The Graduate

2. LHP Josh Hader

Hader was ranked as the Brewers’ #2 prospect entering the 2017 season, and he did not disappoint during his first taste of big league action. The lefty spent the first few months of the season struggling in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but once the projected Super Two cutoff had comfortably passed the Brewers brought Hader up to join a struggling bullpen. He was a revelation in a true fireman role, tossing 47.7 innings of 2.08 ERA baseball covering 35 appearances. He struck out batters in bunches, registering 12.8 K/9, while holding opponents to a .204 TAv. If ERA isn’t enough to illustrate his dominance, he also recorded an 86 cFIP and 80 DRA-. Inconsistent command and secondaries call into question whether or not Hader can eventually become a starter, but he looks to at least have fulfilled his floor of impact reliever.

Bull Market

1. OF Lewis Brinson

The 23 year old outfielder was Milwaukee’s #1 prospect last year, and there’s little doubt that the title will be bestowed upon him once again heading into 2018. In his first extended run at the minors highest level, Brinson pounded opposing pitchers to the tune of a .331/.400/.562 slash with 13 home runs and 11 steals in 76 games. He struggled in his brief MLB debut and suffered (yet another) injury in August that ended his season early, but those issues should do little to dim his long-term outlook.

6. OF Brett Phillips

Like Brinson, Maverick Phillips got his first extended taste of the AAA level in 2017 and thrived. A year after grappling with Southern League pitching, Phillips torched the PCL for a .305/.377/.567 batting line with 19 long balls and 10 steals. Unlike Brinson, Phillips opened up some eyes within the organization during an outstanding September in the big leagues, and ended 2017 with an MLB slash of four big league dingers, five steals, a .293 TAv, and some stellar defensive play in center field (+4.4 FRAA). He’s still got a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but that’s becoming more and more prevalent throughout the league. Phillips appears to be on the inside track for the center field job in Milwaukee next spring.

Holding Steady

8. 3B Lucas Erceg

Erceg got off to a slow start in a tough league for hitters down in Carolina, but came on strong once summer officially hit. His .256/.307/.417 slash doesn’t jump off the page, but he did post an .807 OPS after June 1st and only four batters in the Carolina League slugged more than his 15 home runs. Erceg doesn’t look like he’ll be more than an average hitter who doesn’t walk much, but the power could be above-average to plus and Baseball America ranked his as both the top defensive third baseman and the top infield arm in the Carolina League this season.

9. SS/2B Mauricio Dubon

Dubon split the year between AA and AAA and displayed quality bat-to-ball skills and nifty defensive ability at both second base and shortstop. He didn’t brandish the power that he showed during his AA stint in Boston’s organization in 2016, though, but not many people really expected him to. Dubon’s game is built around high contact and speed, and he could contribute at the big league level as soon as this coming season.

10. RHP Cody Ponce

Ponce stayed healthy in 2017, which was one of the more worrisome issues regarding his development previously. He fills the zone and doesn’t walk many hitters, but his velocity hasn’t been quite what it was during his college days. His stuff is inconsistent at times and he didn’t miss a ton of bats this year, registering only 6.7 K/9. But he did throw nearly 140 innings in 2017 between high-A and AA while logging a 3.14 ERA, helping make his projection as a inning-eating back end starter that much more realistic.

Bear Market

3. OF Corey Ray

Ray’s been a pretty big disappointment in the early stages of his career since Milwaukee popped him fifth overall in 2016. He’s struggled adjusting to even average fastball velocity, and was overmatched to the tune of a league-leading 156 strikeouts in 112 games (31 percent K-rate) with Carolina this past season. He’s become a well-regarded defender in center field and has speed to burn, but after batting .238/.311/.367 with 7 homers this season, he’s started getting some grades as a future fourth outfielder.

4. 2B/SS Isan Diaz

Diaz has been lauded as one of the top-hitting middle infield prospects in the game, but that didn’t really come to fruition in 2017. His power was way down as he clubbed 13 home runs in Carolina (from 20 the year before in low-A) and saw a 50+ point drop in his ISO. He also had issues with expanding his strike zone and whiffed in nearly 27 percent of his plate appearances. Given that he’s unlikely to stick at shortstop with his limited range, there’s a lot of pressure on his bat to develop. A .222/.334/.376 slash in A-ball isn’t going to cut it.

5. RHP Luis Ortiz

Ortiz spent the entire year in AA at the age of 21 in 2017 and finished with a respectable 4.01 ERA in 94.3 innings, which was a career-high. But he missed time once again with injury, which is concerning given his reputation for poor conditioning and a “bad body.” For as much talk as there’s been about his advanced stuff, he didn’t get a lot of whiffs against his Southern League competition, registering 7.5 K/9, while also issuing a career-worst 3.5 BB/9. While there’s still hope for an above-average starter, he’s behind the eight-ball when it comes to building an innings base and needs to show that he’s capable of handling a full-season’s workload.

7. OF Trent Clark

Another Ray Montgomery 1st-rounder that has so far failed to live up to expectations. Clark was considered the most advanced high school bat in the 2015 class, but so far in the professional ranks he’s been dinged for being far too passive in the strike zone. His reserved approach helps him get on base at a high clip and draw plenty of walks against low-level pitching, but that won’t be sustainable as he climbs the minor league ladder. He has yet to find any semblance of consistent power, either, as his OBP (.360) was higher than his SLG (.348) in 2017. This purportedly “advanced hitter” could manage only a .223 average in 2017 while striking out at a 24 percent clip. His limited arm strength means that left field is probably the best fit long-term, putting even ore pressure on the bat to start developing.

This is a fascinating development for a franchise that has not been known for pitching, and fans and analysts may have to get used to this scenario: the arms are ahead of the bats across the system. In 2017, while consecutive first round draft picks Corey Ray and Trent Clark backpedaled, pop-up pitcher Corbin Burnes posted a phenomenal year and saw his stuff tick ahead after noted mechanical adjustments in his delivery. But the pitching development hardly ends with Burnes, who exemplifies the current stock of middle-to-back end rotation starting pitching prospects that grade out as thoroughly solid quality within that role; reports cooled on Cody Ponce, but he had a ho hum innings building season, as did Luis Ortiz at Class-AA; Freddy Peralta was chasing Burnes for most impactful pitching season within the minors; his trademate Carlos Herrera took a big step forward in full season ball; and behind these quality depth options, Trey Supak, Josh Pennington, and others still had quite fine seasons.

Related Reading:
2017 Brewers Minors: Bats

There is a type of depth with these pitchers that simply cannot be matched by the current bats in the Brewers system. Currently, the bats feature multiple risk factors, especially in terms of developing hit tools. This profile not only suits graduates Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips, but also the aforementioned Clark and Ray, among others. Perhaps the selection of Keston Hiura in the 2017 draft is most important to counteract this risky trend, although Hiura simply reapplies that risk in a different area of the game. If the Brewers bats currently fit the profile of “could be big tools impact” / “might not make it out of a bench role,” the arms are quite the opposite, with no true top-end pitching prospect in the system. It’s a beautiful thing: not one ace. But among those non-aces, perhaps a number of starters that could prove as “boring” as Zach Davies, or have question marks answered like Chase Anderson or even Jimmy Nelson.

One gets the sense that these Brewers arms could be plugged in the rotation any which way, which should be considered an exciting affair given the recent hype of pitching coach Derek Johnson’s blank-slate, situational-personal coaching approach. It should also be mentioned that in an era of velocity, the top Milwaukee arms are hardly flamethrowers, which adds an interesting question about whether the Brewers are exploiting undervalued aspects of the game (I know that’s a played out question by now, but still…), or simply whether the Brewers have found a profile of arm that fits their system or organizational approach.

To accompany the statistical index of 2017 Brewers minor league bats, I have prepared an index of statistics for the 2017 arms in the affiliated ranks. To provide basic consistency with the survey range for the bats, I translated the initial scale of 50 batting PA to 16.7 pitching IP for assessing seasons. This largely produced a similar number of players across leagues, which also means that league median statistic figures should have a solid range to reflect statistical context.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, righty Eric Hanhold played his age-23 season at Class-Advanced A Carolina, where the median age was also 23; his index is therefore 1.00 for that statistic.

It should be noted that I calculated the index in a different way for pitching prospects in order to remain consistent with the batting index. This means that an overall index greater than 1.00 suggests that a pitcher’s OPS-allowed was better than the average contextual indicators in the league, and that an index below 1.00 means that pitcher was below average given the context of the league. In order to provide additional context to an index that only weighs age, park factor, and opposing OPS alongside OPS-allowed, I added a Deserved Run Average (DRA) index so that readers can compare outcomes and reflect on the validity of the OPS-allowed index.

This index is slightly different than the batting index, since there are different OPS values for pitchers and their opponents (for example, a batter is facing tougher opposition if the opposing OPS is lower; for pitchers, tougher opposition means higher OPS from opponents). For this reason:

+1.00 Age Index means “younger” than league average age.

+1.00 oppOPS Index means better than average opponents (compared to the league).

+1.00 Park Index means hitter’s park.

This index should not be read as a significant, be-all / end-all assessment of pitching performance. Instead, it should be read alongside other statistics and scouting reports as an indicator of the context in which the pitcher performed, as well as how their advanced performance (via DRA) compared to the league.

A few observations:

• Like the batting index, the “non-prospects” immediately dominate this pitching index. Trey Supak has been a deep cut since the Brewers acquired the projection-upside play in the Jason Rogers trade, and the righty worked what finally would be his first full season….at age 21. Taylor Jungmann is hardly even old for Class-AAA Colorado Springs as an organizational depth option. Quiet relief prospect Bubba Derby, a member of the Khris Davis trade, worked a season that matches the “contextual” aspects of Corbin Burnes or Supak (his trademate Jacob Nottingham also had a fine season on the batting index). Freddy Peralta looks like loads of fun, bringing numerous fastball and off-speed / breaking ball offerings and a funky delivery to keep hitters off balance. In this case, the command aspects (and delivery repetition due to a crossfire set-up) of the scouting report should be read alongside the index to round out future role and expectations, but it is undeniable that Peralta placed himself on the radar of quality organizational depth (at worst) in 2017.

• Cody Ponce had quite an interesting year in terms of DRA deviating from his other contextual factors. In terms of OPS, age, and park factors, Ponce scored well in both Carolina and Biloxi. Yet, the righty’s DRA did not stack up against either league, with DRA index of 0.86 and 0.97 in both assignments, respectively. The big righty is making his way up the organizational ladder, however, and it’s tough not to dream on that cutter or fastball at least helping Ponce secure a solid bullpen role of some sort.

• BP scouting team member James Fisher provided a detailed description of Jordan Yamamoto for last season’s midseason prospect feature, noting that delivery refinements and stuff progression drove the righty’s stock. Yamamoto continued to build on that 2016 notice with an excellent 2017 campaign, arguably putting together the most interesting pitching season in the organization (Burnes received the hype, but Yamamoto could have defined a role).The righty was extremely young for the Carolina League, and if the progression continues, the youngster could be primed to expand on a 140+ IP floor during his age-22 season at Class-AA Biloxi. It is worth noting that Yamamoto did not face tough competition in Carolina, although the funky park factors and his age did mightily correct for that indicator. If you’re skeptical about the index, DRA likes Yamamoto even more.

• Additional potential 2018 pop-ups / projection guys who posted better than average contextual index and DRA scores: Zack Brown, Josh Pennington, Braden Webb, and Thomas Jankins. Keep an eye on: Parker Berberet (!!!), Luis Ortiz, Jorge Lopez, Matt Ramsey, and Jon Perrin.

Related Reading:
3 Up 3 Down: May
3 Up 3 Down: April
2016 Series

With this in mind, myself and Assistant Editor Kyle Lesniewski, with help from Baseball Prospectus prospect gurus Craig Goldstein and John Eshleman, have assembled a midseason deluxe edition of “3 Up, 3 Down.” Consider this an entry in lieu of a midseason Top 30 ranking. Ranking prospects at this point is definitely in demand from many fans, but I’d like to offer this type of content in lieu of a ranking. This editorial decision is justifiable with a system such as Milwaukee’s, I believe, especially because the very top prospects are graduating (meaning, say, RHP Luis Ortiz and 2B Isan Diaz are perhaps most likely to take the top spots in the organization), but also because talent is bunched together at so many points.

If the Brewers control approximately 200 professionals within their affiliated system, a Top 30 list comprises the top 15 percent of the system. With that in mind, it’s worth emphasizing that such a list can only ever split hairs over the most elite talent within the system. Outside of the true top talent role projections (such as Ortiz and Diaz, for example, the One Percenters of the system), there are more question marks and more risk that define ranges of talent between #3-to-#10 (next 4 percent), and then organizational depth roles that define #11-20 (rounding out the top 10 percent). Consider previous Top Ten residents like Nottingham or Monte Harrison; are these players headed back to the Top 10 give Nottingham’s bat rounding out and likelihood to stick behind the dish? Or Harrison’s resolution of tools into a ballplayer? Where do you put Top 10 newcomers like Feliciano and Burnes? What about Jake Gatewood? To this, one might be able to debate about each player’s top MLB potential and likely MLB floor role (or organizational depth role), but to that point it is also worth asking whether it matters that Feliciano slots in at, say, #6 instead of #15, or Burnes at #9 instead of #14. So, consider this feature an exercise in thinking through layers of quality depth that define a system that is going to be quite volatile after Brinson and Hader are gone (and probably with them, too), but a strong system nonetheless.

3 UP
UTIL Jake Gatewood, Advanced A Carolina (picked by John Eshleman): Following BPMilwaukee’s list last year, Jake Gatewood is quite a regular face in the midseason 3 Up, 3 Down, but that’s simply a reflection of the stages of this prospect’s progression. James Fisher scouted Gatewood at A Wisconsin in spring 2016, noting that “much of his improvement has come this year from an adjustment in his starting position. He has lowered his hands slightly and that has led to a much shorter and direct path to the ball. While his plate discipline is still suspect, he has been making harder and more consistent contact.” This observation accompanied the pick of Gatewood as a power prospect to watch, especially after a surge in Rookie Helena to close 2015. Following Fisher’s observation, Gatewood made another set of adjustments over the 2016-2017 offseason and has been one of the great surprises of the 2017 season.

John Eshleman writes, “his power has already been widely acknowledged, but this year he is less vulnerable to spin and pitches out of the zone. [This] not only shows up in his walk rate but also puts him in more hitters counts to tap that power.” Adjustments breeding adjustments, and another question mark answered; in this placement it almost appears that Fisher raised the question of Gatewood’s discipline for Eshleman to answer it this year. So here Gatewood stands, now receiving plenty of time at 1B, carving himself a nice role as a Brewers corner prospect while exposing the irony of prospect hype: it seems absurd to call this age-21 player “post hype” in 2017, but I’m also not sure Gatewood is a sleeper any longer. Look for these adjustments to round out an upper minors organizational ceiling into something that may be better suited to crack the big league roster (and goodness knows David Stearns is eyeing that SS / 3B / LF / 1B positional pedigree). Power and flexibility should hopefully keep Gatewood on close watch in this system.

1B Garrett Cooper, AAA Colorado Springs (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): The Milwaukee Brewers have one of the best farm systems in baseball, littered with top-100 prospects like Lewis Brinson, Corey Ray, and Isan Diaz. But who has the best OPS of anyone in Milwaukee’s system currently? None other than the org’s 2013 6th-round pick, Garrett Cooper. The hulking product of Auburn University has displayed a penchant for contact throughout his minor league career, but has never really displayed the power that one typically likes to see from a player that primarily mans first base. That is, until now. After popping what was a career-high 9 home runs in 128 games last season between Class-AA and Class-AAA, Cooper has already blasted 14 long balls in just 64 games this season. A career .303/.366/.463 hitter in five seasons, Cooper has tattooed Pacific Coast League pitching to the tune of a .357/.412/.614 slash this season, with his .257 ISO nearly 100 points better than his career average (though it’s worth noting his home OPS at Colorado Springs of 1.258 is much higher than his .805 OPS on the road). A toned-down leg kick appears to have helped the 26 year old right-handed hitter tap more consistently into the power than a man standing at 6’6″ and 230 lbs should be able to generate. Unfortunately for Garrett, he is currently blocked at the big league level by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Cooper was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft after being left unprotected last season but given his improved level of production this year, it’s easy to imagine someone taking a shot on him if he’s left off the 40-man roster once again this winter.

2B Keston Hiura, Rookie Arizona (picked by Nicholas Zettel): In one sense, it’s absurd to place Hiura on this list. Hiura is not on this list because of his hitting surge in Rookie ball, where the age-20 Hiura is already old. Rather, even though some scouting outlets disagreed on the strength of Hiura’s bat (without disagreeing that the bat is the calling card for the advanced college prospect), the major question marks for Hiura revolved around both his defense and his injured elbow. The Brewers beat has reported that Hiura is working at Arizona on a throwing program before playing in the field, so the jury is out on that fielding grade for the prospect. A 2B-profile without an average glove but a great hit tool make Hiura look like a rich man’s Scooter Gennett (a good thing, if perhaps a floor). However, upon being drafted, the Brewers learned that Hiura does not require surgery for his elbow injury, which adds quite a bit of immediate certainty to the prospect profile (and no, I don’t buy that the line that “recovering from Tommy John surgery is easier for position players” reduces the uncertainty involved in rehabbing a prospect from surgery). Thus, the Brewers have their top draft pick on a throwing program rather than a surgery rehab program, and this (to my mind) allows Hiura’s top ceiling to tick slightly less risky.

3 DOWN
C Andrew Susac, AAA Colorado Springs (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Though no longer technically a prospect (he’s taken 262 turns at the plate in the MLB), plenty of folks around Milwaukee hoped that Susac could become a multiyear starter for the Brewers behind the plate after he was acquired in the Will Smith trade from San Francisco last year. An injury during spring training this year helped cost him a spot on the Opening Day roster and delayed the start of his regular season by a few weeks, but since returning to action in mid-April the former top-100 prospect has struggled to get much of anything going at the plate. He’s split time with Tyler Heineman (and now Jett Bandy) and has appeared in just 32 games so far; in that time Susac has been able to manage only a .194/.250/.407 slash with five home runs in the hitter-friendly confines of Security Service Field. He has thrown out seven of the 17 runners that have tried to steal on him, but his framing numbers and all-around fielding metrics have taken a step back this year. Susac now appears at the very least to be behind Manny Pina, Stephen Vogt, and Bandy on the organizational catching depth chart, and with Jacob Nottingham coming on strong just one level behind, the age-27 catcher needs to start figuring things out before he gets lost in the shuffle once again.

IF Gilbert Lara, A Wisconsin (picked by Craig Goldstein): As the Brewers are reportedly linked to a few top International Prospects according to BaseballAmerica, one ought use the Gilbert Lara signing as a cautionary tale of sorts, but one should not use Lara’s struggles as an argument against investing in international talent for Milwaukee. The shortstop-to-third baseman has had his trip off shortstop delayed in 2017, which does raise a question about whether Lara’s defensive requirements at a position he is not suited for is impacting his performance thus far.

Goldstein on Lara: He’s only 19, but he hasn’t looked right for a couple years and I think it’s time to move on unless something changes in dramatic fashion. Oh, and he’s definitely not a shortstop.

RHP Cody Ponce, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Nicholas Zettel): Cody Ponce is one of my favorite arms in the Brewers system, so my placing him here is not really an indictment against his ceiling and floor that appeared on the 2017 Brewers Top Ten at Baseball Prospectus. Rather, it’s worth reflecting on my own biases that found Ponce to be placed in the “Potential Quick Riser” bucket I keep in my mind, as there was so much to instantly love about Ponce’s arsenal straight out of the gate. Ponce seemed like a guy who had stuff to reach the MLB as an almost certainly serviceable reliever, and I thought that floor would help him push his way to the MLB. As of this writing, Ponce is now 152.3 combined innings deep in Advanced A between 2016 and 2017, which leads one to question whether the righty’s injury during 2016 pushed back his development clock somewhat. Scouting the box score, Baseball Prospectus notes that Ponce’s groundball rate is falling as his strike out rate also declines in 2017, although it is worth noting that the Carolina League has generally been tough on Brewers prospects in 2017. Skipped over by Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta in terms of promotions to Class-AA Biloxi, one cannot let their previous expectations turn to disappointment on the age-23 hurler. Indeed, this is a great lesson that undue expectations are the foundation of hype, and hype does not develop prospects into serviceable MLB players.

Minor league stats are effectively meaningless, and especially meaningless without significant context for several reasons:

• First, the league environments themselves are not as readily or openly tracked as MLB, meaning that fans are not likely to have as much as an easy grasp on which parks play like Coors or which parks play like PetCo.

• A related factor impacting environment is that these professional baseball players are honing their skills, and often at different developmental stages. It’s easy to think this is more extreme in Class-A or Advanced A environments, where 19-to-20 year old Dominican Academy graduates might be playing with polished 22-to-23 year old college bats, and a set of recent draftees who might be anywhere from 19-to-21 years old, but this is easily just as extreme at Class-AA and AAA. In the advanced minors reside phenoms like Lewis Brinson, who has played each minor league level with little repetition, organizational depth like Victor Roache or Clint Coulter, 40-man Roster depth like Brent Suter and Michael Reed, and replacement players looking to either make their way back to the MLB or earn a living in the upper reaches of the minors.

• These different developmental stages obscure competitive environments prior to considering the fact that many of these minor league players may be working on specific assignments from the Front Office, meaning that the objective in the minor leagues is not as clear as in the MLB (ex., these players are not specifically in the minors to win, they are in the minors to develop).

• A player’s tools package, mechanics, and approach are most important, and it is unclear that minor league surface statistics easily translate those elements. A player who struggles through a minor league season while making a mechanical or approach adjustment may end up being a more desirable future asset than a player who shreds statistically but does not have the supporting tools, mechanics, and approach.

With this in mind, how do we read context into the minors? Baseball Prospectus offers several helpful statistics to this effect. One can use Opposing OPS to assess whether a phenom prospect is indeed phenomenal, or whether they are feasting on easy competition. Rickie Weeks was arguably a victim of this misunderstanding during his 2005 campaign, during which the 22-year old shredded the Pacific Coast League to the tune of .320 / .431 / .655. This looks all well and good until one determines that the .809 Opponent OPS Weeks faced was among the very weakest for Pacific Coast League regulars, and significantly easier than the .790 Opponent OPS faced by the median PCL player with 200 plate appearances. Brewers fans appear ready to commit a similar error of judgment with Lewis Brinson, who like Weeks is shredding the PCL (Brinson in his age-23 season) while facing some of the easiest competition in the league (.803 Opposing OPS versus .743 median for early season PCL regulars). Unlike 2005 Weeks, 2017 Brinson is also working in the easiest batting environment, which we can compare thanks to BPF, an index of park environment that Baseball Prospectus keeps for minor leagues.

Let me be clear: these statistics are not meant to diminish a player’s accomplishment. Lewis Brinson is hitting quite well, even with park factors and competition in mind; it’s just that these contextual statistics should help keep fans from expecting Brinson to immediately tear up the MLB when he reaches The Show.

With this background, here are the current batting environments faced by Brewers affiliates:

And now the pitching environments:

These tables should hopefully help to place individual performances in context. By using these tables, one can assess whether:

• A player is young or old, or of median age, for their respective league.
• A player is working in an environment that favors pitchers or batters.
• A player is facing easy competition, tough competition, or median competition.

Teammates to Watch:

• Brandon Woodruff versus Josh Hader. Thus far it’s easy to cite Brandon Woodruff’s 17/6/1 K/BB/HR line and 1.61 ERA as indicators of smashing success thus far, but the righty has faced opponents with a .702 OPS thus far. Granted, a .657 OPS-allowed still looks solid, and Woodruff is young in terms of age and developmental status in Class-AAA, so it’s not necessarily reason to be alarmed. Hader, on the other hand, appears to be struggling with command (15 K / 14 BB / 4 HR), but is facing opponents with a .169 Isolated Slugging Percentage. It will be worth looking for the scouting reports to emerge this spring, in order to assess any delivery or stuff issues, but Hader is receiving no benefits with his opponents faced.

• Biloxi Bats versus Carolina Arms. Oh, the prospects! So these guys are not necessarily teammates, but each of these units is facing difficult competition. Given that the Carolina pitching staff features several prospects excelling despite the difficulties (Corbin Burnes, Cody Ponce, and Freddy Peralta for example), midseason call-ups from the Carolina pitching staff could create an All-Team-Tough in Biloxi.

• Jake Gatewood versus Lucas Erceg. Lucas Erceg stormed the prospect scene after the 2016 draft, but few fans or analysts mentioned that the infielder faced relatively easy competition as a relatively polished college player in Class-A ball. Graduating to Carolina, the prospect is now facing a tough .644 Opposing OPS and is still knocking the ball around the ballpark (approximately 10 percent Extra Base Hits thus far). Jake Gatewood is coming into his own in Carolina, but along with some mechanical adjustments the youngster is also facing a .733 Opposing OPS. Granted, this is a case where notable mechanical adjustments are most important, as is the approach adjustment (21 K to 10 BB in 67 PA thus far). It is also worth noting that even though it seems like we’ve been following Gatewood forever, the corner prospect is still young for Advanced A ball.

• Wisconsin Pitching vs. Wisconsin Bats. Forget Colorado Springs, Appleton is also playing tough for pitchers in 2017, which is giving young arms like Trey Supak and Thomas Jankins a trial by fire. Both pitchers have acquitted themselves well thus far, despite the tough environment, which means that those K / BB / HR lines for both pitchers might be even more impressive than they seem at first glance. Meanwhile, it’s worth applying a large grain of salt to several of those blazing hot Wisconsin bats, as these prospects have faced a relatively easy path thus far. Yet, in the case of players like Demi Orimoloye and Mario Feliciano, it is worth noting that both are significantly younger than the Midwest League median age, so it is nice to see these professionals forge their paths at such young ages.

From MLB GameDay:

Making the rounds of Brewers Twitter this morning is a beautiful shot of Diaz’s 70-potential fastball playing out on the big stage, for the righty’s first MLB strikeout. For many of us, we rely faithfully on scouting reports and good grains of salt to understand the strengths and weaknesses of prospects without much video evidence (for those of us that do not subscribe to Minor League TV, that is). So, this morning served as a wonderful visual introduction to that sharp moving fastball.

That fastball…is better than the one I had in mind while reading 70-potential scouting reports. Of course, while reading those reports, I was also fixated on the potential 60 slider and 55 change up that accompanied the big pitch, designating Diaz as one of the Brewers’ very best right-handed prospects, at least in terms of potential three-pitch mix. The rub with Diaz was always the risk factor, which usually played much, much louder than the Overall Future Potential for the righty; it was always downgraded, that Diaz was quite a risky bet to reach the MLB as a starter. Entering 2015 as one of Milwaukee’s top prospects, Baseball Prospectus noted that a 2019 ETA might be expected for the righty:

“After tantalizing evaluators throughout the summer, Diaz stood out during fall instructs thanks in large part to a more consistent breaking ball, including a short slider/cutter variation that added another look and could provide a solid weapon for missing left-handed barrels if the changeup does not fully materialize. Because he gets such good extension on his offerings, the ball gets in on hitters quickly, allowing the pitch to play above its plus velocity grade. That has the duel benefit of helping the fastball to jump and making identification of the cutter more problematic. As with Medeiros, there’s so much distance between present profile and the ultimate skill set required to hold down a spot in a major-league rotation that the Brewers will likely take things slowly with Diaz in 2015, with a focus on continuing to build up arm strength and durability while refining the secondaries. A Helena assignment seems most likely, and would put him in line for a full-season debut in 2016 at the age of 21.”

In the middle of 2016, Grant Jones published a Baseball Prospectus eyewitness report that corroborated the risky story for Diaz while underscoring the lofty potential of the arsenal. Jones wrote, “Upside of good number three pitcher; risk factor makes power reliever very possible. Ability to throw all three for strikes, confident with all pitches, needs more reps with repeating delivery and will be a starter if he can find more consistency. High-upside arm, risk factor is very high but stuff is there. Has the makings for everything to come together soon.”

Diaz played 2016 at Class-A Wisconsin, nearly reaching 100 innings and posting a 3.14 Deserved Runs Average (DRA), a monstrous 91 strike out / 29 walk ratio, and an improved groundball ratio (from 38 percent at Class-R Arizona to 47 percent in full season ball). For all intents and purposes, this appeared to be a smashing success, although analysts must weigh Diaz’s weak competition against his extremely young age for his level. This was the type of season that could sell a risky starting pitching prospect, and unfortunately the Brewers could not take their time to decide on the merits of Diaz; having begun his professional career in 2012, he was ready for the 40-Man Roster, or risked exposure in the Rule 5 Draft. Usually, one would not blink twice at the thought of losing a low ball pitcher in the Rule 5 draft, but in fact this has happened (at least) twice over the last few seasons, including the Brewers’ own experiment with Wei-Chung Wang and the Padres’ selection of Luis Perdomo.

Rereading Diaz’s scouting reports, and viewing his stuff, it is worth asking whether reports had the risk profile backwards for Diaz. Perhaps the MLB relief floor was there, even in Class-A, what with a present-grade 60 fastball and 45 slider (how many current Brewers relievers can boast that combination of grades?). Traditionally, it is easy to simply scoff at the notion that Diaz would have been a potential relief prospect, because the traditional notion remains that you develop players as starting pitchers until they absolutely prove themselves to be relievers. Traditionally, it is easy to dismiss the notion of a Class-A player being anywhere near the MLB; that’s at least three levels and therefore three years away from the big stage, especially if a player’s profile is risky starting pitcher. The trouble is, if a player is not a risky starting pitcher but a potentially solid relief profile, that timetable stands on its head.

The problem with this line of reasoning, of course, is that fans are always ready to push players along as quickly as possible. When the Brewers signed Gilbert Lara, the question was whether Lara could be a type of breakout phenom that makes the MLB for his age-20 season, a la Miguel Cabrera. When the Brewers drafted Cody Ponce, looking at the righty’s frame and arsenal, it was interesting to question whether Ponce could become the next Michael Conforto, a relatively polished prospect that can leap from Class-A to the MLB during the same season (as Conforto did in 2015). These dreams are muted by reality, obviously. But they persist: fans still ask the same type of question about Brewers prospect Corey Ray: can’t you see Ray in Brewers blue in 2018?

Yet, MLB scouting, player development, and analytical teams must take the risk profiles and potential futures of each player quite seriously, and in this case the fact that the Brewers misjudged Diaz’s profile raises questions about how the organization should handle future low ball Rule 5 draft risks. Losing Miguel Diaz is not “nothing,” as there are few 70-potential fastballs lying around the minor leagues, even if those fastballs might be tied to a risky starting pitching profile. Indeed, on the OFP scale that historically grants Diaz $48.9 million in surplus value to the Brewers at his highest pure grade, it is so easy to imagine a future in which the Brewers develop Diaz as a starting pitcher and he never reaches the MLB ($0 surplus). Watering down Diaz’s grade with a host of 40-45-50-55-60 OFP futures gives a much more reasonable estimate of the righty’s surplus value in Milwaukee. But if one asks whether Diaz is a reliever all along, Class-A is much closer to the MLB, and Diaz certainly justifies a 40-man roster spot in that case. “Power reliever” is an essential role for a potentially contending club in 2019 or 2020, and unleashing Diaz as a reliever probably materializes his MLB career in a much easier (less risky) manner than as starting pitching.

So, here lies a logical, analytical player development problem for the Brewers: if they are risk averse with their 40-man roster spots, they must not ask, “what is this player’s ceiling?” but “what is this player’s floor?” When a floor could be as strong as that of Diaz, who was working with a 60 / 45 two pitch mix as early as midseason 2016, Milwaukee must reassess the value of that profile for their roster. Odds are the Brewers did not lose a risky starter that was very far from the MLB, but a relatively stable relief profile that was much closer to the MLB, and it is worth asking whether that profile is worth losing again in the future.

Related Reading:
Three Up / Three Down: Gatewood / Nottingham / Phillips
Three Up / Three Down: Mallen / Orf / Perrin

In order to understand pitching performance of Brewers prospects, I created a general matrix of difficulty for each league and class in which these prospects work from A to AAA. This chart is meant to be read alongside BaseballProspectus opponent difficulty statistics, as it shows the OPS range among regular starters in each league (and how each league compares within its own class). Once again, the Florida State league is extremely unfriendly to hitters, while the Pacific Coast League is extremely tough on pitchers; within both leagues, however, there is a wide range of talent one can face.

By looking at the range of competition in each league, one can gain a better understanding of the performance of each minor league pitcher. This chart should hopefully help to place statistics into context.

Three Up
Jordan Yamamoto, A Wisconsin (Nicholas Zettel): Jordan Yamamoto is one of three recent Milwaukee draftees from a Hawaii scouting pipeline, and the righty is quietly turning a corner in Wisconsin, while facing median competition for the league. Yamamoto was hit hard in R Helena last year, as fellow 2014 draftee Kodi Medeiros cruised to A Wisconsin, but the righty is adjusting during his first full season of professional ball. It’s hard to ignore the 85 K / 18 BB / 1 HR profile against 328 batters, and Yamamoto is also yielding groundballs at a 53 percent clip. During a scouting trip earlier this spring, James Fisher noted:

“The profile is still not prototypical but his glove side command has started to come around. His delivery has been cleaned up a bit, has become more on-line to the plate, and the delayed trunk rotation works for him. The stuff has taken a jump forward along with these improvements in his delivery. The fastball was up to 95 during my last look, and the breaking ball consistently flashed average to slightly above-average. The key for Yamamoto going forward will be the continued refinement of his command and the changeup, which lags behind at present.”

It’s difficult to project Yamamoto heading forward, but it’s impossible to ignore his role as yet another solidly intriguing and potentially valuable organizational arm. If that’s becoming a boring line on the Brewers system, it never gets old recognizing yet another potential pitching contributor. When one tires of this line and the common Mike Fiers citation, consider Jacob Barnes breaking out of the depth into the MLB, or the respective trade values of Tyler Wagner or Cy Sneed.

Cody Ponce, A+ Brevard County (James Fisher): Early in the 2016 season, a forearm injury was reported for Cody Ponce, which seemingly took some air out of the excitement of a fanbase ready to follow the system’s most hype-worthy prospects. Even having only been drafted in 2015, Ponce tore through R Helena and earned a quick promotion, giving some impression that the big righty might indeed fly through the system. Returning from that injury, James noted that Ponce “scuffled early,” but there is “no reason to worry.” James also called Ponce a quality #3 starter (or better), and the strength of the righty’s fastball and cutter combination typically drive these above average assessments.

The timing for this pick could not have been better, as Ponce delivered his signature professional start thus far. Facing Bradenton on the road, Ponce only needed 70 pitches to strike out 12 batters in six innings (including 5:2 groundball : flyball). Looking forward, one might lean on those groundballs as an area of improvement, as Ponce is still generally working as a flyball pitcher thus far in 2016 (although Ponce has also faced strong competition in Brevard County). As the righty refines his delivery and approach, it will be worth seeing if he can nail a power, strike out, and groundout profile.

Isan Diaz, A Wisconsin (Kyle Lesniewski): Two fun facts are worth sharing for Isan Diaz’s 2016 season:

• Among the 64 players with 200 or more plate appearances in the Midwest League, Diaz is one of 17 players that are in their age 20 (or younger) season. He is easily in the youngest 30 percent of Midwest League regulars.

• Diaz leads the entire league in home runs (12), and is tied for fifth with doubles (22).

This is especially fun because of the nearly obscene player comparisons that surfaced when the Diamondbacks traded the young infielder to Milwaukee. While there was some question about how Diaz’s defensive profile might round out, there appeared to be no question about the bat as Diaz’s prized tool. While some early scouting reports lauded Diaz for doubles power, the big power really turned on at the end of May. Beginning with a late May series at Clinton, Diaz is hitting .296 / .368 / .562 in 193 PA. Given Diaz’s age, scouting profile, competition, and development status (first full year of professional ball), it seems worth arguing that this is a case where the statistics are legitimately exciting. The previously unheralded prospect is pushing his way to the top of the Brewers system, and if he fails to rank in the Top Five for 2017, that says more about the strength of this rebuilding campaign than it does Diaz’s weaknesses.

Three Down
Jorge Lopez, AAA Colorado Springs (Kyle Lesniewski): The “knock” on Jorge Lopez has almost always been his command. The righty surged onto the scene in 2015 by repeating his delivery, polishing his secondary stuff, and generally mitigating some of those concerns about wildness. Unfortunately, Colorado Springs simply has not been kind to Lopez, as the youngster followed up his promising breakout with a 14 percent walk rate. Lopez, like the other Colorado Springs regulars, has also faced relatively easy competition. The silver lining is that although Lopez’s swinging strikes and overall strikes are down in 2016, the righty is improving his groundball profile. If he can stabilize the command once again, Lopez could reclaim his middle rotation potential with a groundball approach.

Damien Magnifico, AAA Colorado Springs (James Fisher): For a flamethrowing closer, Damien Magnifico has a difficult profile to project. PITCHf/x readings from the 2015 Arizona Fall League substantiated expectations that Magnifico dealt in the upper 90s, but the righty still does not pitch a huge strikeout game. In fact, Magnifico does not necessarily work for the swing-and-miss, instead producing a 64% groundball rate at Colorado Springs. With Jacob Barnes and Corey Knebel getting some bullpen chances this year, and a gang of waiver claims ahead of Magnifico to boot, one hopes that Magnifico would get a big league look prior to September call-ups to see how this profile plays on the big stage. Given the noted dissections of Jeremy Jeffress’s rather odd power-closer profile, one might hope Magnifico can serve in the same power groundball role. It’s just a matter of whether that profile will play “up” or “down” in high leverage situations.

Adrian Houser, AA Biloxi (Nicholas Zettel): Those dreaded words appeared as Adrian Houser recently went to the disabled list in Biloxi: forearm injury. Granted, the nature of the injury may end up fine, not unlike Cody Ponce’s early 2016 forearm scare, but the timing of the injury could not be worse. Placing run prevention aside, Houser worked through a tough stretch of four starts in April and May where the groundball:flyball rates were nearly even. The righty broke out on May 9, beginning a six game stretch that included fewer walks and a 69% groundball rate. It looked like Houser would be a silver lining sleeper and overcome his early season struggles, but his last two starts saw the groundballs regress prior to his injury. If you’re looking for good news, Houser has faced the toughest competition of any Shuckers starter, which could help to weigh the strength of his midseason improvements.

Of course, Melvin didn’t always struggle in this facet of management. The first five years of his tenure (2003-2007) saw the Brewers draft Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy, among others. Those players combined with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall — whom the team had selected in the pre-Melvin seasons — to form a strong nucleus that helped the club make playoff runs in 2008 and 2011.

After that, however, the prospect well dried up — such that, for five years running, the Brewers have placed in the bottom five of BP’s organizational rankings:

[Note: These rankings began in 2008.]

With the aforementioned core heading to the Major Leagues, Milwaukee sorely needed to replenish its system. Melvin responded with the opposite due to the club’s competitive window. In deals for CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum, he sent away Matt LaPorta, Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffess, and Brett Lawrie. Some of those players didn’t end up accomplishing much, but the prosperity of some of them — particularly Brantley and Cain, each of whom has played at a borderline-MVP level in the past couple years — have made many fans regret the trades retrospectively.

Inadequate drafting compounded the woes of those deals. Jack noted in his piece that the club’s picks from later years haven’t yet amounted to much. Over the past few years, teams such as the Rangers have managed to maintain a solid minor-league system despite swinging big trades, and they’ve done so by constantly restocking their affiliates through the draft and international free agency. Part of that is good scouting, too, while part of that is a willingness to spend money. Melvin’s Brewers partook in the former half of the equation while neglecting the latter half, though, and it has come back to haunt them.

With that said, Milwaukee has made recent strides. BP’s writeup of the farm system stated that it possessed “talent to makes several teams quite jealous” — a massive improvement from its standing over the past several seasons. After spending the first half of the decade in the minor-league cellar, the 2015 Brewers have taken the necessary steps to move back up to the top half.

Part of this, in fairness, happened before this year. In August, Julien Assouline analyzed the team’s drafts under Melvin, who had perhaps not received the credit he deserved. Some of Melvin’s strengths there stem from the early years, but even in the later part of his run with the Brewers, they fared moderately well. Derek Harvey commented that the club’s drafts from 2009 to 2014, under late scouting director Bruce Seid, provided them with numerous quality players that presently stock their system. Indeed, of the top-20 current Milwaukee prospects, eight — Jorge Lopez, Devin Williams, Monte Harrison, Tyrone Taylor, Jake Gatewood, Kodi Medeiros, Yadiel Rivera, and Michael Reed — came from drafts during that span, while Orlando Arcia and Gilbert Lara signed with the team as amateur free agents in that period.

Still, an improvement of this magnitude, and in this short a span, suggests something different in the past twelve months. Part of the difference stems from the 2015 draft, which has (to this point) yielded incredible rewards. Four of those top-20 prospects came to the team in June: Trent Clark, Cody Ponce, Demi Orimoloye, and Nathan Kirby. Clark stands out as the best of the bunch, but all four have intriguing upside and could continue to blossom further. New scouting director Ray Montgomery, as Harvey observed, seems to have taken off.

The team’s decision to finally rebuild has helped with that. July saw them deal away established starters Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, and Jonathan Broxton, as well as (relative) stars Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. Those trades — which, as J.P. Breen correctly posited, meant the team had recognized that its window has closed — brought back a great deal of prospects. Yhonathan Barrios, Zach Davies, Malik Collymore, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser now occupy various levels of the Milwaukee system; Phillips, Davies, Houser, and Hader ranked in the top 20, while Santana has already begun to contribute at The Show. Together with Marcos Diplan, an intriguing top-20 farmhand whom the team acquired in last January’s Yovani Gallardo swap, they amount to a formidable group.

Overall, David Stearns inherited a solid amount of prospects when he became the GM in August. Surveying the trove a couple weeks before Melvin stepped down, Derek Harvey concluded that the system had gone from the bottom to the upper half of the league — a prediction that, as stated previously, we’ve likely seen come true. Stearns didn’t stop there, though. In his four-odd months atop the organization, he’s made several trades to bolster the minor- and major-league depth, further improving the system as a whole.

The first two transactions came in mid-November. Stearns swapped Cy Sneed for the Astros’ Jonathan Villar, then followed that up by shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers in exchange for Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later (catcher Manny Pina). Seth Victor described Villar at the time as “a good acquisition for a team that needs middle infield depth and flexibility,” a player who won’t make a noticeable difference yet should still provide some value. Betancourt — who rounded out the top 20 — is, in Chris Crawford’s estimation, “a high-floor prospect with a fairly well-defined ceiling.” In other words, he could become a Villar-type player a few years down the road.

After BP published its top-20 list, Stearns has made a few more moves, evidently in an effort to muck up the rankings. First came the Adam Lind trade, which brought back three young pitchers: Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta. While I can certainly see the logic in Jack’s distaste for the deal — Lind gave us something to cheer for in this dreadful 2015 season, and those players always hurt to lose — I ultimately come down on the side of J.P., who expressed cautious optimism regarding it.

Not long after that, three more prospects came to Milwaukee. The day following Lind’s departure, the Red Sox sold Garin Cecchini to the Brewers for cash considerations. BP’s Bryan Grosnick called the deal “[t]he definition of ‘buying low,'” as a disastrous 2015 had caused Cecchini’s stock to plummet. Likewise, the players Milwaukee snagged in the Rule 5 draft — Colin Walsh from the Athletics and Zack Jones from the Twins — don’t carry elite pedigrees, or much upside, for that matter.

These deals nevertheless give the Brewers plenty of options for 2016 and beyond, as J.P. outlined a few weeks ago. (Plus, the quantity acquired from these transactions only increased thereafter, when the Brewers sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates, receiving Keon Broxton and Trey Supak in return.) Overall, the solid 2015 draft, along with Stearns’s willingness to trade anything not nailed down, has translated to a complete turnaround in Milwaukee’s minor-league system.

What does this mean for 2016? Well, as J.P. pointed out, the Brewers have more routes they can take at the Major League level; although few of those will likely lead to wins, the results should give the team some clarity for 2017. More immediately, it means the Triple-A Sky Sox will presumably play better in 2016. Michael Schwarz explained how that affiliate would progress with legitimate prospects filling its roster. The biggest takeaway here, though, is general optimism. Years and years of no future, at long last, appear to have come to an end. Now, more so than at any point in recent memory, there could be hope on the Milwaukee horizon.

RHP Josh Roenicke:  (L, 4-4) 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR — 5.00 ERA
RHP Rob Wooten:  1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 0 K — 5.21 ERA
1B Matt Clark:  2-for-3, BB — .279 AVG

RHP Hiram Burgos:  (W, 1-0) 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K — 1.64 ERA
RHP David Goforth:  (S, 2) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 2.70 ERA
3B Elian Herrera:  2-for-4, 2B, R, K — .396 AVG
CF Kyle Wren:  2-for-5, 2 SB (5), R, 2 K — .257 AVG

RHP Drew Gagnon:  6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR — 6.82 ERA
RHP Ariel Pena:  (L, 0-1) 0.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 4.66 ERA
2B Yadiel Rivera:  2-for-3, 2 RBI, BB — .287 AVG
CF Logan Schafer:  1-for-4, 2B, BB, 2 R, 2 K — .250 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers: (3-1), — GB

RHP Tyler Wagner:  (W, 6-2) 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 5 K — 2.44 ERA
LHP Mike Strong:  1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K — 2.83 ERA
SS Orlando Arcia:  2-for-5, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 2 R, K — .312 AVG
LF Josh Fellhauer:  1-for-3, RBI, BB, SB (2), R, K — .292 AVG

RHP Jorge Lopez:  (W, 6-2) 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 HR — 2.80 ERA
RHP Damien Magnifico:  (S, 8) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 1.78 ERA
1B Nick Ramirez:  1-for-4, HR (10), 2 RBI, R, K — .285 AVG
2B Nathan Orf:  1-for-3, 3B, RBI, BB, R — .272 AVG
RF Michael Reed:  1-for-4, 2B, RBI, 2 K — .295 AVG

LHP Hobbs Johnson:  (W, 5-4) 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K — 3.34 ERA
RHP Austin Ross:  1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 2.61 ERA
3B Nathan Orf:  2-for-3, 2B, HR (2), 4 RBI, BB, SB (5), 2 R — .277 AVG
SS Orlando Arcia:  2-for-5, 3B, RBI, 2 SB (8), 2 R — .313 AVG
C Adam Weisenburger:  2-for-4, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB, 2 R — .235 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (1-2), 1.5 GB

RHP Javier Salas:  5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R (4 ER), 3 BB, 2 K — 2.70 ERA
RHP Tyler Spurlin:  (W, 2-1) 2.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 2.25 ERA
RF Clint Coulter:  2-for-3, 2B, RBI, 2 BB, 2 R — .254 AVG
2B Chris McFarland:  1-for-3, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 K — .278 AVG

RHP Johnny Hellweg:  (L, 0-2) 2.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R (3 ER), 1 BB, 2 K — 9.00 ERA
RHP Tristan Archer:  3.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR — 4.46 ERA
2B Chris McFarland:  3-for-5, 2 RBI, R, K — .283 AVG
3B Taylor Brennan:  1-for-3, RBI, BB, 2 K — .250 AVG

RHP Jorge Ortega:  5.0 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR — 1.78 ERA
RHP Mark Williams:  (L, 0-3) 2.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 3 K — 1.50 ERA
RF Jose Pena:  2-for-4, 2B, RBI, R, K — .257 AVG
2B Chris McFarland:  3-for-5, RBI, SB (15), K — .289 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (2-2), 1.0 GB

LHP Zach Hirsch:  (L, 2-4) 4.0 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR — 3.15 ERA
RHP Josh Uhen:  1.2 IP, 5 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 3 K — 5.93 ERA
LF Mitch Meyer:  2-for-2, 2 BB — .255 AVG
CF Francisco Castillo:  1-for-4, SB (3) — .256 AVG

RHP Devin Williams:  6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K — 3.12 ERA
RHP Zach Cooper:  (W, 1-1) 2.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR — 3.68 ERA
CF Brandon Diaz:  3-for-3, HR (6), RBI, BB, 2 R — .220 AVG
3B Sthervin Matos:  1-for-4, HR (6), RBI, R — .201 AVG

RHP Cy Sneed:  6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K — 2.68 ERA
LHP Tyler Linehan:  (L, 1-2) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K — 6.75 ERA
2B Tucker Neuhaus:  2-for-3, HR (2), RBI, BB, R — .255 AVG
3B Sthervin Matos:  2-for-3, 2B, 2 BB, R — .208 AVG

Helena Brewers: (3-8), 4.5 GB

RHP Cody Ponce:  2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 0.00 ERA
RHP Bubba Blau:  (L, 0-3) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR — 27.00 ERA
RF Carlos Belonis:  2-for-4, 3B, RBI, 2 R, K — .300 AVG
3B Jose Cuas:  1-for-3, RBI, 2 BB, 2 R, K — .250 AVG
1B Steven Karkenny:  1-for-4, HR (2), BB, 2 R, K — .263 AVG

RHP J.B. Kole:  (L, 0-1) 3.0 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K — 4.09 ERA
2B Blake Allemand:  2-for-5, SB (3), R — .348 AVG
1B Steven Karkenny:  3-for-4, RBI, 2 SB (3), R — .310 AVG

RHP Jordan Yamamoto:  (L, 0-2) 4.2 IP, 8 H, 5 R (3 ER), 4 BB, 7 K — 8.56 ERA
CF Monte Harrison:  1-for-3, 3B, R, K — .154 AVG
RF Omar Cotto:  2-for-3, 2 SB (5), R, K — .313 AVG

AZL Brewers: (3-4), 0.5 GB

LHP Drake Owenby:  3.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 6.35 ERA
RHP David Lucroy:  (W, 1-1) 3.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 4.91 ERA
C Mitch Ghelfi:  2-for-3, 3B, 2 RBI, BB, SB (1), 2 R, K — .154 AVG
3B Jorge Quiterio:  1-for-3, 2 RBI, R, 2 K — .467 AVG

RHP Connor Baits:  (L, 0-1) 1.1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 0 K — 27.00 ERA
LHP Quintin Torres-Costa:  3.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K — 4.50 ERA
SS Gilbert Lara:  2-for-4, RBI, R, K — .429 AVG
RF Nicolas Pierre:  1-for-4, RBI — .269 AVG

DSL Brewers: (8-16), 11.0 GB

RHP Wuilder Rodriguez:  6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K — 1.42 ERA
RHP Starling Duval:  (L, 4-1) 2.0 IP, 3 H, 4 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 0 K — 4.26 ERA
2B Franly Mallen:  1-for-4, 2B, 2 K — .282 AVG
3B Julio Mendez:  0-for-1, RBI, 2 BB, SB (3) — .186 AVG

RHP Carlos Luna:  (L, 0-2) 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 3 K — 1.99 ERA
SS Ignacio Otano:  1-for-4, 2B, RBI, K — .341 AVG
3B Yerison Pena:  1-for-4, 2B, RBI — .342 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  RHP Cody Ponce, Helena

With the 55th-overall pick in the 2015 draft, the Brewers selected right-hander Cody Ponce. The organization had been connected to the big hurler in the week leading up to the draft, with some suggesting he was in the conversation for the 15th pick, so it ultimately was an unsurprising selection when he was available in the second round. Ponce can run his fastball up to 95-96 mph and shows flashes of three-or-four pitches, depending on the outing. I spoke to one non-Brewers scout after the draft, who raved about Ponce and said he was “all in” on the Cal Poly Pomona alum. After a quality pro debut with the Helena Brewers, it will be interesting to see how the righty responds to a jump in competition. He competed against lesser talent in Division II; however, he performed very well in the Cape Cod League, so perhaps that concern isn’t as warranted as it would otherwise seem on the surface.