The first thing that stands out about the 22-year-old Supak is his sheer physical presence. At 6’5” and 235 pounds, he cuts a classic, old-school silhouette on the mound. The guy looks like a throwback workhorse, capable of soaking up 200 decent innings with a rubbery arm and a smooth, repeatable delivery. It’s a great starting point for a pitching prospect.

What may hold Supak back from becoming a rotation mainstay is the quality of his raw stuff, which is largely average. Even at the time of his trade three years ago, Supak’s frame was more or less maxed out. Accordingly, the big Texan’s fastball velocity hasn’t really budged as he’s grown older; Supak still operates right around 90 or 91 mph, with the ability to reach back on occasion and crank it up to 94. It’s a decent pitch, as fastballs go, but hardly an elite offering. Supak has, however, taken some steps forward with his secondaries. What was once a fringe-y curveball has turned into a legitimate weapon; it now profiles as no worse than average, with good downward break and great velocity separation off of his heater (the curve spins in at 75-78 mph). His changeup, too, has been much improved over the last several years, traveling from non-existent all the way up to fringe-average. It should, at worst, become a “show-me” pitch in the majors, which may be just enough to allow Supak to stick in a starting rotation. At best, it could become average; it’s a little firm at the moment, but it comes in right around 85 mph and is at least capable of disrupting a hitter’s timing.

Supak has always shown good command of his pitches, leading to some suspicion that the solid results he produced in the low minors had more to do with the inexperience of his opponents than his own prowess on the mound. (Through A-ball, pitchers with good command and middling stuff routinely fudge their way through to impressive stat lines; once they reach the upper minors, more advanced hitters start to hit back.) That Supak was able to maintain his effectiveness as a 22-year-old getting his first taste of Double-A last season lends some optimism to his outlook.

His performance in the Southern League becomes even more impressive when it’s examined in halves. Supak made 16 starts for the Shuckers last year after his late-May promotion, with a nice cumulative ERA of 2.91. But in the first eight of those starts, he allowed 23 earned runs in 39.7 innings for a 5.22 ERA. Opposing batters lit him up for a .720 OPS. Wins don’t matter, but Supak was also winless in six decisions during that span.

The next eight starts were a little different. From July 16 through the end of the season, Supak pitched 47.0 innings and allowed a measly five earned runs. Opposing batters struggled to an anemic .527 OPS. His ERA during that time was 0.96, and he won each of the six decisions into which his performance factored.

If that line in the sand seems a little too convenient to be taken seriously, well, sure. We’re talking about a pretty small sample here, for one. I wasn’t present at any of Supak’s starts, so I’m unable to comment on how his stuff, or his demeanor, or the defense behind him, looked during that rough first taste of Double-A. For better or worse, I’m relying on the numbers and some scant video, neither of which always paints the full picture. (Exhibit A: Supak’s swinging strike percent actually edged downwards during his dominant late-season stretch.) Even so, those sorts of stats tend to jump off the page.

Add them all up, and we’re left with this: 25 games started and a career-high 137.7 innings pitched across two levels in 2018. 123 strikeouts, 44 walks, and only six home runs allowed. A cumulative ERA of 2.48, including his time in Carolina. DRA, it must be noted, is a little more measured in assessing Supak’s 2018 performance, pegging him as a league-average pitcher for the Mudcats, where his 4.69 Deserved Run Average stands in contrast to a glittering 1.76 ERA and his 99.7 DRA- is hardly exciting (a 100 DRA- is league and park average, and the lower the number, the better). But DRA also acknowledges that Supak turned it on after his promotion, finishing with a 3.73 DRA and a tidy 79.2 DRA- in Biloxi. That kind of performance is worth protecting.

Supak will start the 2019 in the minors, perhaps even back in Biloxi. But his above-average command and fastball-curveball combo make him a solid candidate to join the bullpen shuttle to the big leagues as early as mid-season. If 2018 taught us anything, it’s that the Brewers know how to make good use of their players with option years, rotating them between Triple-A and Milwaukee as needed.

The bullpen may well be Supak’s longterm home, too. If he performs well next year, he’ll have a chance to claim a spot as a middle-reliever or swingman for the foreseeable future. His stuff may also tick up a notch or two; instead of cresting at 94 mph, like he does as a starter, that number may become more of a baseline in relief.

There’s also a chance that Supak develops into an effective back-end starter, of the kind that the Brewers have had so much success with lately. He’s got that classic innings-eater frame, but limiting him to two trips through the batting order could do wonders for his ability to prevent runs. What’s more valuable: 200 innings with a 4.50 ERA, or 150 innings with a 3.80 ERA?

Supak has flown under the radar a bit in recent years. He’s pitched well, but not spectacularly; his ascent has been slower and less noticeable than those of 2016 Brandon Woodruff, 2017 Corbin Burnes, and even 2018 Zack Brown. But it has been steady. Now, he’s knocking at the door. Add his name alongside those of Woodruff, Burnes, Brown, Peralta, and others, and it’s clearer than ever that it’s time to retire the years-old narrative that the Brewers can’t develop good arms. Supak and his peers say otherwise.

Stearns just loudly answered that question this trade deadline.

What is fascinating about each of these trades is that they are fantastic in the sense of bolstering an MLB roster, in order to ensure that this stretch run features as few weaknesses as possible, while also potentially being over-pays in each case. Yet it should be stressed that these overpays are palatable for several reasons: the Brewers maintain a largely controllable roster that is also relatively inexpensive; the Brewers have a relatively large set of players that have been minor leaguers long enough to need potential 40-man roster protection entering 2019; and, perhaps most importantly, there is an incredible amount of role risk involved with each player. These trades should provide grounds for further analysis into when and how potential overpays are helpful to a team, and they should certainly provide further evidence that WARP/$ is not the sole determination of a trade’s potential value or impact.

Grading the System: 2016 || 2017

• Make no mistake about it, in terms of developing multiple quality pitches, command, and velocity, Luis Ortiz could potentially have the best pitching role for the Brewers system; there was a time, two years ago even, where it would not have been absurd for Ortiz to fight for a top tier pitching role in the prospect ranking cycle (and, really, it was not absurd). But Ortiz has been around forever in the advanced minors, it seems, without working full seasons. For example, the injury-fighting righty has 225 innings at Double-A without working 100 innings in a season, and with 68 innings at the 2018 deadline he could potentially miss 100 innings once again. If Ortiz can take his next step forward in the Orioles’ system, he is absolutely a more valuable asset, in terms of roster surplus, than Jonathan Schoop (and it is not close!!!), but that strong 60 Overall Future Potential (OFP) / 50 likely grade entering 2017 looks much more improbable. Ortiz is eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the 2019 season and almost certainly must be protected by the Orioles.

• Jean Carmona just made the jump stateside for the Brewers in 2018, and thus remains a full four levels away from the MLB. Additionally, Carmona might even be another year away from a clearly defined MLB potential role. In this regard, I do not envy the job of MLB scouts and analytics personnel, as it’s not entirely clear for me how I would price Carmona’s potential future value in terms of long-term systemic development.

• At BP Milwaukee, Kyle Lesniewski describe the roles and risks associated with both Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez. Medeiros could become an impact reliever at the MLB level, and it’s not unlikely that some observers still believe that he could start in some capacity, as there will always be hold outs for that sort of role. Given Medeiros’s delivery and command profile, however, as well as his fastball, Lesniewski outlines the difficulties that Medeiros may have for reaching even an impact reliever profile. Medeiros is eligible for the Rule 5 draft entering the 2019 season, and almost certainly must be protected by the White Sox, while Perez had yet to play stateside in the Brewers system.

• Finally, I already detailed the roles and surplus value for Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez, so I will not go into too much detail here. However, I will add that of each of the prospects included in this midseason deals, Phillips is arguably the most likely to have MLB floor and ceiling roles that both surpass the value of the trade return (which is not a knock against Mike Moustakas, he simply might only be in Milwaukee for a couple of months). With a prospect such as Corey Ray coming on strong in Double-A Biloxi, not to mention the considerable development of Troy Stokes Jr. at the advanced level as well, Milwaukee cannot necessarily lose sleep over trading away a depth outfielder from their stacked group when they are fighting a close divisional deficit and leading the National League Wild Card race.

So, readers will witness a couple of recurring facts in these trades: the Brewers largely traded away players that must be protected for 2019 to avoid their loss via the Rule 5 draft, or players with little-to-no stateside development experience (and thus years to reach MLB), and/or players with roles that may be replicated within a year. One need not believe that a player like Stokes will surpass Phillips, in terms of overall ceiling, to see the value of the young prospect’s potential to fill an MLB depth position in 2019. Phillips himself may not have had an opportunity in 2019 to take such a role. The same logic might apply to Quintin Torres-Costa and Bubba Derby. This should not be construed to mean that these current system prospects are categorically better than Phillips / Medeiros / Lopez; in fact, I would have ranked each of that trio ahead of their potential 2019 depth replacements. But once again, since systemic development, contending windows, and player development cycles are now orbiting a club that is contending for consecutive seasons (and the foreseeable future, hopefully), if it costs system depth roles to improve MLB weaknesses, the Brewers have to eat the risk of losing those ceilings.

I like when MLB trades can simply be called good baseball moves. For all the rebuilding narratives in Baltimore, Kansas City, and Chicago, the White Sox, Royals, and Orioles front offices arguably made sensible trades with quality returns that both have long and short time horizons and development cycles. Milwaukee is working as a true contender without trading from their most elite potential prospect stash. This is good all around.

Stearns priced out these converging development cycles and adroitly moved the future role risk to address an offense that absolutely needed help for a serious contending run. Just the other day I wrote, “At worst, Travis Shaw has simply begun a potential shift over to the right side of the infield, where he might serve as a viable first base option for 2019 should the Brewers and Moustakas exercise his mutual option for 2019,” without thinking that a realistic move to first base for Shaw could occur as early as this week. Now, with Jonathan Schoop in the mix for second base and Jesus Aguilar slumping, Shaw becomes a strong side platoon option at 1B to form a serious infield unit:

This infield could open 2019 should Stearns consider keeping both Moustakas and Schoop, and now the talk can turn to development cycles once more. While the Brewers continue to season second baseman Keston Hiura at the most advanced levels of the minor leagues, Schoop basically serves as an upgrade over the Jonathan Villar gamble (gambling that he’ll return to his 2016 form), thus giving the Brewers a quality starting option while Hiura completes his minor league development. While Hiura’s bat is arguably ready for the MLB, and has been mentioned as a potential MLB option by Baseball Prospectus in their latest Top 50 list, the infielder may need more work in the field after missing significant fielding development time due to an extended elbow injury. Once Hiura is ready in 2019, a Schoop / Hiura mix simply extends the #TeamDepth mantra, and the same can arguably said for the remainder of the infield.

Entering 2018, the Brewers system took a step back in terms of organizational rankings, due to a series of developmental setbacks for key prospects, MLB graduations, and trades. I began to highlight this during last year’s “Grading the System” feature, but as one can never predict baseball, the development cycles and potential OFP assessments calibrated for Corey Ray, Keston Hiura answered a crucial risk question (can he play 2B?), and a veritable gang of pop-up pitchers continued to march upward in the system, potentially boosting and extending the no-name, depth-oriented pitching staff into 2019. Make no mistake about it, the system might continue to rank in the middle of the league in terms of overall quality, and the set of clear potential impact roles (true 60 OFP+ roles) may end with Keston Hiura and Corey Ray should Corbin Burnes exhaust his rookie standing through the end of 2018.

Yet, given the instant development of 2018 First Round draft pick Brice Turang, the Brewers could demonstrate that they indeed nabbed an Elite Prep prospect that fell due to prospect fatigue. Turang could quickly help to boost the top of the system as an MLB potential role falls into place. Moreover, given the Brewers’ expanded efforts in International signings, as well as the quality use of signing bonus allocations in each of the last two MLB drafts, the lower minors could continue to host a variety of players that suddenly surge onto the prospect scene. While this does not make the Brewers system different than many other MLB systems, it provides a road map to how the club can continue to develop talent while contending. One could argue that it’s absurd to suggest that the Brewers “rely” on someone like Turang falling in the MLB draft, but this is exactly the type of prospect perception and role foresight that the Brewers must have if they are going to succeed while drafting in the bottom half of each round.

Of course, the notable graduations from the system should not be undersold as well. Now there are so many starters, depth roles, and trades from the Brewers prospect stock that I added a new category this year:

Now, with these graduates in mind, what does a somewhat thinner, but still rather interesting Brewers system look like?

Prospect Key
Top 10 Consideration
Top 30 Consideration
[Just Interesting]

Of course, it is also worth emphasizing how the system has been….decimated in key areas. Given the quick development by advanced prospects acquired from the major 2015-2016 trades, as well as the huge trades entering 2018 and during the recent deadlines, the pool of potential impact prospects acquiring via trade has waned:

This is an important category to consider simply because Milwaukee demonstrated how adroit trades could quickly rebuild a system and reform an MLB roster. It will be worth watching to see if the Stearns continues to attempt to find Jonathan Villar and Keon Broxton types via trade now that the club is solidly contending. Of course, one could argue that Stearns is always trying to find this player (be it Oliver Drake, or Jesus Aguilar, or even Alec Asher), but that it simply the fact that these players will not always come via trade.

Thanks to the mechanical corrections, good health, and overall development of Corey Ray, as well as the surging role of Troy Stokes Jr., the development of draft prospects arguably has a better outlook entering 2019 than it did prior to 2018. Given the advancement of Corbin Burnes into a relief role, Brandon Woodruff and Taylor Williams into respective swingman and depth relief roles, and Brett Phillips into a fourth outfielder, it is clear that the Brewers front office is considering all possible role developments with each player (rather than following a cookie cutter model, or a model in which each prospect must immediately receive playing time in their clearest future role). It is arguable that this type of development strategy could maximize roles ranging from Stokes to Zack Brown, Jake Gatewood, and maybe even Lucas Erceg.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee signed a couple of additional potential impact International Amateur free agents this July, continuing an attempt to build up the low minors. Carlos Rodriguez and Larry Ernesto are already making some noise in the Dominican Summer League, while prospects like Jose Sibrian and Jesus Lujano have made the leap stateside.

Frankly, this Brewers system will not look as strong, in terms of potentially elite impacts roles, as the one that received ranking for 2018 at Baseball Prospectus. Yet, as new cycles of player development depth emerge in the low minors, and the Brewers continue their unique form of MLB roster construction (clearly using all 40 roster spots for MLB-adjacent roles and frequently shuffling those roles), Milwaukee could be an organizational well-suited to do more with less. For if 2017 fired the opening shot that the Brewers can contend simply based on giving high floor players a chance to work in the MLB, 2018 is advancing that ideal and carrying it to deeper logical, promotional, and transactional extensions.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports Images

This is a fascinating development for a franchise that has not been known for pitching, and fans and analysts may have to get used to this scenario: the arms are ahead of the bats across the system. In 2017, while consecutive first round draft picks Corey Ray and Trent Clark backpedaled, pop-up pitcher Corbin Burnes posted a phenomenal year and saw his stuff tick ahead after noted mechanical adjustments in his delivery. But the pitching development hardly ends with Burnes, who exemplifies the current stock of middle-to-back end rotation starting pitching prospects that grade out as thoroughly solid quality within that role; reports cooled on Cody Ponce, but he had a ho hum innings building season, as did Luis Ortiz at Class-AA; Freddy Peralta was chasing Burnes for most impactful pitching season within the minors; his trademate Carlos Herrera took a big step forward in full season ball; and behind these quality depth options, Trey Supak, Josh Pennington, and others still had quite fine seasons.

Related Reading:
2017 Brewers Minors: Bats

There is a type of depth with these pitchers that simply cannot be matched by the current bats in the Brewers system. Currently, the bats feature multiple risk factors, especially in terms of developing hit tools. This profile not only suits graduates Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips, but also the aforementioned Clark and Ray, among others. Perhaps the selection of Keston Hiura in the 2017 draft is most important to counteract this risky trend, although Hiura simply reapplies that risk in a different area of the game. If the Brewers bats currently fit the profile of “could be big tools impact” / “might not make it out of a bench role,” the arms are quite the opposite, with no true top-end pitching prospect in the system. It’s a beautiful thing: not one ace. But among those non-aces, perhaps a number of starters that could prove as “boring” as Zach Davies, or have question marks answered like Chase Anderson or even Jimmy Nelson.

One gets the sense that these Brewers arms could be plugged in the rotation any which way, which should be considered an exciting affair given the recent hype of pitching coach Derek Johnson’s blank-slate, situational-personal coaching approach. It should also be mentioned that in an era of velocity, the top Milwaukee arms are hardly flamethrowers, which adds an interesting question about whether the Brewers are exploiting undervalued aspects of the game (I know that’s a played out question by now, but still…), or simply whether the Brewers have found a profile of arm that fits their system or organizational approach.

To accompany the statistical index of 2017 Brewers minor league bats, I have prepared an index of statistics for the 2017 arms in the affiliated ranks. To provide basic consistency with the survey range for the bats, I translated the initial scale of 50 batting PA to 16.7 pitching IP for assessing seasons. This largely produced a similar number of players across leagues, which also means that league median statistic figures should have a solid range to reflect statistical context.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, righty Eric Hanhold played his age-23 season at Class-Advanced A Carolina, where the median age was also 23; his index is therefore 1.00 for that statistic.

It should be noted that I calculated the index in a different way for pitching prospects in order to remain consistent with the batting index. This means that an overall index greater than 1.00 suggests that a pitcher’s OPS-allowed was better than the average contextual indicators in the league, and that an index below 1.00 means that pitcher was below average given the context of the league. In order to provide additional context to an index that only weighs age, park factor, and opposing OPS alongside OPS-allowed, I added a Deserved Run Average (DRA) index so that readers can compare outcomes and reflect on the validity of the OPS-allowed index.

This index is slightly different than the batting index, since there are different OPS values for pitchers and their opponents (for example, a batter is facing tougher opposition if the opposing OPS is lower; for pitchers, tougher opposition means higher OPS from opponents). For this reason:

+1.00 Age Index means “younger” than league average age.

+1.00 oppOPS Index means better than average opponents (compared to the league).

+1.00 Park Index means hitter’s park.

This index should not be read as a significant, be-all / end-all assessment of pitching performance. Instead, it should be read alongside other statistics and scouting reports as an indicator of the context in which the pitcher performed, as well as how their advanced performance (via DRA) compared to the league.

A few observations:

• Like the batting index, the “non-prospects” immediately dominate this pitching index. Trey Supak has been a deep cut since the Brewers acquired the projection-upside play in the Jason Rogers trade, and the righty worked what finally would be his first full season….at age 21. Taylor Jungmann is hardly even old for Class-AAA Colorado Springs as an organizational depth option. Quiet relief prospect Bubba Derby, a member of the Khris Davis trade, worked a season that matches the “contextual” aspects of Corbin Burnes or Supak (his trademate Jacob Nottingham also had a fine season on the batting index). Freddy Peralta looks like loads of fun, bringing numerous fastball and off-speed / breaking ball offerings and a funky delivery to keep hitters off balance. In this case, the command aspects (and delivery repetition due to a crossfire set-up) of the scouting report should be read alongside the index to round out future role and expectations, but it is undeniable that Peralta placed himself on the radar of quality organizational depth (at worst) in 2017.

• Cody Ponce had quite an interesting year in terms of DRA deviating from his other contextual factors. In terms of OPS, age, and park factors, Ponce scored well in both Carolina and Biloxi. Yet, the righty’s DRA did not stack up against either league, with DRA index of 0.86 and 0.97 in both assignments, respectively. The big righty is making his way up the organizational ladder, however, and it’s tough not to dream on that cutter or fastball at least helping Ponce secure a solid bullpen role of some sort.

• BP scouting team member James Fisher provided a detailed description of Jordan Yamamoto for last season’s midseason prospect feature, noting that delivery refinements and stuff progression drove the righty’s stock. Yamamoto continued to build on that 2016 notice with an excellent 2017 campaign, arguably putting together the most interesting pitching season in the organization (Burnes received the hype, but Yamamoto could have defined a role).The righty was extremely young for the Carolina League, and if the progression continues, the youngster could be primed to expand on a 140+ IP floor during his age-22 season at Class-AA Biloxi. It is worth noting that Yamamoto did not face tough competition in Carolina, although the funky park factors and his age did mightily correct for that indicator. If you’re skeptical about the index, DRA likes Yamamoto even more.

• Additional potential 2018 pop-ups / projection guys who posted better than average contextual index and DRA scores: Zack Brown, Josh Pennington, Braden Webb, and Thomas Jankins. Keep an eye on: Parker Berberet (!!!), Luis Ortiz, Jorge Lopez, Matt Ramsey, and Jon Perrin.

• Eric Thames, nearly a handful of years removed from the MLB, previously a Korean Baseball Organization superstar, translated his overseas success into strong MLB value for the club’s $16 million gamble (1.9 WARP).

• Travis Shaw, a sometimes-platooned third baseman caught in a packed Red Sox infield, flashing his potential as a full-time player (1.4 WARP).

• Jimmy Nelson, a previously middling innings eater in the rotation, now two new pitches and mechanical changes deep into his career, showcasing a solid new look on the mound (1.1 WARP).

• Orlando Arcia, the club’s former top prospect from the 2015 Biloxi breakout, now materializing that fantastic glove on the MLB diamond as the bat develops (1.1 WARP).

• Manny Pina, a former Player To Be Named Later, emerging at the catcher position due to the prolonged absence of Andrew Susac and a gamble on his late 2016 “breakout” (1.1 WARP).

• Corey Knebel, a formerly hyped “high leverage relief” prospect acquired way back in the Yovani Gallardo trade, now receiving a chance to showcase that electric stuff under the microscope of the closer’s role (1.0 WARP).

I do not have one doubt in my mind that if BPMilwaukee, or anyone, really, ran a series of preseason articles claiming that this six-pack of players would lead the Brewers to the top of the division into June, that would have been dismissed as much worse than wishful thinking. Yet, here we are, a gang of unsung players and a couple of hyped prospects are leading the Brewers and creating fantastic value. These six players comprise half the club’s wins above replacement value.

Related Reading:
Cashing Out OFP
Bandy-Maldonado
Aging Braun

Yet, if one compares the current production and contractual status of the Brewers’ major contributors to the preseason surplus expectations, one can find that the expected leaders heading into the season have also been quite strong for the Brewers. Essentially, the vast majority of the expected leaders entering the season have continued to provide value for the roster while another set of depth players are surpassing their expected surplus and that surprising set of leaders paces the WARP rankings.

The following table showcases the Brewers’ current production, compared to their preseason depreciated surplus value. Depreciated surplus value calculates a player’s three-year production basis at 70 percent value, and then prorates that depreciated figure according to the player’s contractual situation. The goal is to project a player’s future production on a declining scale, rather than an optimistic scale. In order to project current value, I also created an expanded depreciated surplus metric, which calculates a player’s 2014-2017 production, basically expanding the three-year model to a 3.33 model. To compare depreciated and bullish models, I also simply projected a player’s value if they maintained peak 2017 performance for the remainder of their contractual reserve. Money is not figured into arbitration or league minimum (reserve) contracts, since those players ostensibly cost the club nothing to release (ex., arbitration eligible players can be non-tendered between seasons at no cost, and the cost of releasing a league minimum player is negligible). For players age-26 or younger, I added an Overall Future Potential (OFP) valuation (Thames has a preseason OFP valuation to express the inability of assessing his expected talent level).

Compare that ranking with the 2017 surplus value leaders entering the season; this is probably the group of players that fans and analysts reasonably would have expected to lead the club. Veteran Ryan Braun and newcomer Junior Guerra have not been bad, but both missed time with injury (0.8 WARP); Jonathan Villar and Zach Davies have struggled to varying degrees (although Davies’s Sunday start against the Dodgers was an exclamation point on the idea that the righty was heading the proper direction) (-0.6 WARP); Travis Shaw is materializing his surplus value and serving as one of the production leaders (1.4 WARP); and Carlos Torres, Hernan Perez, and Keon Broxton are generally serving as valuable depth (1.7 WARP).

Entering the season, this group of players represented $235.8 million in surplus value, which vaguely cashes out into 33-to-34 MLB wins (those wins can be long-term or short-term, obviously depending on when GM David Stearns decides to cash them out); adding the updated “extended depreciated surplus” metric results in $253.2 million in surplus value, or 36-to-37 wins. What is thrilling about this development is that this group of players averages 3.7 years of contractual reserve, meaning that the club has another chance to return many of these players to try and advance this roster once in another year. The actual depreciation of these roster assets has suspended for a year, and the value of these players to the organization is higher because they have improved as a group.

Surplus value is obviously quite an abstract and contentious measurement. First, one can define both scarcity (of a skillset, or service time, etc.) and production in many different ways. Even if one were settled on the idea that “value = production + scarcity,” questions about whether to depreciate a player’s expected production going forward, or to use a player’s maximal outlook, and every question inbetween, would render that equation of suspect meaning.

Even with this caveat in mind, I want to suggest that one of the reason the Brewers are successful in 2017 is that Stearns has capitalized on players that maximized their surplus value in short order. Basically, this group of players have largely staved off any immediate delivery of depreciation, which is thrilling for the roster core and the trade deadline. It would have been ridiculous to suggest that perhaps Jett Bandy could produce enough value to be flipped for a 50 Overall Future Potential (OFP) prospect by the deadline, and perhaps even more bullish to suggest that he would materialize as a long-term quality depth catching option. The same might go for Jacob Barnes or Domingo Santana or even Eric Thames (who would probably be very difficult to trade, in terms of finding a prospect partner that matches his divisive historical profile and approach to the game). This is one way to cash out the improved surplus scenario for the Brewers; but one can also simply say that Stearns has successfully assembled a gang of players that produced three-to-four additional wins in organizational value thus far.

In Out of the Pits: Traders and Technology from Chicago to London (University of Chicago, 2006), Caitlin Zailoom presents an ethnography of commodity markets that demonstrates the embodiment of these markets, as well as the gendered, strategic, and technological standpoints that define commodity markets in space. While many understand the market truth of “buy low, sell high,” most do not dig any deeper than that truism into the strategic forms that materialize that mantra for shareholders. Zailoom demonstrates two specific strategies that allow commodity traders to maximize value: scalping and spreading. A “scalp” is a trade that seeks to immediately capitalize on an asset’s value, while a “spread” strategy focuses on taking offsetting short and long term positions to deliver profitable returns. Both of these strategies are applicable to Stearns and the Brewers front office for the trade season, which many fans are falsely equivocating into “win now” or “continue the rebuild” categories; rather, Stearns can move in several contrarian directions in order to maximize the Brewers’ current and future value.

Scalpers are a fascinating type. Zailoom writes, “local traders hope to profit from correctly predicting the movements of the market up or down and risk losing their own money in the process. They are speculators in the most pure sense — individuals making money purely on the changing prices of financial commodities. Although locals have a variety of trading strategies, most of them are known as ‘scalpers.’ Scalpers trade in and out of the market within seconds or minutes, profiting from small price fluctuations. Making hundreds of trades during the course of the day, the scalper never goes home owning contracts” (p. 62). Obviously, the metaphor of going home without owning contracts cannot apply to a baseball team, but the spirit of quickly capitalizing on moving prices might be applied to many of the players reserved on the Brewers roster. A “spread” strategy most certainly can be applied to baseball trading cycles: “A spreader takes opposing positions in each of two instruments, using the more stable contract to limit the loss potential of a position in the more volatile product” (Zailoom, p. 86). This type of strategy might be ascribed to the notion of “trading from depth,” which ostensibly means that the club is mitigating production volatility by “selling” a player from a position of strength (which therefore equals less organizational risk) in order to “buy” production for another area of the team (ostensibly shifting short-term risk to this acquisition).

A brief visualization, where ‘X’ are the Brewers, and the Brewers are trading with two partners in separate transactions (Team Y, Team Z) involving Overall Future Potential (prospects) and WARP (MLB players) that may be cashed out over an unknown period of time:

Stearns can essentially (1) hedge three-to-four surplus wins created with the MLB roster (basically keeping this as “cash in hand” or “organizational collateral”), (2) trade a “less valuable” MLB player while the iron is hot (a “scalp”), and (3) trade valuable prospects for a more valuable MLB player. This sequence might be the equivalent of flipping a player like Domingo Santana to an American League club (maximizing his offensive value and mitigating his defense), while also trading multiple prospects for a controllable starting pitcher. This is an extremely risky series of deals, but exogenous to the model are those three-to-four surplus wins that essentially mean Stearns really is playing with house money (a familiar theme here at BPMilwaukee).

Consider the Brewers’ current catching depth to demonstrate a scalp and spread. Given the injury status of Andrew Susac, and the relatively slow development of advanced prospect Jacob Nottingham, the position is not necessarily a true position of depth for the organization (especially given the physical toll of the position). Yet, there are other stateside prospect assets around the organization (from Dustin Houle to Mario Feliciano to Jose Sibrian) that could conceivably build a pool of prospects large enough to offset risk of short-term moves. Stearns could “scalp” the monstrous surplus gains of Jett Bandy, which would be about as short a turnaround as one could provide in baseball (ex., a trade in two consecutive “windows,” consecutive offseason to midseason windows). Pina, Susac, Nottingham, Houle, and waivers would provide the most immediate risk mitigation here, with low-ball prospects potentially providing the greatest long-term payout to this strategy for Milwaukee. A “spread” move could see the Brewers buy- and sell- in different directions, depending on available moves to maximize club surplus; it should not necessarily be surprising to see Stearns deal some prospects and also deal some MLB depth. Faced with a roster that has already added up to four wins in depreciated surplus value, and a farm system overflowing with prospects, Stearns can “cash” those four wins in a variety of ways.

Adding layers of deals, the Brewers can take “spread” positions across MLB and minor league levels. Perhaps this means using one deal to trade a flyball prospect (like Trey Supak)…

…and another deal to return a groundball prospect, while using additional deals to return MLB rotational and bullpen depth:

The point is not necessarily to dig into specific players here (really, nearly everyone except for a handful of players should have a transaction value for the organization). Rather, the point is to demonstrate that using embodied market strategies can help transcend the “win now” / “continue the rebuild” trade conundrum that is currently consuming Brewers fans and analysts. The Brewers need not do anything other than return maximal future surplus and present surplus with their MLB players and prospects. Thus may we enter “neverbuilding,” or “counterbuilding supreme”: with significant organizational collateral in hand (three-to-four additional surplus wins) Milwaukee has an opportunity to continue competing in 2017 while transcending the “win now” and “win never.”

Midseason 2016 #1
Midseason 2016 #2
Midseason 2016 #3
April 2017

Three Up

RHP Corbin Burnes, AA Biloxi Shuckers
No pitching prospect in Milwaukee’s system has performed better than Burnes this year. He began the season with Class Advanced-A Carolina Mudcats, but after tossing an even 60.0 innings and letting in a scant 1.05 ERA/1.66 DRA, the right-handed hurler earned a promotion to Class-AA Biloxi. He debuted there last night with 3.7 scoreless, hitless innings with a walk and four strikeouts before rain wound up shortening his start. A 4th-round pick in last year’s draft, Burnes is the first player from Milwaukee’s class to reach the AA level. Mark Anderson called Burnes a “number four starter in the making” in a recent minor league update, praising his “electric” arm speed, above-average fastball, and three improving secondary pitches.

Related reading:
To his friends he’s known as Corbin, but to you it’s Mr. Burns

RHP Trey Supak, high-A Carolina Mudcats
When the Brewers decided to bump Burnes up to AA, Supak was also a beneficiary as he was promoted from Wisconsin to Carolina to back fill the rotation spot. He certainly deserved the elevation based on his performance with the Timber Rattlers, as he authored a 1.76 ERA/2.36 DRA across 41.0 innings with 53 punchouts against just 10 walks and 21 base hits allowed. He got roughed up a bit in his debut with Carolina (4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 7:1 K/BB), but with promising command projection and a durable frame, he’ll have the chance to develop into a number four or five starter before it’s all said and done. (Jason Rogers is hitting .270/.317/.420 in 46 games for Pittsburgh’s AAA affiliate after being outrighted off the 40 man roster).

Related reading:

Hot Soup

RHP Brandon Woodruff, AAA Colorado Springs

Woodruff broke out in a big way last season, capturing Milwaukee’s minor league pitcher of the year award after posting a 2.68 ERA and leading the minor leagues with 173 strikeouts in 158.0 innings between high-A and AA. He’s only continued to improve his stock with a strong season in the extreme hitter-friendly environs of Colorado Springs. In 56.3 innings for the Sky Sox, he’s worked to a 3.04 ERA but with an impressive 1.97 DRA. The strikeout rate is down a skosh, but he’s limiting walks and generating plenty of ground balls to make up for it. Armed with a plus fastball and a slider that’s been called his “out pitch,” Woodruff may have leapfrogged Josh Hader as the first prospect arm that could get an extended trial in the big leagues this season.

Brandon Woodruff 3 K's. 1st/3rd pitches were 97 in Nashville gun. #SkySox pic.twitter.com/DXtDlvAIi1

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) May 29, 2017

Three Down

LHP Josh Hader, AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox
Hader made his Class-AAA debut with Colorado Springs last season and though he struggled to prevent runs in a tough pitching environment, his peripherals were still strong. That has not been the case this year. In 50.0 innings Hader has coughed up a 5.58 ERA; by Deserved Run Average, his 10.04 (!!!) mark leaves him as the 5th-worst qualified AAA pitcher this season. He’s allowing two and a half homers per nine innings, is walking almost five and half batters per nine, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 11.5 K/9 to 8.5 K/9. The Brewers still view him as a future rotation piece, but the funky arm-slot and regression with his already fringey command may wind up making a future relief role that much more likely.

OF Michael Reed, AA Biloxi Shuckers
At one time, strong on-base skills and defensive versatility had scouts pegging Reed as a future oft-used reserve outfielder or fringe regular at the big league level. He’s gotten a couple of brief looks in The Show, but the the acquisition of several new outfield prospects pushed the 24 year old down the depth chart and he found himself back in AA this season after a middling year with Colorado Springs last year. Reed has shown some power and is drawing walks at a good clip in the Southern League, but he is batting only .215 and has struck out in more than 29 percent of his plate appearances, by far the highest total in any of his minor league seasons. Given the fact that he’s been repeatedly passed over for call-ups while Milwaukee is currently playing with only two true outfielders on the big league roster, one has to wonder how much longer the Brewers will carry Reed on the 40-man.

3B Lucas Erceg, high-A Carolina Mudcats
Last year’s outstanding performance between rookie ball and the Midwest League left many optimistic that 2016 2nd-rounder would be a fast-rising prospect through Milwaukee’s system. Erceg has slowed down quite a bit during his first exposure to the Carolina League this year, however. Through 47 games the 22 year old owns a meager .216/.259/.342 slash, though he has popped five home runs over the fence. Erceg has continued the trend of low walk rates that we’ve seen early in his career, which may mean that he won’t be much of an OBP threat as he progresses. As my colleague Nicholas Zettel has noted, Erceg has faced some pretty tough competition in high-A, and given his age and pedigree it’s probably a bit premature to start freaking out about the longer-term projections. Erceg’s pronounced struggles do make it seem rather unlikely that he’ll see AA ball this year though, as many hoped that he would.

Let’s have a look at where the system stood for the previous update:

Now, here’s the competition through May 12:

There are a few things worth noting here:

• Brandon Woodruff is whipping the Pacific Coast League, but he’s faced one of the easiest opposing OPS among regular pitchers. It is still worth digging into Woodruff’s solidly above average strikeout and walk rates, and also emphasizing that Woodruff has maintained his 48 percent groundball: 52 percent flyball ratios established at Class-AA Biloxi last season. Everyone is excited to see Woodruff take the next step to Milwaukee, but as with Lewis Brinson, take that shiny surface statistical performance with a grain of salt and expect a slightly more average MLB role.

• On the contrary, what role can one present for age-30 phenom Paolo Espino? In terms of scouting stuff, no one would place Espino ahead of Woodruff. Espino seems like a pitchability-supreme guy. And so he is, outpitching Brewers fans’ current favorite pitching prospect while facing significantly tougher opponents (.756 oppOPS to Woodruff’s .724 mark). With Junior Guerra returning from the disabled list, and a series of rotating improvements among Brewers starters, Espino may find it easiest to sneak into an MLB bullpen role. But, handling a tough PCL does lead one to wonder whether Espino could start; we’ll split the difference and call him a pitchability swingman for 2017.

• We await scouting updates on Trey Supak, but as recently featured on BPMilwaukee, the young righty is maximizing his time in the Midwest League. Supak is posting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio among Wisconsin starters. For the future, watch his flyball rate (currently 66 percent) and look for scouting updates on Supak’s third pitch.

• Might we praise the 19-16 Biloxi Shuckers, those Shuckers outplaying a sub-.500 run differential in an extremely tough environment? The Shuckers, the gem of the Brewers system breakout in 2015, are the forgotten affiliate in 2017, as the in-between prospects from last year’s forgettable Brevard County club and the remainder of 40-man roster depth and advanced minors veterans forge a supreme sub-hype crew. Shuckers bullpen leaders Matt Ramsey, Nick Ramirez, Taylor Scott, Forrest Snow, and Bubba Derby have a lot to say about that, with a cumulative 102.3 IP, 104 K / 46 BB / 7 HR (0.20 Fielding Independent Pitching ratio), and 32 runs allowed (2.82 runs average against an approximate 3.71 park-adjusted run environment, good for 10 runs prevented).

• And yet they win, lead by Jorge Lopez and Luis Ortiz. Lopez and Ortiz have both faced notably tougher-than-median opponents, and within this duo Ortiz has faced even significantly tougher opponents still. But no sweat, as the median-age Lopez and very-young Ortiz are posting strong K:BB ratios. From here out, keep an eye on the flyballs, as both righties have flyball rates above 60 percent; this figure may fly in the suppressed environment of Biloxi, but could be very problematic at Miller Park (currently playing a 102 pitching park factor over thee years, according to Baseball Reference).

At the time, it was a puzzling trade from the Pirates’ vantage point. But to call that trade “puzzling” today is a bit like calling a hurricane “wet.” Few trades in baseball history have ended up so one-sided. Rogers was optioned to Class-AAA to begin the 2016 season, and that’s where he’s sat ever since, save for 33 plate appearances last summer, in which he slashed a Ramon Flores-esque .080/.303/.160 and cost the Bucs a fifth of a win. And it’s not like Rogers has been pressuring Pittsburgh’s front office to work him back into their plans. In 2017, his slash line at AAA has been a perfectly pedestrian .250/.324/.435.

Meanwhile, while Broxton got off to a slow start in Milwaukee, he’s been a two-win player in what amounts to just over half a season of plate appearances for the Brewers. The Pirates found themselves unexpectedly seeking outfield help this spring when Starling Marte was hit with an 80-game suspension. Meanwhile, a player they basically gave away for free is providing ample amounts of power and speed, along with a serviceable center field, to a division rival!

Had that been the extent of the deal, had Rogers and Broxton exchanged jerseys in a straight swap, the Brewers would undoubtedly be coming out far ahead. But what really pushes this trade into the realm of the historically one-sided is the inclusion of Supak. Teenage arms are, with very rare exceptions, all lottery tickets. But recent developments make it look increasingly likely that the Supak lottery ticket just might pay dividends for this already-profitable trade.

Supak won’t even be old enough to go out to the Appleton bars until the end of May, but the towering 6’5 righty is already in his second season pitching for the Timber Rattlers. Last year, he put up a respectable 3.86 ERA and struck out over eight hitters per nine innings pitched. But his 5.87 DRA inspired caution, and hinted that maybe he wasn’t as good as he looked. Milwaukee chose to play it safe for 2017, and make Supak prove himself again in the Fox Valley.

So far, the results have been highly impressive. Supak’s ERA has fallen to 2.40, his DRA is a matching (and far more confidence-inspiring) 2.47, and his WHIP has essentially been halved, from 1.47 last season to 0.77 this time around. Supak’s ratios are head-turning: 12.6 strikeouts per nine, six strikeouts per walk, and a K-rate approaching 40 percent. Clearly, the hitters of the Midwest League are in over their heads here. Supak might be young for his level, but already he’s making the case that he’s got nothing left to prove in A-ball.

On April 24th, Supak took the mound against Arizona’s A-ball affiliate, the Kane County Cougars. He completed six innings, gave up four hits, walked one, and struck out eight. Unfortunately, it was a hard luck night for Supak, in spite of his stellar performance. Two of those four hits were a double and triple to lead off the 5th inning, and both came around to score. Even more unfortunately, he drew Jon Duplantier as his pitching matchup. Duplantier opened the season with 21.7  scoreless innings, and five of those came on that night in Appleton. After Supak exited, the Timber Rattlers surrendered three more runs, but in spite of the 5-1 final score  Supak was masterful in keeping the Cougars’ hitters off balance for six innings.

Supak’s next start came on May 4th against the Bowling Green Hot Rods, the A-ball affiliate of the Tampa Bay Rays, and this one was another pitcher’s duel. Supak lasted five innings, surrendered just two hits and walks apiece, gave up a single run, and added nine strikeouts to his total. His counterpart, Brock Burke, needed to be outstanding, and he was–five innings of his own, four hits and three walks, a matching run, and seven K’s of his own. Both starting pitchers performed well enough to win–but the game ended up being decided in the bottom of the tenth inning on a walk-off infield single. The effort didn’t go unnoticed, either–Supak’s performance was highlighted by the BP Prospect Team in that day’s Minor League Update.

Tuesday night, the Timber Rattlers were in Fort Wayne to take on the TinCaps, Midwest League affiliate of the San Diego Padres. For the third game in a row, Supak was electric, and it led to a new career high in strikeouts. Supak pitched into the sixth inning yet again, lasting 5 and 2/3, and he fanned eleven Fort Wayne hitters. This time around, the Timber Rattlers were able to stake Supak to a lead and get him the win he had more than earned. Once again, the Minor League Update lauded Supak prominently.

Supak is dominating the ranks of A-ball so far this year, but there’s still plenty of reason to be cautious about his eventual future. James Fisher of the BP Prospect Team wrote up Supak for a Monday Morning Ten Pack last August. His conclusion was that “when all is said and done, Supak will be a number four starter with two plus pitches and a durable starter’s frame.” His fastball and curveball both grade as plus, but his fastball velocity won’t exactly be intimidating at the big-league level (consistently coming in at 91-94 and topping out at 95).

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs is even more bearish on Supak. He omitted him entirely from the organization’s Top 25 Prospects list and said: “The command is promising for a 6’5 20-year-old, but there’s very little projection left on the body, if any, and he’ll have to find a way to navigate upper-level lineups with mediocre stuff. Could work as a No. 5.” If Fisher has him tagged as a future Mike Fiers, performance and role-wise, Longenhagen seems to see him as more of a future Tommy Milone.

The 2017 season, though, could change all of that. Opposing hitters are whiffing at a truly impressive rate when Supak’s on the mound. Thirty innings into the season, that could just be a hot streak, and the law of averages could be waiting around the corner to unceremoniously ream Supak out. Unfortunately, neither Youtube nor MLB.com features any video of Supak pitching this year, so we’re left to speculate as to whether or not he’s made any dramatic mechanical changes, or added/refined a pitch. Without that, it’s anyone’s guess what’s causing this leap. That he’s conceding a line drive rate of 16.7 percent does make me optimistic that this is a case of legitimate skills growth.

At any rate, there’s one thing the numbers are unambiguous about: Supak has more than proven his mastery of Class-A professional baseball. The Brewers would be wise to seek out any opportunity to promote their big, talented youngster to Carolina. He might be young, it might not have been in the plans to do it this soon, but the writing is plainly on the wall, and by all accounts he appears more than ready for the challenge. Not bad for a player who is, for the Brewers, essentially house money.

Related Reading:
Timber Rattler Bats

BPMilwaukee has been lucky to have the watchful eye of BP Scout James Fisher covering the Midwest League. On a recent trip, Fisher extensively scouted some of the Timber Rattlers’ biggest names and sleepers alike. This feature will include a statistical overview of the competitive levels and performance of these prospects, as well as some notes on their respective tools and ceilings.

Midwest League Environment
Judging minor league players by their statistics is a tricky endeavor. First and foremost, since players are developing their tools at the minor league level, their actual performances on the field are not always indicative of their MLB ceiling or potential future value. Furthermore, if a player is honing in on one specific area of their respective toolbox, other areas of their performance may suffer in their statistics. In this case, it is somewhat possible to have a player move forward without necessarily showcasing each of their tools in their statistical record. Age and development levels can also impact a player’s performance; this is especially true in the Midwest League, for instance, where a 19-year-old performing in their first full season of professional play after being drafted out of high school would be expected to perform at a different level than a polished college player working in their age-21 or age-22 season.

With that in mind, one way to consider minor league statistics is by judging each player within their specific context of age, opposition strength, and league strength. For example, the Midwest League is a much more depressed environment than the Class-A counterpart South Atlantic League, which impacts how one can read statistics:

With this in mind, I developed two charts to judge batting and pitching context for the Midwest League. 218 Midwest League batters have had regular play after the June draft or throughout the season, with a base threshold of 130 PA:

The 90% percentile is most elite, meaning that a player facing .661 opposingOPS pitchers is facing tougher competition than 90% of the league, or a .300 TAv is better than 90% of Midwest League regulars (i.e., the other way around, that player would be in the Top 10% of production). In terms of age, the 20th percentile is old for the level, the 90th percentile age is extremely young.

For pitchers, 228 arms have worked 30 innings or more:

In this case, a 2.55 FIP is better than 90% of regular hurlers, and a pitcher that faces a .682 opposingOPS is facing tougher competition than 90% of the Midwest League regular arms. One can note that comparing the full Midwest League with “regular players,” regular batters (130+ PA) have posted a much better median TAv than the league median (.252 TAv for regulars, .243 TAv for the full league). So, one might expect a regular batter to have a better performance in this sense (depending on their age and strength of opposition, of course).

Wisconsin Pitchers Scouted
The following entries are built from James Fisher’s scouting notes, the vast majority of which were compiled during an early August series in Appleton. Notes on Zack Brown and Corbin Burnes were added during a recent Beloit series.

Zack Brown – RHP (50th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Brown has a tall, lean frame with room for more. Starts from a semi-windup and 3/4 slot, and arm action shows some warts with high back elbow, effort, and head whack out front. Fastball sat 90-94 and touched 95 with sink and finish down in the zone. Showed feel to both sides of the plate with swing and miss. Showed average feel for the curveball with 10/4 shape at 79-82, which is a swing-and-miss pitch, a power breaking ball with bite. Changeup is too firm at 82-85 and lacks true action. Brown can be effective with fastball/curveball combo, but will need third pitch to succeed.
MLB Role: Back end of the bullpen type in big leagues.
Wisconsin Note: Notably young, posting a median FIP against relatively weak competition.

Corbin Burnes – RHP (20th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Medium frame with small shoulders. Burnes starts from a semi-windup and 3/4 slot. The arm action in the back is a little floppy and there is some effort throughout. Fastball sat 90-94 and touched 96. Burnes also throws a little cutter at 88-90 with late break. Fastball command limited in this outing, with front shoulder fly open. Most misses were arm side. Curveball sat 74-78, which started off slurvy but firmed up to 11/4 shape with bite and depth as the outing progressed. Showed feel for the pitch. Slider at 80 with short lateral break. It lacked depth in this outing. Changeup was 83-85 with below average fade. Threw enough strikes in this outing to be effective, but needs to reign in command to stay a starter.
MLB Role: 3 or 4 starter at the big league level.
Wisconsin Note: Poor FIP from a notably young pitcher facing slightly below-median competition.

Jordan Desguin – RHP (20th percentile FIP, 50th percentile age, 60th percentile competition) – Stocky, medium framed righty. Desguin starts from a high ¾ slot and a semi-windup. Pitches with a slightly below average fastball at 87-91, with some 2-seam action to it. His curveball sits 75-78 with 11/4 shape but lacks quality rotation and bite to the pitch. Changeup has marginal fade at 81-84, but Desguin keeps arm speed. High A ceiling. In Wisconsin, Desguin is median age, facing slightly stronger than median competition.

Jake Drossner – LHP (below 20th percentile FIP, 50th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): Drossner has a big, pro-style frame with little room remaining. Starts from a semi-windup and has a high ¾ slot. The elbow gets a touch high in the back and he pitches uphill through a high front shoulder. The southpaw pitches with a 6 fastball at present, sitting 90-94 with some late wiggle down in the zone. The Curveball lacks quality spin, but is thrown at 73-76 with 1/7 shape. Drossner can steal a strike call with it early in the count. The changeup sits 81-84 with slight fade when he keeps his arm speed. AA/AAA Roster filler ceiling. In Wisconsin, Drossner is median age, posting a poor FIP against median competition.

Nathan Griep – RHP (80th percentile FIP, 50th percentile age, 60th percentile competition): Large frame with High ¾ slot and funky delivery. Grief has a high, floppy elbow in back with effort throughout. Fastball sits 92-94 with armside run and some sink. Breaking ball is downer with bite, 11/4 shape. Changeup sits at 79 but lacks proper arm speed and authority. Lacks the ability to command the baseball. Thrower, not a pitcher. AA ceiling at best. In Wisconsin, median-aged Griep is posting a notably above average FIP against relatively tough competition.

David Lucroy – RHP (below 20th percentile FIP, 20th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Pro-style frame with ¾ slot. The righty is short in the back, with a high elbow and stiffness throughout the delivery. Fastball sits 85-90 and is fairly straight. Lucroy’s curve sits 72-78, and he lacks feel for spin with 11/5 shape. High-A at best. In Wisconsin, Lucroy is relatively old, and is posting a poor FIP against relatively weak competition.

Trey Supak – RHP (20th percentile FIP, 80th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): Supak has a large, pro-style frame with strong lower half. Starts from a semi-windup and high ¾ slot. The delivery isn’t smooth, but there aren’t major concerns in the delivery; Supak is a little herky jerky. The fastball is a 6 to a tick above and sits 91-95. It’s a heavy ball with some arm side run. The righty locates the pitch to both sides of the plate, and isn’t afraid to elevate when needed. The curveball sits 87-80 with large 11/5 shape. It has average spin with consistent depth. The changeup sits 80-81 with fade and Supak keeps his armspeed.
MLB Role: Back end of the rotation potential.
Wisconsin Note: Supak is posting a poor FIP, although he is notably younger than the median pitcher, while also facing median competition.

Quintin Torres-Costa – LHP (70th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 30th percentile competition) – L3/4 slinger with average fastball and long sweepy breaking ball. Starts from an extremely closed off stance and strides closed creating deception from his arm slot. Left handed hitters don’t see it well out of the hand. Fastball sits 88-92 with run/sink that gets under hitters hands. Commands it armside but often loses the pitch gloveside. Sweepy, slurvy breaking ball that sits 74-76 with 2/8 shape. It has a long break that A-ball hitters struggle with but more advanced hitters will lay off of. At best, with a tighter breaking ball, a LOOGY at the big league level.
MLB Role: Situational relief.
Wisconsin Note: Torres-Costa is relatively young, and he is producing a strong FIP against relatively weak competition.

Devin Williams – RHP (40th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 60th percentile competition): Fisher noted, when asked to highlight a specific player, “I think the recently promoted Devin Williams needs some attention, his Changeup is truly fun to watch.” Fisher’s notes bear this fact:

Williams has a lean frame with broad shoulders, and room for more strength. Starts from a step back semi-windup and a high ¾ slot. He has a high leg lift and no major issues on the back side. Strides towards home plate with a flexed landing leg. The fastball is a 6 with 90-94, touching 96 when he needs it. The fastball is fairly straight, but Williams is working on a wrinkle 2-seamer around 87-88 to keep hitters honest. Controls the pitch to both sides of the plate and will elevate at 95 when he wants a K.

Williams’s changeup is a true 6, with quality arm speed and fade. When it’s right, hitters have no chance. Isn’t afraid to double up on the pitch to either side of the plate. Curveball sits 78-81 with inconsistent shape and spin. The curve is at its best when the shape is 11/5 with downer spin. Slider is being thrown more lately at 83-85 with shorter shape that he can get around on. Has some feel for spin, so one of the two breaking balls will get to average. Williams has really taken a step forward this year, and it’s fun to watch.
MLB Role: Back end of the rotation potential.
Wisconsin Note: Williams is posting a slightly below-median FIP, although the righty is relatively young and facing slightly stronger-than-median competition.

Jordan Yamamoto – RHP (80th percentile FIP, 80th percentile age, 40th percentile competition)– 6’0’’ righty with plus fastball and feel for spin. Starts from a ¾ slot and semi-windup. The delivery gets a little soft in the back. Lands flexed and online. FB sits 91-93 T94 with slight armside run. Curveball sits 74-76 with 10/4 shape. Loopier soft breaking ball that lacks bite and depth. Slider sits 82-84 with tighter rotation but still lacks average rotation and bite. Sweepy. Changeup lacks consistent arm speed but when thrown properly flashes fade. Command profile weak at present with side-to-side fastball but softness in back of delivery will keep from becoming average. AA/AAA roster filler ceiling. Wisconsin Note: Yamamoto is extremely young, and posting an excellent FIP against slightly-below median competition.

Did Not See:
Miguel Diaz – RHP (30th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition); Alex Farina – RHP (40th percentile FIP, 20th percentile age, 30th percentile competition); Scott Grist – RHP (40th percentile FIP, below 20th percentile age, 20th percentile competition); Thomas Jankins – RHP (90th percentile FIP, 80th percentile age, 90th percentile competition [!!!]).

DL:
David Burkhalter (60th FIP, 80th age, 20th competition), Conor Harber (80th FIP, 40th age, 30th competition), Drake Owenby (below 20th FIP, 40th age, 70th competition), Chase Williams (80th FIP, 20th age, 90th competition).

James Fisher is a BaseballProspectus scout and author.

Related Reading:
3 Up 3 Down: Gatewood / Nottingham / Phillips

Key Promotions
Recently, some of the most intriguing arms in the Brewers system received promotions.

RHP Marcos Diplan has been transferred to Brevard Cty. RHP Kaleb Earls has been placed on the DL. RHP Trey Supak transferred to Wisconsin

— Brewers Player Dev (@BrewersPD) July 10, 2016

#Brewers have promoted RHP Angel Ventura to @BiloxiShuckers and RHP Freddy Peralta to @BCManatees.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 9, 2016

This year’s A Wisconsin affiliate has simply been stacked with arms, so much so that one might have forgotten about Marcos Diplan. Within the system, Miguel Diaz and Jon Perrin stormed the stage (although these RHP are both interesting for different reasons) as homegrown arms, and Freddy Peralta (also in Brevard County now) stepped forward to put a face with those names returned in the Adam Lind trade. So, Diplan stood as one of the earliest “rebuilding” trade returns in Milwaukee’s system, but the teenager struck out 89 of 295 batters faced. Questions about Diplan’s size and secondary stuff at times lead one to expect a bullpen profile for the righty, but those huge strike out profiles make even that outcome appear more exciting.

Trey Supak was something of a lottery ticket return as a part of the Jason Rogers trade, even if he ultimately has a frame and some tools worth projecting. Recovering from a previous injury, Supak faced a potentially brief 2016 campaign, but the righty has impressed by making quick work of R Helena: an 11 strikeout / 1 walk campaign preceded Supak’s promotion to Wisconsin, where the 20 year old will look to prove himself against older, full season talent. While Diplan and Supak have completely different frames, development patterns, and injury histories, it’s somewhat tempting to place Supak’s risk category in the same realm as Diplan: you’ve got to dream on the tools as a starter, but there’s still a lot to like even in a relief profile.

In the season of Junior Guerra’s stunning MLB success, non-linear developmental patterns should become an area of further analysis. While Angel Ventura’s path has not meandered in the same way that Guerra’s did, the righty spent three seasons in the Brewers Dominican Summer League before coming to the United States. It’s easy to dismiss Ventura as an “old” prospect in some sense, then, but the righty has consistently posted solid strike out rates in both A Wisconsin and A+ Brevard County. Now, while he’s working in AA Biloxi, the 6’2″ prospect continues to serve as underrated organizational depth, this time only a couple of steps away from the MLB. While all eyes are rightfully on Orlando Arcia to officially judge the retooled Milwaukee International system a success, Ventura could also serve as a success story and a lesson about patience in player development.

Three Up
Jon Perrin, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): While Brewers fans might rightfully focus on the aggressive assignment for RHP Cody Ponce out of the 2015 draft, his 27th round counterpart Jon Perrin has forced his way to the same level in 2016. Kyle Lesniewski previously featured Perrin at BPMilwaukee, tempering expectations from his A Wisconsin dominance by noting the righty’s age and rotational profile. Now, with eleven games under his belt in Brevard County, the extreme strike out / walk profile looks good (19 percent / five percent). While it’s tough to lay off of the Mike Fiers comparisons given Perrin’s size, depth status, and draft profile, one must watch the righty’s flyball rate, as that may be the most important comparison and aspect of Perrin’s game to define his advancement.

Franly Mallen, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): Before there was Gilbert Lara, Milwaukee’s big International smash, there was Franly Mallen, a much less hyped but arguably as interesting prospect for the Brewers system. When Mallen was signed, reports did not necessarily highlight a standout tool, although some scouts reportedly looked for projectable power. Last year was arguably a type of breakout for Mallen, in the sense that he received one of the most aggressive promotions out of the Dominican Summer League from the Brewers front office. Mallen has done nothing but rake in Helena, boasting TAv of .366 and .311 (at age 19, now, no less). The youngster is already off of shortstop, which could speak more to the jampacked shortstop position in the system than Mallen’s glove, but it remains to be seen if this move is permanent. Even so fans can salivate at the Javier Betancourt / Wendell Rijo / Isan Diaz / Franly Mallen potential pipeline at second base, if that move is permanent.

Nate Orf, AAA Colorado Springs (James Fisher): At every turn, when the Brewers system improved in 2015, most of the hype went to players like Orlando Arcia and Jorge Lopez. But Nate Orf, an undrafted free agent signed by the Brewers in 2013, also carried his production to AA Biloxi last year, earning a spot in the Arizona Fall League. James Fisher called Orf a “utility guy that can really hit.  Under the radar guy that will be a big leaguer, [and] deserves some recognition.” True to form, Orf is posting a .294 TAv while playing second base, third base, and shortstop in Colorado Springs. Should the Brewers make as many trades as one might expect during the deadline crunch, fans and analysts should look out for the 26 year old Orf in Brewers blue, solidifying the multifaceted infielder as a true Bruce Seid era success story.

Three Down
Gilbert Lara, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): It seems roundly unfair to place Lara in this category (if anything, it’s an argument against prospect bonus hype): the 18 year old only has instructional ball and 344 plate appearances in the USA as his professional experience, and has a long way to go to reach his toolsy projections. BaseballProspectus ranked Lara fifth in the Brewers system due to his immense talent, with power being the calling card here. Those tools simply have not shown up in games yet, as Lara works to define his plate discipline and approach.

Wei-Chung Wang, AA Biloxi (James Fisher): Don’t look now, but just as soon as we brainstormed this feature, Wei-Chung Wang looks to be on another second half surge. James noted that Wang’s stuff is backing up, and also noted that the strike out / walk profile is not ideal. Once again, Wang has his work cut out for him, as the southpaw will arguably need to stabilize his up-again, down-again organizational status as he tries to convince the Milwaukee front office to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this autumn.

Clint Coulter, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): Last year, some fans and analysts clamored about the placement of Coulter within year-end prospect lists, as the catcher-turned-right fielder’s stock fell. The rough times in Brevard County continued in 2016. This time around, one might point to Coulter’s notably below average competition (.673 opposing OPS, placing Coulter’s competition ahead of only 25% of Florida Southern regulars) and age as additional question marks for the prospect. The silver lining is that Coulter’s bat improved in June and is currently solidly hot in July (.311 AVG with five extra base hits in 50 PA), so hopefully Coulter has a redemption storyline on target.

Of course, Melvin didn’t always struggle in this facet of management. The first five years of his tenure (2003-2007) saw the Brewers draft Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy, among others. Those players combined with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall — whom the team had selected in the pre-Melvin seasons — to form a strong nucleus that helped the club make playoff runs in 2008 and 2011.

After that, however, the prospect well dried up — such that, for five years running, the Brewers have placed in the bottom five of BP’s organizational rankings:

[Note: These rankings began in 2008.]

With the aforementioned core heading to the Major Leagues, Milwaukee sorely needed to replenish its system. Melvin responded with the opposite due to the club’s competitive window. In deals for CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum, he sent away Matt LaPorta, Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffess, and Brett Lawrie. Some of those players didn’t end up accomplishing much, but the prosperity of some of them — particularly Brantley and Cain, each of whom has played at a borderline-MVP level in the past couple years — have made many fans regret the trades retrospectively.

Inadequate drafting compounded the woes of those deals. Jack noted in his piece that the club’s picks from later years haven’t yet amounted to much. Over the past few years, teams such as the Rangers have managed to maintain a solid minor-league system despite swinging big trades, and they’ve done so by constantly restocking their affiliates through the draft and international free agency. Part of that is good scouting, too, while part of that is a willingness to spend money. Melvin’s Brewers partook in the former half of the equation while neglecting the latter half, though, and it has come back to haunt them.

With that said, Milwaukee has made recent strides. BP’s writeup of the farm system stated that it possessed “talent to makes several teams quite jealous” — a massive improvement from its standing over the past several seasons. After spending the first half of the decade in the minor-league cellar, the 2015 Brewers have taken the necessary steps to move back up to the top half.

Part of this, in fairness, happened before this year. In August, Julien Assouline analyzed the team’s drafts under Melvin, who had perhaps not received the credit he deserved. Some of Melvin’s strengths there stem from the early years, but even in the later part of his run with the Brewers, they fared moderately well. Derek Harvey commented that the club’s drafts from 2009 to 2014, under late scouting director Bruce Seid, provided them with numerous quality players that presently stock their system. Indeed, of the top-20 current Milwaukee prospects, eight — Jorge Lopez, Devin Williams, Monte Harrison, Tyrone Taylor, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeiros, Yadiel Rivera, and Michael Reed — came from drafts during that span, while Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara signed with the team as amateur free agents in that period.

Still, an improvement of this magnitude, and in this short a span, suggests something different in the past twelve months. Part of the difference stems from the 2015 draft, which has (to this point) yielded incredible rewards. Four of those top-20 prospects came to the team in June: Trent Clark, Cody Ponce, Demi Orimoloye, and Nathan Kirby. Clark stands out as the best of the bunch, but all four have intriguing upside and could continue to blossom further. New scouting director Ray Montgomery, as Harvey observed, seems to have taken off.

The team’s decision to finally rebuild has helped with that. July saw them deal away established starters Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, and Jonathan Broxton, as well as (relative) stars Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. Those trades — which, as J.P. Breen correctly posited, meant the team had recognized that its window has closed — brought back a great deal of prospects. Yhonathan Barrios, Zach Davies, Malik Collymore, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser now occupy various levels of the Milwaukee system; Phillips, Davies, Houser, and Hader ranked in the top 20, while Santana has already begun to contribute at The Show. Together with Marcos Diplan, an intriguing top-20 farmhand whom the team acquired in last January’s Yovani Gallardo swap, they amount to a formidable group.

Overall, David Stearns inherited a solid amount of prospects when he became the GM in August. Surveying the trove a couple weeks before Melvin stepped down, Derek Harvey concluded that the system had gone from the bottom to the upper half of the league — a prediction that, as stated previously, we’ve likely seen come true. Stearns didn’t stop there, though. In his four-odd months atop the organization, he’s made several trades to bolster the minor- and major-league depth, further improving the system as a whole.

The first two transactions came in mid-November. Stearns swapped Cy Sneed for the Astros’ Jonathan Villar, then followed that up by shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers in exchange for Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). Seth Victor described Villar at the time as “a good acquisition for a team that needs middle infield depth and flexibility,” a player who won’t make a noticeable difference yet should still provide some value. Betancourt — who rounded out the top 20 — is, in Chris Crawford’s estimation, “a high-floor prospect with a fairly well-defined ceiling.” In other words, he could become a Villar-type player a few years down the road.

After BP published its top-20 list, Stearns has made a few more moves, evidently in an effort to muck up the rankings. First came the Adam Lind trade, which brought back three young pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta. While I can certainly see the logic in Jack’s distaste for the deal — Lind gave us something to cheer for in this dreadful 2015 season, and those players always hurt to lose — I ultimately come down on the side of J.P., who expressed cautious optimism regarding it.

Not long after that, three more prospects came to Milwaukee. The day following Lind’s departure, the Red Sox sold Garin Cecchini to the Brewers for cash considerations. BP’s Bryan Grosnick called the deal “[t]he definition of ‘buying low,'” as a disastrous 2015 had caused Cecchini’s stock to plummet. Likewise, the players Milwaukee snagged in the Rule 5 draft — Colin Walsh from the Athletics and Zack Jones from the Twins — don’t carry elite pedigrees, or much upside, for that matter.

These deals nevertheless give the Brewers plenty of options for 2016 and beyond, as J.P. outlined a few weeks ago. (Plus, the quantity acquired from these transactions only increased thereafter, when the Brewers sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates, receiving Keon Broxton and Trey Supak in return.) Overall, the solid 2015 draft, along with Stearns’s willingness to trade anything not nailed down, has translated to a complete turnaround in Milwaukee’s minor-league system.

What does this mean for 2016? Well, as J.P. pointed out, the Brewers have more routes they can take at the Major League level; although few of those will likely lead to wins, the results should give the team some clarity for 2017. More immediately, it means the Triple-A Sky Sox will presumably play better in 2016. Michael Schwarz explained how that affiliate would progress with legitimate prospects filling its roster. The biggest takeaway here, though, is general optimism. Years and years of no future, at long last, appear to have come to an end. Now, more so than at any point in recent memory, there could be hope on the Milwaukee horizon.