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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; David Goforth</title>
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		<title>Pitching Week: Brewers Minor Leaguers</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/27/pitching-week-brewers-minor-leaguers/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/27/pitching-week-brewers-minor-leaguers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jan 2017 12:39:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Lesniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Wilkerson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Woodruff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brent Suter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Damien Magnifico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Goforth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Hader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Kohlscheen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taylor Jungmann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tristan Archer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wei-Chung Wang]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7849</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We have been celebrating &#8220;Pitching Week&#8221; all week long at Baseball Prospectus, including the introduction of a couple new statistics, Called Strike Probability (CSProb) and Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA), to quantify control and command. Earlier this week for Brew Crew Ball, I took a look at how the current big league pitchers in Milwaukee [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We have been celebrating &#8220;Pitching Week&#8221; all week long at Baseball Prospectus, including the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31022" target="_blank">introduction of a couple new statistics</a>, Called Strike Probability (CSProb) and Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA), to quantify control and command. Earlier this week for Brew Crew Ball, I took a look at how the current big league pitchers in Milwaukee <a href="http://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/1/24/14365166/quantifying-control-and-command-with-the-milwaukee-brewers" target="_blank">graded out using these new statistics</a>. CSAA information is also available for pitchers at the AAA and AA levels, which can help give some insight into the level of command displayed by minor leaguers. Let&#8217;s see how some of the more notable arms in Milwaukee&#8217;s farm system fared:</p>
<table dir="ltr" style="height: 874px" border="1" width="796" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<colgroup>
<col width="100" />
<col width="100" />
<col width="100" />
<col width="100" /></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Player</td>
<td>Innings Pitched</td>
<td>DRA</td>
<td>CSAA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tristian Archer</td>
<td>81.7</td>
<td>1.39</td>
<td>4.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brent Suter</td>
<td>110.7</td>
<td>2.83</td>
<td>4.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aaron Wilkerson</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>1.97</td>
<td>4.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brandon Woodruff (AA)</td>
<td>113.7</td>
<td>1.93</td>
<td>3.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Hader (AA)</td>
<td>57</td>
<td>1.47</td>
<td>2.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Luis Ortiz</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>4.06</td>
<td>1.77%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Taylor Jungmann (AA)</td>
<td>75.3</td>
<td>2.95</td>
<td>-0.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jorge Lopez (AA)</td>
<td>45.3</td>
<td>2.83</td>
<td>-0.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Wei-chung Wang (AA)</td>
<td>107.3</td>
<td>3.58</td>
<td>-1.21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stephen Kohlscheen</td>
<td>49.7</td>
<td>2.26</td>
<td>-1.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Hader (AAA)</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>2.78</td>
<td>-1.59%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Wei-chung Wang (AAA)</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>4.67</td>
<td>-1.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jorge Lopez (AAA)</td>
<td>79.3</td>
<td>6.65</td>
<td>-3.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Taylor Jungmann (AAA)</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>19.38</td>
<td>-5.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>David Goforth</td>
<td>51.3</td>
<td>11.01</td>
<td>-6.42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Damien Magnifico</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>6.13</td>
<td>-7.23%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The league leader in the MLB for CSAA was Zach Davies, with a 3.51 percent mark. As one can glean from the chart, several minor leaguers in Milwaukee&#8217;s system alone eclipsed that total last year. That likely has something to do with the quality of umpiring found at the minor league level versus in the big leagues, so the numbers should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt.</p>
<p>According to the numbers, several of the hurlers at Colorado Springs had difficulty commanding their pitches. Hard-throwing arms like Damien Magnifico and David Goforth have been in The Show before but failed to secure a role in spite of their plus fastballs. In both cases, the lack of a swing-and-miss pitch as well as poor command have held the two pitchers back from becoming big league contributors. Taylor Jungmann and Jorge Lopez were both demoted from Colorado Springs down to Biloxi after struggling mightily to keep hitters from reaching base and runs off the board, and both unsurprisingly graded out well-below average in CSAA while in AAA.</p>
<p>On the flip-side, both Brent Suter and Aaron Wilkerson enjoyed excellent seasons at the AAA level (though Wilkerson didn&#8217;t arrive in Colorado Springs until coming over in an early July trade with the Red Sox). Neither arm possesses outstanding &#8220;stuff&#8221;, especially the left-handed Suter, whose fastball tops out around 85 MPH. But both were able to post dominant Deserved Run Averages in a hitter-friendly ballpark at the highest level of the minors thanks in large part to their excellent command.</p>
<p>In the more pitcher-friendly environs of AA Biloxi, we find a bit more success for Milwaukee&#8217;s farmhands. Tristian Archer quietly put together an superlative performance for the Shuckers this past season on the strength of his excellent command, including an 82:9 K/BB ratio in 81.7 innings. Josh Hader also displayed above-average command during his dominant 57.0 inning run through the Southern League, though he backed up a bit upon reaching Colorado Springs while issuing 4.7 free passes per nine innings. Jorge Lopez and Taylor Jungmann both improved upon their dreadful CSAA numbers from Colorado Springs but were still a bit below-average command wise. Control of the strike zone has always been a question for those two and figures to be an issue that both will have to fight through if they want to see big league success. I was a bit suprised by Wei-Chung Wang&#8217;s numbers, as he only issued only a combined 2.4 BB/9 innings during his time at AA and AAA. He may have displayed decent control by keeping runners from reaching base via the walk, but his command graded out as below-average at both of his stops in 2016.</p>
<p>No pitcher in Milwaukee&#8217;s system improved their stock this year more than Brandon Woodruff. The former 11th-round pick had a middling collegiate career at Mississippi State and posted DRAs of 4.73 and 5.74 in the two years preceding 2016. His stuff ticked up this past season, including improved fastball velocity that was often 95+ MPH and a slider now graded as plus by some outlets. That, along with vastly improved command, helped Woodruff lead the minor leagues with 173 strikeouts in 158.0 combined innings between A+ and AA while allowing only 2.3 batters per nine innings to reach via base on balls. Woodruff posted sub-2.00 DRAs at both of the levels he pitched at this year on his way to winning the organization&#8217;s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He&#8217;s now considered a top-10 organization prospect by many of the ranking outlets (though he didn&#8217;t crack <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30902" target="_blank">BP&#8217;s Brewers top 10</a>) and should have a good chance to make an impact on the major league team in 2017.</p>
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		<title>David Goforth: Another Bullpen Wild Card</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/05/david-goforth-another-bullpen-wild-card/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/05/david-goforth-another-bullpen-wild-card/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Jan 2016 16:30:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ryan Romano]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Goforth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Player Analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3106</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, BP Milwaukee looked at some of the bigger storylines from the 2015 Brewers campaign. Julien Assouline covered, in my opinion, the most notable development of all: the incredible success of the bullpen. Even with Francisco Rodriguez now having departed, the team still has a ton of interesting relief pitchers for 2016. Beyond the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last week, <em>BP Milwaukee</em> looked at some of <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/tag/top-storylines/" target="_blank">the bigger storylines</a> from the 2015 Brewers campaign. <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/29/top-brewers-storylines-of-2015-brewers-bullpen-and-bullpen-evaluation/" target="_blank">Julien Assouline covered</a>, in my opinion, the most notable development of all: the incredible success of the bullpen. Even with <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/19/k-rod-traded-to-detroit-stearns-has-no-favorites/" target="_blank">Francisco Rodriguez now having departed</a>, the team still has a ton of interesting relief pitchers for 2016. Beyond the obvious candidates — Michael Blazek, Will Smith, and Jeremy Jeffress all proved their mettle last season — borderline players such as Tyler Thornburg, Corey Knebel, and David Goforth will likely earn higher-leverage chances of their own.</p>
<p>Goforth, to me, stands out because he seems to have flown completely under everyone&#8217;s radar. Sure, a 4.01 ERA and 5.76 DRA won&#8217;t turn many heads &#8212; and rightly so &#8212; but a 101 cFIP suggests he has potential to be a league-average reliever. And looking at his repertoire only fosters that optimism, because, man, does this kid have stuff:</p>
<p><a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2016/01/Screen-Shot-2016-01-05-at-10.18.48-AM-e1452010924994.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3124" src="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2016/01/Screen-Shot-2016-01-05-at-10.18.48-AM-e1452010924994.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016-01-05 at 10.18.48 AM" width="701" height="269" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>A total of 197 relievers threw at least 100 sliders in 2015; in that group, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=RP&amp;month=&amp;year=2015&amp;pitch=SL&amp;ds=velo&amp;lim=100" target="_blank">Goforth&#8217;s average velocity placed fourth</a>. With a 71.4 percent strike rate and 19.3 percent whiff rate, it certainly met expectations. His four-seamer and sinker had a lot of bite as well — <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=RP&amp;month=&amp;year=2015&amp;pitch=FA&amp;ds=velo&amp;lim=100" target="_blank">the former came in at 107th</a> out of 287 qualifiers in velocity, while <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=RP&amp;month=&amp;year=2015&amp;pitch=SI&amp;ds=velo&amp;lim=50" target="_blank">the latter finished 26th</a> among 161 of its peers. Goforth&#8217;s four-seamers resulted in strikes 62.2 percent of the time and swinging strikes 13.4 percent of the time, while his sinkers did the same in a respective 60.9 and 6.5 percent of their appearances. Neither could touch the slider, but both seemed to hold their own.</p>
<p>So with that kind of heat, why does Goforth have an unclear future? First and foremost, the fastball didn&#8217;t really do that well, because the 27-year-old couldn&#8217;t command it very well:</p>
<p><a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2016/01/plot_profile-81.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-3110 size-full" src="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2016/01/plot_profile-81.png" alt="GoforthFF" width="600" height="600" /></a></p>
<p>Unlike his sinker and slider, which <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=592341&amp;time=month&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=count&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=01/01/2015&amp;endDate=01/01/2016&amp;gFilt=regular&amp;pFilt=SI" target="_blank">he consistently placed</a> <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=592341&amp;time=month&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=count&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=01/01/2015&amp;endDate=01/01/2016&amp;gFilt=regular&amp;pFilt=SL" target="_blank">down in the zone</a>, Goforth was remarkably irregular with his four-seamer. Batters crushed it when they made contact — to the tune of a .308 ISO, .625 BABIP, and .419 TAv — which negated the sizable sum of whiffs. That sort of performance from his primary pitch didn&#8217;t help Goforth&#8217;s case during the season, nor does it make his future any brighter now.</p>
<p>Plus, Goforth appeared to suffer from <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/23/why-didnt-wily-peralta-break-out-in-2015/" target="_blank">the same ailment as Wily Peralta</a> — a dearth of distinct movement:</p>
<p><a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2016/01/Brooksbaseball-Chart-52.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-3112" src="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2016/01/Brooksbaseball-Chart-52-300x250.jpeg" alt="GoforthMove" width="700" height="583" /></a></p>
<p>The slider may have flown past people, but it didn&#8217;t dart away from their bats. That may have had something to do with the shortcomings of Goforth&#8217;s hard offerings, which began to blend together with their breaking-ball counterpart. &#8220;Flat&#8221; fastballs, i.e. ones that don&#8217;t move very much, will often lead to hard contact, no matter their velocity. For now, this fate looks to have befallen Goforth.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s also the matter of platoon splits; as a pitcher who relies so heavily on sinkers and sliders, Goforth will likely falter against batters from the other side. We certainly saw this in some respects last season:</p>
<table class="sortable" border="1" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Handedness</th>
<th align="center">BF</th>
<th align="center">K%</th>
<th align="center">BB%</th>
<th align="center">HR%</th>
<th align="center">BABIP</th>
<th align="center">wOBA</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">L</td>
<td align="center">44</td>
<td align="center">13.6%</td>
<td align="center">9.1%</td>
<td align="center">2.3%</td>
<td align="center">.394</td>
<td align="center">.363</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">R</td>
<td align="center">67</td>
<td align="center">26.9%</td>
<td align="center">6.0%</td>
<td align="center">4.5%</td>
<td align="center">.357</td>
<td align="center">.364</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Only the gap in home runs made him an even pitcher (and not a very good one at that). If the long balls even out, the absence of strikeouts and presence of walks could expose Goforth against southpaws.</p>
<p>And, of course, we should also acknowledge the yawning gap between what Goforth achieved in The Show and his work on the farm. Over his minor-league career, Goforth has struck out 17.0 percent of opponents and walked 9.3 percent. The fact that those improved to 21.3 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively, at the Major League level doesn&#8217;t smell right. Goforth threw strikes and deceived hitters as a Brewer, but his resume makes it unlikely that he&#8217;ll sustain that.</p>
<p>Still, there&#8217;s enough here to warrant a few more chances. (After all, not many people can touch 90 with a secondary pitch.) Rebuilding offers players such as Goforth a golden opportunity to prove themselves — and to fight through adversity if they struggle. Maybe, without <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-david-goforth-wearing-out-path-between-class-aaa-and-majors-b99560710z1-322470371.html" target="_blank">constant shifting between the minors and the majors</a>, he&#8217;ll refine his fastball command, put some more movement on his pitches, and tinker with his approach versus lefties. In a Brewers bullpen that doesn&#8217;t lack options, Goforth will receive some time to possibly shine.</p>
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