If you were to tell me the Brewers would be five games over .500 more than halfway through May, I would have confidently told you Broxton would have been a big part of that. However, after 36 games and 131 plate appearances, his season has been a mixed bag.

On the surface, some numbers look good. He is hitting .258, 16 points higher than last year. His slugging percentage is up 28 points, as he only has two fewer doubles than he did in all of 2016. There are some good signs.

Yet there are some holes in his game that are holding him back from his potential. While his batting average and slugging are up, his on-base percentage is down 33 points. His strikeout percentage, which was already a major detriment to his game, is up two points. His walk percentage, which helped alleviate the high strikeout rate, is down eight points. He has been caught four times on the bases, already as many times as last year.

His fielding, something I was very excited about coming into this year, has digressed. I realize defensive stats can be a tad misleading, especially this early in the season, but it has been a hindrance. His FRAA is at -0.4, after being a positive 0.5 a year earlier (his UZR/150 and DRS mimic his FRAA, with -8.5 UZR/150 and -7 DRS). He made three of nine five-star fielding opportunities in 2016, yet has only made two of 13 this year.

So what is going on? Why has Broxton struggled so far to begin the season?

First of all, Sean Roberts of BP Milwaukee detailed some of Broxton’s plate discipline issues earlier this year. That issue still has not changed and I am here to build on that assessment.

The 6-foot-3 centerfielder got off to a horrendous start. In his first 18 games and 61 plate appearances, he hit a meager .161.230/.286, accompanied by 25 strikeouts. Striking out 41 percent of the time is, uh, hard to fathom. That is exactly what we did not want to see.

In the most recent 18 games and 70 plate appearances, that strikeout percentage has dropped down to 36 percent – so, still very bad. But Broxton has hit .344/.400/.609 with six doubles, a triple, and three home runs during that span. Before one gets too excited, those numbers have been greatly assisted due to a .528(!) BABIP.

I am going to go out on a limb and say Broxton is not as bad as his first 18 games, but he is not as good as his last 18 games.

Broxton’s plate discipline has seemed to disappear. As I mentioned earlier, it was much easier to swallow that strikeout rate when he was walking. But those walks have gone away. Below, Broxton’s swings/pitch zone profile from 2016 and 2017 illustrate his added aggressiveness this year.

In 2016, Broxton swung at 35 percent of pitches that were off of the plate and inside (the three zones adjacent to the strike zone). So far in 2017, he has swung at 55 percent of them. Remember, these pitches are not strikes! These are balls that miss in and he is swinging at them more than half of the time this year.

And as for balls that are thrown beneath the strike zone, he is swinging at 52 percent of them, up 14 percent from 2016. Really, the same can be said about any part of the plate that is not in the strike zone! He is chasing pitches he should not be chasing.

Another way to look at his plate coverage and discipline this year is where in the zone he is getting his base hits. By using some of the nifty tools and search options at Baseball Savant, I have added below two more charts. The first chart is a zone breakdown of where he connected on a base hit last year, and the second chart shows the same thing for this year.

In the first visual, Broxton’s base hits came on pitches in the zone, especially down in the zone. However this season, the centerfielder is strangely accumulating many of his base hits from the lower-inner third of the zone, with some of those being out of the strike zone.

And to top this off, I figured it would be best to show Broxton’s exit velocity by individual zone from this season and the prior.

Last season, like many players in the league, Broxton demolished pitches left over the plate. What made the 27-year-old such a sexy breakout candidate coming into 2017 was the fact that he crushed the ball. His 91.7 MPH average exit velocity ranked 19^th among players with at least 100 AB’s. That was ahead of guys like Chris Carter, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jose Bautista. Broxton was making fantastic contact and making that contact right over the heart of the plate. Those are all good signs.

But so far into this season, the story has been slightly different. He is still crushing pitches left over the middle of the plate, which is a very good sign. Unfortunately, many of his base hits are coming from that lower-inner portion of the plate (or off of it), where Broxton has not been able to hit the ball as hard. In the second graphic above, Broxton’s average exit velocity is only 73.1 MPH when he makes contact with a pitch out of the zone and in. While that is not extremely surprising, what is surprising is that they are turning into base hits, at least for now. My guess is that luck will not last much longer.

An even more granular and less visual way to compare 2016 and 2017 is his O-Swing (out of the zone) and Z-Swing (in the zone) percentage. During his 2016 season, Broxton swung 64 percent of the pitches in the zone and 22 percent outside of the strike zone. But this year, he is swinging at fewer pitches in the zone (60 percent) and more outside of the zone (31 percent). His ability to control the strike zone has evaporated.

As I finish writing this article, the Brewers defeated the San Diego Padres in an afternoon game. In that game, Mr. Broxton summed up my article almost perfectly. In his first two at-bats, he struck out on a combined seven pitches. The final two at-bats, he hit two singles, both that were on the inner-half of the plate (albeit both in the strike zone). The first hit was off the bat at 96.3 MPH, while the second hit exited at only 78.1 MPH. This game was a microcosm of his entire season: a lack of plate discipline, a lust for pitches thrown inside, and lucking himself into a base hit with a poor exit speed (at least one of the two hits). Yet to your average fan, the former third round pick finished the day 2-for-4 with two runs scored and a stolen base.

My hope is that Broxton reverts to his old ways of last season, which is to lay off pitches outside of the strike zone and to punish balls that come over the middle of it. I realize that is basically the strategy for every baseball player that has ever stepped foot onto the diamond, but I hope you get the point. It seems as if Broxton has lucked into a few base hits, ones being outside of the strike zone and hit poorly. That will not last forever. The positive sign is that he  still can hit the ball very hard when a mistake is thrown over the plate. It just comes down to whether or not Broxton chooses to only swing at those, or continues to chase.

Now entering his fourth season as a professional ballplayer, the 21-year-old could have quite a bit to be frustrated about. He has been hampered by injuries in his early career, has not put up the numbers expected by a second round draft pick, and has not made it past low A-ball. He has only played in 154 games the past two years due to a broken ankle in 2015 and a broken hand in 2016. As a hitter who relies on his speed, power, and athleticism, those might be the two worst injuries for a player of his skillset to have.

Yet after speaking with Harrison for a matter of moments, I could tell right away he was someone with a fresh and refocused mindset and that will give the game of baseball everything he’s got. “My plan is just to keep growing, each and every day, not trying to focus too far down the road. Every time I wake up in the morning, the first thing I tell myself is to ‘seize the day’.”

Seize the day he has so far in 2017.  In 18 games, the outfielder is slashing .333/.489/.636 with five doubles and five home runs. While unfortunately there is no publicly available minor league exit velocity data, you can see in the many videos across Twitter that Harrison has been hitting the ball hard. As this Brewers Prospects clip shows:

Monte Harrison HR (5) #TRats pic.twitter.com/T7dhnXtlIs

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) April 22, 2017

It may be subtle, but Harrison’s ground ball rate is down from last season, and his fly ball percentage has ticked up as well.

Statistics courtesy of MLBfarm.com

As many of us are now aware, baseball is in some sort of a fly ball revolution and I asked Harrison if he was a part of it.

“Honestly, I don’t think about whether or not to hit the ball in the air. I just tell myself to square it up. If I square it up, it will be in the air. That’s with anybody. But no, no thought process to it. No change of the swing. More about better timing and being able to hit the fastball.”

It will be interesting to see if Harrison can continue to trend towards more fly balls and less ground balls. For someone who can square up a ball and hit it as hard as he can, he could do some serious damage with the ball hit in the air, and that is what fans have seen so far early this season. With that being said, he does however have a different thought process when he is up at the plate.

“No thinking, just hit the fastball. If they throw certain things, then I change my mindset. But all I am really trying to do is hit the fastball. Capitalizing on mistakes, that’s what is going to get you to the big leagues. That has always been my mindset, but I was going back and forth between getting caught up and thinking too much. I am trying to tell myself to stay fastball the whole time. Fastball, fastball, fastball.”

It seems as if Harrison has approached the 2017 season in a different way than in years past. Another new addition to his approach was his offseason, where he moved down to Florida to train with Eric Cressey at Cressey Sports Performance in Jupiter, Florida. Cressey, who works with numerous Major League Baseball players, “specializes in applied kinesiology and biomechanics as they relate to program design and corrective exercise; maximal relative strength development, and performance enhancement.” I spoke to Eric and we discussed Monte’s first offseason participating in their workout program.

“Sometimes what we see with guys, they can be very strong but with bad workout patterns. We saw a little bit of that with Monte. Our goal was to put some good stiffness in the right place. At the same time, he is a guy who could put on 270 pounds and six percent body fat in two months. He puts on muscle mass very quickly and very easily. However, that is not something that is super functional. We want to keep his weight in check, but also make sure he was moving better and heading in the right direction.

“It is not just the exercise you are doing, but how you are doing it. We want to make sure when he is going through his training techniques we are not sacrificing form for the sake of lifting heavy weights. We are not just trying to show off athleticism – we are trying to enhance it and make it more sustainable. I think those things made a really big difference for him.”

As I mentioned previously, Cressey works with many Major League Baseball players. This list includes the likes of Max Scherzer, Steve Cishek, and Logan Morrison, just to name a few. Cressey pointed out how valuable of an experience it is for Harrison to be around these players for hours at a time, to listen and to learn how to train and condition your body, as well as preparing your body for a full season.

“The biggest improvement I saw in Monte this offseason was his core control – his positional awareness. We talked about not just doing exercises, but understanding where you position yourself as you do them.

“I think the other thing it does is it makes for a much more efficient force transfer. One of the things we kind of joke about is that it is easier to make a fast guy strong than it is to make a strong guy fast. You put some strength in the right places and allow make them transfer force more effectively, it puts the hitter in a really good position to generate bat speed.”

Cressey noted that he was extremely impressed with Harrison’s demeanor and work ethic. Harrison moved down to Florida this offseason to train six days a week at the Cressey Sports Performance facility. Cressey really respected Harrison’s drive and commitment to baseball.

While Harrison’s offseason consisted of major strides and gains when it came to taking care of his body, training effectively, and refocusing his mental approach, there was yet another change to his game after his 2016 season. I noticed that Harrison repositioned his hands prior to the pitch being thrown. The images below show a drastic shift in hand positioning.

2016 Front View & Side View

2017 Front View & Side View

I asked Harrison about this, and my assumption was correct. Harrison told me that during this past winter, he and then-hitting coordinator Jeremy Reed decided to experiment with positioning his hands lower. The first game Harrison tried this new approach, he went 3-for-5 with a double and a home run. That instant success sold him on the new approach.

Harrison said that keeping his hands lower put him in a much stronger ‘set’ position, where he could feel that pause and power in the back leg prior to the pitch being thrown. There is also the addition, or resurrection, of a more pronounced leg kick that he had when he was younger.

Lastly, I pointed to Harrison his decrease in stolen base numbers over the years. Back in 2014 (his first year as a pro), the speedster was 32-of-34 in stolen base attempts in only 50 games. But this past season, Harrison was only 8-for-11 in stolen base attempts in 80 games.

“I am definitely a runner at the end of the day. Anybody you can ask on the team, I am definitely a runner. In certain situations in the game, you need to be smart about what you do on the bases. I am still the same speed level as I was before.”

So far this season, the 21-year-old is only 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts, but here is the bright side to that stat: 10 of his 22 hits have gone for extra bases, so the opportunities to steal second base really haven’t been there. Fans would all much rather see doubles and home runs than stolen bases, and Harrison didn’t seem to mind either.

While we still haven’t flipped the calendar to May, Harrison is showing major signs of improvement at the plate. He is feeling much more comfortable and it is evident in his production on the field. Many skeptics seem to forget that 6-foot-3, 220 pound athlete was only able to legally walk into a bar this past August. Harrison is younger than Orlando Arcia, Lewis Brinson, and Corey Ray. He was a two-sport athlete in high school who only recently devoted every moment of his life to baseball, and has been slowed down by two freak injuries. If the month of April is any indication of future success for Harrison, his five-tool potential may one day be achieved.

With the Brewers projected to finish 78-84, we are looking for a few players to exceed expectations. Last season, the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants made it to the Wild Card game with 87 wins. And in 2014, the Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates made it to the one-game playoff with 88 wins respectively. With that being said, I am going to try to find ten additional wins amongst this current roster.

Keon Broxton Becomes a Budding Superstar
There may not be a player who has gotten more analytical love than Keon Broxton. After putting up a 1.4 WARP in only 244 plate appearances last season, there have been numerous underlying numbers that show us he could be much better. We will begin with his extremes at the plate. Broxton led Major League Baseball in strikeout rate at 36.1 percent for those with more than 240 plate appearances. That is quite poor. When you look at the rest of that “leaderboard”, you will see it is not necessarily ideal to be a leader in strikeouts.

However, on the other end of the spectrum, Broxton finished 11^th in the league in walk percentage at 14.8 percent (remember, a minimum of 240 plate appearances). That is better than Carlos Santana and Dexter Fowler, both guys who have been known for their plate discipline. In a perfect world, Broxton would cut down on his strikeouts and maintain his walk rate, but that might not be the type of hitter he is. The hope is that even if he continues to run a high strikeout rate, he can continue to walk 14-plus percent of the time.

Not only did the centerfielder impress with his above-average plate discipline, but he showcased what kind of pop he has off the bat. For players with a minimum of 30 batted ball events, Broxton finished 4^th in exit velocity. The three men in front of him include the likes of Nelson Cruz, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton, while the three that trail Broxton are Matt Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, and David Ortiz. Now that is a list you want to be a part of!

Earlier this month, I discussed Broxton’s stellar defense in centerfield, according to Statcast. Yet strangely enough, he only posted a 0.5 FRAA last season, meaning he was rated as a pretty average fielder by Baseball Prospectus’ metrics. It will be very interesting to see what his FRAA number looks like this year. If his FRAA number begins to represent what Statcast’s new defensive data is showing us, his WARP should take a healthy leap forward. Combine that with elite exit velocity, an impressive walk rate, and plus-speed on the base paths, Broxton could possibly emerge as the best player on this ball club.

Broxton’s current WARP projection is only giving him 319 plate appearances (half of the playing time allotted to Brewers’ centerfielders). If we give Broxton 85 percent of the playing time, his projection shoots up to 2.2. And now let’s assume that he exceeds expectations due to everything I mentioned earlier, and we get a 4.4-win player! The Brewers just added three wins. However, we did just subtract part of the 0.6 WARP Lewis Brinson is projected to provide in centerfield. So let’s just say he still provides 0.6 WARP in fewer plate appearances, because why not? We are trying to have some fun here folks.

Keon Broxton’s Current WARP Projection: 1.4
Keon Broxton’s Updated “Projection”: 4.4 (+3 wins added)

Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar Are Not Completely Awful
According to the PECOTA projections, Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar are expected to make up 95 percent of the plate appearances at first base for the Brewers this season (the other five percent is Travis Shaw). Between Thames and Aguilar, they are projected for a negative WARP! Negative! PECOTA is telling us that the guy who hit 124 home runs in Korea the past three seasons and the other guy who tied for third this spring in home runs will collectively be worse than a replacement level player! I just cannot buy that.

Trust me, I am not sold on either Thames or Aguilar. I understand Thames raked in Korea, but he had an unsuccessful first attempt in Major League Baseball and baseball stateside is a completely different game. As for Aguilar, he has yet to prove himself at the Major League Level. I also detailed last week that I am not entirely sure how they plan on utilizing the two sluggers. However, a negative WARP out of the first base position seems unrealistic to me, even with my reservations on both players.

But hey, this is an optimistic article…The Brewers are making the playoffs! If this dream does come true, I can guarantee they will need more production out of first base than they are projected to, and I do not think it is too absurd of an assumption to wrap the mind around.

In the case of the Thames, let’s just take a peak at some other projections. ZiPS is projecting the 30-year-old slugger to be worth 1.2 wins, while Steamer is very optimistic, projecting two wins and for Thames to be the best player on the team! I look at these other projections because predicting players from Korea is not an easy thing to do. Each projection system has a different way to interpret certain numbers from overseas and how they will perform. Even though PECOTA is down on Thames, their 90^th percentile ranking projects him having a 2.6 WARP. That may be the most unrealistic scenario for Thames to achieve if you ask PECOTA, but it is a projection nonetheless! I am giving Thames that 2.6 WARP.

For Aguilar, he is projected a 0.1 WARP in 119 plate appearances, split between first base and as a pinch-hitter. To me, that number seems reasonable and I would not expect it to waver to any extreme. His bat has not hit well against lefties in recent years at the minor league level (a matchup I would assume the Brewers would attempt to pursue) and he will provide zero defensive value. Yet in the case of this article and my preference for round numbers, Aguilar will exceed his 0.1 WARP projection and projection 0.3 wins above replacement player. He will become a solid depth piece and have some valuable pinch-hitting appearances throughout the season.

Thames & Aguilar Current WARP Projection: -0.1
Thames & Aguilar Updated “Projection”: 2.9 (+3 wins added)

Jonathan Villar Repeats his 2016 Performance
Jonathan Villar posted a very impressive 4.7 WARP last season, on route to leading Major League Baseball in stolen bases with 62. The Jonathan Villar trade has been the best deal for David Stearns, production wise, as of yet, and the hope is Villar can continue with that production.

The age-26 infielder is only projected to be a 1.6-win player this season, drastically down from 2016. What is the reason for the drop in production? My understanding is that it is because of two things. One, he has not had a track record of previous success (a lot of this is due to lack of plate appearances). Secondly, he ran an extremely high BABIP, .373 to be precise, which ranked fourth in the league. The argument is that he had a lot of “good luck”. However, fast players are always known to run higher BABIP’s due to the “luck” they can create with their speed. And even in prior years, Villar has had a higher than average BABIP.

Villar’s speed will continue to help his offensive production going forward. Another positive to take from last season is how he progressed through the season. After running a .410 (!) BABIP the first half of the season (337 plate appearances), that BABIP came back down to earth in the second half to .328 in 342 plate appearances. His batting average did dip from .298 to .270, but his slugging percentage spiked from .426 to .493. He hit seven more home runs in the second half of the season and stole the exact same number of bases.

Lastly, Villar will be moving from shortstop to second base. With 0.9 FRAA last season at shortstop, Villar was pretty much a league average defensive shortstop. Combine that with an above-average season at the plate and that makes a pretty good player, which he was last season. The switch over to second should only increase his defensive value, as second is a much easier position to play than shortstop. Also, Villar has set some pretty lofty expectations for himself:

Johnny Villar, moving to second base this season, has his sights on a Gold Glove Award. "I want it," he said.

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) March 29, 2017

I am definitely a fan of the switch over to second, which will also allow for Orlando Arcia to find his rhythm at the Major League level. Villar’s athleticism and defensive skills in the field should allow for him to at least maintain, and hopefully exceed, his defensive value in years past.

To top off the ridiculous lineup I have created in this hypothetical, my prediction is that Villar will almost repeat his 2016 performance, adding an additional three wins to his current PECOTA projection.

Jonathan Villar Current WARP Projection: 1.6
Jonathan Villar Updated “Projection”: 4.6 (+3 wins added)

To summarize, I have just added nine more wins to the current Brewers roster, putting them in range of a Wild Card birth. Keon Broxton will emerge as one of the better centerfielders in the National League, Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar will not be a complete disaster at first base, and Jonathan Villar will repeat his 2016 season. If you include Sean Roberts’s original feature on the Brewers’ PECOTA projections, we could easily sprinkle in some additional value from Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, and a starting pitcher. Easy enough, right?

Not so fast. All of this might sound so easy, but there is a reason why projections are not as optimistic on these scenarios. There are plenty of valid and explainable reasons why these players are not projected to do as well as my wild assumptions. And on top of that, my assumptions also mean that I were to assume the other current PECOTA projections would be accurate, such as Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia posting a 1.9 WARP apiece. A lot could go wrong with those two players. Yet, a lot could right between the two of them. We will all find out beginning today.

My assumptions also include zero pitchers exceeding PECOTA projections, which was not an accident. The rotation is…not good. I contemplated writing an article why Chase Anderson was going to be a good pitcher this season, only to find out his second half stats from last season were due to an extreme 94.3 Left On Base (LOB) percentage in August and 90.3 LOB percentage in September and October. Junior Guerra and Zach Davies put together better than expected seasons in 2016, yet there are many indicators that regression is on its way. Jimmy Nelson is, well, Jimmy Nelson, and seems to disappoint our mildly lofty expectations set for him each season. Nevertheless, BPMilwaukee’s Seth Victor sees some encouraging signs from the former second round pick. Then there is Wily Peralta, who may be the most volatile of the group. If you check out Dylan Svoboda’s latest BPMilwaukee analysis on the righty, there may still be some hope.

The odds are the Brewers will not compete for a playoff spot, let alone be in any sort of contention come the end of July. But it is the start of a new season and it is always fun to daydream when Opening Day comes. Last time I checked, the Brewers and Cubs start with the same record. Maybe the future is closer than it seems.

Related Reading:
Camp Prospects
Replacing Chris Carter
Roster Surprises

However, Aguilar has been playing in the minors since 2008. He has played in 953 games across every level the minors have to offer. During that time, in 3,523 at-bats, he hit .271/.348/.454 with 140 HR, 650 RBI, 214 doubles, and 394 walks. He has been a very productive hitter throughout his career in Cleveland’s organization.

Aguilar has never been given a full chance to showcase his talents in Cleveland, and the rebuilding Brewers figured it would not hurt to give the guy a chance. So far this spring, he has not disappointed. With 43 plate appearances under his belt, he is hitting a robust .417/.512/.806. He leads the team in HR (4) and RBI (11). Trust me, this is all an extremely small sample size, but his performance has not gone unnoticed. There is now a strong possibility he will make the Opening Day roster.

Waiver claim 1B Jesús Aguilar (@JAguilarMKE) today extended his hitting streak to 7 games (9-for-17, .529, 3hr, 6rbi). #CactusCrew

— Mike Vassallo (@MikeVassallo13) March 23, 2017

Currently in Aguilar’s way is Eric Thames, who signed a 3-year, $16 million deal early this winter. The KBO superstar, who hit 40 HR overseas last year, has been a hot topic amongst the baseball community. Projections are all over the map on him, with Steamer giving him a 2.2 WAR in 534 plate appearances, while PECOTA shows a negative 0.2 WARP in 585 plate appearances. There are obviously a lot of unknown factors surrounding the slugger, but the Brewers will give Thames every opportunity to prove himself. That leaves Aguilar in a tough spot. While the team is in rebuilding mode and would like to see all of the potential talent on the roster, Thames will be given a long leash, given his contract and need to adjust back to Major League pitching.

On the surface, these two make a perfect platoon combo. The left-handed hitting Thames, and the right-handed hitting Aguilar should be able to wreak havoc on pitchers throughout the year at Miller Park, easily surpassing the numbers Chris Carter showcased last season.

Unfortunately, that will not be the case. As BPMilwaukee’s Dylan Svoboda pointed out earlier this month, Jesus Aguilar has displayed reverse platoon splits throughout this career. He has dominated right-handed pitching during his career and has put up lesser numbers against lefties. Below is a look at his past three seasons versus pitch-handedness splits in Triple-A.

There are a couple of takeaways from Aguilar’s numbers in Triple-A the past three seasons. His numbers have slowly declined since 2014. He did see a spike in his slugging number this past season, but his slugging percentage was still not at 2014 levels. Secondly, the Venezuelan has seen a steep decline in his numbers against left-handers. A guy who slashed .295/.405/.489 against southpaws in 2014 is now all the way down to .179/.284/.402. Not particularly encouraging signs.

As for Thames, his numbers are also not that impressive against lefties. In his brief MLB career, he has slashed .210/.257/.377 in 148 plate appearances against lefties, while supporting a much healthier .261/.307/.446 line in 536 plate appearances against righties. Thames was deployed considerably more against righties during his first stint in the Majors back in 2011-12.

When checking Thames’s KBO splits this past season, you can probably already assume due to this article’s subject matter that the splits were quite considerable:

Thames did much more damage against righties. The slight positive is that he maintained relatively similar strikeout and walk percentages. But in a broader scope, Thames has put together much more impressive numbers against right-handed pitching.

The next sample size (albeit much smaller) is this spring training. As I mentioned earlier, Aguilar has been the best hitter on the team. And while Thames got off to a relatively slow start, he has been much better as of late. Let’s look at the splits!

Again, we are working with extremely small (!) sample sizes, but who doesn’t love playing with meaningless spring training statistics? Thames has the less impressive statistics and has basically the same slash righty versus lefty. He does have many more walks (and strikeouts) against right-handed pitching.

Aguilar, on the other hand, has feasted on righties. He is batting over .500 with four home runs and two doubles, to go along with a walk rate that is double his strikeout rate. His numbers against lefties is less impressive, as he has a very high strikeout rate with only one extra base hit.

Let me be clear – I am not judging these players by their spring training numbers! However, they do help (to some extremely minor extent) reinforce our understanding of the players Aguilar and Thames are, especially Aguilar. Thames’s numbers are pretty consistent across the board, but history tells us he is a much better hitter against righties. Aguilar continues to show he can mash right-handed pitching, but struggle against lefties.

I am rooting for Aguilar just as much as the next guy and I hope he finds a way to contribute at the Major League level, but I just do not see him having the opportunity to do so – at least early on. Unless Thames is hitting sub-.200 at the end of May, he should be taking most of everyday at-bats. In a perfect world, the Brewers have a perfect platoon – two power hitters that play the same position that hit on opposite sides of the plate. The sad truth is, they probably don’t. Maybe the Brewers do decide to bat Aguilar against lefties, but history tells us he won’t impress.

The Brewers have been a relatively poor defensive ball club since 2010. Below, you will see a table of where the Brewers have ranked in defensive efficiency since 2010, from Baseball Prospectus:

Outside of the 2013 and 2014 seasons, where the Brewers’ defense was carried by the likes of Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, they have never really been know for their prowess in the field.

There is hope for 2017 and beyond, however. Looking at this upcoming season, the Brewers have positioned themselves to be a much better defensive team. The recently acquired Jett Bandy, as well as Andrew Susac and Manny Pina, all should rank as above-average defensive players behind home plate. Travis Shaw, who will be replacing Jonathan Villar at third base, should provide a major defensive upgrade at that position. The transition of Villar to second base, who will overtake Scooter Gennett in that role, should also provide yet another defensive upgrade. Eric Thames certainly comes in as a huge question mark, but can he be much worse than Chris Carter? Plenty of positive signs in the infield.

I will now turn my attention to the outfield. Statcast has released their “https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard”>Catch Probability Leaderboard,” where one will find where outfielders rank in catch probability. Statcast defines this as the “likelihood an outfield catch is made based on opportunity time and distance needed”. The leaderboard provides a breakdown ranking each outfield catch opportunity. A five-star opportunity is when the catch percentage is between 0-25 percent, four-star between 26-50 percent, three-star between 51-75 percent, two-star between 76-90 percent, and one-star between 91-95 percent. Let’s take a look at the Brewers starting outfielders and their Catch Probability metric.

In 75 games and 511 innings in center field, Keon Broxton showed that he could be (and possibly is) an elite-level center fielder. Broxton, a 3^rd round pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2009, was finally able to showcase his talents at the Major League level last season. Acquired in the Jason Rogers trade in December 2015, Broxton not only impressed in the field, but also with an elite-level exit velocity as well. As most Brewers fans are well aware by now, the age-27 centerfielder certainly has the potential to breakout this year and become a superstar.

There may be quite a few questions with at the plate, such as the highest strikeout percentage in Major League Baseball among batters with 240 PA, but there is no doubt regarding Broxton’s skill in the field. In the graph above, you can see that Broxton flashed the glove in 2016. No one else in baseball had three or more five-star catches with fewer than ten opportunities.

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In the video above, I am not entirely sure if this is considered a five-star catch due to Statcast, but I believe it must be up there. You probably watched the video and thought it wasn’t that impressive – certainly not as impressive robbing Anthony Rizzo’s homerun (we will get to that in a second). However, take a second look at the video. Off the bat, Ivan De Jesus Jr. (now a member of the Brewers) has to be feeling good about that stroke. He roped it and should have been extra bases. Not so fast! I realize Broxton was shifted towards the right-center field gap, but look at the ground he covered. Look at his long legs, the strides he takes, and the speed. People tend to believe that a great fielder makes the flashy plays. Bad fielders can make bad reads and make a diving catch. That does not mean they are a good fielder. The great fielders are the ones that make catches like this one look easy.

As for the Rizzo catch, my understanding is that the new Catch Probability tool from Statcast does not capture the excellence of that grab. Catch probability is determined by the hang time of the ball and where it landed. Rizzo’s shot to left-center was in the air for an hour or so. With that being said, if a wall was not there, that catch is made more than half the time. But there was a wall there, and it was an incredible catch! Unfortunately, Statcast’s Catch Probability does not capture “at the wall” moments and the difficulty of those plays. That is one of the current knocks against this tool. And in Broxton’s case, he made many great plays throughout the season at the wall, many that did not qualify as an extraordinary catch.

The picture above shows two different things. In the red is the area in which Broxton made a catch with a catch rate of 75 percent or less. In the green is the area in which a base hit dropped that had a catch rate greater than 25 percent. It may be hard to get a grasp on what is supposed to look good or bad initially, but Broxton shows some serious range and makes numerous difficult outs to his left and his right.

Brewers fans are aware of the skill Broxton displays roaming the field. His long legs, stride, and speed help him turn tough catches into routine ones. Even if he regresses at the plate, he will almost always provide plenty of value in center field.

Ryan Braun began his career as a third baseman, but that experiment ended quickly. He finished the year with negative-32 defensive runs saved, which is the worst ever for a third baseman since that statistic has been measured since 2003.

While Braun has certainly taken some flack over the years for his defense in the outfield, defensive metrics show that he has been just a notch below average in left field. With the production at the plate he has provided over the years, Braun’s inability to play above-average defense in the outfield has not been much of a hindrance.

Looking at Braun’s Catch Probability numbers, they are not great. Out of the 108 players that qualified with at least 50 opportunities, Braun ranked towards the bottom in every benchmark. The only area in which he looks decent is the five-star category, in which he finished in 58^th place. However, 34 qualified players also finished with zero five-star catches, a tie for 72^nd place, so Braun’s ranking in the fifties is not all that impressive.

For the sake of comparison, Braun converted on 14 of his 54 (26 percent) opportunities that were three-star or greater. Broxton converted on 12 of his 21 (57 percent) of the exact same opportunities.

While a majority of those circles dropped in for hits, Braun managed to make a few decent plays that were in front of him. Forget about anything that was hit behind Braun, it was dropping in for a hit.

Take a look at the left-center field gap, where there is a large collection of blue circles. Those base hits, presumably doubles, had a catch rate of at least 80 percent that Braun could not field. On top of that, Braun did not make any catches behind him with a catch rate greater than 25 percent. That is certainly problematic.

Now if you thought Braun was a bad fielder, hold your horses. Among qualifying outfielders, Domingo Santana finishes at the bottom in almost every category. He did not make a single five-star catch, converted on very few four and three-star catches, actually performed “decently” with two-star chances, and brought up the rear in the easiest catches of them all. Santana was a very poor outfielder in 2016.

Last season while Santana was rehabbing with the Timber Rattlers, I went and caught a game in Beloit, Wisconsin, against the Snappers. My intent was to watch Trent Clark, Isan Diaz, and Lucas Erceg play, but was delightfully reminded that Santana would be in attendance as well. Anyways, there was a ball hit to him in right field in the ninth inning of the game. Santana took two or three steps backwards when he finally realized the ball was going to land in front of him. It was a brutal read and the ball dropped right in front of him. Judging by these numbers, this must be something that happens more than once.

Remember Broxton’s range? Take a gander at Santana’s range. This picture is pretty difficult to look at. The tiny triangle of red you see is the ground Santana covered last season. Everything else dropped in for a hit. Just like Braun, Santana has some serious concerns covering the gap towards center field. Everything dropped in for a hit.

Oh, Carlos Gomez; Check out 2013, when the Brewers allowed the fewest doubles and triples that season. I realize that some of this has to do with who is on the mound, but there is some correlation when it comes to the defensive abilities of the outfielders. In 2013, defensive metrics credit Gomez with one of the top-five performances in center field this past decade. He was lights out.

If you have ten minutes of your day to spare, just get onto YouTube and search “carlos gomez catch 2013”. Endless videos of incredible catches appear from that season, and you will not be disappointed.

Gomez was flanked by roughly average defensive outfielders in Braun and Nori Aoki in 2013, which allowed for the Brewers to limit extra base hits. Even if Broxton can perform as well as Gomez in the field, he is playing next to Braun times four years, as well as zero range Santana. Broxton may be good, but he can’t cover the entire outfield.

There are also the past two first round picks, Corey Ray and Trent Clark, who may not profile as well as Brinson in the field, but should be considerably better fielders than Braun and Santana. While those two may be years away from playing in Milwaukee, a guy like Brett Phillips should get a crack in 2017. Phillips is known for a plus-arm and profiles well in a corner spot.

The rebuilding Brewers will probably end up with a poor outfield defense in 2017, at no fault of Broxton roaming in center. However, if Braun gets traded and/or Santana loses playing time due to lack of performance, guys like Brinson and Philips could get the call. Their youth and athleticism bodes well for the future of Milwaukee’s outfield.

Tables and Graphics from Baseball Savant. MLB Advanced Media, LP, 2016.

Dubon committed to the Red Sox after high school and began his career in rookie ball in 2013. Dubon was not your normal high school baseball player, however. Just four years earlier, he left his home in Honduras to pursue his dreams of playing Major League Baseball. “It was tough at the time because I had to leave my mom, my dad, and my brother. It was tough. I was far away from them. But in the long run I knew it was going to pay off, because nothing good comes easy.”

In 2014, following a brief 20 games in rookie ball the year prior, Dubon played in 66 games with the Single-A Lowell Spinners, where he slashed .320/.337/.395. He only had eight doubles and three home runs, while being caught on the base paths more than half of the time (7-for-15). Even though he finished second in the New York-Penn League in hitting, there was a lot left to be desired when it came to other aspects of his game. He was fifth in the league in errors and only finished in the middle of the pack in slugging percentage due to his high batting average.

Dubon did see improvements come 2015. While moving up to full and advanced-A ball, the Honduran infielder added to his on-base and stolen base numbers. His average did drop down to .288 in 120 games, but his on-base percentage jumped 12 points to .349. His walk rate went from 3.3percent in 2014 to 7.7 percent in 2015. As for the stolen bases, Dubon was successful 30 of 37 times. However, the six-foot and 160-pound shortstop saw zero improvements when it came to power, as his slugging percentage actually dipped down to .376.

The start of 2016 was not much different either. Dubon began the season where he ended the season prior, with the advanced-A Salem Red Sox. He played in 62 games with them, hitting .306/.387/.379 with zero home runs and 24 stolen bases. It seemed as if we already knew who Dubon was and the player he was going to be: a quick, slap-hitter, who reached base with his legs. Not a whole lot more than that.

His hitting success led to a promotion midseason, this time to the Class-AA Portland Sea Dogs. And all of the sudden, Dubon became a power hitter.

“Swing-wise, it has always been the same. It was just, [Portland’s manager] and I talked about a few things. When I am in a favorable count, don’t be afraid to swing hard. If you swing and miss, you are still in a good position. When I was in Salem, the ballpark is very big and the hitting conditions are not that good. So, I was just satisfied with making contact and getting base hits, instead of driving the baseball. When I got to Portland, I made the adjustment of swinging – not out of my shoes. But when I had a favorable count – 0-0, 2-0, 3-1, I made sure to make a good swing and make solid contact.”

That advice from manager Carlos Febles certainly paid off. In the 62 games he was a member of the Sea Dogs, Dubon hit 20 doubles, six triples, and six home runs. In his previous 186 games, he had 29 doubles, four triples, and eight home runs. Not only did his power spike, he hit .339 to go along with his newfound .538 slugging percentage. “I let the game come to me. I was not trying to look for something. I have been trying to get stronger and hit the ball harder. There are more opportunities to get base hits, get on base, and score runs.”

I was surprised to hear that Dubon did not change much in his swing to garner these results. Typically, a change this drastic in production comes from a major adjustment in a player’s swing. With the right-handed hitter, all he needed was a different approach and mentality at the plate. I followed up my asking him whether or not his game plan was to become more aggressive and to take advantage of a hitter’s pitch.

“Yes. I was looking for something elevated. It was not something out of this world that I was trying to do. It was more just trying to hit the ball hard. I wasn’t trying to hit home runs at all. I was just trying to do more damage at the plate.”

Even before the sudden spurt of power in Portland, Dubon had reduced his ground ball rate each and every year. In 2014, over 60 percent of his balls in play were hit on the ground. The next season, that number dropped to 56 percent. But in his most successful year, the 2016 season, that number came all the way down to 47 percent. That is a significant improvement. As you can imagine, his fly ball percentage climbed every year as well. And most importantly, he started to drive the ball to all parts of the field and into the gaps.

Courtesy of MLBfarm.com, this visual shows Dubon’s much-improved batted balls profile. His spray chart in 2014 is pretty ugly, as most of his balls were hit in the infield. You can see improvements in 2015, with more batted balls to the outfield. However in 2016, the former Red Sox prospect utilized all parts of the field and hit the ball much deeper more often. If only there was data on minor league exit velocity and launch angle (sigh).

Dubon has not changed much this offseason and continues to put in the work. He begins his days at 10 AM with a two-hour workout, followed by a lunch break. Then at 2 PM, he will hit for roughly four hours, wrapping up with some drills at shortstop. Routine is something the 22-year-old enjoys, and it has allowed for him to improve on every aspect of his game this winter.

“There is always something to improve on. I wish I could run faster. I wish I could hit the ball harder. I wish I could field the ball better. Right now, I am preparing myself to get to that player I want to be. Rome wasn’t built in one day. I still need to keep constantly working and to trust the process.”

In the Arizona Fall League just a few months ago, Dubon showcased his abilities in centerfield, as he started on occasion in the outfield. He is more than likely a shortstop going forward, but I asked him what the Brewers had planned for his development. “Whatever gets me up there, I’ll do it. I am a baseball player and I am not a one-position type of guy. If they want me to play the outfield, I will play the outfield.”

Character, work ethic, and a desire to succeed is what has made Dubon into the blossoming prospect he has become today. He left everything he ever knew when he was a 15-year-old freshman in high school to pursue his dream and passion. Time can only tell whether or not the Honduran-born infielder will don a Major League jersey one day, but it is a certain that Dubon will do everything in his power to see his dreams come to fruition.

Burnes, along with first year head coach Eric Valenzuela, struggled out of the gate in their first season at St. Mary’s together in 2014. The right-hander went 0-4 in 19 appearances (five starts) with 21 walks and a 6.18 ERA in 43.2 innings pitched. On top of that, the team limped to a 16-39 record. “We threw him into the fire early”, Valenzuela stated. However, just the following season, the Gaels (St. Mary’s mascot) finished above .500 with a 28-27 record. Burnes led the team in innings pitched (89) and boasted a 3.74 ERA with 91 strikeouts and a diminished walk rate.

Just this past season, Burnes, Valenzuela, and the Gaels went on to win their first ever conference championship, going 33-25 during the regular season. Burnes led the team in starts (16), wins (9), complete games (3), ERA (2.48), strikeouts (120), and batting average against (.212). It was a huge season for the Bakersfield native and certainly put him on the map for Major League ball clubs.

“He [Burnes] came in my first year here as the head coach and in three years, we were able to go from 16 wins, to 28 wins, to winning the conference in Year 3 for the first time in school history. Corbin was a big part of that. Watching him get better on the mound each year showed the type of guy he was and he really proved his stuff. I would say his work ethic, both on and off the field, is probably his number one quality and his ability to improve and adapt.”

After speaking with Valenzuela, I was able to learn more about who Burnes was a person and as a player. St. Mary’s coach described him as a “very good student, great grades, never any problems off the field – it was all about business.” He also continued to point out the righty’s fantastic work ethic and drive. However, after asking Valenzuela what might be something Burnes could improve on to fulfill his potential, his “all-out” personality was something that hampered him at times.

“I would say the biggest thing for him is that he is so competitive. Pitching is a little different. He pitches like he is a middle linebacker. It is energy. It is intensity. It is ‘Full Metal Jacket’ with him when he is on the mound, and I think at times he goes a little too fast. He goes a little too hard and sometimes with pitching, you have to take a step back and take a deep breath and regroup a bit. I think the biggest thing for him, and he knows this, is just to slow it down a bit, not get too excited, and not to overthrow.”

When I spoke to Burnes about this topic, he sided with his former coach. The right-hander mentioned to me that growing up he was not much of a pitcher, but more of a middle infielder. He didn’t really begin to seriously pursue pitching until his senior year of high school. With that being said, Burnes still had a lot to learn about becoming a pitcher.

“Since being here with Coach Valenzuela, I have learned you can’t just get on the mound and start throwing as hard as you can, because mechanically you aren’t going to be there and the ball will be all over the place. The fastball, I can amp up on it when I need to, it’s there. But like you said, when I get into trouble is when I am trying to throw the fastball 100 MPH and trying to put it by guys, when maybe I should be trying to tone it back, hit spots, stay under control, and not fly open. The main thing for me is staying mechanically sound, staying on top of the baseball, and staying in control.”

While the 22-year-old may occasionally struggle with being overly amped, he was a very good pitcher his sophomore year of college, a fantastic pitcher his junior year, and in limited time, pitched very well during his first season of professional ball as well. Between rookie ball and his time with the Timber Rattlers, Burnes finished the season with a 2.02 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 35.2 innings pitched. Opposing batters hit a miniscule .185 against him. He also faced eight hitters that were ranked in the top-30 within their organization. Those hitters went 1-for-16 with zero extra base hits, zero walks, and four strikeouts.

The only minor negative during his first season was his starter-reliever splits. While toggling around his splits, I saw a major difference in his numbers when he started and when he came out of the bullpen. As a reliever, Burnes was lights out. In 13 innings, he allowed four hits, zero runs, three walks, and struck out 16. But as a starter, he posted a 4.02 ERA in 15.2 innings pitched, while also walking 13. Albeit a small sample size, I had to ask him about these splits. Burnes didn’t seem too worried.

“I think that was more coincidence than anything. It just happened to be that every time I started, it happened to be a day that I was mechanically off. If you go back and look at all the stats that I had through college, most of it came as a starter. I am definitely more comfortable in a starting role, but whatever the Brewers have planned for me, I am going to follow it. I think that the stats in Wisconsin were just more coincidence than anything.”

Before being drafted by the Brewers in the fourth round this past season, Burnes was grabbing the attention of front office members and scouts with his mid-90’s fastball and plus breaking ball. When I asked him about his pitching repertoire, he talked about his fastball and curveball, but also his slider and changeup.

“During the first couple of weeks of college, my coach [Eric Valenzuela], we started to mess with a slider. That actually developed as a good pitch for me and I threw the slider more than the curveball. We felt like it was the better pitch. And the biggest thing that was really key for me to get to that next level was my changeup. Coming out of high school with just two pitches, you can get away with pumping fastballs by guys. But when you get to college, you have to learn to change speeds. Going from freshman year, to sophomore year, to eventually last year, my changeup has made huge strides. I think has helped me quite a bit to get me on the radar and to get drafted. Even taking it to pro ball, it wasn’t as crisp as I would have liked, but it has been one of the pitches I have been working on the most. I think that will be the biggest step for me – throwing a good changeup.”

As Burnes pointed out, it seems as if he has gone back and forth with his slider and curveball when it comes to comfort and confidence. He expressed that during college he felt more comfortable with his slider, but that when he joined the Brewers’ organization, his slider didn’t feel as crisp and that he began to use his curveball more as an out-pitch. And went it came to left-handed hitters, Burnes enjoyed utilizing his changeup to set them down. The fourth rounder said that going forward, he will continue to improve upon those pitches and have more options when it comes to an out-pitch.

Taking another look at Burnes’ first professional season, another interesting thing that stuck out to me was the amount of groundballs he produced. When looking at his batted ball breakdown, more than 64 percent of those balls in play were hit on the ground. For comparisons sake, no qualified starter in Major League Baseball had a higher number (Marcus Stroman led the league at 60.1 percent). When incorporating relievers with more than 50 innings pitched, only Zach Britton, Blake Treinen, Sam Dyson, and Clayton Richard came in at a higher rate than the St. Mary’s product.

This offseason when Burnes isn’t teeing off and enjoying the beautiful golf weather in sunny California, he has continued to work extremely hard in the weight room and on the field. I asked him what his goals and expectations were coming into this upcoming season.

“I am not necessarily a result-oriented guy. For me, it’s more of just putting in the work. I have put in a lot of work this offseason to get my body into the shape I want it to be and my arm to be as strong as it can be so I can be durable. For me, it’s just going out and working hard everyday – getting on the field and showing what I have and giving 100 percent effort. I think for me to be able to get through this system is just going to be gaining command of the strike zone. Where I get in trouble is when I start walking guys and putting guys on base, so for me it is just getting the ball in the strike zone and everything else will fall into place.”

The 6-foot-3 right-hander will be reporting with the organization come mid-February. After showcasing his talents his sophomore and junior of college, as well as his first half-season as a professional, the sky is the limit when it comes to his potential. With his dominating fastball and four-pitch repertoire, he certainly has the capability of becoming a Major League starter in the coming years. All it will take is some repetition and a better command of the zone. Keep your eyes on Corbin Burnes in 2017.

Heading into the 2017 season, the California native has been ranked the 8^th best prospect in a loaded Brewers farm system according to Baseball Prospectus. I had the pleasure of speaking with him as he reflected on his 2016 season, discussed his offseason preparations, and touched on his goals for 2017.

I spoke to Erceg over the phone, as he was in Santa Clara visiting his old Menlo College team. Due to the extreme rainfall in the area, their stadium is completely underwater. He recently returned from Arizona, where many Brewers first-year prospects had spent a week with members of the organization.

“They were basically just checking up on me and 20-25 other guys to see how we have been doing. As soon as we got there, we immediately started off with FMS testing – which I believe is function, mobility, stability type of stuff. They wanted to see our range of motion, see how flexible we are, see what types of workouts we have been doing. We also did some body composition tests to see what our body fat percentage is.”

Prior to his trip to Arizona, Erceg had been enjoying his offseason.

“My offseason has been going great. It has been the longest period of time I have taken off of baseball so far. Still trying to get into the rhythm of figuring out what my schedule is. For the most part, I have been getting after it in the weight room. The Brewers told me to gain a little bit of weight, but stay lean. I have been working out in the weight room and been trying to take as much time out of the day to get out to the field or go to the batting cages to keep up with my routine, because I am always one to work as hard as I can.”

According to Erceg’s MiLB page, he stands at 6-foot-3 and weighs 200 pounds. However, Erceg mentioned to me he was down to 195 pounds or so towards the end of the season. “I have been eating nothing but gains – trying to fork down as much chicken, rice, and vegetables as possible. I have really been focusing on trying to eat the right things and staying away from the late night McDonald’s runs.” If you take a look at the 21-year-old, you can see there is a lot of room to add to his wiry frame. “I told them at the end of instructional league that I wanted to get to 210, maybe 215 – just to put on some muscle. But they told me don’t worry about gaining as much weight as possible. Just try to get stronger and keep your body fat percentage down.”

If it weren’t for Erceg’s lack of at-bats, his .497 slugging percentage would have placed him second in the Midwest League behind Eloy Jimenez. Prior to his first professional season, the third baseman showcased his power in college as well. He ranked second in the Pac-12 in home runs (11) and eighth in slugging percentage (.502) during his sophomore season at Cal. During his final college season at Menlo College, he hit 20 home runs in 56 games and sported a .639 slugging percentage. And like I mentioned earlier and in the video you can watch above, I was able to witness a pretty effortless three-run homerun in person off of his bat. If Erceg can put on 10 to 15 pounds of muscle, watch out.

“Everyone growing up asked me, “How do you hit the ball so far? How are you so good at hitting? You are so skinny”. Growing up, I never really touched a weight. I just worried about playing and trying to get better at the game of baseball, instead of worrying about how big I am. This offseason was definitely more of a step back from the game and work on actually trying to get bigger – but at the same time trying to improve my game.”

Outside of mainly focusing on gaining a few more pounds this offseason, the Menlo College product has been working on all parts of his game. He mentioned to me that he that his flexibility has been an issue for him in the past and that he has made an effort to improve in that area, especially his hip flexors. On top of that, Erceg has been working on staying below the ball when fielding ground balls.

Even after a fantastic 2016, there are still many areas to improve on when it comes to his game. 44 percent of his balls in play last year were hit on the ground and were primarily pulled to the right side of the field.

“I saw those stats and said to myself, ‘What am I thinking at the plate?’ I know every successful hitter in [the MLB] always has the approach to hit the fastball the other way and just reacting at off speed. For the most part, that has been my approach at the plate. But after this first offseason, I have kind of shied away from pulling the ball. My last season in college I got nothing but off speed, so I ended up pulling most of the balls that I hit. Coming into this season, I am really going to try to work on hitting the ball the other way with power. At the same time, if a pitch happens to be in, I can use my leverage and hit the ball out to right.  I think a lot of it has to do with my mentality at the plate. I do tend to get pull-happy, especially when I am doing well. If I am able to stick to my approach to hit the ball the other way, I think that will help me out in the long run.”

Heat Map from MLBfarm.com

While Erceg hit 44 percent of his balls on the ground last year, he hit another 35 percent as fly balls and 20 percent for line drives. If you were to compare his LD%/GB%/FB% to some Major League players from last season, his numbers match up with Jason Heyward, Kevin Pillar, Stephen Piscotty, and Maikel Franco. While that may not be the greatest collection of offensive talent you have ever seen, there is still plenty of room for improvement for the Brewers second round draft pick. Erceg just needs to find a way to elevate the ball more often, spray it to all parts of the field, and keep from rolling over pitches. I believe if he can make those adjustments, he could be a serious offensive threat.

As for the 21-year-old’s personality, I noticed that he was a people’s person right away when I watched him on the field last season. On the field, Erceg would be chatting with everyone – the pitcher, the shortstop, the third base coach, the runners on third base, you name it. The third baseman was always trying to spark up a conversation.

“I love talking to people. When I am playing, I am trying to separate myself from the game. If that’s talking to the 3rd base coach, or my shortstop, or anybody on the field, that is going to help me forget about my prior at-bat. It helps me get focused on doing what I have to do on the field to do all of the right things. I always try to have as much fun as possible when I am on the field.”

I reached out to Jake McKinley, Erceg’s former head coach at Menlo College, and got the chance to learn even more about Erceg as a player and as a person.

“I think on the field, I would say his strongest quality is being a very adaptable player. Regardless of the circumstance, he was always going to be ready to go. I think that is a tough thing for an amateur player to do. Really, just to have the maturity to play the game pitch to pitch and be present on that pitch – it was just something about him.”

McKinley also went onto say that the former Cal player was always able to clear his head each and every at-bat – one of the main reasons why the third baseman saw so much success at Menlo. He continued on to say that Erceg is even a better person off the field, someone who was just a “nice, humble, welcoming, and inviting human being”.

I asked the fourth year head coach about what Erceg could improve on as well.

“I think when he was playing for us, it was a circus at times. We would have as many as 50 scouts at a game, as many as 20 at a practice. I think inevitably there  are some distractions there and he handled himself so well. But at the same time, I think naturally a guy like him might put some pressure on himself to perform, might put some pressure on himself to get to the big leagues as soon as possible. While I think that is fine, I always had to remind Lucas like, ‘Hey man, don’t   forget to go out there and see how much fun you can have. Don’t forget to keep the pleasure greater than the pressure.’”

The initial impression that everyone has developed on Erceg after his first professional season is that he is a lean, power-hitting third baseman. However, I was surprised after Erceg shared a story with me regarding him and Brewers’ Vice President of Amateur Scouting Ray Montgomery. Erceg stated to Montgomery that he wanted to hit 20 home runs this upcoming season. Montgomery replied back that if Erceg can hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases, he will buy him a steak dinner. Nothing better than giving one of your up-and-coming prospects a little bit of incentive. With that being said, not many scouts and experts foresee the third baseman having any base stealing abilities. McKinley thought otherwise:

“I always thought that [baserunning] was one of his strengths, because he’s got a great feel for the game. Speed wise, on a big league scale, I would say he is a pretty average runner – maybe slightly above. But he has long strides and can get to full speed pretty fast. I actually think he could be a base stealing threat this summer and hopefully when he makes it to the big leagues. He is really good when it relates to reading a pitcher and identifying tendencies and exposing them. I actually think that is an underrated part about him. He is a great baserunner.”

Erceg did steal eight bases in 26 games with Helena, but was only successful on one of four attempts with the Timber Rattlers. I would be surprised to see the 21-year-old steal double-digit bags, but maybe there is something we just don’t see yet. If stealing bags is something he can add to his arsenal, we may see him as one of the better prospects in the league.

In the limited time I saw Erceg in person while he played for Timber Rattlers this past season, I did notice he seemed a bit aggressive at the plate. After striking out 13.9 percent of the time in Helena, his strikeout rate spiked to 21.1 percent in Appleton. He was first pitch hacking and would chase some pitches out of the zone. While it didn’t necessarily hamper his offensive production, this is an aspect Erceg needs to address this upcoming season. This was also a part of the game that McKinley saw as something he could improve on.

“There were a lot of times he would get up there and swing first and maybe chase a pitch that was more of a pitcher’s pitch – as opposed to a pitch he could drive. Now it looks like in pro ball, maybe he addressed that a little bit. It is tough for me to say. But when I coached him, I would say – patience at the plate and understand who you are. He is a guy who can change the course of the game with just one swing of the bat and the opponents know that. In a lot of cases, they aren’t going to go right at him. They are going to try to pitch around him and induce a chase. I think he needs to be aware of that.”

It sounds as if Erceg will be working and training with his former coach and Menlo College teammates prior to him arriving at Spring Training in mid-February. McKinley mentioned to me that he reached out to his former player to see if he wanted to prepare for the upcoming season just like he did last year and figured it would help him get a routine going. He even pointed out that Erceg has had a wonderful impact on the younger kids on the team and that he has been coaching them up a little bit – unprovoked by the Menlo coaching staff.

2017 will be a pivotal year for the left-handed hitter. While no one is exactly sure where he will start the season, this will be his first full season as a professional. We will be able to get more of a feel for his potential and whether or not he can add to his frame, hit for more power, or maybe even steal a few more bases. There are certainly adjustments Erceg will need to make as he moves through the ranks, but after speaking with him and his college coach, I am pretty confident he will be working as hard as possible to make an impact on the organization.