TOP PLAY (WPA): Also the second-highest leverage play of the game, the play that most increased the Brewers’ win probability occurred in the top of the first inning. With two outs, and the Brewers at risk of wasting a rare extra-base hit from Scooter Gennett, Aaron Harang left a 1-1 changeup to Adam Lind out over the plate. The scorching-hot Lind tattooed it. The ball, you’ll notice, is still rising as it rockets over the head of a helpless Ben Revere in right field (+.193 WPA).
[See the play, here.]
The two-run shot increased Milwaukee’s odds of winning almost 20 percent. It gave the Brewers an early 2-0 lead, a lead that they would take to the wire.
BOTTOM PLAY (WPA): The Brewers hung nine runs on Harang and company, but things could’ve been even more lopsided. An inning after Lind pulverized his home run, the Brewers put together an improbable two-out rally. First, Martin Maldonado — he of the .185 batting average — punched a single into right field. Then, Kyle Lohse followed suit. Stepping up with two outs, Gerardo Parra slapped a ground ball up the middle. Freddy Galvis fielded it, and awkwardly flipped the ball to second baseman Cesar Hernandez. But Lohse busted it down the line and slid in just ahead of the play. It was ruled an infield single, and loaded the bases up for Scooter Gennett.
Gennett would deliver a run-scoring extra-base hit on three occasions on Wednesday evening. This time, however, he could only tap a weak grounder to Ryan Howard, leaving the bases drunk. It cost the Brewers five win-probability points (-.051 WPA).
What might’ve been. The Brewers could have been coasting to victory in the second inning; instead, they had to wait another inning to continue tacking on runs against Harang.
KEY MOMENT
Lind’s first-inning homer set the tone for the game and staked Kyle Lohse to a multi-run lead before the right-hander even had to leave the dugout. But still, Brewer fans couldn’t have been too confident. The last time Lohse gave up fewer than two earned runs was May 15th in New York. At this stage in his career, though, it seems that two runs is rarely enough support to buoy Lohse.
Fortunately for the Brewers, Lohse took the crooked number the offense hung as a challenge, not a comfort. He induced a lazy fly ball from Ben Revere, caught Cesar Hernandez looking on a slider, and drew another lazy fly from the bat of Maikel Franco. The whole ordeal took just ten pitches.
Lohse entered the game with an ERA of 6.28 — even after the two-run first, it was easy to imagine the game devolving into a long, depressing 13-11-style slugfest. The veteran hurler fit the leash on the Phillies’ offense from the get-go, shutting them down early. By the time Philadelphia managed to shake free after several trips through the lineup, the game had long since been decided.
TREND TO WATCH
A year ago, the Cardinals went through some growing pains with their young second baseman, Kolten Wong. Sending Wong to the minors for a few weeks served to right the ship, and he’s been a first-division second baseman ever since. It’s hard to imagine that the Brewers didn’t have this in mind when they designated Scooter Gennett for assignment this May. In many ways, Colorado Springs (and the larger Pacific Coast League) is a perfect venue to regain confidence, thanks to the thin air and offensive-friendly ballparks. No matter the reason, though, Scooter has mashed since the team recalled him to the big leagues:
Scooter Gennett since his recall on June 11: .300/.323/.600 with 5 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR and 9 RBI’s in 60 AB’s. Following the Wong/Odor path.
— Cory Schwartz (@schwartzstops) July 2, 2015
Once upon a time, the organization indicated that Gennett’s offensive potential made Rickie Weeks expendable. At 25 years of age, Gennett is far from the point in his career where he could be considered a disappointment. Thus, in spite of his offensively bankrupt first month and a half, it’s hard not to be optimistic. Kolten Wong is a different style of player, but he’s now a first-division player. And his Prospectus player card identifies an 89 similarity score relative to DJ LeMahieu from a year ago. LeMahieu, too, is a first-division player at the position this year — even if he does benefit from the Coors Field Effect (TM).
Last night, Scooter was in his zone. He doubled twice and tripled once, driving in three and scoring a pair. Hitting out of the two-spot in the lineup, Gennett was a key cog in the offense — managing a positive WPA for the game even though he was responsible for the single-most negative play. The Brewers have to be thrilled with the way his June turned out, and everybody involved is hopeful that it is indicative of things to come.
[See Gennett’s run-scoring double, here.]
COMING UP NEXT
No, the team can’t just stay in Philadelphia and play the Phillies for every game. The team does, though, have one more crack at The Only Roster In The National League That Makes The Brewers Look Good. Chad Billingsley will be making his fourth start for Philadelphia, as he attempts to rebound from last summer’s elbow surgery, but it hasn’t been a pretty road so far. His first three starts saw him go sixteen total innings and strike out just seven batters, while posting an ERA over six and a FIP over five. He’s been on the disabled list again the past six weeks, but he’s back and displacing Adam Morgan from the Phillies rotation. He’ll square off with Matt Garza for the Crew, in a game that could conceivably see double-digit run totals.