely may his hamper development, too.

Unranked RHP Jordan Yamamoto (age-22)

Yamamoto was the second Hawaiian hurler that Milwaukee chose in the 2014 draft, and they gave him an overslot bonus to sign as a prep 12th-rounder. He won the ERA title last season while pitching for the Class A-Advanced Mudcats, producing a 2.51 mark in 111.0 innings to go along with a 113:30 K/BB ratio and a DRA- of 63.

Yamamoto didn’t rank in BP’s top 10 for the Brewers and wasn’t mentioned as one of the “next ten,” but I did recently cover him as a potential 2018 breakout candidate. He lives mostly in the low-90s with his fastball but has dialed it up as high as 94 MPH. He also boasts a plus curveball that he spins at some 2000 RPM. His changeup is considered below-average, however, and so is his command even though he’s never walked a ton of hitters. He’s also a tad undersized at 6’0″ and 185 lbs. Yamamoto’s most likely MLB role is as a reliever, but given his success as a starter to this point through the lower minors there doesn’t figure to be any rush to transition him away from the rotation. The possibility remains that he’ll become a useful #4 or #5 starter on a big league pitching staff.

So to bring in Yelich, David Stearns was willing to part with three of his top six prospects as well as a young arm who he himself has mentioned previously as one of his favorite under-the-radar prospects within his own system. But besides Brinson, each of the other three prospects probably has at least two years of development remaining before they are ready for a trial in the big leagues. All three of the positional prospects have significant questions about their hit tools as well. The Brewers are ready to compete right now and for the next several seasons, while Miami is only in the beginning phase of what looks like a lengthy rebuild. Ultimately this deal for a proven star on a cheap, long-term contract for four risky prospects with high ceilings looks like it will help both teams move closer to their goals for 2018 and beyond.

Stearns has already spoken this offseason about how the way the core group of players gelled and succeeded together allows the org to “accelerate the timeline” of competing. The GM has indicated that the focus this offseason will be improving the Major League club, whereas building the farm system was the main focus of Stearns’s first two winters at the helm. This is an exciting time to be a Brewers’ fan, as the team has resources aplenty in terms of both payroll space and prospect capital to work with while searching for upgrades.

Starting pitching depth is said to be the main point of emphasis for the Brewers this winter, and it’s easy to see why. With Jimmy Nelson set to miss significant time in 2018 after shoulder surgery (and his return to 2017 form in question), Chase Anderson and Zach Davies represent the only proven starters on hand. The team needs innings, and Brewers have already been linked to names like Jake Arrieta and Lance Lynn in the early going this winter. Stearns has been quick to downplay those rumors, as he is with just about any transaction his team is rumored to be considering, but he has acknowledged that he and his team have had exploratory free agent and trade discussions. He has also discussed how as a small market team, it is difficult for the Brewers to build their team through free agency and make significant commitments to players over the age of 30. The goal, once again, is to “acquire, develop, and retain young talent.”

With that in mind, it may not be surprising then to see the Brewers turn to the trade market in search of addition arms to fortify their pitching staff for 2018. While Dan Straily and Jake Odorizzi are two players who figure to be available that could be of interest, there have also been rumblings about more premium arms like 29 year old Chris Archer and 26 year old Marcus Stroman potentially being available in the right deal. Acquiring one of those frontline caliber starters will require giving up quite a nifty package of players, but the Brewers have the prospects to entice other organizations and the depth in their farm system such that brokering a deal for a multiyear asset like Archer or Stroman won’t “mortgage the future.”

If Stearns and company do decide to turn their attention towards the trade market, there are a couple of prospects within the system that it may be wise to try and build a deal around. The first is Monte Harrison. Harrison was finally able to stay healthy for a full season for the first time in his career and posted a breakout year across the Class A and Class-A Advanced levels – a .306 TAv, 21 home runs, and 27 steals in 513 plate appearances between the two stops. Evaluators have been drooling over the tools he was finally able to display, and he garnered praise as a true “five-tool talent” with a 70 OFP – future All-Star caliber center fielder in BP’s recent top prospects update for the Brewers.

Though Harrison may very well have a bright future ahead of him, he’s has yet to reach the AA level and is a few years away from making an impact at the Major League level. There are also questions that could limit his ceiling, namely the rawness of his baseball skills and the utility of his hit tool. Reports indicate that his swing-and-miss tendencies were trending in the right direction by season’s end, but he whiffed 139 times in 122 games in 2017, a rate of more than 27 percent of his plate appearances. Without further adjustments, that rate figures to only increase as Harrison continues to climb the ladder to face (and potentially be exploited by) more advanced pitching. There’s also the obvious questions about his durability, as well, after he missed significant chunks of time in 2015 and 2016.

The other player is right-hander Corbin Burnes. The former 4th-rounder won Milwaukee’s minor league pitcher of the year after tossing 145.2 innings with an astonishing 1.67 ERA in 2017, compiling 140 strikeouts against just 36 walks between Class-A Advanced and Double-A this past season. His DRA- at the lower level was 40 and it was 56 after his promotion, further exhibiting the dominance that he displayed over his minor league competition in 2017.

Burnes came in at #4 on Milwaukee’s updated top prospect list and certainly has an enticing profile. Namely, the righty has the ideal build (6’3″, 205 lbs) and advanced command of four solid pitches. The stuff doesn’t quite match up with the dominating results he posted in 2017, though. Corbin Burnes doesn’t appear to be the “future ace” that fans are always pining for. His changeup needs some work to reach an average grade and his curveball is inconsistent will likely settle in as a below-average offering. At present he lacks a true plus offering, which will make it difficult for him to consistently miss bats at the big league level. Craig Goldstein noted that without some further growth, the ultimate package is probably “an inconsistent back-end starter, or a candidate to shift to the bullpen and focus on his heater and best secondary.”

The Brewers have a plethora of young, advanced outfield depth (Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Troy Stokes) as well as right-handed pitchers (Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Luis Ortiz, Adrian Houser, Cody Ponce, Jon Perrin, Aaron Wilkerson), which helps make the idea of a trade more palatable. Monte Harrison and Corbin Burnes both enjoyed excellent performances in 2017 and scouts believe that they may eventually be destined for big things in the MLB. But there are reasons to be wary of each player’s continued development, and with Milwaukee shifting the focus towards winning at the big league level, now may be the ideal time to sell high on Harrison and Burnes if the right deal comes along and let another franchise worry about developing them. Certainly, if the Brewers are planning on playing that segment of the market it’s worth at least exploring if a package for an Archer or Stroman could be built around those two players rather than two would-be MLB contributors in 2018 like, say, Lewis Brinson and Brandon Woodruff.

Having grown up as a multi-sport athlete, the Brewers knew that Harrison’s baseball skills were still quite raw and that patience would be a key in his development. But what they couldn’t have accounted for all those years ago was that Monte would be snakebitten with serious injuries. In 2015, it was a ghastly ankle injury sustained when he slipped on wet grass while rounding the bases in a game for rookie-level Helena. The break required surgery, and the recovery and rehab process took some nine months. Then in 2016, he suffered a broken hamate bone in his left wrist while with the Class-A Timber Rattlers and was able to appear in only 80 games on the year.

Harrison showed glimpses of his five-tool potential when on the field, but had difficulty finding consistency and struggled to a .225/.331/.337 slash line during his first 204 games as a professional. Fully healthy in 2017, however, the tide began to turn for Harrison’s career. He spent the previous winter working with Cressey Sports Performance, working to improve his training regimen and core functionality while also implementing some mechanical changes to his swing. Harrison told BP Milwaukee’s Jack Conness back in April that “My plan is just to keep growing, each and every day, not trying to focus too far down the road. Every time I wake up in the morning, the first thing I tell myself is to ‘seize the day’.”

Monte did just that day-in and day-out during the 2017 season. He began the year back with Class-A Wisconsin and tore through the league, lighting up opposing pitchers to the tune of a .265/.359/.479 slash with 11 home runs and 11 steals in 261 plate appearances. In the pitcher-friendly Midwest League, his offensive output translated to a sparkling .307 TAv. After being selected to the Midwest League All-Star game and hitting two home runs in the contest, Harrison sent on his way to the Class-A Advanced Carolina Mudcats.

The promotion did little to stall Harrison’s momentum. He picked up right where he left off before the promotion, torturing Carolina League hurlers with a .278/.341/.487 batting line across 252 plate appearances. He clubbed another 10 dingers and swiped 16 more bags with the Mudcats, giving him a 20+ homer, 20+ steal season between two levels in 2017. His .305 TAv with Carolina was nearly identical to the stellar total he put up with the T-Rats.

Following his tremendous performance in the regular season, the Brewers elected to send Harrison as one of their representatives to the prospect-rich Arizona Fall League to suit up for the Salt River Rafters. Though most of the competition was a bit more advanced, Harrison acquitted himself well on the showcase circuit. Despite appearing in only 13 of the Rafters’ 30 games, Harrison was among league leaders and tops on his squad by popping five home runs in just 53 at-bats. He hit .283/.333/.604 and stole 5 bases during league play in the AFL, which wrapped up over this past weekend.

An outstanding performance in the Fall League tied a bow on what was a banner season for Monte Harrison. As a result of his fully healthy breakout campaign, Harrison shot up prospects lists and was recently ranked as #3 in Milwaukee’s system by BP. The writers gave Harrison the same 70 OFP “future All-Star” grade as another center field prospect he’s been compared to before:#1 prospect Lewis Brinson.

There is still plenty of risk with Harrison as a prospect, namely the swing-and-miss tendencies that caused him to whiff in 27.1 percent of his plate appearances during 2017. He’ll also have to continue to demonstrate that he can remain on the field going forward. Scouts did note, however, that he has reigned in much of his aggressiveness at the plate by the end of 2017. He drew this praise from John Eshleman: “Harrison is an 80 athlete with 65 speed and a 60 arm, with plus strength and bat speed to accurately earn the “five-tool talent” moniker. He has demonstrated the ability to impact games in all facets; his 6 raw power yielding extra bases, and his elite speed and baserunning instincts creating opportunities.” He also expects Harrison to be able to stick in center field.

Monte Harrison took a major step toward actualizing his incredible raw talent in 2017, but there is of course still work to be done. He has yet to make the vaunted jump to AA ball, which many say is the most difficult step in the minor leagues. He ought to get that opportunity at some point in 2018, however, and if he can continue to enjoy good health and keep on refining his baseball skills then it may not be long before Monte Harrison is talked about as not only the top prospect within Milwaukee’s system, but as one of the best throughout all of baseball.

2018 Milwaukee Brewers Top Ten Prospects (and more)

The Brewers are in a bizarre state of flux as an organization, with the most hyped prospects of the 2015 and 2016 drafts largely stalled, injured, or drifting backwards save for an exception or two, and several of the rebuilding trades hanging in a suspended state of anticipation. This whole line could easily turn around if Lewis Brinson makes adjustments at the MLB level and hits, or Brett Phillips continues to override his weaknesses with a well-rounded set of secondary skills. As has been previously mentioned, the 2017 surprise success largely vindicated President Doug Melvin’s 2015 deadline trades (Zach Davies, Domingo Santana, and Josh Hader combined for 7.5 WARP), and the greatest steps forward in the minor league system (perhaps for the second consecutive year, if one counts last year’s Brandon Woodruff campaign) belonged to the late Bruce Seid’s 2014 draft (Monte Harrison for certain, as well as improving depth roles from Jake Gatewood, Troy Stokes, and Jordan Yamamoto).

Again, none of this is news to the Brewers minor league fan, but it’s worth repeating in order to process the difficulties and absurdities that define player development: there is no linear path to baseball success. Now, one of the ostensible reasons for the necessity of the Brewers rebuild (a weak homegrown farm system) will define key roles for the 2018 big league club (Orlando Arica, Jacob Barnes, Brent Suter, and the aforementioned Woodruff) and perhaps the next impact outfielder for the club (Harrison). A system in which Harrison potentially leapfrogs Brinson is fascinating insofar as it seemed highly improbable even a year ago, but then again, unexpected outcomes are the new normal in Milwaukee. This is the club whose rebuilding GM, David Stearns, has made his best moves at the MLB level (Travis Shaw, Chase Anderson, Jonathan Villar, and Junior Guerra) rather than with the minor leagues (Brinson is his major hope here).

Stearns awaits his first impact prospect graduation to the MLB level. Will 2018 be that year?

Update (9:15 AM): to visualize the system in another light, here is a look at the last five drafts, including the top five picks from each and their 2018 organizational outlook. Ten of these players dot the Top 20, including three top tier prospects, another two are already on the MLB roster, and two other prospects have defined the MLB roster via trade:

All of this is a prelude to a difficult question about the state of the Brewers minor league system once more. For a system with advanced quality prospects (Brinson, Woodruff, and Phillips still make the cut as rookies), there remains much risk in developing full MLB roles. Phillips may be the closest of the group to his impact role, as the fantastic defensive centerfielder and Three True Outcome bat showed just how an “inbetween” role at the MLB level can look at its best. My favorite comp for Phillips is Jarrod Dyson (who also happens to be one of my favorite free agent targets for the Brewers), as Dyson exemplifies the “true fourth outfielder” role, someone who has evident shortcomings in terms of pure scouting but uses his strengths to define an extended career. Dyson is a 9.7 career WARP player despite never cracking 350 plate appearances in a season; he has become one of the most valuable players of his draft class and a true anomaly as a player that can define a career through a string of sub-2.0 WARP seasons.

As for Brinson, the BP Prospect Team listed one risk: “He may not hit major-league pitching. Wheeee!” In extended form: “Brinson has shown the ability to make adjustments at each level, but he’s also needed adjustment time. I find those prospects to be a bit riskier at the highest level.” Woodruff, on the other hand, does not exhibit the same type of risk as someone like Brinson, as the righty has never been held to All-Star ultimate roles. But, even if the “will he be a reliever?” debate is not as loud with Woodruff as it was (and is) with Josh Hader, it remains, hiding within the necessary adjustments in Woodruff’s secondary pitch approach. This is not an incurable problem, as it is worth noting that Zach Davies had the same back-end rotation versus bullpen question marks, and has since adjusted his arsenal and approach into an MLB rotational bulldog stance.

Any warnings about Brinson are worth extending to Monte Harrison, perhaps the most stunning solid Top Five appearing in the 2018 list. One can learn from Brinson’s MLB transition in order to temper hype expectations for Harrison, as indeed the pure athlete has already demonstrated the extent to which a professional baseball career will take its twists. 2017 top draftee Keston Hiura joins Harrison at the very heights of the list, arguably the best prospect in the system on the basis of that hit tool, but knocked down a rung depending on how one views the defensive scenario for Hiura. The second baseman-to-be will inevitably receive every chance he needs to stick in the infield, and then he’ll get every chance to stick in the outfield, too. One wonders if he might, at worst, follow a path blazed by Jason Kipnis, who certainly showed that an impact second baseman need not bring the leather year after year.

Corbin Burnes rounds out the new faces in the Top Five. The righty might exemplify the risk-hype wager for the Brewers system, as Burnes will almost certainly not meet the expectations of Brewers fans who are solely scouting his stat line thus far. Burnes became quite an interesting case study throughout the 2017 season, as scouting reports based on early season viewings had yet to capture his delivery adjustments that occurred later in the season, and almost everyone on Brewers Twitter had conflicting information about his stuff. It was interesting to watch the developments unfold, certainly a lesson to fans that (1) statistics do not mean a thing at the minor league level because (2) there is often significant disjoint between those stats and the scouting of mechanical adjustments and organizational approaches with minor leaguers. There are numerous player development hurdles to define role risk for prospects before one considers questions about information asymmetries.

What is intriguing is that Burnes may be one of the clearest prospects on this list to quickly reach his peak role, middle rotation starter.

Let us bask in the mid-rotation arm that could be Burnes, and destroy the narrative that “the Brewers do not have any aces.” This concern occurs again and again with Brewers fans, and it’s as unnecessary an application of unrealistic expectations that could exist within baseball fandom. Here, leaning on the successes of 2017 can provide worthwhile lessons going forward: Jimmy Nelson was never scouted as an ace, Chase Anderson was never an ace, Zach Davies was never an ace, even Josh Hader was never an ace. Brent Suter? Junior Guerra? ….well… Anyway, you’ve clearly seen the point by now: MLB pitching is quite a volatile endeavor, with very few pitchers piecing together consistent MLB campaigns (or even consecutive, successful MLB campaigns as regular starters). Should Davies follow up on his 2017 season with another good year, for instance, even he would be catapulted into some fantastic category, “MLB pitcher with three consecutive better-than-average seasons.” If Davies does that, and Burnes is even Zach Davies, the Brewers rotation will be solid beyond belief.

If you do not learn anything else from the Milwaukee Brewers 2018 Top Prospect list, hopefully you will walk away with the view of the benefits of having multiple advanced-minors, mid-rotation pedigree arms lined up. For that matter, even the value of having multiple players stacked at any position should be evident; now, the 2020 Milwaukee Brewers do not necessarily rely on Lewis Brinson in the outfield. Through the layers of 5,000 universes, it’s probably Brinson, but we also know that it could be Phillips, or it could be Harrison (or of course, someone else entirely). Each of these statements, each of these players, obviously means different things for the Brewers, who could be a 76-win team in 2020 after peaking with this current roster. So it goes: once you walk away with the lesson about aces, or #TeamDepth, or role risk, you gain the comfortable certainty of player development and team-building volatility. The best part is that many of these players are close to the MLB, meaning that Brewers fans will soon get to agonize over a new, tumultuous journey.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USAToday Sports Images

AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox (80-57)

MVP: OF Brett Phillips

After a down year in AA last season, Phillips re-established himself as a promising outfield prospect this season with the Sky Sox. He finished fourth on the team in plate appearances despite a few stints in the big leagues, lead the club in home runs, and was second in RBI. He struck out more than one would like to see (29.9 percent) but posted a solid 10.4 percent walk rate and Phillips seems to have truly settled in as an above-average defender in center field.

432 PA || .305/.377/.567 || 19 HR || 9 SB || .295 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Taylor Jungmann

Not too long ago, it looked like Jungmann might become a fixture in Milwaukee’s rotation. He was awful last season in the majors and minors, but bounced back with a terrific performance in Colorado Springs in 2017. Jungmann spent some time with both the big league club and the AA Shuckers, but made 17 appearances and tossed 90.3 innings for the Sky Sox this season. In that time he posted a 2.59 ERA, the lowest earned run average a Sky Sox pitcher has authored in that many innings this century. A DRA- of 78 agrees that Jungmann was much better than the league-average pitcher, but that still wasn’t enough to merit a September call-up, casting some doubt on Taylor’s future with the organization.

90.3 IP || 2.59 ERA || 4.04 DRA || 82 K || 39 BB || 4 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 48% GB

AA Biloxi Shuckers (71-66)

MVP: C Jacob Nottingham

Biloxi is a tough venue for hitters, evidenced by the fact that only two Shuckers received more than 300 plate appearances and posted above a .700 OPS. Jacob Nottingham was not one of those players, compiling a .695 OPS with 9 homers and 48 RBI across 101 games. That was still good enough for a slightly above-average TAv, but most important for Nottingham’s value this season were the steps forward he took behind the plate. He graded out with +7.1 framing runs, caught 40% of would-be base thieves, and sliced his passed balls by more than 50% from last season. It’s looking more and more like Nottingham will be able to stay behind the plate, now the bat just has to start coming along a little bit more.

385 PA || .209/.326/.369 || 9 HR || 7 SB || .263 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Aaron Wilkerson

When you’re a 28 year old minor league veteran, it can get tough to convince and organization that you still deserve a shot at the big leagues. Aaron Wilkerson was able to do just that with an outstanding showing for the Shuckers this year. He started 24 games and tossed 142.3 innings, both tops on the club. He struck out more than a batter per inning while demonstrating his signature control, ultimately earning his first call-up to the MLB this September. Now that Wilkerson has broken through on to the 40 man and into The Show, he could compete for a starting rotation slot or spot in the bullpen as a swingman next spring.

142.3 IP || 3.16 ERA || 2.32 DRA || 143 K || 36 BB || 12 HR || 1.07 WHIP || 37% GB

High-A Carolina Mudcats (73-65)

MVP: OF Troy Stokes

In an organization crowded with outfield talent, Stokes finally managed to stay healthy and stand out this season. The 2014 4th-rounder played in 100 games for Carolina and lead the team in OPS, was 2nd in home runs and runs batted in, and fourth in stolen bases. A diminutive specimen, Stokes has demonstrated plus speed to go along with above-average power, and finished out the season with a strong 35 game run in AA Biloxi. He’s certainly put himself on the front office’s radar with his performance in 2017.

426 PA || .250/.344/.445 || 14 HR || 21 SB || .279 TAv

Related Reading:
Stoked for Carolina

Pitcher: RHP Jordan Yamamoto

Corbin Burnes (who was the org’s minor league pitcher of the year) and Freddy Peralta both had excellent partial seasons with Carolina, but we’ll give the nod here to Yamamoto for spending all year with the Mudcats. The 21 year old Hawaiian captured the league’s ERA title after finishing with 14.0 consecutive shutout innings, struck out better than a batter per inning and didn’t allow many walks. He throws four pitches and generally locates well, and there’s a possibility that the former 12th round pick can be a back-end starter at the big league level.

111.0 IP || 2.51 ERA || 2.80 DRA || 113 K || 30 BB || 8 HR || 1.09 WHIP || 40% GB

A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (59-79)

MVP: OF Monte Harrison

Wisconsin was the worst offensive team in the Midwest League this season, so there’s not a whole lot of strong performers to choose from. We’ll give the nod to Monte Harrison, who only spent a half season with the T-Rats but was an offensive dynamo for Wisconsin before getting a mid-season promotion. Finally healthy, Harrison flashed the power/speed potential that made him such a tantalizing draft prospect back in 2014. He looked good in center field, too. It’s tough not to buy in when he’s praised a 2018 Breakout Candidate with tools that rival that of Lewis Brinson’s.

261 PA || .265/.359/.475 || 11 HR || 11 SB || .307 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Thomas Jankins

Within the organization only Corbin Burnes and Aaron Wilkerson tossed more innings than Jankins’ 141.7 for Wisconsin this season, and he certainly made them quality ones. A 13th-round pick in 2016, Jankins was considered a “projectable” pick by Baseball America due to his lack of exposure to high-end coaching. It seems he’s now thriving in Milwaukee’s ranks, utilizing a three-pitch mix to attack batters and generate ground balls. He has a starter’s build and repertoire and is certainly someone to keep an eye on going forward.

141.7 IP || 3.62 ERA || 2.53 DRA || 121 K || 32 BB || 14 HR || 1.22 WHIP || 55% GB

Related reading:
Meet Thomas Jankins

Rookie Helena Brewers (28-48)

MVP: 1B/3B/OF Gabriel Garcia

A 14th-round pick by the Brewers in the 2016 draft, Garcia has done nothing but hit since joining the professional ranks. The 19 year old lead the Brewers in plate appearances this season, had the most doubles, the third-most long balls, second-most RBI, and second-best OPS among batters with at least 200 PA. Drafted as a catcher, Garcia played mostly first base this year but also made over a dozen starts at third and a few appearances in the outfield. It will be interesting to see how well his offensive performances translate to full-season ball next year.

285 PA || 300/.420/.498 || 9 HR || 6 SB || .296 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Gabe Friese

Friese was an passed over in this summer’s draft and signed with Milwaukee as a free agent. After tossing 20.1 innings in Maryvale without allowing an earned run, Friese was bumped up to Helena to finish out the summer. In a league that is notoriously hitter-friendly, the results remained strong for Friese. In 33.0 innings for the Brewers, Friese yielded a 3.82 ERA and 4.24 DRA. For some context, that translates to a DRA- of 63, or 37 percent better than the average Pioneer League pitcher. As a 22 year old who was a bit old for the level, it’s tough to know what we should expect from Friese going forward. If his 0.8 BB/9 rate can continue, though, he’s likely to keep finding success as he climbs the minor league ladder.

33.0 IP || 3.82 ERA || 4.24 DRA || 26 K || 3 BB || 4 HR || 1.27 WHIP || 50% GB

Rookie Arizona Brewers (33-23)

MVP: 1B/OF Pat McInerney

Passed over after his senior season at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, McInerny signed with Milwaukee following the draft and was assigned to the AZL, where he was more than two years older than the average player. McInerney took advantage of the inferior competition. He finished second on the club with 230 PA, tied for the league lead in home runs, took the fourth-most walks, and had the league’s 8th-best OPS. He showed some versatility, too, playing both left and right field in addition to first base. He did strike out 65 times in 50 games, though. McInerney could be a guy that sticks around the org for awhile, but given his advanced age he’ll have to show an awful lot if he hopes to ever reach the big leagues.

230 PA || .243/.378/.487 || 9 HR || 8 SB || .288 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Joaquin De La Cruz

De La Cruz began the season in the Dominican Summer League, but after our starts got his first stateside promotion to Arizona. He wound up tossing the third-most innings on the club while posting the league’s fifth-lowest ERA and the eighth-best strikeout rate (minimum 40 IP). De La Cruz doesn’t throw especially hard, but does feature a splitter, which is the organization’s favorite pitch. He’s got a long ways to climb before reaching the big league level, but at the very least his statistics appear promising.

42.7 IP || 2.53 ERA || 3.10 DRA || 46 K || 20 BB || 0 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 56% GB

Related Reading:
Joaquin De La Cruz and Second Chances

Dominican Summer League (Brewers 28-43, Indians/Brewers 23-47)

MVP: 1B/3B Aaron Familia

18 year old Familia signed with Milwaukee last summer and completed his second season in the DSL in 2017. Only two players in the DSL hit more home runs than Familia this summer, and he had the 13th-best OPS among qualifiers. At 6’2″ and 170 lbs, Familia still has plenty of filling out to do and could add to his raw power potential. He could make the jump stateside next season, though hopefully his swing-and-miss tendencies (70 strikeouts) will improve as he climbs the minor league ladder.

237 PA || .289/.422/.455 || 5 HR || 3 SB || .318 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Freisis Adames

Adames got a bit of a late start to his career in comparison to others in the DSL, not signing until last year at 19. As such he was a bit old for the league this summer, and he was one of the top hurlers on the circuit. Adames worked the league’s fourth-most innings, finished second in strikeouts, and even tossed a complete game shutout. His ERA was about a half-run lower than league average, but a DRA- of 41 suggests that Adames’ performance was a whopping 59 percent better than the typical DSL arm in 2017. Hopefully he too will get the opportunity to make the jump stateside next season, where it will be easier for scouts to give us a clue about what sort of stuff Adames is working with.

74.7 IP || 3.13 ERA || 1.98 DRA || 80 K || 21 BB || 1 HR || 1.12 WHIP || 59% GB

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire, USAToday Sports Images

There are methodological shortcomings to both scouting and statistical reports. Scouting reports have shortcomings in terms of potential observer biases or preferences, limited looks (even some organizations draft a player after only one look), and privileged information (or, at times, even intentional asymmetrical information from clandestine “sources”); statistics are impacted by all the contextual factors present at the MLB level, but perhaps even moreso age, quality of competition, developmental cycle (i.e., first trip to a level), and proprietary development assignments that will typically be unknown to external observers. These factors diminish the meaning of minor league statistis.

BPMilwaukee benefits from work with the Baseball Prospectus scouting team, which consistently uses a radical “eyes in the field” approach to drive scouting reports that are therefore often divergent from, and perhaps less hype-worthy (a good thing), than many industry competitors. (One example here would be the 2016 approach to RHPs Brandon Woodruff and Phil Bickford, compared to sources like FanGraphs and BaseballAmerica). To supplement reports, which can be gathered from BP player pages and daily prospect summaries published on the website, statistical analysis can be applied to index contextual factors that could impact the perception of a player’s performance. To this end, I will publish a two part series detailing the contextual factors impacting Brewers regular (or semiregular) batting and pitching minor leaguers, which should hopefully add information to the use of scouting lines throughout the offseason.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, Outfield Michael Reed played during his age-24 season at Class-AA Biloxi, and the Southern League had a median age of 24; therefore, Reed’s age index is 1.00 (after all these years, Reed is still not “old” for advanced minor league ball).

For system wide reference, here is a key:

For this exercise, I indexed Age, TAv, Opposing OPS (oppOPS), and Park Factor statistics drawn from Baseball Prospectus CSV (retrieved September 13, 2017). These categories do not exhaust the information available, but they are arguably foundations for measuring the typical quality of the regular players in the league, the quality of opposing pitchers, and any extreme (or not) park environments. Note that I did not focus on Rookie classes (Pioneer League, Arizona League, or Dominican Summer League), as those leagues are not only (arguably) more instructional in nature but also representative of professionals at their earliest stages of development (therefore, I am not quite certain what Rookie class stats “say”).

I used two methods:

• Once I created an Index for each of these statistics, I weighted each player’s OPS by assessing it against the Opposing OPS quality and contextual factors. Again, 1.00 can be read as average; below 1.00 can be read as below average, while above 1.00 can be read as better than average.
• To provide a quality control for this rudimentary method, I used a basic TAv Index. Since Total Average is already scaled to many contextual factors, it more accurately reflects a player’s performance within a specific run, park, and league environment (certainly moreso than OPS).
• By using a 50 Plate Appearance cut off, I captured 72 batting seasons performed by 63 Brewers minor leaguers.

A few observations:

• The very best statistical performances within the minor league system have varying degrees of scouting support. Keston Hiura, for example, was advertised as one of the best bats in the 2017 Draft (perhaps the most advanced college bat, even), and Hiura indeed scorched the Midwest League to the tune of a .326 TAv; he did so while being young for his league (during his first pro go-around), facing solid to slightly-tough opponents, and a moderate park environment. Jake Gatewood may have been the surprise breakout of the season, combining new contact lenses and mechanical advancements to pummel both Class-Advanced A and Class-AA leagues. Monte Harrison was another strong tools prospect – really, a fantastic athlete – that finally played a healthy season. Harrison and Gatewood diverge in terms of the type of Overall Future Potential roles they have, but here they converge in making great strides in showcasing their tools in 2017. On the other hand, Troy Stokes does not necessarily have the full scouting pedigree behind his statistical performance, which makes his 2017 season eye opening in terms of assessing an organizational depth role. Garrett Cooper was advanced minor league depth who went on to post a .275 TAv in 45 injury-shortened PA with the Yankees.

• Much has been made of the disappointing season by the much-hyped gang of Carolina bats (Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Isan Diaz, and Trent Clark). However, it should be underscored that they did not actually have bad seasons. At worst, they had arguably average seasons when considering their age and developmental status (each facing a new league the first time through). However, what is interesting is that each player has new scouting reports on potential flaws that could indeed impact Overall Future Potential; for example, a midseason 2017 eyewitness report downgraded Ray’s role, and several other members of the prospect team confirmed hit tool concerns throughout the season. This type of scouting concern cycle was repeated for several of these prospects, but it is worth nothing this was also scouts’ first full look at Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg. In this case, one ought to hold the conclusions on statistical and scouting assessments for another season, as more information will be necessary to understand these potential shortcomings. Anyway, hold the hype (and really, be healthy about hype in the first place!).

• There are a ton of interesting sleepers around here. Some interesting reports are floating around regarding infielder Wendell Rijo, for example, but the second baseman has never really flashed the stats. This year, Rijo graded solidly both in terms of contextual OPS and TAv. Clint Coulter remained young for his level (Class-AA Biloxi in 2017), and posted some intriguing peripheral statistics to go along with his overall solid line. Granted, there are few emerging reports on either of these players yet, which leaves room for a healthy dose of skepticism about future role. But, it’s worth remembering that many of these guys are so young when drafted that they remain young even through several repeated stages of Advanced ball development; hanging around at that upper level, one wonders what might come of a guy like Coulter after Garrett Cooper received trade interest.

• In terms of melding scouting pedigree and performance, Brett Phillips might have the best season of any Brewers prospect. While many viewed his 2016 campaign as a disappointment, there were several aspects of Phillips’s game that exhibited strengths even through the perceived weaknesses of his stat line. Of course, Phillips was also quite young for his level. The intriguing “elite”-4th Outfielder-to-potential CF or RF starter put it all together in 2017, including a couple of stunning cups of coffee in the MLB (including a 2-for-4, three RBI night with an Outfield Assist against the Pirates on Wednesday). Hiura has the flashiest immediate hype and performance, but Phillips’s full season production and realization of one aspect of his MLB future could arguably win him “Best Bat” of the system for 2017. I gather that someone like Monte Harrison most deserves a “Player of the Year” Award, but Phillips should not be discounted when considering the Brewers system’s best players.

So where does one move from here?

Related Reading
Part 2: Familia / Feliciano / Ramirez
Part 1: Cooper / Gatewood / Hiura
Prospective 2018

Following the introductory words to the first installment of Midseason 3 Up 3 Down, one could conceive of the Brewers’ farm system as a system of tiers based on percentile and role. This is what is tough about ranking prospects: it is easy to be excited about many minor leaguers, but it is difficult to pin down specific role preferences for future value in a ranking. For example, catcher Mario Feliciano could easily take five years to reach his MLB debut, especially if he retains his defensive position behind the dish. But he could also be one of the most valuable future roles for the system, despite that length of development (potential starting catchers don’t grow on trees). Compare Feliciano to my favorite pitcher, Cody Ponce, or an intriguing utility/depth player like Ryan Cordell. Cordell has a much more certain path to the MLB (he’ll probably arrive within a year if he’s truly on the 40-man roster as an MLB asset) and a much clearer role (Cordell’s defensive flexibility and batting profile almost assure he’ll slide in to create another Hernan Perez). It’s incredibly fun to imagine a bench including Cordell, Perez, Jonathan Villar, and Mauricio Dubon, both due to positional flexibility and the ideal that each of these players could step in for an extended absence and probably hold their own. Ponce might be spinning wheels a bit in 2017, but he remains a quality pitching prospect for the Brewers with a relatively clear path to the MLB (there can never be enough quality pitching depth within a system).

While both Ponce and Cordell are closer to the MLB and have much clearer roles to boot, Feliciano is probably the better Overall Future Potential (OFP) pick for the system. This is just one such comparison, but comparisons like this could be made across the Milwaukee system.

Splitting the system into tiers, it’s crucial to note that a player without a potentially elite or better than average role is not necessarily a bad prospect, especially if they are ticketed for MLB as a depth option. The fact of the matter is, very few prospects will become 70 OFP star profiles (like Carlos Correa, for example), or 60 OFP first-division potential profiles (like Orlando Arcia). Here’s how that reality might look in the Brewers’ system:

Aside from focusing on potential MLB roles, there ought to be a set of classifications that recognizes prospects working in relatively clear organizational depth positions, and prospects that are clearly projection plays. Consider the 2017 MLB Draft, in which the Brewers made considerable gambles with their picks in order to secure long development plays. Caden Lemons is my favorite example of this, a 6’6″ pitcher with considerable room to grow into his frame and therefore become a future power pitcher projection; of course, there is a scenario in which Lemons does not make it to Advanced Affiliates, or suffers an injury through what will almost certainly be a five year development period. This adds risk to Lemons’s profile, and although his MLB ceiling is not yet known, one can recognize future potential in the projection gamble.

There are plenty of prospects excluded from this list, so it should not be taken as a ranking; Franly Mallen, Phil Bickford, Blake Lillis, Jose Sibrian, Joantgel Segovia, Quintin Torres-Costa, and Jordan Yamamoto are just some of the players I excluded from this list. By this point, we’re so far into the system that one can see how a ranking system loses it’s efficacy. Outside of front offices with proprietary modeling systems for scouting and statistical information, I’m not certain there is value in fans knowing who is the #24 prospect or who is the #38 prospect in the Brewers system.

For this installment, BPMilwaukee Editorial Staff (Nicholas Zettel and Kyle Lesniewski) were joined by Craig Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus Prospect Team).

3 UP (and one bonus!)
CF Monte Harrison, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein): Two freak injuries sidelined Monte Harrison in both 2015 and 2016, dampening the 60 OFP first division center fielder tag in the 2015 Baseball Prospectus Top Ten. Although the 2016 Baseball Prospectus list dropped Harrison to an excellent defensive right fielder role, the prospect’s injury issues have not kept the Brewers from giving him development time in center field. As Harrison advances through the system in center field, a more realistic potential MLB ceiling at that position should materialize. Now that Harrison is healthy, his transition from elite athlete to elite athlete as ballplayer is translating into highly regarded bat speed, leading to a hit tool that solves some of the puzzles that materialized even in his first Top Ten Brewers list. Perhaps the best part is (besides Harrison remaining healthy thus far and having a chance to truly form his ballgame) that even though it feels like Harrison has been around forever, he’s still only in his age-21 season and is younger than 80 percent of the 2017 Carolina League.

Goldstein on Harrison: Long on tools and short on [development] time, Harrison’s mostly healthy season has finally yielded bountiful results.

RHP Corbin Burnes, AA Biloxi (picked by Craig Goldstein): Corbin Burnes exemplifies the split between how fans follow the minor leagues and how scouts follow the minor leagues. The righty has posted phenomenal statistics since the Brewers selected him in the 4th round of the 2016 draft. Reports throughout the breakout 2017 campaign for Burnes have underscored the fastball and slider combination for the 6’3″ righty, while also raising questions about additional off-speed offerings (which would round out a starter’s profile) and delivery (which some suggest may be too high effort to repeat as a starter). Yet, here we are, with Burnes giving Brewers box score hawks fireworks every fifth day, which is unfortunately turning the righty into perhaps the system’s biggest hype case. I say unfortunately because it is clear that Burnes has an MLB ceiling, and it is clear that he needs work to get there (for example, Burnes might reach 150 innings in 2017, which means that the righty may need another year of seasoning in order to build up that true mid rotation workload). Burnes may be one of the best arguments in favor of turning prospect coverage fully away from statistics and toward scouting grades and reports, as there is a good chance those Brewers box score hawks hyping up “could Burnes be the next ace?” will be the first to turn on him should he reach the MLB at his realistic ceiling. None of this should take away from the righty, and obviously actual MLB runs prevention performances from year to year feature strong performances from non-aces (see Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson in 2017, and Zach Davies and Junior Guerra in 2016, as just two sets of examples). In this sense, even scouting roles and actual MLB performances diverge. A better line would be that “aces don’t exist,” and allow Burnes the developmental space necessary to turn him into the valuable MLB pitcher that he can be for the Brewers.

Goldstein on Burnes: I’m not convinced he’s not a reliever in the end, but the fastball/slider combo is legit. Waiting on that third pitch.

C Jacob Nottingham, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Nottingham, the centerpiece of the trade that sent Khrush Davis to the Athletics, was one of the more disappointing prospects in the system last season, and an ice cold start to 2017 only further dampened his stock. But the 22 year old appears to have finally started to put things together over the last several weeks. He’s hitting .352/.426/.593 over his last four week’s worth of games, bringing his season-long slash line to .253/.349/.407 with three home runs, which translates to a nifty .279 TAv in the pitcher-friendly Southern League. Nottingham’s bat was supposed to be what carried him to the big leagues, but his defense has been much improved since joining the org as well. A 43 percent caught stealing rate, +3.3 framing runs, and decent blocking numbers (along with a huge reduction in passed balls) should help quell some of the “can he stick at catcher?” concerns.

RHP Carlos Herrera, Rookie Helena (picked by Nicholas Zettel): When the Brewers traded Adam Lind to the Mariners, David Stearns orchestrated a nifty return that amounted to a complete gamble in his new front office’s abilities to develop low minors arms into players that could reach their MLB ceilings (or simply reach the MLB for that matter) and a tiered acquisition approach that ensured each level of the minors would be populated with projection arms. Now, the fruits of that trade suggest Freddy Peralta is the best asset, having recently been promoted to Class-AA Biloxi in his age-21 season. But, Carlos Herrera was perhaps the most projection-worthy starter on the day of that Lind deal, and it is arguable that that fact has not changed even as Peralta climbs through the minors. Herrera is notably taller than Peralta, which adds intrigue to early reports of velocity and ability to spin breaking pitches. One would almost expect that should the righty continue to ascend into a true starting rotation ceiling, he will not resemble the 6’2″, 150 lb., low-90s arm that made it over to Milwaukee on trade day. Of course it’s a long way from “6’2″ with low-90s fastball and spin” to “filled out starter’s frame with a fastball that reaches or sits in the mid-90s and an average or better off-speed offering,” but there are little checkpoints along the way (like a commanding 20 K / 3 BB / 3 HR in his first 16 innings in Helena).

3 DOWN
LHP Nathan Kirby, Injury Rehabilitation (picked by Nicholas Zettel): This should not be viewed as piling on to the lefty, who has experienced tough luck since Milwaukee selected him as a supplemental first round pick in 2015. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Kirby had an additional elbow procedure completed in 2017, which shortens his potential workload to the end of August (maybe) and developmental ball (also maybe). When drafted, Kirby was viewed as a two-headed beast, one that could potentially flash three above average pitches or serve as a polished, high floor rotational depth guy, or one that could have his ceiling derailed by command and delivery issues. Now, neither of those aspects of the gamble seem pertinent as the Brewers face another long injury rehabilitation in their pitching ranks (see most notably, Taylor Williams, Devin Williams, Daniel Missaki, and Adrian Houser). This was a system where, after 2016, one might have said with confidence that the lower tier pitching ceilings and projection plays were more impactful than the batting profiles, but it’s tough to double down on that statement given the injured impact profiles. If Kirby must wait until 2018 to gain innings once again, the southpaw will be in his age-24 season with 12.7 professional innings under his belt. It is difficult to see a starting profile emerging from this developmental pattern, but injured southpaws have proven to be ageless in the past, meaning it’s time to brush up on bios and profiles like Al Leiter (who like Kirby was listed as a 6’2″, 200 lb. lefty).

OF Trent Clark, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein): In this iteration of the development cycle, the good becomes the problematic: that strong hit tool that earned rave reviews for Ray Montgomery’s first draft, clearly signalling a shift away from the gambles of the 2014 draft, that strong hit tool that was profiled as leading the way for a center field prospect, is now facing more scouting scrutiny in the prospect’s second  year in full-season ball. It is worth noting that behind Gilbert Lara, Clark is facing the harshest aging curve among regular minor league players in Milwaukee’s system. In the worst case scenario, perhaps Clark repeats at Advanced A Carolina to begin 2018, which could have the benefit of smoothing that curve, giving Clark more chances to sharpen that hit tool, and find separation with the system’s other highly regarded outfielders (which could have the benefit of allowing Clark to solidify that center field role rather than that ‘tweener OFP). Establishing something of a Brinson / Keon Broxton (MLB) | Phillips / Reed (AAA) | Harrison / Ray (AA) | Clark (A+) center field pipeline would provide quite an organizational structure in the middle of the diamond.

Goldstein on Clark: He looked lost at the plate in my viewing, and has been playing LF when Ray is healthy and playing, which puts even more pressure on a bat that was going to be average-dependent in the first place.

RHP Jorge Lopez, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): It wasn’t too long ago that Lopez was considered to be the top pitching prospect that Milwaukee had, winning the org’s minor league pitcher of the year after posting a 2.26 ERA in the Southern League in 2015. Last year in Colorado Springs was a disaster, though, and Lopez was returned to AA to begin the 2017 season. His 5.04 ERA in 69.2 innings appears rather underwhelming, though both FIP (3.41) and DRA (4.29) were a bit more bullish on Lopez’s work with the Shuckers this year. An improved K/BB rate after lowering his arm slot apparently wasn’t enough to convince Brewers’ brass he could stick in the rotation. From farm director Tom Flanagan on Jorge’s recent role change, via Adam McCalvy’s most recent mailbag.”The starting rotation at Biloxi is filled with some pitchers that have really thrown well, and Jorge hasn’t been able to show the consistency that we wanted to see in that role….Jorge has all the weapons to become a successful Major League starting pitcher, and we are not closing any doors on that. But by moving Jorge to the ‘pen, and getting him on the mound more often, we feel it will be helpful step in his development.” Lopez was just recently recalled to and demoted from the big leagues, and his profile suggests that he should have the chance to become an impact reliever. Still, that result would be a far cry from the “future #2 or #3 starter” labels that were being slapped on Lopez after his outstanding season two years ago.

Now entering his fourth season as a professional ballplayer, the 21-year-old could have quite a bit to be frustrated about. He has been hampered by injuries in his early career, has not put up the numbers expected by a second round draft pick, and has not made it past low A-ball. He has only played in 154 games the past two years due to a broken ankle in 2015 and a broken hand in 2016. As a hitter who relies on his speed, power, and athleticism, those might be the two worst injuries for a player of his skillset to have.

Yet after speaking with Harrison for a matter of moments, I could tell right away he was someone with a fresh and refocused mindset and that will give the game of baseball everything he’s got. “My plan is just to keep growing, each and every day, not trying to focus too far down the road. Every time I wake up in the morning, the first thing I tell myself is to ‘seize the day’.”

Seize the day he has so far in 2017.  In 18 games, the outfielder is slashing .333/.489/.636 with five doubles and five home runs. While unfortunately there is no publicly available minor league exit velocity data, you can see in the many videos across Twitter that Harrison has been hitting the ball hard. As this Brewers Prospects clip shows:

Monte Harrison HR (5) #TRats pic.twitter.com/T7dhnXtlIs

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) April 22, 2017

It may be subtle, but Harrison’s ground ball rate is down from last season, and his fly ball percentage has ticked up as well.

Statistics courtesy of MLBfarm.com

As many of us are now aware, baseball is in some sort of a fly ball revolution and I asked Harrison if he was a part of it.

“Honestly, I don’t think about whether or not to hit the ball in the air. I just tell myself to square it up. If I square it up, it will be in the air. That’s with anybody. But no, no thought process to it. No change of the swing. More about better timing and being able to hit the fastball.”

It will be interesting to see if Harrison can continue to trend towards more fly balls and less ground balls. For someone who can square up a ball and hit it as hard as he can, he could do some serious damage with the ball hit in the air, and that is what fans have seen so far early this season. With that being said, he does however have a different thought process when he is up at the plate.

“No thinking, just hit the fastball. If they throw certain things, then I change my mindset. But all I am really trying to do is hit the fastball. Capitalizing on mistakes, that’s what is going to get you to the big leagues. That has always been my mindset, but I was going back and forth between getting caught up and thinking too much. I am trying to tell myself to stay fastball the whole time. Fastball, fastball, fastball.”

It seems as if Harrison has approached the 2017 season in a different way than in years past. Another new addition to his approach was his offseason, where he moved down to Florida to train with Eric Cressey at Cressey Sports Performance in Jupiter, Florida. Cressey, who works with numerous Major League Baseball players, “specializes in applied kinesiology and biomechanics as they relate to program design and corrective exercise; maximal relative strength development, and performance enhancement.” I spoke to Eric and we discussed Monte’s first offseason participating in their workout program.

“Sometimes what we see with guys, they can be very strong but with bad workout patterns. We saw a little bit of that with Monte. Our goal was to put some good stiffness in the right place. At the same time, he is a guy who could put on 270 pounds and six percent body fat in two months. He puts on muscle mass very quickly and very easily. However, that is not something that is super functional. We want to keep his weight in check, but also make sure he was moving better and heading in the right direction.

“It is not just the exercise you are doing, but how you are doing it. We want to make sure when he is going through his training techniques we are not sacrificing form for the sake of lifting heavy weights. We are not just trying to show off athleticism – we are trying to enhance it and make it more sustainable. I think those things made a really big difference for him.”

As I mentioned previously, Cressey works with many Major League Baseball players. This list includes the likes of Max Scherzer, Steve Cishek, and Logan Morrison, just to name a few. Cressey pointed out how valuable of an experience it is for Harrison to be around these players for hours at a time, to listen and to learn how to train and condition your body, as well as preparing your body for a full season.

“The biggest improvement I saw in Monte this offseason was his core control – his positional awareness. We talked about not just doing exercises, but understanding where you position yourself as you do them.

“I think the other thing it does is it makes for a much more efficient force transfer. One of the things we kind of joke about is that it is easier to make a fast guy strong than it is to make a strong guy fast. You put some strength in the right places and allow make them transfer force more effectively, it puts the hitter in a really good position to generate bat speed.”

Cressey noted that he was extremely impressed with Harrison’s demeanor and work ethic. Harrison moved down to Florida this offseason to train six days a week at the Cressey Sports Performance facility. Cressey really respected Harrison’s drive and commitment to baseball.

While Harrison’s offseason consisted of major strides and gains when it came to taking care of his body, training effectively, and refocusing his mental approach, there was yet another change to his game after his 2016 season. I noticed that Harrison repositioned his hands prior to the pitch being thrown. The images below show a drastic shift in hand positioning.

2016 Front View & Side View

2017 Front View & Side View

I asked Harrison about this, and my assumption was correct. Harrison told me that during this past winter, he and then-hitting coordinator Jeremy Reed decided to experiment with positioning his hands lower. The first game Harrison tried this new approach, he went 3-for-5 with a double and a home run. That instant success sold him on the new approach.

Harrison said that keeping his hands lower put him in a much stronger ‘set’ position, where he could feel that pause and power in the back leg prior to the pitch being thrown. There is also the addition, or resurrection, of a more pronounced leg kick that he had when he was younger.

Lastly, I pointed to Harrison his decrease in stolen base numbers over the years. Back in 2014 (his first year as a pro), the speedster was 32-of-34 in stolen base attempts in only 50 games. But this past season, Harrison was only 8-for-11 in stolen base attempts in 80 games.

“I am definitely a runner at the end of the day. Anybody you can ask on the team, I am definitely a runner. In certain situations in the game, you need to be smart about what you do on the bases. I am still the same speed level as I was before.”

So far this season, the 21-year-old is only 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts, but here is the bright side to that stat: 10 of his 22 hits have gone for extra bases, so the opportunities to steal second base really haven’t been there. Fans would all much rather see doubles and home runs than stolen bases, and Harrison didn’t seem to mind either.

While we still haven’t flipped the calendar to May, Harrison is showing major signs of improvement at the plate. He is feeling much more comfortable and it is evident in his production on the field. Many skeptics seem to forget that 6-foot-3, 220 pound athlete was only able to legally walk into a bar this past August. Harrison is younger than Orlando Arcia, Lewis Brinson, and Corey Ray. He was a two-sport athlete in high school who only recently devoted every moment of his life to baseball, and has been slowed down by two freak injuries. If the month of April is any indication of future success for Harrison, his five-tool potential may one day be achieved.