In a marathon affair lasting 13 innings, the Cubs beat the Brewers 2-1.
Top Play (WPA):
It will come as no surprise that the most impactful play from Wednesday’s game was the walk to Travis Wood with the bases loaded and two outs in the top of the thirteenth. After struggling with his command all morning, Carlos Torres simply couldn’t find the strike zone against the opposing pitcher and walked in the go-ahead run (+.315).
Ben Zobrist led off the inning with a single up the middle, and Torres followed that by hitting Tommy La Stella. He would proceed to strike out Addison Russell, but not before running the count full and generally looking like he had no real idea where the ball was going.
Bottom Play (WPA):
There are certainly quite a few contenders for this honor, particularly on the Brewers’ side, but the one that stands out by WPA is Chris Carter’s strikeout in the thirteenth with the tying run on third base and one out. After Jonathan Villar led off with a line drive double, Scooter Gennett wasted two strikes trying and failing to bunt. It was generally a waste of an at bat; the team had struggled all night to actually drive runs in (notably in the inning before), and Gennett seemed to be trying to bunt for a hit anyway rather than sacrifice.
On the surface, it was also partially defensible. Runs are hard to come by in general, and bunting the tying run to third base with less than two outs in extra innings seems as good a time as any to bunt. However, with Jonathan Lucroy and then Chris Carter’s massive strikeout rate on deck behind Gennett, sacrificing outs to give someone an opportunity to put the ball in play was simply a mistake. And, to rub the Brewers’ faces in it all, a wild pitch sent Villar to third during Lucroy’s at bat anyway, giving the middle of the Brewers’ lineup a golden opportunity.
Lucroy would force a walk, thereby putting the potential winning run on base, but Carter squandered the golden opportunity. After laying off a few sliders in the dirt with two strikes, Carter was frozen by what was actually quite a good pitch from Cubs reliever Neil Ramirez, who followed his spiked sliders with a fastball at the knees that Carter simply couldn’t offer at (-.259).
Key Performance:
Jimmy Nelson righted the ship slightly in Wednesday’s outing. After a rough start to the year that included a 4.84 FIP and a 4.33 DRA, Nelson threw 7.1 shutout innings that included five strikeouts and just five hits. He did walk four batters, but his 2:1 strike to ball ratio demonstrates that he was generally around the zone all night.
As Nelson is a ground ball pitcher (32nd in the majors in ground ball rate), his overall performance can be dependent on his defense, and on Wednesday, everything found a glove. He was in fact able to keep the ball on the ground well, as evidenced by his seven ground ball outs and just two fly ball outs. One of his issues this year has been a career high fly ball rate–which has led to a career high home run rate–but this was not in evidence on Wednesday.
Trend to Watch:
Jonathan Villar has been surprisingly good this year, for someone who I continue to believe was acquired to just be a stopgap for Orlando Arcia. His .286/.387/.383 line is good for a .277 TAv, which is solidly above average and certainly competent enough for a major league shortstop. Through a month and a half of the season, Villar has been worth 0.5 WARP. Extrapolated over the course of the season, that’s two wins above replacement, which is average and good enough for a starting shortstop on a team in the Brewers’ position. He isn’t a star by any means, but he isn’t performing so terribly that the club will be forced to call up Arcia before they want to.