Just a month or two ago, the idea of the Milwaukee Brewers as legitimate free-agency buyers seemed outright ludicrous. The team’s eyes were set firmly toward the future, and the crop of players hitting the free agency market trended towards “older” and “really expensive.” As the rival Chicago Cubs put in their bid to buy the NL Central for the foreseeable future, the Brewers — to their credit — set to work rebuilding their organization around a solid foundation of young talent.
But now, as we flip the calendar over to 2016, the landscape is shifting. Adam Lind is gone, as are Francisco Rodriguez and (for an inexplicably heavy return) Jason Rogers. With Lind and Rodriguez’s salaries off the books, the Brewers’ player payroll for 2016 currently sits just north of $40 million, third-lowest in the league.
Meanwhile, dozens of players are still seeking an employer for the 2016 season — and the artificial boundary line of January 1st is going to widen the parameters of their search. The smart ones are regrouping, realizing that a full month has passed with nobody meeting their demands, perhaps retooling said demands. Less money will work; after all, it’s better than no money. Because of that, fewer years are A-OK, too; nobody wants to be locked into a contract paying below their perceived value for a long time. And if the right offer comes from a cold-weather team with high income taxes and no hope of playoff baseball, eh. We’re coming up fast on “beggars can’t be choosers” time — which is where the Brewers’ new front office can shine.
Already, the team has been linked with a free-agent starter who is very familiar with the Central Division in the National League.
Brewers Reportedly Interested in RHP Mat Latos https://t.co/t8ilylSfqI pic.twitter.com/YPNl2V4EqW
— Brew Crew Ball (@BrewCrewBall) December 23, 2015
Just two years ago, imagining Mat Latos as a reclamation project was downright absurd. Latos had proven to be one of the most consistently excellent pitchers in all of baseball. His resume at 26 years old was sterling: four consecutive seasons with three or more WAR, a WHIP below 1.25, and at least eight strikeouts per nine innings. In the middle of that stretch, a trade sent him from San Diego and Petco Park — one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly stadiums — to the unforgiving Great American Ballpark of Cincinatti. Unfazed, Latos continued pitching at a high level and quickly established himself as “the nominal ace of the Reds’ pitching staff,” as his Player Comment identified in the 2014 BP Annual.
The 2014 season was less than kind to Latos, however. He missed time due to injury at several points and even when he was on the mound, his strikeout numbers took a dive as his fastball slowed by two miles per hour. His ERA and WHIP still looked great, but there were signs of trouble if you looked under the surface. Those signs were convincing enough for the Reds that they traded him to Miami last offseason in exchange for Anthony DeSclafani and Chad Wallach.
In 2015, those subsurface troubles turned into a veritable hurricane. Still throwing slowly, Latos was up and down in his starts with the Miami Marlins. Then, after being acquired by the Dodgers, he was just down. In five starts and one relief appearance, Latos posted an ERA of 6.66. Less than two months after trading for him, the Dodgers released Latos … during the last week of September.
Because of this, the right-hander has approached free agency with a strategy all his own. Rather than accepting a lower pay rate well into his 30s, Latos is seeking out a one-year contract. This way, he can build up his value with an effective campaign and still get well-paid before his 30th birthday.
For the Brewers, it’s a perfect fit. While Milwaukee surely wasn’t expecting to make a free-agency splash, the short-term nature of Latos’ desired arrangement fits with the team’s plans. The Brewers’ current payroll is less than half the 2015 mark, and while that isn’t money that has to be spent, it means that Mark Attanasio has the budgetary wiggle room to take a one-year flier on a talented pitcher.
The big question: What might that year look like? With Mat Latos, your guess is as good as mine. Despite his onetime reputation as a consistent force on the mound, Latos’ personality is anything but consistent. Some players control their emotions, others are controlled by them. Latos is controlled by them. Because of this, the range of possibilities is vast and all-encompassing. I took a look at a few of them.
The Good Scenario
Latos’ velocity leakage in 2014 was caused by a cocktail of injuries, and his 2015 performance makes it appear likely that this is the new normal. But Latos is just 28 years old. A rebound of sorts isn’t completely out of the cards. And to venture even deeper into the realm of speculation, Latos is an emotional player and a relentless competitor. Maybe he saw himself as a Cincinnati Red, and the trades to Miami and then Los Angeles wrecked his psyche. Maybe he was throwing slow because he was in his own head — and since he’s down to a one-year deal, he’s got to get past that to save his career.
The Brewers sign Latos, and he shows up to Spring Training on a mission. Surrounded by youth, promise, positivity, and no pressure to win, Latos works his fastball’s velocity back up to 93 mph — shy of what it used to be, but capable of overpowering hitters once again. With such a young, inexperienced group of players around him, the grizzled veteran immediately becomes one of the de facto team leaders. Nobody is surprised when he gets the ball on Opening Day, but they are when he tosses a three-hit shutout.
Back in the familiar National League Central, Latos reminds the league why he was once considered an ace. Miller Park is a notorious hitters’ park, but so was the GABP and Latos was at home there. He’s not an extreme flyball pitcher, and with his velocity back up to normal, he’s got the power to keep hitters on the defensive. It’s an up-and-down 2016 season for the Brewers, but Latos is one of the bright spots.
He only makes 15-20 starts for the team, but it’s enough to intrigue the trade market, since he looks like a difference-maker again. Come July, the Brewers are able to trade him to a contending team for a teenager who looks poised to be a top-10 prospect in a few seasons.
The Bad Scenario
Latos’ velocity leakage in 2014 was caused by a cocktail of injuries, and he was still hurt in 2015. Like, hurt hurt. Like, “that platelet-rich plasma injection you got after the 2014 season in your elbow was the writing on the wall” hurt.
These days, the Tommy John Monster has no mercy. He takes them all — old, young, cautious, reckless. But before he takes them, he takes their fastball’s power. The past two years, everyone knew something was off. However, when Latos is struggling to top 90 on the radar gun in Spring Training, everybody is legitimately worried.
Still, the veteran starter bravely soldiers on. He starts on Opening Day, largely by default, and follows up Kyle Lohse by getting shelled just like 2014. All of Latos’ starts are short, painful affairs. While the team wasn’t supposed to compete, Latos’ performance is actively stunting the development of other pitchers. It’s not even May and the Brewers are sidelining Latos, sending him off for a specialist and an MRI. The MRI comes back, and Latos has the dreaded torn UCL. For the record books, his ERA as a Brewer is worse than it was as a Marlin.
The Ugly Scenario
The Brewers sign Latos, but neglect to trade or release Matt Garza.
Spring Training rolls around. Latos and Garza are both emotionally volatile, and both trying to work their respective ways back from nightmarishly bad 2015’s. As the logic goes: you can get away with one head case on your team, just don’t give him somebody else crazy with whom to hang out. Latos needs a positive environment to get his career back on track. With Garza griping just an arm’s length away, that positive environment wouldn’t exist in Spring or beyond.
Latos starts for the team on Opening Day, and the umpires are unforgiving with their strike zone. He can’t catch a break, and with each call the frustration shows more and more on his face. Finally, he cracks, and blows up at the umpire, earning himself an ejection. The next day, Garza struggles with his command, mumbling and chirping the entire time.
An object in motion tends to stay in motion. And especially with players like Latos and Garza, when things go bad they keep going until they hit rock bottom. The 2016 Brewers’ starting rotation starts to look eerily like the 2015 iteration, with Latos playing the role of Kyle Lohse. The days he threw mid-90s are firmly behind him, and even his one-year contract looks like the biggest payday Latos can ever hope for.
Fed up with giving 40 percent of the team’s starts to expensive older pitchers who aren’t delivering results, David Stearns blows the whole thing up in July. Both players are shopped around aggressively and, ultimately, released.
Conclusion
The truth is, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Mat Latos in this phase of his career. But the promise of a 28-year-old pitcher on a one-year contract is too good a chance for a team in Milwaukee’s position to pass up. Hell, if things go well, maybe we trade Latos for a prospect — then bring him back, K-Rod style.
The risks associated with Latos are very real, especially the velocity drop. Two seasons in, you’d be crazy not to be skeptical that things are permanently slowed down. But older pitchers have recovered from more dramatic changes in velocity and become effective again. Latos has shown that he owns the skill of a 3-to-4 win pitcher. It’s worth the gamble for the Brewers to see if he can recreate that.
I would love to see an article like this, but looking at acquiring Doug Fister. The Latos head case aspect scares me, and I think Fister would make a strong trade deadline flip candidate.