Coming into this season, I had low expectations for Matt Garza. He began the year on the disabled list so we already knew that he wasn’t completely healthy, and he was coming off of two horrendous seasons. In 2015, Garza threw 148.7 and posted a DRA of 6.18, which was good enough for a whopping -2.0 WARP. Last year, he improved slightly and posted a -0.5 WARP in 101.7 innings. He was entering the last year of his contract (Garza has a vesting option for 2018, so he would likely have been taken out of the rotation if he struggled this year), so the Brewers didn’t have a ton invested in him and thus no reason to stick with him if his season took a disastrous turn.
In his seven starts since coming off the DL, Garza has been a revelation for a team in need of league-average pitching. His 4.06 DRA and 99 cFIP are not special, but they are roughly average and are a massive improvement over the past two seasons. That 4.06 DRA is the best mark on the team for anyone who has thrown as many innings as he has (40.7), thus exemplifying how big a boost he has provided. The only starter ahead of Garza on the list is the recently returned Junior Guerra (3.27 DRA in two starts), which also goes to show just how important Guerra is to the club.
As to Garza, though, the Brewers have to make a decision in the next two months about how they want to handle this season. They are currently in first place in the NL Central, although just 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs and Cardinals. At 27-24, they are the worst division leader in the majors, and they are also behind the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in terms of wild card standings. The reality of the situation is that while first place on Memorial Day is fun, the playoff position is precarious.
The NL Central itself is quite packed. The Brewers are just 3.5 games ahead of the last-place Pirates, and all five teams can fit between the gap between first-place Washington and second-place Atlanta in the NL East, as well as between third-place Arizona and fourth-place San Francisco in the NL West. Even though the Brewers have played well, they haven’t banked a large division lead that the Cubs (or Cardinals or Pirates, I suppose) will have to overcome. During their surprising 2014 run, the club was in first place by four games on June 1. As was mentioned above, the Brewers don’t even have that large a lead over the team in last place.
All of that is to say that the Brewers aren’t in great position to make the playoffs. The Baseball Prospectus playoff odds give them a 25 percent chance of making the playoffs, which ranks third in the division behind both Chicago and St. Louis. However, that also doesn’t mean that the club should automatically trade Garza just because they are still long shots to make the postseason.
First, as BPMilwaukee’s Kyle Lesniewski is fond of pointing out, at some point the team does have to try and start winning, and trading veterans for prospects merely for its own sake is no longer the correct approach. The Brewers may not necessarily have expected to compete this year, but they will probably have expected that their window would open next year. This is unlikely to be a fluke in the long-run; the club has good players who are performing well, and they are a young team who would be expected to improve in the coming years. Therefore, if Arcia is better earlier than expected and Eric Thames is actually a true middle-of-the-order threat, it’s entirely plausible that the team is at least ready to compete for a wild card position earlier than expected. Trading Garza simply to accumulate prospects doesn’t make a ton of sense given this position.
Second (and probably more importantly), Garza is unlikely to have a ton of trade value. He is coming off of his terrible seasons and is 33 years old, so he is on the downside of his career. He has also thrown over 1600 career innings after making his debut at age 22, so his arm has taken a heavy beating. Given this track record, it’s unclear which—if any—contending teams would be interested in trading for him. He is also a free agent after either this season or next (depending on the option), so it isn’t as if a trading team would have some additional control. The general principle is and should be that no one is off limits, but it’s hard to imagine a good team being so desperate for starting pitching at the trade deadline that they decide that Matt Garza is the answer to their problems that they make a massive offer.
And finally, if the Brewers are going to make a playoff push, it looks like Garza might be a key component of that run. The rotation has been underwhelming, and if Garza continues to be a league-average pitcher, he can really help the team. With Junior Guerra back and Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson both pitching halfway decently (101 and 93 cFIPs, respectively), Garza provides some additional depth should Zach Davies (6.79 DRA) continue to struggle. The Brewers have some potential minor league reinforcements in, among others, Paolo Espino and Brandon Woodruff, but Garza has been a good major league pitcher for a long time and if he continues to pitch well then he will likely stay in the rotation.
Ultimately, I believe that the Brewers should not and will not trade Garza. He probably doesn’t have a ton of trade value anyway, so there isn’t much benefit in actively attempting to move him, and keeping him allows the Brewers to try and push for a wild card spot. The wild card situation is not that intimidating, as the Rockies and Diamondbacks are off to good starts but weren’t expected to be this good, and the rest of the competition is just as flawed as Milwaukee. Things could certainly head south in a hurry for the Brewers, but that possibility isn’t a good enough reason to cut bait on Garza as soon as possible.