Chris Carter’s Home Field Advantage

Chris Carter hammered his 11th home run in Milwaukee’s 3-2 win over the Padres on Sunday, a mammoth blast off the right side of the center field scoreboard. Hit Tracker Online estimated its true distance at a cool 443 feet and its speed at 107.6 MPH off the bat, his longest home run of the season to date and already the ninth home run Carter has hit over 400 feet in 2016.

Almost all of Carter’s damage this year has come at Miller Park. Nine of his 11 home runs have come at home, and he now owns a .289/.329/.763 batting line at Miller Park compared to a meek .204/.308/.352 on the road. There was good reason to believe Carter, a one-dimensional slugger if ever there was one, could thrive as a Brewer given the cozy dimensions in Milwaukee. But not quite like this – not only has Carter’s power display come almost entirely in Milwaukee, but five of the nine home runs he has hit at Miller Park have gone to the opposite field.

Carter’s raw power is about as good as anybody’s in baseball. With it, he has produced three professional seasons with at least 30 homers, twice in the minors (2008 at High-A, 2010 at Triple-A) and in 2014 when he hit 37 dingers for the Astros. In his short time in Milwaukee, Brewers fans have seen him take swings that look like they should produce a line drive double into the gap and muscling them over the fence. My favorite example so far is this frozen rope from Milwaukee’s 10-5 win over the Twins back on April 20th.

My impression of Carter before he came to Milwaukee was that of a dead pull slugger, somebody who feasted on the Crawford Boxes in the short left field in Houston and didn’t really use the opposite field. He owns just a .732 OPS to the opposite field for his career compared to 1.042 to center and 1.296 to the pull side, and 74 of his 120 home runs have come to left field.

But now, it looks like much of that conception of Carter was a product of the differences between Minute Maid Park and Miller Park. Carter has hit six home runs at Miller Park this year with a horizontal launch angle between 78 degrees and 92 degrees, where 90 degrees is straight to center field. At Minute Maid Park, there has been just one home run hit in that range, this Colby Rasmus home run from April 24th off Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel.

Houston has one of the deepest right-center power alleys in the league and Milwaukee has one of the shallowest. The park overlays at Hit Tracker Online drive the point home. First observe Carter’s home run chart from this year:

And now, the Miller Park fences overlaid onto Minute Maid Park:

Even with Carter’s power this year, his flaws as a hitter have been apparent. His 29 percent strikeout rate and a .275 BABIP that sits right in line with his career average have combined to limit him to a .254 batting average. But if Carter can keep launching home runs over the right field fence with ease, it’s not going to matter if he keeps striking out like this. Carter’s .592 slugging percentage makes him a viable starting first baseman even with a mediocre .320 on-base percentage.

Carter’s raw power has always been special, and now he’s finally playing in a ballpark suited to his skills. With his strength, Miller Park’s walls have no chance at holding him. Carter nearly cracked 40 home runs in Houston, where his opposite field power was neutralized by a deep power alley. It will be fun to see the kinds of numbers he can put up while his career in Milwaukee lasts.