Related Article:
2016 Southern League bats

So we continue with the Pacific Coast League variation of the contextual minor league statistics for Milwaukee Brewers prospects. I began this series in order to judge each player within his own age group within his own league, in order to keep players in groups that are more likely to fit their own developmental standpoints. For instance, Orlando Arcia ought not to be judged on the same scale as a Garin Cecchini or Will Middlebrooks, two players with MLB experience that are receiving a second chance in the Brewers organization; while those two might be judged moreso on their ability to get back into the grove and produce quality outcomes on the plate, a prospect at Arcia’s age and developmental standpoint may be more likely to work on improving one specific aspect of his game. In fact, for his age-21 season, Arcia completely shifted his strike zone discipline, improving his walk rate significantly, while also striking out more; for all the complaints about the rookie’s slow-rising batting line and .212 TAv, Arcia is already posting a walk rate that has hovered around 10 percent since leaping to the majors. So, a project such as “improving plate discipline” could help to explain why other areas of Arcia’s bat “took a step back” in 2016.

Not unlike the Southern League, a wide variety of professional ballplayers work in the Pacific Coast League. Many second-chance MLB players work in the most advanced minor league level, giving the Pacific Coast League the look of an organizational depth association. Yet, a few supremely young players rush through, and there are even organizational depth players that remain young for AAA (such as Garrett Cooper, for instance, who is “old” for AA and “young” for AAA).

Not surprisingly, isolating players with more than 5 PA, there are many different performance levels, age-by-age, on the Pacific Coast:

While it does not necessarily seem surprising that the youngest players in the league lack slugging numbers, or overall offensive performances that match the general impression that the PCL is a “free-for-all,” it was surprising to see how quickly the slugging tails off after age-25. Slugging percentage jumps once more at age-27, but then players working in the PCL between age-28 and age-35 seasons generally do not provide large slugging totals for their work. Hypothetically, one might guess that if a player is at age-28 and slugging effectively, they get their chance to work at the MLB level, while glovemen or bat-control depth guys are more likely to work their late-20s seasons at AAA; this is only one possible explanation.

By my count, the Brewers organization featured 15 players at AAA Colorado Springs that had rookie status entering the year. The vast majority of these players were young or relatively young for Class-AAA ball.

A few notes:

• Without any regular age-19 or -20 bats in the Pacific Coast League, Arcia was basically tied for the youngest regular position player in the league (with Padres’ top prospect, Manuel Margot, who had one of the best seasons in the entire PCL).

• Contrary to popular belief, Arcia showed excellent discipline and excellent isolated power for his age group.

• Garrett Cooper had a surprisingly good batting line, which I did not expect given my assumption that older players would be held to harsher performance criteria at AAA.

• Lewis Brinson really stormed the league in his Brewers debut!

• While Brewers fans commonly focused on his MLB struggles, Keon Broxton put together a great AAA campaign, even (especially?) for the league’s median age.

• Kyle Wren did nothing but hit in 2016, but he lacks isolated power behind his strong AVG and OBP totals. One wonders whether he’ll get his MLB shot in Milwaukee, given the stacked tools situated in the crowded Brewers outfield.

• Garin Cecchini produced a solid line for his age group, although the slugging did not come for the second-chance rookie. Cecchini could potentially profile as a contact-discipline depth player, but the lack of power could hurt a corner-defense profile.

• BPMilwaukee featured Nate Orf as one of the Three-Up players at midseason, given his batting profile and utility glove. Hopefully Orf makes it to the MLB!

• One wonders whether Yadiel Rivera and Ramon Flores will stick around in the organization for their respective gloves; unfortunately, their bats did not come around in 2016.

Best Play: Leake didn’t look especially sharp through the first three innings, when he allowed a run on four hits. Following a leadoff single in the fourth, though, he retired the next nine batters he faced, and a complete game appeared to be within reach. That changed to begin the seventh inning, when Chris Carter lined a 1-0 curveball into right field and scampered over to third base.

Carter’s triple (+.142) gave the Brewers a 35.8 percent chance of winning, up from 21.7 percent when Tyler Thornburg closed out the top of the frame. With three opportunities to bring him around, the Brewers could have made it a one-run game. An infield lineout, strikeout, and groundout later, Carter remained on third base, and Milwaukee’s odds had dwindled to 13.5 percent.

Last week, the Brewers made their first significant trade of the season, flipping Aaron Hill to the Red Sox in exchange for two prospects. It almost certainly won’t be their last move — Jonathan Villar, Jonathan Lucroy, and Carter could all find themselves on the trading block before July comes to a close. Carter has rebounded from last year’s poor showing with the Astros, and since he offers two years of team control beyond 2016, he may fetch a handsome return in a deadline deal. More three-baggers (or, preferably, home runs) would only help his cause.

Worst Play: Guerra never could seem to get into a groove against the Cardinals. He gave up a solo home run to Matt Adams to start the second inning, and a few frames later, St. Louis would score off him again. With two outs in the fifth inning, Aledyms Diaz reached on an infield single; he’d come around on a dying quail off the bat of Stephen Piscotty, which Kirk Nieuwenhuis couldn’t manage to corral.

Piscotty’s single (-.147) lowered Milwaukee’s win probability from 53.5 to 38.8 percent. From then on, St. Louis would retain at least a 50 percent chance of victory. Once Guerra sacrificed a third run in the sixth inning — on a monstrous Randal Grichuk tater — the Brewers had a much smaller shot at coming back; the two unearned runs tacked on in the ninth sealed their fate.

Prior to Sunday, Guerra had put together a (very small) hot streak — over his previous three starts combined, he’d allowed two runs on nine hits and five walks, with 22 strikeouts.  That success ended on Sunday, when he labored through 5.7 innings of three-run ball. As the Brewers’ best starter to date, by a scarily wide margin, Guerra needs to bounce back from this quickly, or else the de facto ace will become Zach Davies.

Trend to Watch: Ramon Flores, like so many of the players on the 2016 Brewers, started the season with nothing on his resume and everything to prove. He’d played only sparingly in the majors before, and although his Triple-A numbers looked pretty formidable, those came in hitter-friendly leagues. Still, Milwaukee took a flyer on the 24-year-old, acquiring him for Luis Sardinas in the hopes that he’d amount to something.

For a period, Flores seemed to be living up to his potential. FanGraphs’ Chris Mitchell wrote about him on June 21st, noting that he’d improved his plate discipline and pumped up his batting line. But as of late, that progress has vanished: Across his last 15 games and 51 plate appearances, Flores has batted a meager .133/.220/.178. That cold streak, buttressed by an 0-for-3 performance on Sunday, has lowered his seasonal triple-slash to .221/.300/.271.

During this stretch, Flores has actually made a fair amount of solid contact — his 35.3 percent hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs, is far above the 21.3 percent figure he posted before that. So the .182 BABIP he’s posted recently should disappear, if he can maintain that. He still won’t hit for much power, though, as his ground ball rate has remained high (57.6 percent) and he’s started to pull the ball even more often (44.1 percent). We saw that yesterday, when he hit two weak grounders to the right side in three of his trips to the dish.

The third plate appearance? That ended in a strikeout, which brings us to the more unnerving element of Flores’s slump. A patient hitter to start the year, Flores has suddenly become much more aggressive: He’s swung at 48.6 percent of the pitches he’s seen over his most recent 15 games, compared to 41.2 percent before that. That’s helped to sink his walk rate from 10.6 to 7.8 percent, while inflating his strikeout rate from 21.2 to 23.5 percent. As Mitchell discussed in June, Flores needs to have good plate discipline — it carried him through the minors, and it’ll be what brings him success in the majors.

In all likelihood, Flores will continue to get chances in the Milwaukee lineup. He’s looked like a solid defender, and Craig Counsell has expressed some faith by sticking with him to this point. Nevertheless, every player has a floor, and Flores has scraped up against his over the last two-ish weeks. The Brewers can’t send him to the minors, so either he shapes up or he hits the waiver wire.

Up Next: Most of the Brewers will get some time off before the regular season starts back up again on Friday. Lucroy, however, won’t have a four-day weekend: Along with Wilson Ramos, he’ll back up Buster Posey at the All-Star game in San Diego. Hopefully, Terry Collins will rotate his players and let Lucroy see action in the Midsummer Classic. After an unsatisfying first half that has left the Brewers with a 38-49 record, a little victory like this would soothe everyone’s pain.

With Braun’s assist (+.147) aiding his cause — by raising the Brewers’ win probability from 47.0 to 61.6 percent — Garza seemed to settle down. The Brewers had scored just minutes before, on a Scooter Gennett solo shot, and Garza would make the 1-0 advantage stand up. He faced the minimum three batters in the second, fourth, and sixth innings, and his defense continued to lend him a hand: Two innings after Braun did his thing, Ramon Flores gunned down a runner of his own. All told, the Brewers’ odds of victory wouldn’t dip below 50 percent for the remainder of Garza’s time.

This offseason, I wrote about the Brewers’ general inability to collect outfield assists. This hasn’t changed in 2016, as even with Sunday’s plays, the club’s outfielders have recorded just 13 assists, placing them 15st in the majors. Amazingly, eight of those have come from Braun, who has never reached double digits in that regard. If he can retain his unprecedented arm strength — and if Flores can continue to make sterling throws like the one he did yesterday — the Brewers might not need the budding cannons of Domingo Santana and Brett Phillips.

Worst Play: Sadly, the outfielders’ best efforts couldn’t negate a bullpen meltdown. Enrique Hernandez homered off Will Smith in the eighth to tie the game at 1-1, and Tyler Thornburg gave it up in the following frame. Two singles and a walk, along with a flyout and strikeout, gave Yasmani Grandal a bases-loaded chance to knock in the winning run. On a full count, he did just that, letting a four-seamer fall outside the zone for the game-winning base on balls.

Grandal’s walk (-.349) eliminated any hope Milwaukee had of coming away with the win — since, again, it gave Los Angeles the walkoff. After Thornburg allowed his third and penultimate baserunner, the Brewers still stood a 34.9 percent chance of winning. Each of those percentage points ticked away with each pitch Grandal laid off, until the Dodgers had claimed the victory.

Thornburg’s loss, while painful, was most likely a fluke. Even with the two free passes he issued, his walk rate for the season remains respectable at 7.9 percent. Smith’s blown save, though, might indicate an actual problem. This season, Smith’s velocity has yet to impress; on Sunday, he topped out at 91.9 mph on his fastball. He’s begun to move away from his killer slider as well (perhaps fearing another injury). His whiffs and strikeouts are consequently down, making him an uncertain presence in the late innings.

Trend to Watch: [peeking out from under rock] Did…did that actually happen? Did Matt Garza truly pitch six shutout innings against a major-league team? Granted, the Dodgers rank only 16th in the majors in TAv, and Garza got the two assists plus this play, but still — six shutout innings, from a guy whose DRA imploded to 6.17 last season, is pretty damn impressive.

While Garza clearly isn’t this good, he might have remedied some of the problems that plagued him in 2015. He’s started to elevate his pitches again, especially his four-seamer. That seems to have helped reduce solid contact; according to FanGraphs, his hard-hit rate has declined from 33.0 to 23.5 percent. He’s also fallen behind 3-0 less often than last year, which had become one of his weaknesses. That, along with a higher rate of in-play strikes, has made his plate appearances shorter and his walk rate smaller.

Garza doesn’t yet have the velocity he possessed last year, or the whiffs. And it would also help if he returned to the pitch mix he relied upon before 2015. Regardless, a pair of respectable outings to kick off the season won’t dissatisfy anyone. Maybe Garza can keep this going, and the Brewers won’t have as much difficulty swallowing the rest of his contract.

Up Next: The Brewers have the day off today, which will hopefully help the bullpen recharge. Tomorrow, they conclude their West Coast road trip with two games in Oakland. Jimmy Nelson and Sonny Gray will face off at 9:05 CST in a battle of struggling, young de facto aces; then on Wednesday, Junior Guerra and Daniel Mengden will take the mound in an afternoon bout.

Flores’s single (+.071) gave Wily Peralta runners on the corners, in addition to a 46.5 percent chance of winning, up from 39.4 percent before. The Brewers would squander the opportunity, though; after Peralta sacrificed to move Flores ahead to second, Jonathan Villar grounded out to end the threat. The road team wouldn’t manage to put a run on the board until the eighth inning.

The second hit was a much-needed bright spot in a campaign that has sorely lacked them. Flores has notched a measly .225 TAv in 135 plate appearances this season, easily the worst figure on the team. He’s put the ball on the ground far too often, and his minimal speed has earned him just one infield hit. Nevertheless, the 24-year-old possesses some talent — he put up a .313 TAv in Triple-A last season — and he’s still a rookie. With a few more efforts like Sunday’s, he’ll start to inch toward his potential.

Worst Play: Another fifth day, another repugnant game from Peralta. He couldn’t make it through five innings on Sunday, allowing five earned runs and committing an error to account for one more. The Phillies inflicted the deadliest blow in the third inning, when Maikel Franco lined a full-count four-seamer into the left-field seats.

Franco’s homer (-.108) increased the Philadelphia lead to 2-0 and decreased the Milwaukee win expectancy from 36.0 to 25.2 percent. The Phillies would tack on six additional runs before the Brewers could get on the board; consequently, the Brewers’ chances of victory rose above 30 percent just once thereafter.

For 2016 as a whole, Peralta now owns a sickly ERA of 6.79. In zero of his 12 outings this season has he pitched into the seventh inning. His walks are up, he still hasn’t gotten many strikeouts, and he’s given up an ungodly amount of hard contact. My colleague Travis Sarandos wondered back in April how much longer the Brewers would stick with Peralta; nine starts of 5.85-ERA ball since then have me asking the same question. Milwaukee doesn’t necessarily want to win in 2016, but they can at least lose with dignity.

Trend to Watch: At this point, Brewers fans across the land know of Peralta’s awfulness. Instead of harping on that, I’d rather focus on something more positive: Perez’s production at the plate. Never known for his bat, Perez entered 2016 with a career .201 TAv at the major-league level. But he’s looked nothing like that this season, as he’s cracked a .310 TAv over 81 plate appearances. He added to that on Sunday, with two singles over four chances. The waiver claim the Brewers put on Perez last summer appears to be a hell of a move.

Perez hasn’t improved his plate discipline this season — he still swings at pretty much everything, and not enough of those swings make contact. He’s hit the ball a lot harder when he has made contact, though: 40.3 percent of his balls in play, according to FanGraphs, have been of the hard variety. Compared to his previous mark of 28.0 percent, that’s a massive jump, and it’s made him one of the more powerful hitters on the club. Among Brewers with 80 trips to the dish, only Chris Carter has made more hard contact.

This has pretty much no precedent for Perez. As a minor leaguer, he’s posted a BABIP of .301 and an ISO of .095, whereas he’s tallied respective clips of .362 and .171 this year. Craig Counsell seems to buy into it: He told the Daily Knuckleball’s Glenn Sattell that Perez is “just progressing as you’d hope a young player would progress.” Should cautiously optimistic Brewers fans believe in Perez as well? The high-strikeout, low-walk, swing-for-the-fences approach usually ends poorly, but Milwaukee has seen it pay off in the past. Perhaps Perez can fill the shoes that Go-Go has left vacant.

Up Next: The Brewers head back to Miller Park for a quick two-game series against the Athletics. Zach Davies and Sean Manaea will face off at 7:10 CST on Tuesday, followed by Chase Anderson and Jesse Hahn on Wednesday. Thankfully, Milwaukee won’t have to deal with Peralta again until Friday; meanwhile, Perez might get another shot to continue his hot streak at the plate. After finishing May with a 15-14 record, the Brewers have gone 3-2 record in June. They’re not ready to tank just yet.

Top Play (WPA):
Matt Carpenter’s first triple of the game scored Greg Garcia from 1^st base and gave the Cardinals a 4-2 lead (.154). They would also score the next 6 runs of the game before the Brewers got one back in the 8^th inning. Matt Carpenter had a monster game last night; he went 4-for-5, and fell a home run short of the cycle, as he hit triples in his final two at bats.

Of course, this triple also bounced off Ramon Flores’ glove. He took an awkward angle to the ball, but still had a shot to catch it before hitting the wall. That hit was the biggest blemish for reliever Carlos Torres. His other earned run scored off a double play, and he gave the Brewers two strong innings in relief of a competent Wily Peralta.

Bottom Play (WPA)
The bottom play according to WPA occurred in the bottom of the fifth inning. After Peralta struck out Mike Leake to begin the frame, he then allowed three straight singles, and topped that off with a walk The last single scored a run to give the Cardinals a 3-1 lead, but then Peralta induced a double play ball from Matt Adams to end the inning before any more damage could be wrought (-.111).

Peralta had an odd day. To start the game, he gave up hits to the first four batters, allowing two runs in the process, confirming Brewers fans’ worst fears that Peralta is just cannon fodder. However, he got the next three batters out, and went on a mini-roll in the second through fourth innings: three baserunners and no runs allowed. Then came that fifth inning, after which Craig Counsell mercifully ended his evening.

Not to be too simplistic here, but Peralta lost the zone at the start of the game and in that fifth inning, as shown in the strike zone plot above. If he can’t get pitches in spots where skilled batters will look to swing, then he’s going to fall behind and get hammered.

Trend to Watch
Human trade rumor Jonathan Lucroy had another good game. He went 2-for-4 with with a double, homerun, and two RBI., His at bat in the sixth inning was the last real chance for the Brewers to stay competitive in the game, but he flew out to left field. Lucroy’s first two at bats were the aforementioned double and home run. On each of those pitches, Lucroy got a sinker from Cardinals starter Mike Leake which was placed on the outer portion of the plate, a little above waist high, and he handled them both.

In the sixth, after a first pitch ball, Leake went back to the same spot, but this time with one of the six changeups he threw all night, and the first that Lucroy had seen. Sure enough, he got the fly ball. Lucroy seems to be swinging big on changeups this year. His ISO against these pitches is currently .316, but he has only 4 hits in 19 at bats, while also striking out 37% of the time. His career numbers are .147 ISO, .291 batting average, and strikeouts 15% of the time. While Lucroy is feasting on fastballs and making himself a more attractive trade candidate by the day, it bears watching on whether he can adjust back to his previous form on changeups.

Up Next:
The Cardinals will look to complete the series sweep this afternoon, with a first pitch time of 12:40. Zach Davies will take the mound for Milwaukee. In his last start against Cincinnati, he pitched 5.2 innings and gave up 5 runs (2 earned), while striking out 4. He’s been homer prone lately, surrendering 5 homers in his last three starts. Jaime Garcia will start for St. Louis. Garcia has had a strong start to the season with a 3.86 DRA. His best game of the season came against Milwaukee: a shutout with 13 strikeouts against one hit and one walk.

Lucroy’s homer (+.250) increased the Brewers’ win probability by a clean 50 percent. Before he stepped in, each club had a 1-in-2 chance of coming out on top; after he rounded the bases, the Brewers had 3-in-4 odds. Thereafter, it was relatively smooth sailing to a series split for the Brew Crew.

In the offseason, virtually everyone thought Lucroy would hit the trade block. Despite coming off a down year, both at the plate and behind it, he looked to be one of the best catchers in baseball, with two years of team control before free agency. The Brewers hung on to him, perhaps hoping his stock would rise, and so far he’s rewarded their decision. Over his last 39 plate appearances, he’s ripped a .424/.513/.848 line, upping his production on the season to .327/.393/.505. If Lucroy does leave Milwaukee in a trade, his hot streak will fetch a considerable return.

Worst Play: While the Brewers didn’t inflict much damage off Lamb, the Reds got to Junior Guerra. In the third frame, a one-out walk and a sacrifice bunt put a runner on second for Tyler Holt. He lined a first-pitch fastball over the head of Alex Presley in right, bringing around Ramon Cabrera and knotting the score at one apiece. Two batters later, Cincinnati held a 3-1 advantage over Milwaukee.

As the catalyst for the three-run inning, Holt’s triple (+.130) took the Brewers’ win probability down from 58.7 to 45.8 percent. Over the course of six batters, the Reds cut the Brewers’ odds by more than half, from 59.5 to 26.5 percent. Once Lamb departed, however, Milwaukee feasted on the mutton that is the Cincinnati bullpen, eventually winning the Mother’s Day matchup.

For Guerra, the second verse was pretty much the same as the first: In each of his two starts this season, he’s worked six innings and allowed four runs. This outing featured more missed bats, as he rode his splitter — which he didn’t throw at all in his first game — to six strikeouts. Most of the time, a 31-year-old pitcher two years removed from independent ball will flame out at the major-league level, but Guerra has turned some heads with his repertoire. He probably won’t be worse than Matt Garza!

Trend to Watch: The Brewers offense got off to a shaky start in 2016. Across 23 April games, they scored just 89 runs, an average of 3.87 per contest. With a team batting line of .223/.307/.371, they helped to sink Milwaukee to an 8-15 record in the month. In May, though, the hitters have come back from the dead, and they’ve got a taste for baseballs. Their triple-slash has improved to .311/.378/.551, which has allowed them to score 6.75 runs per game — the most in the major leagues during that timeframe.

While Lucroy’s aforementioned surge has led the team, he hasn’t done it alone. Chris Carter has continued to spit in the face of the Astros (as an aside: lol Astros), hitting .333/.353/.818 in May. Braun’s .452/.485/.710 line in the month illustrates his rejuvenation. And largely on the strength of his three-homer game on Saturday, Aaron Hill has notched a .414/.452/.724 May triple-slash.

More important than the performance of the stars is the absence of scrubs. Of the eight players with at least 20 plate appearances this month, all have hit at an above-average level. Lucroy, Carter, Braun, and Hill will cool off at some point, but if Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.300/.391/.450 in May), Jonathan Villar (.310/.394/.448), and Ramon Flores (.250/.429/.313) can stave off significant regression, the offense will remain formidable. On a team whose pitching staff has vanished overnight, a few extra runs per game couldn’t hurt.

Up Next: The Brewers take on the Marlins in Miami tonight at 6:10 CST, with Wily Peralta and Jose Fernandez getting the nods for the respective clubs. Zach Davies will start against Adam Conley on Tuesday night, and Chase Anderson and Wei-Yin Chen will square off on Wednesday to wrap up the series. With nearly one-fifth of the season in the books, let’s hope that the remaining 80 percent gives us some more late-inning comebacks and offensive firepower. (A sightly starting pitcher would also be nice, but we can’t have everything.)

The club decided this past week that they had seen enough of Broxton in the early going after he had gone hitless in his first 16 at-bats while striking out 11 times. To replace him, Slingin’ David Stearns purchased the contract of spring non-roster invitee Alex Presley from AAA. Stearns is familiar with the left-handed swinging Presley from his days in Houston, and the outfielder was off to a fine start with the Sky Sox. Presley is already 30, though, and owns just a .260/.299/.394 batting line in 330 career big league games; not at all someone who provides much upside or is likely to be with the team for the long-term; not to mention the fact that now all three center field options bat left-handed.

In selecting Presley the Brewers passed over a much more obvious candidate to take reps in center field in Michael Reed. The club’s fifth round pick back in 2011 was already on the 40 man roster (where Presley needed to be added after Zack Jones was shifted to the 60-day DL), he bats right-handed, and the homegrown prospect appears ready for an extended big-league trial.

BP ranked the 23 year old was ranked as Milwaukee’s 19th-best prospect coming into this season. Reed’s most outstanding tool is his eye-popping on base ability, as evidenced by his career .377 OBP and 14% walk rate in six minor league seasons. He’s a threat on the basepaths as well, having swiped at least 25 bags in each of the last three seasons, and already with five steals to his credit through 10 games in Colorado Springs.

Reed’s not without his warts, of course. He’s had a bit of a problem with strikeouts coming up through the farm system, though he has been able to at least cut his K rate down to around the 19-20 percent range in recent seasons. This will likely result in middling batting averages for Reed at the big league level, though his high walk total helps mitigate that.

Reed doesn’t offer much power, either, with just 12 home runs to his career ledger. He’s got an ISO of just .027 so far in Colorado Springs this season, though his career mark of .114 is a bit more palatable. He made some strides in that area last season, slugging a career-best 45 extra base hits between AA and AAA last season while hitting .269/.371/.410.

There’s also the matter of defense. Reed has only appeared in center field 77 time over six seasons and just once so far in 2016. However this may have more to do with the fact that he was often a teammate of the defensively gifted Tyrone Taylor than anything else. Reed has above-average speed and a 60 grade arm that plays well in right, so he should certainly have the tools to play a capable center field at the big league level.

I've been arguing for reed for a while now. He's their best option for CF. https://t.co/OjleneotQa

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) April 19, 2016

Reed is off to an excellent .378/.452/.405 start with five steals in 10 games for the Sky Sox so far this season. While some think that his ceiling will ultimately be that of a fourth outfielder due to his lack of power, there’s no better time to see if fringy prospects can grab a bigger role than projected than in year one of a rebuild.

Of the current slate center field options, it’s arguable that Reed possesses the highest potential upside, minus perhaps the injured Rymer Liriano (who at this point remains without a timetable for his return from facial fractures). Reed should therefore get a legitimate audition to cement his role in The Show before the next crop of outfielder prospects, lead by Brett Phillips, starts pushing for big league playing time. We’ll most definitely be seeing Reed in Milwaukee this season, but the Brewers should give him a his chance sooner rather than later.

Top Play (WPA):
Brandon Crawford HR, Top of the 3^rd Inning Ties the Game at 1 (.113)
The highest play by WPA defaults to the homerun by Crawford to tie the game in the 3^rd inning. After the Brewers and Giants combined for 15 runs on Opening Day, only three scored yesterday, and those other two runs scored on a double play and a fielder’s choice. Nelson had a strong performance, but he hung a changeup to Crawford, who destroyed the pitch. As a note, the winning run of the game, which came on a Fielder’s Choice by Matt Duffy, was lower than this homerun because it came with the bases loaded.

Worst Play (WPA):
This was not the best day for the Brewers offensively. After the 4^th inning, they only got two hits (and no walks), and looked overmatched at times against Johnny Cueto. The worst play of the game according to WPA was Ryan Braun’s fly out to lead off the 9^th inning against Santiago Casilla. WPA measured that out at -.089. However, I’d say that Ramon Flores’ double play in the 2^nd was more damaging.

The offensive struggles came after two promising innings where the Brewers only scored one run. After Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter singled to start the 2^nd inning, Ramon Flores grounded into a double play. The run scored, but the play was worth -.058, as it ruined the potential for a big inning. Flores battled in the at-bat, running a full count, but he hit a grounder straight to Crawford, positioned up the middle, for the easy double play. Even though the run scored and gave the Brewers the lead, it was still a negative value play (-.058).

In their next crack at Cueto, the inning once again started on a promising note. Jonathan Villar doubled to lead off and Nelson executed a sacrifice bunt to get him to third base. Unfortunately, Domingo Santana swung at the first pitch and hit a sharp grounder to Crawford, who nailed Villar at the plate, with a nice tag by Buster Posey. Santana would make it to 3^rd base on Scooter Gennett’s single, but he was the last Brewers runner to make it that far for the rest of the game. Cueto then retired nine batters in a row, and the Brewers didn’t really threaten to score for the rest of the game.

Trend to Watch:
To steal Julien’s line from yesterday: “It’s the [second] game of the season, therefore, there aren’t many trends to note.” However, Nelson’s strong performance deserves extra kudos. Nelson took a big step forward last year, making 30 starts with a 3.89 DRA and 2.4 WARP. While the Brewers aren’t expecting to contend this year, someone has to soak up some innings at an adequate level. Therefore, the results last night were encouraging. Nelson went into the 8^th inning against a quality lineup and held his own. Aside from Crawford’s bomb, Nelson looked good. Sure, the defensive miscue on Pence’s grounder in the 4^th led to the winning run scoring, but I think if everyone knew Nelson’s final line going into the game, most would have been happy and even expected a Brewers win.

Up Next:
An afternoon matinee to close out the series against San Francisco. Taylor Jungmann makes his 2016 debut and will face Jeff Samardzijia in his first game in a Giants uniform. We all know this is going to be a long season if you’re paying attention to the results, but it would be nice to get a win in the first series of the season.