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The Mistaken Rebuild

Since the Brewers entered 2016 with the “Rebuilding” tag on their uniform, many fans and analysts expected a poor showing from the club, and many categories match that expectation. For instance, the offense was particularly below average in 2016, despite the mention of improved discipline or new plate approaches from the team. At the same time, the pitching was solidly average for the 2016 National League and Miller Park environment, meaning that even with one of the worst offenses in the league Milwaukee still ranks closer to the middle of the league than the bottom. At -48 total runs (-55 RS / +7 RA), the Brewers are within approximately five wins of .500 (or, approximately, a 50 run improvement), and they are not far behind the Pirates (-22), Marlins (-14), or Rockies (-8).

2016 NL Total RS RA 2015 2014 Improvement 3-Yr Improvement
Cubs 246 103 143 30 / 67 -45 / -33 149 (+73 / +76) 320
Nationals 151 37 114 11 / 61 21 / 112 79 (+26 / +53) 95
Dodgers 86 49 37 28 / 53 104 / -1 5 (+21 / -16) 14
Giants 83 3 80 50 / 28 57 / -5 5 (-47 / +52) 146
Cardinals 66 67 -1 -25 / 157 -27 / 45 -66 (+92 / -158) -124
Mets 53 -41 94 50 / 28 28 / -2 -25 (-91 / +66) 106
Rockies -8 3 -11 -55 / -33 13 / -60 80 (+58 / +22) 26
Marlins -14 -21 7 -40 / -3 -8 / 0 29 (+19 / +10) 106
Pirates -22 10 -32 38 / 72 55 / -2 -132 (-28 / -104) -127
Brewers -48 -55 7 -17 / -42 -3 / 10 11 (-38 / +49) -8
Padres -77 -11 -66 31 / -97 -47 / 13 -11 (-42 / +31) Even
Braves -116 -56 -60 -60 / -106 -71 / 38 54 (+4 / +50) -235
Reds -124 -10 -114 -25 / -66 -32 / 22 -114 (+22 / -136) -314
Diamondbacks -131 -3 -128 35 / -4 -38 / -75 -162 (-38 / -124) -127
Phillies -165 -88 -77 -40 / -120 -21 / -33 -5 (-48 / +43) -39

Notably, the hideous National League competitive environment provides a veritable canyon between the sixth-best Mets (53 total runs above average) and seventh best Rockies (-8). Yet, the Braves, Rockies, Nationals, and Cubs each improved by 50 runs or more (in some cases much, much, more) in 2016, so such an improvement should not be viewed as outlandish within one year. Milwaukee absolutely can and should make up serious ground within the NL in just one year. The Brewers already improved by 11 total runs in 2016, which is an incremental step in the right direction, and one that hopefully sows a much larger improvement for 2017.

Interestingly enough, the Brewers’ improvement was quite good: their 11 total runs improvement places them sixth in a 2016 NL that saw reeling seasons by the Mets, Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, and Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks’ fall is astonishing, given that their club was the most improved unit in the 2015 NL. So, it is worth stating that gigantic improvements are not always sustainable, or even pointing a club in the proper direction. This rather calls into question the linear assumptions behind a rebuilding campaign; good and bad teams alike can improve by 80 runs (the Rockies) or decline by more than 100 runs (Pirates, Diamondbacks). For all we know, the Brewers might improve by 100 runs next year, only to fall back 60 in 2018, and improve by 10 in 2019; there’s no way to categorically, necessarily align a specific roster with a specific run-based performance, and certainly not a linear performance over time.

2016 Improvements Total RS RA 2015 2014 Improvement 3-Yr Improvement
Cubs 246 103 143 30 / 67 -45 / -33 149 (+73 / +76) 320
Rockies -8 3 -11 -55 / -33 13 / -60 80 (+58 / +22) 26
Nationals 151 37 114 11 / 61 21 / 112 79 (+26 / +53) 95
Braves -116 -56 -60 -60 / -106 -71 / 38 54 (+4 / +50) -235
Marlins -14 -21 7 -40 / -3 -8 / 0 29 (+19 / +10) 106
Brewers -48 -55 7 -17 / -42 -3 / 10 11 (-38 / +49) -8
Dodgers 86 49 37 28 / 53 104 / -1 5 (+21 / -16) 14
Giants 83 3 80 50 / 28 57 / -5 5 (-47 / +52) 146
Phillies -165 -88 -77 -40 / -120 -21 / -33 -5 (-48 / +43) -39
Padres -77 -11 -66 31 / -97 -47 / 13 -11 (-42 / +31) Even
Mets 53 -41 94 50 / 28 28 / -2 -25 (-91 / +66) 106
Cardinals 66 67 -1 -25 / 157 -27 / 45 -66 (+92 / -158) -124
Reds -124 -10 -114 -25 / -66 -32 / 22 -114 (+22 / -136) -314
Pirates -22 10 -32 38 / 72 55 / -2 -132 (-28 / -104) -127
Diamondbacks -131 -3 -128 35 / -4 -38 / -75 -162 (-38 / -124) -127

In such a weak league, the Brewers’ lack of MLB payroll spending in 2016 looks particularly problematic. If they improved 11 runs with this roster, how many runs could they have improved if they held off on certain trades? What could have some efficient contracts, or even some large contracts, netted the team? Perhaps those moves would not have allowed other successes on the 2016 roster to occur. Anyway, the Brewers improved in a bad league, which is frustrating in and of itself, and even more frustrating because they left the resources for further improving the club sitting in the bank.


In terms of the long-term environment, the Brewers’ roster building efforts under President Doug Melvin and GM David Stearns look even worse: their entire division has been shifting south, save for the Cubs, and the Brewers simply “held steady” in a relatively conservative win-now posture, and now perhaps a misguided rebuilding effort.

3-Yr Improvements Total RS RA 2015 2014 Improvement 3-Yr Improvement
Cubs 246 103 143 30 / 67 -45 / -33 149 (+73 / +76) 320
Giants 83 3 80 50 / 28 57 / -5 5 (-47 / +52) 146
Mets 53 -41 94 50 / 28 28 / -2 -25 (-91 / +66) 106
Marlins -14 -21 7 -40 / -3 -8 / 0 29 (+19 / +10) 106
Nationals 151 37 114 11 / 61 21 / 112 79 (+26 / +53) 95
Rockies -8 3 -11 -55 / -33 13 / -60 80 (+58 / +22) 26
Dodgers 86 49 37 28 / 53 104 / -1 5 (+21 / -16) 14
Padres -77 -11 -66 31 / -97 -47 / 13 -11 (-42 / +31) Even
Brewers -48 -55 7 -17 / -42 -3 / 10 11 (-38 / +49) -8
Phillies -165 -88 -77 -40 / -120 -21 / -33 -5 (-48 / +43) -39
Cardinals 66 67 -1 -25 / 157 -27 / 45 -66 (+92 / -158) -124
Pirates -22 10 -32 38 / 72 55 / -2 -132 (-28 / -104) -127
Diamondbacks -131 -3 -128 35 / -4 -38 / -75 -162 (-38 / -124) -127
Braves -116 -56 -60 -60 / -106 -71 / 38 54 (+4 / +50) -235
Reds -124 -10 -114 -25 / -66 -32 / 22 -114 (+22 / -136) -314

Basically, from 2014 through 2016, there were at least 974 runs up for grabs, in terms of seven National League teams declining. Notably, the league on the whole was inefficient in maximizing on those declining performances, as the seven improving teams only added 813 total runs against their respective parks over this timeframe (sending approximately 17 percent of this fluctuation to the superior American League). This means, overall, that enough personnel and performance fluctuations occurred to place nearly 180 team wins up for grabs throughout the NL.

Even if one wants to argue that the Brewers could not have possibly competed with the Cubs, Giants, Mets, Marlins, Nationals, Rockies, and Dodgers over the last three years, there remains those 161 free runs between the improving and declining clubs (974 declining runs versus 813 improving runs). 161 total runs remained in the balance for National League clubs, and most of them failed to capitalize on those runs for their ballclubs. For the Brewers, this inefficient mistake literally equals the difference between making the playoffs — and thereby earning additional revenue that could be worth as much as 20 percent of their payroll capacity — and missing the playoffs (let alone crashing into a rebuild).

Worse still, after the failure to win now in 2014 and 2015, the Brewers decided to take their foot off the accelerator in the very season that the Cardinals and Pirates significantly declined. This is the best possible argument in favor of simply, aggressively putting the best team on the field each year: even your expected, daunting competition may not end up so great. Alongside the Brewers’ 2014 collapse, dreadful 2015 effort, and 2016 anti-competitive effort, the Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals left a 565 run vaccuum within the division — if ever there was a time for a small market team to climb in the NL Central, it would have been over the last three years, and especially 2016 (Pirates fans should be furious about this, even more than Brewers fans: their favorite team severely miscalculated their contending efforts and also arguably came up short in the transactions department to improve their roster, resulting in a five year rebuild that has netted only three winning years).

Now, the Pirates and Cardinals have time to retool their own rosters, and the Brewers lost three solid opportunities to field a competitive or better team; so it goes, but the best argument against rebuilding is the swirling development of runs scored and runs allowed throughout the National League. The “unexpected” is one of the only principles that categorically guides a 162-game season: to fail to capitalize on the principle of the unexpected in one season is maddening, and over three seasons that failure is downright unconscionable. Milwaukee exhibited terrible timing and short-sighted roster construction over the last three years, and it’s a great demonstration of how “win now” or “rebuild” labels can ruin a club; the Brewers have simply failed to interpret the league environment, a total failure of imagination in the front office, and that goes beyond any labels: they have simply not fielded the best club possible in a declining NL environment.

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