Happy Friday, folks. We all made it. Welcome back to Rolling Out the Barrel, where we promise to never ask you if God has called you for a chat recently. We’re a week removed from the trade deadline, and now that we’ve had some time to sort out how the organization looks after their biggest overhaul in recent memory, we’ve got a myriad of Brewers news and notes from around the internet. Let’s get to this week’s stories:
Brew Crew Ball || This is still a Compete Rebuild
Our own D.J. Harvey put together his thoughts on Milwaukee’s current “Compete Rebuild” plan, as he calls it. Here’s a salient point from his commentary for fans of another local sports franchise:
“It’s not the rebuild you want, but the Brewers stand to get a very high draft pick this year. Top 10 feels assured and they still have an outside chance at getting the Number 1 pick in next year’s draft. That’s more of an accident than part of the plan though. I suspect next year it’s still not going to be part of the plan.”
Like the Bucks in 2013-14, the Brewers had absolutely no intention of tanking in 2015; instead, a combination of injuries and poor performances from key personnel formed a perfect storm of awfulness that has led to them (most likely) securing a top-5 pick. Just two years later the Bucks, a perennial also-ran for decades, are one of the NBA’s most exciting young teams, and they only had to suck on accident for one year in the league that invented tanking for draft picks. So, those clamoring for the Burn it to the Ground rebuild may want to pump the breaks. The making of a contender in 2017 are there if things break perfectly. Here’s another important point for fans on #TeamTank from Harvey, explaining the benefits of the Compete Rebuild:
“You don’t put your eggs in one basket. There is a lot of risk with prospects. Even the best ones can fail. If you invest several years focusing mainly on the farm system and it fails to produce that top level talent you’re dreaming on then you’ve just spent years losing for nothing and now you’re going to continue losing for years.”
While it’s certainly fun for fans to see their team rise up the farm system rankings and have their top prospects dot the Top-100 lists, analysts such as Keith Law can’t hang banners, and even the highest rated guys don’t always pan out. Has anyone heard from Brandon Wood or Danny Hultzen recently? Meanwhile, two of the top five offensive leaders in fWAR this year – Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Donaldson – never appeared on any Top 100 list. Having a stacked farm system is vitally important for a small-market club — and Milwaukee’s is certainly trending up — but if it’s going to cost four straight 90-100 loss seasons like Houston just endured, no thank you.
FanGraphs || Jungmann, There’s No Need to Feel Down
Paul Sporer brings an 80-grade title to this nice piece examining some of the peripheral numbers behind Taylor Jungmann’s blazing-hot start to his major-league career. Entering the season with a depressed outlook that was backed by Jungmann’s horrid numbers at Triple-A Colorado Springs (obviously a nightmare for pitchers), the Brewers rookie has dominated all comers through his first 11 starts. While he’s still firmly planted in the Small Sample Size realm and there’s some inevitable regression to the mean to come, Sporer sees enough improvement in Jungmann to buy into his numbers as legitimate.
Sports Illustrated || Reyes, Shields, Utley lead top trade candidates for August waiver deadline
SI’s Cliff Corcoran offers a handful of potential August trade candidates that could have an impact on the pennant races as contenders gear up for the stretch run. Milwaukee’s representative on his list is closer Francisco Rodriguez. The Brewers have very little reason to hold on to their All-Star closer, but his trade value is dented by two things: numerous allegations of domestic violence that have been leveled against him, and the fact that Doug Melvin bafflingly offered him a two-year contract last offseason (the fourth-straight year that Milwaukee signed aging reliever). Thus, K-Rod is owed roughly $9.5 million over the next two seasons.
Grantland || Seven Days in Flushing: Reliving One of the Craziest Weeks in New York Mets History
Over at the ever-excellent Grantland, Jonah Keri shares an engaging account of the thrill ride the Mets and their fans rode in the week leading up to the trade deadline. The top of the roller coaster was the failed trade of ex-Brewer Carlos Gomez, the emotional on-field display from Wilmer Flores, and the social media fallout that followed. The Mets managed to salvage the deadline by acquiring Yoenis Cespedes, and the Mets rounded out their strange week with a storybook walk-off by Flores and a sweep of the Nationals to find themselves in first place in August.
MLB.com || Brewers’ Deadline haul impressing in the Minors
Brewers.com beat writer Adam McCalvy brings us a round-up of the debuts of the three main pitching prospects Milwaukee received in their trades with Houston and Baltimore last week. Each impressed, though none shined brighter than Josh Hader, who allowed a hit and a walk while striking out nine in a five-inning debut for Double-A Biloxi. With Hader, Adrian Houser and outfielder Brett Phillips joining an already-star studded Shuckers squad that has clinched a spot in the Southern League playoffs, all eyes are on the Brewers’ Double-A affiliate.
FanGraphs || Minor League Trading Arsenals: Post-Deadline Aftermath
Tony Blengino takes an in-depth look at the moves each major player made at the trade deadline last week, and how it affected the major-league squad as well as organizational depth. Paired up with Philadelphia, the Brewers show up as a franchise with a dismal present but an improving future. Belngino lauds the Brewers for adding pitching depth to their system and also notes that the Brewers’ 2015 draft class is off to a strong start. Something else that may interest Brewers fans: the Cardinals are mentioned as a team whose window is closing. While such talk is likely to spur another ten year run of #CardinalsDevilMagic, it’s certainly nice to think about.