MLB: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Game 39 Recap: Brewers 4, Cubs 2

Tl;dr: Chase Anderson took a no-hitter into the eighth inning before losing his shutout and complete game in the ninth, but the Brewers hung on to win 4-2.

Top Play (WPA): Jonathan Lucroy 4th inning solo home run which made the game 1-0 Brewers (.133)

Worst Play (WPA): Dexter Fowler strike out to end the 6th inning with a runner on second base, preserving the 1-0 Brewer lead (-.053)

In honor of an extraordinary game from Chase Anderson, I thought I’d leave the normal construct of these game recaps and focus exclusively on his pitching. Anderson carried a perfect game for 5.1 innings, a no-hitter for 7 innings, and missed the complete game shutout by a strike. In his 8.2 innings, Anderson struck out 6, walked one, and allowed three hits, two of which were home runs in the ninth inning that chased him from the game. For those curious (who have somehow never heard Bill Schroeder talk about it), the only Brewers no hitter was thrown by Juan Nieves in 1987.

First, let’s take a look at Anderson’s outcomes plot.

chase

 

The important dots there are the two reds, which signify the Kris Bryant and Jason Heyward home runs, as well as orange dot which was Ben Zobrist’s double which broke up the no-hitter. Aside from the home run on that low-middle red dot, neither hit was off a terrible pitch. The Bryant home run was up and in, Bryant is just too good and Anderson just didn’t have enough velocity to get it by him, and the Zobrist double was golfed to center. That double may have been catchable, but considering Kirk Nieuwenhuis robbed a home run in the first inning, I think we can call that even.

MLBAM Pitch Statistics

Pitch Type Velo (Max) H-Break V-Break Count Strikes / % Swings / % Whiffs / % BIP (No Out) SNIPs / % LWTS
FT (Two-seam Fastball) 91.2 (92.5) -7.84 7.76 12 8 / 66.7% 8 / 66.7% 2 / 16.7% 5 (0) 3 / 42.9% -1.20
FF (Four-seam Fastball) 91.5 (92.9) -4.01 10.17 54 38 / 70.4% 25 / 46.3% 4 / 7.4% 14 (3) 24 / 60.0% 0.26
CH (Changeup) 81.9 (83.2) -9.60 7.74 25 12 / 48.0% 9 / 36.0% 3 / 12.0% 2 (0) 10 / 43.5% -1.17
CU (Curveball) 76.9 (78.3) 4.96 -7.50 19 12 / 63.2% 6 / 31.6% 2 / 10.5% 2 (0) 10 / 58.8% -1.17

For a pitcher who doesn’t generate many swings and misses… Anderson did not outperform his season totals last night. Usually the changeup is his bread and butter pitch to generate whiffs. Before last night, in every start this season it induced the most or tied for the most misses. Last night, the four-seam fastball took over. And neither were impressive totals, with the changeup well below his season average of 18.84 percent.

One interesting note on his pitch selection is the huge increase in four seam fastballs. Coming into the game, Anderson had been throwing them 32.51 percent of the time. However, he upped that usage to 49 percent, continuing a trend which began last game, where the usage was 58.11 percent. Correspondingly, he’s dropped his sinker (two seam fastball) usage well below his season average of 19.38 percent, which has been dragged down by those past two games. Anderson now has eight starts on the season. In the four where he threw the sinker an above average percentage, he’s been drilled for 24 runs in 18.1 innings and the Brewers lost every game. In those other four starts: 25.2 innings, eight runs allowed, and three Brewers wins. Maybe he’s found the key.

Coming Up Next:

In the second game of the series tonight against the Cubs, Jimmy Nelson will start for Milwaukee. His last game against San Diego was his strongest start of the season: 8.0 innings, two runs and five strikeouts. The Cubs lineup may be slightly more difficult. For Chicago, John Lackey will take the hill. He is also coming off his best start of the season, which also happened to be against San Diego. It must be something in the water there. Lackey pitched 8.0 innings, allowing one run and striking out seven. First pitch is 7:10 PM CST from Miller Park.

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