Pricing Lucroy Trade Value

It has been my intuition that trading Jonathan Lucroy will be more difficult than many people believe. This intuition stems from Lucroy’s value, which is nearly prohibitive: Lucroy is such an elite catcher, in terms of both offensive and defensive production, that the Brewers can arguably seek an elite package in return. Three of the contending teams (or expected contenders, anyway) that could potentially use a boost at catcher also reside within the NL Central division, narrowing the pack of potential trading partners (and potential trading partners with relatively strong farm systems). Several contending clubs that need catching help also have suspect farm systems, leading one to further narrow the potential market for Lucroy. Furthermore, given that the Brewers can enact an option on Lucroy, this summer is merely one of three remaining windows to potentially trade the catcher. Milwaukee can truly set a value for Lucroy, create a market, and make the best possible decision.

My own intuition could be wrong, and many around baseball suspect that the Brewers will indeed trade Lucroy this summer. So, to combat some of my own blindspots about Lucroy, I scavenged BaseballProspectus Top 10 rankings, isolated the top five prospects in 16 contending/near-contending teams, and collected each prospect’s potential future role and each prospect’s best tool (or tools, when multiple tools received a top grade). The brief summary of this study is that there indeed strong tools to be found throughout good and bad contending farm systems alike, and that there are also plenty of prospects with above-average potential roles throughout these systems. One must question, then, whether and how Milwaukee will be able to build a trade market involving these prospects, and also how depth players and MLB-ready players will also sweeten deals.

One of the benefits of a hot Lucroy is that the Brewers catcher improves nearly every playoff contender. So, theoretically, throwing aside contractual situations within each organization, 14-15 MLB teams could look to Lucroy to improve their club. However, inserting context back into the picture, MLB catcher has been such a weak position that a strong majority of playoff clubs are already receiving better than median production at the catcher position. This means each contending club must weigh the marginal impact of Lucroy (above their current catching production) against the future value of their prospects included in a trade:

Fortunately for the Brewers, at least one of the sub-median catching teams features a notably above average farm system (Boston). The Rangers and Dodgers could also conceivably put together elite trade packages for Lucroy, suggesting that there could be a “strong market” comprising at least three strong farm system teams with a strong-to-moderate need for catching help. it is worth digging into each organization’s farm system, however, for even Cleveland, Toronto, and the Mets have some top prospects that project as above average MLB players. The question with these organizations, then, would be whether the Brewers can obtain the quality depth that would make a Lucroy trade worthwhile. (For Milwaukee is not necessarily trading Lucroy for one good prospect, since Lucroy may be the type of player that can yield a good prospect and “interesting depth.” Here, consider Adrian Houser and Josh Hader as examples of “interesting depth,” as both are pitchers that may potentially start (but could be solid relievers), and one (Hader) was a rising prospect when traded).

[It must be stated, too, that fans must look past prospect rankings in judging a trade. Scouting profiles matter much more, as well as a prospect’s position in the minors (did they advance beyond A-ball, for instance? Are they rising, or falling? What is the risk?). So, in a sense, even judging the Top 80 prospects among the major MLB contenders is short-sighted on my part.]

Judging MLB contending systems by their BP prospect grades shows the benefit of contending with a good system: there are several teams that could conceivably trade for Lucroy without exhausting their better-than-average system potential. This is also why trading with a team like Boston would be preferable to a team like Baltimore or Toronto; the Brewers can push tougher negotiations with the Red Sox since Boston has more above-average potential to trade. The Orioles and Blue Jays would have to make a much tougher decision to part with their top talent:

It is also worth itemizing the top tool for each prospect ranking. For it will certainly matter whether the Brewers can trade for top grade power, as opposed to say top grade speed, glove, etc. Does a pitching prospect have a strong fastball, or strong command? Of course, it also matters how several other tools grade out behind each prospect’s top tool; this is simply an exercise to demonstrate just how varied top tools can be:

There are ultimately strong tools that the Brewers can find throughout many contending systems should they choose to trade Lucroy, but the ultimate value of those tools will be strengthened by each player’s potential role and their strengths that extend beyond their top tools. While it is difficult to speculate on the type of return Lucroy could provide for Milwaukee, since teams will undoubtedly offer varying ranges of system depth and MLB talent (cf. the Mets vs. the Astros for Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gomez & Mike Fiers in July 2015), these charts should show that there are plenty of ways for the Brewers to obtain strong tools and roles in a Lucroy trade. If this exercise shows anything to Brewers fans, it is that the front office will have their work cut out to find the right top prospect in a trade return, as well as intriguing depth returns. The only question that remains is how badly MLB contenders will fight for an elite catcher.