In that last category stood Prince Fielder, who elicited tears of joy from a Brewers fanbase ready to watch Fielder and former teammate Ryan Braun get back to basics with that 1-2-punch celebration. Little did we know, we were watching the most valuable Brewers batter throw to another franchise great.

[/wipes back those tears]

It’s easy to enjoy Prince Fielder’s return to Milwaukee, first and foremost because the slugger was always a joy to watch and one of the club’s best prospects to translate on an MLB diamond. Make no mistake about it, Fielder was an elite slugger with exceptional plate discipline, traits that were often underplayed by fans due to his size and defensive performance. Given that Fielder retired due to an injury, and indeed survived an injury that could have taken a much larger toll on his body, there is a sense with the former slugger that it’s great to see him healthy, happy, and now having a chance to tour his home organization with a victory lap.

Yet, it was not always so rosy with Brewers fans and Prince Fielder. Because of the slugger’s defense, rated approximately 39 runs below average according to the Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) stat, and aforementioned size, there was frequent debate a decade ago among Brewers fans about when the Brewers should trade Fielder. Of course, there’s always this type of talk among fans, so some of it should be dismissed as common fan banter (we’re casually debating whether Jesus Aguilar or Domingo Santana should be traded on #BrewersTwitter this year, among other things, so, you know…); but recalling those halcyon days of the SportsBubbler (RIP!) and Journal-Sentinel Online boards, there seemed to be a different edge about Fielder trade talks. Thus, there was a sense, even during Fielder’s most elite seasons in Milwaukee, that many regular, diehard fans underappreciated the patient, disciplined hitter. It was as though, for some odd reason, Brewers fans needed to choose between Braun and Fielder, that the two couldn’t simply coexist as one of the most amazing 1-2 punches in franchise history; indeed, the most valuable 1-2 punch in franchise history.

For a time, it seemed justifiable to knock Fielder down a rung. For one, Fielder exercised his free agency rights by securing a gigantic contract with the Detroit Tigers, and thus had fewer years with the Brewers organization than some of the other franchise greats. Assessed by aggregating Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), which assesses a player’s batting and fielding performance against the typical “next man up” from the minor leagues, Fielder is a Top 20 Brewers player, but more like Geoff Jenkins than Robin Yount. This summer, here’s what we (thought we) knew about Fielder’s career:

If we recognize that WARP penalizes Fielder (unjustifiably) for leaving Milwaukee and (justifiably) for his fielding, one can rank offensive performance on a season-by-season basis to find the best performers in franchise history.  I constructed a Milwaukee Brewers baby-database during the summer of 2018, so I have relatively recent True Average calculations during this DRC+ release week. True Average (TAv) was the old comprehensive offensive metric by Baseball Prospectus, where .260 represented an average performance and the higher the number, the better; it incorporated all sorts of elements of batting performance, but used different weights for situational hitting, parks, strike outs, and other elements than other linear weights methods. Offensively, Fielder stands out much more among the greatest Brewers of all times:

Even by TAV, Fielder’s greatness might be undermined by the general dominance of Ryan Braun and Paul Molitor in the Brewers Top 20 (four appearances each); Fielder (three appearances) is tied with Robin Yount, which is quite good; Cecil Cooper, Braun, Fielder, Molitor, and Yount comprise 16 of the Top 20 Brewers offensive seasons by TAV.

Deserved Runs Created Plus (DRC+) comes to the rescue and restores Prince Fielder to his rightful place atop Brewers offensive seasons. DRC+ is read on a scale where 100 is average, and the higher the number, the better; 80 means a batter is approximately 20 percent below average, 120 means a batter is approximately 20 percent better than average.

First, let’s take a step back: what is DRC+? DRC+ is the new Baseball Prospectus comprehensive batting metric, which is designed as a sort of “inverse” to Deserved Run Average (DRA), BP’s comprehensive pitching metric. Baseball Prospectus features numerous articles introducing the stat, including this description, and a few advanced discussions of why it should be used (this is good, too. Read everything by Jonathan Judge). The gist of DRC+ is this: once you focus on what is expected at the plate, instead of constructing a basic average of outcomes, you can model run production in a manner that is more accurate, descriptive, and predictive than other metrics. What is interesting is that the batting metrics correlate in many cases, which means that where there are outliers with DRC+, the focus on expected outcomes, different park factors, and other contextual elements could lead to valuable insights into a player’s batting performance.

So back to Fielder, DRC+ launches Fielder to the top of the Brewers franchise, and it’s a rout. By TAV, Fielder was competing with a handful of other batters; with DRC+, he’s competing with himself, clearly a step above all other comers as most valuable bat. What is especially interesting about this new offensive ranking is that the “shape” of the organization’s most elite seasons changes considerably; Fielder now has four Top 20 appearances, which is better than Braun (2), Molitor (2), Yount (2), and (now!) Gorman Thomas (2); Thomas, that Prodigal Wallbanger, did not appear in the Top 20 by TAV, whatsoever, so the DRC+ develop calibrates his career as well.

Why does DRC+ “love” Fielder so much? Let’s look under the hood at those absurd 2007, 2009, and 2011 campaigns. BP publishes DRC+ Run Values, which assess a player’s Runs Above Average (RAA) according to each major batting component that is an element of the DRC+ model. This is a supreme tool, and should be used alongside the basic surface DRC+ statistic!

So, the obvious, first: Prince Fielder hit some of the most majestic home runs I ever saw, and he also hit some of the hardest laser beams out of Miller Park. But I wish fans took the eye test away from the waistline a bit and watched his batting approach more carefully, for Fielder’s plate discipline was awe-inspiring. Fielder would never get cheated on his first two swings; good grief, it would be difficult to find someone who swung harder on strikes one and two. But don’t mistake those gigantic swings for a lack of discipline, for Fielder also dug in and made pitchers work, and had no trouble waiting for his pitch to drive. To my astonishment, not only does this show up in Fielder’s valuable walk totals (BB RAA), but I also hypothesize that this helps to drive his strong Ball-In-Play Outs (BIP Outs RAA) performance.

Let’s compare Fielder’s very best seasons to those of his contemporary, Braun:

Unlike Fielder, Braun derived more of his run production during his elite seasons from singles, doubles, and triples, rather than home runs and walks. This has a curious outcome on BIP Outs, but it stands to reason that by controlling the strike zone more, limiting balls in play, and maximizing slugging outcomes, Fielder would be able to produce value in that contrarian way (namely, avoiding the batted ball in play). This last line is speculation on my part, and not a reflection of the DRC+ stat, and certainly an avenue for further research (to my mind, the BIP Outs RAA stat is a fascinating aspect of this new stat).

Let’s step back from the numbers: why does any of this matter? If you’re unconvinced about the new stat, think about the eyeball test you used with Fielder during his prime years. How often did you call him a better hitter than Ryan Braun? How often did you compare him favorably to Paul Molitor? How often did you place his elite offensive production at the top of the franchise? DRC+ certainly provides the statistical background to address these questions, and in being openly situated to offensive production through a different lens than other prominent stats, we can revisit our blindspots and perhaps find value that we previously missed. It turns out that Brewers fans may have had Prince Fielder all wrong. Even if your measurement for a baseball stat is to confirm what you already know in most cases, or even if you previously believed that Prince Fielder was an elite batter, there’s room to marvel at just how great he was once more. Take the chance to dig into Fielder’s career again, and maybe revisit some other careers, as well: DRC+ gives us the chance to find some of our other blindspots.

Finding Fielder’s reappraisal is especially sweet because it places an exclamation point on one of the best competitive periods in Brewers franchise history. Fielder sure did the big things loudly, but he also did a lot of things to quietly bolster his production.

Photo Source.

Using Baseball Reference multiyear park factors, the Brewers offense finished nearly 30 runs better than their league environment, and Baseball Prospectus park factors have the club performing even better; by True Average, the Brewers are tied with Houston as the fourth best offense in the MLB. According to Baseball Prospectus Batting Park Factor, the actual mix of parks the Brewers batted in was fourth toughest in baseball, meaning that the Brewers were likely to play in environments suppressing runs by approximately five percent.

Like 2018, the Brewers head into next season with a seemingly clear set of positions to improve, and seemingly clear prospects or internal development options to accomplish that goal.

• Orlando Arcia features prominently in calls for offensive improvement, as the elite gloveman suffered serious setbacks at the plate prior to his Triple-A demotions. Arcia’s glove makes roster decisions truly difficult, as the shortstop has impacted the game on the defensive end from the time he reached the MLB. If he bats anywhere near his second half line of .290 average / .320 on-base percentage / .396 slugging, the glove will play (for reference, the eighth batting order spot hit .229 / .304 / .357, so second half Arcia would easily clear that hurdle).

• Second base is a roster challenge, as Noah Nofz highlighted earlier today. It’s easy to dream on the future in terms of Keston Hiura’s potential, but it’s also worth remembering that the Brewers needed to improve center field for 2018 and still traded away their best development options there (Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison). A trade of Hiura is not out of the question should Slingin’ Stearns get requisite return. The trouble is how the Brewers juggle additional roster elements and free agents there, as opposed to the development pains (or pay offs) of sticking with Hiura.

• Catcher is probably the most popular fan option for improving the club, because it offers the flashiest trade opportunity (J.T. Realmuto) and a couple of the best free agents in the 2019 class (e.g., Yasmani Grandal). Yet, it is worth emphasizing the strength of the Brewers’ fielding behind the dish in 2018, in order to frame offensive performance. Neither Manny Pina nor Erik Kratz were that bad at the plate in 2018, and both were exceptional defenders. Using Adjusted Fielding Runs Above Average, which is a fielding statistic adjusted to assess the nuances of throwing, blocking, and framing for catchers, Kratz (11.1, eighth best) and Pina (6.3, nineteenth best) produced plenty of defensive value for the Brewers. Of course, Grandal is the rare free agent catcher that can produce both excellent offensive and defensive value….

• Right field is a difficult position to assess because it’s become quite barren behind Domingo Santana for multiple reasons. First, midseason trades included Brett Phillips, who would have been an excellent candidate for a glove-first, power-speed fourth outfielder to help boost that corner position. Next, Christian Yelich does not produce good defensive value off of left field, which raises questions about Ryan Braun’s future role (in left field) and the value of keeping Yelich’s bat in the order at any defensive cost (September-level production rendered that question moot for the time being). Furthermore, there are not necessarily advanced outfield prospects that would be considered strong enough to knock Santana off of right field. All this either makes right field the perfect position for an external acquisition, or for staying put with Santana.

The trouble, of course, is that should the Brewers simultaneously develop Arcia and Hiura at the MLB level, and keep Kratz and Pina, this entire series of completely justifiable roster moves could produce an offensive black hole in the 6th / 7th / 8th batting spots when things are going rough (or, in Hiura’s case, just getting started). This is where the Brewers’ most important wager occurs: they must weigh the long-term development plays (both Arcia and Hiura have clear “role ceilings” that are better than average at the MLB level) against the need to contend in 2019 (and produce runs to do so). All of this is potentially compounded when one reasonably figures that Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich cannot possibly be expected to be as good as they were last season; obviously this does not mean that they cannot maintain performance or even improve, it just should not be viewed as a certain outcome.

Baseball Prospectus True Average is an effective statistic because it weighs and combines a more complete picture of offensive production than other metrics, and presents the result in an intuitive number similar to batting average. A player with a .260 TAv is an average player. Aspects included in TAv that are not included in some other metrics are situational hitting and errors, plus alternative weights on strike outs and bunts, among other elements. So, let’s use TAv to assess the Brewers offense: with the descriptions above in mind, how do the elements of the club compare to the MLB positional landscape? What is the positional landscape?

Not unlike pitching staffs, positional ranks across the MLB are split among groups of players for each team. The ideal of plugging in a starting player at each position was always just an ideal, as injuries and platoon strategies have been widespread since the early 20th century ballgame; now, MLB front offices may simply be even more willing to try bizarre positional formats (such as the Brewers’ positional flexibility) and substitution patterns (think 2018 L.A. Dodgers, here). Thus, the split between players with 300 (or more) plate appearances and those working below that threshold is quite large.

It should be noted that outside of the corner infield positions, there are no other positions on the diamond where the median player and the regular player are better than average according to TAv. This should be intuitive in some sense, underscoring the importance of teams finding players that can work at least 300 plate appearances in a season. Of course, the median playing time at each position should demonstrate the difficulty of assembling even a group of players that can work 300 PA at a position; often teams will need to rely on a group of players that fall short of even that mediocre playing time threshold. This uneven playing time environment, set against a foundation that establishes the importance of finding a batting order full of regular players, should demonstrate why and how teams can make wagers or trade-offs with their players (for example, the club can weigh Arcia’s shortstop defense against the value of piecing together a couple of other options at the position; that’s just one example).

With this background in mind, let’s compare major 2018 Brewers batters to the median playing time and regular TAv for their respective positions (as grouped by Baseball Prospectus. Note: I have no idea where Eric Thames went in these CSV):

Milwaukee effectively gambled on both Cain and Yelich, who were team leaders in production and playing time beyond the league median. Yet this dynamic top of the order duo hardly exhausted the positions at which the Brewers effectively stacked regulars. Travis Shaw, Ryan Braun, and Jesus Aguilar were each fantastic compared to their respective positional leaguewide performances; Hernan Perez and Manny Pina were not necessarily as far from “average” batting production as most fans think. Outside of regular workloads, Domingo Santana and Mike Moustakas turned out to be crucial depth players, albeit for different reasons. Retaining contractual rights to Aguilar, Braun, Cain, Shaw, and Yelich should be viewed as extremely positive news for the 2019 club, even with all the caveats about regressing performances, etc.

On this model, the benefits of “standing pat” in free agency and trade markets should have some appeal, as one can see that weighing the defense at catcher and shortstop, or simply waiting for Keston Hiura and(or) Mauricio Dubon to arrive at second base need not be viewed as a drag on the offense. In fact, Hernan Perez can probably cover second base in an effective manner to open the season, allowing the Brewers to free up cash and prospect resources to double down on their pitching staff. Right field becomes an interesting question, as Santana’s closing month produced a final True Average that held up against regular MLB right fielders.

Of course, one can expect that David Stearns will not simply stand pat this offseason. The point, then, is to understand that there is no linear narrative about the Brewers bats improving in 2019. This group of players surged to close 2018, made some crucial developmental strides (in the case of Arcia) and mechanical tweaks (in the case of Braun) that could bode well for future performances. There is no clear path to improving the offense without spending significant cash or prospect resources.

The biggest news of the week seemed to come on Friday when the Brewers appeared to be on the verge of completing a trade with the Reds for Matt Harvey. The rotation is currently missing Jimmy Nelson and Brent Suter due to injury, and minor league performance issues delayed the activation of Zach Davies. Milwaukee is currently 18^th in team DRA over the season, but that number is heavily propped up by their dominant bullpen. Even though the team does need more production from their starters, it looks like they made the right call to hold the line on trading for Harvey.

One area where the team has noticeably struggled is in getting bulk innings from their starters. Part of this is by design as Craig Counsell and the front office subscribe to the third time through the order penalty, and will pull their starters to avoid overexposure. However, a team does need its starters to pitch enough to avoid depleting the bullpen. As I noted last week, Jhoulys Chacin is the only Brewers starter who has pitched seven innings at least three times. Currently, the MLB average start length is 5.5 innings. Milwaukee comes in slightly below that number at 5.4 innings per start. Matt Harvey is averaging 5.3 innings per start in 2018 in both New York and Cincinnati. In addition, his game log doesn’t show any recent trend reflecting increased durability over the season. Even before looking at his performance, Harvey was only ever going to slot into the five-inning starter role, with occasional longer outings. Milwaukee already has a bunch of those pitchers.

If Harvey isn’t going to provide bulk innings, then for the transaction to be worth the price, he’d need to provide quality innings. He has a 4.55 DRA this season, and PECOTA projects a 4.69 DRA for the rest of the season. His K/9 has rebounded in Cincinnati up to 7.1 from 6.7 with the Mets, but his Reds number and seasonal average of 7 is well below his career rate of 8.4. His swinging strike rate is 19 percent, slightly below last year’s performance. It’s also fallen every season he’s been in MLB.

Seasonal trends don’t paint a rosier picture. Harvey’s changeup is getting increased whiffs as is his slider, but the fourseamer and curveball are flat. However, he throws the fourseam fastball almost twice as much as the changeup and slider combined, still utilizing it as his go to pitch with two strikes, even if the other two options seem more effective. Since arriving in Cincinnati, the veteran has slightly decreased his fastball usage and thrown more sliders, but slider whiffs have fallen as he’s thrown it more. Maybe the Brewers could have persuaded him to change his pitch mix further, which could increase his strikeout numbers and effectiveness. That’s quite a bet to make with the playoffs on the line, but the Brewers have more information in this area than the public does.

Harvey is currently running a .279 BABIP as a Red, which is around his numbers when he was a dominant force in New York.  Much of that is fueled by hitters’ futility against his slider. While that pitch is still giving hitters fits, the improvement in results against his other pitches still leaves him as a pitcher batters don’t fear.

Fans love trades, and I think the team’s slump in the standings as well as an easy area for improvement left people disappointed that the team came close to consummating a deal that could have helped the squad. However, after looking into Harvey’s performance, he just hasn’t performed much better than the pitchers currently in place. There’s a chance that Harvey has some untapped upside that the current rotation doesn’t possess, but the odds of seeing that pitcher in Milwaukee aren’t particularly high. If the Reds were giving away Harvey, then a case can be made to complete the deal. However, there’s no reason for Milwaukee to give up a legitimate prospect for what Harvey is now.

Ryan Braun hit another homer on Sunday and has been on a heater since the All-Star Break. Over twenty six games, he has a .382 on-base percentage and .573 slugging percentage, with thirteen extra base hits and only eleven strikeouts. Braun’s True Average (TAv) has improved to .273, which would still be a career low but is well ahead of his .258 number from early June. Most importantly, he’s produced while only sitting out five games.

Braun is seeing more pitches to hit now than he was earlier in the season. Previously, pitchers had been pounding him low and weren’t afraid to throw balls, so long as he wasn’t getting anything in the upper area of the zone. Now, whether through mistake or bravado, Braun is getting more pitches in the middle of the strike zone, and he’s been crushing them. He’s also swinging and missing less, in particular at pitches that aren’t great. Pitchers weren’t going upstairs on him often through July 19, but when they did, Braun had no answers. That’s a sea of red in an area where he traditionally produced. Now Braun is still getting beat by the lower stuff, but he’s not swinging and missing at as many of those high balls. In particular, he’s tightened up against breaking pitches. Over his career, he’s whiffed on around fifteen percent of the breaking balls he’s seen, but now he has that number under ten percent.

Statcast metrics already were in Braun’s favor when he was in his slump. At BPMilwaukee, Sean Roberts wrote that he was underperforming his underlying numbers a few weeks ago, and his numbers have risen even more since then. Braun’s expected slugging percentage is now up to .539, which would be a career high. He also currently has a career high in hard hit percentage (48.2). His exit velocity is 91.9 and barrel percentage of 10.3 only trail his 2015 numbers. He’s a top twenty hitter in both of those metrics. So long as Braun stays healthy, which is always the worry with him, he’s a productive hitter who can hit as well as anyone in the lineup.

The Brewers will spend this week on the road. They’ll have a three-game series in Cincinnati, then go to Washington to face the Nationals. After losing the series finale against Milwaukee last week, the Reds proceeded to get swept in a four game series by the Cubs, allowing twenty-nine runs across the four games. Last week Cincinnati had a team DRA of 5.12 and it now sits at 5.18, comfortably twenty-sixth in MLB. The Nationals have the third best run differential (Runs Scored / Runs Allowed) in the National League but are 7.5 games out of a playoff spot. They’ve underplayed their Pythagorean projection by 7.1 games, which is second worst in MLB.

Rightfully, a lot of attention has been paid to his extremely unlucky .272 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), which represents a career low and wide margin of about 20 points. Furthermore, Braun has been hitting the ball hard according to Statcast metrics, which have his hard-hit rate even higher than in 2015, when he was in the top 6 percent in the league in that particular measure. That, coupled with an average exit velocity that is right around his career average since the Statcast era began in 2015 have led to an xSLG of .509, again a Statcast-high for him.

Those numbers may suggest that “Ocho” is due to turn it around and has simply hit the ball hard, but right into the defense. That’s probably true to some extent, but there are other indications that might explain the historically low offensive performance from Milwaukee’s most highly decorated player.

Braun is walking less and striking out more than his career average numbers, but neither are career-worsts. And the rate of pitches he’s swinging at outside the zone is at its lowest point since 2013. That suggests he’s seeing the ball and tracking pitches well enough.

The big difference has been in his contact rates at pitches both inside and out of the zone. While his in-zone contact rate is down about 2 percentage points, his contact on pitches outside of the zone is down almost 6 percentage points and easily a career low. It could be that Braun is recognizing balls and strikes but having more trouble hitting pitches that he used to be able to get to.

That could explain how he has so many well-hit balls without much success. Braun has a career-high line drive rate, and his best fly ball rate since 2013, with little to show for it, at least in terms of overall production.

Perhaps Braun is compensating for physical limitations, either due to aging or simply the back issue that has nagged him off and on all season. He could be committing to swinging earlier as he recognizes the pitch coming in, but has trouble adjusting as the pitch comes in on him. As a result, you’d expect to see hard-hit balls as he gets an early jump on them and is able to square them up, but you’d also see less contact overall.

For their part, pitchers seem to have adjusted to just such an approach, as they are challenging him in the zone to a degree he hasn’t seen since his first two years in the league:

Braun is getting more pitches to hit than ever and doing less with them, at least in terms of outcomes. Pitchers have adjusted to whatever the reason is for the additional swing-and-miss in the outfielder’s approach at the plate.

Depending on your outlook, you might say that given those career highs in batted ball type and underlying Statcast measures that’s a good thing, and it’s only a matter of time before Milwaukee’s long-time face of the franchise turns his luck and goes on a tear for the stretch run in a pennant race.

On the other hand, it’ll be up to Braun to make pitchers pay for throwing him in the zone, and thus far pitchers have not had to make that adjustment. Whether this is a season-long trend or longer, due to recoverable ailments or the start of age-related decline, a BABIP down season or a more aggressive but less effective approach, remains to be seen.

Baseball Prospectus: Milwaukee Brewers Team Audit

Make no mistake about it, Brewers fans and analysts, this is a trap. It’s so easy to polish off phenomenal expectations at a time like this, and rejoice that the Brewers get to play an apparently easier stretch of schedule entering the break. But the team is experiencing some injuries of attrition in the field, just as the offense has finally produced a stretch of 30 games averaging better than 2018 NL / Miller Park runs scored (more on that later). The rotation has done a fantastic job, as has the elite bullpen, which are only getting attention due to a couple of recent blow-ups and blown leads….mostly occurring in games where the batters still cannot get it together.

So in honor of this schedule, which is certainly a trap, let’s have some fun with 21 statistics that are neither here, there, nor anywhere for what will certainly Attrition Central for #TeamDepth. If the Brewers can escape this stretch of play with a 9-12 record, that’s probably correction enough for the run differentials and a sign that the war of attrition did not go terribly wrong.

Ten
Ryan Braun is having a somewhat tough year balancing some new fielding assignments, relatively part time play, nagging injuries once again, and hard-hit batted balls with relatively bad luck. But it’s not all bad for the face of the franchise: in 9.7 percent of his plate appearances, Braun has hit for extra bases (12 doubles, one triple, and eight home runs). By comparison, the average National League bat hits for extra bases in approximately 7.6 percent of plate appearances.

Twelve
For the season, much has been made of the Brewers batters’ ten shutouts. In fact, this is quite an important number for Milwaukee batters, as the total Runs Scored “zero” has appeared more frequently than all but one run total: two runs.

For the 2018 campaign, the Brewers have scored two runs more frequently than any other outcome by the offense. What’s worse is that this number is not really accompanied by very good run totals, either; five runs is very nice, and it’s good to see that number tied with “0” for second place, but after that both of “3” and “1” are below average run totals.

Sixteen
For all the criticisms that Brewers baserunners have faced for their aggressive style over the years, it seems that the exceptional baserunning performance of Milwaukee has mostly escaped fan consciousness. Undoubtedly this is due in part to the fact that the Brewers are not scoring runs at an average clip. But, according to Baseball Prospectus Baserunning Runs, the Brewers are the third best team in the MLB in terms of baserunning production. Translating this to stolen bases, Lorenzo Cain leads the team with 16 steals in 19 attempts, ahead of Jonathan Villar (10 / 12), Christian Yelich (9 / 10) and Ryan Braun (7 / 9). In fact, Milwaukee is the second best team in the National League in terms of stolen bases (58 of 71 attempts). Run, run, run!

Twenty
Only the New York Mets have attempted fewer sacrifice bunt attempts than the Brewers in 2018. Milwaukee has attempted 20 bunts thus far, with successful sacrifices 14 times; this is good for a success rate that is higher than the league average. Ironically, for the lack of runs scored, Milwaukee is not only a great base running team, but they are also posting average or better situational hitting statistics according to Baseball Reference. This occurs across categories: sacrifice bunts, productive outs, baserunners scored, and advancing baserunners (with less than two outs at third base and zero outs at second base). The problem for the Brewers is simply that they do not get enough batters on base frequently enough…

Thirteen
….and when the Brewers do get baserunners on, their tendency to hit ground balls results in the highest percentage of ground ball double plays in the National League (13 percent of GIDP opportunities). This is notably worse than the NL average of double plays produced in ten percent of opportunities. So much for strike outs being a bad thing!

Four
One wonders if the defensive flexibility of the ballclub might actually explain some of the troubles the club has in terms of scoring runs…the Brewers only have four players with more than 50 starts at one position (Lorenzo Cain and Travis Shaw lead as the most regular regulars with 70 starts, followed by Villar (55) and Arcia (53) in the middle infield). Jesus Aguilar does not even have 50 starts at first base this year; Christian Yelich’s most regular position is left field…for 32 games, and catcher and right field have also been impacted in the games started department (probably due to the respective performances of Manny Pina and Domingo Santana more than strategy).

I was certainly in the camp that expected defensive flexibility to be a strength for these Brewers, and I certainly do not think it is a downright liability given the performance of the fielders. But given the performance of the offense, I think it is worth questioning whether flexible defensive roles have an impact on batting performance for these players.

Nine
Why are the Brewers pitchers so good? Their groundball percentage is fading to the middle of the pack, minimizing their ability to produce double plays as well. However, Milwaukee arms excel at limiting fly balls, and their 9.46 percent pop-up rate is the best in the MLB according to Baseball Prospectus.

Five
For all the rumblings about the Brewers relief pitching hitting their regression to the mean, it’s worth noting that the pitchers are not terribly far above average in some stats to begin with. For instance, the Brewers rank fifth in the National League with 32 percent of their Inherited Runners Scored, despite inheriting fewer runners than the league average (100 versus 106 for the typical NL team). This is an indication of how the club is quite good with inherited runners scored, but not necessarily perched atop the league.

4.3 at 23
It’s too bad that the Brewers pitchers are not yielding more ground balls, because Orlando Arcia remains one of the best shortstops in baseball despite his lack of playing time. Arcia has the fewest games played of any SS in the Top 10 for Fielding Runs Above Average. Yet, the 23-year old glove-first fielder ranks sixth in FRAA with his 4.3 mark. Another statistic worth remembering: at 23, Arcia is tied for Carlos Correa as the youngest elite defensive shortstop, and among shortstops with at least 60 games only Ahmed Rosario of the Mets is younger (but he’s nowhere near as good defensively). If you like more straightforward statistics, according to Baseball Reference Arcia remains one of the very best MLB shortstops with 10 Defensive Runs Saved; only Freddy Galvis and Addison Russell are better in the NL.

Second Best at .336
Jesus Aguilar is having a fantastic season, boasting a .336 True Average (TAv) and 1.4 FRAA. That offensive performance is second only to Freddie Freeman among first basemen with 60 or more games played.

One
For their fantastic pitching staff, the Brewers only have one player in the top ten percent of all MLB, in terms of Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). That player is lefty high leverage reliever Josh Hader, ranked as 40th (!) with 1.54 WARP. No full-time reliever ranks higher, and only one pitcher better than Hader is younger (Jack Flaherty).

Ten
Many Brewers fans are suggesting that the club needs an ace in their pitching rotation. When I host chats on BPMilwaukee Twitter (@BPMilwaukee), the most common questions since the off season typically concern the quality of the MLB rotation. Throwing out the extremely advanced stats, let’s look at games started and ERA+ (a contextual assessment of Earned Runs Average). Here we are, half way through the season, and only ten clubs have at least three starters with 10 GS and an ERA at or above league average: the Red Sox, Cubs, Cleveland, Tigers, Astros, Angels, Mets, Cardinals, Nationals, and Brewers.

Seventeen / 40 Percent
If you’re interested in an ace, though, using the colloquial definition of someone who can lead a rotation in terms of performance and starts, who would be better than Jhoulys Chacin? Sorting all MLB starting pitchers by games started and ERA+, Chacin meets the strongest definition of good performance in a heavy workload.

Of course, including advanced contextual statistics, it is worth questioning whether the club will see some course correction from the starting pitchers. Here, Junior Guerra’s 4.69 DRA is the best among Brewers starters with at least 60 innings pitched. That’s good for 71st in the MLB. Yet, once Guerra is working between the lines, his splitter remains one of the best in the game at inducing swings-and-misses; thus far Guerra is yielding nearly 40 percent whiffs-per-swing on the split (only slightly lagging his 2016 performance that put that pitch on the map).

Thirteen / Forty-Three
Overall, the Brewers pitching rotation forms quite a strong unit: the club’s starting pitchers have 13 Runs Prevented as a group. This performance helps the team maximize a phenomenal bullpen, as the Brewers can frequently keep the game close. With a bullpen that has prevented 43 runs, the starting pitchers are often handing close games to relief pitchers that are ready to help convert those games into wins.

Six
When is a better than average offense not really that good? Over the last 30 games for the Brewers, it turns out! Those big ticket runs totals against Philadelphia have gone a long way toward improving Milwaukee’s season long offensive figures….

….but for all that, over the last 30 games the most frequently Runs Scored total for the Brewers has declined from the season leading 2 RS. Twenty percent of the Brewers’ games since they returned from Minnesota have ended with 1 RS for Milwaukee. If you missed seeing 2 RS, do not worry, for that remained the second most frequent run total over that time.

Seventeenth in Right
Domingo Santana is a tough player to figure out right now. If someone had told Brewers fans that the right fielder would have -2.6 FRAA roughly halfway through the season, most would have expected that he would be in the running for one of the most valuable right fielders in the MLB. Alas, in True Average (TAv), Santana’s mark of .259 (i.e., roughly league average) ranks 17th of 24 MLB RF with 60 or more games played.

Fourteen
Perhaps Lorenzo Cain is able to produce so many stolen bases in part because he’s on first base so frequently: the Brewers Center Fielder is drawing walks in 13.8 percent of his plate appearances!

Nineteen (Two)
Without park adjustment, across the 2018 MLB the Brewers’ offense currently ranks 19th in terms of Runs Scored. Their pitching staff currently ranks 2nd in terms of Runs Allowed.

Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports Images

Ryan Braun went 6-12 over the weekend which includes a double, a triple and two home runs, and two hits in each game. It’s Braun first streak of three multi-hit games in a row since April 24-26.

It’s been a difficult season for Braun. He once again landed on the disabled list, but when he’s been active, he hasn’t been productive. Braun is on pace to post the lowest TAv (.258) of his career. Pitchers are now throwing him strikes on 50.8 percent of their pitches, the highest rate Braun has seen in MLB. He’s swinging less on pitches both in and out of the zone, but unfortunately the recipe of facing more strikes and swinging less is not helping Braun’s numbers. Braun’s contact rates are down from last year and his whiffing on almost a quarter of his swings.

When looking at Braun’s numbers this season compared with his career, there are a few noticeable differences. There’s been a slight shift in how pitchers approach Braun. While they’ve always preferred to keep the ball low, the numbers are more extreme this season. Pitchers are really trying to pound him on those low pitches away from him. That’s not an area where many batters are going to find success.

Braun has also expanded his zone in a productive manner. He’s always been disciplined on away pitches. There’s a lot of blue on the right side of that zone, as he’s always laid off those pitches. In 2018, Braun is chasing those pitches located outside. He’s not generating any productivity off those pitches though. Not only is there no power produced in those swings, he’s also not even slapping those pitches for singles. You can’t pin all of his problems only on these pitches, but these unproductive swings are dragging down his numbers.

Traditionally, Ryan Braun gets most of his power in the upper half of the zone located middle and inside, but he’s not turning on those pitches now. There are some singles in those zones, but more of his power is on pitches away in the zone, which may be evidence of a slower bat which can’t turn on the pitches he used to feast on.

In Philadelphia, there were some encouraging signs. On Friday and Saturday, all of Braun’s hits came on pitches in the middle of the zone, where he’s struggled more than usual this season. During Sunday’s game, his double came on a pitch in his traditional power zone and his single came on a 99 MPH fastball which was up and away. That’s an absurdly tough pitch to hit. While Braun didn’t tattoo it, he went up the middle against a shifted infield and got on base. There are no guarantees going forward, but if Braun can start to approach even his numbers from last year, the Brewers can start to sustain a more consistent offense that won’t go quiet for a week at a time.

Craig Counsell made an aggressive move during Sunday’s game when he lifted Brandon Woodruff for a pinch hitter in the fifth inning. At the time of the move, the Phillies were ahead 1-0 but the Brewers had the bases loaded with only one out. In 2018, a team can expect to score 1.5 runs in that situation. Woodruff had a .124 TAv for the season coming into the game and he’s only singled three times in his nineteen career plate appearances. The pinch hitter, Hernan Perez, struck out, but it’s not unreasonable to believe that he had a better chance of getting a hit than Woodruff.

Results aside, was pulling Woodruff the best tactical decision to maximize the Brewers’ chances of winning the game? Woodruff had already reached sixty seven pitches, but after a rough first inning in which he needed twenty-five pitches to complete the frame, he’d been cruising and it’s not unreasonable to think that he had enough pitches to get to the sixth inning. In the fourth inning, his fastball was still touching 96 mph, which was around his maximum reading for the day, so he didn’t show any overt signs of tiring. The bottom of the Phillies’ order was due up in the next inning as well, so Woodruff wasn’t about to face the third time through the order penalty.

Even if Counsell could have counted on at least one more inning from Woodruff, it’s important to consider the thought process at the time. While there’s no guarantee that Perez gets a hit as a pinch hitter, he’s also more likely to produce a hit that will score multiple runs. Considering that the top bullpen arms were fairly well rested after two easy games on Friday and Saturday, one of the best bullpens by DRA should have been up for the challenge and may have been, if Shaw didn’t commit a throwing error. While there’s no excuse for walking a batter when the bases are already loaded, Dan Jennings didn’t make mistakes with his location in the fifth inning; the Phillies just got enough of the pitches to scratch across some runs.

Milwaukee returns home this week for a series against the Cubs, then the return series with Philadelphia. The Cubs are currently a half game behind the Brewers for first place in the division, having gone 4-2 against the Phillies and Pirates last week. Chicago currently has the best run differential in the National League, bolstered by their 7-1 record and plus twenty run differential this season against the Brewers.

Photo Credit: Eric Hartline, USA Today Sports Images

The first Deserved Run Average (DRA) statistics are available for the 2018 season, although they should be published with a grain of salt because the corresponding Run Elements are not yet posted on Baseball Prospectus. As always, the statistic was improved over the offseason, and a new article about the improvements is forthcoming at Baseball Prospectus (keep your eyes out for it, probably next week). In the mean time, as the U.S. Census says, let’s Compare With Caution!

So, obviously since DRA are available, it’s time to cue the time honored #WhyDoesDRAHateMyTeam? twice over, as both the Brewers and Cubs probable starters for this series have….suspect underlying performances thus far:

In the full extent of the Brewers pitching staff, the recent pitching surge that is basically keeping the club on a Playoff Contending pace can be called into question by both DRA and contextual Fielding Independent Pitching (cFIP) statistics. Below is a table of Runs Prevented estimates, using (1) Baseball Reference three-year park factors for Miller Park, (2) Deserved Run Average, and (3) cFIP averages scaled to the aforementioned park environment. For more on Runs Prevented, read this.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff is still expected to prevent runs at an above average rate for the season (probably a +14 RA season), but that’s quite a long distance from their current exceptional performance. What’s going on? Well, the early inefficiencies in the field have been nicely wrapped up, and now the Brewers couple one of the top ground ball pitching staffs in the MLB with one of the most efficient ground ball defenses in the MLB. In fact, only Cleveland is better thus far. In many ways, this should not be surprising, as one could have surmised that the offseason pitching acquisitions were largely designed to feed ground balls to an excellent ground ball defense. So here we are: Milwaukee is in an odd place for underlying run elements, as the pitching staff on the whole is not expected to be a strike out machine, and Miller Park will likely encourage walks and home runs from opposing bats. Given these elements, one might expect that the Brewers outperforming their peripheral numbers will be a story all year.

Entering Chicago, what is especially exciting is that the Brewers bats are heating up. One might readily attribute that performance to the return of Christian Yelich to the Brewers batting order, in order to form a killer 1-2 punch with Lorenzo Cain. Indeed, according to Baseball Reference the Brewers boast average lead off production (including the all-important .333 On Base Percentage [OBP]), and notably better than average production from the second spot (118 OPS+, including .342 OBP). But, the remainder of the Brewers order is starting to thaw out, which is allowing the club to produce runs throughout the batting order. These production types range from singles machine Jonathan Villar to mashers like Travis Shaw and Eric Thames.

Thus far, a few question marks remain across the diamond, specifically regarding right fielder Domingo Santana. Despite concerns about a lack of playing time for Santana after the Brewers acquired Cain and Yelich, the right fielder has played in 23 of the club’s 25 games thus far, essentially working as a starter (Santana has the third most PA among position players). But, Santana has yet to get going, basically producing at the same level as Orlando Arcia without the prime defensive position and production (Arcia at least has 2.3 Fielding Runs Above Average to his name, and serves a crucial function as one of the ground ball efficiency fielders for the Brewers infield). Arcia can be hidden at the bottom of the batting order for time immemorial so long as the glove continues to stick; to that end, Baseball Prospectus ranks Arcia as the third best fielding short stop in the MLB thus far in 2018 (after ranking fourth best in 2017). Santana remains one of the worst right fielders in baseball, which is fine when the bat carries the profile; one wonders with Jesus Aguilar smoking the ball around the ballpark whether the Brewers will continue to employ Braun / Cain / Yelich outfielders for the time being.

Entering Wrigley Field, the Brewers have their work cut out for them. The club is playing great baseball, even with the caveat that they’re playing poor teams. But that’s always a catch-22 for MLB clubs: if good teams fail to beat the bad teams, fans rail against them (“The Brewers play down to their competition!”), but if good teams whip bad teams, fans move to some other narrative (“The Brewers can beat bad teams but can they beat good teams?”). So, the excellent Brewers pitching staff squares off against the phenomenal Cubs bats, a true strength-versus-strength match-up. Milwaukee arms will attempt to coax Cubs bats to keep the ball on the ground and hopefully get some help from a Chicago that has yet to thaw out in 2018. Meanwhile, the scuffling Cubs arms are nowhere as good as many expected thus far, and they face a Brewers offense that is finally participating throughout the batting order. It’s never to early to begin testing assumptions, but it’s worth remembering that very little hangs on this series, save for the underrated good guys taking on the Evil Empire.

Photo Credit: Denny Medley, USA Today Sports Images

Baseball Prospectus:
Why PECOTA Hates Your Favorite Team
13 Noteworthy Projections

Since PECOTA is a probabilistic model, which means that it is designed to reflect the most probable outcome in a distribution of projected outcomes, Brewers fans should keep in mind that “84” is not some special or magic number. As demonstrated last season, a club that was expected (at best) to flirt with .500 surged ahead and competed for the playoffs, but that surge was not even greater than one standard deviation away from the projected win total. These Brewers could indeed use their strengths to once again push the club ahead of schedule by contending for a playoff spot or winning the division in 2018, or they could indeed sputter in development patterns or role depreciation and return closer to .500. What PECOTA reflects is that the Brewers’ big offseason moves (trading for Christian Yelich, signing Lorenzo Cain) did not guarantee them a playoff spot or even playoff contention, but instead, “more probable” competition or “more probable” playoff contention.

So, what’s going to make the Brewers “tick” in 2018? Here are my favorite picks from 2018 Brewers PECOTA:

PECOTA “punts” the Yelich Trade
Standing behind the curtain during some of the PECOTA work throughout the offseason, it was very interesting to see that the trade involving Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Jordan Yamamoto for Christian Yelich….did not really “move the needle” on the Brewers’ 2018 expected win total. This is surprising given the court of public opinion, but there are two specific reasons that the trade does not immediately yield an absurd advantage for the 2018 Brewers: (1) Lewis Brinson’s high floor is real, and (2) Christian Yelich could experience some role depreciation. It’s always so easy to look at the best possible outcomes or potentialities in each trade; Brinson the future superstar, Yelich the 5.0 WARP player, but it’s also worth emphasizing Brinson’s risk in reaching his peak role and Yelich’s fluctuation between varying degrees of serviceable-to-great production.

Don’t get me wrong: Christian Yelich is a very good baseball player, and his contract makes him worth every potential prospect future that the Brewers surrendered. PECOTA thinks so, too, projecting Yelich primarily as a Brewers left fielder working a .279 TAv and serviceable fielding at a corner position. That’s good for 2.7 WARP, second only to Lorenzo Cain (3.5 WARP). But, remember that floor for Brinson? Even if the center fielder fails to reach his fullest and best hit tool (and therefore, fullest and best power) in the MLB, he’s still a speedy, strong defense, strong arm player in the center of the diamond. PECOTA projects Brinson at .262 TAv and an overall plus on defense for the Marlins, which is good for a club leading 2.5 WARP. This is great for both teams: the Brewers land a quality outfielder under control for five years who has already shown his developed peak abilities at the MLB level (while rounding out the club with a left-handed bat and better plate discipline), while Marlins fans immediately landed the face of their rebuild, the best player on their team, and (at best) someone who neutralizes the toxic offseason orchestrations of Project Wolverine.

Zach Davies and Orlando Arcia Remain Quietly Competitive
As mentioned, the Brewers contended in 2017 due to the “high floor” strengths of their youngsters: players like Orlando Arcia and Zach Davies were not set up to be immediate superstars, but still maintained quality, consistent MLB seasons that propelled the team along “behind the scenes.” PECOTA projects the same for 2018, although this time Zach Davies is leading the pitching staff with a solid 4.43 DRA over 170+ innings, good for a 1.6 WARP. Arcia sits behind Cain and Yelich in terms of overall WARP, but the young shortstop is projected to continue onward with excellent defense and a serviceable bat at shortstop. One could look at these players’ projections and emphasize that PECOTA sees them declining from their absolute 2017 WARP, but I don’t think the WARP is the point here. Instead, what matters is that this duo is still viewed as a quality backbone of the club, even with some attrition, which will undoubtedly serve crucial roles for grinding through 162.

The Outfield Depth is a Problem
Projecting the Brewers’ outfield depth was a nightmare. I previously wrote about how a rotational system can make five outfield spots work for Yelich, Cain, Santana, Ryan Braun, and Brett Phillips, but it’s much more difficult to put those ideals into the mixer and dissect the potential probabilities. Probability #1, which PECOTA currently projects sans Santana trade, is that Ryan Braun plays right field, but only some first base and left field, and therefore loses all of his defensive value. Both Braun and Santana suffer in this universe, creating a total of 1.9 WARP (but 75 extra base hits!) and TAv below .280. Comparable players for Domingo Santana are Oswaldo Arcia, Jonny Gomes, and Joc Pederson, and his plate discipline regresses (98 strike outs and 36 walks in 315 plate appearances). Granted, I do think there is still a path of optimism about the current roster depth (perhaps Braun works 1B more frequently, and Santana receives more regular playing time across the outfield, interleague designated hitter, and pinch hitting roles), but I do not think that means PECOTA is categorically mistaken for the pessimistic trends for Braun or Santana. After all, the current roster mash up is designed in a way to particularly showcase flaws for both Braun and Santana, which does not mean they’re bad baseball players (in fact, their TAv are projected to contend for best overall offensive production on the club), they simply may be imperfect ballplayers for this current roster.

Chase Anderson is Chase Anderson
There are many good stories about the 2017 Brewers, but it’s tough to find one that’s better than Anderson’s arrival as an impact starting pitcher. Anderson resonated with Brewers fans not simply because he was a previous low-to-mid rotation depth option who arrived as one of the very best pitchers in the National League, but because he also vindicated the mechanical, analytical, and strategic approach of pitching coach Derek Johnson. In 2018, PECOTA projects some of 2016 Anderson to return, particularly in the shape of walks, hits, and home runs, without phenomenal gains in strike outs or ground balls. Underlying modeling views Anderson as one of the most likely pitchers on the Brewers to “collapse” in 2018, and less likely to “improve,” and it’s not hard to squint and see a scenario in which a comparable of Dustin McGowan is suitable for the righty’s age-30 campaign. Even with all of this noted, Anderson’s DRA is projected at 4.59 for the year, which should be a better than average performance if the offensive environment holds steady. There is value in that performance over 168.0 innings pitched, and this type of season still validates the contract extension that Anderson signed.

The Bullpen is Fantastic
As a group, the primary Brewers bullpen as currently constructed looks fantastic. Josh Hader and Corey Knebel are projected as the most likely relievers to improve in 2018, but Jeremy Jeffress, Boone Logan, and Matt Albers also receive relatively strong scores in the category. The current main group is projected to produce a DRA below 4.30, which should demonstrate the potential for average or better production in most offensive environments that the arms face in 2018. Some red flags float beneath the surface, however, as the walk rates are slightly worse than average for the relief group, and outside of Adrian Houser, Jeffress, Albers, and Jacob Barnes the group is projected to have relatively low ground ball rates. Yet, even outside of Knebel and Hader the relievers are projected as a strong strike out group, suggesting that some of the slider-heavy moves of the offseason should pay dividends in high leverage situations.

Prospects Begin Appearing on the Scene
One of my favorite aspects of digging into PECOTA projections is the appearance of new faces to the MLB. Caden Lemons, Keston Hiura, KJ Harrison, and Tristen Lutz are all listed as highly improbable MLB players by PECOTA, but their appearance on the radar after the 2017 draft means that the system is now generating comparable players for this group. Jacob Nottingham was added to the 40-Man Roster at the beginning of the 2017-2018 offseason, and one of the comparable names that popped up in his player line is Jonathan Lucroy, which is fascinating for many reasons (not the least of which is Lucroy’s general reputation as a defense-first catcher for the beginning of his career, and Nottinghma’s floor as a back-up catcher with pop). Mauricio Dubon appears as one of the more probable MLB prospects for the club, and his line is a very serviceable utility infielder (.250 batting average, .380 slugging percentage).

Brewers fans might be most excited to see Corbin Burnes at the bottom of the club’s starting pitcher list with three starts, as the pop-up righty prospect is given relatively favorable odds to reach the MLB and a set of comparable players that effectively grade out his reliever risk, reliever potential, and (most excitingly) his starting pitching potential. Additionally, Adrian Houser is given lower odds of reaching the MLB in 2018, but seeing the power sinker reliever in the mix leads to an exciting scenario where the entire Carlos Gomez / Mike Fiers trade return is potentially playing with the Brewers during the same season.

It’s a good reminder that even though common perception is that the Brewers system took a big hit with the Christian Yelich trade, there is still an intriguing group of prospects potentially knocking at the door for 2018. Add an asterisk to this potential 83-win season, as one that exhibits contending-ready talent and depth roles that are still developing for more future success.

Photo Credit: Ken Blaze, USAToday Sports Images

Edit: Updated at 7:15 AM to reflect updated win total, from 84 to 83.

It is time to win. It is time to win now, it is time to win next year, and the year after that, and after those years, too. This is a thrilling feeling as a Brewers fan, especially as one who came of age as an everyday fan during the initial Doug Melvin rebuild. I gather this feeling is difficult for a fanbase that is so used to losing and disappointment so as to design defensive personalities toward the idea of going for it this year. But that’s over now: There’s never next year, not for the next five, and this completely reorients the Brewers organization. With Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Jordan Yamamoto each head to Miami, clearing out three of the top ten spots (and two of the top three spots on the Baseball Prospectus 2018 Top 10). But that’s okay, take your pick: does RHP Freddy Peralta re-enter the top ten? 3B Lucas Erceg? C Mario Feliciano? RHP Marcos Diplan? OF Tristen Lutz? IF Mauricio Dubon? These are all prospects that did not reach the Baseball Prospectus Top 10 that still have Overall Future Potential (OFP) that are somewhere between “useful” and “interesting” MLB potential, and each has something to prove in 2018 (and more space within which to do so).

There will be more time to digest and analyze these moves, but now the Brewers faithful have immediately turned toward trading Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, and/or Keon Broxton. I am not simply playing the contrarian when I emphasize that the Brewers do not need to make such a move. First and foremost, each of Santana, Phillips, and Broxton remain under club reserve beyond the Ryan Braun era in Milwaukee, which means that the club can still play the long game with each of these players. It gets a little more difficult after Broxton will likely have his last minor league option burned in 2018, and Brett Phillips will likely have his last minor league option burned in 2019 (Brewerfan.net, 40-Man Roster).

But, the Brewers have a unique position of strength: first, they began a rest campaign for Ryan Braun in 2017, and there is no reason that the club cannot use a rest campaign for Lorenzo Cain as well. These players represent Milwaukee’s largest contracts, and the club has nothing to lose by remaining cautious with their health and playing time. By providing systematic rest to these veterans, the Brewers can gamble that these outfielders may be less susceptible to nagging injuries, and therefore maximize their potential production. It is worth it to Milwaukee to have the best possible versions of Cain and Braun available over the course of 162 and the playoffs. How can the club accomplish this and continue to win? By deploying some combination of Santana, Phillips, and Broxton between the bench and the minor leagues. Imagine these outfield sets:

Using a very basic assumption of four plate appearances per game for starters and one plate appearance for pinch hitters, these outfield schemes produce the following results:

This scenario obviously leans more on resting Braun than Cain, but more PA can be negotiated to maximize these scenarios. Phillips could serve as a defensive replacement for all three positions, and both Phillips and Santana could be used as late innings pinch hitters in various scenarios. Moreover, these scenarios are developed prior to considering injuries. Each of these players faces injury risks that could eat into playing time, which opens further opportunities for the next outfielder in line. If fans think about what it means to have an “analytic” front office, aggressive rest coupled with aggressive depth could be an important step in gaining an advantage over the 162 grind and the playoffs. In the World Series, after all, there will be a starting spot for three or four games for Braun, Cain, Yelich, and Santana; this is the type of long game that the Brewers can begin playing in rest strategies and roster building.

I am a proponent of the Brewers building the deepest team possible because the club needs every resource they can get in order to contend within their market. The club currently has enough cash to handle a signing of Cain and Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, so this is a real opportunity to build the best possible team for a half-decade span. At some point, trade returns for players like Santana, Phillips, and Broxton mean diminishing returns to the system. Neither Santana nor Broxton have enough of an MLB track record to yield impact prospect talent, and Phillips is in a strange in-between where he will neither be a likely trade destination for returning impact MLB talent or prospects. Holding steady with the outfield roster as is will work just fine; at worst, the club will run into a scenario in which players such as Hernan Perez, Stephen Vogt, Eric Sogard, or Jonathan Villar fail to make the MLB roster out of training camp. If that is the price to pay for significant outfield depth, that is a better price than to trade Santana, Phillips, or Broxton before necessary, and return a less attractive depth option at the first sight of injury or ineffectiveness during the season.

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing, USAToday Sports Images

So while the exciting pennant and playoff-chase baseball we’re experiencing is ahead of schedule, that doesn’t exclude us from looking at the bigger picture and thinking about what it will take for the Brewers to take the next step in its build. And, look, crazy things happen in postseason baseball. For all we know, the Brewers are already there and wondering about the Brewers’ long-term championship prospects will look silly at the end of October. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Among the Brewer hitters, something sticks out on their Baseball Prospectus team page. The depth, for sure, is notable and has been a strength of the team, especially on their most recent run. But for a team that is playing over its preseason projections and getting upper-range production from those same projections, it’s remarkably void of one standout star performance.

Let’s define a “star” performance as 5.0 BWARP or more for a season. It’s a decently high bar to clear, as only 17.1 teams on average have had a player clear that bar each year over the past 10 years.

On the other hand, 90 percent of World Series teams over that same time span have rostered at least one player worth more than 5.0 wins above replacement.

It’s not news that good teams have good players. There’s certainly something to be said, though, for a team getting a high-level performance out of one or two players that can erase deficiencies elsewhere on the roster. Indeed, a 5-win performance out of centerfield, for example, would net the Brewers an extra 3.5 wins this season, which is exactly the number of games out of first place the team found itself in entering play on Wednesday.

Of course, 5-win players don’t exactly grow on trees, either. The good news is that the list above has players that probably weren’t projected to be 5-win players, but simply outplayed their projections and had great years. For the current team, Travis Shaw is the closest to the 5-win mark with 4.1 BWARP entering play on Wednesday. As a 27-year old, there’s room for him to continue the improvements he’s made coming into this year, though nothing is guaranteed.

Looking down the list of Brewers players this season, Orlando Arcia comes in next with 3.1 BWARP. With his fourth-best among shortstops fielding runs above average (FRAA) at 6.6 and solid .260 TAv, it’s hard to expect or project too much more going forward, especially if defense peaks early, but it’s certainly still possible to see that “star” level of performance in the future.

And with all due respect to the #ryanbraunforever crowd, it can’t be Ryan Braun literally forever. His .296 TAv demonstrates his bat has still been productive when in the lineup, but as he continues to age and needs maintenance days, if not DL stints moving forward, it would take a full rebound season to get back to his star-level days.

So while there’s cold water to throw over any player reaching 5.0 WARP in a given year (non-Mike Trout division), those are three players that could reach that level. And that’s without mentioning strides that may be made by the young players currently on the roster or are that knocking on the door of the big leagues, or even the next wave of players that will come in the next two years.

Yes, the Brewers need a “star” player to reach the World Series, but that player may already be on the roster. Or, you know, maybe there’s a cost-controlled, free agent player out there somewhere that could be worth 5-plus WARP next year.

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire, USAToday Sports Images