TOP PLAY (WPA)
With two outs in the fourth inning, Kyle Lohse served up a 3-0 fastball on a plate to Brandon Crawford, who absolutely crushed a two-run shot to deep right-center field. The blast put the Giants up 3-0 and placed them in control of the whole game (+.189 WPA).
The home-run pitch serves as a reminder that big-league hurlers can never relax on the mound. Lohse fell behind Crawford in the count and simply tried to groove a get-me-over fastball to avoid a four-pitch walk. In the vast majority of situations, hitters will not swing in a 3-0 count — sometimes called the 3-0 auto-strike — but Crawford already had a home run in a similar situation this year. In fact, coming into the game, the Giants’ shortstop was hitting 1.000 in 3-0 counts in 2015.
The kicker, though, is that Crawford had only put a ball in play in a 3-0 count twice in 2015. The likelihood that he was ready to attack Lohse in that situation was extraordinarily low, given his past numbers. Still, Lohse lost his concentration and thought it was a situation in which he’d get a free strike, and he grooved one. Crawford made him pay for the mental lapse and crushed one 411 feet into the deepest part of AT&T Park.
It’s often said that the most difficult aspect of professional sports is the mental grind. Players, no matter the sport, cannot relax or put themselves on autopilot. When they do that, things like a two-run homer from Brandon Crawford will happen.
BOTTOM PLAY (WPA)
The Brewers trailed by two runs in the top of the ninth inning, when Carlos Gomez got caught stealing at second base. It eliminated the scoring threat and effectively killed any rally the Brewers attempted to put together against closer Sergio Romo (-.104 WPA).
It’s a difficult play to swallow in many aspects. First of all, as Craig Counsell mentioned after the game, Gomez cannot get thrown out in that situation. The Brewers were down more than one run. Advancing to second base with nobody out does break up the double-play possibility; however, it doesn’t meaningfully increase the team’s odds of scoring two runs — only a 0.88 run expectancy to a 1.13 run expectancy. Thus, Gomez’s choice to steal second base added more risk than benefit, and the team ultimately paid the price.
At the same time, Carlos Gomez has stolen 211 bases in his career and has a good feel for what he can and cannot do on the base paths. The Brewers’ center fielder truly got unlucky, which is why he got so upset. He read the pitcher correctly. He got a good jump. He beat the throw to second. His back leg just bounced off the ground and into the defender’s glove, just as the baseball arrived. It proved to be a fluke scenario that cost Gomez the steal.
In this way, it’s a difficult play to analyze or fault anyone. Gomez probably shouldn’t have been stealing second base, given the situation. However, I think players should have the freedom to use their instincts and be aggressive, taking bases when possible. Gomez read the situation perfectly and the baseball arrived late. It just happened to arrive in the exact right place for Gomez’s back leg to bounce off the ground and into the defender’s glove. Chalk it up to poor luck or a freak coincidence.
KEY MOMENT
Perhaps this isn’t a key moment of the game, but the continued quality performance by several key trade chips does represent a key storyline of the game.
Gerardo Parra went 1-for-2 with a pair of walks and a run scored. He’s been brilliant over the last few months. He scuffled throughout the month of April — as did most Brewers’ players — but has hit .339/.385/.533 with 17 doubles, three triples, and nine homers since the beginning of May. That’s a .918 OPS. Just to place it into context, only four qualified outfieders (Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, and Nelson Cruz) have higher OPS numbers in 2015. One may fairly question whether Parra can continue this level of performance through the remainder of the season, but one cannot argue with the premise that he’s been amongst the league’s best over the past three months.
Left-hander Neal Cotts frustrated many with a couple poor outings in April and early-May. However, over his last 24 outings, he has posted a 1.14 ERA over 23.2 innings, striking out over a batter per inning and holding opposing hitters to a mere .217 batting average. For contending teams looking for a quality southpaw coming out of the bullpen, he’s holding lefties to a .190/.224/.286 slash line on the season. He shouldn’t face righties, if possible, but he’s been absolutely tremendous as a left-handed specialist in 2015. That’s a valuable commodity for contending teams.
TREND TO WATCH
The Milwaukee Brewers grounded into three double plays on Monday evening, all of which significantly hurt the team’s win probability. Lucroy grounded into a heartbreaker in the third inning, wiping out a tie-game situation in which the Brewers had two on and only one out. In the first inning, Gomez erased an early baserunner with a one-out double play to end the inning. Finally, Hernan Perez ended a threat in the fifth with another one-out double play.
While frustrating, none of this is particularly unlikely. Right-hander Chris Heston boasts a 56.5 percent ground-ball rate and lives off guys pounding the baseball into the dirt. He induces a double play 1.6 times per nine innings, which is the second-base mark amongst qualified starters in 2015. Thus, much like Jimmy Nelson and Taylor Jungmann, the Giants’ starter walks this tightrope quite often, allowing baserunners only to erase them with a myriad of double plays.
Furthermore, the Milwaukee Brewers have a penchant for the double-play ball. They have grounded into more double plays than any team in the National League.
| Team | GIDP |
|---|---|
| Brewers | 87 |
| Dodgers | 85 |
| Braves | 85 |
| Giants | 84 |
| Mets | 80 |
| Cardinals | 77 |
The squad faced an extreme ground-ball pitcher and has grounded into more double plays than any team in the National League. Brewers’ fans should have probably foreseen the likelihood that they’d erase a few threats throughout the contest.
COMING UP NEXT
Right-hander Wily Peralta thankfully makes his return from the disabled list on Tuesday evening, as he’ll square off against righty Matt Cain. Peralta hasn’t pitched a big-league game since May 22 against the Braves, where he only went four innings before exiting with a strained oblique muscle, but has tossed a trio of rehab appearances in the minors this month.
Similarly, this will only be Matt Cain’s fifth start of the 2015 season. He missed the first few months of the season with an elbow strain. His average velocity on his pitches is down a mile per hour across the board — so one wonders how healthy Cain truly is — but is coming off a performance against the Giants in which he allowed only one run over six innings.
Cain has proven to be home-run prone over the last three seasons, and that remains true in 2015. He’s allowed four homers in his four starts. Perhaps that will prove helpful to the Milwaukee Brewers, who will look to score more than three runs for the first time since last Wednesday.
First pitch will be at 9:15 pm CT.