In a battle of two 23-year-old rookies, the outcome eventually came down to the bullpen, and although the Brewers cracked first, they’d get the last laugh — and the series split.
Worst Play: Zach Davies blanked the Cards through seven innings, scattering four hits and a walk in that span. Thanks to a first-inning sacrifice fly from Chris Carter, Davies’s efforts put the Brewers ahead 1-0. But the fifth hit he allowed would prove costly. After looking over a first-pitch ball, Matt Carpenter smoked a changeup over the head of Kirk Nieuwenhuis in right. He’d end up at second base with a double.
Carpenter’s two-bagger (-.177) put the tying run in scoring position with a mere six outs to go. That didn’t do wonders for the Brewers’ chances, which dropped from 71.5 percent to 53.9 percent. While the next two batters wouldn’t reach base, they each managed to advance Carpenter 90 feet. When he crossed the plate and knotted the score at 1, the Brewers’ win probability stood at 47.6 percent.
This blemish on Davies’ record shouldn’t detract from his superb performance. He racked up seven strikeouts against the Cardinals, the sixth time this season he’s reached that mark, and as noted above, he issued a lone walk. The persistent absence of ground balls — only a third of the balls in play against him on Sunday stayed out of the air — might cause some alarm, but with those defense-independent outcomes backing him up, Davies should fare well regardless of the defense behind him.
Best Play: Once Tyler Thornburg closed out the eighth inning, the Brewers found themselves staring down Kevin Siegrist in the ninth. Although the high-octane lefty brought a 2.85 ERA into the game, his peripherals didn’t back that up — his DRA languished at a mediocre 4.42. Ryan Braun happily acted as the equalizer, launching a full-count fastball into the stands in center field.
Braun’s round-tripper (+.390) shattered the brief tie, giving the Brewers a 2-1 advantage. In turn, their win probability spiked from 44.4 percent to 83.4 percent, the highest level of the day. From there on out, every hitter to step in — two of them from Milwaukee, three from St. Louis — would go down on strikes, to seal up the victory for the Brew Crew.
In the first season of his five-year pact with the Brewers, Braun has seen his name come up in trade rumor after trade rumor. Luckily for the team, all the chatter hasn’t impacted his bat. With Sunday’s dinger on his ledger, he’s hit .310/.371/.545 on the year, which — despite falling a bit shy of his glory-days standards — makes him one of the more imposing hitters in baseball. If David Stearns deals him this winter, he should reel in a big return; if not, Braun should continue mashing for the next successful Brewers squad.
Trend to Watch: While he allowed the tying run to score and thus blew the save, Thornburg retired all five batters he faced on Sunday, three of them on strikeouts. This continues an impressive streak for him: He hasn’t given up an earned run since July 28th against the Diamondbacks. Over that month-plus, he’s compiled 1.82 innings of two-hit, six walk ball; he’s struck out an even 33.3 percent of opponents.
To keep runners off the bases and keep runs off the board, Thornburg has gone back to his roots, re-embracing his heater:
Prior to this hot streak, Thornburg’s four-seam fastball made up 63.6 percent of his pitches. Since July 30th, though, its usage rate has spiked to 75.5 percent, taking the place of his curveball and changeup. The four-seamer has absolutely blown hitters away this season, with a 67.3 percent strike rate and 12.2 percent whiff rate; Thornburg has evidently realized this and decided to rely on it more.
Thornburg will sacrifice a run eventually — he’s a human, like the rest of us, albeit one very adept at throwing a baseball. But he shouldn’t fall off too hard, and if this approach keeps working, he might keep up this roll for a little while longer. The post-Jeffress/Smith Brewers would certainly welcome another ace reliever.
Up Next: The Cubs/Cardinals gauntlet has ended, for now. The Brewers head to Cincinnati for the battle of the NL Central cellar dwellers. All three games will take place at 6:10 CST; Wily Peralta, Matt Garza and Junior Guerra will take the hill against Keyvius Sampson, Anthony DeSclafani, and Tim Adleman, respectively. After taking two of three from Chicago and splitting the four-game set with St. Louis, the Brewers will try to dispose of Cincinnati as smoothly as possible.