The Tale of Scooter

As the season moves into the last few weeks, the Milwaukee brass should be in the process of evaluating every player in the organization and making determinations on whether players can be contributing members to the next contending Brewers teams. Today, I’ll take a look at Scooter Gennett’s past, present, and future as a Milwaukee Brewer. Be forewarned, though: I promise not to use the terms diminutive, gritty, or scrappy.

Scooter Gennett was a 16th-round pick out of high school with an attractive collegiate commitment to Florida State. While he displayed obvious bat skills, his size lowered projections, which would be a recurring theme for the player during his development. He appeared on three Baseball Prospectus Top-10 Prospect lists for the Brewers, coming in at 7th, 6th, and 10th. It should be noted that Kevin Goldstein was higher on Gennett’s future than Jason Parks.

While acknowledging the small frame, Goldstein saw him as a three-star prospect in 2010 and 2011, calling him “the best pure hitter in the system” and noting that he had “impressive power for his size.” His defense never produced any glowing remarks. He was considered average to “sloppy,” and he had no future at a position other than second base. Parks saw Gennett as a second-division player, rating his tools as average across the board, with nothing plus.

After strong numbers in the minors, Gennett was called up in 2013 to platoon with a struggling Rickie Weeks. To date, his 2013 season has been Gennett’s best performance in the big leagues. He posted a TAv of .308 and his defense was only slightly below average according to FRAA (-2.8). However, he displayed trademark impatience: his walk percentage was only 4.4 percent, he swung at over 55 percent of pitches he faced, and less than half of pitches he received were in the strike zone (48.89 percent). It also should be noted that his BABIP was .380 when the NL average for that season was .297.

Those numbers came in only 69 games and predominantly against right-handed pitching. All of his extra-base hits came against righties and his on-base percentage was .395. When facing lefties, he struck out in 13 of 41 plate appearances and didn’t take a single walk.

In 2014, while he started 110 games and logged 474 plate appearances, the Brewers once again protected him from facing lefties. Only 42 of his plate appearances came against southpaws, and he did not start a single game against a lefty. Unfortunately, his BABIP dropped to a merely above-average .321, which lowered his OBP to .320 and his TAv to .271. His defense also rated as below average, pulling down his WARP to 0.5.

The current season has seen a turn for the worse. Gennett’s TAv has dipped again to .236. His OBP is now below .300 and his BABIP is .299. Between an injury and poor hitting, he was demoted to Triple-A for three weeks earlier this year. His futility against lefties this year has been no surprise, but it’s his relative struggles against righties which has hurt his value. He’s pulling a career high 38.2 percent of balls that he’s put in play and his ground-ball percentage is also a career high at 45.3 percent. His ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio has risen to 1.37, and he’s hitting fewer line drives than ever at 21.5 percent.

Gennett’s aggressive approach may be the cause of his struggles. While pitchers still throw slightly below half of their pitches to him in the strike zone, Scooter has swung at a career high 44.6 percent of pitches outside the zone. He doesn’t have the strength to drive such pitches, so while he can usually make contact, it’s weaker than normal.

Though he’s still only 25, based his on pedigree, size, and results, Scooter Gennett is not a future star, nor should the Brewers expect him to develop into one. But while the total package may not be sexy, Gennett can play and be a useful contributor to a contending team. His defense has generally been around average, as advertised. He mans the strong side of the platoon, and has shown an above-average ability to hit righties with some pop.

If he could further refine his batting eye, then he could reverse the slide his numbers have taken recently. He’ll never be an on-base machine; he just needs to make better contact, which he’s shown he’s capable of doing. He’s not a franchise cornerstone, but as Milwaukee looks to build the next playoff contender, Gennett also doesn’t represent a necessary upgrade so long as the team around him is strong.